Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At the moment (0043 GMT) punters think that the LDs will win

SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited December 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At the moment (0043 GMT) punters think that the LDs will win

Markets stabilising (for now) giving #SarahOlney a 75% chance of victory. #RichmondPark by-election https://t.co/LidXUB3ynz pic.twitter.com/c5Um8xrhu3

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Deja vu
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Zac's coming in big now, down sub 2.5. I had backed him at 4
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    This thread could very quickly become out of date... I really should just sleep instead of getting myself up worked and nervous.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Excellent timing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Silly, silly Zac...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    The two candidates' odds are slowly converging again
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    Pauly said:

    This thread could very quickly become out of date... I really should just sleep instead of getting myself up worked and nervous.

    Indeed this is a useless thread, Goldsmith might take a lead again at any moment.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Zac's coming in big now, down sub 2.5. I had backed him at 4

    That picture on the last thread is the reason. If we get to see other tables and his pile is higher then he probably has done it. 4 was good value.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited December 2016
    Crossover within 2 minutes from now?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,931
    Shades of Dunfermline West, 2006?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Punters. Dumber than pundits? pundits dumber than public? Dumber than PBers?

    I'm going to bed, too tired even with the hint maybe it won't be a predictable result. If I wake up and zac wins by 3k, I'll be pissed now,after this tease.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    BBC report: turnout 54% in Richmond.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    The candidates
    Receive updates on this story - turn on
    Show
    44s ago
    00:48
    Lib Dems heading for a majority of more than 2,000, Labour sources say

    Labour think the Lib Dems are on course to win with a majority of more than 2,000.

    From what they have seen of the ballot papers coming out of the boxes, they think the Lib Dems are getting 55% of the vote, and Zac Goldsmith 39%. These figures do not include postal votes, which should be skewed towards Goldsmith a bit, but Labour think it is very, very hard to see the Lib Dems losing. Sarah Olney should have a majority of between 2,000 and 4,000, they say.

    They also believe it will be touch and go as to whether Labour’s Christian Wolmar loses his deposit.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Paristonda said:

    The candidates
    Receive updates on this story - turn on
    Show
    44s ago
    00:48
    Lib Dems heading for a majority of more than 2,000, Labour sources say

    Labour think the Lib Dems are on course to win with a majority of more than 2,000.

    From what they have seen of the ballot papers coming out of the boxes, they think the Lib Dems are getting 55% of the vote, and Zac Goldsmith 39%. These figures do not include postal votes, which should be skewed towards Goldsmith a bit, but Labour think it is very, very hard to see the Lib Dems losing. Sarah Olney should have a majority of between 2,000 and 4,000, they say.

    They also believe it will be touch and go as to whether Labour’s Christian Wolmar loses his deposit.

    From Guardian liveblog
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    I think it's the picture - people think that they're the piles of all the votes.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    Can someone photograph another table?

    Zac looks clearly ahead in the photo - not massively, but still significantly - maybe about 53/47?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Zac's coming in big now, down sub 2.5. I had backed him at 4

    That picture on the last thread is the reason. If we get to see other tables and his pile is higher then he probably has done it. 4 was good value.
    Faisal Islam really has moved the betting markets tonight.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    I think it's the picture - people think that they're the piles of all the votes.

    Punters really do cling to any information, not matter how unreliable, don't they.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    Paristonda said:

    Paristonda said:

    The candidates
    Receive updates on this story - turn on
    Show
    44s ago
    00:48
    Lib Dems heading for a majority of more than 2,000, Labour sources say

    Labour think the Lib Dems are on course to win with a majority of more than 2,000.

    From what they have seen of the ballot papers coming out of the boxes, they think the Lib Dems are getting 55% of the vote, and Zac Goldsmith 39%. These figures do not include postal votes, which should be skewed towards Goldsmith a bit, but Labour think it is very, very hard to see the Lib Dems losing. Sarah Olney should have a majority of between 2,000 and 4,000, they say.

    They also believe it will be touch and go as to whether Labour’s Christian Wolmar loses his deposit.

    From Guardian liveblog
    and the postal votes are not usually dramatically different from those in the box, despite what people like to think. Slightly different, sometimes, but not hugely so.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    AndyJS said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think it's the picture - people think that they're the piles of all the votes.

    Punters really do cling to any information, not matter how unreliable, don't they.
    Reminds me of the financial markets going up and down on Brexit night every time Dimbleby and Curtice started on about all the London remain votes still to come
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    IanB2 said:

    Paristonda said:

    Paristonda said:

    The candidates
    Receive updates on this story - turn on
    Show
    44s ago
    00:48
    Lib Dems heading for a majority of more than 2,000, Labour sources say

    Labour think the Lib Dems are on course to win with a majority of more than 2,000.

    From what they have seen of the ballot papers coming out of the boxes, they think the Lib Dems are getting 55% of the vote, and Zac Goldsmith 39%. These figures do not include postal votes, which should be skewed towards Goldsmith a bit, but Labour think it is very, very hard to see the Lib Dems losing. Sarah Olney should have a majority of between 2,000 and 4,000, they say.

    They also believe it will be touch and go as to whether Labour’s Christian Wolmar loses his deposit.

    From Guardian liveblog
    and the postal votes are not usually dramatically different from those in the box, despite what people like to think. Slightly different, sometimes, but not hugely so.
    They were for the referendum. Enough that a remain win on polling day wasn't enough to swing the final result.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    LDs back to 1.5.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/804488463672283136
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    A bit odd to leave the piles on the tables around the halls for so long - most ROs like to have all the votes in one place so they can sense check the whole count before moving to a declaration
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016
    SeanT said:

    Ooh. Just sold S K Tremayne's THE FIRE CHILD to British TV while sitting here on my fat smug arse

    Heh.

    Which channel? It's probably secret isn't it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    LDs price crashes to 1.23.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    The Olney way is Up
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    LDs 1.29 Zac back to 4.1 now
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    SeanT said:

    Ooh. Just sold S K Tremayne's THE FIRE CHILD to British TV while sitting here on my fat smug arse

    Heh.

    BBC? They didn't just steal your story?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    Paristonda said:

    Paristonda said:

    The candidates
    Receive updates on this story - turn on
    Show
    44s ago
    00:48
    Lib Dems heading for a majority of more than 2,000, Labour sources say

    Labour think the Lib Dems are on course to win with a majority of more than 2,000.

    From what they have seen of the ballot papers coming out of the boxes, they think the Lib Dems are getting 55% of the vote, and Zac Goldsmith 39%. These figures do not include postal votes, which should be skewed towards Goldsmith a bit, but Labour think it is very, very hard to see the Lib Dems losing. Sarah Olney should have a majority of between 2,000 and 4,000, they say.

    They also believe it will be touch and go as to whether Labour’s Christian Wolmar loses his deposit.

    From Guardian liveblog
    and the postal votes are not usually dramatically different from those in the box, despite what people like to think. Slightly different, sometimes, but not hugely so.
    They were for the referendum. Enough that a remain win on polling day wasn't enough to swing the final result.
    Yes but how reliable is the data - many areas will have no idea
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    MarkSenior said:

    The Olney way is Up

    If she wins and uses that line, with confidence, she deserves to take over from farron.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,886
    Old Etonians showing again in 2016 that they really don't get this politics mullarkey....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited December 2016
    MarqueeMark said:

    Old Etonians showing again in 2016 that they really don't get this politics mullarkey....

    Indeed. Another out of touch posh boy destroys themselves...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    Ooh. Just sold S K Tremayne's THE FIRE CHILD to British TV while sitting here on my fat smug arse

    Heh.

    BBC? They didn't just steal your story?
    Nah. Indie production company that like Cornish stories.

    Not Hollywood money, but nice. Seeing as I did sweet FA to get it, apart from write the book ages ago.
    Congrats
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Zac's price drifting like a punt.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,694
    SeanT said:

    Ooh. Just sold S K Tremayne's THE FIRE CHILD to British TV while sitting here on my fat smug arse

    Heh.

    Congratulations.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    Yes, they think it's all over....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Zac over 5 now.

    Betfair says stick a fork in Zac.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    6 now
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Faisal

    Local Labour sources in #richmondpark tell me that "Zac has lost" according to their sampling model.... more live on @skynews in a mo.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Crazy amounts of money being traded on this Byelection.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    IanB2 said:

    Yes, they think it's all over....

    It is over it seems.

    The Tories are in monumental trouble now.

    Brexit is dead and they will be torn to pieces by UKIP and the LD.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Faisal

    Local Labour sources in #richmondpark tell me that "Zac has lost" according to their sampling model.... more live on @skynews in a mo.

    I would be slightly surprised if Richmond Labour has a well honed sampling model, but there we are..
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    OUT said:

    Zac's price drifting like a punt.

    An insider simile? :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    No 2017 GE then.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Faisal

    Local Labour sources in #richmondpark tell me that "Zac has lost" according to their sampling model.... more live on @skynews in a mo.

    If it's as good as their ground game then who knows...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Faisal

    Local Labour sources in #richmondpark tell me that "Zac has lost" according to their sampling model.... more live on @skynews in a mo.

    Or not ?
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804490903775756288

    This is ridiculous, is there any other journalist on the count or will Faisal determine the Betfair market ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    Zac 3.8
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    LD back out a bit - now 1.25, was well below 1.2.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    No 2017 GE then.

    Soft Brexit won with centrist Labour votes. Election in 2020.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    No 2017 GE then.

    Zac's silly flounce by election shouldn't have a bearing either way...
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Faisal

    Local Labour sources in #richmondpark tell me that "Zac has lost" according to their sampling model.... more live on @skynews in a mo.

    Or not ?
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804490903775756288

    This is ridiculous, is there any other journalist on the count or will Faisal determine the Betfair market ?
    If he's not rich by now he's not trying.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Faisal

    Local Labour sources in #richmondpark tell me that "Zac has lost" according to their sampling model.... more live on @skynews in a mo.

    Or not ?
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804490903775756288

    This is ridiculous, is there any other journalist on the count or will Faisal determine the Betafiar market ?
    He wants to spin this one out too I see.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Pong said:

    Crazy amounts of money being traded on this Byelection.

    All I've managed to do is turn +83 on each of the pair into +55 on betfair :p

    +11 LD/+120 Zac true position.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    edited December 2016
    Note - Faisal refers to desks

    ie He wouldn't have called it based upon desks.

    Presumably he can see all the desks.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    No 2017 GE then.

    Soft Brexit won with centrist Labour votes. Election in 2020.
    The Tories will lose their majority being torn to pieces by UKIP and the LD's.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,709
    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yes, they think it's all over....

    It is over it seems.

    The Tories are in monumental trouble now.

    Brexit is dead and they will be torn to pieces by UKIP and the LD.
    Brexit is dead? Interesting.

    Didn't you similarly declare Trump was dead? ;)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    MikeL said:

    Note - Faisal refers to desks

    ?
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 508
    I've taken the 5 to green out on the Goldie Olney duo. Not sure we should be placing too much faith in the local Labour view...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Note - Faisal refers to desks

    ?
    "Ballot paperson desks" are in favour of Zac, so that one desk might be a representative sample after all.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2016
    If the same amount of money per voter had been bet on the US election on Betfair Exchange, the amount bet on the US election would have been around £960 million, (using current data).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    edited December 2016
    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Note - Faisal refers to desks

    ?
    Have edited post - see below.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I wonder if Sleaford could be a bit more competitive than expected (don't laugh).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MikeL said:

    Note - Faisal refers to desks

    ?
    "Ballot paperson desks" are in favour of Zac, so that one desk might be a representative sample after all.
    Altogether we're looking for the thickness of about 80 packs of A4 paper (slightly more as there will be a bit of air between the papers) - a lot more than were on that table. There will be a geographical bias in any particular table and that could go either way. All we know from that photo is that the LibDems are in contention.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited December 2016
    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yes, they think it's all over....

    It is over it seems.

    The Tories are in monumental trouble now.

    Brexit is dead and they will be torn to pieces by UKIP and the LD.
    Your talking a load of crap. One swallow doesn't make a summer brexit will happen and the tories will win a big majority at the ge. This is a byelection with a crap candidate in a pro-remain constituency. The tories are 16 point lead in polls lib dems are at 7%. Take a reality check
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I love Diane Abbott's sultry whispering tone.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    AndyJS said:

    If the same amount of money per voter had been bet on the US election on Betfair Exchange, the amount bet on the US election would have been around £960 million, (using current data).

    the "matched" figure - i think - includes within it a lot of trading between punters.

    Two punters could theoretically each deposit a tenner and keep trading back and forth at different odds and the amount matched would just keep on going up and up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    "If the Labour sampling models were right, Ed Miliband would be PM by now"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    If the LDs can stop seeming like a joke, it woukd be interesting if their national figures had an uptick, as people at last co sidered them again.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Pulpstar said:

    "If the Labour sampling models were right, Ed Miliband would be PM by now"

    Pulpstar said:

    "If the Labour sampling models were right, Ed Miliband would be PM by now"


    Lol
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    kjohnw said:

    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yes, they think it's all over....

    It is over it seems.

    The Tories are in monumental trouble now.

    Brexit is dead and they will be torn to pieces by UKIP and the LD.
    Your talking a load of crap. One swallow doesn't make a summer brexit will happen and the tories will win a big majority at the ge. This is a byelection with a crap candidate in a pro-remain constituency. The tories are 16 point lead in polls lib dems are at 7%. Take a reality check
    It's not only this by-election.

    If you look at all the recent by-elections both Local and Westminster the last time the LD recorded such swings against the Tories was in the 1990's.

    I have to declare the opinion polls crap again.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Pulpstar said:

    "If the Labour sampling models were right, Ed Miliband would be PM by now"

    As good as their ground game.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    Pulpstar said:

    "If the Labour sampling models were right, Ed Miliband would be PM by now"

    If you've fought an area over several elections, have good canvassing data to know your polling districts, and have taken polling district tallies at counts to verify your data, you can build a good model. For a ward it just takes years of campaigning; a whole constituency adds another layer of complexity and needs an active party over the whole area - such as you get if you are Tory or LibDem in this hard fought marginal.

    The only councillor Labour has is a recent defector - I doubt they have anything like a model at all - just some old bloke who was talking off the top of his head to Mr Islam
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,816
    ZG now has to look to the future and Strictly 2017 to rehabilitate his political career.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    53.6% is decent turnout for a December by-election to be honest.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Speedy said:

    kjohnw said:

    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yes, they think it's all over....

    It is over it seems.

    The Tories are in monumental trouble now.

    Brexit is dead and they will be torn to pieces by UKIP and the LD.
    Your talking a load of crap. One swallow doesn't make a summer brexit will happen and the tories will win a big majority at the ge. This is a byelection with a crap candidate in a pro-remain constituency. The tories are 16 point lead in polls lib dems are at 7%. Take a reality check
    It's not only this by-election.

    If you look at all the by-elections both Local and Westminster the last time the LD recorded such swing against the Tories was in the 1990's.

    I have to declare the opinion polls crap again.
    I don't think it's so much that the polls are "crap", but what people are failing to realise is that a big part of the current Tory poll support is VERY soft. People are for now giving Theresa May the benefit of the doubt (the type of honeymoon that literally EVERY new PM gets, even Gordon Brown), but they're still far from totally sold on the Tories, as shown by the fact they're simply not turning out to vote for the Tories in actual elections.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,813
    edited December 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Punters really do cling to any information, not matter how unreliable, don't they.

    Yes. It's kinda worrying. At this moment all we know is that there are two major candidates and either of them could win. Everything else is speculation or modelling. But even on such paucity of info it's going up and down like a yoyo on a rollercoaster on acid. Wisdom of crowds my arse.

    [edit: fix html]
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    53.6% is decent turnout for a December by-election to be honest.

    Some have mentioned that it's the highest since 1984.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    kjohnw said:

    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yes, they think it's all over....

    It is over it seems.

    The Tories are in monumental trouble now.

    Brexit is dead and they will be torn to pieces by UKIP and the LD.
    Your talking a load of crap. One swallow doesn't make a summer brexit will happen and the tories will win a big majority at the ge. This is a byelection with a crap candidate in a pro-remain constituency. The tories are 16 point lead in polls lib dems are at 7%. Take a reality check
    It's not only this by-election.

    If you look at all the by-elections both Local and Westminster the last time the LD recorded such swing against the Tories was in the 1990's.

    I have to declare the opinion polls crap again.
    I don't think it's so much that the polls are "crap", but what people are failing to realise is that a big part of the current Tory poll support is VERY soft. People are for now giving Theresa May the benefit of the doubt (the type of honeymoon that literally EVERY new PM gets, even Gordon Brown), but they're still far from totally sold on the Tories, as shown by the fact they're simply not turning out to vote for the Tories in actual elections.
    The two stories in town are disaffection with all politics and mistrust of incumbents. That's why predictions that 2020 is all done and dusted may very well be premature.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.

    Also it is obviously going to be close.

    The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    When voters are confronted by the choice between May and Corbyns Labour Party she will win big. Labour are unelectable at the moment the lib dems may win a council seat and by-election or two but at the GE the public will make the only sensible choice a Tory majority government. The lib dems have reverted to a protest party led by a failed geography teacher type
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,709
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    Punters really do cling to any information, not matter how unreliable, don't they.

    Yes. It's kinda worrying. At this moment all we know is that there are two major candidates and either of them could win. Everything else is speculation or modelling. But even on such paucity of info it's going up and down like a yoyo on a rollercoaster on acid. Wisdom of crowds my arse.

    [edit: fix html]
    Unlike at the Brexit referendum, where Andy's spreadsheet told us which way it was swinging pretty early!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    I rather suspect Zac's party invitation count from his Tory friends may be about to fall just as quickly as his vote
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Diane Abbott talking a lot of sense on BBC1.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.

    Also it is obviously going to be close.

    The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.

    Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,813
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    Punters really do cling to any information, not matter how unreliable, don't they.

    Yes. It's kinda worrying. At this moment all we know is that there are two major candidates and either of them could win. Everything else is speculation or modelling. But even on such paucity of info it's going up and down like a yoyo on a rollercoaster on acid. Wisdom of crowds my arse.

    [edit: fix html]
    Unlike at the Brexit referendum, where Andy's spreadsheet told us which way it was swinging pretty early!
    Indeed. By about 1am if memory serves
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    kjohnw said:

    When voters are confronted by the choice between May and Corbyns Labour Party she will win big. Labour are unelectable at the moment the lib dems may win a council seat and by-election or two but at the GE the public will make the only sensible choice a Tory majority government. The lib dems have reverted to a protest party led by a failed geography teacher type

    'Sensible' choices having done so well this year, around the world?
  • JunglelandJungleland Posts: 40
    Pulpstar said:

    53.6% is decent turnout for a December by-election to be honest.

    Average decrease of 24.57 for by-elections held in the winter months of November/December/January prior to tonight. I thought over 50.5 for Richmond was a good bet.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-clinton-campaign-seems-to-think-pennsylvania-is-in-the-bag/?ex_cid=story-twitter
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,931
    O/T

    Pretty certain that the evil tycoon bloke in "You Don't Mess With the Zohan" (now on Freeview 32) is based on Trump :)
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Dave Wasserman Verified account
    ‏@Redistrict

    Debating whether to publish the full memo the Clinton campaign sent me in June arguing why PA wasn't a swing state/worth investing in.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,813
    AndyJS said:

    Diane Abbott talking a lot of sense on BBC1.

    Where is the real AndyJS and what have you done with him?... :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    53.6% is decent turnout for a December by-election to be honest.

    Some have mentioned that it's the highest since 1984.
    Richmond Park had one of the highest turnouts in the country in 2015 so you'd expect it to have a relatively high turnout in a by-election.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The media has a slight bias to talk up the underdog in these situations I think.

    Also it is obviously going to be close.

    The other point is that Brexit "Remain" could indicate Lib Dem targets from now on out.

    Guildford now surely a top LD target for 2020.
    The LD could sweep the entirety of the South East and London and still lose their deposits everywhere else.

    No way the Tories are going to win a majority in 2020.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,813
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    O/T

    Pretty certain that the evil tycoon bloke in "You Don't Mess With the Zohan" (now on Freeview 32) is based on Trump :)

    "Clamp" in "Gremlins 2" is explicitly based on him
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Zac blowing out liek a balloon !
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,831
    Zac out to 7
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    No 2017 GE then.

    Soft Brexit won with centrist Labour votes. Election in 2020.
    Soft Brexit was/is a given. How is Hard Brexit possible on a referendum 52% vote? Also, the government's heart is not in immigration controls anyway. Look at T May's record.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:

    When voters are confronted by the choice between May and Corbyns Labour Party she will win big. Labour are unelectable at the moment the lib dems may win a council seat and by-election or two but at the GE the public will make the only sensible choice a Tory majority government. The lib dems have reverted to a protest party led by a failed geography teacher type

    'Sensible' choices having done so well this year, around the world?
    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:

    When voters are confronted by the choice between May and Corbyns Labour Party she will win big. Labour are unelectable at the moment the lib dems may win a council seat and by-election or two but at the GE the public will make the only sensible choice a Tory majority government. The lib dems have reverted to a protest party led by a failed geography teacher type

    'Sensible' choices having done so well this year, around the world?
    We're talking Jeremy Corbyn here with lower popularity than Michael foot . He ain't no Donald trump with a populist message . His message is unlimited immigration and printing money
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    Donald Trump names Gen James Mattis as defence secretary.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025