politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local and Westminster by-election preview
Options
Comments
-
Lovely interview with 96 year old Mike Sadler (last survivor of the founding of the SOS) on Newsnight.0
-
Has Paddy eaten his hat yet??nunu said:Prediction: Zac by 10%.
0 -
Richmond Park had one of the highest turnouts in the country in 2015. (Twickenham was the highest in England at 77.3%). I'd be surprised if turnout today is as low as 35%.0
-
William Hill have now closed their book. Only Ladbrokes are open (plus Betfair) offering 1/2 for Zac, 6/4 for Sarah.0
-
I would probably read it the other way if the LD lost.kle4 said:
But do they? OGH said on a thread 'In fact if you look at other by-elections where the incumbent seeks re-election then they usually do so', with very few failures apparently.GIN1138 said:
Would it be a shock if Zac loses to the Lib-Dems? I thought it was on the cards from the start - Voters HATE being forced to trudge to the polls for needless elections (especially three weeks before Christmas) and will usually punish those that bring it upon them.kle4 said:
A Tory loss on any turnout (ok, Ind loss, if we must) would be very important, as it would be a shock even on low turnout, and shocks are important because they force everyone to react differently.ThreeQuidder said:
If the turnout is that low, is it really an important by election?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
.
Without a Tory opponent to split his vote, and with UKIP also explicitly backing him, even with the Greens doing likewise for the LDs Zac should be safe given his stonking great majority and that there doesn't seem to be much antipathy toward him for his decision.
Realistically I'd have thought the LDs would hope to be within a few thousand, where they were in 2010 when they lost the seat, indicating the 20% drop in 2015 had been reversed, as there are other seats where recovering that would win a seat back.
It would be the second by-election in a row where they put all their eggs in one basket and still lost.0 -
Kingston used to be the best part of the constituency for the Tories. For example in 1997 they probably won the seat because of it. But I think things have changed a bit since then and Richmond is more Tory than it used to be.Barnesian said:
If they are from Kingston as reported, then all Kingston four wards were heavily Tory in the last local elections by a factor of two to one. But Sarah is from Kingston.AndyJS said:0 -
Can Sky News get back to Richmond
0 -
few pennies on Libs is still the only bet in town. Should be evens. Tories are feeling a bit better currently.AndyJS said:
Betfair Exchange is of course still available.Barnesian said:William Hill have now closed their book. Only Ladbrokes are open (plus Betfair) offering 1/2 for Zac, 6/4 for Sarah.
0 -
Labour candidate in Richmond Park — "Time to ban toilet paper"
http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2016/09/time-to-ban-toilet-paper/0 -
Live blog from the count here with pictures and a running commentary:
http://www.coombemonthly.co.uk/richmondpark-by-election-live-blog/0 -
There is only one basket.Speedy said:
I would probably read it the other way if the LD lost.kle4 said:
But do they? OGH said on a thread 'In fact if you look at other by-elections where the incumbent seeks re-election then they usually do so', with very few failures apparently.GIN1138 said:
Would it be a shock if Zac loses to the Lib-Dems? I thought it was on the cards from the start - Voters HATE being forced to trudge to the polls for needless elections (especially three weeks before Christmas) and will usually punish those that bring it upon them.kle4 said:
A Tory loss on any turnout (ok, Ind loss, if we must) would be very important, as it would be a shock even on low turnout, and shocks are important because they force everyone to react differently.ThreeQuidder said:
If the turnout is that low, is it really an important by election?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
.
Without a Tory opponent to split his vote, and with UKIP also explicitly backing him, even with the Greens doing likewise for the LDs Zac should be safe given his stonking great majority and that there doesn't seem to be much antipathy toward him for his decision.
Realistically I'd have thought the LDs would hope to be within a few thousand, where they were in 2010 when they lost the seat, indicating the 20% drop in 2015 had been reversed, as there are other seats where recovering that would win a seat back.
It would be the second by-election in a row where they put all their eggs in one basket and still lost.0 -
Independent gains Walbrook in City of London from...Independent. Ooh0
-
FPT re the burqa
While I believe the state shouldnt intervene unless necessary I have to reluctantly come down on the side of a ban here, the thing is with the burqa is it does not merely affect the woman wearing it
- it is a proclamation that those men viewing it are slaves to their own lust, and its necessary to hide yourself for fear of inviting it
- It labels in the minds of those men that think wearing a burqa a thing that woman should do any woman not wearing one as a women of loose morals and fair game
- It prevents social interaction when in a culture where facial expression is the norm
- It is a public statement of rejection of the host culture and therefore subconsciously stokes racial tensions
The burqa is often compared to a nuns whimple...not sure any of these objections apply to that and I certainly wouldnt advocate a ban on the niquab0 -
But wherever it is that Labour is progressing toward is unlikely to be a sensible place to go.Speedy said:As an ex-LD I agree:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804451934203678720
0 -
I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.0
-
They'd be happy just to get on the court to attempt to get near the basket. #mixedmetaphors.IanB2 said:
There is only one basket.Speedy said:
I would probably read it the other way if the LD lost.kle4 said:
But do they? OGH said on a thread 'In fact if you look at other by-elections where the incumbent seeks re-election then they usually do so', with very few failures apparently.GIN1138 said:
Would it be a shock if Zac loses to the Lib-Dems? I thought it was on the cards from the start - Voters HATE being forced to trudge to the polls for needless elections (especially three weeks before Christmas) and will usually punish those that bring it upon them.kle4 said:
A Tory loss on any turnout (ok, Ind loss, if we must) would be very important, as it would be a shock even on low turnout, and shocks are important because they force everyone to react differently.ThreeQuidder said:
If the turnout is that low, is it really an important by election?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
.
Without a Tory opponent to split his vote, and with UKIP also explicitly backing him, even with the Greens doing likewise for the LDs Zac should be safe given his stonking great majority and that there doesn't seem to be much antipathy toward him for his decision.
Realistically I'd have thought the LDs would hope to be within a few thousand, where they were in 2010 when they lost the seat, indicating the 20% drop in 2015 had been reversed, as there are other seats where recovering that would win a seat back.
It would be the second by-election in a row where they put all their eggs in one basket and still lost.0 -
Betfair moving to Zac..but .....0
-
http://labourlist.org/2016/12/richmond-park-by-election-liveblog/ ought to be reasonably neutral actually.
Wolmar hasn't won, we know that much at least.0 -
I could have mixed my metaphors and included Budapest kitchen sinks thrown into the by election by the LD.IanB2 said:
There is only one basket.Speedy said:
I would probably read it the other way if the LD lost.kle4 said:
But do they? OGH said on a thread 'In fact if you look at other by-elections where the incumbent seeks re-election then they usually do so', with very few failures apparently.GIN1138 said:
Would it be a shock if Zac loses to the Lib-Dems? I thought it was on the cards from the start - Voters HATE being forced to trudge to the polls for needless elections (especially three weeks before Christmas) and will usually punish those that bring it upon them.kle4 said:
A Tory loss on any turnout (ok, Ind loss, if we must) would be very important, as it would be a shock even on low turnout, and shocks are important because they force everyone to react differently.ThreeQuidder said:
If the turnout is that low, is it really an important by election?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
.
Without a Tory opponent to split his vote, and with UKIP also explicitly backing him, even with the Greens doing likewise for the LDs Zac should be safe given his stonking great majority and that there doesn't seem to be much antipathy toward him for his decision.
Realistically I'd have thought the LDs would hope to be within a few thousand, where they were in 2010 when they lost the seat, indicating the 20% drop in 2015 had been reversed, as there are other seats where recovering that would win a seat back.
It would be the second by-election in a row where they put all their eggs in one basket and still lost.0 -
What has happened to QT? It was actually watchable today.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
0 -
I hadn't seen much of her until the EU referendum, and I can see why the Tories are so fond o her. She's reasonably funny, for a politician, personable, and appears quick witted. In the EU debate I saw her in she picked up quickly on the irritating 'as a mother' refrain of Leadsom and co, and though it didn't work and provoked laughter, her boldness in attempting to make a positive EU case by claiming we make it work for us more than it makes us work for it, was interesting at least.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
0 -
Live betting position:
Lib Dem Zac < 2500 Zac 2500+
+23.595 +156.38 +158.890 -
Ha!AndyJS said:Labour candidate in Richmond Park — "Time to ban toilet paper"
http://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2016/09/time-to-ban-toilet-paper/0 -
And now big style to the RemainersScrapheap_as_was said:Betfair moving to Zac..but .....
0 -
Con hold Warwick
LDem Gain Chichester0 -
I think the implications of a Le Pen victory will be far more wide reaching - if frexit happens (which, if she wins, means a referendum victory is likely) I can't see the EU surviving much longer. Not to mention a complete pro-Russia pivot. the new axis of Trump-Le Pen-Putin would leave leaders like Merkel and May feeling very isolated.nunu said:
nah I actually think Le Pen would be bigger earthquake then trump because trump was standing on the Republican party platform who are not considered neo nazi/facist like FN. But trump is more important in terms of west's general direction.SeanT said:
1989 was probably more exciting, and certainly much more important, but I specifically said "within the realm of democratic politics we have had the most excitement possible" - ie. within electoral politics here in the west.FF43 said:
1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*
For politics nerds like us, I do not see how it can feasibly get any more exciting than what we have witnessed 2014-2016. Even a Marine Le Pen election wouldn't quite match Brexit or Trump. And Corbyn has provided incredible comedy.
It's a golden age now ending, like the first tang of autumn in the Summer of Love, or French Art in the decades before the lilacs and roses of the Great War.
2014-2016, we salute you.0 -
Looks like I went all Green far too early.0
-
0
-
Yeah, I'm enjoying it so far. I think Davidson, Stanley, and Johnson have all done really well. Even the Leave guy isn't so bad.brokenwheel said:
What has happened to QT? It was actually watchable today.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
Agreed. She comes across as very down to earth, and reasonable. A lot of politicians could learn from her.kle4 said:
I hadn't seen much of her until the EU referendum, and I can see why the Tories are so fond o her. She's reasonably funny, for a politician, personable, and appears quick witted. In the EU debate I saw her in she picked up quickly on the irritating 'as a mother' refrain of Leadsom and co, and though it didn't work and provoked laughter, her boldness in attempting to make a positive EU case by claiming we make it work for us more than it makes us work for it, was interesting at least.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
0 -
-
FFSake somethings happening at the count and no news org is there...0
-
Ruth is a star, but can anyone name any other Scottish Tory? It looks very much a one woman band.The_Apocalypse said:
Yeah, I'm enjoying it so far. I think Davidson, Stanley, and Johnson have all done really well. Even the Leave guy isn't so bad.brokenwheel said:
What has happened to QT? It was actually watchable today.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
Agreed. She comes across as very down to earth, and reasonable. A lot of politicians could learn from her.kle4 said:
I hadn't seen much of her until the EU referendum, and I can see why the Tories are so fond o her. She's reasonably funny, for a politician, personable, and appears quick witted. In the EU debate I saw her in she picked up quickly on the irritating 'as a mother' refrain of Leadsom and co, and though it didn't work and provoked laughter, her boldness in attempting to make a positive EU case by claiming we make it work for us more than it makes us work for it, was interesting at least.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
0 -
24% swing Con to LD in Chichester0
-
So Lib Dems have the best data in Richmond because they have had lots of voters in the past and have historical data. Labour have never had enough voters. Zac doesn't have Tory data, that's has been confirmed to me. But Tories feeling more comfortable all of a sudden. Only Libs should know the outcome and certainly the ones I have spoken don't think they have done enough. Good, if true, but data is thin on the ground. One Tory canvasser said that Libs had every member in the country there today and it was pissing people off. It's the sense of entitlement from the Liberal Elite that annoys people.0
-
But postals not added in yetSpeedy said:0 -
24% swing Tory to LibDem. That's big!MarkSenior said:Con hold Warwick
LDem Gain Chichester0 -
Crossover.0
-
Live blogs from Guardian and CoombeMonthly:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live
http://www.coombemonthly.co.uk/richmondpark-by-election-live-blog/0 -
crossover indeed...YellowSubmarine said:Crossover.
0 -
Southbourne is a Lib Dem gain. F*ck0
-
LDs 1.51 Zac 1.960
-
0
-
Totally agree with Ruth Davidson on Labour.0
-
William Hill have pulled their book and Sarah is 1.52 - 2.00 on Betfair0
-
Faisal is on the wrong side of the law IMO0
-
23% swing in Southbourne to yellows0
-
I don't like her much but I understand that she's the acceptable face of Toryism for lefties.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
0 -
Hah, I messaged some of PB's premier punters 10 mins ago telling them I was off to bed, and expecting to wake up to a Zac victory.
Now there's crossover on Betfair.0 -
"The Lib Dems are still being cautious, but someone from the Labour camp said it is looking like a Lib Dem win - “and not in recount territory, either”." Guardian blog0
-
Southbourne, Chichester
LD 646, Con 289, Ukip 132, Lab 57.0 -
Just put £20 on Zac at 2.1 which probably means he'll lose given my luck recently.0
-
Oh that's Chichester, NOT Richmond!Barnesian said:
24% swing Tory to LibDem. That's big!MarkSenior said:Con hold Warwick
LDem Gain Chichester0 -
If he loses, can't say that I have one ounce of sympathy for Zac.0
-
If Zac does lose, he will have more spare time to watch his Bollywood collectionMTimT said:If he loses, can't say that I have one ounce of sympathy for Zac.
0 -
But the Conservatives are SIXTEEN POINTS AHEAD in the Polls and Lib Dems are at 7%Dixie said:23% swing in Southbourne to yellows
0 -
Next week QT is the pits of a panel.0
-
4k version of this week's grand tour will be worth watching.0
-
I think it is over. LibDem win.0
-
Now LibDems almost nailed on acc Betfair at 1.12, Zac going out to 2.68 - someone at least thinks they know...Dixie said:
early boxes are yellow but as we know it is random. Tories going in to their shells again I assume. They've certainly stopped answering my text messages!IanB2 said:LDs 1.51 Zac 1.96
0 -
Conservative Gain from UKIP in Dorset Ferndown0
-
That's true. The Scottish Tories seem to be doing pretty well (by recent past standards anyway) under her, but I wonder if that'll continue when she's no longer leader. A quick google tells me that she's in her late thirties - so relatively young for a leader, and so she may be leader, for some time yet. Alternatively, the Tories may want her to come down to Westminster if she continues on this upwards trajectory.foxinsoxuk said:
Ruth is a star, but can anyone name any other Scottish Tory? It looks very much a one woman band.The_Apocalypse said:
Yeah, I'm enjoying it so far. I think Davidson, Stanley, and Johnson have all done really well. Even the Leave guy isn't so bad.brokenwheel said:
What has happened to QT? It was actually watchable today.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
Agreed. She comes across as very down to earth, and reasonable. A lot of politicians could learn from her.kle4 said:
I hadn't seen much of her until the EU referendum, and I can see why the Tories are so fond o her. She's reasonably funny, for a politician, personable, and appears quick witted. In the EU debate I saw her in she picked up quickly on the irritating 'as a mother' refrain of Leadsom and co, and though it didn't work and provoked laughter, her boldness in attempting to make a positive EU case by claiming we make it work for us more than it makes us work for it, was interesting at least.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
0 -
0
-
blimeyIanB2 said:
Now LibDems almost nailed on acc Betfair at 1.12, Zac going out to 2.68 - someone at least thinks they know...Dixie said:
early boxes are yellow but as we know it is random. Tories going in to their shells again I assume. They've certainly stopped answering my text messages!IanB2 said:LDs 1.51 Zac 1.96
0 -
They haven't actually started counting any votes yet, as opposed to verifying them.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live0 -
There is no acceptable face of Toryism for the British left these days. Those who have taken over the Labour party deem every Tory - in fact anyone who doesn't buy into the cult of Jeremy Corbyn - to be evil and worthy of contempt.AndyJS said:
I don't like her much but I understand that she's the acceptable face of Toryism for lefties.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
0 -
Zac now 3.850
-
Shhhh. Will you stop bringing facts into this debate.AndyJS said:They haven't actually started counting any votes yet, as opposed to verifying them.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live0 -
I think Ruth prefers Holyrood, she is no Mayfly.The_Apocalypse said:
That's true. The Scottish Tories seem to be doing pretty well (by recent past standards anyway) under her, but I wonder if that'll continue when she's no longer leader. A quick google tells me that she's in her late thirties - so relatively young for a leader, and so she may be leader, for some time yet. Alternatively, the Tories may want her to come down to Westminster if she continues on this upwards trajectory.foxinsoxuk said:
Ruth is a star, but can anyone name any other Scottish Tory? It looks very much a one woman band.The_Apocalypse said:
Yeah, I'm enjoying it so far. I think Davidson, Stanley, and Johnson have all done really well. Even the Leave guy isn't so bad.brokenwheel said:
What has happened to QT? It was actually watchable today.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
Agreed. She comes across as very down to earth, and reasonable. A lot of politicians could learn from her.kle4 said:
I hadn't seen much of her until the EU referendum, and I can see why the Tories are so fond o her. She's reasonably funny, for a politician, personable, and appears quick witted. In the EU debate I saw her in she picked up quickly on the irritating 'as a mother' refrain of Leadsom and co, and though it didn't work and provoked laughter, her boldness in attempting to make a positive EU case by claiming we make it work for us more than it makes us work for it, was interesting at least.The_Apocalypse said:I think Ruth Davidson is coming across really well on QT.
0 -
-
Then what the heck is Faisal Islam talking about.AndyJS said:They haven't actually started counting any votes yet, as opposed to verifying them.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live0 -
UKIP didn't stand last time. The Conservatives have lost over half their vote share, with a big chunk going to the Lib Dems and another big chunk to UKIP. It must be an extreme example of the Brexitisation of politics that Mike referred to earlier today.Dixie said:Southbourne is a Lib Dem gain. F*ck
0 -
So-called "sampling", probably.Speedy said:
Then what the heck is Faisal Islam talking about.AndyJS said:They haven't actually started counting any votes yet, as opposed to verifying them.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live0 -
very good. only on paperMarkSenior said:
But the Conservatives are SIXTEEN POINTS AHEAD in the Polls and Lib Dems are at 7%Dixie said:23% swing in Southbourne to yellows
0 -
But you can occasionally get a good indication from the verification stagercs1000 said:
Shhhh. Will you stop bringing facts into this debate.AndyJS said:They haven't actually started counting any votes yet, as opposed to verifying them.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live0 -
Betfair. Someone knows something from the verification stage. There was a point just now when no one was laying the LibDem and someone else wanted 900/1 to bet on Zac. It's stabilised a bit now but there is information out there. There will be moles tweeting from inside the count. No wonder Ladbrokes and William Hill have closed their books.AndyJS said:
Based on...?Barnesian said:I think it is over. LibDem win.
0 -
Ed Balls still seems pretty chubby despite his weeks of jumping about0
-
He can retire to spend more time with his money.Dixie said:0 -
It looks more like ill-informed punters overreacting to the gossip and speculation on Twitter. That doesn't mean the LDs won't win of course.Barnesian said:
Betfair. Someone knows something from the verification stage. There was a point just now when no one was laying the LibDem and someone else wanted 900/1 to bet on Zac. It's stabilised a bit now but there is information out there. There will be moles tweeting from inside the count. No wonder Ladbrokes and William Hill have closed their books.AndyJS said:
Based on...?Barnesian said:I think it is over. LibDem win.
0 -
It's the verification stage when you do your sampling. Too late when they are counting them. Faisal's tweet makes good sense, albeit I think it's dangerous to be tweeting that live from a count.Speedy said:
Then what the heck is Faisal Islam talking about.AndyJS said:They haven't actually started counting any votes yet, as opposed to verifying them.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live0 -
So based on this Tim Farron is going to be our PM.0
-
If you know an area and its boxes, it is usually possible to know how things are going early in a verification - and the LibDems will have a lot of local experience to draw on (as will any Tories that Zac has been good enough to invite, their not being entitled to any counting agents of their own).Barnesian said:
Betfair. Someone knows something from the verification stage. There was a point just now when no one was laying the LibDem and someone else wanted 900/1 to bet on Zac. It's stabilised a bit now but there is information out there. There will be moles tweeting from inside the count. No wonder Ladbrokes and William Hill have closed their books.AndyJS said:
Based on...?Barnesian said:I think it is over. LibDem win.
But it is strictly illegal to communicate the information outside the hall..in pre-mobile phone days you'd end up in jail; some counts try to prevent people taking phones in, or insist that they are turned off, but controlling it is pretty much impossible nowadays0 -
The reported comment from Faisal below has him saying all sample tallies he's seen show Olney slightly ahead.
Anyone who's been to a count will know that doesn't ring true, or he's not looked at many sample sheets.
Different tally sheets are done for each ward, and sometimes in practice they are attached to votes from a specific ballot box. It is implausible that across the constituency they'd all be showing Olney slightly ahead, even though she may be slightly ahead overall.
0 -
foxinsoxuk said:
He can retire to spend more time with his money.Dixie said:
No Tories responding to my texts now. I believe same at Brexit. The side who thinks they are losing goes quiet. At last a way to forecast results!TheScreamingEagles said:
But you can occasionally get a good indication from the verification stagercs1000 said:
Shhhh. Will you stop bringing facts into this debate.AndyJS said:They haven't actually started counting any votes yet, as opposed to verifying them.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live0
This discussion has been closed.