The problem with Boris Johnson is he doesn't know what he thinks until he has spoken.
This country is in some very deep and troubling waters and we get the rambling of nefarious Johnson. This is not going to end well as the current government would have trouble organising a drinking session in a brewery. I suspect we are currently experience one of the worst post war governments in terms of drift.
I really regret voting for the Tories in 2015, Miliband and Balls would have been better than this shower of incompetents. Meanwhile the next leader of the free world seems to have taken to one Nigel Farage who probably talks about the type of shower curtains and metallic fittings they want on the extermination chambers.....
My, my - "drinking sessions", "extermination chambers", we really are in deep shit.
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
I take it you haven't read the article. I tried for a while and it is very light on fact and very strong on editorial. The author thinks Orwell was anti-Semitic, therefore every second line is prefaced with that "fact" when reality is a couple of characters based on stereotypes early in his writing career. I should remind you that in his opus, the character who was subject to two minutes hate, Goldstein, was Jewish and the criticism was that regimes breed and cultivate intolerance.
You're pseudo-intellectual claptrap might pass among your circle of dimwitted leftist friends, but it's not so easy to make spurious arguments here. As I've found out on many occasions.
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
Yeah, but George Brown wasn't sober!
You're right. At least in the morning, George Brown sobered up. Whereas Johnson remains a bunglec**t!
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
I love history as well. When I was at school, I used to especially enjoyed reading about the history of monarchy. I still do, but I'm still also critical of imperialism as well.
On your second paragraph, one example I'll give is Orwell. I think Orwell's critiques of communism/authoritarian dictatorships were excellent. I can't praise Orwell the person however, with his anti-semitic, anti-feminist, and racist views on certain things. I suppose people would say he is a product of his time, but I think that people, whether they are aware or not actively choose to believe in the things they believe. You don't have to subscribe to anti-semitic views, you can question the environment you are brought up in.
I think the problem is, is that too often we make 'gods of men' (or indeed, goddesses of women) when such individuals have complex, or undesirable aspects of their character. There is also a resistance to revising our views of certain historical figures, in light of how our own sense of right and wrong has changed.
Orwell had general quite conventional views of gender, but I think to claim that he had anti-Semitic or racist views is completely wrong, and I would be interested to know on what basis you state this.
I don't know about his views on race in general, but having read Road to Wigan pier for the first time, he had some odd turns of phrase when talking about the natural beauty of the south east asians, and how he looked on the Burman as he would a woman, IIR the passage correctly. May read differently now than when it was written, perhaps.
Certainly. And I wouldn't want to defend his attitudes to women. However, I was brought up in a more or less exclusively white northern town during the 1970s and 1980s. I'm quite sure I occasionally, unconsciously espoused racist and homophobic views in my youth - views that I now find utterly repellent. Why do we hold Orwell to higher standards than we do ourselves?
Interesting discussion. Like schools which are (or should be) primarily measured on the extent to which they improve performance, I think historical figures should be measured by how much better (in our opinion, obviously) they were than the standards of the time. Thus a benevolent slave-owner in Alabama around 1850 who genuinely looked after his slaves might be regarded quite kindly, even though the same behaviour today would be cause for a lengthy prison sentence.
What attitudes do we take for granted today which wil seem repellent to future generations? Acceptance of factory farming, perhaps, and no doubt many other things.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Who is going to deliver the boot - an election by the Spring will see Theresa May win a substantial majority including upto 5 seats in Scotland according to my Scots relatives
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
Yeah, but George Brown wasn't sober!
You're right. At least in the morning, George Brown sobered up. Whereas Johnson remains a bunglec**t!
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
Yeah, but George Brown wasn't sober!
You're right. At least in the morning, George Brown sobered up. Whereas Johnson remains a bunglec**t!
nod to Winston please
For sure. I assumed the esteemed denizens of PB would get the ref.
I love history as well. When I was at school, I used to especially enjoyed reading about the history of monarchy. I still do, but I'm still also critical of imperialism as well.
On your second paragraph, one example I'll give is Orwell. I think Orwell's critiques of communism/authoritarian dictatorships You don't have to subscribe to anti-semitic views, you can question the environment you are brought up in.
I think the problem is, is that too often we make 'gods of men' (or indeed, goddesses of women) when such individuals have complex, or undesirable aspects of their character. There is also a resistance to revising our views of certain historical figures, in light of how our own sense of right and wrong has changed.
Orwell had general quite conventional views of gender, but I think to claim that he had anti-Semitic or racist views is completely wrong, and I would be interested to know on what basis you state this.
I don't know about his views on race in general, but having read Road to Wigan pier for the first time, he had some odd turns of phrase when talking about the natural beauty of the south east asians, and how he looked on the Burman as he would a woman, IIR the passage correctly. May read differently now than when it was written, perhaps.
Certainly. And I wouldn't want to defend his attitudes to women. However, I was brought up in a more or less exclusively white northern town during the 1970s and 1980s. I'm quite sure I occasionally, unconsciously espoused racist and homophobic views in my youth - views that I now find utterly repellent. Why do we hold Orwell to higher standards than we do ourselves?
Interesting discussion. Like schools which are (or should be) primarily measured on the extent to which they improve performance, I think historical figures should be measured by how much better (in our opinion, obviously) they were than the standards of the time. Thus a benevolent slave-owner in Alabama around 1850 who genuinely looked after his slaves might be regarded quite kindly, even though the same behaviour today would be cause for a lengthy prison sentence.
What attitudes do we take for granted today which wil seem repellent to future generations? Acceptance of factory farming, perhaps, and no doubt many other things.
Preferring incompetent, right wing Tory governments to a Labour party led by anyone other than Jeremy Corbyn ;-)
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Who is going to deliver the boot - an election by the Spring will see Theresa May win a substantial majority including upto 5 seats in Scotland according to my Scots relatives
Who knows? As we have seen replicated many times this year. Anything can happen. I do not think their will be a GE next year after the budget that Hammond just gave.
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
Yeah, but George Brown wasn't sober!
Blimey it's more than 40 years since he lay there in the gutter thinking thoughts he couldn't utter. And 40 years since Paul Nuttall was hardly a twinkle in his daddy's eye. And it all passes in just a moment.
One or two waspish comments about the physical appearance of the LD candidate - perhaps one or two of the anti-LDs are a shade rattled.
Seriously, I said on the day Zac resigned I thought the LDs wouldn't beat him in a straight fight. He had a significant personal vote which would transcend his "Independent" status and was well entrenched. Nonetheless, the LD campaign has thrown the proverbial kitchen sink at this and in a sense this is Farron's Eastbourne - victory here and the party is back in the game in a way it hasn't been since the 2015 GE.
On topic, is it a good move ? As a motivational tool for both sides and all sides, saying you are just ahead is better than saying you are well behind. It's canvass returns though which of course should be taken with a bucket of salt but those running the LD campaign will know the area and know the electorate well. The party has had a presence in Richmond for decades and even when not running the council has retained a strong local identity.
I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow and I suspect very few, if anyone, does.
If LD loses by less than the Labour vote, I will be very unhappy.
My current best guess is:
Zac 19,000 Sarah 17,000 Labour 3,000
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Who is going to deliver the boot - an election by the Spring will see Theresa May win a substantial majority including upto 5 seats in Scotland according to my Scots relatives
Who knows? As we have seen replicated many times this year. Anything can happen. I do not think their will be a GE next year after the budget that Hammond just gave.
I agree and I believe we all should agree to get on with A50 asap and see where it takes us.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Who is going to deliver the boot - an election by the Spring will see Theresa May win a substantial majority including upto 5 seats in Scotland according to my Scots relatives
Who knows? As we have seen replicated many times this year. Anything can happen. I do not think their will be a GE next year after the budget that Hammond just gave.
I agree and I believe we all should agree to get on with A50 asap and see where it takes us.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Who is going to deliver the boot - an election by the Spring will see Theresa May win a substantial majority including upto 5 seats in Scotland according to my Scots relatives
Who knows? As we have seen replicated many times this year. Anything can happen. I do not think their will be a GE next year after the budget that Hammond just gave.
I agree and I believe we all should agree to get on with A50 asap and see where it takes us.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Who is going to deliver the boot - an election by the Spring will see Theresa May win a substantial majority including upto 5 seats in Scotland according to my Scots relatives
Who knows? As we have seen replicated many times this year. Anything can happen. I do not think their will be a GE next year after the budget that Hammond just gave.
I agree and I believe we all should agree to get on with A50 asap and see where it takes us.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Who is going to deliver the boot - an election by the Spring will see Theresa May win a substantial majority including upto 5 seats in Scotland according to my Scots relatives
Who knows? As we have seen replicated many times this year. Anything can happen. I do not think their will be a GE next year after the budget that Hammond just gave.
I agree and I believe we all should agree to get on with A50 asap and see where it takes us.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Who is going to deliver the boot - an election by the Spring will see Theresa May win a substantial majority including upto 5 seats in Scotland according to my Scots relatives
Who knows? As we have seen replicated many times this year. Anything can happen. I do not think their will be a GE next year after the budget that Hammond just gave.
I agree and I believe we all should agree to get on with A50 asap and see where it takes us.
Derby to Stoke?
Warrington to Leicester.
Hull to Man Utd
Hell and back?
"From Hell, Hull, and Halifax, Good Lord, deliver us!".
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Who is going to deliver the boot - an election by the Spring will see Theresa May win a substantial majority including upto 5 seats in Scotland according to my Scots relatives
Who knows? As we have seen replicated many times this year. Anything can happen. I do not think their will be a GE next year after the budget that Hammond just gave.
I agree and I believe we all should agree to get on with A50 asap and see where it takes us.
I wouldn't go that far with an 1850 slaveowner. Holding slaves at all was far from universal even in the Southern States.
I think that I have read just about everything that Orwell wrote, and he certainly expressed the attitudes of his day. His female characters are particularly wooden (such as "A Clergymans Daughter" ), and his depiction of Burmese, Indians and Britons in Burma pretty hard on all parties. Part of his point in "Burmese Days" was that colonialism degrades the oppressor as much or more than the oppressed. He wrote from personal experience in this.
He was pretty hard at times on the working class, the problem of the poor being that they smell, for example! Nonetheless he did some astonishing things to speak up for Socialism, against both Capitalism and Communism. He demonstrated a Socialism that was patriotic, but anti-colonialist, at a time of flagwaving imperialist jingoism. He also went off to fight freely, and at great personal risk for Republican Spain. He was no armchair warrior.
The character that I think most demonstrates his own duality is Gordon Comstock in "Keep the Aspidistra Flying", rebelling against the world that produced him.
What's your interpretation? Possibly more nuanced than 'Hard Brexit' vs 'Soft Brexit'?
Why would the ECJ not have jurisdiction in EU matters?
For me the bigger issue is that for the first time in our history non-British courts will get to determine whether patents covering the UK are valid or not. In future we will see something we have never seen before: non-UK judges, sitting in non-UK courts taking UK patent rights away from UK companies. That's a big transfer of sovereignty away from the UK.
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
Until recently I was still on the list as a London Labour member, but had zero requests to go and help there. Wolmar has fought a spirited campaign but I'm not sure how much infrastructure support he got.
That said, I agree with OGH that predicting a win is odd expectation management. If they win, they'll get loads of kudos anyway. If they don't, they'll be seen as falling short of their expectations. Either way it's an odd by-election and I'm not sure it will be very influential elsewhere.
What's your interpretation? Possibly more nuanced than 'Hard Brexit' vs 'Soft Brexit'?
Why would the ECJ not have jurisdiction in EU matters?
For me the bigger issue is that for the first time in our history non-British courts will get to determine whether patents covering the UK are valid or not. In future we will see something we have never seen before: non-UK judges, sitting in non-UK courts taking UK patent rights away from UK companies. That's a big transfer of sovereignty away from the UK.
Do you view that as a 'good thing' or a 'bad thing'?
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
What's your interpretation? Possibly more nuanced than 'Hard Brexit' vs 'Soft Brexit'?
Why would the ECJ not have jurisdiction in EU matters?
For me the bigger issue is that for the first time in our history non-British courts will get to determine whether patents covering the UK are valid or not. In future we will see something we have never seen before: non-UK judges, sitting in non-UK courts taking UK patent rights away from UK companies. That's a big transfer of sovereignty away from the UK.
Do you view that as a 'good thing' or a 'bad thing'?
I have no problem with it. I think the government made the right decision.
I take it you haven't read the article. I tried for a while and it is very light on fact and very strong on editorial. The author thinks Orwell was anti-Semitic, therefore every second line is prefaced with that "fact" when reality is a couple of characters based on stereotypes early in his writing career. I should remind you that in his opus, the character who was subject to two minutes hate, Goldstein, was Jewish and the criticism was that regimes breed and cultivate intolerance.
You're pseudo-intellectual claptrap might pass among your circle of dimwitted leftist friends, but it's not so easy to make spurious arguments here. As I've found out on many occasions.
Please do something about the chip on your shoulder. You know nothing about my circle of friends, and plenty of your arguments have been torn to pieces on this site. Your own response is very light on argument; it is essentially your own projected view on the article, with no evidence provided to support your own view. I know you think that PB should only be a place where those who hold you own narrow, right-wing opinions express their views, however you better deal with the fact that others will post on this site who directly challenge your own world view.
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
Until recently I was still on the list as a London Labour member, but had zero requests to go and help there. Wolmar has fought a spirited campaign but I'm not sure how much infrastructure support he got.
That said, I agree with OGH that predicting a win is odd expectation management. If they win, they'll get loads of kudos anyway. If they don't, they'll be seen as falling short of their expectations. Either way it's an odd by-election and I'm not sure it will be very influential elsewhere.
I've been pondering this for several hours and conclude that the only rationale for the rash LD prediction is that they believe they will win.
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
Until recently I was still on the list as a London Labour member, but had zero requests to go and help there. Wolmar has fought a spirited campaign but I'm not sure how much infrastructure support he got.
That said, I agree with OGH that predicting a win is odd expectation management. If they win, they'll get loads of kudos anyway. If they don't, they'll be seen as falling short of their expectations. Either way it's an odd by-election and I'm not sure it will be very influential elsewhere.
I've been pondering this for several hours and conclude that the only rationale for the rash LD prediction is that they believe they will win.
The Ladbrokes 9/4 looks very tempting.
I think Zac under 2500 majority at 5/1 is value at Ladbrokes, but hard to tell what is going on.
What's your interpretation? Possibly more nuanced than 'Hard Brexit' vs 'Soft Brexit'?
Why would the ECJ not have jurisdiction in EU matters?
For me the bigger issue is that for the first time in our history non-British courts will get to determine whether patents covering the UK are valid or not. In future we will see something we have never seen before: non-UK judges, sitting in non-UK courts taking UK patent rights away from UK companies. That's a big transfer of sovereignty away from the UK.
Do you view that as a 'good thing' or a 'bad thing'?
I have no problem with it. I think the government made the right decision.
I think we'll see a whole procession of 'pragmatic' (or 'muddling through') decisions which will fall one side or the other of 'Hard' or 'Soft' Brexit - which will be the right things, but bug the hell out of the French who would have started from a theoretical position and forced every decision to conform.....
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
Until recently I was still on the list as a London Labour member, but had zero requests to go and help there. Wolmar has fought a spirited campaign but I'm not sure how much infrastructure support he got.
That said, I agree with OGH that predicting a win is odd expectation management. If they win, they'll get loads of kudos anyway. If they don't, they'll be seen as falling short of their expectations. Either way it's an odd by-election and I'm not sure it will be very influential elsewhere.
I've been pondering this for several hours and conclude that the only rationale for the rash LD prediction is that they believe they will win.
The Ladbrokes 9/4 looks very tempting.
I think Zac under 2500 majority at 5/1 is value at Ladbrokes, but hard to tell what is going on.
I think thats the best bet. Zac should... win, and I'm keeping my (small) book tilted towards him, but he was utterly dire in the mayoral contest.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Yes, the clock is definitely ticking down for the Tory hard-Brexit faction. I'm not sure Farage did them any favours: I can't see Trump being well liked over here - he embodies pretty much everything the British dislike about Americans - so Farage's antics might have contaminated the hard-Brexit brand somewhat. Either way, it won't have soothed the public's growing sense of impatience, and they'll soon be expecting signs of progress.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Yes, the clock is definitely ticking down for the Tory hard-Brexit faction. I'm not sure Farage did them any favours: I can't see Trump being well liked over here - he embodies pretty much everything the British dislike about Americans - so Farage's antics might have contaminated the hard-Brexit brand somewhat. Either way, it won't have soothed the public's growing sense of impatience, and they'll soon be expecting signs of progress.
*IF* we believe recent polling, the British public want control over freedom of movement, and to stay in the single market. So it looks like either way, many will be disappointed.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through Johnsons miscalculation Millions of Briton's are going to be worse off due to something they never voted in favour of being delivered by a PM with no mandate. Johnson and Co lied about NHS funding etc despite the protestations of the nefarious Johnson during the campaign saying it was scare stories. We have now been on the receiving end of a doomsday budget - You leavers feeling good now? Johnson and co incompetently wield power and nothing can be done to replace this failing government.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and specifically the vulnerable are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Yes, the clock is definitely ticking down for the Tory hard-Brexit faction. I'm not sure Farage did them any favours: I can't see Trump being well liked over here - he embodies pretty much everything the British dislike about Americans - so Farage's antics might have contaminated the hard-Brexit brand somewhat. Either way, it won't have soothed the public's growing sense of impatience, and they'll soon be expecting signs of progress.
I think the Hard Brexiteers are winning. I also think Boris is genuinely a Soft Brexiteer. He is however finding himself scorned by the Hard Brexiteer swivel eyed loons in his own government as well as being mocked as a delusional clown by his opposite numbers in the rEU
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Yes, the clock is definitely ticking down for the Tory hard-Brexit faction. I'm not sure Farage did them any favours: I can't see Trump being well liked over here - he embodies pretty much everything the British dislike about Americans - so Farage's antics might have contaminated the hard-Brexit brand somewhat. Either way, it won't have soothed the public's growing sense of impatience, and they'll soon be expecting signs of progress.
*IF* we believe recent polling, the British public want control over freedom of movement, and to stay in the single market. So it looks like either way, many will be disappointed.
In fairness, given this is a thread header about expectations management, while I may be an overly gloomy brexiter, brexiteers in general have been very poor at managing expectations re the level of complexity and compromise that might be necessary on many things. I still think hardish Brexit is most likely as even if it is right softer brexits are more beneficial, there is more uncertainty than the hard brexiter core believers, and hard Brexit is so much easier and simpler to achieve, and the government woukd rather appear to choose it than fail and have little option to have it. And that applies to the eu too. Even if long term it hits them too, us appearing to be punished and suffering will not exactly encourage anti eu feelings if any negative hits to them are not immediately apparent, and they always choose the short term fix.
Boris Johnson is a third rate politician. He continually miscalculates and by all accounts is confuses work colleagues i.e. other Foreign Ministers as mates rather than rivals to the British national interest.
It is pretty obvious Johnson was just after Cameron's job in the referendum and so courted those who one day may deliver that aspiration. Like all politicians he will never give up the aspiration of becoming PM whilst his body and mind can take the strain.
Again, through.
LEAVE 52% Hillary REMAIN 48%
Yes, Nefarious Johnson and Farage conned a lot of people. This is why most post war governments have never invested time in referenda. The economy and are going to suffer. If that makes me a REMOANER then so be it. The BREXIT politicians have been given all the key jobs and have got nowhere. After another six months of drift and vacillation blaming everybody but themselves I hope they get given the order of the boot!
Yes, the clock is definitely ticking down for the Tory hard-Brexit faction. I'm not sure Farage did them any favours: I can't see Trump being well liked over here - he embodies pretty much everything the British dislike about Americans - so Farage's antics might have contaminated the hard-Brexit brand somewhat. Either way, it won't have soothed the public's growing sense of impatience, and they'll soon be expecting signs of progress.
*IF* we believe recent polling, the British public want control over freedom of movement, and to stay in the single market. So it looks like either way, many will be disappointed.
In fairness, given this is a thread header about expectations management, while I may be an overly gloomy brexiter, brexiteers in general have been very poor at managing expectations re the level of complexity and compromise that might be necessary on many things. I still think hardish Brexit is most likely as even if it is right softer brexits are more beneficial, there is more uncertainty than the hard brexiter core believers, and hard Brexit is so much easier and simpler to achieve, and the government woukd rather appear to choose it than fail and have little option to have it. And that applies to the eu too. Even if long term it hits them too, us appearing to be punished and suffering will not exactly encourage anti eu feelings if any negative hits to them are not immediately apparent, and they always choose the short term fix.
It's not about "expectations". It's about sending a message: everything burns!
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
Until recently I was still on the list as a London Labour member, but had zero requests to go and help there. Wolmar has fought a spirited campaign but I'm not sure how much infrastructure support he got.
That said, I agree with OGH that predicting a win is odd expectation management. If they win, they'll get loads of kudos anyway. If they don't, they'll be seen as falling short of their expectations. Either way it's an odd by-election and I'm not sure it will be very influential elsewhere.
I've been pondering this for several hours and conclude that the only rationale for the rash LD prediction is that they believe they will win.
So they're still delusional then?
I will be happy to eat those words Friday morning if needs be.
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
Until recently I was still on the list as a London Labour member, but had zero requests to go and help there. Wolmar has fought a spirited campaign but I'm not sure how much infrastructure support he got.
That said, I agree with OGH that predicting a win is odd expectation management. If they win, they'll get loads of kudos anyway. If they don't, they'll be seen as falling short of their expectations. Either way it's an odd by-election and I'm not sure it will be very influential elsewhere.
I've been pondering this for several hours and conclude that the only rationale for the rash LD prediction is that they believe they will win.
So they're still delusional then?
I will be happy to eat those words Friday morning if needs be.
+1
I'd actually like to see the LDs win in Richmond. But, I think Goldsmith will win a marginal victory.
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
Until recently I was still on the list as a London Labour member, but had zero requests to go and help there. Wolmar has fought a spirited campaign but I'm not sure how much infrastructure support he got.
That said, I agree with OGH that predicting a win is odd expectation management. If they win, they'll get loads of kudos anyway. If they don't, they'll be seen as falling short of their expectations. Either way it's an odd by-election and I'm not sure it will be very influential elsewhere.
I've been pondering this for several hours and conclude that the only rationale for the rash LD prediction is that they believe they will win.
The Ladbrokes 9/4 looks very tempting.
Ok - lets hope it is better than the WAK poll during GE2015 !
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
Until recently I was still on the list as a London Labour member, but had zero requests to go and help there. Wolmar has fought a spirited campaign but I'm not sure how much infrastructure support he got.
That said, I agree with OGH that predicting a win is odd expectation management. If they win, they'll get loads of kudos anyway. If they don't, they'll be seen as falling short of their expectations. Either way it's an odd by-election and I'm not sure it will be very influential elsewhere.
I've been pondering this for several hours and conclude that the only rationale for the rash LD prediction is that they believe they will win.
The Ladbrokes 9/4 looks very tempting.
Ok - lets hope it is better than the WAK poll during GE2015 !
On topic, winning the by-election is news. Not-winning-the-by-election-despite-saying-maybe-you-would isn't news. If the LibDems think that saying they're winning will help them win, that's what they should do.
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
If I may repeat a post I made several months ago, the key to understanding Boris is that he bolts. Whether it's journalism, marriages ot trying to become Prime Minister, he tries hard, gets surprisingly close, then either resigns or engineers a disaster to force his own firing. This is a man, who on the verge of attaining the Premiership, quits in a speech. He's reasonably intelligent (tho' not the genius SeanT thinks he is), genuinely charming, very easy to like and has let down everybody who has ever placed their faith in him. The only reason for making him ForSec is that the job is now so etiolated it doesn't matter if he fucks it up.
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
If I may repeat a post I made several months ago, the key to understanding Boris is that he bolts. Whether it's journalism, marriages ot trying to become Prime Minister, he tries hard, gets surprisingly close, then either resigns or engineers a disaster to force his own firing. This is a man, who on the verge of attaining the Premiership, quits in a speech. He's reasonably intelligent (tho' not the genius SeanT thinks he is), genuinely charming, very easy to like and has let down everybody who has ever placed their faith in him. The only reason for making him ForSec is that the job is now so etiolated it doesn't matter if he fucks it up.
Didn't someone else from this parish comment, from experience, that he was absolutely charming as a drinking companion, but you'd be advised to count your fingers after shaking hands with him.
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
If I may repeat a post I made several months ago, the key to understanding Boris is that he bolts. Whether it's journalism, marriages ot trying to become Prime Minister, he tries hard, gets surprisingly close, then either resigns or engineers a disaster to force his own firing. This is a man, who on the verge of attaining the Premiership, quits in a speech. He's reasonably intelligent (tho' not the genius SeanT thinks he is), genuinely charming, very easy to like and has let down everybody who has ever placed their faith in him. The only reason for making him ForSec is that the job is now so etiolated it doesn't matter if he fucks it up.
Didn't someone else from this parish comment, from experience, that he was absolutely charming as a drinking companion, but you'd be advised to count your fingers after shaking hands with him.
Unknown. I know SeanT's met him but given the wide-ranging nature of PB readership it wouldn't surprise me if somebody else had as well
@chrisshipitv: Reliable source tells me Boris did tell these EU Ambassadors that day that the UK *will* be leaving the single market AND the customs union
He is a bunglec**t. The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
If I may repeat a post I made several months ago, the key to understanding Boris is that he bolts. Whether it's journalism, marriages ot trying to become Prime Minister, he tries hard, gets surprisingly close, then either resigns or engineers a disaster to force his own firing. This is a man, who on the verge of attaining the Premiership, quits in a speech. He's reasonably intelligent (tho' not the genius SeanT thinks he is), genuinely charming, very easy to like and has let down everybody who has ever placed their faith in him. The only reason for making him ForSec is that the job is now so etiolated it doesn't matter if he fucks it up.
Didn't someone else from this parish comment, from experience, that he was absolutely charming as a drinking companion, but you'd be advised to count your fingers after shaking hands with him.
Unknown. I know SeanT's met him but given the wide-ranging nature of PB readership it wouldn't surprise me if somebody else had as well
I have met Boris Johnson more than once (and indeed shaken hands with him with fingers intact) but I didn't notice him being etiolated.
Brillig maiden speech by Robert Courts (Witney), by the way. He lives in Blaydon, where Sir Winston Churchill is buried, and is the great-grandson of Albert Stubbs (Labour MP for Cambridgeshire 1945-50).
I met Boris once and he made a couple of comments that struck me as remarkably shrewd though both were humorous. I think he has difficulty taking anything seriously.
On topic - the result will depend entirely on differential turnout. If Zac can't get the vote out, but the Lib Dems can - that's their road to victory.
On Boris - I've met him, very briefly. He appeared (and appears) to be a facsimile of a friend of my fathers from a very similar background. Gifted intellectually - but learned to hide it under cover of being a clown to avoid bullying at school. In later life the clown thing continued as a mask to observe the world behind....
On Orwell - the "working class smell" thing - he wrote -
“That was what we were taught – the lower classes smell. And here, obviously, you are at an impassable barrier. For no feeling of like or dislike is quite so fundamental as a physical feeling. Race hatred, religious hatred, differences of education, of temperament, of intellect, even differences of moral code, can be got over, but physical repulsion cannot. You can have affection for a murderer or a sodomite, but you cannot have affection for a man whose breath stinks – habitually stinks, I mean. However well you may wish him, however much you may admire his mind and character, if his breath stinks he is horrible and in your heart of hearts you will hate him. It may not greatly matter if the average middle-class person is brought up to believe that the working classes are ignorant, lazy drunken, boorish and dishonest; it is when he is brought up to believe that they are dirty that the harm is done.”
As usual, the short version of the quote reverses the meaning.
There is a strange little industry in trying to prove Orwell was evil/liar/rightwing, on the left. One of my favourites was the story of Claude Simon (the French Nobel Prize winner for literature) who spent a great deal of effort on trying to prove that Homage to Catalonia was all fake. Among other things he tried to claim that the first sentence was made up - except there is photographic proof that it was true....
The scribbled notes we saw on that page are a perilously accurate guide to what’s going on in the government’s collective head: that is, not much. Just days before the photo leak a grim-faced source told me how scared he was by the internal confusion, grandstanding and ignorance over Brexit. It’s still an almighty muddle. No one has even begun to address the basic problem: that British voters were promised much more than can ever be delivered by Brexit. There is no plan. There is no hidden strategy. There is no leadership.
I really wish the Conservatives had put up a candidate against Zac, even if it had cost the seat. His puerile behaviour needs punished and party discipline is far more important than 1 MP.
Given their current national polling even getting close would be a good result for the Lib Dems. It is hard not to wish them well.
The scribbled notes we saw on that page are a perilously accurate guide to what’s going on in the government’s collective head: that is, not much. Just days before the photo leak a grim-faced source told me how scared he was by the internal confusion, grandstanding and ignorance over Brexit. It’s still an almighty muddle. No one has even begun to address the basic problem: that British voters were promised much more than can ever be delivered by Brexit. There is no plan. There is no hidden strategy. There is no leadership.
Some of us have been saying this on here for a long time.
May is really in a near impossible situation.
Even if you believe the cause is right, we are embarked on a hugely complicated endeavour, an unwinding that should take a decade or more.
We do so with no allies. None.
With the civil service and 48pc of the country against.
With only the scale of the economic downside in dispute (no-one serious predicts a Brexit boon).
And while the international security situation looks rather more fragile than it did this time last year.
It would need a Solomon, a Bismarck, or a Churchill.
I said at the outset that May ought to have guaranteed the rights of EU citizens currently in the UK (goodwill) and set a course in favour of the closest possible economic relationship with the EU consistent with our parliamentary sovreignty (the right tone for business and impossible to argue with).
Further, she ought to have set expectations on the timescales of Brexit, and spent the last several months devising a robust plan for *how* to exit.
This plan ought or have put to parliamentary vote, not for legislative approval but to gain political legitimacy.
Instead she has burned precious political capital and goodwill here and abroad by appointing Johnson, her ill considered conference speech, and by setting a timescale for exercising Article 50 that may not be compatible with our constitution.
O/T French Election - Official start of the left-wing primary
The candidacies need to be presented between today and December 15. Eachcandidate from the socialist party (PS) needs the support of a fixed number of party MPs (19) or local councillors (66) or mayors (10) or mambers of the national executive (15). Representatives of small parties allied to the PS are directly accepted as candidates.
Arnaud Montebourg and Benoit Hamon, both form the left-wing of the party and both former ministers of Hollande, have already officially deposited their supporters names and are officially candidates. Marie Noelle Lienemann (yet another left-wing member and former minister) should also get the support she needs. Gerard Filoche (from the most leftist faction) probably not.
Francois de Rugy (Parti ecologiste), Jean-Luc Benhamias (Front democrate) and Pierre Larrouturou (Nouvelle donne), présidents of their respective micro-parties allied to the PS, wwill be directly accepted.
Of all these declared candidates, only Montebourg is considered to have a chance.
But the main suspense now is whether/when Hollande will announce his candidacy and if he will try to kill the primary. Valls would have to go through the primary anyway.
My guess is that Hollande will announce his candidacy this weekend. It will look absurd if he tries to avoid the primary but it is by no means impossible.
The challenge for any primary winner will be to deal with the 6 other candidates from the left: 3 far-left candidates (Arthaud, Poutou, Mélenchon), the Green (Jadot), the Radical (Pinel) and Macron (who still says he is left wing)
Instead she has burned precious political capital and goodwill here and abroad by appointing Johnson, her ill considered conference speech, and by setting a timescale for exercising Article 50 that may not be compatible with our constitution.
The scribbled notes we saw on that page are a perilously accurate guide to what’s going on in the government’s collective head: that is, not much. Just days before the photo leak a grim-faced source told me how scared he was by the internal confusion, grandstanding and ignorance over Brexit. It’s still an almighty muddle. No one has even begun to address the basic problem: that British voters were promised much more than can ever be delivered by Brexit. There is no plan. There is no hidden strategy. There is no leadership.
The three Brexiteers are certainly not "All for one, and one for all"
Boris is an open minded internationalist at heart, so his motivation for soft Brexit is very different to Hammonds rather bean counting Soft Brexit, and completely at odds with the Hard Brexiteers. They too are split between the free-trading capitalists and the socially conservatives who want to fight globalisation. It is an unholy mess and May seems unable to get a grip on it. The longer she dithers, the more likely it will descend into a humiliating farce.
A one line A50 bill and aiming for hard Brexit, followed by a few transitional negotiations would have been a far better way to go. Once that deal was done we could then reconstruct something useful on the bombsite.
The scribbled notes we saw on that page are a perilously accurate guide to what’s going on in the government’s collective head: that is, not much. Just days before the photo leak a grim-faced source told me how scared he was by the internal confusion, grandstanding and ignorance over Brexit. It’s still an almighty muddle. No one has even begun to address the basic problem: that British voters were promised much more than can ever be delivered by Brexit. There is no plan. There is no hidden strategy. There is no leadership.
Some of us have been saying this on here for a long time.
May is really in a near impossible situation.
I said at the outset that May ought to have guaranteed the rights of EU citizens currently in the UK (goodwill) and set a course in favour of the closest possible economic relationship with the EU consistent with our parliamentary sovreignty (the right tone for business and impossible to argue with).
Further, she ought to have set expectations on the timescales of Brexit, and spent the last several months devising a robust plan for *how* to exit.
This plan ought or have put to parliamentary vote, not for legislative approval but to gain political legitimacy.
Instead she has burned precious political capital and goodwill here and abroad by appointing Johnson, her ill considered conference speech, and by setting a timescale for exercising Article 50 that may not be compatible with our constitution.
I agree that she faces an enormous challenge in Brexit.
But I think you're underestimating the difficulties she faces from the Conservative party... she had to get their trust first that she will deliver Brexit (especially having won in a coronation)... To get the trust she needed senior Brexiteers in senior positions and she needed to not sound like she was delaying Brexit..
I think she has given Boris as senior a position as she possibly could... whilst limiting his actual power as far as possible. I imagine Johnson will be sidelined once serious negotiations get underway. Some reports already that EU leaders are ignoring what he says....
I think if she had come out and said- Brexit will be very hard... may take a decade... can't yet say when A50 will be enacted- she would have had a rebellion on her hands.
Mr. Submarine, between that and Boris' apparent muttering to foreign envoys that he supports free movement, he might want to consider who he's batting for.
The scribbled notes we saw on that page are a perilously accurate guide to what’s going on in the government’s collective head: that is, not much. Just days before the photo leak a grim-faced source told me how scared he was by the internal confusion, grandstanding and ignorance over Brexit. It’s still an almighty muddle. No one has even begun to address the basic problem: that British voters were promised much more than can ever be delivered by Brexit. There is no plan. There is no hidden strategy. There is no leadership.
The three Brexiteers are certainly not "All for one, and one for all"
Boris is an open minded internationalist at heart, so his motivation for soft Brexit is very different to Hammonds rather bean counting Soft Brexit, and completely at odds with the Hard Brexiteers. They too are split between the free-trading capitalists and the socially conservatives who want to fight globalisation. It is an unholy mess and May seems unable to get a grip on it. The longer she dithers, the more likely it will descend into a humiliating farce.
A one line A50 bill and aiming for hard Brexit, followed by a few transitional negotiations would have been a far better way to go. Once that deal was done we could then reconstruct something useful on the bombsite.
Boris is not an open minded internationalist at heart. By instinct maybe, but at heart is an over-indulged, selfish b*****d who has let down everyone who ever believed in him. He's finally found an audience that don't find his clowning remotely amusing.
He has no real convictions, and little courage in them, and his much celebrated havering over in and out was really the act of a man summoning the pluck to stab his friend in the back.
He's not overly intelligent either. Spraying around Latin epithets may win plaudits in the Eton Common Room, but it doesn't amount to real intellectual heft. Blair, Brown, Thatcher and Hague were/are all smarter, without being full on wonks.
The scribbled notes we saw on that page are a perilously accurate guide to what’s going on in the government’s collective head: that is, not much. Just days before the photo leak a grim-faced source told me how scared he was by the internal confusion, grandstanding and ignorance over Brexit. It’s still an almighty muddle. No one has even begun to address the basic problem: that British voters were promised much more than can ever be delivered by Brexit. There is no plan. There is no hidden strategy. There is no leadership.
I agree that she faces an enormous challenge in Brexit.
But I think you're underestimating the difficulties she faces from the Conservative party... she had to get their trust first that she will deliver Brexit (especially having won in a coronation)... To get the trust she needed senior Brexiteers in senior positions and she needed to not sound like she was delaying Brexit..
I think she has given Boris as senior a position as she possibly could... whilst limiting his actual power as far as possible. I imagine Johnson will be sidelined once serious negotiations get underway. Some reports already that EU leaders are ignoring what he says....
I think if she had come out and said- Brexit will be very hard... may take a decade... can't yet say when A50 will be enacted- she would have had a rebellion on her hands.
Quite probably, although I think the UDI faction were as dazed as anyone else in the post-Brexit twilight zone leading up to May's coronation.
Up until conference she had immense political capital.
Looking at the polls, she still does, if she was minded to use it.
The UDI faction can rant and foam, but there is still a majority of a kind in parliament for sobriety and sanity. One benefit of Corbyn is that a good number of Labour MPs would be quite willing to break ranks if a non-partisan motion could be constructed.
Indeed, it's possible Corbyn would support such a thing. He clearly has even less of a clue what his own policy on Brexit is than May.
Yet we are repeatedly being told that EU migrants are fleeing in fear of being lynched on the streets of Remainastan or have already left because they can now be paid more to pick potatoes in Poland rather than in Lincolnshire.
And don't these EU citizens who want residency in Britain know that that the British economy is about to receive the four horsemen of the apocalypse ?
I'm going to take the contrary view and posit a very narrow win for the libs today. Majority of no more than 500.
This isn't Witney, where there was no history of LD strength. This was an LD seat 11 years ago. Despite the strong demographic trends since, there's a propensity for support and no doubt who the main opposition is.
It's a metropolitan area and the Labour vote is small but very squeezable. Heathrow is a busted flush, the libs will have told everybody that this is a chance to make a point on Brexit.
Two quick thoughts, The Green and UKIP votes would have cancelled each other out so no real effect on the result either way, also how many seats are UKIP running currently second, less than 10 less than 5?
Just back from telling for a quick cup of tea. Freezing! Brisk voting. My impression is that the turnout is likely to be higher than the 50% I was estimating. But that is based on one polling station and a particular time slot so caution.
Just back from telling for a quick cup of tea. Freezing! Brisk voting. My impression is that the turnout is likely to be higher than the 50% I was estimating. But that is based on one polling station and a particular time slot so caution.
I can't remember. Is high turnout good or bad for Zac? From memory, I thought good, although I cannot recall the logic.
Just went and put £150 on Olney at 2/1. Reports i am getting and i am sure Barnesian can confirm this, is that there are upward of 1000 lib dems going to be in Richmond knocking up and on the GOTV trail. If true Zac is in big trouble because he hasnt got half of that help today.
Just back from telling for a quick cup of tea. Freezing! Brisk voting. My impression is that the turnout is likely to be higher than the 50% I was estimating. But that is based on one polling station and a particular time slot so caution.
I can't remember. Is high turnout good or bad for Zac? From memory, I thought good, although I cannot recall the logic.
Should be goid for Zac but it depends on switchers.
Comments
The worst Foreign Sec since George Brown, and perhaps even Lord Halifax.
You're pseudo-intellectual claptrap might pass among your circle of dimwitted leftist friends, but it's not so easy to make spurious arguments here. As I've found out on many occasions.
What attitudes do we take for granted today which wil seem repellent to future generations? Acceptance of factory farming, perhaps, and no doubt many other things.
If they have done a good job on a by-election, they should be utterly and completely knackered by tonight.
Zac 19,000
Sarah 17,000
Labour 3,000
Right - I'm off to bed. Early start tomorrow (Good Morning leaflets, then telling) and a very long day.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/804096658040614912
Why would the ECJ not have jurisdiction in EU matters?
Good heavens! That's a bridge I thought he'd crossed a good half decade - or more - ago.
What is it & UKIP making their male politicians look older than they are?
I was astonished to find Nigel Farage is only 52.....
I wouldn't go that far with an 1850 slaveowner. Holding slaves at all was far from universal even in the Southern States.
I think that I have read just about everything that Orwell wrote, and he certainly expressed the attitudes of his day. His female characters are particularly wooden (such as "A Clergymans Daughter" ), and his depiction of Burmese, Indians and Britons in Burma pretty hard on all parties. Part of his point in "Burmese Days" was that colonialism degrades the oppressor as much or more than the oppressed. He wrote from personal experience in this.
He was pretty hard at times on the working class, the problem of the poor being that they smell, for example! Nonetheless he did some astonishing things to speak up for Socialism, against both Capitalism and Communism. He demonstrated a Socialism that was patriotic, but anti-colonialist, at a time of flagwaving imperialist jingoism. He also went off to fight freely, and at great personal risk for Republican Spain. He was no armchair warrior.
The character that I think most demonstrates his own duality is Gordon Comstock in "Keep the Aspidistra Flying", rebelling against the world that produced him.
That said, I agree with OGH that predicting a win is odd expectation management. If they win, they'll get loads of kudos anyway. If they don't, they'll be seen as falling short of their expectations. Either way it's an odd by-election and I'm not sure it will be very influential elsewhere.
The Ladbrokes 9/4 looks very tempting.
I will be happy to eat those words Friday morning if needs be.
I'd actually like to see the LDs win in Richmond. But, I think Goldsmith will win a marginal victory.
Unrelated. With luck the Ukraine will stay out of the news over the next few days but may not.
On Boris - I've met him, very briefly. He appeared (and appears) to be a facsimile of a friend of my fathers from a very similar background. Gifted intellectually - but learned to hide it under cover of being a clown to avoid bullying at school. In later life the clown thing continued as a mask to observe the world behind....
On Orwell - the "working class smell" thing - he wrote -
“That was what we were taught – the lower classes smell. And here, obviously, you are at an impassable barrier. For no feeling of like or dislike is quite so fundamental as a physical feeling. Race hatred, religious hatred, differences of education, of temperament, of intellect, even differences of moral code, can be got over, but physical repulsion cannot. You can have affection for a murderer or a sodomite, but you cannot have affection for a man whose breath stinks – habitually stinks, I mean. However well you may wish him, however much you may admire his mind and character, if his breath stinks he is horrible and in your heart of hearts you will hate him. It may not greatly matter if the average middle-class person is brought up to believe that the working classes are ignorant, lazy drunken, boorish and dishonest; it is when he is brought up to believe that they are dirty that the harm is done.”
As usual, the short version of the quote reverses the meaning.
There is a strange little industry in trying to prove Orwell was evil/liar/rightwing, on the left. One of my favourites was the story of Claude Simon (the French Nobel Prize winner for literature) who spent a great deal of effort on trying to prove that Homage to Catalonia was all fake. Among other things he tried to claim that the first sentence was made up - except there is photographic proof that it was true....
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/well-pay-for-this-bumbling-approach-to-brexit-9l7drxjrp
Given their current national polling even getting close would be a good result for the Lib Dems. It is hard not to wish them well.
May is really in a near impossible situation.
Even if you believe the cause is right, we are embarked on a hugely complicated endeavour, an unwinding that should take a decade or more.
We do so with no allies. None.
With the civil service and 48pc of the country against.
With only the scale of the economic downside in dispute (no-one serious predicts a Brexit boon).
And while the international security situation looks rather more fragile than it did this time last year.
It would need a Solomon, a Bismarck, or a Churchill.
I said at the outset that May ought to have guaranteed the rights of EU citizens currently in the UK (goodwill) and set a course in favour of the closest possible economic relationship with the EU consistent with our parliamentary sovreignty (the right tone for business and impossible to argue with).
Further, she ought to have set expectations on the timescales of Brexit, and spent the last several months devising a robust plan for *how* to exit.
This plan ought or have put to parliamentary vote, not for legislative approval but to gain political legitimacy.
Instead she has burned precious political capital and goodwill here and abroad by appointing Johnson, her ill considered conference speech, and by setting a timescale for exercising Article 50 that may not be compatible with our constitution.
The candidacies need to be presented between today and December 15.
Eachcandidate from the socialist party (PS) needs the support of a fixed number of party MPs (19) or local councillors (66) or mayors (10) or mambers of the national executive (15).
Representatives of small parties allied to the PS are directly accepted as candidates.
Arnaud Montebourg and Benoit Hamon, both form the left-wing of the party and both former ministers of Hollande, have already officially deposited their supporters names and are officially candidates.
Marie Noelle Lienemann (yet another left-wing member and former minister) should also get the support she needs. Gerard Filoche (from the most leftist faction) probably not.
Francois de Rugy (Parti ecologiste), Jean-Luc Benhamias (Front democrate) and Pierre Larrouturou (Nouvelle donne), présidents of their respective micro-parties allied to the PS, wwill be directly accepted.
Of all these declared candidates, only Montebourg is considered to have a chance.
But the main suspense now is whether/when Hollande will announce his candidacy and if he will try to kill the primary. Valls would have to go through the primary anyway.
My guess is that Hollande will announce his candidacy this weekend. It will look absurd if he tries to avoid the primary but it is by no means impossible.
The challenge for any primary winner will be to deal with the 6 other candidates from the left: 3 far-left candidates (Arthaud, Poutou, Mélenchon), the Green (Jadot), the Radical (Pinel) and Macron (who still says he is left wing)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/nov/30/eu-citizens-in-uk-home-office-residency-applications-right-to-remain-before-brexit-talks?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Boris is an open minded internationalist at heart, so his motivation for soft Brexit is very different to Hammonds rather bean counting Soft Brexit, and completely at odds with the Hard Brexiteers. They too are split between the free-trading capitalists and the socially conservatives who want to fight globalisation. It is an unholy mess and May seems unable to get a grip on it. The longer she dithers, the more likely it will descend into a humiliating farce.
A one line A50 bill and aiming for hard Brexit, followed by a few transitional negotiations would have been a far better way to go. Once that deal was done we could then reconstruct something useful on the bombsite.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/30/boris-johnson-promotes-churchill-factor-book-official-visit-serbia?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
But I think you're underestimating the difficulties she faces from the Conservative party... she had to get their trust first that she will deliver Brexit (especially having won in a coronation)... To get the trust she needed senior Brexiteers in senior positions and she needed to not sound like she was delaying Brexit..
I think she has given Boris as senior a position as she possibly could... whilst limiting his actual power as far as possible. I imagine Johnson will be sidelined once serious negotiations get underway. Some reports already that EU leaders are ignoring what he says....
I think if she had come out and said- Brexit will be very hard... may take a decade... can't yet say when A50 will be enacted- she would have had a rebellion on her hands.
Mr. Submarine, between that and Boris' apparent muttering to foreign envoys that he supports free movement, he might want to consider who he's batting for.
Edited extra bit: and for whom he is batting*.
He has no real convictions, and little courage in them, and his much celebrated havering over in and out was really the act of a man summoning the pluck to stab his friend in the back.
He's not overly intelligent either. Spraying around Latin epithets may win plaudits in the Eton Common Room, but it doesn't amount to real intellectual heft. Blair, Brown, Thatcher and Hague were/are all smarter, without being full on wonks.
Up until conference she had immense political capital.
Looking at the polls, she still does, if she was minded to use it.
The UDI faction can rant and foam, but there is still a majority of a kind in parliament for sobriety and sanity. One benefit of Corbyn is that a good number of Labour MPs would be quite willing to break ranks if a non-partisan motion could be constructed.
Indeed, it's possible Corbyn would support such a thing. He clearly has even less of a clue what his own policy on Brexit is than May.
And don't these EU citizens who want residency in Britain know that that the British economy is about to receive the four horsemen of the apocalypse ?
This isn't Witney, where there was no history of LD strength. This was an LD seat 11 years ago. Despite the strong demographic trends since, there's a propensity for support and no doubt who the main opposition is.
It's a metropolitan area and the Labour vote is small but very squeezable. Heathrow is a busted flush, the libs will have told everybody that this is a chance to make a point on Brexit.
Reports i am getting and i am sure Barnesian can confirm this, is that there are upward of 1000 lib dems going to be in Richmond knocking up and on the GOTV trail.
If true Zac is in big trouble because he hasnt got half of that help today.