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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Lib Dems could be making a massive mistake claiming they’re on target to win Richmond Park tomorrow
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it could mean Farron gets replaced by a traffic bollard and LD chances will improve
A halfway decent showing, even if the press may point and laugh at their not winning, is massive. Coming second is big news anyway. They'll be showing re-runs of the 'Mummy's Return' all over Twickenham if that happens.
Whatever the result I'd suggest that the LD vote won't be much more than marginally positive about their current leader. Clegg and little Cleggs are what the LDs need.
But are those the numbers ?
Lib Dem commissioned
West Aberdeen and Kincardine, Hornsea and Wood Green polls were both out at GE2015...
I hope these numbers are an attempt at unvarnished truth
5:35PM
May can't guarantee EU citizens their rights* here until our citizens in the EU are guaranteed theirs. Otherwise we'd be taken to the cleaners.
The EU can't do a deal on this alone and let the UK start salami slicing the negotiations or else it would be taken to the cleaners.
The reality is all ex pats on both sides are bargaining chips. Just as individuals jobs, rights and freedoms are bargaining chips. It's a negotiation about the future of people by people. Of course some of those people are bargaining chips. Pretending otherwise is ridiculous.
Any member has the sovereign right to leave so I don't " blame " the UK for this. Though as we are unilaterally withdrawing it is our responsibility. We should be honest about it. We voted for it.
*Is anyone suggesting EU citizens here should keep *all* there current rights ? Voting ? Non discrimination vis a vis UK Citizens ? Benefits ? In the later case that would be more generous than Cameron's deal which we rejected. The whole point of the referendum result was to restore our right to treat EU citizens differently than we can now. All else is bed wetting by the victors.
It might also discourage voters....
* I may have insufficient imagination
Sticking with +30 Lib Dem/+130 Zac odd.
Trump constantly talked up his polling and it didn't do him much harm.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/25/the-richmond-park-battle-with-zac-is-an-absolutely-must-win-for-the-lds/
e.g. to Labour voters "the Lib Dems are tiny. they're not a threat to anyone"
The Lib Dems claiming that they are ahead just a day before voting, rather puts them in an awkward position, should they come even a close second. Not a particularly clever move, imho.
Can’t quite put my finger on it, but there is something distinctly odd about Sarah Olney.
Actually maybe they steal the worst bits from the other parties - Labour economics and Tory care.
Clearly the stage is set for a great Liberal leader to emerge...
Surely liberty instead of the Nanny State must have the support of >8% of the population?
Bonkers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38160291
*) Not publicise their internal polling, but use the data (if applicable) to target GOTV.
*) Not release the polling, but say that it's really close. Which is often said when it is not, and might get the Goldsmith vote out as well.
*) Release the full poll data as if it was a normal BCP poll, so people can analyse it as usual.
This release information to the Guardian, but not the full information, and saying they're winning does not make much sense. For one thing, even if it's accurate it's so close that it might encourage lacklustre Goldsmith voters out who don't want a Lib Dem MP.
But the main thought: it's polling. Haven't we learnt anything yet?
I suppose if they believe they're in with this sort of chance, they'd want to announce it ahead of time to support all their other election claims - especially since the recognised pollsters haven't exactly covered themselves with glory recently.
But it is very reminiscent of the famed LD bar charts. Perhaps, just issuing numbers is trialling a departure from that established practice?
And good evening, everyone.
Be interesting to see how this goes.
Then we have claiming you're ahead and tramping around with Bob Geldof. I can only assume there's some good reason; to my simple mind these are both big risks the day before polling day.
Everything is sui generis here and utterly out of proportion to whats at stake. A midterm by-election for an atypical seat perhaps for a few months only until #Mayday .
It's a much sterner test for the LDs now, in particular because:
1. There are still the lingering consequences that put off potential tactical voters from the left by virtue of their having allowed Cameron and Osborne to reign supreme for five years when they could at any time have pulled the plug.
2. They have defined themselves so clearly as the most unashamedly Europhile of the political parties. With political debate still dominated by Brexit that's enough to put off many with even mildly Eurosceptic leanings (including those who may have voted Remain through gritted teeth while disliking what the EU has evolved into).
In local government by-elections, national stances that put off a significant chunk of potential support may not matter so much, but in a parliamentary by-election it probably does. Even in a context where the main opposition party is going nowhere they still cannot break out of single figures in national polls. I expect them to do respectably, but to fall significantly short on Thursday.
He phoned to ask how likely I was to vote for Caroline Johnson in the local by election. I explained I was a departing UKIP member who would be returning to voting Conservative for no end of reasons including the pointlessness of post-referendum UKIP, the specific UKIP candidate in Sleaford & NH and the fact I am generally (although not entirely) happy so far with the way May is handling the post referendum politics. Two votes back to the Tories as my wife feels the same.
To comment further on your point (2); however awful recent events may seem to the liberal mindset, surely it's only real liberals who share it? I mean, the mindset you describe won't be a motivating factor for the majority of the electorate here.
https://goo.gl/images/M68Tld
So if the Lib Dems put on 25% of their vote they should laughed at. Come on. Get real.
By the way I hope Mrs Olney wins but Goldsmith is the incumbent, that gives him a tremendous head start. I expect him to hold by 10%. If he does not then it will be a landslide for the Lib Dems by any calculation, which will inevitably impact nationally and probably propel them into second place at Sleaford..
Alot more chance.
One or two waspish comments about the physical appearance of the LD candidate - perhaps one or two of the anti-LDs are a shade rattled.
Seriously, I said on the day Zac resigned I thought the LDs wouldn't beat him in a straight fight. He had a significant personal vote which would transcend his "Independent" status and was well entrenched. Nonetheless, the LD campaign has thrown the proverbial kitchen sink at this and in a sense this is Farron's Eastbourne - victory here and the party is back in the game in a way it hasn't been since the 2015 GE.
On topic, is it a good move ? As a motivational tool for both sides and all sides, saying you are just ahead is better than saying you are well behind. It's canvass returns though which of course should be taken with a bucket of salt but those running the LD campaign will know the area and know the electorate well. The party has had a presence in Richmond for decades and even when not running the council has retained a strong local identity.
I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow and I suspect very few, if anyone, does.
On top of all that, they would need water just to live !
The plan behind taking H2 from earth is that you can then react with CO2 on Mars [ plentiful ] with a catalyst and produce CH4 [ methane ] and O2. Of course, H2 is less heavy than water [approx. 1/9th ].
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That's right. But again you get to the problem that transporting the hydrogen will be massively expensive when it's available, with difficulty, on Mars.
A nuclear reactor would be ideal, but there's no way Musk, as a private individual, would get the money to do that, or permission. So it'll have to be solar panels and batteries. Now, can you think of anyone close to Musk with experience of solar panels and batteries?
There are so many problems and pitfalls with Musk's grand plans. But I can't help but be drawn in by them. At least someone's trying.
Have you seen piccies of the carbon-fibre LOX tank they've been built and are testing?
http://i.imgur.com/YW4hvJ5.jpg
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I am looking forward to super efficient batteries [ of course, lighter as well ] and super-conductive means of transporting electricity.
The first will take care of emergency spikes [ half-time during the world cup final ] and the second will enable the Sahara to light up Europe.
Both are on the way. After the 2022 nuclear ban, the Germans will have to bring electricity from the Baltic coast to the South.
Getting in the "well, he was REALLY the Tory candidate all along" excuses early I see.
This could be a boost for digital money.
Clearly nonsense. Plenty of people enter the gurdwara wearing leather belts and watchstraps, for example. I know I do.
The last poll from Richmond Park had Goldsmith with a 27 point lead with the LD at 29%, going from 29 to 47 in just a single month is extreme given that Labour was already at 10% so not much to squeeze from.
They would have needed to squeeze every single last Labour voter and get 1/4th of the Goldsmith vote in 30 days time.
Serious betting tip, if anyone is interested.
Just put on a bet at 33/1 at Coral for Rob Johnson and the Corbynistas as christmas number 1. This is a charity record for the Tressel Trust. Its not actually that bad as far as novelty songs go, quite catchy, I could quite see it easily becoming viral. 2400 views so far on youtube, so some way to go.
If you think that labour now have 500,000 members, if one in four bought the single it would sell more than the 127,000 that got the NHS choir to number one last year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJmo2_a4RJ8
https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC/status/804042923377442816
I don't even see a reason anyone would care to deny it, even if they think the LDs are whining and they should have been able to win anyway.