politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Why Trump won and what’ll he do in his first 100 days
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined once more by White House Correspondent and US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua.
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Didn't the EU just sign a free trade agreement with Canada?
Clinton was barely mentioned, and Sanders was written off.
He has been a decent Secretary of State.
The Democrat's big problem will be containing anger. Voter suppression is going to intensify over the coming years and there will be a white supremacist in the office next door to the president in the White House. These things are gifts for people who crave violent confrontation.
Although KP in the podcast spoke of LotO, that is not really the right term for next candidate, and nothing at all was said about the Democrat leadership in Congress, or for that matter, what happens to the DNC after the email revelations that it was less than neutral last time.
It's also a role for which, as a superb orator with limited administrative talent, he is far better suited than the Presidency itself.
It does however make it that much harder for a new potential President to emerge.
The question is less what it will be than how bad the knock on effects will be.
Former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron will finally declare officially his candidacy this morning. All press reports indicate he will refuse to take part to the left-wing primary.
Some polls put him quite high (around 20%) just after he resigned from the government in September but it was generally in the most favorable (and unrealistic) scenarios - such as Sarkozy for the right, no centrist (Bayrou) candidacy) and no socialist in the race.
In more realistic scenarios, he would probably contend with Bayrou and Juppe or Fillon for the centre and centre-right vote, while competing with a socialist (Valls, Hollande or Montebourg) for the centre-left.
In this kind of contest, his base seems to be around 12 to 15%. He probably would needd to add around 10% to reach the second round.
He will be very strongly supported by centre-left media and he has raised quite a lot of money (around 3 million euros) without the help of any established party but I remain doubtful of his long-term appeal. His main problem is that most of his message is identified with the centre-right but he tends to call himself a left-winger. His only private job (investment banker) does not resonate very well with traditional socialist voters.
Even if his candidacy does not come as a surprise to anyone, his odds could tighten now that he officially enters the race.
The party organisation will get quite a shakeup - the Sanders wing is already making moves to oust state chairs in several states where he won the primary overwhelmingly, and the 'super delegates' voted for Clinton. The national chair will change shortly.
A candidate for President next time round very likely won't emerge until much nearer the primary process.
Worth remembering though that insurgencies are often led by an establishment turncoat like Farage or Trump with no real historical connection to the communities that they claim to speak for.
And if you can't, what are their chances in 2020?
They can then select a Pres and VP candidate who have 18 months to be that Leader of the Opposition, shadowing Trump and getting themselves on the news every night.
A header on this and the candidates relative merits to bettors would be very welcome.
What will be interesting is whether Paul Ryan keeps the role of Speaker. His relationship with Trump is pretty problematic but that may not matter. I doubt Trump has enough supporters in the House to enforce his choice as Speaker. If Ryan keeps the post and the profile and can deliver a conservative agenda that works he will be very well placed next time.
None of this tells us who the next Democratic candidate will be. They hold relatively few governorships so that is the most likely pond in which to fish. Unless they can find their own TV celebrity of course.
The US is a much bigger stage than the UK, and there are many ways to build a national profile without being 'leader of the opposition', a concept which doesn't comfortably sit in US politics.
As far as the DNC chair is concerned, it looks as though it will probably go to Keith Ellison over Howard Dean.
Biden didn't have Clinton's negatives and would have been able to run a more positive campaign. I'd have voted for him over Trump, that wasn't the case with the corrupt Clinton.
Ryan has just been unanimously re-elected as House speaker.
Great news, people. The best news. I've written a book, and it's so good, so good. You're gonna love it. It has the best words. I have the best words because I'm a great author. We're making fantasy great again, people.
Amazon US - https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01N8UF799/
Amazon UK - https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N8UF799/
Kobo - https://store.kobobooks.com/en-ca/ebook/kingdom-asunder-the-bloody-crown-trilogy-volume-one
Barnes & Noble - http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/books/1125052815?ean=2940153811246
Edited extra bit: ahem, forgot the slightly more serious concise description.
It's Kingdom Asunder, the first part of a fantasy trilogy, up for pre-order (out 24 November). Lower price applies from now until 8 December.
It's crammed full of ruthless she-wolves, scheming traitors, and grim knights. Fun for all the family [in seriousness, it isn't. Like knife-wrench, it's not for kids].
"More Americans now die from drugs than from guns or in car accidents, and increasingly, reports Ian Pannell, the victims are young, white and middle class." (BBC News)
Trump's said he would deal with the heroin epidemic, something I never heard Clinton say anything about once. The MSM shamefully never really covered this issue with the prescience or attention it deserved pre-election.
The BBC to their credit are actually now looking at some of the lesser reported issues and angles that helped Trump win.
Oprah is a possibility.
He seriously upset a lot of pompous and not very intelligent celebrities e.g. Alec Baldwin.
If I think of any more over the next few years, I'll let you know.
Although it would not necessarily be good for the UK I also think it is way past time that the US had a serious look at whether the unthinking bias in favour of free trade is necessarily a good thing. It is a shibboleth that needs rethinking.
Trump also made some good points earlier in his campaign about tax reform, particularly of the Silicon Valley giants who hide profits overseas. I heard less about that latterly but he may well come back to it. He is an expert on tax avoidance after all.
Mr. Sandpit, that's right people, Mr. Sandpit knows the truth. He knows it. He recognises greatness when he sees it.
Mr. D, so huge, so huge. They're gonna be great.
Judges set for 15% pay rise to tackle recruitment crisis.
High Court judges are in line to receive a pay rise of 12 to 15 per cent, angering other public servants and trade unions.
The proposed rise, which has been approved by ministers, emerged in court papers yesterday. The 106 High Court judges receive £179,768 a year. The increase, to take effect from April, will add between £21,572.16 and £26,965.20 to that.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/judges-set-for-15-per-cent-pay-riseto-tackle-recruitment-crisis-wljxdnkzc
Brexit Britain needs to know: is Emperor May naked?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/16/brexit-britain-emperor-may-naked-strategy-eu-withdrawal
I'll also take your advice and not read it to the young 'un. Mind, I was playing some Looney Toon cartoons the other day, and I stopped when one of the war time ones had creatures saying Sieg Heil along with the salute. He's probably a little too young to see that ...
In other news, I see Ron Dennis has been ousted from McLaren. A sad day IMO.
As we discussed yesterday it really is time that the framework of what we want from the EU became clear.
Emperor can be gender neutral
Edit: Boston Globe suggestion is here
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/05/10/obama-for-supreme-court/ThoNpUFNjAL5PRDuIYrgMJ/story.html
Mr. Jessop, thanks
Oh dear
Be careful what you wish for.