Blimey. Tea Party of the Left on the move. Win elections or blow things up:
"Some will pursue the strategy of using social movements to elections while others go down the dark path of '70s guerrilla insurrection. I advocate winning elections.”
Reflecting on the upcoming A50 Supreme Court case, ISTM that a finding that A50 can be withdrawn or revoked is worth much more to the remainers than actually winning the case.
Winning the case gets them a vote on a three-line bill that will probably sail through both houses and the only issue is whether the debate and any amendments puts the government on the spot and forces/reveals some choices.
A ruling that A50 can be dropped at any point before actual exit opens up a whole range of possibilities, depending on future events and future public opinion, over at least the next two years and potentially beyond.
Is it even possible for them to find that? IIUC both sides had been stipulating that it couldn't, although this may not be true. Or has the government changed its argument?
I thought there was a suggestion that the Government were going to change tack and claim it was not irrevocable.
This puzzles me, too. No political leader running for office for any party in the UK could get away with anything close to this and hope to have an ongoing career, let alone win an election: https://twitter.com/OwensDamien/status/798319397337178112
Which is why it is always a mistake not to think of the US as a truly foreign country, not just another european state with guns.
As Dr Fox pointed out, the EU might not be able to force us out of any trade deal which we signed while we have been members as it could lead to compensation claims against the EU. What might happen is the UK will stay in all of the existing trade deals and then add to them once we're out on a bilateral basis.
We're not forced out; we're choosing to go. Article 50 exists to clarify this point: Country chooses to leave; you have two years to negotiate anything you wish to include in the Exit Agreement; all other treaties lapse at the end of the two years. It's a gun to our head but it has the merit of being extremely clear.
I doubt Liam Fox is correct about the EU being liable for compensation to Korea in the case where Britain leaves. I would want to see the clause in the several hundred page long FTA document before believing him. Korea and the EU are renegotiating their FTA. It may be the case that Korea is demanding better terms from the EU because the UK is no longer included. If so, the EU may agree those terms or stick to the current agreement.
The 1500 pages of the EU FTA with Canada are overwhelming devoted to quotas and exclusions. There is a limit on the number of Christmas trees Canada can export to the EU, for example. The UK would originally have taken a large portion of the Christmas trees and other quota items. The quota will now apply just to the rest of the EU. If Britain joins CETA would it have its own quota or share the EU one, as intended when it was set? There is a raft of these kind of issues to sort out, which is why FTAs take the best part of a decade to sort out. In this case there could be sequencing where Canada waits for the UK to settle its arrangement with the EU. If so, we're potentially waiting more than a decade. I don't see a problem with a Brexited Britain having a CETA type deal with Canada. That's one of the easier ones and maybe it will be done on a relatively accelerated timetable.
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
On current polling TM could have the job for life is she wants...
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
They might, but it's very unlikely. It would require a national catastrophe with no other alternative.
You should read Tim Shipman's book 'All Out War'. It becomes pretty clear that Cameron's objective, with Hague's encouragement, was to reset the UK's position in the EU and win the referendum so resoundingly he could then say to Cash and Jenkin, "sorry guys, it's over."
He realised this had failed months before the vote, because even a close Remain result wouldn't have settled it. What would have is seriously delivering on Bloomberg.
This puzzles me, too. No political leader running for office for any party in the UK could get away with anything close to this and hope to have an ongoing career, let alone win an election: https://twitter.com/OwensDamien/status/798319397337178112
Mr. Eagles, the French system makes it very hard, I think, for Le Pen to win.
Yes, the all but in name AV voting system the French use to elect POTFR makes it very difficult for Le Pen to win.
Has pb ever had a French AV thread?
But the French don't use AV.
The French use a system where the lowest ranked candidates are eliminated until we have two, and then winner gets overs 50% of votes.
Tell me how that's not AV ?
The candidates are eliminated all at once, not one at a time. The runoff is held on a separate date, making it a staged election.
Nothing like AV, much more like a simplified version of the Tory party leader MP election.
But the Tory election system is AV in all but name.
Grrr I have to go into a meeting now, just when we were discussing AV.
It really isn't mate, it's exhaustive ballot.
Key difference: in AV you vote once for all candidates in your preferred rank order, but are blind to the impact of your preferences. In exhaustive ballot you vote for one candidate only but can switch as you see the impact of the numbers and the elimination as the the vote proceeds round by round.
The systems are slightly different, but still very similar. AV does it all in one round, so could be said to be more efficient. Nobody would suggest having runoff elections for council elections, but for Presidential elections, which are much rarer they could make sense.
The difference is that (a) you only vote for one candidate at a time (not all of them) and (b) you can revisit that choice, each time, as you see the cards land.
The key difference with AV is being able to change your vote as candidates are eliminated, which in theory prevents a less popular third candidate from being elected (although it didn't in 2001 because it was basically a three-way tie)
AV also, by ensuring that the winner has a majority of the final preferences in their seat, ensures that a less popular third candidate is not elected. It is less powerful than a second round system, because the latter presents the voter with the straight and real choice whereas in AV it is hypothetical, yet provided under AV the majority of anti-Le Pen voters put her bottom, after numbering everyone else, the effect is the same.
When talking about the Dems going Corbyn now, people should be wary of seeing too many similarities between Sanders and Corbyn, and hence the future direction of the Democrat party. If Sanders is the new direction that is wholly different to a Corbyn route.
Sanders has consistently focused on economic issues and is the type of candidate that would perform well in the rust belt. His problem in the primaries was that he was unable to speak 'convincingly' on things like BLM and identity politics. Sanders is exactly the route the Dems need to take now.
Corbyn doesn't care about economics, he's interested in foreign policy and all sorts of minority causes that don't decide elections. under him labour have followed that identity politics route. That is the path the Dems need to avoid (but is the one they are currently on).
If anything, Clinton resembles Corbyn more in the focus /priorities assigned to campaign issues.
Sanders has similar issues with his past to Corbyn, apparently. They'd have doomed him in the Rustbelt, I think.
Worst of all, the Republicans also had video of Sanders at a 1985 rally thrown by the leftist Sandinista government in Nicaragua where half a million people chanted, “Here, there, everywhere/the Yankee will die,’’ while President Daniel Ortega condemned “state terrorism” by America. Sanders said, on camera, supporting the Sandinistas was “patriotic.”
Trump is now 1,150,000 and 0.9% behind Clinton on the popular vote.
OT, the verdict on "why Trump won" should be that he didn't, but that the US electoral system is set up to pretend that he did.
Time to re-post Trump's tweets from when it looked like but Obama would win but the Republican would get the popular vote. The guy is such a hypocrite, truly a post-truth President.
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
Do you really think there is a good chance of TM resigning or being forced out in the next five years? It is of course possible that will happen, but a good chance? I think not.
As Dr Fox pointed out, the EU might not be able to force us out of any trade deal which we signed while we have been members as it could lead to compensation claims against the EU. What might happen is the UK will stay in all of the existing trade deals and then add to them once we're out on a bilateral basis.
I would have thought the bigger issue is that most of the EU FTA deals have EU courts as arbiters in disputes. (Although not CETA.)
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
They might, but it's very unlikely. It would require a national catastrophe with no other alternative.
You should read Tim Shipman's book 'All Out War'. It becomes pretty clear that Cameron's objective, with Hague's encouragement, was to reset the UK's position in the EU and win the referendum so resoundingly he could then say to Cash and Jenkin, "sorry guys, it's over."
He realised this had failed months before the vote, because even a close Remain result wouldn't have settled it. What would have is seriously delivering on Bloomberg.
I'll have to check it out. If he really believed that REMAIN would win so decisively that it would settle the matter henceforth the man was an even bigger fool than I thought...
There were so many reasons why 2016 was never going to be 1975. You'd think someone whose strongest point was "allegedly" PR would have known this.
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
Not necessarily the economy tanking. He thinks Brexit will be a huge mess and expects the Party will turn to him to sort it out, as someone who wasn't associated with promises of the New Order that were made about Brexit.
He may be wrong about that too, of course. Not wrong about Brexit being a mess, that's pretty much nailed on. Wrong about the Conservative Party turning to him in desperation.
Trump is now 1,150,000 and 0.9% behind Clinton on the popular vote.
OT, the verdict on "why Trump won" should be that he didn't, but that the US electoral system is set up to pretend that he did.
Time to re-post Trump's tweets from when it looked like but Obama would win but the Republican would get the popular vote. The guy is such a hypocrite, truly a post-truth President.
Boris too has lied and lied, in both his political and personal lives. Nowadays there seems to be a get out clause for some larger-than-life politicians that enables them to avoid being held to what in previous times would have been seen as basic standards.
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
On current polling TM could have the job for life is she wants...
Bets on next PM are likely to be open for a long time yet. If she gets stuck with her own party, she can force an election and be returned with a 100 majority.
This puzzles me, too. No political leader running for office for any party in the UK could get away with anything close to this and hope to have an ongoing career, let alone win an election: https://twitter.com/OwensDamien/status/798319397337178112
Och, he was just being 'bitchy'.
Also in depicting political opponents as thieves and common criminals, Trump was appalling here.
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
She sacked much of the talent
Really? Who did she sack who had such great talent?
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
She sacked much of the talent
Well Osborne and Gove destroyed themselves to be fair...
This puzzles me, too. No political leader running for office for any party in the UK could get away with anything close to this and hope to have an ongoing career, let alone win an election: https://twitter.com/OwensDamien/status/798319397337178112
Och, he was just being 'bitchy'.
Also in depicting political opponents as thieves and common criminals, Trump was appalling here.
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
She sacked much of the talent
Really? Who did she sack who had such great talent?
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
Do you really think there is a good chance of TM resigning or being forced out in the next five years? It is of course possible that will happen, but a good chance? I think not.
I do. There are so many unknowns out there and a lot of things that can go wrong. The cabinet she appointed is not exactly humming with talent. She looks very safe right now, but so did Cameron this time last year.
As Dr Fox pointed out, the EU might not be able to force us out of any trade deal which we signed while we have been members as it could lead to compensation claims against the EU. What might happen is the UK will stay in all of the existing trade deals and then add to them once we're out on a bilateral basis.
I would have thought the bigger issue is that most of the EU FTA deals have EU courts as arbiters in disputes. (Although not CETA.)
Trying to unpick and renegotiate all of this is the most value destructive proposition I've ever come across.
Boris too has lied and lied, in both his political and personal lives. Nowadays there seems to be a get out clause for some larger-than-life politicians that enables them to avoid being held to what in previous times would have been seen as basic standards.
Someone wrote something recently (I don't have the link) about the crossover between celebrity and politician enables them to be judged by different standards
This puzzles me, too. No political leader running for office for any party in the UK could get away with anything close to this and hope to have an ongoing career, let alone win an election: https://twitter.com/OwensDamien/status/798319397337178112
Och, he was just being 'bitchy'.
Also in depicting political opponents as thieves and common criminals, Trump was appalling here.
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
She sacked much of the talent
She survived the referendum; the others didn't. That's a talent in its own right. My personal opinion is that an instinct for self-preservation isn't a basis for being a good leader. It certainly isn't enough on its own.
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
Do you really think there is a good chance of TM resigning or being forced out in the next five years? It is of course possible that will happen, but a good chance? I think not.
I do. There are so many unknowns out there and a lot of things that can go wrong. The cabinet she appointed is not exactly humming with talent. She looks very safe right now, but so did Cameron this time last year.
If you know anything about the Tory party its that no leader is truly safe. Every single one had always been one bad decision away from being dumped. That is what is keeping May on her toes, she knows that if she disappoints enough MPs they will write to Graham Brady and trigger a leadership election.
Trump is now 1,150,000 and 0.9% behind Clinton on the popular vote.
OT, the verdict on "why Trump won" should be that he didn't, but that the US electoral system is set up to pretend that he did.
Time to re-post Trump's tweets from when it looked like but Obama would win but the Republican would get the popular vote. The guy is such a hypocrite, truly a post-truth President.
Boris too has lied and lied, in both his political and personal lives. Nowadays there seems to be a get out clause for some larger-than-life politicians that enables them to avoid being held to what in previous times would have been seen as basic standards.
Everyone bithches about the system when they lose. Witness the Remoaners in the UK and the Snowflakes rioting in America (when they can't get their puppies and colourg books/ comfort blankets). Obama gave them all short shrift "We won.You lost. Get over it" - it applies just as much now as in 2008.
(About 8 million fewer voters voted for Clinton in 2016 than for Obama in 2008)
And, as Trump himself noted, if the election was about the popular vote then far more campaign time (for both candidates) would have been spent in the major conurbations. The flyover states would have kept their monikcer. Whether Trump would have won or not is open to question. However I would expect a significantly increased turnout when every vote counts.
Boris too has lied and lied, in both his political and personal lives. Nowadays there seems to be a get out clause for some larger-than-life politicians that enables them to avoid being held to what in previous times would have been seen as basic standards.
Someone wrote something recently (I don't have the link) about the crossover between celebrity and politician enables them to be judged by different standards
Trump has taken it to the extreme by being sufficiently shameless to accuse others of faults he obviously shares himself. At least Boris doesn't go out of his way to accuse his rivals of lying or not keeping their promises.
Closed questions don't sound like a bad idea to me (Obviously they all shouldn't be) - far less opportunity to score political points, but the PM should be able to properly answer the question
This puzzles me, too. No political leader running for office for any party in the UK could get away with anything close to this and hope to have an ongoing career, let alone win an election: https://twitter.com/OwensDamien/status/798319397337178112
Och, he was just being 'bitchy'.
Also in depicting political opponents as thieves and common criminals, Trump was appalling here.
"Vice President-elect Mike Pence reportedly ordered the removal of all lobbyists from president-elect Donald Trump's transition team, The Wall Street Journal wrote on Tuesday night.
The decision was one of Pence's first since formally taking over the team's lead role. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was abruptly dismissed from the post last week.
Daily drip, drip, drip of stories to make it seem like the country is in a crisis. Delay, delay, delay Brexit by all means necessary... Hope for an economic crash in the next few months.
Then we all fall at the feet of Osborne who becomes PM and keeps us in the EU (probably with added "benefits" of joining the Euro, the single European army etc.)
Blimey. Tea Party of the Left on the move. Win elections or blow things up:
"Some will pursue the strategy of using social movements to elections while others go down the dark path of '70s guerrilla insurrection. I advocate winning elections.”
No doubt the original Tea Party will be rising up again to protest against Trump's tax and spending plans, since they were always motivated by deep concern about the federal deficit.
Yes, good point. It has struck me as odd how quiet tea party have been on this. Trump is a pure RINO with respect to his plans for the deficit, which is set to blow through the roof (that's if he can get a new ceiling through congress).
Trump's presidency is likely to end in chaos.
Amazingly the Tea Party only sprang into existence and discovered it's hatred of government spending when the President had a duskier hue than normal.
"Vice President-elect Mike Pence reportedly ordered the removal of all lobbyists from president-elect Donald Trump's transition team, The Wall Street Journal wrote on Tuesday night.
The decision was one of Pence's first since formally taking over the team's lead role. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was abruptly dismissed from the post last week.
Sounds smart. Trump would do well to keep all business influence out his presidency, he won without it so doesn't need it now. The risk to him is the GOP having too much influence on him, Paul Ryan etc. Their fiscal conservatism, social conservatism, and closeness to big business aren't what will keep those Rust Belt states in the red column.
@SimonStClare - sorry, to clarify, that the general election could be called so that it would take place in 2016.
Around now I would have thought, for a pre-Xmas election.
Indeed. The mechanics of physically organising a snap election is the limitation, unless the Govt has been sneaky of course and everything is in place. – However, it would have leaked by now is my guess.
"Vice President-elect Mike Pence reportedly ordered the removal of all lobbyists from president-elect Donald Trump's transition team, The Wall Street Journal wrote on Tuesday night.
The decision was one of Pence's first since formally taking over the team's lead role. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was abruptly dismissed from the post last week.
Are lobbyists normally part of a transition team ?
I thought they were the ones that asked favours of government !
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
Do you really think there is a good chance of TM resigning or being forced out in the next five years? It is of course possible that will happen, but a good chance? I think not.
I do. There are so many unknowns out there and a lot of things that can go wrong. The cabinet she appointed is not exactly humming with talent. She looks very safe right now, but so did Cameron this time last year.
If you know anything about the Tory party its that no leader is truly safe. Every single one had always been one bad decision away from being dumped. That is what is keeping May on her toes, she knows that if she disappoints enough MPs they will write to Graham Brady and trigger a leadership election.
Yes, but her main challenger was that dreadful woman whose name I have subconsciously blanked out. That might keep her safe for a bit.
@SimonStClare - sorry, to clarify, that the general election could be called so that it would take place in 2016.
The GE 2015 started with the dissolution on 30th March for 7th May. Keeping to that timetable (which I think is in law now under FTPA) Parliament would need to be dissolved next Monday 21st Nov for an election on Thu 29th Dec.
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
They might, but it's very unlikely. It would require a national catastrophe with no other alternative.
You should read Tim Shipman's book 'All Out War'. It becomes pretty clear that Cameron's objective, with Hague's encouragement, was to reset the UK's position in the EU and win the referendum so resoundingly he could then say to Cash and Jenkin, "sorry guys, it's over."
He realised this had failed months before the vote, because even a close Remain result wouldn't have settled it. What would have is seriously delivering on Bloomberg.
Much as I admire Hague as a parliamentary performer, the man had no political judgement.
Back in the day David Cameron achieved a 28 point lead over Labour with Ipsos Mori, Mrs May has a 9% lead over a Corbyn led Labour Party.
Pull tha' bloody finger out woman.
Yep, September 2008 he had that 28% lead. And then 18 months later he'd blown it and was scrabbling around with the Lib-Dems to try and get Gordon Brown (that's Gordon Brown) out of office...
I'm not so sure. Labour's mostly been out of the news over the last month or so, whilst the government's few problems have been front-page news. There will be some Labour supporters drifting back because Labour's internal problems have quietened down.
"Vice President-elect Mike Pence reportedly ordered the removal of all lobbyists from president-elect Donald Trump's transition team, The Wall Street Journal wrote on Tuesday night.
The decision was one of Pence's first since formally taking over the team's lead role. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was abruptly dismissed from the post last week.
A shrewd move by Pence in these fibril times, especially with a hostile media attempting to set the news agenda, rather than just report it.
Daily drip, drip, drip of stories to make it seem like the country is in a crisis. Delay, delay, delay Brexit by all means necessary... Hope for an economic crash in the next few months.
Then we all fall at the feet of Osborne who becomes PM and keeps us in the EU (probably with added "benefits" of joining the Euro, the single European army etc.)
Osborne just can't help himself. Still playing the same silly games he enjoyed whilst in Number 11. Self before Country.
He'd do well to remember the reception he received at the Olympics in 2012 from a not so adoring public.
Back in the day David Cameron achieved a 28 point lead over Labour with Ipsos Mori, Mrs May has a 9% lead over a Corbyn led Labour Party.
Pull tha' bloody finger out woman.
Yep, September 2008 he had that 28% lead. And then 18 months later he'd blown it and was scrabbling around with the Lib-Dems to try and get Gordon Brown (that's Gordon Brown) out of office...
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
Who does succeed May? There must be a good chance of her going within the next five years. If the cabinet is anything to go by the Tory talent pool is extremely shallow.
Do you really think there is a good chance of TM resigning or being forced out in the next five years? It is of course possible that will happen, but a good chance? I think not.
I do. There are so many unknowns out there and a lot of things that can go wrong. The cabinet she appointed is not exactly humming with talent. She looks very safe right now, but so did Cameron this time last year.
There is a hint of legal problems coming from the Supreme Court:
1. Is A50 reversible? This would have to be referred to the ECJ.
2. The Great Repeal Bill might have to be passed prior to A50 as the rights being lost under the treaties would have to be addressed with specific legislation. Perhaps they cannot simply disappear as envisioned in a simple one clause bill to invoke A50.
The delay and complexity that either of these matters might create could lead to a 'why are we bothering?' question from some soft leavers. Mrs May personally seems to have become a hardline leaver.
Bedfordshire Police has had a massive custard pie in the face this morning with its new Islamphobia campaign.
The logo they used apparently included the one-finger raised gesture ISIS use. Lots of pix of this gesture were sent to them and now they've deleted the whole thing.
Apart from the PC idiocy of thought policing about a religion - one would expect them to spot such a gesture on such a touchy subject.
If Remain had won, Cameron resigned in 2017, and Osborne installed as leader via a vote of Tory MPs that also dodged the membership ballot, I somehow doubt we'd be hearing as much of this argument from him.
Osborne needs purging for disloyalty.
He feels he has already been purged.
Not to hard to work out what he's up to. He thinks May might fail and the economy could greatly suffer, in which case a grateful Tory party and nation will turn to him to clear up the mess, form the closest possible economic relationship with the EU, Brexit in name only, and then return him as PM at a GE.
Unlikely indeed, but not as long as a 200/1 shot.
Gove would probably be part of his team. Possible Chancellor. That's why I think May should on-board him to help in 2017.
But she probably won't.
What amuses me is that the situation we now find ourselves in is entirely of Cameron and Osborne's own making. All Theresa May is trying to do is deal with the mess and fall-out these two clowns landed us in.
Yet we're expected to believe a grateful Tory Party and then UK will eventually fall down at the feet of George Osborne and sweep him to victory...
Yeah right...
They might, but it's very unlikely. It would require a national catastrophe with no other alternative.
You should read Tim Shipman's book 'All Out War'. It becomes pretty clear that Cameron's objective, with Hague's encouragement, was to reset the UK's position in the EU and win the referendum so resoundingly he could then say to Cash and Jenkin, "sorry guys, it's over."
He realised this had failed months before the vote, because even a close Remain result wouldn't have settled it. What would have is seriously delivering on Bloomberg.
Does Shipman say anything about Michael Gove and his relationship with Osborne? Osborne said something about not fumbling the next leadership election but, of course, he never stood last time, so was Gove his puppet? Did Osborne mastermind Gove's defenestration of Boris?
I'm not so sure. Labour's mostly been out of the news over the last month or so, whilst the government's few problems have been front-page news. There will be some Labour supporters drifting back because Labour's internal problems have quietened down.
That's not a situation I expect to last, though.
Maybe it's because Corbyn's not been on the TV for the last month. Miliband only got 30.6% at the GE.
1. Is A50 reversible? This would have to be referred to the ECJ.
It's essential for our national interest that we secure confirmation that it is indeed reversible. That's something all Leavers who care about the country should agree with.
Bedfordshire Police has had a massive custard pie in the face this morning with its new Islamphobia campaign.
The logo they used apparently included the one-finger raised gesture ISIS use. Lots of pix of this gesture were sent to them and now they've deleted the whole thing.
Apart from the PC idiocy of thought policing about a religion - one would expect them to spot such a gesture on such a touchy subject.
I think that the potential for terrorist activity in parts of Luton is a rather higher priority than this.
So I agree with Mr Dijsselbloem, “There is no win-win situation [for Brexit]. It’s going to be a lose-lose situation...and in the best case if we set aside all emotions and try to reach an agreement that is least damaging.” The UK Government obviously won't accept the premise that it's a choice between less damaging or more damaging, because that raises the question of why are we Brexiting to be worse off in immediate practical terms.
Back in the day David Cameron achieved a 28 point lead over Labour with Ipsos Mori, Mrs May has a 9% lead over a Corbyn led Labour Party.
Pull tha' bloody finger out woman.
And Cameron's majority after the 2010 election was what? How the hell did he blow that kind of lead and not get a majority?
The credit crunch and Dave took the long term view by deferring a majority in 2010 he could by 2015 wipe out the Lib Dems and drive Labour so mad they'd elect Corbyn as leader.
I'm not so sure. Labour's mostly been out of the news over the last month or so, whilst the government's few problems have been front-page news. There will be some Labour supporters drifting back because Labour's internal problems have quietened down.
That's not a situation I expect to last, though.
Maybe it's because Corbyn's not been on the TV for the last month. Miliband only got 30.6% at the GE.
From memory, Labour was polling well above that for most of the previous five years. General Elections seem to concentrate the minds of the electorate, as Cameron and the Conservatives found in 2010.
This poll adds to my feeling that a 2020 GE is very risky for May and the Conservatives. There are the risks of the economy turning, a Brexit deal either not being concluded or being poorly received, and of Labour getting its act together, either with or without Corbyn. Then there are all the other events that could strike between now and then.
Edit: but the alternative of an early GE is also fraught with risk.
The UK Government obviously won't accept the premise that it's a choice between less damaging or more damaging, because that raises the question of why are we Brexiting to be worse off in immediate practical terms.
That's why the ostensibly sensible Leavers are so touchy.
In their heart they want to start. In their guts they know it's nuts.
Donald J Trump I am not trying to get "top level security clearance" for my children. This was a typically false news story.
CNN just appears to be one big smear campaign to me, they've forgotten that they're supposed to report the bloody news, not try and make it.
Their analysis on the night was something else though. Phenominally good, also the New York Times Website was excellent.
After Wolf's obvious WTF ten minutes - he manned up and carried on. The analyst was superb. The whole MSM seem to have lost their minds. Even their mea culpas fail to address the basic issues - with the laudable exception of a single chap at CBS.
It's a week since the result and they're making Brexit butt-hurt look mild in comparison.
Incidentally, Lady Hale's comment about triggering Article 50 requiring years of legislation is dubious. Nobody even hinted at that pre-vote or after the result, until now.
Incidentally, Lady Hale's comment about triggering Article 50 requiring years of legislation is dubious. Nobody even hinted at that pre-vote or after the result, until now.
@cgwOMT: Have said this repeatedly- unpicking relationship with EU will take 10 years & that's assuming Repeal Bill passes w/o significant amendment twitter.com/bbclaurak/stat…
The UK Government obviously won't accept the premise that it's a choice between less damaging or more damaging, because that raises the question of why are we Brexiting to be worse off in immediate practical terms.
That's why the ostensibly sensible Leavers are so touchy.
In their heart they want to start. In their guts they know it's nuts.
Comments
I doubt Liam Fox is correct about the EU being liable for compensation to Korea in the case where Britain leaves. I would want to see the clause in the several hundred page long FTA document before believing him. Korea and the EU are renegotiating their FTA. It may be the case that Korea is demanding better terms from the EU because the UK is no longer included. If so, the EU may agree those terms or stick to the current agreement.
The 1500 pages of the EU FTA with Canada are overwhelming devoted to quotas and exclusions. There is a limit on the number of Christmas trees Canada can export to the EU, for example. The UK would originally have taken a large portion of the Christmas trees and other quota items. The quota will now apply just to the rest of the EU. If Britain joins CETA would it have its own quota or share the EU one, as intended when it was set? There is a raft of these kind of issues to sort out, which is why FTAs take the best part of a decade to sort out. In this case there could be sequencing where Canada waits for the UK to settle its arrangement with the EU. If so, we're potentially waiting more than a decade. I don't see a problem with a Brexited Britain having a CETA type deal with Canada. That's one of the easier ones and maybe it will be done on a relatively accelerated timetable.
You should read Tim Shipman's book 'All Out War'. It becomes pretty clear that Cameron's objective, with Hague's encouragement, was to reset the UK's position in the EU and win the referendum so resoundingly he could then say to Cash and Jenkin, "sorry guys, it's over."
He realised this had failed months before the vote, because even a close Remain result wouldn't have settled it. What would have is seriously delivering on Bloomberg.
Edit: Rats, beaten to it by Mr Divvie.
The guy is such a hypocrite, truly a post-truth President.
There were so many reasons why 2016 was never going to be 1975. You'd think someone whose strongest point was "allegedly" PR would have known this.
He may be wrong about that too, of course. Not wrong about Brexit being a mess, that's pretty much nailed on. Wrong about the Conservative Party turning to him in desperation.
One of his campaign posters:
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/798843927948185600
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/798845354007371777
TIA.
Before UK parties & politicians criticise Trump, they need to take a GOOD long look in the mirror.
http://metro.co.uk/2016/11/13/oh-jesus-christ-its-five-years-since-fenton-visited-richmond-park-6181149/
https://twitter.com/ParlyApp/status/798828473368227840
(About 8 million fewer voters voted for Clinton in 2016 than for Obama in 2008)
And, as Trump himself noted, if the election was about the popular vote then far more campaign time (for both candidates) would have been spent in the major conurbations. The flyover states would have kept their monikcer. Whether Trump would have won or not is open to question. However I would expect a significantly increased turnout when every vote counts.
Conservatives 42%
Labour 33%
Lib Dem 10
Ukip 7%
See @eveningstandard tonight
Awful for Labour if London, middling to ok for them if national (Compared to recent)
"Vice President-elect Mike Pence reportedly ordered the removal of all lobbyists from president-elect Donald Trump's transition team, The Wall Street Journal wrote on Tuesday night.
The decision was one of Pence's first since formally taking over the team's lead role. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was abruptly dismissed from the post last week.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/798848693881319424
Daily drip, drip, drip of stories to make it seem like the country is in a crisis. Delay, delay, delay Brexit by all means necessary... Hope for an economic crash in the next few months.
Then we all fall at the feet of Osborne who becomes PM and keeps us in the EU (probably with added "benefits" of joining the Euro, the single European army etc.)
Incidentally, how's Goldsmith doing?
I thought they were the ones that asked favours of government !
Sounds like a positive move on the surface.
So IMO it's pretty much impossible now.
Pull tha' bloody finger out woman.
Latest @IpsosMORI poll Con 42 (-5) Lab 33 (+4) LD 10 (+3) UKIP 7 (+1).
That's not a situation I expect to last, though.
He'd do well to remember the reception he received at the Olympics in 2012 from a not so adoring public.
1. Is A50 reversible? This would have to be referred to the ECJ.
2. The Great Repeal Bill might have to be passed prior to A50 as the rights being lost under the treaties would have to be addressed with specific legislation. Perhaps they cannot simply disappear as envisioned in a simple one clause bill to invoke A50.
The delay and complexity that either of these matters might create could lead to a 'why are we bothering?' question from some soft leavers. Mrs May personally seems to have become a hardline leaver.
The logo they used apparently included the one-finger raised gesture ISIS use. Lots of pix of this gesture were sent to them and now they've deleted the whole thing.
Apart from the PC idiocy of thought policing about a religion - one would expect them to spot such a gesture on such a touchy subject.
A model we should not disregard.
Locals next year important too for another data point in this model here:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/05/27/guest-slot-rod-crosby-the-bell-tolls-for-labour-and-miliband/
Donald J Trump
I am not trying to get "top level security clearance" for my children. This was a typically false news story.
Their analysis on the night was something else though. Phenominally good, also the New York Times Website was excellent.
This poll adds to my feeling that a 2020 GE is very risky for May and the Conservatives. There are the risks of the economy turning, a Brexit deal either not being concluded or being poorly received, and of Labour getting its act together, either with or without Corbyn. Then there are all the other events that could strike between now and then.
Edit: but the alternative of an early GE is also fraught with risk.
In their heart they want to start.
In their guts they know it's nuts.
It's a week since the result and they're making Brexit butt-hurt look mild in comparison.
Paul Joseph Watson
Now we know the left's love for democracy was all a ruse. https://t.co/fQUOqy5jy1