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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Why Trump won and what’ll he d

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    edited November 2016
    Mr. P, nobody in politics or the media raised it before the referendum, and nobody raised it afterwards until now.

    It may be a chap on Twitter did so, but people on Twitter say a lot of things.

    Edited extra bit: NB I'm speaking specifically of triggering Article 50.
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    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    And more fake news.

    Donald J Trump
    I am not trying to get "top level security clearance" for my children. This was a typically false news story.

    CNN just appears to be one big smear campaign to me, they've forgotten that they're supposed to report the bloody news, not try and make it.

    Their analysis on the night was something else though. Phenominally good, also the New York Times Website was excellent.
    CNN credited CBS who quoted "sources" as saying The Trump team has asked the White House to explore the possibility of getting his children the top secret security clearances which is all vague enough to be false or true but with plausible deniability. In unrelated news, CBS interviewed the Trump children.
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    Scott_P said:

    Incidentally, Lady Hale's comment about triggering Article 50 requiring years of legislation is dubious. Nobody even hinted at that pre-vote or after the result, until now.

    @cgwOMT: Have said this repeatedly- unpicking relationship with EU will take 10 years & that's assuming Repeal Bill passes w/o significant amendment twitter.com/bbclaurak/stat…
    Leaving might take years, triggering article 50 though?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Scott_P said:

    Incidentally, Lady Hale's comment about triggering Article 50 requiring years of legislation is dubious. Nobody even hinted at that pre-vote or after the result, until now.

    @cgwOMT: Have said this repeatedly- unpicking relationship with EU will take 10 years & that's assuming Repeal Bill passes w/o significant amendment twitter.com/bbclaurak/stat…
    If it takes ten years then something must be fundamentally borken with the process.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-transition-team-lobbyists-2016-11

    "Vice President-elect Mike Pence reportedly ordered the removal of all lobbyists from president-elect Donald Trump's transition team, The Wall Street Journal wrote on Tuesday night.

    The decision was one of Pence's first since formally taking over the team's lead role. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was abruptly dismissed from the post last week.

    A shrewd move by Pence in these fibril times, especially with a hostile media attempting to set the news agenda, rather than just report it.
    I gather Christie had given the nod to several dozen lobby types, stupidity on a stick IMO.

    Pence was dead right to bin them.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited November 2016

    Incidentally, Lady Hale's comment about triggering Article 50 requiring years of legislation is dubious. Nobody even hinted at that pre-vote or after the result, until now.

    No surprise they didn't bring it up before, they didn't think any of it through.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Scott_P said:

    Incidentally, Lady Hale's comment about triggering Article 50 requiring years of legislation is dubious. Nobody even hinted at that pre-vote or after the result, until now.

    @cgwOMT: Have said this repeatedly- unpicking relationship with EU will take 10 years & that's assuming Repeal Bill passes w/o significant amendment twitter.com/bbclaurak/stat…
    If it takes ten years then something must be fundamentally borken with the process.
    Its unpicking the relationship with the EU in a way that doesn't do huge amounts of hard in the process. Leaving would be easy if we were prepared to take the damage.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,779
    edited November 2016

    FF43 said:

    The UK Government obviously won't accept the premise that it's a choice between less damaging or more damaging, because that raises the question of why are we Brexiting to be worse off in immediate practical terms.

    That's why the ostensibly sensible Leavers are so touchy.

    In their heart they want to start.
    In their guts they know it's nuts.
    In the head rather than the heart, I think. It's hard to get excited about damage limitation and choosing the least worst option, particularly when you were arguing against getting yourself into this situation in the first place.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    PlatoSaid said:


    After Wolf's obvious WTF ten minutes - he manned up and carried on. The analyst was superb.

    Alternativly you could have watched on David "Will the Democrats win California" Dimbleby BBC if you fancy losing your shirt !
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    Scott_P said:

    Incidentally, Lady Hale's comment about triggering Article 50 requiring years of legislation is dubious. Nobody even hinted at that pre-vote or after the result, until now.

    @cgwOMT: Have said this repeatedly- unpicking relationship with EU will take 10 years & that's assuming Repeal Bill passes w/o significant amendment twitter.com/bbclaurak/stat…
    There is a difference between triggering Article 50 and subsequently revising the EU legislation which we will initially adopt.
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    Mr. 43, unless you believed leaving the EU would entail short term pain for long term gain.

    The idea all Leave voters thought we'd sail away on a golden sea of boundless prosperity is not true. I compared it, pre-vote, to having a dislocated shoulder put back in. Bloody hurts, but is better than the alternative.
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    NEW THREAD

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited November 2016

    Mr. P, nobody in politics or the media raised it before the referendum, and nobody raised it afterwards until now.

    It may be a chap on Twitter did so, but people on Twitter say a lot of things.

    Edited extra bit: NB I'm speaking specifically of triggering Article 50.

    David Cameron said he'd do it on 24th June, thus suggesting it was as simple as handing in a letter to Brussels.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Source just told me there might be 2,000 Statutory Instruments that need to be voted thro as part of the Great Repeal Bill - blimey

    There are already about three and a half thousand statutory instruments passed each year:
    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/l07.pdf

    Blimey indeed.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    I only just saw McDonnells remarks coming onboard with Brexit saying it's a huge opportunity. Quite significant, it shows labour won't oppose or frustrate the process, not in big numbers, so why are the Tories dragging their kitten heels?

    Big opportunity for the Lib Dems as Labour vacate anti brexit ground. Their trick to look credible is to argue explicitly for an EEA model with full FoM rather than all this second vote crap. Seems more feasible/realistic. Embrace the difference with the other two, Iraq War style
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    There is a difference between triggering Article 50 and subsequently revising the EU legislation which we will initially adopt.

    That was the point Lady Hale brought up. It may be illegal to trigger Article 50 until we have repealed other laws. Which might take 10 years.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    Scott_P said:

    There is a difference between triggering Article 50 and subsequently revising the EU legislation which we will initially adopt.

    That was the point Lady Hale brought up. It may be illegal to trigger Article 50 until we have repealed other laws. Which might take 10 years.
    In her opinion. I expect it to be a minority one, FWIW.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Bedfordshire Police has had a massive custard pie in the face this morning with its new Islamphobia campaign.

    The logo they used apparently included the one-finger raised gesture ISIS use. Lots of pix of this gesture were sent to them and now they've deleted the whole thing.

    Apart from the PC idiocy of thought policing about a religion - one would expect them to spot such a gesture on such a touchy subject.


    Pictures please.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,779

    Incidentally, Lady Hale's comment about triggering Article 50 requiring years of legislation is dubious. Nobody even hinted at that pre-vote or after the result, until now.

    I think she is flying a flag - hypothesis to test. She didn't sound confident about it. The law wouldn't have been tested if the Government had put Article 50 in front of Parliament in the first place. Which would have been the right thing for them to have done, as well as being in their interests.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Incidentally, Lady Hale's comment about triggering Article 50 requiring years of legislation is dubious. Nobody even hinted at that pre-vote or after the result, until now.

    @cgwOMT: Have said this repeatedly- unpicking relationship with EU will take 10 years & that's assuming Repeal Bill passes w/o significant amendment twitter.com/bbclaurak/stat…
    If it takes ten years then something must be fundamentally borken with the process.
    Its unpicking the relationship with the EU in a way that doesn't do huge amounts of hard in the process. Leaving would be easy if we were prepared to take the damage.
    If it takes ten years to unpick, then that's ten years of uncertainty and damage to the economy. I can't believe it would ten years; and if it's right, it's just another piece of evidence supporting Quick Exit.

    Otherwise the long-term uncertainty will kill inwards investment. Let investors know where they stand, and let's make the UK as attractive as possible to them. We may lose some advantages from whatever deal we get or don't get; we need to offset these using the extra powers that leaving the EU has given us (according to leavers).
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:


    After Wolf's obvious WTF ten minutes - he manned up and carried on. The analyst was superb.

    Alternativly you could have watched on David "Will the Democrats win California" Dimbleby BBC if you fancy losing your shirt !
    I managed about 5mins of BBC coverage - Vine dancing about, and just the whole tone made me turn over to CNN. At least I can filter out their bias and know they know what's going on. I'd have preferred to watch Andrew Neil - but the rest of it was too stupid to endure.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,779
    edited November 2016

    Mr. 43, unless you believed leaving the EU would entail short term pain for long term gain.

    The idea all Leave voters thought we'd sail away on a golden sea of boundless prosperity is not true. I compared it, pre-vote, to having a dislocated shoulder put back in. Bloody hurts, but is better than the alternative.

    Perfectly legitimate argument to make. Is the Government making it and do people accept it?

    Extra bit and more importantly: Are they addressing negotiations in a realistic way so the "dislocation" is as mild as it can be? Answer: No.
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    Everyone's talking about liberalism but few are voting Lib Dem.

    Discuss. Do not write on both sides of the paper at the same time.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I only just saw McDonnells remarks coming onboard with Brexit saying it's a huge opportunity. Quite significant, it shows labour won't oppose or frustrate the process, not in big numbers, so why are the Tories dragging their kitten heels?

    https://twitter.com/patrickseurre/status/798848282331992064
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    Looks like he's a few chunks short of a full bar:

    https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/798858220227817472
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    Sandpit said:

    Mr. P, nobody in politics or the media raised it before the referendum, and nobody raised it afterwards until now.

    It may be a chap on Twitter did so, but people on Twitter say a lot of things.

    Edited extra bit: NB I'm speaking specifically of triggering Article 50.

    David Cameron said he'd do it on 24th June, thus suggesting it was as simple as handing in a letter to Brussels.
    Cameron gives the distinct impression of being a lying chancer who got caught out.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: POLL Ipsos MORI
    Conservatives 42%
    Labour 33%
    Lib Dem 10
    Ukip 7%
    See @eveningstandard tonight

    That 33% seems awfully optimistic!
    I'm not so sure. Labour's mostly been out of the news over the last month or so, whilst the government's few problems have been front-page news. There will be some Labour supporters drifting back because Labour's internal problems have quietened down.

    That's not a situation I expect to last, though.
    Maybe it's because Corbyn's not been on the TV for the last month. Miliband only got 30.6% at the GE.
    Milliband got 31.2% in GB.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    A friend has dinner last night with a former NY Governor who knows Trump well. Talked about the wall.

    Said that Trump has no intention of building it. He dealt with him many times in NY - standard MO was to open with an outrageous ask to rock you back on your heels & frame the discussion.

    The wall is just that - he wants Mexico to respond with a proposal.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,904
    Charles said:

    A friend has dinner last night with a former NY Governor who knows Trump well. Talked about the wall.

    Said that Trump has no intention of building it. He dealt with him many times in NY - standard MO was to open with an outrageous ask to rock you back on your heels & frame the discussion.

    The wall is just that - he wants Mexico to respond with a proposal.

    So he's an arsehole, not a fascist.
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