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  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597

    First post in ages for an update on the French presidential race:

    For the first time a poll gives Fillon (+9) and Sarkozy (-1) tied at 25% on the Republicains primary's first round, with Juppé at 33% (-7).

    Fillon would beat either Sarkozy (63/37) or Juppé (54/46) on the second round. Juppé would beat Sarkozy easily (57/43)

    Link for those who read French:
    http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/sondage-exclusif-francois-fillon-rattrape-nicolas-sarkozy-pour-1er-tour-primaire-et-battrait-largement-alain-juppe-au-second-2880518.html

    This comes after several primary polls showing the same story in the last week or so: Fillon up, Juppé down, Sarkozy flat. Basically Fillon is going up by squeezing the other moderates (Le Maire and Juppé) while Sarkozy has a very stable support around 25%. All polls show Sarkozy losing the second round, often by big margins.

    Previous polls still show a sizable gap between Sarkozy and Fillon but the media narrative and momentum seem to be clearly in Fillon's direction.

    This race will be tight and I think that the current odds do not appropriately reflect it.
    IMHO the Juppé price is too tight and it makes no sense to have Sarkozy (who has no realistic chance to win this primary) at the same price as Fillon that has a good chance to win the second round if he qualifies.

    Laying both Sarkozy and Hollande still seems a safe strategy.

    What are the polls for a potential final of Le Pen v each of the above?

    Presumably Fillon would beat Le Pen by the biggest margin?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I must confess to some confusion here. What are the Commission's grounds for belief that we will give them anything? I can see the sense in a quid pro quo - we give x billion, they give us certain accesses, and so on - but the idea we would maintain contributions for things we get no benefit from is surely risible?
    Bet you we do, though.
    Only if we get things we really want in return such as the Single Passport. Otherwise cheerio.
    Who is responsible for e.g. the pensions of soon-to-be-redundant British EU functionaries?
    The EU, I would have thought.
    The EU is a is a cooperative, with common assets and common liabilities. We are owed a share of the assets, but - just as Scotland would be responsible for a share of the debt of HMG on independence - we owe a share of the liabilities too.

    Our 14% share of assets is worth close to €30bn. Realistically, our share of future pension liabilities and the like is probably €20bn in today's money, or €40bn in cumulative payments over the next 60 years.

    Comparing a number in today's money, with one that will be paid in half a century's time is ridiculous.
    So we're owed 10bn Euros net? Isn't that 33 new hospitals? :D
    Around 15% of the EU's assets are in Greek government bonds, which if a further complication...
    Think we might give them that bit. Really just wiping all the respective claims against each other makes much more sense. The difference really is not worth the aggravation it would cause on both sides of the channel.
  • Globalisation, automation, the coming of the robots. All euphemisms or partial explanations for one trend - the impact of the Internet, which has been ramping up for decades. As the world becomes more closely interconnected, and behaves as one 'entity', the result is a reduction in barriers of entry to, well, just about everything. In every area of human activity, the Internet delivers a technological 'Pangaea' - a reduction in diversity with a declining number of niches for us to hide out in and exploit.

    The result is a not-so-slow-motion mass-extinction event involving everything from actual species to culture, languages, ideas and activities. For the few winners, they will win big, and win everything. For the large number of losers, they'll be left with nothing.

    This might not be too bad if politicians hadn't abandoned the idea of 'progress' - the revolutionary concept that somehow politics was there to improve the lot of everyone and use technology as a tool for improving quality of life. Instead politics has outsourced the results of technological innovation almost exclusively to corporations who operate only to improve efficiency - but the endgame of efficiency is a lot of people surplus to requirements. Robert Malthus would have nodded grimly at this, but I'm not sure large swathes of the global population are ready to sit quietly and be consigned to the scrapheap, as evidenced by Brexit and Trump.

    What we really need is a neo-Marxist revolution, and a global society which uses politics to deploy technology to fix the planet and get us into space. We won't get it though; even *I* think writing this makes me sound like a nutjob. We're all doomed, aren't we?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    First post in ages for an update on the French presidential race:

    For the first time a poll gives Fillon (+9) and Sarkozy (-1) tied at 25% on the Republicains primary's first round, with Juppé at 33% (-7).

    Fillon would beat either Sarkozy (63/37) or Juppé (54/46) on the second round. Juppé would beat Sarkozy easily (57/43)

    Link for those who read French:
    http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/sondage-exclusif-francois-fillon-rattrape-nicolas-sarkozy-pour-1er-tour-primaire-et-battrait-largement-alain-juppe-au-second-2880518.html

    This comes after several primary polls showing the same story in the last week or so: Fillon up, Juppé down, Sarkozy flat. Basically Fillon is going up by squeezing the other moderates (Le Maire and Juppé) while Sarkozy has a very stable support around 25%. All polls show Sarkozy losing the second round, often by big margins.

    Previous polls still show a sizable gap between Sarkozy and Fillon but the media narrative and momentum seem to be clearly in Fillon's direction.

    This race will be tight and I think that the current odds do not appropriately reflect it.
    IMHO the Juppé price is too tight and it makes no sense to have Sarkozy (who has no realistic chance to win this primary) at the same price as Fillon that has a good chance to win the second round if he qualifies.

    Laying both Sarkozy and Hollande still seems a safe strategy.

    My question is what are the dynamics of a Fillon-Le Pen race.
    70:30 to Fillon
    Maybe not 70/30 but at least 60/40.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I must confess to some confusion here. What are the Commission's grounds for belief that we will give them anything? I can see the sense in a quid pro quo - we give x billion, they give us certain accesses, and so on - but the idea we would maintain contributions for things we get no benefit from is surely risible?
    Bet you we do, though.
    Only if we get things we really want in return such as the Single Passport. Otherwise cheerio.
    Who is responsible for e.g. the pensions of soon-to-be-redundant British EU functionaries?
    The EU, I would have thought.
    The EU is a is a cooperative, with common assets and common liabilities. We are owed a share of the assets, but - just as Scotland would be responsible for a share of the debt of HMG on independence - we owe a share of the liabilities too.

    Our 14% share of assets is worth close to €30bn. Realistically, our share of future pension liabilities and the like is probably €20bn in today's money, or €40bn in cumulative payments over the next 60 years.

    Comparing a number in today's money, with one that will be paid in half a century's time is ridiculous.
    So we're owed 10bn Euros net? Isn't that 33 new hospitals? :D
    Around 15% of the EU's assets are in Greek government bonds, which if a further complication...
    I always thought the assets of the EU where hot air and toilet paper.
    That's what rcs1000 said :p
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:

    Scott_P said:
    I must confess to some confusion here. What are the Commission's grounds for belief that we will give them anything? I can see the sense in a quid pro quo - we give x billion, they give us certain accesses, and so on - but the idea we would maintain contributions for things we get no benefit from is surely risible?
    Bet you we do, though.
    Only if we get things we really want in return such as the Single Passport. Otherwise cheerio.
    Who is responsible for e.g. the pensions of soon-to-be-redundant British EU functionaries?
    The EU, I would have thought.
    The EU is a is a cooperative, with common assets and common liabilities. We are owed a share of the assets, but - just as Scotland would be responsible for a share of the debt of HMG on independence - we owe a share of the liabilities too.

    Our 14% share of assets is worth close to €30bn. Realistically, our share of future pension liabilities and the like is probably €20bn in today's money, or €40bn in cumulative payments over the next 60 years.

    Comparing a number in today's money, with one that will be paid in half a century's time is ridiculous.
    So we're owed 10bn Euros net? Isn't that 33 new hospitals? :D
    Around 15% of the EU's assets are in Greek government bonds, which if a further complication...
    I vote we don't include any greek bonds in our 14% share :)
    I'll be joining you on this one...
  • MikeL said:

    First post in ages for an update on the French presidential race:

    For the first time a poll gives Fillon (+9) and Sarkozy (-1) tied at 25% on the Republicains primary's first round, with Juppé at 33% (-7).

    Fillon would beat either Sarkozy (63/37) or Juppé (54/46) on the second round. Juppé would beat Sarkozy easily (57/43)

    Link for those who read French:
    http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/sondage-exclusif-francois-fillon-rattrape-nicolas-sarkozy-pour-1er-tour-primaire-et-battrait-largement-alain-juppe-au-second-2880518.html

    This comes after several primary polls showing the same story in the last week or so: Fillon up, Juppé down, Sarkozy flat. Basically Fillon is going up by squeezing the other moderates (Le Maire and Juppé) while Sarkozy has a very stable support around 25%. All polls show Sarkozy losing the second round, often by big margins.

    Previous polls still show a sizable gap between Sarkozy and Fillon but the media narrative and momentum seem to be clearly in Fillon's direction.

    This race will be tight and I think that the current odds do not appropriately reflect it.
    IMHO the Juppé price is too tight and it makes no sense to have Sarkozy (who has no realistic chance to win this primary) at the same price as Fillon that has a good chance to win the second round if he qualifies.

    Laying both Sarkozy and Hollande still seems a safe strategy.

    What are the polls for a potential final of Le Pen v each of the above?

    Presumably Fillon would beat Le Pen by the biggest margin?
    Last polls in September (!) said 66/33 to Juppé and 61/39 to Fillon.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    First post in ages for an update on the French presidential race:

    For the first time a poll gives Fillon (+9) and Sarkozy (-1) tied at 25% on the Republicains primary's first round, with Juppé at 33% (-7).

    Fillon would beat either Sarkozy (63/37) or Juppé (54/46) on the second round. Juppé would beat Sarkozy easily (57/43)

    Link for those who read French:
    http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/sondage-exclusif-francois-fillon-rattrape-nicolas-sarkozy-pour-1er-tour-primaire-et-battrait-largement-alain-juppe-au-second-2880518.html

    This comes after several primary polls showing the same story in the last week or so: Fillon up, Juppé down, Sarkozy flat. Basically Fillon is going up by squeezing the other moderates (Le Maire and Juppé) while Sarkozy has a very stable support around 25%. All polls show Sarkozy losing the second round, often by big margins.

    Previous polls still show a sizable gap between Sarkozy and Fillon but the media narrative and momentum seem to be clearly in Fillon's direction.

    This race will be tight and I think that the current odds do not appropriately reflect it.
    IMHO the Juppé price is too tight and it makes no sense to have Sarkozy (who has no realistic chance to win this primary) at the same price as Fillon that has a good chance to win the second round if he qualifies.

    Laying both Sarkozy and Hollande still seems a safe strategy.

    My question is what are the dynamics of a Fillon-Le Pen race.
    70:30 to Fillon
    There haven't been many 2nd round polls lately, the last ones are from the spring:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdote alert...

    My fish and chip shop has a sign saying its prices are up 7% due to Brexit.

    British fish, British potatoes and British vegetable oil. Looks to me like profiteering either by the chip shop or by one of their suppliers.
    Their fish market in Euros apparently, Oil a commodity priced in Dollars. According to the sign.

    They are taking the piss, Mr. Jonathan. Go elsewhere.
    Fish are a global commodity, so it's not entirely unsurprising. If you catch some haddock, and the price is £1 or €1.25, you used to prefer to sell it to the Brit, and not you prefer to sell it to the European.
    Have fish exports risen ?
    We're a net importer of fish.
    Surely coming out of the CFP will reverse at least that part of the deficit.
  • Jonathan said:

    Educated people do face serious danger from robots, but it isn't that they're going to take our jobs, it's that they're going to kill us all.

    How?
    Hire an assassin.
  • Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    First post in ages for an update on the French presidential race:

    For the first time a poll gives Fillon (+9) and Sarkozy (-1) tied at 25% on the Republicains primary's first round, with Juppé at 33% (-7).

    Fillon would beat either Sarkozy (63/37) or Juppé (54/46) on the second round. Juppé would beat Sarkozy easily (57/43)

    Link for those who read French:
    http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/sondage-exclusif-francois-fillon-rattrape-nicolas-sarkozy-pour-1er-tour-primaire-et-battrait-largement-alain-juppe-au-second-2880518.html

    This comes after several primary polls showing the same story in the last week or so: Fillon up, Juppé down, Sarkozy flat. Basically Fillon is going up by squeezing the other moderates (Le Maire and Juppé) while Sarkozy has a very stable support around 25%. All polls show Sarkozy losing the second round, often by big margins.

    Previous polls still show a sizable gap between Sarkozy and Fillon but the media narrative and momentum seem to be clearly in Fillon's direction.

    This race will be tight and I think that the current odds do not appropriately reflect it.
    IMHO the Juppé price is too tight and it makes no sense to have Sarkozy (who has no realistic chance to win this primary) at the same price as Fillon that has a good chance to win the second round if he qualifies.

    Laying both Sarkozy and Hollande still seems a safe strategy.

    My question is what are the dynamics of a Fillon-Le Pen race.
    70:30 to Fillon
    There haven't been many 2nd round polls lately, the last ones are from the spring:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
    Check the French version :)

    https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_de_sondages_sur_l'élection_présidentielle_française_de_2017
  • First post in ages for an update on the French presidential race:

    For the first time a poll gives Fillon (+9) and Sarkozy (-1) tied at 25% on the Republicains primary's first round, with Juppé at 33% (-7).

    Fillon would beat either Sarkozy (63/37) or Juppé (54/46) on the second round. Juppé would beat Sarkozy easily (57/43)

    Link for those who read French:
    http://www.atlantico.fr/decryptage/sondage-exclusif-francois-fillon-rattrape-nicolas-sarkozy-pour-1er-tour-primaire-et-battrait-largement-alain-juppe-au-second-2880518.html

    Thank you for that. I had not properly considered Fillon in my betting, regrettably. 6.6 on Betfair makes no appeal to me but the 10/1 at Ladbrokes and Hills may be of interest to other PBers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725

    TOPPING said:

    The pound shop Gordon Brown strikes again.

    The Times say Deloitte only issued their statement after pressure from the government amid fears the firm would be stripped of future contracts

    LOL it was Deloittes? The govt made it sound as though the "pitch" was from a firm whose offices were above Chicken Cottage on Leyton High Street.
    I'll have you know that there is nothing wrong with Chicken Cottage on Leyton High Street.
    With local knowledge you would know that it is Leyton High Road.
  • It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016

    Random question: if the Dow Jones keeps rising, whilst the FTSE has been flat in 20 years, is that due to the return of capital to shareholders or something else?

    In part that is it. FTSE companies pay more dividends, while US companies just build up assets and share price. Total return is a bit more even, though you also have to allow that the US indices are more oriented to tech.
  • Oh my.

    Ed Ball will be dancing the Jive to 'Great Balls of Fire’ by Jerry Lee Lewis in this weekend's Strictly.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,652

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anecdote alert...

    My fish and chip shop has a sign saying its prices are up 7% due to Brexit.

    British fish, British potatoes and British vegetable oil. Looks to me like profiteering either by the chip shop or by one of their suppliers.
    Their fish market in Euros apparently, Oil a commodity priced in Dollars. According to the sign.

    They are taking the piss, Mr. Jonathan. Go elsewhere.
    Fish are a global commodity, so it's not entirely unsurprising. If you catch some haddock, and the price is £1 or €1.25, you used to prefer to sell it to the Brit, and not you prefer to sell it to the European.
    Have fish exports risen ?
    We're a net importer of fish.
    We may be a net importer, but we still export a huge amount of top quality seafood - to France and Spain in particular.
    Part of leaving will be to redesignate British as opposed to European coastal waters. Lots of fish caught in what used to be British waters go to Spain for example, but I don't think they are considered British exports. That will change; it's a pity the British fishing industry has been decimated in the meantime.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    Oh my.

    Ed Ball will be dancing the Jive to 'Great Balls of Fire’ by Jerry Lee Lewis in this weekend's Strictly.

    LOL!
  • It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.


    Good Re-Moaning!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    The pound shop Gordon Brown strikes again.

    The Times say Deloitte only issued their statement after pressure from the government amid fears the firm would be stripped of future contracts

    LOL it was Deloittes? The govt made it sound as though the "pitch" was from a firm whose offices were above Chicken Cottage on Leyton High Street.
    I'll have you know that there is nothing wrong with Chicken Cottage on Leyton High Street.
    With local knowledge you would know that it is Leyton High Road.
    I thought that was pedantry :) I lived two houses away from me, then two streets away from it. Back in the day my grandmothers' family grew up on it and my great grandfather was councillor for it.

    Personally I only went to KFC though! The dodgy rip offs south of the station were not appealling...
  • RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    On topic, people currently working as lawyers will adapt to new jobs.

    The people struggling with competition from robots (or immigrants) are people who can't or don't want to change. These people are strongly represented in rural areas, because if they weren't resistant to change they'd already have moved to bigger towns where there are more opportunities.

    Not necessarily. Perhaps they just don't want to vacate half-decent housing and a nice environment to go and live in a rabbit hutch on a grotty estate?

    Most large urban areas consist largely of areas that are anything from tolerable to downright unpleasant to live in, especially once you rule out those parts where half a million pounds might buy you a run down two bed end-of-terrace in need of a bit of TLC. I exaggerate, perhaps, but only slightly. Especially when it comes to London.

    There's precious little point going to somewhere like London to get a slightly better job if all of the extra money goes on the rent, and you're faced with spending the rest of your life in a poky and vastly overpriced little hovel surrounded by miles and miles of urban sprawl, jammed-up roads and mucky air in every direction.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Oh my.

    Ed Ball will be dancing the Jive to 'Great Balls of Fire’ by Jerry Lee Lewis in this weekend's Strictly.

    The man is clearly running for President.

    But Britain doesn't have one.
  • RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    I wrote a thread header for Mike which is now completely out of date, but I'll volunteer some more :)

    Save us from your insistence that voting across two rounds was "basically AV".
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    Maybe
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    No 2 AV 68%
    Yes 2 AV 32%
    :innocent:
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    the French 2 round system is excellent, even better than AV as it has a cooling off period built in.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732


    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    No 2 AV 68%
    Yes 2 AV 32%
    :innocent:
    Yeah, but what would it have got if it were held under AV?!
  • RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    I wrote a thread header for Mike which is now completely out of date, but I'll volunteer some more :)

    Save us from your insistence that voting across two rounds was "basically AV".
    Yay for more threads from you.

    Stop ruining my threads before I've even published them. The French system is AV with knobs on.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    Maybe
    Hollande's title is le président de la République française (PDLRF) which would be just POTFR in translation.
  • To elaborate a bit more on Le Pen vs Fillon.

    There is a clear difference between Juppé, Sarkozy and Fillon as an opponent for Marine Le Pen:

    - Juppe would receive much more left-wing backing but creates strong resistance on the right with his "happy identity" message seen as too accomodative towards radical Islam.
    - Sarkozy would not get a lot of left-wing voters. His tough language on security and immigration could attract some Le Pen supporters but they tend to focus on the numerous ongoing judicial cases against him.
    - Fillon is not hated by the left but would probably not court its voters aggressively. His last book ("Defeating islamic totalitarism") has been well received on the right but his very middle class/establishment look might not play well in the French Rust Belt.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207

    I have never walked out of any negotiation. Sounds like I have been missing a trick!!

    It is last resort, but it should certainly be in your armoury. The look of "Oh shit..." on the other side as you shuffle your papers together and put them in your briefcase is the only joy to be taken from reaching such an impasse...
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    Maybe
    Hollande's title is le président de la République française (PDLRF) which would be just POTFR in translation.
    I was right, my French really is very good. I might write entire threads in French on those elections
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    the French 2 round system is excellent, even better than AV as it has a cooling off period built in.
    Nothing can beat FPTP - truly the most awesome and brilliant voting system known to man.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    I wonder how long before Germany looks back at Merkel and thinks "She was a bit shit, really, wasn't she?"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    Maybe
    Hollande's title is le président de la République française (PDLRF) which would be just POTFR in translation.
    You and your facts! You aren't an expert are you??
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016

    I have never walked out of any negotiation. Sounds like I have been missing a trick!!

    It is last resort, but it should certainly be in your armoury. The look of "Oh shit..." on the other side as you shuffle your papers together and put them in your briefcase is the only joy to be taken from reaching such an impasse...
    Nearly as good as the smiles on their faces as you sheepishly come back in!

    Never threaten what you do not mean.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited November 2016
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    the French 2 round system is excellent, even better than AV as it has a cooling off period built in.
    Nothing can beat FPTP - truly the most awesome and brilliant voting system known to man.
    We should have a poll on it, conducted by AV. . . or better still STV.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    Maybe
    Hollande's title is le président de la République française (PDLRF) which would be just POTFR in translation.
    I was right, my French really is very good. I might write entire threads in French on those elections
    Good Re-Moaning!

    I brung you a massage:

    The Scramming Ogles is planning to writ entire throds in Frunch! We had better tuck evoosive auction!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    the French 2 round system is excellent, even better than AV as it has a cooling off period built in.
    Nothing can beat FPTP - truly the most awesome and brilliant voting system known to man.
    We should have a poll on it, conducted by AV. . . or better still STV.
    FPTP is so good that the Tories use it multiple times in their election for a leader! They just can't get enough of it... :p
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    Maybe
    Hollande's title is le président de la République française (PDLRF) which would be just POTFR in translation.
    I was right, my French really is very good. I might write entire threads in French on those elections
    Good Re-Moaning!

    I brung you a massage:

    The Scramming Ogles is planning to writ entire throds in Frunch! We had better tuck evoosive auction!
    You're no Officer Crabtree.

    I was pissing by the door when I heard two shats

    or

    I jumped out of a Brittish bummer, which was being chased by some German farters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    Maybe
    Hollande's title is le président de la République française (PDLRF) which would be just POTFR in translation.
    I was right, my French really is very good. I might write entire threads in French on those elections
    Good Re-Moaning!

    I brung you a massage:

    The Scramming Ogles is planning to writ entire throds in Frunch! We had better tuck evoosive auction!
    You're no Officer Crabtree.

    I was pissing by the door when I heard two shats

    or

    I jumped out of a Brittish bummer, which was being chased by some German farters.
    "Bummed by the RAF??"
  • The more I think about it, the French Presidential voting system is just like the Tory leadership election system, which we all know is AV in all but name.

    OMG, the Tories use the same system as the French, the shame, the shame
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    The more I think about it, the French Presidential voting system is just like the Tory leadership election system, which we all know is AV in all but name.

    OMG, the Tories use the same system as the French, the shame, the shame

    I prefer "multi-round FPTP". ;)
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    Maybe
    Hollande's title is le président de la République française (PDLRF) which would be just POTFR in translation.
    I was right, my French really is very good. I might write entire threads in French on those elections
    I hope that the threads in question would be written in a language closer to French than whatever SeanT tries to present as "French" in his books...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    The more I think about it, the French Presidential voting system is just like the Tory leadership election system, which we all know is AV in all but name.

    OMG, the Tories use the same system as the French, the shame, the shame

    Apparently Gove is giving Juppe his full support.


    Just in, Gove is running.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited November 2016

    I wonder how long before Germany looks back at Merkel and thinks "She was a bit shit, really, wasn't she?"

    Her period in office reminds me of a lot of US tv shows...starts of well, seems solid, sensible idea, then by Season 3 is a steaming pile of shit with totally ludicrous plot.
  • On topic, people currently working as lawyers will adapt to new jobs.

    The people struggling with competition from robots (or immigrants) are people who can't or don't want to change. These people are strongly represented in rural areas, because if they weren't resistant to change they'd already have moved to bigger towns where there are more opportunities.

    Not necessarily. Perhaps they just don't want to vacate half-decent housing and a nice environment to go and live in a rabbit hutch on a grotty estate?

    Most large urban areas consist largely of areas that are anything from tolerable to downright unpleasant to live in, especially once you rule out those parts where half a million pounds might buy you a run down two bed end-of-terrace in need of a bit of TLC. I exaggerate, perhaps, but only slightly. Especially when it comes to London.

    There's precious little point going to somewhere like London to get a slightly better job if all of the extra money goes on the rent, and you're faced with spending the rest of your life in a poky and vastly overpriced little hovel surrounded by miles and miles of urban sprawl, jammed-up roads and mucky air in every direction.
    I said bigger towns, not London.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    This is some gossip that looks appropriate for PB:

    https://twitter.com/BrentScher/status/798592670511808513

    Also I just realized there is going to be an aircraft carrier called USS Trump now, since american aircraft carriers are named after Presidents.

    Has anyone created a set of Top Trumps yet?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    nunu said:

    MikeL said:

    Dow Jones has just closed at all time record high.

    Normal Republican President then. A boom to be followed by a bust.
    Technically we have a Democrat President - and someone who might become President-elect on December 19th (subject to verification on January 6th by the House).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    edited November 2016
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37986591

    Anyone want to hazard a guess? "Be it enacted by the Queen's most excellent majesty..." is already three lines, so it can't include that.
  • RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37986591

    Anyone want to hazard a guess? "Be it enacted by the Queen's most excellent majesty..." is already three lines, so it can't include that.

    Depends how you define line surely?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37986591

    Anyone want to hazard a guess? "Be it enacted by the Queen's most excellent majesty..." is already three lines, so it can't include that.

    Depends how you define line surely?
    About 50 words, if it's all in one paragraph.
  • The more I think about it, the French Presidential voting system is just like the Tory leadership election system, which we all know is AV in all but name.

    OMG, the Tories use the same system as the French, the shame, the shame

    It's NOT "AV in all but name", you public school thicko! It's called an Exhaustive Ballot.
  • Jonathan said:

    The more I think about it, the French Presidential voting system is just like the Tory leadership election system, which we all know is AV in all but name.

    OMG, the Tories use the same system as the French, the shame, the shame

    Apparently Gove is giving Juppe his full support.


    Just in, Gove is running.
    We all need a Gove resurrection
    A little divine intervention
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2016
    Ms Cyclefree's article is, as one would expect, erudite, beautifully written, and informed by moral clarity.

    But (you knew there was a 'but' coming, right?) since at least 1811, and probably since time immemorial, mankind has become ever more prosperous despite, or in fact because of, technical innovation which has destroyed jobs. 'Twas ever so, it ain't gonna change, and the one completely well-established economic fact amidst all the confusion is that protectionism is the worst possible response. Most PBers are probably too young to remember the nightmare economy of Britain pre-1979, or the prophets of dooms predicting the end of the City in the Big Bang of 1987 - how did that work out? Perhaps the lessons of those times have now slipped out of the collective consciousness of voters and will have to be relearned. I hope not, because the relearning process will be long and very painful, if it is necessary.

    The point to emphasise is this one: if we don't embrace change, change won't be stopped, it will simply move elsewhere. As we painfully learnt in the 1970s and early 1980s, you can protect your industries by injecting ever more taxpayers' money into producing Austin Maxis. At a pinch you can even force your domestic market to buy the sodding things. But you can't force the rest of the world to do so, and you can't compete as an economy if they have embraced efficiency and you haven't. Those of a certain age will remember tearing their hair out at the restrictions of what was then the GPO. When it took months to get a telephone line, and you couldn't connect the latest modems to the phone system, the whole economy suffered. We need to repeat the mantra: never again.

    So we need to embrace globalisation, not go into denial. Yes, existing types of job will be lost. But with increased efficiency (which is what we are actually talking about) new opportunities and new kinds of job - including ones we haven't even conceived of yet - will become available. The key is to stay flexible, in our personal lives, in our businesses, and in the state.

    The government can't do very much to help with this, except in education. Otherwise it needs most of all to keep out of the way, and above all to address the perverse incentives which pop up all over the place. The Cameron government was making good progress on both of these. Let's hope the May government continues the good work.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    the French 2 round system is excellent, even better than AV as it has a cooling off period built in.
    Nothing can beat FPTP - truly the most awesome and brilliant voting system known to man.
    We should have a poll on it, conducted by AV. . . or better still STV.
    FPTP is so good that the Tories use it multiple times in their election for a leader! They just can't get enough of it... :p
    Peepil are Peepil, as Michael Howard might say! :lol:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    Most PBers are probably too young to remember the nightmare economy of Britain pre-1979, or the prophets of dooms predicting the end of the City in the Big Bang of 1987 - how did that work out?

    The Credit Crunch.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    weejonnie said:
    Can't wait for all the behind the scenes stories to emerge.

    The rumours of Clinton being a horrible person have been doing the rounds for years.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    This is very fitting for this thread, texting cows:

    https://twitter.com/ViaAngus/status/798572897056931844
  • Jonathan said:

    Most PBers are probably too young to remember the nightmare economy of Britain pre-1979, or the prophets of dooms predicting the end of the City in the Big Bang of 1987 - how did that work out?

    The Credit Crunch.
    I wasn't recommending putting Gordon Brown and Ed Balls in charge of devising the system of financial regulation.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    weejonnie said:

    nunu said:

    MikeL said:

    Dow Jones has just closed at all time record high.

    Normal Republican President then. A boom to be followed by a bust.
    Technically we have a Democrat President - and someone who might become President-elect on December 19th (subject to verification on January 6th by the House).
    I meant the fact he is going to spend $1trillion of extra spending, and more deregulation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/may/09/opioid-addiction-appalachia-tennessee
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179

    I wonder how long before Germany looks back at Merkel and thinks "She was a bit shit, really, wasn't she?"

    I think she'll win a fourth term.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    MP_SE said:

    weejonnie said:
    Can't wait for all the behind the scenes stories to emerge.

    The rumours of Clinton being a horrible person have been doing the rounds for years.
    Well you put up with all that humiliation from your wandering husband, you get elected Senator, you get beat by some social activist from Chicago when you are supposed to win, you put up with State for 4 long years, you crush all possible opposition in your party, you have to call in a ridiculous number of favours to get rid of someone who is not even a democrat but it's ok because the GOP is committing suicide and selecting the unelectable Donald Trump, possibly the only person in the US with more baggage than you, you can't lose right?

    Bugger.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,648
    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37986591

    Anyone want to hazard a guess? "Be it enacted by the Queen's most excellent majesty..." is already three lines, so it can't include that.

    Biatch. Knock 'em dead. Love, Queenie.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,648
    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37986591

    Anyone want to hazard a guess? "Be it enacted by the Queen's most excellent majesty..." is already three lines, so it can't include that.

    "Execute Order 66"?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    I have found out that there is always a weakness in such systems, we give them 100% trust even when they are not 100% perfect and can never be 100% perfect.

    You can always exploit the bugs for your own advantage.

    Good luck exploiting Deep Minds bugs when you play it at Go
    While what they have achieve at deep minds is seriously impressive, a lot of the theory is actually 30 years old and there are some serious theorical limitations (Which are beyond the scope of this site). There has been a lot of misrepresentation in the media about what is possible with deep neural networks of the kind used by deep minds.

    I was at a talk only last week by one of the worlds foremost experts in ML who stated that he didn't even think neural networks were really the future. He theorized that alternatives will be required to solve many ML tasks (again beyond the scope of this site). It isn't a matter of requiring a more computational power / memory / storage.
    Just started reading Competition by James Case. It looks like part of the book will go into the limits of automated systems in multi-player games and why humans still beat machines at such.

    Robert, he specifically cites Go as a game where computers are not currently expected to compete with the top humans. By the sounds of it, that is not your experience. Is he wrong?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,648
    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37986591

    Anyone want to hazard a guess? "Be it enacted by the Queen's most excellent majesty..." is already three lines, so it can't include that.

    Code 1-1A.
    Code 1-1A-2B.
    Code 1-B-2-B-3.
    Code zero-zero-zero-destruct-zero.

    OK, it's four lines, but it's near enough... :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37986591

    Anyone want to hazard a guess? "Be it enacted by the Queen's most excellent majesty..." is already three lines, so it can't include that.

    "Execute Order 66"?
    To steal another bit from Srar Wars

    "Is that legal?"
    "I will make it legal!"

    :D
  • @viewcode

    That was a Depeche Mode cover version in the Scarlett Johansson trailer!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,648

    @viewcode

    That was a Depeche Mode cover version in the Scarlett Johansson trailer!

    Oh, now you get round to watching it?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    edited November 2016
    viewcode said:

    @viewcode

    That was a Depeche Mode cover version in the Scarlett Johansson trailer!

    Oh, now you get round to watching it?
    No, no, watched it at the weekend! Just waited till I saw you on PB again!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    I have to get something off my chest. Evan Davis's listening face is unbearable to watch! He always treats his guests as if they are precocious 6-year-olds and looks awed that they can even manage to string a coherent sentence together.

    On top of that he can't pronounce Jill Stein...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    MP_SE said:

    weejonnie said:
    Can't wait for all the behind the scenes stories to emerge.

    The rumours of Clinton being a horrible person have been doing the rounds for years.
    Apparently Bill's also a phone-chucker.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3935800/Days-losing-election-Hillary-Bill-Clinton-sceaming-match-blame-flagging-campaign-ex-president-angry-threw-phone-roof-Arkansas-penthouse.html
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Looking at my pension I'm concluding

    a) Its doing ok
    b) Should have gone more than effectively 25% US equities.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494

    I wonder how long before Germany looks back at Merkel and thinks "She was a bit shit, really, wasn't she?"

    I think she'll win a fourth term.
    Me too. She's a bit damaged but she's first division and her opponents really aren't.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    This is very fitting for this thread, texting cows:

    https://twitter.com/ViaAngus/status/798572897056931844

    Not the cows. Their milk can.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Jonathan said:

    Most PBers are probably too young to remember the nightmare economy of Britain pre-1979, or the prophets of dooms predicting the end of the City in the Big Bang of 1987 - how did that work out?

    The Credit Crunch.
    I wasn't recommending putting Gordon Brown and Ed Balls in charge of devising the system of financial regulation.
    Shit ! I didn't realise they were running the economy of all the OECD countries bar two as well.

    So it was Brown and Balls that ruined Lehmann Brothers ? I didn't know that.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It just dawned me on, in 2017 I will be writing a lot of French threads.

    That's an accident waiting to happen.

    I am hoping for some threads on le vote alternatif.... :)
    Well I will be doing some threads on the voting system Les Grenouilles use to elect their POTFR
    POTFFR, surely? :)
    the French 2 round system is excellent, even better than AV as it has a cooling off period built in.
    Nothing can beat FPTP - truly the most awesome and brilliant voting system known to man.
    We should have a poll on it, conducted by AV. . . or better still STV.
    FPTP is so good that the Tories use it multiple times in their election for a leader! They just can't get enough of it... :p
    FPTP = #riggedelection
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I wonder how long before Germany looks back at Merkel and thinks "She was a bit shit, really, wasn't she?"

    I think she'll win a fourth term.
    Me too. She's a bit damaged but she's first division and her opponents really aren't.
    Ultimately, the Bundestag is not elected by FPTP. Initially yes, but topped up by proportional vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    The Remain fightback continues:

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/60bn-divorce-demand-could-wreck-mays-hopes-of-a-deal-prb68d50k

    Senior European and British negotiators worry that Theresa May will be unable to enter Brexit talks because the EU will set impossible demands, including the condition that Britain agrees to pay £60 billion to Brussels.

    Diplomats fear that a growing list of preconditions for the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU is growing unwieldy and will include intolerable demands.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    This is very fitting for this thread, texting cows:

    https://twitter.com/ViaAngus/status/798572897056931844

    Not the cows. Their milk can.
    Old stuff. And won't ever really catch on.

    But if anyone cracks big data analytics for the dairy segment it will be yuuuge.

    (As an aside, this is a really cool company. https://soundtalks.com/mission It monitors pig and chicken health by listening to them cough...)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    This is very fitting for this thread, texting cows:

    https://twitter.com/ViaAngus/status/798572897056931844

    Not the cows. Their milk can.
    Old stuff. And won't ever really catch on.

    But if anyone cracks big data analytics for the dairy segment it will be yuuuge.

    (As an aside, this is a really cool company. https://soundtalks.com/mission It monitors pig and chicken health by listening to them cough...)
    Sorry ! They already do.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surbiton said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    This is very fitting for this thread, texting cows:

    https://twitter.com/ViaAngus/status/798572897056931844

    Not the cows. Their milk can.
    Old stuff. And won't ever really catch on.

    But if anyone cracks big data analytics for the dairy segment it will be yuuuge.

    (As an aside, this is a really cool company. https://soundtalks.com/mission It monitors pig and chicken health by listening to them cough...)
    Sorry ! They already do.
    Sure. There are about 50 companies looking at remote monitoring of cows, primarily in the reproductive segment. A lot of it is external, some of it is internal (although the acidic nature of the rumen makes durability a key challenge).

    The issue is that, although it narrows the window on reproductive predictability, it's not really good enough to make a real difference on farm economics. Hence companies so far have seen limited penetration in this segment.

    If someone comes up with the right product there is a huge opportunity there: I'm just not convinced this is the right product. (As an example, the introduction of sorted semen into the dairy segment has allowed Genus to increase prices by 4-5x vs a straw of unsorted semen. This is because a male calf is worth perhaps $50, while a female is worth $500. Increasing the probability of a female from 50% to 90% is worth a clear premium on the price).

    This is actually a segment I've spent some time in...
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    listen people, quoting Breitbart as a source does not add to your credibility but to your credulity.
This discussion has been closed.