politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » DPP considering complaint that the LEAVE campaigns misled vote
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Anything above 269ECVs for the Donald and I'm going to Fiji with my gf in February paid for by the punters on BF. Anything less and I'll break even. I had a fairly large green position on Hillary that I built up in the primaries when she was wobbling against Bernie, I spent it all on Donald!Pulpstar said:@MaxPB Do you specifically need him to win by 328+ ECVs though, I mean won't 290 ECVs work just as well for you ?
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There are plenty of 4-way polls with him above 42%.Andrew said:Looks like we go into polling day with Trump never having got above 42% - and that even with Johnson's steady collapse over the last 3 months.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html0 -
The policy, in red and white, was £350mCharles said:The policy, in black and white, was £100m. It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-vote-leaves-dom-cummings-is-grilled-by-andrew-tyrie-this-sounds-like-aladdins-cave-to-me/
It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't.0 -
Emerson are a little suspect: they are a landline only pollster who don't call mobile phones.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Jack - have you see the Emerson poll with a 7 point lead for Trump in Ohio? I broadly agree with your ARSE except I think Trump will win Ohio and Maine 2.JackW said:National - Fox News - Sample 1,295 - 3-6 Nov
Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/07/fox-news-poll-clinton-moves-to-4-point-edge-over-trump.html0 -
No, because many Republicans in congress deny it is caused by humans see Trump's remarks that its just a hoax by the Chinese. And Obama has been keen to pass Climate legislation and then he gets blame for job losses rightly or wrongly. See Hillary saying she wants to put the coal miners out of work. Dems have abandoned them. But local dems can still win with right message.justin124 said:justin124 said:
The climate change factor surely would have been personal to Gore rather than Democrats in general It seems odd that Obama lost heavily in West Virginia yet Dukakis carried it in 1988 as did Carter in 1980!nunu said:
More polarized electorate? W.Virgina's economy was very coal based so I'm guessing talk of dealing with climate change put them off, Gore is a big climate change campaigner. Also dems have a demographic problem of their own which is they are losing wwc votes very fast.justin124 said:West Virginia was formerly a very reliable Democrat state until Gore lost there in 2000. Before that time it only went Republican in landslide years such as 1984 and 1972. Nowadays it is seen as a very strong Republican state. What accounts for the sudden change there?
Likewise Illinois was for many years a crucial Swing state - yet since 1992 it has been pretty well writen off by the Republicans.0 -
That doesn't follow. The demographics in NC balance out - blacks and other minorities strongly in favour of Clinton ; whites somewhat in favour of Trump, leading to a race that can only be called as a tie. This is 2% better for the Democrats than in 2012. It doesn't of itself mean the Democrats have won across the board: other states see the Democrats doing worse than last time. Overall a Clinton win is more likely than not at this stage.brokenwheel said:
If he's leading college educated whites he's won the election by a country mile.Alistair said:
If he's leading College Educated Whites then he has won NCnunu said:From 7 point Clinton lead to level pegging.
Trump consolidates the base in NC: now 90% of GOP, up from 80%. 59% of whites, up from 53. Winning white col+ http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/trump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html …
If Trump is leading with college educated whites then Clinton should be very worried. All the assumptions were based on her leading with them.
Going out on a limb here but I don't think he's going to win college educated whites....
College educated whites have tended to Republican in recent years although there is a slow drift in favour of the Democrats.0 -
Well, in individual polls, sure - because of big margins of error. That's why you take averages, or some weighted concoction.williamglenn said:
There are plenty of 4-way polls with him above 42%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html0 -
I think you might have to do with Skegness....it's supposed to be alright in February..close your eyes and you could be in Fiji..possibly.MaxPB said:
Anything above 269ECVs for the Donald and I'm going to Fiji with my gf in February paid for by the punters on BF. Anything less and I'll break even. I had a fairly large green position on Hillary that I built up in the primaries when she was wobbling against Bernie, I spent it all on Donald!Pulpstar said:@MaxPB Do you specifically need him to win by 328+ ECVs though, I mean won't 290 ECVs work just as well for you ?
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I have now ....GarethoftheVale2 said:
Jack - have you see the Emerson poll with a 7 point lead for Trump in Ohio? I broadly agree with your ARSE except I think Trump will win Ohio and Maine 2.JackW said:National - Fox News - Sample 1,295 - 3-6 Nov
Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/07/fox-news-poll-clinton-moves-to-4-point-edge-over-trump.html
Emerson are pretty GOP bullish .... others add two more letters.
Ohio is very tight. I understand Trump has pulled in Palin to make stops there. You don't use one of your few surrogates if you are +7 in a state. GOTV critical tomorrow. Clinton has the ground game, Donald not so much.
Ohio is my narrowest call - Tight as TSE's spandex glitter hipsters ....
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VernacularRobD said:
Of course it'd be in Scott's twitter archiveScott_P said:
How many more times...MaxPB said:Any links to those banners?
twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/747000584226607104
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-vote-leaves-dom-cummings-is-grilled-by-andrew-tyrie-this-sounds-like-aladdins-cave-to-me/
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Emerson are a landline only pollster.0
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Ohio is like Florida in 2012, very tight but irrelevant to the grander scheme of things IMHO.JackW said:
I have now ....GarethoftheVale2 said:
Jack - have you see the Emerson poll with a 7 point lead for Trump in Ohio? I broadly agree with your ARSE except I think Trump will win Ohio and Maine 2.JackW said:National - Fox News - Sample 1,295 - 3-6 Nov
Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/07/fox-news-poll-clinton-moves-to-4-point-edge-over-trump.html
Emerson are pretty GOP bullish .... others add two more letters.
Ohio is very tight. I understand Trump has pulled in Palin to make stops there. You don't use one of your few surrogates if you are +7 in a state. GOTV critical tomorrow. Clinton has the ground game, Donald not so much.
Ohio is my narrowest call - Tight as TSE's spandex glitter hipsters ....0 -
It's a brave call that Jack...get Ohio wrong and your ARSE is at some risk of losing credibility even though it called the other statesJackW said:
I have now ....GarethoftheVale2 said:
Jack - have you see the Emerson poll with a 7 point lead for Trump in Ohio? I broadly agree with your ARSE except I think Trump will win Ohio and Maine 2.JackW said:National - Fox News - Sample 1,295 - 3-6 Nov
Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/07/fox-news-poll-clinton-moves-to-4-point-edge-over-trump.html
Emerson are pretty GOP bullish .... others add two more letters.
Ohio is very tight. I understand Trump has pulled in Palin to make stops there. You don't use one of your few surrogates if you are +7 in a state. GOTV critical tomorrow. Clinton has the ground game, Donald not so much.
Ohio is my narrowest call - Tight as TSE's spandex glitter hipsters ....
But get it right....jeez....the pantheons will be singing ballads to your ARSE for the millennium ahead, the bards and poets will be creating new found eulogies...and the words Jack's Arse will be synonymous with.....greatness....
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Ah yes, the one where the judge ruled that an election manifesto isn't worth the paper it's written on!TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html0 -
Advert not policy paper (not sure it was officially called a manifesto). This article sets out the main policies very clearly.Scott_P said:
The policy, in red and white, was £350mCharles said:The policy, in black and white, was £100m. It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-vote-leaves-dom-cummings-is-grilled-by-andrew-tyrie-this-sounds-like-aladdins-cave-to-me/
It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-365348020 -
There is a difference between fantasy (manifesto) and outright deceit (leave campaign)Sandpit said:
Ah yes, the one where the judge ruled that an election manifesto isn't worth the paper it's written on!TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html
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It's the right thing to do, even if done for the wrong reasons. Every free man (and woman) should have the right to vote, disenfranchisement for life should be illegal.Alistair said:
Good on him. The permanent removal of the vote from people convicted of a crime yet served their sentence in many American states is a disgrace of international proportions.PlatoSaid said:Seriously?
Daily Caller
EXCLUSIVE: Virginia Gov. Pardons 60,000 Felons, Enough To Swing Election https://t.co/RzJ2g94a2T https://t.co/akLelsQkC9
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe has granted voting rights to as many as 60,000 convicted felons just in time for them to register to vote, nearly five times more than previously reported and enough to win the state for his long-time friend, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
McAuliffe sought to allow all of Virginia’s estimated 200,000 felons to vote, but state courts said each individual felon’s circumstances must be weighed. To get around that, McAuliffe used a mechanical autopen to rapidly sign thousands of letters, as if he had personally reviewed them...0 -
I have here one of your posters that’s available on your website and that you’re encouraging supporters to download. That is telling us that we should give the whole of this £350million to the NHS, doesn’t it?Charles said:Advert not policy paper (not sure it was officially called a manifesto). This article sets out the main policies very clearly.
Are you really claiming that a poster downloadable from the website was not describing their policy?
Really?
It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't0 -
The real deceit, of course, came from Cameron who promised to trigger A50 the day after a vote to leave the EU.tyson said:
There is a difference between fantasy (manifesto) and outright deceit (leave campaign)Sandpit said:
Ah yes, the one where the judge ruled that an election manifesto isn't worth the paper it's written on!TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html0 -
Read the BBC article.Scott_P said:
I have here one of your posters that’s available on your website and that you’re encouraging supporters to download. That is telling us that we should give the whole of this £350million to the NHS, doesn’t it?Charles said:Advert not policy paper (not sure it was officially called a manifesto). This article sets out the main policies very clearly.
Are you really claiming that a poster downloadable from the website was not describing their policy?
Really?
It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't
Manifestos carry more weight than adverts.0 -
National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 931 - 4-6 Nov
Clinton 45 .. Trump 40
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/0 -
Dos anyone know who various Bookies (Betfair and Paddy Power) are using for calculating voter turnout? Looking at general figures online shows lots of varying figures for the last two elections.0
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Dominic Cummings was warned about this claim, and constantly pilloried for it by other Leave supporting organisations.
If he now faces prosecution then I would be slightly satisfied that the fool gets his comeuppance. Unfortunately though, this will be used in an attempt to nullify the result if it succeeds. The delay in triggering Article 50 and this court pursuit should probably not be seen in isolation from each other. Remain hasn't given up the fight yet, and there is still a possibility that the result will be reversed through delay and other tactics, until some other event comes along to shift opinion (or another EU based membership deal such as associate membership). If there is actual collusion here is anyone's guess.
One possibility is that the EU might attempt to roll up the EEA agreement into an 'Associate Membership' class - which Norwegian politicians might well agree to . That would remove one soft Brexit option in they agreed to it. Time is therefore not the friend of the Leavers.0 -
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/729616/prince-andrew-brexit-donald-trump-eu-exit
After Gina Miller, Remain gets a boost from another down to earth ordinary man of the people....
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The Brexiteers keep telling us there was no manifesto, and in any case the Leave campaign produced a poster with an outright lie on it, which is the basis of the legal challenge.Charles said:Manifestos carry more weight than adverts.
Does anyone have a transcript of BoJo's speech?
https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/747000584226607104
Does it include the words "Please ignore the poster behind me, it's not a statement of policy" ?0 -
If Air-miles Andy isn't on board there goes any chance of our quick trade deals.taffys said:http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/729616/prince-andrew-brexit-donald-trump-eu-exit
After Gina Miller, Remain gets a boost from another down to earth ordinary man of the people....
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Mr. Taffys, its damned fraternal of Andrew to help make Charles look good.
Edited extra bit: it's*0 -
Indeed. So the man in charge of the Remain campaign was clearly of the opinion that it was a matter for the Government rather than Parliament to decide, having listened to the view of the people?tlg86 said:
The real deceit, of course, came from Cameron who promised to trigger A50 the day after a vote to leave the EU.tyson said:
There is a difference between fantasy (manifesto) and outright deceit (leave campaign)Sandpit said:
Ah yes, the one where the judge ruled that an election manifesto isn't worth the paper it's written on!TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html0 -
Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally.JackW said:National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 931 - 4-6 Nov
Clinton 45 .. Trump 40
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/0 -
''The Brexiteers keep telling us there was no manifesto, and in any case the Leave campaign produced a poster with an outright lie on it, which is the basis of the legal challenge.''
Some remainers remind me of Tam Dalyell and the sinking of the Belgrano.
In the end, even his supporters got totally fed up of his wailing.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, and no objection was raised to Cameron's claim he'd trigger Article 50 the day after the vote if Leave won.0
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The cost of fuel and other price rises due to the post referendum slide of the pound will take a little longer to register, but you're right time is not on the side of the Leavers.TonyE said:Dominic Cummings was warned about this claim, and constantly pilloried for it by other Leave supporting organisations.
If he now faces prosecution then I would be slightly satisfied that the fool gets his comeuppance. Unfortunately though, this will be used in an attempt to nullify the result if it succeeds. The delay in triggering Article 50 and this court pursuit should probably not be seen in isolation from each other. Remain hasn't given up the fight yet, and there is still a possibility that the result will be reversed through delay and other tactics, until some other event comes along to shift opinion (or another EU based membership deal such as associate membership). If there is actual collusion here is anyone's guess.
One possibility is that the EU might attempt to roll up the EEA agreement into an 'Associate Membership' class - which Norwegian politicians might well agree to . That would remove one soft Brexit option in they agreed to it. Time is therefore not the friend of the Leavers.
http://news.sky.com/story/fuel-price-acceleration-fastest-for-years-rac-report-106427190 -
Mr. Song, hence the efforts to delay Article 50, and Clegg's wibbling of a second referendum.0
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Final Monmouth national poll:
Clinton 50
Trump 44
Johnson 40 -
Well I'm not nor was I naïve enough to believe this figure (£350M) in its totality (gross/net etc). There again, I'm still waiting for my interest rate rise GO promised me if we voted to leave (I'm shocked personally, and inconsolable).Scott_P said:
How many more times...MaxPB said:Any links to those banners?
https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/747000584226607104
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-vote-leaves-dom-cummings-is-grilled-by-andrew-tyrie-this-sounds-like-aladdins-cave-to-me/
However, isn't there a logical flaw here in that "we haven't left yet". So how do we know it's not going to be true when we do (and even then there's no timetable)?
Frankly this kind of utter nonsense is the sort of thing poisoning the debate, and making Leavers so thin skinned that victory is going to be "stolen" (it's not like the EU hasn't got form here - see "No votes" in the Netherlands, Ireland, France, Denmark (from memory), and T Blair's promised vote on the Constitution). Both sides were "generous" with the acualtite - it was a robust political campaign.
There's a reasonable point to be made about prerogative v Parliament last week (even if I personally think a direct Referendum question should overrule that), but the judiciary has adjudicated independently, so we should let the due legal process take its course and accept the outcome and act from there (otherwise it's anarchy). But this, possible case. This is bollocks pure and simple, in my humble view, and does not enhance the Remain cause an iota.0 -
Ha ha! If only political ads were held to the same standards of truthfulness and honesty as all other advertising perhaps politicians would be held in the same high esteem as advertisers!0
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''Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally. ''
Reminds me of the final polls in UK 2015. Convergence around 34/34. Completely hung parliament, they all said. Labour SNP coalition openly discussed as the final polls came out. Ed Miliband measuring up curtains.
Result: Tory majority.0 -
WV was a Democrat stronghold for almost a century. In 2000, Gore just had to win it [ or Tennessee, his own state ] and nobody would have cared about Florida.justin124 said:
The climate change factor surely would have been personal to Gore rather than Democrats in general It seems odd that Obama lost heavily in West Virginia yet Dukakis carried it in 1988 as did Carter in 1980!nunu said:
More polarized electorate? W.Virgina's economy was very coal based so I'm guessing talk of dealing with climate change put them off, Gore is a big climate change campaigner. Also dems have a demographic problem of their own which is they are losing wwc votes very fast.justin124 said:West Virginia was formerly a very reliable Democrat state until Gore lost there in 2000. Before that time it only went Republican in landslide years such as 1984 and 1972. Nowadays it is seen as a very strong Republican state. What accounts for the sudden change there?
Likewise Illinois was for many years a crucial Swing state - yet since 1992 it has been pretty well writen off by the Republicans.
Bust promised to increase tariffs on steel imports [ later lost in WTO ]. But he was seen as having fulfilled his promise. It has now become forever Republican. Good. It is a dirty state.0 -
Mr. Roger, madness. Next you'll be saying we should judge pundits based on how right they are (like we do punters).0
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remind me again, which leader had higher personal ratings?taffys said:''Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally. ''
Reminds me of the final polls in UK 2015. Convergence around 34/34. Completely hung parliament, they all said. Labour SNP coalition openly discussed as the final polls came out. Ed Miliband measuring up curtains.
Result: Tory majority.0 -
Indeed.619 said:
Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally.JackW said:National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 931 - 4-6 Nov
Clinton 45 .. Trump 40
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/
Add the ground game and it's looking 5-6 points.0 -
0
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So one of the Supreme Court judges yet to rule on this current case was on the side of the Lisbon Treaty...TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html
"Jonathan Sumption QC, appearing for the Office of the Prime Minister, told the judges: "This case is politics dressed up as law."
The Government argued that the Lisbon treaty is different from the previously-proposed European Constitution on which Labour promised a popular vote. "0 -
Clinton up to 2.9 on RCP poll tracker in the 4 way0
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Don't try and tell me Clinton is popular619 said:
remind me again, which leader had higher personal ratings?taffys said:''Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally. ''
Reminds me of the final polls in UK 2015. Convergence around 34/34. Completely hung parliament, they all said. Labour SNP coalition openly discussed as the final polls came out. Ed Miliband measuring up curtains.
Result: Tory majority. 0 -
Thanks, Prof Watt.
You seem to have set off a debate even more futile and interminable than we have learned to expect between the Leave and Remain diehards.0 -
You should be careful with that line of argument. If it can be shown that Cameron sold the whole referendum on a false prospectus where would we stand?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, and no objection was raised to Cameron's claim he'd trigger Article 50 the day after the vote if Leave won.
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Yes, it was different. It had a different name.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So one of the Supreme Court judges yet to rule on this current case was on the side of the Lisbon Treaty...TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html
"Jonathan Sumption QC, appearing for the Office of the Prime Minister, told the judges: "This case is politics dressed up as law."
The Government argued that the Lisbon treaty is different from the previously-proposed European Constitution on which Labour promised a popular vote. " 0 -
A dirty state? Charming.surbiton said:
WV was a Democrat stronghold for almost a century. In 2000, Gore just had to win it [ or Tennessee, his own state ] and nobody would have cared about Florida.justin124 said:
The climate change factor surely would have been personal to Gore rather than Democrats in general It seems odd that Obama lost heavily in West Virginia yet Dukakis carried it in 1988 as did Carter in 1980!nunu said:
More polarized electorate? W.Virgina's economy was very coal based so I'm guessing talk of dealing with climate change put them off, Gore is a big climate change campaigner. Also dems have a demographic problem of their own which is they are losing wwc votes very fast.justin124 said:West Virginia was formerly a very reliable Democrat state until Gore lost there in 2000. Before that time it only went Republican in landslide years such as 1984 and 1972. Nowadays it is seen as a very strong Republican state. What accounts for the sudden change there?
Likewise Illinois was for many years a crucial Swing state - yet since 1992 it has been pretty well writen off by the Republicans.
Bust promised to increase tariffs on steel imports [ later lost in WTO ]. But he was seen as having fulfilled his promise. It has now become forever Republican. Good. It is a dirty state.0 -
Also in 2012 the polls called it closer than tbe 3% that Obama won by.619 said:
remind me again, which leader had higher personal ratings?taffys said:''Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally. ''
Reminds me of the final polls in UK 2015. Convergence around 34/34. Completely hung parliament, they all said. Labour SNP coalition openly discussed as the final polls came out. Ed Miliband measuring up curtains.
Result: Tory majority.
So in a MOE we could be looking at a tie vs HC by nearly 10% in a landslide.
A lot depends if the pollsters have corrected (or over corrected!) their methodology.0 -
Parliament, the judiciary, and everyone else should be striving to get the rather awkward mandate that the referendum delivered out of the way. Any and all bickering about it is stupid. The country didn't vote to trigger article 50, but it's good enough as a point of delivery. To have any debate about doing so wrecks our rule of law forever.
A referendum instigates a parallel form of government. That's a disaster. We need to get back to just one, however as the primary form of government approved the referendum in the first place it clearly has precedence.
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Crooked Hillary gets more crooked votes. What a slogan.Alistair said:
Good on him. The permanent removal of the vote from people convicted of a crime yet served their sentence in many American states is a disgrace of international proportions.PlatoSaid said:Seriously?
Daily Caller
EXCLUSIVE: Virginia Gov. Pardons 60,000 Felons, Enough To Swing Election https://t.co/RzJ2g94a2T https://t.co/akLelsQkC9
Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe has granted voting rights to as many as 60,000 convicted felons just in time for them to register to vote, nearly five times more than previously reported and enough to win the state for his long-time friend, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
McAuliffe sought to allow all of Virginia’s estimated 200,000 felons to vote, but state courts said each individual felon’s circumstances must be weighed. To get around that, McAuliffe used a mechanical autopen to rapidly sign thousands of letters, as if he had personally reviewed them...
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Maybe, but they'd only work if there was some substance to 'project fear'. In other words if some of it was true.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Song, hence the efforts to delay Article 50, and Clegg's wibbling of a second referendum.
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Depends. We could see a slump in the $ if Trump gets in.logical_song said:
The cost of fuel and other price rises due to the post referendum slide of the pound will take a little longer to register, but you're right time is not on the side of the Leavers.TonyE said:Dominic Cummings was warned about this claim, and constantly pilloried for it by other Leave supporting organisations.
If he now faces prosecution then I would be slightly satisfied that the fool gets his comeuppance. Unfortunately though, this will be used in an attempt to nullify the result if it succeeds. The delay in triggering Article 50 and this court pursuit should probably not be seen in isolation from each other. Remain hasn't given up the fight yet, and there is still a possibility that the result will be reversed through delay and other tactics, until some other event comes along to shift opinion (or another EU based membership deal such as associate membership). If there is actual collusion here is anyone's guess.
One possibility is that the EU might attempt to roll up the EEA agreement into an 'Associate Membership' class - which Norwegian politicians might well agree to . That would remove one soft Brexit option in they agreed to it. Time is therefore not the friend of the Leavers.
http://news.sky.com/story/fuel-price-acceleration-fastest-for-years-rac-report-10642719
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Perhaps Farage could polish his anti establishment cred by organising a mob of sans culottes to march on Buck House while Andy is resident.taffys said:http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/729616/prince-andrew-brexit-donald-trump-eu-exit
After Gina Miller, Remain gets a boost from another down to earth ordinary man of the people....0 -
West Virginia is magnificent.surbiton said:
WV was a Democrat stronghold for almost a century. In 2000, Gore just had to win it [ or Tennessee, his own state ] and nobody would have cared about Florida.justin124 said:
The climate change factor surely would have been personal to Gore rather than Democrats in general It seems odd that Obama lost heavily in West Virginia yet Dukakis carried it in 1988 as did Carter in 1980!nunu said:
More polarized electorate? W.Virgina's economy was very coal based so I'm guessing talk of dealing with climate change put them off, Gore is a big climate change campaigner. Also dems have a demographic problem of their own which is they are losing wwc votes very fast.justin124 said:West Virginia was formerly a very reliable Democrat state until Gore lost there in 2000. Before that time it only went Republican in landslide years such as 1984 and 1972. Nowadays it is seen as a very strong Republican state. What accounts for the sudden change there?
Likewise Illinois was for many years a crucial Swing state - yet since 1992 it has been pretty well writen off by the Republicans.
Bust promised to increase tariffs on steel imports [ later lost in WTO ]. But he was seen as having fulfilled his promise. It has now become forever Republican. Good. It is a dirty state.0 -
I don't think he was 'on the side' of anything - merely making a legal case on behalf of his client. As lawyers tend to do.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So one of the Supreme Court judges yet to rule on this current case was on the side of the Lisbon Treaty...TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html
"Jonathan Sumption QC, appearing for the Office of the Prime Minister, told the judges: "This case is politics dressed up as law."
The Government argued that the Lisbon treaty is different from the previously-proposed European Constitution on which Labour promised a popular vote. "0 -
Someone needs to get the infamous Brexit bus and park it behind the Donald just in case.0
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I admit to being a bit sceptical when he said if he didn't get his own way in his renegotioations he personally would lead the leave campaign. Of course I was ashamed of myself for doubting him and believed everything he said about the EU subsequently. Including this "Some people seem to say that really Britain couldn’t survive, couldn’t do okay outside the European Union. I don’t think that is true. Let’s be frank, Britain is an amazing country. We have got the fifth biggest economy in the world. We are a top ten manufacturer, growing steadily strong financial services. The world wants to come and do business here". We could do with more men of that confidence and sincerity to lead us out. I rather wish he had failed in his negotiations and he had led the Leave campaign as he promised. Sorely missed.Sandpit said:
Indeed. So the man in charge of the Remain campaign was clearly of the opinion that it was a matter for the Government rather than Parliament to decide, having listened to the view of the people?tlg86 said:
The real deceit, of course, came from Cameron who promised to trigger A50 the day after a vote to leave the EU.tyson said:
There is a difference between fantasy (manifesto) and outright deceit (leave campaign)Sandpit said:
Ah yes, the one where the judge ruled that an election manifesto isn't worth the paper it's written on!TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html0 -
OT but is anyone else following Guido's series of revelations on Baroness Scotland, SG of the Commonwealth. The latest one surely means she's a goner?0
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Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.0 -
Stark_Dawning said:
I don't think he was 'on the side' of anything - merely making a legal case on behalf of his client. As lawyers tend to do.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So one of the Supreme Court judges yet to rule on this current case was on the side of the Lisbon Treaty...TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html
"Jonathan Sumption QC, appearing for the Office of the Prime Minister, told the judges: "This case is politics dressed up as law."
The Government argued that the Lisbon treaty is different from the previously-proposed European Constitution on which Labour promised a popular vote. "
"This case is politics dressed up as law" is still a good phrase to use I think.
0 -
Only slightly although having been to some commonwealth events, the intervention of Heads of Govt such as this is unprecedented for what is an "old boy/girls club".RobD said:OT but is anyone else following Guido's series of revelations on Baroness Scotland, SG of the Commonwealth. The latest one surely means she's a goner?
http://order-order.com/2016/11/07/antiguan-pm-baroness-scotland-brought-shame-commonwealth/
The background to Labour's Baroness Scotland getting the job also stank.
0 -
Indeed. He backed the wrong horse. I have a gut feeling (pure speculation on my part) that he didn't think he could successfully lead a Leave campaign and feared he'd lose and have to resign. How ironic that would be if it were true. Leave would've walked it with Cameron at its head.Leedsprinter said:
I admit to being a bit sceptical when he said if he didn't get his own way in his renegotioations he personally would lead the leave campaign. Of course I was ashamed of myself for doubting him and believed everything he said about the EU subsequently. Including this "Some people seem to say that really Britain couldn’t survive, couldn’t do okay outside the European Union. I don’t think that is true. Let’s be frank, Britain is an amazing country. We have got the fifth biggest economy in the world. We are a top ten manufacturer, growing steadily strong financial services. The world wants to come and do business here". We could do with more men of that confidence and sincerity to lead us out. I rather wish he had failed in his negotiations and he had led the Leave campaign as he promised. Sorely missed.Sandpit said:
Indeed. So the man in charge of the Remain campaign was clearly of the opinion that it was a matter for the Government rather than Parliament to decide, having listened to the view of the people?tlg86 said:
The real deceit, of course, came from Cameron who promised to trigger A50 the day after a vote to leave the EU.tyson said:
There is a difference between fantasy (manifesto) and outright deceit (leave campaign)Sandpit said:
Ah yes, the one where the judge ruled that an election manifesto isn't worth the paper it's written on!TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html0 -
Except I don't think the Supreme Court can simply throw out the case and annul the lower courts result. I believe that they have to come down one way or the other.MarkHopkins said:Stark_Dawning said:
I don't think he was 'on the side' of anything - merely making a legal case on behalf of his client. As lawyers tend to do.TCPoliticalBetting said:
So one of the Supreme Court judges yet to rule on this current case was on the side of the Lisbon Treaty...TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html
"Jonathan Sumption QC, appearing for the Office of the Prime Minister, told the judges: "This case is politics dressed up as law."
The Government argued that the Lisbon treaty is different from the previously-proposed European Constitution on which Labour promised a popular vote. "
"This case is politics dressed up as law" is still a good phrase to use I think.0 -
Add in Labour's ground game and they were 2-3 points ahead of the Tories nationally in 2015. Apparently.JackW said:
Indeed.619 said:
Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally.JackW said:National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 931 - 4-6 Nov
Clinton 45 .. Trump 40
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/
Add the ground game and it's looking 5-6 points.0 -
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.Roger said:Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.0 -
Oh dear, Trump is sunk- Telegraph reporting Rees-Mogg has withdrawn his support 0
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Not by me they weren't ....MaxPB said:
Add in Labour's ground game and they were 2-3 points ahead of the Tories nationally in 2015. Apparently.JackW said:
Indeed.619 said:
Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally.JackW said:National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 931 - 4-6 Nov
Clinton 45 .. Trump 40
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/
Add the ground game and it's looking 5-6 points. 0 -
The Dems presidential ground game has copious documentation as to it's effectiveness.MaxPB said:
Add in Labour's ground game and they were 2-3 points ahead of the Tories nationally in 2015. Apparently.JackW said:
Indeed.619 said:
Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally.JackW said:National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 931 - 4-6 Nov
Clinton 45 .. Trump 40
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/
Add the ground game and it's looking 5-6 points.0 -
Has @PlatoSaid graced us with her ECV forecast yet?-1
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-1
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Did she say she would be making one?Jobabob said:Has @PlatoSaid graced us with her ECV forecast yet?
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Can we have this image as a giant banner on PB? Would save so much duplication of effort reminding Leavers of their claim.Scott_P said:
The policy, in red and white, was £350mCharles said:The policy, in black and white, was £100m. It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-vote-leaves-dom-cummings-is-grilled-by-andrew-tyrie-this-sounds-like-aladdins-cave-to-me/
It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't.0 -
Don't worry, I was just having a joke at the expense of IoS! On the subject of ground game, something I've heard is that Trump has engaged with a lot of non-voters, but his organisation is so poor that they failed to get them registered in time for a lot of states and only a few have election day registration. Bone headed if that has even a single iota of truth.Alistair said:
The Dems presidential ground game has copious documentation as to it's effectiveness.MaxPB said:
Add in Labour's ground game and they were 2-3 points ahead of the Tories nationally in 2015. Apparently.JackW said:
Indeed.619 said:
Seems to be a convergence on around Clinton being 4-5 ahead nationally.JackW said:National Tracker - Times-Picayune/Lucid - Sample 931 - 4-6 Nov
Clinton 45 .. Trump 40
https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/
Add the ground game and it's looking 5-6 points.0 -
I have no idea. Any news from her?RobD said:
Did she say she would be making one?Jobabob said:Has @PlatoSaid graced us with her ECV forecast yet?
0 -
And get rid of winning here? Never!Jobabob said:
Can we have this image as a giant banner on PB? Would save so much duplication of effort reminding Leavers of their claim.Scott_P said:
The policy, in red and white, was £350mCharles said:The policy, in black and white, was £100m. It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-vote-leaves-dom-cummings-is-grilled-by-andrew-tyrie-this-sounds-like-aladdins-cave-to-me/
It's astonishing that you spend so much effort claiming it wasn't.0 -
Trump Rampers have been quietly rowing back their "Hillary will be smashed" rhetoric and have now gone for ambiguous "It will be tight/Narrow Hillary win" to try and avoid reputational loss of face.Jobabob said:ECV forecasts currently MIA
@PlatoSaid
@PaulBedfordshire
@JennyFreeman
@MonikerDiCanio
@StuartTruth
My View is either Clinton 294 or Clinton 352, no inbetween.0 -
I don't think taunting the whackjobs is particularly wise. If Trump wins, how could you cope with the gloating?......I couldn't for oneJobabob said:ECV forecasts currently MIA
@PlatoSaid
@PaulBedfordshire
@JennyFreeman
@MonikerDiCanio
@StuartTruth
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Then why are you are expecting one?Jobabob said:
I have no idea. Any news from her?RobD said:
Did she say she would be making one?Jobabob said:Has @PlatoSaid graced us with her ECV forecast yet?
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What would have happened then though? By the token of the pre-A50 challenge, it's inconceivable to think that there wouldn't have been a challenge to the legality of A50 post-event on the same basis and it is reasonable to assume that as it would cover the same grounds in law, that the result would likely be the same. However, it would only by going to the ECJ could EU institutions could be instructed that the A50 trigger was illegal and should not continue to be acted on from their side: and the 2 year clock halted.tlg86 said:
The real deceit, of course, came from Cameron who promised to trigger A50 the day after a vote to leave the EU.tyson said:
There is a difference between fantasy (manifesto) and outright deceit (leave campaign)Sandpit said:
Ah yes, the one where the judge ruled that an election manifesto isn't worth the paper it's written on!TheScreamingEagles said:
This onetlg86 said:
What case was that?TheScreamingEagles said:Leavers don't like it up 'em.
I suspect this will go the same way as the case about Labour's manifesto.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2192093/Stuart-Wheeler-loses-EU-Lisbon-Treaty-court-case.html
If you think the howls of derision are bad now, just imagine that one!0 -
Battleground States - Clarity - Samples Below - 1-4 Nov
PA - Clinton 47 .. Trump 43 - 1,033
WI - Clinton 47 .. Trump 43 - 1.129
MO - Clinton 38 .. Trump 54 - 1.036
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/11072016_sen.pdf0 -
For the sake of being a contrarian - http://www.270towin.com/maps/LLLbyJobabob said:ECV forecasts currently MIA
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Plato's forecasts are measure in Wikileaks emails, not electoral votesJobabob said:Has @PlatoSaid graced us with her ECV forecast yet?
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A sweep of the rust belt states? Ever the optimistwilliamglenn said:
For the sake of being a contrarian - http://www.270towin.com/maps/LLLbyJobabob said:ECV forecasts currently MIA
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Trump has just spent the last 10 mins moaning about Jay Z and Beyoncé's language at a rally.
Really selling himself last minute! Game changer!0 -
Trump has just found that out that almost everyone in his latest huge rally in FL has already voted.0
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0
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williamglenn said:
For the sake of being a contrarian - http://www.270towin.com/maps/LLLbyJobabob said:ECV forecasts currently MIA
That's a much more logical route than a lot of people give it credit for IMO. A smart map. Probably a loser, but has a logic to it.0 -
Of course it won't go anywhere I expect the purpose is to embarrass the Leave campaign. They would love to conveniently bury the issue but it's not going away. Still it's entertaining reading the comments of some of the Brexiteers tying themselves in knots trying so say it wasn't a lie.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nice try, but they also said that, under their proposal, you could spend the £350 on your healthcare plan.MaxPB said:Yes and no. If I give you £350 today and you promise to give me £80 back next year, I've still given you £350. I may receive £80 today from last year's rebate, but I'm still giving you £350 today, as in the payment registered with my bank would be £350 paid out to Richard Nabavi.
There's no getting away from this. It was a straightforward and deliberate lie. I agree with Alastair, however, that this isn't a matter for a criminal prosecution, and I don't expect it will go anywhere.
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How do we put in our ECV predictions?0
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@Barnesian
'Let's rerun the referendum now that we all know a lot more about the options and issues.'
Let's re-run the 2010 GE campaign because we now know the Lib Dem lied about scraping tuition fees.
0
