Nate Cohn has made a tiny last-minute adjustment to his painstaking analysis of North Carolina early voting, and is now projecting a Clinton lead of 1.1% rather than the [?] 6.4% lead he was showing before.
You have to admire the sheer brass neck of these people!
Nate Cohn has made a tiny last-minute adjustment to his painstaking analysis of North Carolina early voting, and is now projecting a Clinton lead of 1.1% rather than the [?] 6.4% lead he was showing before.
You have to admire the sheer brass neck of these people!
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
Despite the flaws of the candidates (and let me set out my stall: Trump is a LOT MORE flawed than Clinton) I think there are competing ideas behind both campaigns that voters are probably tuned into despite being somewhat cynical about the candidates. Voters are clear there needs to be change. The status quo just means decline. Trump wants America to rediscover its sense of purpose with a clear America First policy. Clinton wants America to face the world by embracing its cultural diversity.
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
You might be surprised how few did. I hardly know anyone who will admit to having voted Brexit. Probably best to keep away from all East Coast resorts Butlins Pontins or anywhere in the North East.
I was at 278-260 to HRC this time last week and I still am. However, I'm hugely doubtful about FL and NC. I've given them both to Trump but if Clinton nicks them both it becomes 322-216 which isn't much fun if you are playing the EV spread market.
Throw in wild cards like GA and AZ which I think the GOP will hold and it all looks fraught.
Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
Pray to the ghosts of hanging chads that when it's over, it's decisively over. Can you imagine how tedious the next few months are going to be if this is in any way close.
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
What are Labour values? Apart from 90 days detention without trial, compulsory ID cards and warmongering?
"Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."
More proof that Global warming exists! (The water melting from the polar icecaps has formed a barrier in the mid-Atlantic to the passage of the Gulf Stream.) You have to remember that Northern England is level with Newfoundland and the Hudson bay.
I was at 278-260 to HRC this time last week and I still am. However, I'm hugely doubtful about FL and NC. I've given them both to Trump but if Clinton nicks them both it becomes 322-216 which isn't much fun if you are playing the EV spread market.
Throw in wild cards like GA and AZ which I think the GOP will hold and it all looks fraught.
Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
Despite the flaws of the candidates (and let me set out my stall: Trump is a LOT MORE flawed than Clinton) I think there are competing ideas behind both campaigns that voters are probably tuned into despite being somewhat cynical about the candidates. Voters are clear there needs to be change. The status quo just means decline. Trump wants America to rediscover its sense of purpose with a clear America First policy. Clinton wants America to face the world by embracing its cultural diversity.
Ahh!! like in Rotherham you mean.
Despite all these polls a lot of people make the final decision in the voting booth, I gather. In this election they might just walk out without voting.
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
You might be surprised how few did. I hardly know anyone who will admit to having voted Brexit. Probably best to keep away from all East Coast resorts Butlins Pontins or anywhere in the North East.
Honestly I think it will greatly depend on turnout tomorrow, which is why the Clinton campaign has been keen to make out it's over already. If turnout on the day is high;
Your low turnout map is mine exactly but I do not think it is dependent upon low turnout. It is much more dependent on the surge in Hispanic voters that we have seen in some of the early voting coming through on the day. It is this that I think is going to swing NC , FL and AZ. The Hispanics will be the black vote of this election, not because they love Hillary (who does?) but because they hate Trump and he has gone out of his way to really piss them off.
Looking at the senate, there seems to have been a marked swing towards the republicans in the past few days. I know that Trump isn't as popular as a generic republican senator - but is it possible that the Senate has coat tails?
Nate Cohn has made a tiny last-minute adjustment to his painstaking analysis of North Carolina early voting, and is now projecting a Clinton lead of 1.1% rather than the [?] 6.4% lead he was showing before.
You have to admire the sheer brass neck of these people!
Heh, tiny!
I'm not sure it's even worth explaining, but he's plugged in a newly released poll taken over the weekend, which has Clinton and Trump tied, rather than the one he was using before, from about a fortnight ago, which gave Clinton a 7-point lead.
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
You might be surprised how few did. I hardly know anyone who will admit to having voted Brexit. Probably best to keep away from all East Coast resorts Butlins Pontins or anywhere in the North East.
LOL - exuding yet more smug poison with every utterance.
Had much luck finding all those posts you seem to think I made?
Honestly I think it will greatly depend on turnout tomorrow, which is why the Clinton campaign has been keen to make out it's over already. If turnout on the day is high;
High turnout should benefit Clinton. Low propensity voters are Non college educated whites (strongly Trump); African Americans, Hispanics, Asian Americans and young people (all strongly Clinton). High propensity voters are college educated whites (somewhat Republican) and older people (strongly Republican)
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
What I find so funny about that is that you and Roger can say things like that and then in all seriousness declare, with more than a hint of surprise, that you don't know anyone who voted Brexit, or will admit it to you.
Honestly I think it will greatly depend on turnout tomorrow, which is why the Clinton campaign has been keen to make out it's over already. If turnout on the day is high;
Your low turnout map is mine exactly but I do not think it is dependent upon low turnout. It is much more dependent on the surge in Hispanic voters that we have seen in some of the early voting coming through on the day. It is this that I think is going to swing NC , FL and AZ. The Hispanics will be the black vote of this election, not because they love Hillary (who does?) but because they hate Trump and he has gone out of his way to really piss them off.
On the other thread, someone did helpfully point to statistics showing more than a fifth of the population of Nevada is of Mexican origin, which isn't true of Florida.
On the other hand, the same site shows that's also true of more than a quarter of the population of Arizona and more than a third of the population of Texas ...
Your low turnout map is mine exactly but I do not think it is dependent upon low turnout. It is much more dependent on the surge in Hispanic voters that we have seen in some of the early voting coming through on the day. It is this that I think is going to swing NC , FL and AZ. The Hispanics will be the black vote of this election, not because they love Hillary (who does?) but because they hate Trump and he has gone out of his way to really piss them off.
I do not hold that the Hispanic vote will be quite as crucial as is being made out. Firstly it would only make a big difference on my map to Arizona; Based on early voting a good chunk of the increase in Hispanics is only making up for the underperformance in AAs. As much is made of Hispanic's hatred of Trump, even the most pessimistic numbers for him are better than his numbers with blacks. Only Arizona is a close state without the need to offset the AA vote (because the AA vote isn't as big anyway).
My opinion is the clincher will be what the white vote does, particularly white middle-income men, who are more likely to vote on election day.
As usual, it's mainly about FL and OH which together account for 47 ECVs and less about PA with its 20 votes which although obviously important was never really in doubt as a Dem entrenched State.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
You might be surprised how few did. I hardly know anyone who will admit to having voted Brexit. Probably best to keep away from all East Coast resorts Butlins Pontins or anywhere in the North East.
Top trolling. Plenty of Brexit voters here in Broxtowe, though the Labour ones don't seem to be following through by embracing UKIP, and in general it's all very amicable, which is how we try to do politics up here. Had dinner last night with one of the national Leave organisers and her partner (who is even more pro-Leave than she is). They aren't very interested in detail, merely feel countries should run their own affairs and surely we can manage to sort things out reasonably well; they do agree that Parliament should have the chance to debate and vote on our negotiating strategy. Like most people, they are more reasonable and nuanced when you talk with them than you might expect.
Mr. Tyson, that's rather sad. People can see the same evidence and hear the same arguments but come to different (and valid) conclusions. That's the whole principle behind democracy and electoral choice, after all.
I'm not a Brexit denier Morris...Brexit is Brexit....Lets ave it.
It's just fundamentally the changed country in a way I don't like...it's really upset my Italian wife particularly who feels that she has been rejected by a country that she has contributed to. And our Italian friends just show utter contempt now for the UK for taking such a step, at this time...at this time when we need to pull together. That is why a deal of any worth is not really a credible prospect since we have lost the respect of Europeans.
So lets go for Brexit, enjoy our parochial status, and make the most of being a little xenophobic, nationalist country at the edge of Europe. Good times ahead...
Ah yes, the one where the judge ruled that an election manifesto isn't worth the paper it's written on!
There is a difference between fantasy (manifesto) and outright deceit (leave campaign)
The real deceit, of course, came from Cameron who promised to trigger A50 the day after a vote to leave the EU.
Indeed. So the man in charge of the Remain campaign was clearly of the opinion that it was a matter for the Government rather than Parliament to decide, having listened to the view of the people?
I admit to being a bit sceptical when he said if he didn't get his own way in his renegotioations he personally would lead the leave campaign. Of course I was ashamed of myself for doubting him and believed everything he said about the EU subsequently. Including this "Some people seem to say that really Britain couldn’t survive, couldn’t do okay outside the European Union. I don’t think that is true. Let’s be frank, Britain is an amazing country. We have got the fifth biggest economy in the world. We are a top ten manufacturer, growing steadily strong financial services. The world wants to come and do business here". We could do with more men of that confidence and sincerity to lead us out. I rather wish he had failed in his negotiations and he had led the Leave campaign as he promised. Sorely missed.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
You might be surprised how few did. I hardly know anyone who will admit to having voted Brexit. Probably best to keep away from all East Coast resorts Butlins Pontins or anywhere in the North East.
Top trolling. Plenty of Brexit voters here in Broxtowe, though the Labour ones don't seem to be following through by embracing UKIP, and in general it's all very amicable, which is how we try to do politics up here. Had dinner last night with one of the national Leave organisers and her partner (who is even more pro-Leave than she is). They aren't very interested in detail, merely feel countries should run their own affairs and surely we can manage to sort things out reasonably well; they do agree that Parliament should have the chance to debate and vote on our negotiating strategy. Like most people, they are more reasonable and nuanced when you talk with them than you might expect.
The irrepressible Roger does not troll/ as much as I don't.
My friend who's querying my return to the UK, likening England to the last days of the Wiemer Republic lives in Nottingham.
Did you not think that your friend was humouring you a bit Nick with the niceties about Brexit? He's probably got a swastika tattoo on his thigh to match the jack boots in the wardrobe.
High turnout should benefit Clinton. Low propensity voters are Non college educated whites (strongly Trump); African Americans, Hispanics, Asian Americans and young people (all strongly Clinton). High propensity voters are college educated whites (somewhat Republican) and older people (strongly Republican)
If turnout is relatively high nationally tomorrow it will not be because of AAs who are (understandably) not as enthused this time round, and most of it won't be from Hispanics because there are not THAT many of them. It will be those more low-propensity whites.
I was at 278-260 to HRC this time last week and I still am. However, I'm hugely doubtful about FL and NC. I've given them both to Trump but if Clinton nicks them both it becomes 322-216 which isn't much fun if you are playing the EV spread market.
Throw in wild cards like GA and AZ which I think the GOP will hold and it all looks fraught.
Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
Exactly why I have left the EV market alone, you could call everything within half a percent correctly and that's all blown apart by reality being off by a few thousand votes.
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
That's the spirit Tyson! Anyone who disagrees with you is not only wrong but evil, probably an un-person. Although - just wondering - maybe that's the sort of thing your friend is talking about who says that Britain feels like the last days of the Weimar Republic? (It doesn't, by the way. Not in Manchester, anyway).
How many of us ACTUALLY remember the Weimar Republic? I'm pushing towards 80, and I barely remember reports of the end of the Third Reich!
Mr. Tyson, that's rather sad. People can see the same evidence and hear the same arguments but come to different (and valid) conclusions. That's the whole principle behind democracy and electoral choice, after all.
I'm not a Brexit denier Morris...Brexit is Brexit....Lets ave it.
It's just fundamentally the changed country in a way I don't like...it's really upset my Italian wife particularly who feels that she has been rejected by a country that she has contributed to. And our Italian friends just show utter contempt now for the UK for taking such a step, at this time...at this time when we need to pull together. That is why a deal of any worth is not really a credible prospect since we have lost the respect of Europeans.
So lets go for Brexit, enjoy our parochial status, and make the most of being a little xenophobic, nationalist country at the edge of Europe. Good times ahead...
Oh dear, he's at it again. Don't be tempted to rebut or he resorts to insults
If the statement was specifically "we're sending £350m per week to the EU", then it's not really a lie. That is a statement of fact. However, it didn't take into account that £80m per week was returned as a rebate and a further £50m per week was "returned" via various spending programmes. Not a lie, just dishonest by not providing context. It was up to the remain campaign to provide that context, but as one of them told me, explaining the figure was worse than just accepting it in focus groups.
Coming late to this discussion but it really is a lie. It is not the case that we send £350M to the EU and they then return the rebate. We don't send the rebate in the first place. It is deducted before we pay a single penny. And the rebate is roughly £100M per week, not £80M. So we actually send £250M per week.
Hillary is clearly ahead based on that final RCP projection and should win but remember the final EU ref poll average had Remain ahead by 0.5% and Leave won by 3.8%. If there were a similar error in US polling (perhaps due to higher than expected white working class turnout or the roughly 5% undecided or won't say voting Trump in the booth ) then Trump would lead the popular vote by 0.6%
If the statement was specifically "we're sending £350m per week to the EU", then it's not really a lie. That is a statement of fact. However, it didn't take into account that £80m per week was returned as a rebate and a further £50m per week was "returned" via various spending programmes. Not a lie, just dishonest by not providing context. It was up to the remain campaign to provide that context, but as one of them told me, explaining the figure was worse than just accepting it in focus groups.
Coming late to this discussion but it really is a lie. It is not the case that we send £350M to the EU and they then return the rebate. We don't send the rebate in the first place. It is deducted before we pay a single penny. And the rebate is roughly £100M per week, not £80M. So we actually send £250M per week.
Still quite a bit. Not sure why our net contributions don't get counted towards our foreign aid commitment.
And if they're motivated by demographic displacement, tales of huge turnout of Latinos for Hillary provides a good reason for them to get to the polling booths.
Looking at the senate, there seems to have been a marked swing towards the republicans in the past few days. I know that Trump isn't as popular as a generic republican senator - but is it possible that the Senate has coat tails?
Sporting have just reduced Hillary's ECV spread further from 322 - 332 earlier today to 311-321 currently - that's quite a sharp turnaround from what had been a seemingly relentless climb of 37 ECVs over the preceding 48 hours.
Honestly I think it will greatly depend on turnout tomorrow, which is why the Clinton campaign has been keen to make out it's over already. If turnout on the day is high;
Your low turnout map is mine exactly but I do not think it is dependent upon low turnout. It is much more dependent on the surge in Hispanic voters that we have seen in some of the early voting coming through on the day. It is this that I think is going to swing NC , FL and AZ. The Hispanics will be the black vote of this election, not because they love Hillary (who does?) but because they hate Trump and he has gone out of his way to really piss them off.
I don't think Hispanic voters are numerous enough in NC, and the Republican lead in AZ is too big to overcome. I expect the margin of victory in Fl to be under 1%.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
You might be surprised how few did. I hardly know anyone who will admit to having voted Brexit. Probably best to keep away from all East Coast resorts Butlins Pontins or anywhere in the North East.
Top trolling. Plenty of Brexit voters here in Broxtowe, though the Labour ones don't seem to be following through by embracing UKIP, and in general it's all very amicable, which is how we try to do politics up here. Had dinner last night with one of the national Leave organisers and her partner (who is even more pro-Leave than she is). They aren't very interested in detail, merely feel countries should run their own affairs and surely we can manage to sort things out reasonably well; they do agree that Parliament should have the chance to debate and vote on our negotiating strategy. Like most people, they are more reasonable and nuanced when you talk with them than you might expect.
Hi Nick. Don't you find something worrying about the rabid nationalism and xenophobia during the campaign? There are Brexiteers who have other motives I'm sure-even one or two on here- but all I heard during the six week campaign from those selling the concept was xenophobia. The proof is in their Brexit broadcast which was not only xenophobic but racist and ran several times over the full campaign.
The electorate is 5% larger than in 2012, and percentage turnout will probably be the largest ever. Even the percentage turnout in the primaries was the second largest ever. The "likely voter" metric may be where poll models break down this time.
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
35% of Labour voters voted Leave. You must have met some of them.
Mr. Tyson, that's rather sad. People can see the same evidence and hear the same arguments but come to different (and valid) conclusions. That's the whole principle behind democracy and electoral choice, after all.
I'm not a Brexit denier Morris...Brexit is Brexit....Lets ave it.
It's just fundamentally the changed country in a way I don't like...it's really upset my Italian wife particularly who feels that she has been rejected by a country that she has contributed to. And our Italian friends just show utter contempt now for the UK for taking such a step, at this time...at this time when we need to pull together. That is why a deal of any worth is not really a credible prospect since we have lost the respect of Europeans.
So lets go for Brexit, enjoy our parochial status, and make the most of being a little xenophobic, nationalist country at the edge of Europe. Good times ahead...
When control is back in our hands ( though how unequivocally will be the debate for the next two and a half years or so, EEA/CETA/Rock hard Brexit, or whatever and I edge harder than softer if the EU won't play sensibly - just my leanings) it then should be our mission to show our European friends ( no irony ) and neighbours that there is a way to be outside the EU yet tolerant, engaged, and friendly. To borrow Mr Salmond's line a good neighbour not a surly lodger.
The difference to me is it's our free chosen will to do that, not having "stuff" imposed on us from above. In short people like me need to prove people like you and Roger that your fears are wrong so we all benefit. Deal?
Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
It certainly can, in which case whoever's elected Vice-President actually has to work for his pay for once, as he'll have to preside over the Senate in person to break any ties.
First poll giving Trump the lead in Pennsylvania in weeks, or even months and right on the eve of polling
They aren't given that high of a rating on 538 though, so don't get your hopes up!
We will see Tuesday night but no recent poll, whatever its recent 538 rating, has given Trump the lead in Pennsylvania. He did a rally there yesterday, is doing one today and another tomorrow
Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
It certainly can, in which case whoever's elected Vice-President actually has to work for his pay for once, as he'll have to preside over the Senate in person to break any ties.
Why did they have a Senate that has an equal number of members (giving DC only one Senator would fix that). Similarly for the number of electoral votes!!
First poll giving Trump the lead in Pennsylvania in weeks, or even months and right on the eve of polling
The whole Clinton and Obama team are in Philly tomorrow.They know they are in trouble in PA.
I don't think they know they're in trouble in PA so much as it's the must-win state for them. The SEPTA* (transit) strike in Philly won't help the Dems although it probably won't win it for Trump.
* All you need to know about the difference between the US and the UK is that in the US no-one has reservations about calling a transport concern "SEPTA"
The Hispanics will be the black vote of this election, not because they love Hillary (who does?) but because they hate Trump and he has gone out of his way to really piss them off.
In Florida, many Puerto Ricans will vote for Clinton and many Cubans will vote for Trump but in neither case is this for general "Hispanic", immigration or wall reasons.
I was at 278-260 to HRC this time last week and I still am. However, I'm hugely doubtful about FL and NC. I've given them both to Trump but if Clinton nicks them both it becomes 322-216 which isn't much fun if you are playing the EV spread market.
Throw in wild cards like GA and AZ which I think the GOP will hold and it all looks fraught.
Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
Exactly why I have left the EV market alone, you could call everything within half a percent correctly and that's all blown apart by reality being off by a few thousand votes.
Me too. There's some real balls of steel on this site with the EC betting, especially the spreads. Hillary could quite plausibly get anything from 255 to 355 based on 100,000 votes going one way or the other in a few key states. I'm green as long as she doesn't win by more than 5% of the pop vote.
First poll giving Trump the lead in Pennsylvania in weeks, or even months and right on the eve of polling
The whole Clinton and Obama team are in Philly tomorrow.They know they are in trouble in PA.
I don't think they know they're in trouble in PA so much as it's the must-win state for them. The SEPTA* (transit) strike in Philly won't help the Dems although it probably won't win it for Trump.
* All you need to know about the difference between the US and the UK is that in the US no-one has reservations about calling a transport concern "SEPTA"
I thought the strike had been called off now.Doubt it would have made much difference either way personally.
First poll giving Trump the lead in Pennsylvania in weeks, or even months and right on the eve of polling
The whole Clinton and Obama team are in Philly tomorrow.They know they are in trouble in PA.
I don't think they know they're in trouble in PA so much as it's the must-win state for them. The SEPTA* (transit) strike in Philly won't help the Dems although it probably won't win it for Trump.
* All you need to know about the difference between the US and the UK is that in the US no-one has reservations about calling a transport concern "SEPTA"
Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
It certainly can, in which case whoever's elected Vice-President actually has to work for his pay for once, as he'll have to preside over the Senate in person to break any ties.
Why did they have a Senate that has an equal number of members (giving DC only one Senator would fix that). Similarly for the number of electoral votes!!
I think the intention of the Founding Fathers was that the VP's day job was to actually preside over the Senate, but after the first VP, John Adams, took a very active role as President of the Senate, the Senate didn't much care for that and since the VP has only actively presided when the Senate's tied.
Fun fact: The states have to have equal representation in the Senate. That's the only super-entrenched part of the Constitution - it can't be amended even by the usual amendment process.
Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
It certainly can, in which case whoever's elected Vice-President actually has to work for his pay for once, as he'll have to preside over the Senate in person to break any ties.
Why did they have a Senate that has an equal number of members (giving DC only one Senator would fix that). Similarly for the number of electoral votes!!
I think the intention of the Founding Fathers was that the VP's day job was to actually preside over the Senate, but after the first VP, John Adams, took a very active role as President of the Senate, the Senate didn't much care for that and since the VP has only actively presided when the Senate's tied.
Fun fact: The states have to have equal representation in the Senate. That's the only super-entrenched part of the Constitution - it can't be amended even by the usual amendment process.
First poll giving Trump the lead in Pennsylvania in weeks, or even months and right on the eve of polling
The whole Clinton and Obama team are in Philly tomorrow.They know they are in trouble in PA.
I don't think they know they're in trouble in PA so much as it's the must-win state for them. The SEPTA* (transit) strike in Philly won't help the Dems although it probably won't win it for Trump.
* All you need to know about the difference between the US and the UK is that in the US no-one has reservations about calling a transport concern "SEPTA"
The strike is off.
Whoever decided to have it on election day in the first place is an idiot!
Coming back to the Supreme Court hearing, Farage's rumoured "100,000 march" is troubling, what is the aim to pressure judges or politicians? All sounds a bit like Benito Mussolini's march on Rome.....
Comments
You have to admire the sheer brass neck of these people!
I was at 278-260 to HRC this time last week and I still am. However, I'm hugely doubtful about FL and NC. I've given them both to Trump but if Clinton nicks them both it becomes 322-216 which isn't much fun if you are playing the EV spread market.
Throw in wild cards like GA and AZ which I think the GOP will hold and it all looks fraught.
Just as an observation could the Senate end up 50 all ?
Despite all these polls a lot of people make the final decision in the voting booth, I gather. In this election they might just walk out without voting.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/
FL, AZ, OH: R hold looks secure
NC: Toss-up
NV: Toss-up
NH: Toss-up
MO: Toss-up
IN: Toss-up
PA: slight D lead
WI: slight D lead
CO: D lead
Very hard to call.
Had much luck finding all those posts you seem to think I made?
Thought not.
On the other hand, the same site shows that's also true of more than a quarter of the population of Arizona and more than a third of the population of Texas ...
My opinion is the clincher will be what the white vote does, particularly white middle-income men, who are more likely to vote on election day.
I think this piece from Cohn is important.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=2
Now look at the figures for example for those who haven't already voted but intend to in North Carolina,
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/trump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/795694782387486720
-102 66+%
+2.38 62-65.99
+85.98 58-61.99
+4.18 54-57.99
-102 54-
Clinton 45.5% Trump 42.3% Johnson 4.7% Stein 1.9%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Final RCP electoral college projection
Clinton 301 Trump 237
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
It's just fundamentally the changed country in a way I don't like...it's really upset my Italian wife particularly who feels that she has been rejected by a country that she has contributed to. And our Italian friends just show utter contempt now for the UK for taking such a step, at this time...at this time when we need to pull together. That is why a deal of any worth is not really a credible prospect since we have lost the respect of Europeans.
So lets go for Brexit, enjoy our parochial status, and make the most of being a little xenophobic, nationalist country at the edge of Europe. Good times ahead...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37900080
My friend who's querying my return to the UK, likening England to the last days of the Wiemer Republic lives in Nottingham.
Did you not think that your friend was humouring you a bit Nick with the niceties about Brexit? He's probably got a swastika tattoo on his thigh to match the jack boots in the wardrobe.
I exclude JackW of course!
3/11-5/11
Trump 48% (+1)
Clinton 47%
Don't you find something worrying about the rabid nationalism and xenophobia during the campaign? There are Brexiteers who have other motives I'm sure-even one or two on here- but all I heard during the six week campaign from those selling the concept was xenophobia. The proof is in their Brexit broadcast which was not only xenophobic but racist and ran several times over the full campaign.
The difference to me is it's our free chosen will to do that, not having "stuff" imposed on us from above. In short people like me need to prove people like you and Roger that your fears are wrong so we all benefit. Deal?
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/rivalries/2013/08/hertz_vs_avis_advertising_wars_how_an_ad_firm_made_a_virtue_out_of_second.html
* All you need to know about the difference between the US and the UK is that in the US no-one has reservations about calling a transport concern "SEPTA"
http://billypenn.com/2016/11/07/clinton-vs-trump-whos-got-the-ground-game-to-get-out-the-pa-vote/
Fun fact: The states have to have equal representation in the Senate. That's the only super-entrenched part of the Constitution - it can't be amended even by the usual amendment process.