For the record, this is mine (and have backed). FL and NC are worrying me though (betting wise). I can absorb NC and still win my narrow Hill win bet but she wins FL and it's a bust. If by some chance America does take a Trip to Trumpton, I cash in, through my tears.
Trump Rampers have been quietly rowing back their "Hillary will be smashed" rhetoric and have now gone for ambiguous "It will be tight/Narrow Hillary win" to try and avoid reputational loss of face.
My View is either Clinton 294 or Clinton 352, no inbetween.
Mr. Dawning, my understanding is that Cameron's speech (on security) was rewritten after advanced sight of it caused mocking headlines of his doom-portending. I suspect World War Three didn't feature explicitly beforehand, but it does seem he was planning on a more apocalyptic speech before the papers mocked him.
Yes, that was certainly the explanation that some Leavers started putting about when the text of Cameron's speech was analysed and no WW3 reference was found. But the evidence for this claim remains equally mysterious. Surely such a clumsy and embarrassing volte-face by the Remain campaign would have been newsworthy in itself, yet it was never reported.
Someone that was a credible source briefed a number of newspapers on behalf of No. 10 that it meant WW3. Craig Oliver or some one similar?
Point is the 350m a week lie wasn't just something someone in the Leave campaign said - it was a central plank of their campaign. It wouldn't have been emblazoned on their campaign bus and leaflets unless they believed it would sway voters.
"Jonathan Sumption QC, appearing for the Office of the Prime Minister, told the judges: "This case is politics dressed up as law." The Government argued that the Lisbon treaty is different from the previously-proposed European Constitution on which Labour promised a popular vote. "
I think Trump will do well in the whiter north but lose Florida and I think he'll end up one large state short. (WI could have been MI ) - this is probably the most optimistic scenario I can work out.
''I think Trump will do well in the whiter north but lose Florida and I think he'll end up one large state short. (WI could have been MI ) - this is probably the most optimistic scenario I can work out. ''
I agree, and it makes Florida an absolute key state for Trump. Key. Huge.
For once I am staying in a luxurious hotel, which will - in small measure - make up for the hours of tedious meetings I will need to sit through all week.
If we're going to have to rerun the referendum arguments as a result of this silliness, I do hope the Remain camp will come up with a positive case for the EU as it is and how it will develop and why this is good for Britain.
I may have missed it, of course, during the actual campaign.
I also look forward to having a proper Parliamentary debate before Article 50 gets triggered. The country has voted to leave but it did not determine the type of post-departure relationship the UK would have with the EU and it is entirely appropriate for Parliament to debate this. Those who voted leave should not be so scared of their own case that they are not prepared to debate it in the forum where our laws are made.
As for the US election, I am with US lawyers, who are on both sides of the Trump/Clinton divide. I expect some interesting discussions!
Yes and no. If I give you £350 today and you promise to give me £80 back next year, I've still given you £350. I may receive £80 today from last year's rebate, but I'm still giving you £350 today, as in the payment registered with my bank would be £350 paid out to Richard Nabavi.
Nice try, but they also said that, under their proposal, you could spend the £350 on your healthcare plan.
There's no getting away from this. It was a straightforward and deliberate lie. I agree with Alastair, however, that this isn't a matter for a criminal prosecution, and I don't expect it will go anywhere.
Of course it won't go anywhere I expect the purpose is to embarrass the Leave campaign. They would love to conveniently bury the issue but it's not going away. Still it's entertaining reading the comments of some of the Brexiteers tying themselves in knots trying so say it wasn't a lie.
If the Remain campaign believed it to be a lie, they should have put on their leaflets and battlebus a slogan like "We only send £250 million to the EU every week" If they really thought the figure of £350 m was going to swing the vote and lead Britain to disaster, they were duty bound to reveal the true figure and bang that home at every opportunity. They had access to all the figures and Mr Junker, Mr Draghi et all could have made speeches promoting the true figure. The piffling sum of £250 million a week sent to Brussels or whatever could have been the centrepiece of the Remain campaign But they didn't. Now they regret not trumpeting the true cost of the EU to Britain. It's a bit late.
It's Hillary 308*, the Donald 230 for me. Turnout 60.22%
* If so, that would represent a break-even outcome on my BUY spreadbet of Hillary's ECVs . It could have been better, but it could have been a darn site worse! Food (baked beans, etc) will be on the table!
Extra bit: It's a shame we couldn't have had a prize competition on the POTUS result ..... presmably the bookies were too tight-fisted to cough up a cash prize.
Nate Silver is hinting Trump is doing way better in the rust belt states than corporate raider Romney for obvious reasons.
I think he'll get Ohio, Pennsylvania Michigan and Iowa therefore (but not Nevada and Colorado). Which means if he gets Florida that takes him to 285 or so.
Nate Silver is hinting Trump is doing way better in the rust belt states than corporate raider Romney for obvious reasons.
I think he'll get Ohio, Pennsylvania Michigan and Iowa therefore (but not Nevada and Colorado). Which means if he gets Florida that takes him to 285 or so.
So what is your prediction then, clearly FL is key to it – call it!
"Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."
Nate Silver is hinting Trump is doing way better in the rust belt states than corporate raider Romney for obvious reasons.
I think he'll get Ohio, Pennsylvania Michigan and Iowa therefore (but not Nevada and Colorado). Which means if he gets Florida that takes him to 285 or so.
"Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."
More proof that Global warming exists! (The water melting from the polar icecaps has formed a barrier in the mid-Atlantic to the passage of the Gulf Stream.) You have to remember that Northern England is level with Newfoundland and the Hudson bay.
My map. I think Ohio for Clinton because the early vote has been much better recently.
If you want to back Hillary Clinton to take Ohio, SPIN offer effective odds of 16/9, which are marginally better than the conventional bookies where the best price is currently 7/4.
That's mine too....though obviously I'm more conventional on Alaska.....
Having counted up, I have been to 23/51 states inc DC.
That's a good tally. New York is my favourite place on the planet and I'm off there next week/ though am ashamed to say that Las Vegas gave it a good run for it's money.
"Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."
"The chilliest winter on record"...I can't remember a year when the Daily Express hasn't made this prediction!
Out on a limb but if there were a PB competition I would be saying Clinton 359 Trump 179 with Trump winning Iowa and Ohio , Clinton winning Arizona , Georgia and South Carolina and other marginal states .
Michael McDonald @ElectProject FL #earlyvote Race change vs 2012 via @electionsmith Afr-Am +70.6K (+9.2%) Hisp +453.8K (+86.9%) White +900K (+27.2%) Other +121.5K (+48.3%)
"Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."
"The chilliest winter on record"...I can't remember a year when the Daily Express hasn't made this prediction!
Has the Mail made its usual forecasts? They seem to be the one that has blizzards every week from November to May.
Out on a limb but if there were a PB competition I would be saying Clinton 359 Trump 179 with Trump winning Iowa and Ohio , Clinton winning Arizona , Georgia and South Carolina and other marginal states .
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
That's mine too....though obviously I'm more conventional on Alaska.....
Having counted up, I have been to 23/51 states inc DC.
That's a good tally. New York is my favourite place on the planet and I'm off there next week/ though am ashamed to say that Las Vegas gave it a good run for it's money.
I love the West. New Mexico is my favourite, but I would love to get to Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and Alaska. They are on my to do list, but then there is Canada to cover too.
"Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."
Does that mean we might get Maple Syrup if it lasts until spring:-)
(Motorists not knowing how to drive got themselves stuck, more like.)
Out on a limb but if there were a PB competition I would be saying Clinton 359 Trump 179 with Trump winning Iowa and Ohio , Clinton winning Arizona , Georgia and South Carolina and other marginal states .
South Carolina?
Very few polls here and the last couple have been pretty close . A long shot but needed to win a PB competition
"Two inches of the white stuff left motorists stuck in parts of northern England and Scotland with more snow forecast to fall tomorrow and Wednesday. Polar Vortex winds are to blame for the onset of harsh wintry conditions ahead of what the Met Office is warning could be the chilliest winters on record."
"The chilliest winter on record"...I can't remember a year when the Daily Express hasn't made this prediction!
Has the Mail made its usual forecasts? They seem to be the one that has blizzards every week from November to May.
Brr-brr-brexit. The winters were colder before we joined the EU.
Oh dear, Trump is sunk- Telegraph reporting Rees-Mogg has withdrawn his support
Fear not, a representative (albeit rejected by the electorate) of the most successful political party in the universe (™ PB Tories) has put her shoulder to the wheel.
'Scot jets into the States to show her support for Donald Trump
Donald Trump will make America "better", a former Scottish Conservative general election candidate has said.'
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
Mr. Tyson, that's rather sad. People can see the same evidence and hear the same arguments but come to different (and valid) conclusions. That's the whole principle behind democracy and electoral choice, after all.
Looking at the senate, there seems to have been a marked swing towards the republicans in the past few days. I know that Trump isn't as popular as a generic republican senator - but is it possible that the Senate has coat tails?
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
That's the spirit Tyson! Anyone who disagrees with you is not only wrong but evil, probably an un-person. Although - just wondering - maybe that's the sort of thing your friend is talking about who says that Britain feels like the last days of the Weimar Republic? (It doesn't, by the way. Not in Manchester, anyway).
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
If they've read your posts on here then they've probably already deleted you!
Honestly I think it will greatly depend on turnout tomorrow, which is why the Clinton campaign has been keen to make out it's over already. If turnout on the day is high;
Why the £350,000,000 resonates above all the other tall stories told or written during the campaign is that it was a lie.
A fact that was known to be untrue.
The much reported £4,300 was speculation. It could only be because it hadn't happened yet.
As politicians can write and say anything on leaflets TV or in the press with very few caveats-none to do with honesty-I can't see on what basis this can go to court.
Having said that keeping it in the public eye by threatening to seems like a smart strategy. When the NHS has a crisis or we face a severe and painful downturn there will never be a better rope to hang these fraudsters by than the picture of them in front of their deceit.
Sandy Rentool boasted on here that he pushed the £350m a week for the NHS leaflet through people's letterboxes knowing full well that it was a bare-faced, flat lie. He should hang his head in shame, as should the entire sinister left-nationalist rabble known as 'Labour Leave'.
'Xenophobes for Labour'?. I could never undertand how anyone who held Labour values could have voted 'Leave'. A mystery up there with 'How can anyone with a functioning brain vote Trump'. (Though I haven't seen evidence that such a person exists)
I'm due to come back in February....and my friend emailed back to say the UK feels like we're in the last days of the Weimar Republic.
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
Is your friend on LSD?
It's true, though. Inflation is out of hand. Expected to soar to 4% next year. I've bought a wheelbarrow for my wages. The irony is that only way we can get enough skilled men to build the death camps when we leave the EU is to invade Poland.
Comments
Oh wait...
Nate Silver's Number One rule for polling......
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ok3eJ
Point is the 350m a week lie wasn't just something someone in the Leave campaign said - it was a central plank of their campaign. It wouldn't have been emblazoned on their campaign bus and leaflets unless they believed it would sway voters.
"Jonathan Sumption QC, appearing for the Office of the Prime Minister, told the judges: "This case is politics dressed up as law."
The Government argued that the Lisbon treaty is different from the previously-proposed European Constitution on which Labour promised a popular vote. "
So the real score is Elite 2 Democracy 0
http://www.270towin.com/maps/4beLZ
With no toss-ups.
Clinton 48.4 .. Trump 46.4
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-FL-General-11.7.16.pdf
http://thetab.com/uk/sheffield/2016/11/07/interview-paul-joseph-watson-18264
I think Trump will do well in the whiter north but lose Florida and I think he'll end up one large state short. (WI could have been MI ) - this is probably the most optimistic scenario I can work out.
Changes on 2012:
She wins: North Carolina, Arizona, and Nebraska 2nd congressional district
He wins: Ohio & Iowa.
I agree, and it makes Florida an absolute key state for Trump. Key. Huge.
For once I am staying in a luxurious hotel, which will - in small measure - make up for the hours of tedious meetings I will need to sit through all week.
If we're going to have to rerun the referendum arguments as a result of this silliness, I do hope the Remain camp will come up with a positive case for the EU as it is and how it will develop and why this is good for Britain.
I may have missed it, of course, during the actual campaign.
I also look forward to having a proper Parliamentary debate before Article 50 gets triggered. The country has voted to leave but it did not determine the type of post-departure relationship the UK would have with the EU and it is entirely appropriate for Parliament to debate this. Those who voted leave should not be so scared of their own case that they are not prepared to debate it in the forum where our laws are made.
As for the US election, I am with US lawyers, who are on both sides of the Trump/Clinton divide. I expect some interesting discussions!
But I am a bit daring on Alaska going Dem...
http://www.270towin.com/maps/0AGmZ
* If so, that would represent a break-even outcome on my BUY spreadbet of Hillary's ECVs . It could have been better, but it could have been a darn site worse! Food (baked beans, etc) will be on the table!
Extra bit: It's a shame we couldn't have had a prize competition on the POTUS result ..... presmably the bookies were too tight-fisted to cough up a cash prize.
You have made more of an error than you think
Think Red/Blue.
And my worst-case scenario http://www.270towin.com/maps/2G0Zo
I think he'll get Ohio, Pennsylvania Michigan and Iowa therefore (but not Nevada and Colorado). Which means if he gets Florida that takes him to 285 or so.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Xyxvx
Popcorn for years....
http://www.270towin.com/maps/3b6w1
339 clinton ECV
He is definitely a he. Not sure whether his map was deliberate...
My map. I think Ohio for Clinton because the early vote has been much better recently.
with Trump winning Iowa and Ohio , Clinton winning Arizona , Georgia and South Carolina and other marginal states .
FL #earlyvote Race change vs 2012 via @electionsmith
Afr-Am +70.6K (+9.2%)
Hisp +453.8K (+86.9%)
White +900K (+27.2%)
Other +121.5K (+48.3%)
South Carolina?
(Motorists not knowing how to drive got themselves stuck, more like.)
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/795677947088670721
Unless Democrat polling is not as bullish as public polling. OR she wants to persuade Democrat voters that they've got to go out and vote again.
Perhaps she has pneumonia - again.
'Scot jets into the States to show her support for Donald Trump
Donald Trump will make America "better", a former Scottish Conservative general election candidate has said.'
http://tinyurl.com/zguzqjs
The days are over when you got Nixon 520/ McGovern 17 only for the Democrats to win the next time followed by Reagan 489 / Carter 49
I've managed to go through my contacts lists and delete anyone that I know voted for Brexit as a precautionary move.
Clinton 48 .. Trump 44
http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016.11.04-US-Horserace.pdf
The polls are herding.......
Clinton 47 .. Trump 44
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6/files/AZ_Statewide__LivePoll__Toplines_11_6.pdf
Hence Dem's Michigan or bust.
Or if turnout is low;
Surely after the fiasco of GE2015 and Referendum 2016, the pollsters cannot be doing the same thing again.
Reverse those numbers ....