politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the

First....like Hillary

Second like Trump!
ARSE! Beaten to it!

Sandpit said:

Second like Trump!

Yeh, but this system is rigged.

Sandpit said:

Second like Trump!

Now third like Trump would be something.....even in Utah

Cashing out at 12x profit. I wish my tough decisions were all like that.

On topic, as election day is almost upon us, I'd expect the big players to move in to buy money.

Mr. Urquhart, there's a risk they'll stir up sympathy for the judges, depending on precisely what they say.

Off-topic:

A rather alarming article on Russia's drug addicts and the HIV crisis.

http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2016/11/why-russias-heroin-addicts-are-going-through-hell/

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.

One side effect of this is that we can now see *some* Brexiters' attitudes to the rule of law. It is not a pretty sight.

Jonathan said:

Cashing out at 12x profit. I wish my tough decisions were all like that.

Congratulations to Mike on his judgement.

Nevertheless the 12x is a bit misleading - spread betting doesn't really have a stake; it's simply a bet size. Mike will have had to deposit additional money as margin and, as with any bet, it's the potential loss that matters. Had the weekend's news been that the FBI had uncovered something significant, the swing could easily have been bigger and adverse.

I don't have any problem with the Mail poring over the backgrounds of the Supreme Court judges to try to identify their possible predispositions in this case; I'm planning to do so myself. I do have a problem with them suggesting that any of the judges are actively biased or compromised without the most compelling of evidence. This isn't it and is fit only for crackpots.

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

No matter what the question, the answer is always "More Europe". What's more interesting is if they will tone down the rhetoric before the Italian referendum and the French presidential election. Could be two more surprises in store for the EU élites following on from the Brexit vote.

ARSE4US

The Trump Empire Strikes Back

1200 seconds

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

https://twitter.com/markcurtis30/status/795259706612862977

Not sure how a vessel commissioned and built before Brexit can be seen as evidence of post-Brexit anything. Still, we'll can look forward to an enthusiastic embracing of a Trident replacement for real evidence of Brexit Britain's engagement with the wider world!

AlastairMeeks said:

I don't have any problem with the Mail poring over the backgrounds of the Supreme Court judges to try to identify their possible predispositions in this case; I'm planning to do so myself. I do have a problem with them suggesting that any of the judges are actively biased or compromised without the most compelling of evidence. This isn't it and is fit only for crackpots.

Condemnation by association is surely run-of-the-mill in politics. That politician is a terrorist-sympathiser because he attended the same event as ...; that journalist is biased because she once worked for ...

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

If there's an EU to rejoin.

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.

Most interesting from a man that only recently was assuring us he was now "retired" and looking forward to spending time with his family and down the pub.

The pub in question is the George, directly opposite the law courts in the Strand.

UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
. @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


1930s Germany?

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

To rejoin after Brexit would require the UK to join the eurozone and Schengen, the UK may eventually join EFTA, which it was a member of before it joined the EU but I cannot see it joining the EU again once Article 50 has been invoked and the terms of departure agreed

rottenborough said:

UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
. @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


1930s Germany?

Or 2016 USA. Judges in a Supreme Court will from time to time be asked to make judgments which are political. Perhaps it's not entirely right that they are appointed with no public oversight. The current system looks like an establishment insider job. It may be perfectly fine but it might, on reflection, be better to have a more open and transparent appointment process.

Deleted: beaten to it.

peter_from_putney said:

Mike - I did likewise with one third of my spread bet on Hillary at the same price as your goodself but decided, at least for now, to hold onto the other two thirds.
It's a difficult call, especially with the likes of 538.com continuing to have her winning < 300 ECVs. But with Florida's result supposedly on on a knife edge and that state alone commanding a winner takes all 29 ECVs, this is definitely not a betting market for the faint hearted.
Over the past few days I've pretty much stuck with a figure of 308 for Hillary, but I'm open to persuasion either way over the next 40 hours or thereabouts.

With NV and NH now looking locked in for Clinton and FL early voting looking very promising, I am now at 313 for Clinton on my prediction sheet.

edmundintokyo said:

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

Disagree, think about the demographics.

Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.

FPT

619 said:

https://twitter.com/jesseberney/status/795436670057377792

Early voting was shorter in 2012. There were 4.5M early voters then, we look to be well over 6M now so it would be hard for the black vote in raw numbers to decrease over 2012 unless their vote had completely collapsed. However AA proportion of the vote has decreased, there are many more whites than 2012 too. So no, Hillary only just overtaking the 2012 vote in raw numbers is not good.

FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT ****

ARSE4US FOP CALLS :

FLORIDA - CLINTON
OHIO - CLINTON
PENNSYLVANIA - CLINTON

HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

.......................................................................................................

Battleground States Calls For Trump :

Iowa .. Arizona .. Texas .. Georgia .. Utah ..
..........................................................

Battleground States Calls For Clinton :

Ohio .. New Hampshire .. Pennsylvania .. Michigan .. Wisconsin .. North Carolna .. Florida .. Colorado .. Nevada
...........................................................

Electoral College :

Clinton 341 .. Trump 197

MAP :

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Kj6dk

The ARSE has produced a landslide! A brave call Jack

HYUFD said:

It all depends on turnout. Around 70 to 80% of Americans are still to vote and will be voting tomorrow. If white working class and lower middle-class voters turnout in higher than expected numbers then that will benefit Trump, especially if more African Americans and millenials stay at home compared to 2012 and it could stiill be close. If white working class turnout is not changed significantly from 2012, African American and millenial turnout is unchanged and Hispanic turnout is up significantly as has been suggested from the early voting then Clinton should win reasonably comfortably

In Nevada, Florida and North Carolina something like two thirds to three quarters have already voted, though, so those states are less dependent on election day voting.

On topic, well done Mke on making some money, although for me (and I think most of us) the spreads on something so unpredictable and with a huge spread margin are playing with fire! Saving my money for tomorrow night's popcorn!

Edit: and as if to make the point, @JackW predicts the landslide!

rottenborough said:

JackW said:

FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT **** FINAL ARSE4US ALERT ****

ARSE4US FOP CALLS :

FLORIDA - CLINTON
OHIO - CLINTON
PENNSYLVANIA - CLINTON

HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

.......................................................................................................

Battleground States Calls For Trump :

Iowa .. Arizona .. Texas .. Georgia .. Utah ..
..........................................................

Battleground States Calls For Clinton :

Ohio .. New Hampshire .. Pennsylvania .. Michigan .. Wisconsin .. North Carolna .. Florida .. Colorado .. Nevada
...........................................................

Electoral College :

Clinton 341 .. Trump 197

MAP :

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Kj6dk

Not so sure about Ohio Jack.

I have Ohio as Trump but AZ as Clinton.

337 by my map.

HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

46th President within 4 years?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, one might say the same of those who voted Remain not leaping to condemn Clegg's call for a second referendum.

As in the pre-vote phase, there are jesters and oafs on both sides.

Calling for a second referendum is foolish, not undemocratic. Indeed, you suggesting that there is anything illegitimate about calling for a second referendum is itself troubling and indicative of a narrrow minded Brexit-obsessive mindset. The vote on 23 June was not of unique stature or holiness. It could be superseded in future.

Roger said:

The ARSE has produced a landslide! A brave call as ever Jack

but no Alaska!

rottenborough said:

Not so sure about Ohio Jack.

It was the cliffhanger call of 2016. 0.5 point win for Clinton. Essentially her ground game tips the balance. As with Obama in 08/12 it's worth about 1.5 points in the swing states. This time might even be more as the Trump ground game is awful in many states.

In 2012 the ARSE cliffhanger was Florida. I called it for Romney by 1 point and Obama nicked it by one !! ...

IanB2 said:

Roger said:

The ARSE has produced a landslide! A brave call as ever Jack

but no Alaska!

Baked Alaska for Trump ....

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I see the daily mail aren't backing down from their enemy of the people routine, today publishing profiles of the supreme court judges pointing out any connections to EU & previous judgments that the Daily Mail doesn't approve of.

Meanwhile, Farage is planning to march on the Court with a load of his fellow pitchforkers apparently.

Most interesting from a man that only recently was assuring us he was now "retired" and looking forward to spending time with his family and down the pub.

I saw Farage on Marr yesterday and interestingly he said that while he was finished with party politics, he would not stop campaigning.

He enjoys the attention, but can't be arsed with the responsibility bit.

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, one might say the same of those who voted Remain not leaping to condemn Clegg's call for a second referendum.

As in the pre-vote phase, there are jesters and oafs on both sides.

Calling for a second referendum is foolish, not undemocratic. Indeed, you suggesting that there is anything illegitimate about calling for a second referendum is itself troubling and indicative of a narrrow minded Brexit-obsessive mindset. The vote on 23 June was not of unique stature or holiness. It could be superseded in future.

Its undemocratic if people believe that votes should continue to be held until the 'right' result is achieved and then stopped. And that I would suggest is the mentality of some people.

Now if any Leavers are saying that people shouldn't be allowed to campaign to re-join the EU after leaving or put re-joining the EU to voters in a referendum then they would be undemocratic.

Anyway time to do some work, have fun fellow PBers.

rottenborough said:

UKIP really revealing their true nature now that Brexit is underway and they are looking for the next stage:

Chris Mason ‏@ChrisMasonBBC 30m30 minutes ago
. @SuzanneEvans1 of @UKIP
tells @BBCr4today judges should be subject "to a degree of democratic control"


1930s Germany?

As much as I detest UKIP and this current bout of judge baiting, surely she means something like the US Supreme Court?

Edit: Sorry, point made multiply up thread. Too slow!

another_richard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, one might say the same of those who voted Remain not leaping to condemn Clegg's call for a second referendum.

As in the pre-vote phase, there are jesters and oafs on both sides.

Calling for a second referendum is foolish, not undemocratic. Indeed, you suggesting that there is anything illegitimate about calling for a second referendum is itself troubling and indicative of a narrrow minded Brexit-obsessive mindset. The vote on 23 June was not of unique stature or holiness. It could be superseded in future.

Its undemocratic if people believe that votes should continue to be held until the 'right' result is achieved and then stopped. And that I would suggest is the mentality of some people.

Now if any Leavers are saying that people shouldn't be allowed to campaign to re-join the EU after leaving or put re-joining the EU to voters in a referendum then they would be undemocratic.

Anyway time to do some work, have fun fellow PBers.

As if you would have criticised Leavers for asking for a further vote if Remain had won.

Alanbrooke said:

JackW said:

peter_from_putney said:

A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

* Ohio has 18 ECVs

Turnout projection 62%

The really good news is the US election is over this week and we can 3 years of peace before the circus hits town again.

Our void to be filled with three years of Brexit.

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Europhiles showing how much they have learned...

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/795498856423313408

The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.

When? We are never going to rejoin.

Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.

How about not leaving in the first place? That wouldn't be rejoining.

Although if Le Pen gets elected and the EU shatters, the "Brexit" option changes into SODZ - Staying Out of the Deutschmark Zone. Still, the City will sort it out by piling into India in return for allowing huge Indian immigration to Britain. The popular will must be respected, eh? "Brexit means Brexit". What could go wrong?

MarqueeMark said:

HILLARY CLINTON IS THE 45th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES

46th President within 4 years?

A "Benedict XVI Clinton" scenario.

OT Japan is live-tweeting what I'm pretty sure is an imaginary Godzilla attack.
https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=#シンゴジ実況

You have to wonder if this election is really happening or if it's just people on the internet doing a spontaneous distopian role-play thing.

Mr. Tokyo, I hope you survive the Godzilla attack.

@JackW That turnout prediction is quite amazing, it'd mean over 70 million votes for Hillary Clinton if I'm following your logic, and also that Trump should beat George Bush's 62 million in 2004.

Alanbrooke said:

JackW said:

peter_from_putney said:

A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?

* Ohio has 18 ECVs

Turnout projection 62%

The really good news is the US election is over this week and we can have 3 years of peace before the circus hits town again.

Apparently Obama plans to spend the next few years campaigning for AV, I'm not sure if that's something we've ever discussed here.

MonikerDiCanio said:

I'd hate to see your ARSE schlonged but that's asking for it.

It's a kind offer on your behalf but I regret you'll be severely disappointed.