A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?
* Ohio has 18 ECVs
Turnout projection 62%
The really good news is the US election is over this week and we can 3 years of peace before the circus hits town again.
Our void to be filled with three years of Brexit.
2 years of Brexit, and 1 year of sunlit uplands....
Early voting was shorter in 2012. There were 4.5M early voters then, we look to be well over 6M now so it would be hard for the black vote in raw numbers to decrease over 2012 unless their vote had completely collapsed. However AA proportion of the vote has decreased, there are many more whites than 2012 too. So no, Hillary only just overtaking the 2012 vote in raw numbers is not good.
that wasnt counting sundays soul to the polls. I imagine that raw figure went up massively
I really doubt it, Souls to the Polls Sunday was last Sunday. Only a few counties were open this Sunday as it is not a mandatory voting day. Of the ones that were many are not high AA areas. The total early vote this Sunday will be much smaller than other days judging by previous elections. It's not going to have an impact on the proportion of vote.
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Disagree, think about the demographics.
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.
And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.
The word you're searching for is "accountability"
Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.
The US system of elected/overtly partisan judges is not one I wish to adopt.
A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?
* Ohio has 18 ECVs
Turnout projection 62%
Thanks Jack, though the Betfair band bprder is at 62%!
Higberor lower. I am thinking higher.
Wow, 2012 Turnout was 54.87% and 2008 was 58.2% This is a big call by the ARSE.
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Disagree, think about the demographics.
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.
Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?
* Ohio has 18 ECVs
Turnout projection 62%
Thanks Jack, though the Betfair band border is at 62%!
Higher or lower. I am thinking higher.
Wow, 2012 Turnout was 54.87% and 2008 was 58.2% This is a big call by the ARSE.
I can't see Hillary winning as comfortably as @JackW says if turnout is 62%.
A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?
* Ohio has 18 ECVs
Turnout projection 62%
Thanks Jack, though the Betfair band bprder is at 62%!
Higberor lower. I am thinking higher.
Wow, 2012 Turnout was 54.87% and 2008 was 58.2% This is a big call by the ARSE.
I think tbe way Betfair calculates it is a couple of points higher.
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Disagree, think about the demographics.
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
They generally show their passports going out. Thirty years ago, you occasionally had to show them at Calais too, and more rigmarole was needed to get to Prague but fewer wanted to go there.
And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.
The word you're searching for is "accountability"
Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.
Yes, judges standing for re-election is a problem. The way to elect judges would be for a single term only, after which they would have to sit out the next term.
In the US there are very few people given permanent appointments to any high profile public role, as opposed to in the UK where we have the senior civil service - everyone is either appointed to serve a politician or elected by the public. This leads to a bunch of unintended consequences, such as the political interference in the electoral process. Unfortunately, like most of these things, it suffers from great inertia and is difficult to change.
In the UK we have not had a problem with activist judges, and they're generally understood to be impartial. If the judges rule against the PM in the Art. 50 case, then a single line Bill through Parliament will suffice to allow the referendum result to be implemented. If I were the PM I'd do it the day before the Christmas recess, with the warning that no-one was going home until it passed!
Early voting was shorter in 2012. There were 4.5M early voters then, we look to be well over 6M now so it would be hard for the black vote in raw numbers to decrease over 2012 unless their vote had completely collapsed. However AA proportion of the vote has decreased, there are many more whites than 2012 too. So no, Hillary only just overtaking the 2012 vote in raw numbers is not good.
that wasnt counting sundays soul to the polls. I imagine that raw figure went up massively
I really doubt it, Souls to the Polls Sunday was last Sunday. Only a few counties were open this Sunday as it is not a mandatory voting day. Of the ones that were many are not high AA areas. The total early vote this Sunday will be much smaller than other days judging by previous elections. It's not going to have an impact on the proportion of vote.
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Disagree, think about the demographics.
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.
Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
It is, however, the relatively poor manual workers who cant really afford to drive 1000 miles to enjoy a beer, ski down the Alps and enjoy the vistas that have lost their jobs.
But I suppose that doesn't matter to most on this website.
And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.
The word you're searching for is "accountability"
Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.
Yes, judges standing for re-election is a problem. The way to elect judges would be for a single term only, after which they would have to sit out the next term.
In the US there are very few people given permanent appointments to any high profile public role, as opposed to in the UK where we have the senior civil service - everyone is either appointed to serve a politician or elected by the public. This leads to a bunch of unintended consequences, such as the political interference in the electoral process. Unfortunately, like most of these things, it suffers from great inertia and is difficult to change.
In the UK we have not had a problem with activist judges, and they're generally understood to be impartial. If the judges rule against the PM in the Art. 50 case, then a single line Bill through Parliament will suffice to allow the referendum result to be implemented. If I were the PM I'd do it the day before the Christmas recess, with the warning that no-one was going home until it passed!
The most damage has been caused by Labour's decision to rename immigration tribunal panel members "judges" despite their lack of legal training. If you look at many of the silly decisions and scandals that the Mail gets upset by it's that group not what you or I might think of - recorders, HCJ or SCJ.
No surprise to see some on the right calling for "democratic" oversight of judges because a court decision has been handed down that they do not like. The far left believes in this too. Just another case of the two wings circling to join each other.
I remain to be convinced that early voting says that much. It's the usual virtue signalling from the Left. "THIS is how much I hate Trump." They get to feel good about themselves a few days early.
I also subscribe to the Shy Trump Theory. I reckon most folks would rather show strangers their internet browsing history than admit to voting Trump, especially amongst the independents.
I still think Clinton wins - but I'm in the "only just" camp. Like I was with Remain on the day before....I could be wrong.
There is a lot of talk about not giving our negotiating strategy with the EU27 away in advance. In India we are doing the opposite. The message is "Please, Please, Please do a deal with us. Any deal. Please." It's no surprise, of course. We do need a deal a whole lot more than the Indians do. So, if we are to get one, it will be pretty much on their terms. See Iceland and China.
No surprise to see some on the right calling for "democratic" oversight of judges because a court decision has been handed down that they do not like. The far left believes in this too. Just another case of the two wings circling to join each other.
Absolutely. The problem is the extremes seem to be in control of the debate at the moment.
And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.
The word you're searching for is "accountability"
Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.
Yes, judges standing for re-election is a problem. The way to elect judges would be for a single term only, after which they would have to sit out the next term.
In the US there are very few people given permanent appointments to any high profile public role, as opposed to in the UK where we have the senior civil service - everyone is either appointed to serve a politician or elected by the public. This leads to a bunch of unintended consequences, such as the political interference in the electoral process. Unfortunately, like most of these things, it suffers from great inertia and is difficult to change.
In the UK we have not had a problem with activist judges, and they're generally understood to be impartial. If the judges rule against the PM in the Art. 50 case, then a single line Bill through Parliament will suffice to allow the referendum result to be implemented. If I were the PM I'd do it the day before the Christmas recess, with the warning that no-one was going home until it passed!
The most damage has been caused by Labour's decision to rename immigration tribunal panel members "judges" despite their lack of legal training. If you look at many of the silly decisions and scandals that the Mail gets upset by it's that group not what you or I might think of - recorders, HCJ or SCJ.
But it's undermined respect for the system.
The Tories have had six years to change the name. They haven't. Clearly they have no problem with it.
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Disagree, think about the demographics.
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.
Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
It is, however, the relatively poor manual workers who cant really afford to drive 1000 miles to enjoy a beer, ski down the Alps and enjoy the vistas that have lost their jobs.
But I suppose that doesn't matter to most on this website.
But unemployment is low. This South Park-esque "They've taken all our jaaabs" stuff is just total sh1te.
There is a lot of talk about not giving our negotiating strategy with the EU27 away in advance. In India we are doing the opposite. The message is "Please, Please, Please do a deal with us. Any deal. Please." It's no surprise, of course. We do need a deal a whole lot more than the Indians do. So, if we are to get one, it will be pretty much on their terms. See Iceland and China.
Don't be ridiculous. You're becoming like a headless chicken. A trade deal with India of peripheral importance and India doesn't really want any trade deals given their addiction to tariff income.
A brave call Jack, very brave, especially as regards Ohio*. I imagine OGH is spitting out his cornflakes as he reads this. Any views as regards turnout please?
* Ohio has 18 ECVs
Turnout projection 62%
The really good news is the US election is over this week and we can 3 years of peace before the circus hits town again.
Our void to be filled with three years of Brexit.
2 years of Brexit, and 1 year of sunlit uplands....
I'm sure we can argue about sunlit uplands too.
I go along with Jack's arse with the exception of Ohio, which I think will go Trump.
@Pulpstar, if turnout is high I think that will help Clinton. Demographics are trending away from the Republicans. Feet on the ground, most of those voting Trump are those that always vote Republican. Low propensity voters will largely break for the Democrats.
215 OH 230 NC 236 NV 266 FL 270 NH <- New Hampshire to win 286 MI 433 MD(*) 521 CA 538 DC
Without Nevada, Trump requires Michigan to win - in my view IF he has won New Hampshire he has most likely taken at least one of the Great Lake states too.
* Nate Silver has Maryland as the state before DC.
DC is unequivocally the safest ECV votes for Clinton - any model that doesn't show this is simply wrong.
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Disagree, think about the demographics.
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.
Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
It is, however, the relatively poor manual workers who cant really afford to drive 1000 miles to enjoy a beer, ski down the Alps and enjoy the vistas that have lost their jobs.
But I suppose that doesn't matter to most on this website.
But unemployment is low. This South Park-esque "They've taken all our jaaabs" stuff is just total sh1te.
The absolute employment rate in the us is ~68% compared to 74% over here. In reality around 11% of working age Americans are out of work, half of them have just stopped looking and are now classed as inactive.
And subject to a level of accusations of corruption that is unheard of in the UK.
The word you're searching for is "accountability"
Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.
Yes, judges standing for re-election is a problem. The way to elect judges would be for a single term only, after which they would have to sit out the next term.
In the US there are very few people given permanent appointments to any high profile public role, as opposed to in the UK where we have the senior civil service - everyone is either appointed to serve a politician or elected by the public. This leads to a bunch of unintended consequences, such as the political interference in the electoral process. Unfortunately, like most of these things, it suffers from great inertia and is difficult to change.
In the UK we have not had a problem with activist judges, and they're generally understood to be impartial. If the judges rule against the PM in the Art. 50 case, then a single line Bill through Parliament will suffice to allow the referendum result to be implemented. If I were the PM I'd do it the day before the Christmas recess, with the warning that no-one was going home until it passed!
The most damage has been caused by Labour's decision to rename immigration tribunal panel members "judges" despite their lack of legal training. If you look at many of the silly decisions and scandals that the Mail gets upset by it's that group not what you or I might think of - recorders, HCJ or SCJ.
But it's undermined respect for the system.
The Tories have had six years to change the name. They haven't. Clearly they have no problem with it.
Would the LibDems in the Coalition have allowed a return to "the House of Lords"? Nah... So that's five of the six accounted for....
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Disagree, think about the demographics.
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.
Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
It is, however, the relatively poor manual workers who cant really afford to drive 1000 miles to enjoy a beer, ski down the Alps and enjoy the vistas that have lost their jobs.
But I suppose that doesn't matter to most on this website.
But unemployment is low. This South Park-esque "They've taken all our jaaabs" stuff is just total sh1te.
The absolute employment rate in the us is ~68% compared to 74% over here. In reality around 11% of working age Americans are out of work, half of them have just stopped looking and are now classed as inactive.
I was actually talking about in the UK. You can't drive to the Alps from Arkansas!
Early voting was shorter in 2012. There were 4.5M early voters then, we look to be well over 6M now so it would be hard for the black vote in raw numbers to decrease over 2012 unless their vote had completely collapsed. However AA proportion of the vote has decreased, there are many more whites than 2012 too. So no, Hillary only just overtaking the 2012 vote in raw numbers is not good.
that wasnt counting sundays soul to the polls. I imagine that raw figure went up massively
I really doubt it, Souls to the Polls Sunday was last Sunday. Only a few counties were open this Sunday as it is not a mandatory voting day. Of the ones that were many are not high AA areas. The total early vote this Sunday will be much smaller than other days judging by previous elections. It's not going to have an impact on the proportion of vote.
I said AA areas not Democrat. There are many AAs in Republican counties in Florida.
The vote this Sunday will be much smaller than a normal day anyway. It was in 2012 and 2008. It isn't going to change the AA numbers much, possibly the Hispanic numbers though.
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Disagree, think about the demographics.
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.
Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
It is, however, the relatively poor manual workers who cant really afford to drive 1000 miles to enjoy a beer, ski down the Alps and enjoy the vistas that have lost their jobs.
But I suppose that doesn't matter to most on this website.
But unemployment is low. This South Park-esque "They've taken all our jaaabs" stuff is just total sh1te.
But wages haven't gone up - and standard of living in the UK is falling. However if you want to have the attitude "You have a job - shut up" then so be it.
"In key respects middle income families with children now more closely resemble poor families than in the past. Half are now renters rather than owner occupiers and, while poorer families have become less reliant on benefits as employment has risen, middle- income households with children now get 30% of their income from benefits and tax credits, up from 22% 20 years ago."
Good. Why should be be placing bureaucratic barriers in the way of entrepreneurs wanting to set up in the UK, bringing investment and creating jobs?
I'd go further, why should we get in the way of anyone who can make a net contribution to British society, whether by bringing investment, earning a high salary or filling a genuine skills gap - no matter from which country they originate?
"Britain is the worst place" I suggest this young man gets out of his own arse long enough to see what India is doing at the moment. They are literally kicking out Pakistani actors because they are Pakistani. Britain is not the worse place by a long shot.
Good. Why should be be placing bureaucratic barriers in the way of entrepreneurs wanting to set up in the UK, bringing investment and creating jobs?
I'd go further, why should we get in the way of anyone who can make a net contribution to British society, whether by bringing investment, earning a high salary or filling a genuine skills gap - no matter from which country they originate?
Thud doesn't see them as entrepreneurs but as " brown people ". It's a recurrent theme in his thinking.
One of the SubMayrine's talents seems to be the ability to induce amnesia about her various career illiberalities. This inspired me to remember the immigration checks at tube and train stations. Are they still going on?
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
Disagree, think about the demographics.
Labour voters age and become Conservative voters. Remainers will become Leavers (Rejoiners will become Remain-outers?) in the same way, and the status quo advantage will have passed to the Eurosceptic side.
That happens with some things but you also get a fair bit of stickiness where an entire cohort picks a side when they're young and that advantage sticks. This is a basic worldview issue: Educated young people who have grown up with free movement just don't see things the way older people do.
Until they lose their jobs - and have to train their replacments from a lower-income country.
Which does happen, both here and in America: here is your redundancy notice and you must spend the time training your outsourced replacements.
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
Erm, neither Poland nor the Czech Republic use the Euro.
Someone else yesterday predicted Hungary leaving the Euro next year, which would be quite an achievement given they haven't joined yet!
215 OH 230 NC 236 NV 266 FL 270 NH <- New Hampshire to win 286 MI 433 MD(*) 521 CA 538 DC
Without Nevada, Trump requires Michigan to win - in my view IF he has won New Hampshire he has most likely taken at least one of the Great Lake states too.
* Nate Silver has Maryland as the state before DC.
DC is unequivocally the safest ECV votes for Clinton - any model that doesn't show this is simply wrong.</p>
Good. Why should be be placing bureaucratic barriers in the way of entrepreneurs wanting to set up in the UK, bringing investment and creating jobs?
I'd go further, why should we get in the way of anyone who can make a net contribution to British society, whether by bringing investment, earning a high salary or filling a genuine skills gap - no matter from which country they originate?
Thud doesn't see them as entrepreneurs but as " brown people ". It's a recurrent theme in his thinking.
Since the one consistent factor in your various political positions (insofar as any of them are authentic) is to have had racists (Berlusconi, Farage, Trump etc) in your political wank bank, that is the pot calling the kettle black. Or brown.
PB, the place keen to get to the bottom of a political issue.
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? http://bit.ly/2f6K7XR "“You don’t see what you are doing with the Andrex which, not to put too fine a point on it, is spreading it around like a toddler and his new paint box."
PB, the place keen to get to the bottom of a political issue.
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? http://bit.ly/2f6K7XR "“You don’t see what you are doing with the Andrex which, not to put too fine a point on it, is spreading it around like a toddler and his new paint box."
Well they'll run the country like Venezuala - so the point is moot - there won't be any supply. We'll have to use sponges.
King Cole, I got one that was pretty well-folded and it seemed slightly fiddlier to get in my wallet [not a major thing for me, of course, but if someone had a stack of them it might be somewhat irksome].
Daft bloody thing, and too damned small. It's real security measure is looking so rubbish no self-respecting counterfeiter would copy it.
Elected judges in America are under huge pressure to make rulings that are counter to the law but would hepl them at the ballot box. Their impartiality is compromised.
Yes, judges standing for re-election is a problem. The way to elect judges would be for a single term only, after which they would have to sit out the next term.
I understand your reasoning, but there are severe personal career difficulties in asking people to sign up for a single term and then go away. What do they do next? As with former MPs, who have no obvious next move when they lose, they may well be in middle age and unable easily to take up a new profession. (I was a translator as well, which saved my bacon)
I think the British system of independent judges expected to rule according to the law and the facts works pretty well in practice, however annoyed we get when an individual decision goes against what we want, and we should oppose attempts to change it to a more populist approach.
PB, the place keen to get to the bottom of a political issue.
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? http://bit.ly/2f6K7XR "“You don’t see what you are doing with the Andrex which, not to put too fine a point on it, is spreading it around like a toddler and his new paint box."
The problem is that when we do rejoin, the EU will have developed not necessarily to our advantage.
When? We are never going to rejoin.
Us rejoining the EU now is as likely as Canada joining the USA or Japan joining China.
To rejoin after Brexit would require the UK to join the eurozone and Schengen, the UK may eventually join EFTA, which it was a member of before it joined the EU but I cannot see it joining the EU again once Article 50 has been invoked and the terms of departure agreed
It would not require Schengen. The treaties explicitly recognise the CTA. It would take a new Treaty - which requires the agreement of Ireland - to derecognise the CTA.
Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.
I actually like its design and more blueish, rather than greenish appearance as well as its new safety features, but why oh why did it have to be so small, which inevitably diminishes its value psychologically.
I understand your reasoning, but there are severe personal career difficulties in asking people to sign up for a single term and then go away. What do they do next? As with former MPs, who have no obvious next move when they lose, they may well be in middle age and unable easily to take up a new profession. (I was a translator as well, which saved my bacon)
Got my first new fiver. Absolutely rubbish. Small, feels like Monopoly money. Humbug. Whoever thought it was a good idea is a jester.
I actually like its design and more blueish, rather than greenish appearance as well as its new safety features, but why oh why did it have to be so small, which inevitably diminishes its value psychologically.
It has shrunk 15% in line with its post Brexit value.
PB, the place keen to get to the bottom of a political issue.
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? http://bit.ly/2f6K7XR "“You don’t see what you are doing with the Andrex which, not to put too fine a point on it, is spreading it around like a toddler and his new paint box."
Everybody should have his own bum-gun.
I have no idea what one is and dare not attempt to google it – a discrete explanation perhaps?
Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)
The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.
FL 245 NC 260 NV 266 NH 270 MI 315 CA 507 MD 535 DC 538
Better play my cards, this is how I had it yesterday. So I agree on the state order.
I think Arizona falls before Georgia because of the latino share of the vote. Apperently the biggest increase in latino votes is in Arizona. Also I expect Black share to be down, and more resistance amongst white voters to clinton in GA then Arizona.
Just when I thought things couldn't get any weirder - the two Podesta brothers are being associated with/bear a strong resemblance to two suspects in Madeleine McMcann disappearance. It's all over Twitter.
No surprise to see some on the right calling for "democratic" oversight of judges because a court decision has been handed down that they do not like. The far left believes in this too. Just another case of the two wings circling to join each other.
Yes. The last 'serious' person I heard call for an elected judiciary was Tony Benn.
There is a lot of talk about not giving our negotiating strategy with the EU27 away in advance. In India we are doing the opposite. The message is "Please, Please, Please do a deal with us. Any deal. Please." It's no surprise, of course. We do need a deal a whole lot more than the Indians do. So, if we are to get one, it will be pretty much on their terms. See Iceland and China.
Don't be ridiculous. You're becoming like a headless chicken. A trade deal with India of peripheral importance and India doesn't really want any trade deals given their addiction to tariff income.
Yes, as I say a trade deal with India would be on their terms. Watching Liam Fox and Theresa May walking together down the aeroplane steps to the tarmac in New Delhi, and reading and watching the coverage of the trip, does not indicate they see anything peripheral about a deal.
Just when I thought things couldn't get any weirder - the two Podesta brothers are being associated with/bear a strong resemblance to two suspects in Madeleine McMcann disappearance. It's all over Twitter.
How dull life will be once 2016 is over.
What's weirder is that Trump looks like a serial sexual assaulter. It's all over conventional mainstream news sources and Twitter.
Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)
The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.
PB, the place keen to get to the bottom of a political issue.
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? http://bit.ly/2f6K7XR "“You don’t see what you are doing with the Andrex which, not to put too fine a point on it, is spreading it around like a toddler and his new paint box."
Everybody should have his own bum-gun.
Perhaps we should be more Dutch and have inspection areas as well.
Of course Farage may be suddenly remember the UK element of UKIP. Here's hoping!
Doesn't want to legitimise a fantasy vote, more like.
There will never be Indyref 2
I believe if you put a wee bit of paper with 'There will never be Indyref 2' written on it under your pillow every night, that will definitely stop it happening!
Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)
The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.
How does the "SPIN Clinton 330-up spread" work?
The result goes as expected, you win ~ 20 times your stake.
Hillary wins Texas, you'll need to call the bank manager in the morning.
I understand your reasoning, but there are severe personal career difficulties in asking people to sign up for a single term and then go away. What do they do next? As with former MPs, who have no obvious next move when they lose, they may well be in middle age and unable easily to take up a new profession. (I was a translator as well, which saved my bacon)
What if you made the single term like 20 years?
That would help, but not entirely. Say you're elected as judge at age 33, what do you do when you're 53? Also, as we see in the USA, an appointment to the Supreme Court casts a very long shadow, and a Judge Trump elected in a spasm of popular anger in 2017 might be still influencing affairs in 2037, long after everyone had forgotten why they elected him.
I concede that I'm motivated by a certain reservation about the infallible power of judgment of the electorate at any particular moment. Normally, a bad decision can be reversed in a few years by another election. By lengthening the term of office you reduce the career problem that I mentioned but increase the impact of spasmodic decisions.
PB, the place keen to get to the bottom of a political issue.
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? http://bit.ly/2f6K7XR "“You don’t see what you are doing with the Andrex which, not to put too fine a point on it, is spreading it around like a toddler and his new paint box."
It is made up at the final ECV figure less 330, or 0, whichever is the higher.
So if you sell at the current 20.5 you'd lose just half a point if she gets 351. You'd win 10.5 points if she gets 340 ECVs. You'd win a fixed 20.5 points if she gets 330 or any lower number.
Conversely, your potential losses if she does better than 350 are uncapped.
Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)
The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.
Wow, at its mid-point, Sporting's spread for Hillary is more than 30 ECVs ahead of 538.com..... there's brave! That said, America is still asleep, in the main. Maybe not in Maine, but in the main.
Comments
Clinton ....... 319 (unchanged)
Trump ........ 218 (unchanged)
Your turnout figure is slightly fency......I'm on the band up to 62%....
Clinton 43.2 .. Trump 48.0
Note - Trump winning 18-34's .. Gender Divide by 9.9 points and 50% more Hispanics than Romney ..
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/10bn-china-deal-collapses-over-hostile-scots-outcry-1-4279743
One factor we do not have is that on much of the continent, open borders mean Europe now seems more like a single country in that you can drive from (say) Germany through Poland to Czechia and buy beer using the same banknotes.
I'm holding both my spread bets to term.
"Well, fluc to you Scots too!!!!"
(c) Benny Hill, 1975
In the US there are very few people given permanent appointments to any high profile public role, as opposed to in the UK where we have the senior civil service - everyone is either appointed to serve a politician or elected by the public. This leads to a bunch of unintended consequences, such as the political interference in the electoral process. Unfortunately, like most of these things, it suffers from great inertia and is difficult to change.
In the UK we have not had a problem with activist judges, and they're generally understood to be impartial. If the judges rule against the PM in the Art. 50 case, then a single line Bill through Parliament will suffice to allow the referendum result to be implemented. If I were the PM I'd do it the day before the Christmas recess, with the warning that no-one was going home until it passed!
http://www.nbc-2.com/story/33640852/floridas-early-voting-wrapping-up-on-sunday
But I suppose that doesn't matter to most on this website.
But it's undermined respect for the system.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article112958953.html
I also subscribe to the Shy Trump Theory. I reckon most folks would rather show strangers their internet browsing history than admit to voting Trump, especially amongst the independents.
I still think Clinton wins - but I'm in the "only just" camp. Like I was with Remain on the day before....I could be wrong.
https://twitter.com/leomiklasz/status/795564655435481088
I go along with Jack's arse with the exception of Ohio, which I think will go Trump.
@Pulpstar, if turnout is high I think that will help Clinton. Demographics are trending away from the Republicans. Feet on the ground, most of those voting Trump are those that always vote Republican. Low propensity voters will largely break for the Democrats.
Interestingly it matches @JackW projection
62 MT
77 AK
148 TX
175 AZ
197 GA
-------------- @JackW projection
215 OH
230 NC
236 NV
266 FL
270 NH <- New Hampshire to win
286 MI
433 MD(*)
521 CA
538 DC
Without Nevada, Trump requires Michigan to win - in my view IF he has won New Hampshire he has most likely taken at least one of the Great Lake states too.
* Nate Silver has Maryland as the state before DC.
DC is unequivocally the safest ECV votes for Clinton - any model that doesn't show this is simply wrong.
The vote this Sunday will be much smaller than a normal day anyway. It was in 2012 and 2008. It isn't going to change the AA numbers much, possibly the Hispanic numbers though.
"In key respects middle income families with children now more closely resemble poor families than in the past. Half are now renters rather than owner occupiers and, while poorer families have become less reliant on benefits as employment has risen, middle- income households with children now get 30% of their income from benefits and tax credits, up from 22% 20 years ago."
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8371
I'd go further, why should we get in the way of anyone who can make a net contribution to British society, whether by bringing investment, earning a high salary or filling a genuine skills gap - no matter from which country they originate?
One of the SubMayrine's talents seems to be the ability to induce amnesia about her various career illiberalities. This inspired me to remember the immigration checks at tube and train stations. Are they still going on?
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/795568982551982080
Someone else yesterday predicted Hungary leaving the Euro next year, which would be quite an achievement given they haven't joined yet!
EU <> Eurozone
Hmm, either hyperbole, or Wolmar appears never to have been Potty trained.
PoliticsHome ✔ @politicshome
Will next Labour manifesto include pledge to ban toilet paper? http://bit.ly/2f6K7XR
"“You don’t see what you are doing with the Andrex which, not to put too fine a point on it, is spreading it around like a toddler and his new paint box."
MT 63
TX 151
AK 154
GA 179
AZ 191
-------------- @JackW projection
OH 215
FL 245
NC 260
NV 266
NH 270
MI 315
CA 507
MD 535
DC 538
Daft bloody thing, and too damned small. It's real security measure is looking so rubbish no self-respecting counterfeiter would copy it.
I understand your reasoning, but there are severe personal career difficulties in asking people to sign up for a single term and then go away. What do they do next? As with former MPs, who have no obvious next move when they lose, they may well be in middle age and unable easily to take up a new profession. (I was a translator as well, which saved my bacon)
I think the British system of independent judges expected to rule according to the law and the facts works pretty well in practice, however annoyed we get when an individual decision goes against what we want, and we should oppose attempts to change it to a more populist approach.
It's just every other aspect that's rubbish
Mr. Meeks, if it's a Labour policy, surely every man should have a bowel-owl?
Clinton up to 322-332 (Spreadex much lower at 308-323)
The SPIN Clinton 330-up spread is now up to 20.5-26.5. That's a Sell according to all three of the models I've been tracking (538, NYT and HuffPost). But DYOR: you'd lose your shirt if Hillary somehow managed to nick Texas.
So that leaves big guns Kezia, Willie or Fluffy.
Of course Farage may be suddenly remember the UK element of UKIP. Here's hoping!
Yes and no. America has 94 million adults who are not in the work force, or seeking employment.
How dull life will be once 2016 is over.
There will never be Indyref 2
Clinton 283 ..Trump 192 .. Toss-Up 63
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-race
Clinton 40.7 .. Trump 43.1
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
Hillary wins Texas, you'll need to call the bank manager in the morning.
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/795579141928185856
I concede that I'm motivated by a certain reservation about the infallible power of judgment of the electorate at any particular moment. Normally, a bad decision can be reversed in a few years by another election. By lengthening the term of office you reduce the career problem that I mentioned but increase the impact of spasmodic decisions.
So if you sell at the current 20.5 you'd lose just half a point if she gets 351. You'd win 10.5 points if she gets 340 ECVs. You'd win a fixed 20.5 points if she gets 330 or any lower number.
Conversely, your potential losses if she does better than 350 are uncapped.