politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial
One of the fun things about the final few days of any election campaign, be it a US Presidential race or a UK general election is seeing where the leaders/candidates are spending the final few days of the campaign as it feels you glean where the battleground states are based on the candidate’s private polling which in turn gives you an indication of the final result.
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A good timeline of the vote here
http://news.sky.com/story/us-election-2016-follow-the-action-as-results-come-in-10623432
Oh and 1st0 -
Second, like Clinton?
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It's a fun story and the character fits but I'd be a bit skeptical. If Conway wanted him to run, and the polling showed it was hopeless, that fully explains why she'd hide it without assuming Trump won't take the bad news. And I don't think there's any evidence that the current dispute is triggered by him not liking the numbers. Finally on campaigning in weird places, even if he didn't have his own polling he'd have public polling, so I think it goes back to the original Trump conundrum: He's either a tactical genius or a guy hitting buttons at random.0
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Morning all.
All this from a single tweet that may or may not be wholly accurate. – Brave…
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That's pretty canny TSE. Or at least I hope so.
Certainly that would be consistent with his childish lying "alpha male" bravado.0 -
Okay, so if we can't glean anything from where Trump is going to in the last few days, what about Clinton?0
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I think it tells us more about Conway than Trump: if I have paid for research polling, why would I want one of the primary numbers hidden from me? Even if you judge your client a narcissist, then it is doubly important to provide him with a reality check that is going to perhaps keep his vanity in check and stop him ending up beaten to a pulp.
If you received a polling report you'd commissioned, then found out crucial elements hadn't been included on the whim of that pollster - would you pay for it?0 -
I don't see anything too odd about his itinerary. Other than NY for his victory party are they not all in the toss up column on RCP? That list has of course got surprisingly long since the polls have tightened and it may be that some are more obvious targets than others but I think he is still trying to find a way to 270.0
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Probably better to look at Hill+Bill+Barack+Michelle in total, since the last three are all better speakers than her.tlg86 said:Okay, so if we can't glean anything from where Trump is going to in the last few days, what about Clinton?
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/0 -
Morning all. Go away for a couple of days and miss a big court ruling, another MP resigning and the US market moving sharply to Trump then back to Hillary. Now for one of the most manic weeks in politics for years!
On topic, it's entirely possible that people are hiding stuff from Donald - he most probably does react like a CEO rather than a politician when people come to him with problems rather than solutions.0 -
Here we are, barely 48 hours from polling, and still talking about Donald Trump finding a way to 270.... FFS - Donald Trump? A man whose skin tone and hair scream out "PHONEY!!!!" - how can this be?DavidL said:I don't see anything too odd about his itinerary. Other than NY for his victory party are they not all in the toss up column on RCP? That list has of course got surprisingly long since the polls have tightened and it may be that some are more obvious targets than others but I think he is still trying to find a way to 270.
And then you see his opponent is Hillary Clinton. And his still being a viable candidate makes some grim sense.0 -
id also argue they are targetting states with very little EV, whereas they previously targetted hugh EV states in the last week for obvious reasonsedmundintokyo said:
Probably better to look at Hill+Bill+Barack+Michelle in total, since the last three are all better speakers than her.tlg86 said:Okay, so if we can't glean anything from where Trump is going to in the last few days, what about Clinton?
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/0 -
Single market access is pretty important for those wwc Sunderland car workers. It seems like a sensible position for Labour to me.0
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Iowa can probably be called for Trump, now that the Des Moines Register has him ahead 46/39%. Clinton actually leads by 20% among early voters, which shows that one must view early voting numbers with caution.0
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Heil Trump...doesn't quite have the same resonance for Ken.0
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Except for Sanders in Arizona and Nevada, the Clinton campaign doesn't look like they're heading west of the Mississippi at all. You get the sense that it's hammering down the firewalls and securing - in theory - the 270+ EV count.619 said:
id also argue they are targetting states with very little EV, whereas they previously targetted hugh EV states in the last week for obvious reasonsedmundintokyo said:
Probably better to look at Hill+Bill+Barack+Michelle in total, since the last three are all better speakers than her.tlg86 said:Okay, so if we can't glean anything from where Trump is going to in the last few days, what about Clinton?
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
With the Trump campaign, well, there seems to be a lot of flags being run up a lot of flagpoles.0 -
Jezza is indicating that if we don't press for full access to the single market the Labour party will vote against Article 50. So if you were an EU negotiator, you would ...
(1) Immediately offer it. We wouldn't want the Labour party having to vote against Article 50.
(2) Surely there is no (2).
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Arizona isn't on their schedule. I suspect it's either in the 2 or 3am sections though.Moses_ said:A good timeline of the vote here
http://news.sky.com/story/us-election-2016-follow-the-action-as-results-come-in-10623432
Oh and 1st0 -
I think that one has to allow for whether the state allows early voting and the schedule of it.619 said:
id also argue they are targetting states with very little EV, whereas they previously targetted hugh EV states in the last week for obvious reasonsedmundintokyo said:
Probably better to look at Hill+Bill+Barack+Michelle in total, since the last three are all better speakers than her.tlg86 said:Okay, so if we can't glean anything from where Trump is going to in the last few days, what about Clinton?
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania do not have early voting, so having final rallies in these places is arguably wise:
https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/0 -
It is also quicker to fly from Michigan to Pennsylvania than it is from Arizona to Pennsylvania. Taking in the far West means fewer rallies.Kevin_McCandless said:
Except for Sanders in Arizona and Nevada, the Clinton campaign doesn't look like they're heading west of the Mississippi at all. You get the sense that it's hammering down the firewalls and securing - in theory - the 270+ EV count.619 said:
id also argue they are targetting states with very little EV, whereas they previously targetted hugh EV states in the last week for obvious reasonsedmundintokyo said:
Probably better to look at Hill+Bill+Barack+Michelle in total, since the last three are all better speakers than her.tlg86 said:Okay, so if we can't glean anything from where Trump is going to in the last few days, what about Clinton?
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
With the Trump campaign, well, there seems to be a lot of flags being run up a lot of flagpoles.0 -
I suspect that the inside story of the campaign is going to have far more amusing anecdotes than how the candidate deals with polling data.0
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one note of caution on that, they did get the primarues for Trump wrong and the poll has him winning under 35's by plus 5.Sean_F said:Iowa can probably be called for Trump, now that the Des Moines Register has him ahead 46/39%. Clinton actually leads by 20% among early voters, which shows that one must view early voting numbers with caution.
Saying that, i do expect him to wi Iowa0 -
The EU negotiators don't swing into action before Article 50 is triggered.CD13 said:Jezza is indicating that if we don't press for full access to the single market the Labour party will vote against Article 50. So if you were an EU negotiator, you would ...
(1) Immediately offer it. We wouldn't want the Labour party having to vote against Article 50.
(2) Surely there is no (2).0 -
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So take out Jezza, add in the Cons' new fiscal policy and their lurch to the right, the Lab ground game, and of course Br*x*t...and a good Lab performance at an early GE is not out of the question.
Of course you've got to take out Jezza...but he is becoming a less important factor, if still a critical one.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Is there a country in the world without single market access?
If need be, May should go to the country. Say she intends to carry out the referendum result, and that unlike Labour, her promise is not conditional.0 -
Alastair,
"Single market access is pretty important for those wwc Sunderland car workers. It seems like a sensible position for Labour to me."
So you negotiate (according to 'ol bonehead) by saying without that being offered, you'll vote against Article 50 and try to torpedo the UK leaving. If you were Juncker's negotiators, what would you do?
Now if I were a conspiracy theorist ...0 -
Exactly. There are very few countries in the world without access to the single market. It's what kind of access that's important. That's what businesses will be looking for, as well as Brits who now or in the future want to live/work in the EU.MaxPB said:
Single market access can mean anything though.Alistair said:Single market access is pretty important for those wwc Sunderland car workers. It seems like a sensible position for Labour to me.
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You can't take him out.TOPPING said:So take out Jezza, add in the Cons' new fiscal policy and their lurch to the right, the Lab ground game, and of course Br*x*t...and a good Lab performance at an early GE is not out of the question.
Of course you've got to take out Jezza...but he is becoming a less important factor, if still a critical one.
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Mr. CD13, indeed.
The alternative is May agrees to some sort of access, and the EU slaps a £25bn a year price tag on it.
This is simply a mechanism whereby those opposed to what the electorate voted for are trying to stop it happening. Eminently predictable (many here predicted it) and transparently rancid.
Democracy counts when you're on the losing side. It's not a quiz where you get forced to have a second go to see if you can give the 'right' answer.0 -
I expect Iowa, given it's demographic profile, and rural nature, to become a quite firmly Red State.619 said:
one note of caution on that, they did get the primarues for Trump wrong and the poll has him winning under 35's by plus 5.Sean_F said:Iowa can probably be called for Trump, now that the Des Moines Register has him ahead 46/39%. Clinton actually leads by 20% among early voters, which shows that one must view early voting numbers with caution.
Saying that, i do expect him to wi Iowa0 -
but what does she put in the manifesto? She will have to spell out what she means by Brexit, which is what she doesn't want to do. Its not enough to just say 'brexit means brexit'. Any exploration of the issue will result in massive splits within the conservative party.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Is there a country in the world without single market access?
If need be, May should go to the country. Say she intends to carry out the referendum result, and that unlike Labour, her promise is not conditional.
I suspect she is more comfortable with the position that she is currently paints herself as being in - a very open mandate from the British people that gives maximum flexibility in any negotiations.0 -
Surely what is meant is Single Markets membership or at least Customs Union?SouthamObserver said:
Exactly. There are very few countries in the world without access to the single market. It's what kind of access that's important. That's what businesses will be looking for, as well as Brits who now or in the future want to live/work in the EU.MaxPB said:
Single market access can mean anything though.Alistair said:Single market access is pretty important for those wwc Sunderland car workers. It seems like a sensible position for Labour to me.
To my mind being held to EU rules without a say in them, and paying for the privilege is a pretty poor deal.0 -
Corbyn hasn't had his turn yet, or is he too insignificant to incur the title of enemy of bonfire??tlg86 said:0 -
Both of them and their campaigns have told so may lies, America is the loser whomever wins.0
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Mr. H, spell out? No.
I think most people accept doing so (in detail, at least) would be foolish/Cameroonian.
But we see already the wretched situation even in the Commons we'll have. The SNP will vote against, Labour may do so, there are a few Conservatives like Clarke. The vote might not even get through the Commons.0 -
Wow, he cares for the wwc so much:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/0 -
And that's why we voted to Leave...foxinsoxuk said:
Surely what is meant is Single Market.membership or at least Customs Union?SouthamObserver said:
Exactly. There are very few countries in the world without access to the single market. It's what kind of access that's important. That's what businesses will be looking for, as well as Brits who now or in the future want to live/work in the EU.MaxPB said:
Single market access can mean anything though.Alistair said:Single market access is pretty important for those wwc Sunderland car workers. It seems like a sensible position for Labour to me.
To my mind being held to EU rules without a say in them, and paying for the privilege is a pretty poor deal.0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, voting to leave then having the EU determine our trade deals is not something most people will accept.0
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Mr Meeks,
"The EU negotiators don't swing into action before Article 50 is triggered."
Then why the big debate in the HoC? What exactly is the point. Do you really think Mrs May is going to say "If they offer single market access, refuse it outright."?0 -
It is why Brexit means Hard Brexit. Membership with a say in the rules is a different thing entirely.ThreeQuidder said:
And that's why we voted to Leave...foxinsoxuk said:
Surely what is meant is Single Market.membership or at least Customs Union?SouthamObserver said:
Exactly. There are very few countries in the world without access to the single market. It's what kind of access that's important. That's what businesses will be looking for, as well as Brits who now or in the future want to live/work in the EU.MaxPB said:
Single market access can mean anything though.Alistair said:Single market access is pretty important for those wwc Sunderland car workers. It seems like a sensible position for Labour to me.
To my mind being held to EU rules without a say in them, and paying for the privilege is a pretty poor deal.0 -
It is entirely as expected that the debate now centres on what type of relationship we get with the single market. It will of course necessarily be an inferior one to previously.
Put a gun to the heads of 99% of Leavers and they would not be able to give a sovereignty argument beyond what they think the single market is or isn't.0 -
You can't run an election campaign with the slogan "A Government for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is"Morris_Dancer said:Mr. H, spell out? No.
I think most people accept doing so (in detail, at least) would be foolish/Cameroonian.
Every question every day would be "What does Brexit look like"
It would be carnage0 -
Which suggests OP may be wrong to infer anything at all from Trump allegedly not paying his pollster.nunu said:Wow, he cares for the wwc so much:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/0 -
I am beginning to wonder if Tezza will deliver Brexit.
If she wanted to thwart it, what might she do?
Put the 3 most incompetent ministers in charge of it? Check
Fight a losing legal battle? Check
Appeal? Check
Appeal to the ECJ is next on the list...0 -
Surely the Betfair handicap markets on Trump are excellent value, 1.83 on Trump plus 99.5 for example?
And Trump 4.6 is excellent value too for the main race?0 -
A lot of politicians say they've been influenced by their faith but as a Catholic, I can definitively see that with Tim Kaine. I watch him on C-Span and his stump speeches are like the post-Vatican II homilies given by the priests in my childhood. They're warm and friendly and heartfelt. They always include an actually funny anecdote, a story out of his personal experience and a real rapport with the crowd. In short, they're great, except I forget them the second I turn to something else.
So, yeah. Tim Kaine is the guy I'd pick if I wanted someone to say Mass. I don't know if he's the guy you want trying to close out the deal in Florida.0 -
Mr. P, it's almost as if May has a negotiation to conduct, rather than a wish list for her fairy godmother to compile.
This is a transparent attempt to reverse the referendum result by trying to paint May into a corner. It may work, of course, but it's still repugnant.0 -
I think an A50 Bill would clear the Commons, but the Lords would make endless mischief.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. H, spell out? No.
I think most people accept doing so (in detail, at least) would be foolish/Cameroonian.
But we see already the wretched situation even in the Commons we'll have. The SNP will vote against, Labour may do so, there are a few Conservatives like Clarke. The vote might not even get through the Commons.
One problem is, suppose that the Bill is only passed upon certain conditions being agreed by the EU. A50 is invoked. The conditions aren't agreed, but A50 is irrevocable. So, we're out anyway.
That's why any vote has to be a simple Yes or No.0 -
He speaks fluent Spanish so that's why he's there I guess.Kevin_McCandless said:A lot of politicians say they've been influenced by their faith but as a Catholic, I can definitively see that with Tim Kaine. I watch him on C-Span and his stump speeches are like the post-Vatican II homilies given by the priests in my childhood. They're warm and friendly and heartfelt. They always include an actually funny anecdote, a story out of his personal experience and a real rapport with the crowd. In short, they're great, except I forget them the second I turn to something else.
So, yeah. Tim Kaine is the guy I'd pick if I wanted someone to say Mass. I don't know if he's the guy you want trying to close out the deal in Florida.0 -
Frankly, it depends on what the alternative is. If we lose more in tax take as a result of hard Brexit than the amount we would pay in contributions to remain part of the SM, then the contributions might be worth it (see Norway).foxinsoxuk said:
Surely what is meant is Single Markets membership or at least Customs Union?SouthamObserver said:
Exactly. There are very few countries in the world without access to the single market. It's what kind of access that's important. That's what businesses will be looking for, as well as Brits who now or in the future want to live/work in the EU.MaxPB said:
Single market access can mean anything though.Alistair said:Single market access is pretty important for those wwc Sunderland car workers. It seems like a sensible position for Labour to me.
To my mind being held to EU rules without a say in them, and paying for the privilege is a pretty poor deal.
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For Labour.Scott_P said:
You can't run an election campaign with the slogan "A Government for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is"Morris_Dancer said:Mr. H, spell out? No.
I think most people accept doing so (in detail, at least) would be foolish/Cameroonian.
Every question every day would be "What does Brexit look like"
It would be carnage0 -
By 2am on Tuesday we'll know...edmundintokyo said:It's a fun story and the character fits but I'd be a bit skeptical. If Conway wanted him to run, and the polling showed it was hopeless, that fully explains why she'd hide it without assuming Trump won't take the bad news. And I don't think there's any evidence that the current dispute is triggered by him not liking the numbers. Finally on campaigning in weird places, even if he didn't have his own polling he'd have public polling, so I think it goes back to the original Trump conundrum: He's either a tactical genius or a guy hitting buttons at random.
Although, as anyone who's played the Dead or Alive series knows, sometimes random button mashing works.0 -
The point is that according to the High Court it is a legal requirement.CD13 said:Mr Meeks,
"The EU negotiators don't swing into action before Article 50 is triggered."
Then why the big debate in the HoC? What exactly is the point. Do you really think Mrs May is going to say "If they offer single market access, refuse it outright."?
As for what Jeremy Corbyn thinks he's doing, I have no idea.0 -
Labour's candidate in Richmond Park, encouraged Jezza to step down last June.
https://twitter.com/wolmarforlondon/status/747820784589094912
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Obviously, she will promise "to negotiate the best deal for Britain". Against people who have their own agenda, but primarily, who don't want to lose our market. It's not as if the EU hold all the cards. But until we see whether the EU wants to play silly buggers or not, there is nothing else to be said.nielh said:
but what does she put in the manifesto? She will have to spell out what she means by Brexit, which is what she doesn't want to do. Its not enough to just say 'brexit means brexit'. Any exploration of the issue will result in massive splits within the conservative party.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Is there a country in the world without single market access?
If need be, May should go to the country. Say she intends to carry out the referendum result, and that unlike Labour, her promise is not conditional.
I suspect she is more comfortable with the position that she is currently paints herself as being in - a very open mandate from the British people that gives maximum flexibility in any negotiations.
And if people don't like the deal she ends up negotiating, she will remind them they can vote her out of power. Which is why in practice, she won't go to the country until we have negotiated - and delivered - our exit from the EU.0 -
Yes, Trump may be an equal opportunity bill non-payer.DecrepitJohnL said:
Which suggests OP may be wrong to infer anything at all from Trump allegedly not paying his pollster.nunu said:Wow, he cares for the wwc so much:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/0 -
Was speaking with a senior Brexit department source the other day who thinks that while Lords might be more tricky but they might reflect who would win in a Peers vs the People battle and what the consequences might be when they lose.Sean_F said:
I think an A50 Bill would clear the Commons, but the Lords would make endless mischief.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. H, spell out? No.
I think most people accept doing so (in detail, at least) would be foolish/Cameroonian.
But we see already the wretched situation even in the Commons we'll have. The SNP will vote against, Labour may do so, there are a few Conservatives like Clarke. The vote might not even get through the Commons.
One problem is, suppose that the Bill is only passed upon certain conditions being agreed by the EU. A50 is invoked. The conditions aren't agreed, but A50 is irrevocable. So, we're out anyway.
That's why any vote has to be a simple Yes or No.0 -
Backwards not forwards, but she might ask a silly question.HaroldO said:
He is no leader.0 -
12 posts in and PB is straight back to arguing the same Brexit points by the same Remainers over and over and over again. Every thread is now simply becoming a parody of the previous thread but each just becomes even more bitter, twisted and entrenched. I really don't see the point anymore.......0
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Meanwhile, anyone remember the secret Chinese trade deal that Nicola signed, which the Zoomers claimed wasn't a deal?
Scottish ministers admitted last night that a controversial £10bn trade deal with China has collapsed after an insider told The Sunday Times the plug was pulled months ago by a Chinese consortium that described the deal as a “shambles”.
It has emerged that state-backed companies SinoFortone and China Railway No 3 Engineering Group (CR3) cancelled the accord in an email to the Scottish government on August 15, less than five months after it was signed. The disclosure will embarrass Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, who personally sealed the deal — without fanfare — at Bute House last March.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/chinese-fury-at-shambolic-scots-khgb8twlw0 -
Perhaps the usual rule regarding political criticism was being applied in this case?dr_spyn said:
Corbyn hasn't had his turn yet, or is he too insignificant to incur the title of enemy of bonfire??tlg86 said:
Ripping the piss out of a Right-wing figure, performing personalised character assassination on them, burning them in effigy, wishing cancer upon them and their children, and throwing a street party and singing "ding dong the wicked witch is dead" when they kick the bucket is satire, and all just a bit of harmless fun, innit?
Doing the equivalent to a left-wing figure is all sorts of -isms, -phobias, unjustified abuse and a reportable hate crime (which the policy are clearly -ist and -phobic if they don't prosecute.)
Well, that and Corbyn is indeed too insignificant to be worth consigning unto the purifying flames.0 -
I don't have much faith in polls any more but I'd like to see a survey of how the public view the latest developments in the Brexit saga0
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But their pain still brings untold joy. It's like watching someone else's three year old having a screaming, writhing tantrum in a supermarket and knocking over a giant pyramid of baked bean tins.....Moses_ said:12 posts in and PB is straight back to arguing the same Brexit points by the same Remainers over and over and over again. Every thread is now simply becoming a parody of the previous thread but each just becomes even more bitter, twisted and entrenched. I really don't see the point anymore.......
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I didn't see a lot of news yesterday, but I did catch Corbyn and his really arrogant, pompous aide bleating about being harassed by a Sky News journo who had the gall to ask him a question about his policy. Utterly pathetic.
I think the US has a pretty poor current crop of choices for Leader of the country. We're not far behind.0 -
I am sure Sean will calm down eventually...MarqueeMark said:It's like watching someone else's three year old having a screaming, writhing tantrum in a supermarket and knocking over a giant pyramid of baked bean tins.....
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Well, who'd have guessed? Looks like the Labour Party has found something else to fight a leadership vs PLP pitched battle over?
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/795037602030243841
https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/795037252644720640
All very helpful for Theresa. With enemies like these, who needs friends?0 -
Every day in the election campaign she will be asked 'what do you mean by the best deal for Britain?' What does that mean?MarqueeMark said:
Obviously, she will promise "to negotiate the best deal for Britain". Against people who have their own agenda, but primarily, who don't want to lose our market. It's not as if the EU hold all the cards. But until we see whether the EU wants to play silly buggers or not, there is nothing else to be said.nielh said:
but what does she put in the manifesto? She will have to spell out what she means by Brexit, which is what she doesn't want to do. Its not enough to just say 'brexit means brexit'. Any exploration of the issue will result in massive splits within the conservative party.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Is there a country in the world without single market access?
If need be, May should go to the country. Say she intends to carry out the referendum result, and that unlike Labour, her promise is not conditional.
I suspect she is more comfortable with the position that she is currently paints herself as being in - a very open mandate from the British people that gives maximum flexibility in any negotiations.
And if people don't like the deal she ends up negotiating, she will remind them they can vote her out of power. Which is why in practice, she won't go to the country until we have negotiated - and delivered - our exit from the EU.
On the one hand she will be forced in to promises on curbing free movement, and on the other forced in to commitments to maintain the single market, etc. Promises that are not deliverable, fail to meet scrutiny, and in the meantime confidence decreases and labour rise in the polls by virtue of being the only alternative.
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https://twitter.com/cutthelawn/status/795179108175138816TwistedFireStopper said:I didn't see a lot of news yesterday, but I did catch Corbyn and his really arrogant, pompous aide bleating about being harassed by a Sky News journo who had the gall to ask him a question about his policy. Utterly pathetic.
I think the US has a pretty poor current crop of choices for Leader of the country. We're not far behind.0 -
Corbyn makes May look competent.TwistedFireStopper said:I didn't see a lot of news yesterday, but I did catch Corbyn and his really arrogant, pompous aide bleating about being harassed by a Sky News journo who had the gall to ask him a question about his policy. Utterly pathetic.
I think the US has a pretty poor current crop of choices for Leader of the country. We're not far behind.
It is not just the USA led by incompetents.0 -
Dominic Lawson has a nice column in the ST today can't link as it's paywalled.
I don't know why TM can't say that our red lines are WTO conditions but that we would negotiate to get the best deal possible. I mentioned this as a possible statement straight after she took power0 -
And the follow up question "Are you suggesting your opponents would pursue the worst deal for Britain?"nielh said:Every day in the election campaign she will be asked 'what do you mean by the best deal for Britain?' What does that mean?
It wouldn't survive the first day of a GE campaign.
A manifesto with 24 blank pages where the policies should be.
Carnage.0 -
I think we all feel the pain of bitter Leavers whose dreams of the hardest Brexit possible being inflicted on UK voters without any scrutiny or debate are rapidly turning to dust. They know now they may actually have to sell their case. Democracy really sucks, doesn't it?Scott_P said:
Cos Brexit is done and dusted. Nothing left to discuss.Moses_ said:Every thread is now simply becoming a parody of the previous thread but each just becomes even more bitter, twisted and entrenched. I really don't see the point anymore.......
Oh, wait...
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What is "the best deal"?Blue_rog said:Dominic Lawson has a nice column in the ST today can't link as it's paywalled.
I don't know why TM can't say that our red lines are WTO conditions but that we would negotiate to get the best deal possible. I mentioned this as a possible statement straight after she took power
And is it materially worse than what we have now?0 -
And every day, those asking it would be told to fuck off and wait for the outcome.Scott_P said:
You can't run an election campaign with the slogan "A Government for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is"Morris_Dancer said:Mr. H, spell out? No.
I think most people accept doing so (in detail, at least) would be foolish/Cameroonian.
Every question every day would be "What does Brexit look like"
It would be carnage
It is clear those people wanting to run negotiations in a public forum, expecting to criticise what their own side have or have not achieved to date, and what they are prepared to offer the other side, have a) no experience of negotiating beyond trying to get a child to go to bed (with mixed results) and/or b) wish the negotiations to fail. In either case "fuck off" is an appropriate response.0 -
Yep, for the US to have one muppet candidate is not that unusual but to have 2 in the same election...Carter-v-Ford? It wasn't as bad as this on either side. W vs the inventor of the internet wasn't great either but at least you didn't feel both candidates should probably be in jail.MarqueeMark said:
Here we are, barely 48 hours from polling, and still talking about Donald Trump finding a way to 270.... FFS - Donald Trump? A man whose skin tone and hair scream out "PHONEY!!!!" - how can this be?DavidL said:I don't see anything too odd about his itinerary. Other than NY for his victory party are they not all in the toss up column on RCP? That list has of course got surprisingly long since the polls have tightened and it may be that some are more obvious targets than others but I think he is still trying to find a way to 270.
And then you see his opponent is Hillary Clinton. And his still being a viable candidate makes some grim sense.0 -
DeletedDecrepitJohnL said:
Which suggests OP may be wrong to infer anything at all from Trump allegedly not paying his pollster.nunu said:Wow, he cares for the wwc so much:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/0 -
In line with the views expressed by the voters of this country we will seek control of immigration going forward. We also recognise the importance of trade and will seek access to the European market on the best possible terms. Of course, any negotiation involves two parties and we look forward to working with our European partners in the the spirit of constructive engagement.Scott_P said:
And the follow up question "Are you suggesting your opponents would pursue the worst deal for Britain?"nielh said:Every day in the election campaign she will be asked 'what do you mean by the best deal for Britain?' What does that mean?
It wouldn't survive the first day of a GE campaign.
A manifesto with 24 blank pages where the policies should be.
Carnage.
Next question please.0 -
Think you have called this wrong TSE. Study US politics in detail and the polling. It's so close. My latest estimate has it 268 v 268. Florida is very very important but Trump could lose there and take PA. It might all come down to Colorado ... or those split electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska.
He's absolutely right to be hitting Clinton in her old firewall because polling shows she's no longer got it.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-campaign-is-almost-over-and-heres-where-we-stand/
And this re. Clinton's relative problems: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/
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It is extremely boring at present, as you say the same drivel time after time. No pleasure in coming to site at present.Moses_ said:12 posts in and PB is straight back to arguing the same Brexit points by the same Remainers over and over and over again. Every thread is now simply becoming a parody of the previous thread but each just becomes even more bitter, twisted and entrenched. I really don't see the point anymore.......
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Corbyn is equivalent to the tub of lard on HIGNFY.
How the Labour membership voted for him as leader twice is almost beyond comprehension.0 -
Any deal will be worse than we have now or more expensive , or even both worse and more expensive given the donkeys negotiating it.Scott_P said:
What is "the best deal"?Blue_rog said:Dominic Lawson has a nice column in the ST today can't link as it's paywalled.
I don't know why TM can't say that our red lines are WTO conditions but that we would negotiate to get the best deal possible. I mentioned this as a possible statement straight after she took power
And is it materially worse than what we have now?0 -
You want an election campaign in which the PM tells reporters to fuck off every time a reporter asks what her policies are?MarqueeMark said:And every day, those asking it would be told to fuck off and wait for the outcome.
The Brexiteers have completely lost their minds this morning0 -
What are the best possible terms? Will you sacrifice jobs and growth to control immigration from the EU? Will pensioners living in Spain currently have to come home? And so on.Charles said:
In line with the views expressed by the voters of this country we will seek control of immigration going forward. We also recognise the importance of trade and will seek access to the European market on the best possible terms. Of course, any negotiation involves two parties and we look forward to working with our European partners in the the spirit of constructive engagement.Scott_P said:
And the follow up question "Are you suggesting your opponents would pursue the worst deal for Britain?"nielh said:Every day in the election campaign she will be asked 'what do you mean by the best deal for Britain?' What does that mean?
It wouldn't survive the first day of a GE campaign.
A manifesto with 24 blank pages where the policies should be.
Carnage.
Next question please.
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No, I think it's just Corbyn's so useless they suspect he might not burn.Black_Rook said:
Perhaps the usual rule regarding political criticism was being applied in this case?dr_spyn said:
Corbyn hasn't had his turn yet, or is he too insignificant to incur the title of enemy of bonfire??tlg86 said:
Ripping the piss out of a Right-wing figure, performing personalised character assassination on them, burning them in effigy, wishing cancer upon them and their children, and throwing a street party and singing "ding dong the wicked witch is dead" when they kick the bucket is satire, and all just a bit of harmless fun, innit?
Doing the equivalent to a left-wing figure is all sorts of -isms, -phobias, unjustified abuse and a reportable hate crime (which the policy are clearly -ist and -phobic if they don't prosecute.)
Well, that and Corbyn is indeed too insignificant to be worth consigning unto the purifying flames.0 -
Live on Marr - Farage v Gina Miller head to head0
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Their pain brings untold joy. What a charmer you are.MarqueeMark said:
But their pain still brings untold joy. It's like watching someone else's three year old having a screaming, writhing tantrum in a supermarket and knocking over a giant pyramid of baked bean tins.....Moses_ said:12 posts in and PB is straight back to arguing the same Brexit points by the same Remainers over and over and over again. Every thread is now simply becoming a parody of the previous thread but each just becomes even more bitter, twisted and entrenched. I really don't see the point anymore.......
Once Article 50 is invoked and the Remainers' goose is cooked, let's see how joyful you remain then, as the civil war between Brexiters starts in earnest.0 -
Mr. G, as a diversion, I got XCOM 2 the other day for PS4 [I'd planned to wait but for reasons I did not]. Harder than the first game, but still enjoying it a lot. My soldiers seem to be getting killed off quite swiftly (alas, Benjamin "DizzyRascal" Disraeli is dead).
Some jankiness with animations and low frame rates (latter not really an issue for a TBS game). Customisation in both the sense of appearance and gameplay is improved, and there seems to be a stronger story.
I'll review it at some point, but that'll be a while off. Most missions are about the same length as last time, but I had a sort of optional-story mission yesterday that must've been about an hour and a half.0 -
I would have thought that candidates have to continue behaving as if it is neck and neck, and plan their campaign schedule accordingly, whether their polling shows this to be the case or not. What candidate can afford to send the message that their campaign is sinking, before most people have actually voted?0
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Any negotiation involves two parties and I am not in a position to comment on where the EU is prepared to compromise in order to establish a positive long-term cooperation with the United Kingdom. I can pledge to the voters that we will achieve the best possible outcome.SouthamObserver said:
What are the best possible terms? Will you sacrifice jobs and growth to control immigration from the EU? Will pensioners living in Spain currently have to come home? And so on.Charles said:
In line with the views expressed by the voters of this country we will seek control of immigration going forward. We also recognise the importance of trade and will seek access to the European market on the best possible terms. Of course, any negotiation involves two parties and we look forward to working with our European partners in the the spirit of constructive engagement.Scott_P said:
And the follow up question "Are you suggesting your opponents would pursue the worst deal for Britain?"nielh said:Every day in the election campaign she will be asked 'what do you mean by the best deal for Britain?' What does that mean?
It wouldn't survive the first day of a GE campaign.
A manifesto with 24 blank pages where the policies should be.
Carnage.
Next question please.0 -
Don't do it!Moses_ said:I really don't see the point anymore.......
Oh, you meant stop bathing us in the warm light of your wit and wisdom? Oh well, if you insist..0
