Mr. P, the truth is we had the argument. The electorate made a choice.
£350m for the NHS...
Now that the Brexiteers have admitted that was bollocks, it is possible the electorate might want to discuss the implications of their choice and where we go next?
What you wish to do is to frustrate the choice that the voters have made.
They chose something which seems now not to have been on offer, Mr Fear, though the offer was definitely made. Is there a legal term for that sort of thing?
Mr. P, the truth is we had the argument. The electorate made a choice.
£350m for the NHS...
Now that the Brexiteers have admitted that was bollocks, it is possible the electorate might want to discuss the implications of their choice and where we go next?
What you wish to do is to frustrate the choice that the voters have made.
Scott P whole dialogue is not to frustrate but to reject the verdict and remain in the EU and he is absolutely entitled to that view point.
However the vast majority of voters will want to see the verdict respected and for us to leave the EU
So probably unless it's very close we'll know the result around 1am, if Clinton wins convincingly we'll know around 12.30, and if it's a Clinton landslide we'll know when Trump loses Georgia around midnight.
Assuming you are prepared to trust exit polls
And the likelihood is that the States that matter will be too close to call for several hours after the polls close. NC at 12.30 should tell us the answer (if Clinton is winning it) but I would be surprised if it is called for hours after that.
Mr. P, the truth is we had the argument. The electorate made a choice.
£350m for the NHS...
Now that the Brexiteers have admitted that was bollocks, it is possible the electorate might want to discuss the implications of their choice and where we go next?
What you wish to do is to frustrate the choice that the voters have made.
They chose something which seems now not to have been on offer, Mr Fear, though the offer was definitely made. Is there a legal term for that sort of thing?
They chose to Leave. It was a straightforward binary choice,
I can pledge to the voters that we will achieve the best possible outcome.
"Are you saying PM that your opponents in this election would achieve the worst possible outcome? On what basis can you make that claim?"
Carnage
This election is about who you want to lead this country. The team we have put together is wonderful. Mr Corbyn and his team have a track record of [whatever the theme of the day is]. We believe the choice is clear.
May's probably best off not referencing her team. She should keep it to her versus Corbyn. Beyond that comparison the Tories lose their edge very quickly.
She might find a role for Hammond. Otherwise agreed.
You think?
May-v-Corbyn
Hammond-v-McDonnell
Abbot-v-Anyone with a pulse.
Thornberry-v-Anyone even without a pulse.
Griffith-v-anyone who actually believes in defence.
Burgon-v-a tub of lard.
etc etc
I mean, this is a much weaker cabinet than Dave had but jeez....
May towers above Corbyn; Hammond beats McDonnell. Beyond that, the Tories still win, but the standard gets very low very quickly. Best keep them away from the cameras as you can't trust what they will say. Use Boris for internal confidence boosting.
The Tories are unbelievably fortunate that most Labour party members do not need a Labour government or fear a Tory one. If that changes before May calls a general election the political landscape could change very quickly.
Good grief SO, hyperbole much?
Even if every single Labour party members wanted a Labour government it wouldn't make the blindest bit of difference. Labour polling is at its worst for generations - not just because of a few useless leaders, but because the party doesn't represent voters anymore. The problem is the party itself. A special interest group for metropolitans with outdated views for the 90s, let alone the 2010s. The world has moved on from socialism.
I agree. But I struggle to see the Tories representing anyone beyond a few key interest groups too. A competent opposition would be taking this thoroughly mediocre, hopelessly divided government to the cleaners.
We keep hearing this - yet this apparently hopeless Govt is riding high in the polls and coming up with policies to help:
- make prisons safer places - prospective homeowners who might not otherwise ever own a home - lower educational inequality - give a voice to the largest number of voters ever to support anyone/any issue
Dated 2008. Is it possible things might have changed since then? Perhaps as a direct result of this very same 2008 review? Never mind that no illegal conduct is alleged in the highlighted tweet -- just some missing procedure docs.
The Tories are unbelievably fortunate that most Labour party members do not need a Labour government or fear a Tory one.
Always important to remember. I think I read recently that something like 75% of the Labour membership is ABC1. The self-righteous faux Marxists amongst them know that they can use Labour to do what they most enjoy - protesting loudly about injustice and being self-righteous - whilst simultaneously relying on a succession of Tory Governments to keep house prices bubbling along nicely, levy moderate taxes, and otherwise defend their middle class privilege.
The sort of compromise with the electorate needed to start winning again is not merely unnecessary, it runs positively counter to their interests.
So probably unless it's very close we'll know the result around 1am, if Clinton wins convincingly we'll know around 12.30, and if it's a Clinton landslide we'll know when Trump loses Georgia around midnight.
Just disregard this everyone. Only if it's an absolute Clinton shoo-in would we 'know' by 1am. If she takes both Florida and Pennsylvania by big margins then, fine. Otherwise we may very well not know the result until way out west: Colorado. And even then, we may not.
I can pledge to the voters that we will achieve the best possible outcome.
"Are you saying PM that your opponents in this election would achieve the worst possible outcome? On what basis can you make that claim?"
Carnage
This election is about who you want to lead this country. The team we have put together is wonderful. Mr Corbyn and his team have a track record of [whatever the theme of the day is]. We believe the choice is clear.
May's probably best off not referencing her team. She should keep it to her versus Corbyn. Beyond that comparison the Tories lose their edge very quickly.
She might find a role for Hammond. Otherwise agreed.
You think?
May-v-Corbyn
Hammond-v-McDonnell
Abbot-v-Anyone with a pulse.
Thornberry-v-Anyone even without a pulse.
Griffith-v-anyone who actually believes in defence.
Burgon-v-a tub of lard.
etc etc
I mean, this is a much weaker cabinet than Dave had but jeez....
May towers above Corbyn; Hammond beats McDonnell. Beyond that, the Tories still win, but the standard gets very low very quickly. Best keep them away from the cameras as you can't trust what they will say. Use Boris for internal confidence boosting.
The Tories are unbelievably fortunate that most Labour party members do not need a Labour government or fear a Tory one. If that changes before May calls a general election the political landscape could change very quickly.
Good grief SO, hyperbole much?
Even if every single Labour party members wanted a Labour government itcial interest group for metropolitans with outdated views for the 90s, let alone the 2010s. The world has moved on from socialism.
I agree. But I struggle to see the Tories representing anyone beyond a few key interest groups too. A competent opposition would be taking this thoroughly mediocre, hopelessly divided government to the cleaners.
We keep hearing this - yet this apparently hopeless Govt is riding high in the polls and coming up with policies to help:
- make prisons safer places - prospective homeowners who might not otherwise ever own a home - lower educational inequality - give a voice to the largest number of voters ever to support anyone/any issue
Anyone can come up with a policy. The Tories have a huge poll lead because Jeremy Corbyn is leading the Labour party.
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
Mr. Nashe, and was on the winning side in the referendum.
If democracy doesn't work when the likes of Blair, Clegg etc don't agree with the result, then the electorate has a choice: turn to non-democratic means, or put up with not having their vote respected.
Neither of those options are good. And that's why efforts to undermine and reject the referendum result are repugnant.
One of the problems is people, for various reasons, pretending that if what they want doesn't happen the result is undermined, when so long as we leave that is simply untrue. The vote was to leave with no more details. Certain types of leave will be less popular than others, but no version has proven endorsement over the others. Therefore I would personally roll back from saying undermining the result was repugnant, because how does one undermine it? If we leave, it's been respected. If we don't, it hasnt. The details were deliberately left for afterwards no doubt precisely so flexibility and arguments could take p,ace on the precise form, and thus any type of Brexit meets the official demand of the referendum. A version where freedom of movement was kept woukd be very unpopular, but not undermining the actual result, but people woukd say it does.
I think most people accept doing so (in detail, at least) would be foolish/Cameroonian.
You can't run an election campaign with the slogan "A Government for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is"
Every question every day would be "What does Brexit look like"
It would be carnage
And every day, those asking it would be told to fuck off and wait for the outcome.
It is clear those people wanting to run negotiations in a public forum, expecting to criticise what their own side have or have not achieved to date, and what they are prepared to offer the other side, have a) no experience of negotiating beyond trying to get a child to go to bed (with mixed results) and/or b) wish the negotiations to fail. In either case "fuck off" is an appropriate response.
Every day in the election campaign she will be asked 'what do you mean by the best deal for Britain?' What does that mean?
And the follow up question "Are you suggesting your opponents would pursue the worst deal for Britain?"
It wouldn't survive the first day of a GE campaign.
A manifesto with 24 blank pages where the policies should be.
Carnage.
In line with the views expressed by the voters of this country we will seek control of immigration going forward. We also recognise the importance of trade and will seek access to the European market on the best possible terms. Of course, any negotiation involves two parties and we look forward to working with our European partners in the the spirit of constructive engagement.
I can pledge to the voters that we will achieve the best possible outcome.
...
...
May's probably best off not referencing her team. She should keep it to her versus Corbyn. Beyond that comparison the Tories lose their edge very quickly.
She might find a role for Hammond. Otherwise agreed.
You think?
May-v-Corbyn
Hammond-v-McDonnell
Abbot-v-Anyone with a pulse.
Thornberry-v-Anyone even without a pulse.
Griffith-v-anyone who actually believes in defence.
Burgon-v-a tub of lard.
etc etc
I mean, this is a much weaker cabinet than Dave had but jeez....
May towers above Corbyn; Hammond beats McDonnell. Beyond that, the Tories still win, but the standard gets very low very quickly. Best keep them away from the cameras as you can't trust what they will say. Use Boris for internal confidence boosting.
The Tories are unbelievably fortunate that most Labour party members do not need a Labour government or fear a Tory one. If that changes before May calls a general election the political landscape could change very quickly.
Good grief SO, hyperbole much?
Even if every single Labour party members wanted a Labour government itcial interest group for metropolitans with outdated views for the 90s, let alone the 2010s. The world has moved on from socialism.
I agree. But I struggle to see the Tories representing anyone beyond a few key interest groups too. A competent opposition would be taking this thoroughly mediocre, hopelessly divided government to the cleaners.
We keep hearing this - yet this apparently hopeless Govt is riding high in the polls and coming up with policies to help:
- make prisons safer places - prospective homeowners who might not otherwise ever own a home - lower educational inequality - give a voice to the largest number of voters ever to support anyone/any issue
Anyone can come up with a policy. The Tories have a huge poll lead because Jeremy Corbyn is leading the Labour party.
Cannot agree with this.
Tories under Cameron were actually falling back vs Corbyn. At least one poll but Lab above Con since May 2015.
Also, c/f Labour poll leads under Miliband. Several years of them. EICIPM anyone?
Seriously, Labour are being pummelled because they are no longer attractive. May's tanks are all over their lawns.
I can pledge to the voters that we will achieve the best possible outcome.
She might find a role for Hammond. Otherwise agreed.
You think?
May-v-Corbyn
Hammond-v-McDonnell
Abbot-v-Anyone with a pulse.
Thornberry-v-Anyone even without a pulse.
Griffith-v-anyone who actually believes in defence.
Burgon-v-a tub of lard.
etc etc
I mean, this is a much weaker cabinet than Dave had but jeez....
May towers above Corbyn; Hammond beats McDonnell. Beyond that, the Tories still win, but the standard gets very low very quickly. Best keep them away from the cameras as you can't trust what they will say. Use Boris for internal confidence boosting.
The Tories are unbelievably fortunate that most Labour party members do not need a Labour government or fear a Tory one. If that changes before May calls a general election the political landscape could change very quickly.
Good grief SO, hyperbole much?
Even if every single Labour party members wanted a Labour government it wouldn't make the blindest bit of difference. Labour polling is at its worst for generations - not just because of a few useless leaders, but because the party doesn't represent voters anymore. The problem is the party itself. A special interest group for metropolitans with outdated views for the 90s, let alone the 2010s. The world has moved on from socialism.
It is hard to avoid the conclusion that the state of parliamentary labour is a symptom rather than a cause. Labour clearly has a huge problem with the different priorities of its fragmented base,
On almost all the big issues of the day, Labour is unable to reach a consensus position even amongst MPs. Brexit (which affects most parties similarly) is just the start. Do they want to manage capitalism or have a planned economy? An extra runway at Heathrow? New missiles for Trident? Centralism or localism? So often with Labour they simply cannot say - their spokesman recently being unable to give any sort of credible answer when interviewed about his and the labour view on Heathrow was a classic. Corbyn knows what he believes but is often wrong, the so-called moderates struggle to map out any sort of credible prospectus (and on the rare occasions that they try, It has a habit of starting to sound like liberalism)
When I try to answer the $64,000 question 'How can even one person vote for Trump let alone half the US' I always think of Arizona. The most unfamiliar people I've met whose native language is English. The whole crew of 50 went to church every Sunday which was a first but that wasn't it. They had a macho culture which I haven't seen before that wasted hours every day." You want the camera mounted 6" off the ground?" We can hand hold it from a moving vehicle......" What!! and they 'whooped' after every take.......
I lived in Georgia for 5 years, and agree with SO. I feel much more European when in America, something that I did not feel in Australia or NZ when living there. I did not feel so alien in Mexico either.
The closest place culturally that I have found to the USA is amongst the Afrikaaners of South Africa. Now they have got past Apartheid, they are a fascinating bunch. Welcoming to strangers, devoted to their land and its outdoors, with a history of pioneering, guns and the Reformed Church. Lovely people, but culturally quite alien to Europeans.
I was going to mention the Afrikaaners in South Africa as being the only other people who came into that category. I worked with a crew recently which we brought to the Seychelles. They looked like pirates. Thick beards long pony tails huge serrated knives and the first time ever two members of the crew had a physical fight leaving them both badly bloodied.
Mr. P, the truth is we had the argument. The electorate made a choice.
£350m for the NHS...
Now that the Brexiteers have admitted that was bollocks, it is possible the electorate might want to discuss the implications of their choice and where we go next?
I'm still waiting for the higher interest rates that nice Mr Osborne promised me. Was he telling porkies?
Scott P whole dialogue is not to frustrate but to reject the verdict and remain in the EU and he is absolutely entitled to that view point.
Not at all.
I want the Brexiteers to take responsibility for Brexit. Stop whining about the people who didn't want or vote for Brexit.
You won. Suck it up.
Own the result. Explain to voters the consequences of the decision.
I believe you would obtain more balanced conversations if you did not use unnecessary confrontational words like whining and suck it up.
The consequences of the decision for good or ill will only become apparent once serious negotiations take place and this cannot even start until A50 has been served.
The active engagement of some to slow down the process, make it conditional or even seek a second referendum is doing more harm to our commercial interests than any negotiations as it is extending the uncertainty and also making us look indecisive within the EU and thereby reducing our advantages
Mr. kle4, Corbyn's making his/Labour's support for the referendum result conditional. Saying you accept a democratic result but only if X, Y and Z is not an endorsement of democracy. Of course people have preferences, but rejecting the result if one's wishes and reality don't precisely align is not democratic.
Miss Freeman, it's tricky to call because there could be shy voters on both sides (but perhaps especially for Trump. I doubt I'll stay up through the night, but it will be intriguing to see how things pan out.
I suspect Trump has learnt one lesson and missed another from our referendum. He knows the Establishment has never been further from the electorate, but missed that belittling voters (little Englanders/bad hombres) makes them turn out against you.
At the moment there's a chance it really could be that close. I have it 268 v 268 but a few states either way will tip it.
It sounds like there is no chance of Robert Satiacum changing his mind in Washington.
We might end up with a real mess. It's so so close this election. I'm actually really surprised we're not full time on this in thread discussions. It's the most important political job in the world, after all.
There is a material risk that if Hillary gets elected but other damaging stuff gets released by the FBI before the Electoral College meets, there could be a full-scale revolt.
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
Hilary's current polling is better than Obama's at this point and the polling made it look like a slam dunk for Obama. Obama then outperformed his polling considerably.
''p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.''
Oh but the two are linked Ms Freeman. Voters here look across the Atlantic and they see how mass immigration has changed America vastly. They see how if Hillary gets in, it will be changed vastly again. They see that the person who controls immigration, controls power.
At the moment there's a chance it really could be that close. I have it 268 v 268 but a few states either way will tip it.
It sounds like there is no chance of Robert Satiacum changing his mind in Washington.
We might end up with a real mess. It's so so close this election. I'm actually really surprised we're not full time on this in thread discussions. It's the most important political job in the world, after all.
There is a material risk that if Hillary gets elected but other damaging stuff gets released by the FBI before the Electoral College meets, there could be a full-scale revolt.
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
Hilary's current polling is better than Obama's at this point and the polling made it look like a slam dunk for Obama. Obama then outperformed his polling considerably.
It isn't better in key states and she is having big problems getting out the vote, especially amongst African-Americans.
Mr. kle4, Corbyn's making his/Labour's support for the referendum result conditional. Saying you accept a democratic result but only if X, Y and Z is not an endorsement of democracy. Of course people have preferences, but rejecting the result if one's wishes and reality don't precisely align is not democratic.
Miss Freeman, it's tricky to call because there could be shy voters on both sides (but perhaps especially for Trump. I doubt I'll stay up through the night, but it will be intriguing to see how things pan out.
I suspect Trump has learnt one lesson and missed another from our referendum. He knows the Establishment has never been further from the electorate, but missed that belittling voters (little Englanders/bad hombres) makes them turn out against you.
Morris, what's your preferred Brexit? Hard, semi-soft, soft, flaccid? I'm not sure you've said what your preferred relationship with the EU is.
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
To be honest Clinton is going to walk it. I lost interest some time ago and I think the interest will be post Clinton's election and how the US reacts to it
Scott P whole dialogue is not to frustrate but to reject the verdict and remain in the EU and he is absolutely entitled to that view point.
Not at all.
I want the Brexiteers to take responsibility for Brexit. Stop whining about the people who didn't want or vote for Brexit.
You won. Suck it up.
Own the result. Explain to voters the consequences of the decision.
I believe you would obtain more balanced conversations if you did not use unnecessary confrontational words like whining and suck it up.
The consequences of the decision for good or ill will only become apparent once serious negotiations take place and this cannot even start until A50 has been served.
The active engagement of some to slow down the process, make it conditional or even seek a second referendum is doing more harm to our commercial interests than any negotiations as it is extending the uncertainty and also making us look indecisive within the EU and thereby reducing our advantages
Nonsense, the problem is that leave didn't have a common prospectus of what it wanted and people voted accordingly. Motherhood, apple pie and in a few cases jackboots.
At the moment there's a chance it really could be that close. I have it 268 v 268 but a few states either way will tip it.
It sounds like there is no chance of Robert Satiacum changing his mind in Washington.
We might end up with a real mess. It's so so close this election. I'm actually really surprised we're not full time on this in thread discussions. It's the most important political job in the world, after all.
There is a material risk that if Hillary gets elected but other damaging stuff gets released by the FBI before the Electoral College meets, there could be a full-scale revolt.
Everybody's been investigating everything she touches since forever. They're not going to suddenly finally stumble on something serious in December.
A measure of migration control is necessary (that may be fudgable with 'freedom to work' for guaranteed job offers, perhaps exceeding a certain salary).
Beyond that, I'm willing to see how things go. I think there is scope for either staying in the single market or not, depending on what conditions attach.
The most important thing is that we implement the referendum result.
Edited extra bit: and, no, you didn't miss it. I'm fairly open-minded about how things go, beyond the necessity of respecting the result and my strong preference to leave the customs union.
Con History Group How lost ballots almost changed the 1990 Tory leadership election – that would have given Mrs. Thatcher the winning margin she needed: https://t.co/B4itFeJmjn
At the moment there's a chance it really could be that close. I have it 268 v 268 but a few states either way will tip it.
It sounds like there is no chance of Robert Satiacum changing his mind in Washington.
We might end up with a real mess. It's so so close this election. I'm actually really surprised we're not full time on this in thread discussions. It's the most important political job in the world, after all.
There is a material risk that if Hillary gets elected but other damaging stuff gets released by the FBI before the Electoral College meets, there could be a full-scale revolt.
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
Hilary's current polling is better than Obama's at this point and the polling made it look like a slam dunk for Obama. Obama then outperformed his polling considerably.
See Nate Silver's point, though: There are more undecided voters now than then, and the electoral college layout looks less helpful.
I believe you would obtain more balanced conversations if you did not use unnecessary confrontational words like whining and suck it up.
I was just using the language of the Brexiteers. I agree it is unnecessarily confrontational.
That is kind of the point.
I am a Brexiteer but do not use abusive language. Everyone needs to tone down - they can still make their arguments and contribute to a very controversial subject
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
To be honest Clinton is going to walk it. I lost interest some time ago and I think the interest will be post Clinton's election and how the US reacts to it
Your loss of interest explains your belief that Hillary's going to walk it. She's presently in desperate trouble in the African and European American sectors.
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
Agreed - there's nothing about Brexit that won't wait a week.
So back on topic - who is going to win this damned thing? Is it the venal orange bigot that no-one in a sane world would ever admit to voting for? Or the toxic embodiment of machine politics who will end up impeached (at best) that no-one in a sane world would ever admit to voting for?
I guess we just have to trust that the voters are telling the truth to pollsters..... In which case, it's "too close to call". Or else there are a lot of liars out there.
I made good money 4 years ago predicting which states would fall which way. This year? My money stays in my wallet...
Scott P whole dialogue is not to frustrate but to reject the verdict and remain in the EU and he is absolutely entitled to that view point.
Not at all.
I want the Brexiteers to take responsibility for Brexit. Stop whining about the people who didn't want or vote for Brexit.
You won. Suck it up.
Own the result. Explain to voters the consequences of the decision.
I believe you would obtain more balanced conversations if you did not use unnecessary confrontational words like whining and suck it up.
The consequences of the decision for good or ill will only become apparent once serious negotiations take place and this cannot even start until A50 has been served.
The active engagement of some to slow down the process, make it conditional or even seek a second referendum is doing more harm to our commercial interests than any negotiations as it is extending the uncertainty and also making us look indecisive within the EU and thereby reducing our advantages
The language Scott is using is gentle compared to some of the muck thrown the other way.
I have no problem with people clarifying the law: if the government does anything, it should always be in tune with the law. The motives of the people bringing the case is irrelevant.
But imagine if they'd brought the case *after* A50 had been sent? We'd be in a hellish limbo. The EU would have started the timer, and negotiating would be next-to impossible.
At the moment there's a chance it really could be that close. I have it 268 v 268 but a few states either way will tip it.
It sounds like there is no chance of Robert Satiacum changing his mind in Washington.
We might end up with a real mess. It's so so close this election. I'm actually really surprised we're not full time on this in thread discussions. It's the most important political job in the world, after all.
There is a material risk that if Hillary gets elected but other damaging stuff gets released by the FBI before the Electoral College meets, there could be a full-scale revolt.
Everybody's been investigating everything she touches since forever. They're not going to suddenly finally stumble on something serious in December.
Says you. Call my first witness. "Calling Mr Comey...."....
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
To be honest Clinton is going to walk it. I lost interest some time ago and I think the interest will be post Clinton's election and how the US reacts to it
You're loss of interest explains your belief that Hillary's going to walk it. She's in desperate trouble in the African and European American sectors.
I do not like her at all but as the choice is Trump she will win
On topic: As someone with American citizenship and actual knowledge of America, the election is all over the place -
1) Hillary is unpopular. Very. Even among those groups who should be her natural supporters. 2) Trump is extremely unpopular. Even among those groups who should be his natural supporters. Mainly because he insults *everyone* in the end. 3) The polls are giving the edge to Hillary. 4) It comes down to differential turnout. Will Trump energise enough anti-Trumpers to vote Hillary? Will Hillary energise enough Trumpers?
One thing worth thinking about is this - GOTV operations in presidential elections are very valuable. The GOP system has been woeful/ridiculous in the last 2 elections. The Dem one seemed pretty damned good the last 2 times out. Hillary may be many things, but she and her supporters are excellent machine politicians...
So expect a focused, effective GOTV effort from the Democrats. The Republicans by contrast, have a system with a poor recent history - and the war between Trump and the GOP establishment hasn't helped either. Trump's chaotic campaigning system doesn't suggest a sudden turn around...
Off Topic: Milo Vs Clodius. Yup, why did I get a vision of Nick Clegg declaring that the omens are unfavourable for a vote on Article 50?
Mr. Nashe, and was on the winning side in the referendum.
If democracy doesn't work when the likes of Blair, Clegg etc don't agree with the result, then the electorate has a choice: turn to non-democratic means, or put up with not having their vote respected.
Neither of those options are good. And that's why efforts to undermine and reject the referendum result are repugnant.
One of the problems is people, for various reasons, pretending that if what they want doesn't happen the result is undermined, when so long as we leave that is simply untrue. The vote was to leave with no more details. Certain types of leave will be less popular than others, but no version has proven endorsement over the others. Therefore I would personally roll back from saying undermining the result was repugnant, because how does one undermine it? If we leave, it's been respected. If we don't, it hasnt. The details were deliberately left for afterwards no doubt precisely so flexibility and arguments could take p,ace on the precise form, and thus any type of Brexit meets the official demand of the referendum. A version where freedom of movement was kept woukd be very unpopular, but not undermining the actual result, but people woukd say it does.
The Democrat on #Marr hit the nail on the head - he said that when they have a referendum in America, the side advocating the change draws up a proposition - the example he gave was typically about ten pages of detail - and then the proposition is put to a vote, yes or no. He rightly observed that the problems we are having almost all stem from not having any detail or consensus as to what we have actually voted to do, other than the headline.
But imagine if they'd brought the case *after* A50 had been sent? We'd be in a hellish limbo. The EU would have started the timer, and negotiating would be next-to impossible.
I think they'd say the previous notification turned out not to have been in line with the UK's constitutional requirements and stop the negotiations while Britain got its shit together.
Last night we had SeanT whining that others had to shut up. This morning we have had a series of Brexiteers whining that we are still discussing Brexit.
They know they are losing the arguments, so they want to stifle the debate.
Are you describing your tweetbot drivel as 'the debate'?
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
To be honest Clinton is going to walk it. I lost interest some time ago and I think the interest will be post Clinton's election and how the US reacts to it
You're a bold person to claim that. It flies in the face of evidence over the past week. She may well win but no-one now is seriously suggesting she is going to walk it. Her position in some key marginal states, including those which once constituted her 'firewall,' has been growing more precarious by the day. It's knife-edge stuff at the moment.
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
Agreed - there's nothing about Brexit that won't wait a week.
So back on topic - who is going to win this damned thing? Is it the venal orange bigot that no-one in a sane world would ever admit to voting for? Or the toxic embodiment of machine politics who will end up impeached (at best) that no-one in a sane world would ever admit to voting for?
I guess we just have to trust that the voters are telling the truth to pollsters..... In which case, it's "too close to call". Or else there are a lot of liars out there.
I made good money 4 years ago predicting which states would fall which way. This year? My money stays in my wallet...
Agreed. There's certainly potential to lose a lot of money this time. My awful feeling that Trump might just do it is based on hunch around momentum and shy Trumpers but I don't usually like betting based on a hunch.
A measure of migration control is necessary (that may be fudgable with 'freedom to work' for guaranteed job offers, perhaps exceeding a certain salary).
Beyond that, I'm willing to see how things go. I think there is scope for either staying in the single market or not, depending on what conditions attach.
The most important thing is that we implement the referendum result.
Edited extra bit: and, no, you didn't miss it. I'm fairly open-minded about how things go, beyond the necessity of respecting the result and my strong preference to leave the customs union.
At the moment there's a chance it really could be that close. I have it 268 v 268 but a few states either way will tip it.
It sounds like there is no chance of Robert Satiacum changing his mind in Washington.
We might end up with a real mess. It's so so close this election. I'm actually really surprised we're not full time on this in thread discussions. It's the most important political job in the world, after all.
There is a material risk that if Hillary gets elected but other damaging stuff gets released by the FBI before the Electoral College meets, there could be a full-scale revolt.
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
Hilary's current polling is better than Obama's at this point and the polling made it look like a slam dunk for Obama. Obama then outperformed his polling considerably.
See Nate Silver's point, though: There are more undecided voters now than then, and the electoral college layout looks less helpful.
Clinton has a similar lead to Bush in 2000 and 2004, and a slightly bigger lead than Obama in 2012. The Democrats outperformed the polls in 2000 and 2012, but they were spot on in 2004 and 2008.
One big difference to 2012 is that Democrats ran the board in the Senate in 2012, but this doesn't seem likely now.
Edited extra bit: and, no, you didn't miss it. I'm fairly open-minded about how things go, beyond the necessity of respecting the result and my strong preference to leave the customs union.
And this is the point made earlier
Leaving the customs union will piss off half the Leavers
Staying in will piss off the other half.
That's why they are terrified of having the debate about what Brexit means. The uneasy coalition that voted out all thought they were getting different things, and the Brexiteers need to keep stringing as many of them along for as long as possible before they realise how badly they were duped
I'm still waiting for the higher interest rates that nice Mr Osborne promised me. Was he telling porkies?
You got massive inflation. What more do you want?
What massive inflation rate? Just puerile* nonsense. Inflation is 1% CPI and 2% RPI.
*childishly silly and immature
An awful lot of things are about to go up by 15%, which I don't think can be described as insignificant. Fuel is already on the way; food prices will be rising by Christmas. As it happens I am about to commit to replacing my kitchen and the cost of most appliances rises by about 15% for orders placed after 14 November.
There's a lag in exchange rates feeding through to prices, because companies hold stock, hedge their currency exposure, and in the short-term often absorb the hit. There's also a lag before prices feed through to reported CPI and of course the reports are themselves made well in arrears.
Mr. Nashe, and was on the winning side in the referendum.
If democracy doesn't work when the likes of Blair, Clegg etc don't agree with the result, then the electorate has a choice: turn to non-democratic means, or put up with not having their vote respected.
Neither of those options are good. And that's why efforts to undermine and reject the referendum result are repugnant.
One of the problems is people, for various reasons, pretending that if what they want doesn't happen the result is undermined, when so long as we leave that is simply untrue. The vote was to leave with no more details. Certain types of leave will be less popular than others, but no version has proven endorsement over the others. Therefore I would personally roll back from saying undermining the result was repugnant, because how does one undermine it? If we leave, it's been respected. If we don't, it hasnt. The details were deliberately left for afterwards no doubt precisely so flexibility and arguments could take p,ace on the precise form, and thus any type of Brexit meets the official demand of the referendum. A version where freedom of movement was kept woukd be very unpopular, but not undermining the actual result, but people woukd say it does.
The Democrat on #Marr hit the nail on the head - he said that when they have a referendum in America, the side advocating the change draws up a proposition - the example he gave was typically about ten pages of detail - and then the proposition is put to a vote, yes or no. He rightly observed that the problems we are having almost all stem from not having any detail or consensus as to what we have actually voted to do, other than the headline.
Mr. Jessop, I agree that my position is very reasonable
Mr. P, making our own trade deals was a large aspect of the campaign(s) to leave. I'd be surprised if many were surprised or pissed off.
We voted to leave, and we should leave.
Suppose we do, and leave the single market but stay in the customs union. I'd be disappointed, but I'd also respect that. And, at the next election, if a party promised to leave the customs union I could vote for them. What matters is that the power to effect that change would exist, and would be in the electorate's hands (via the General Election).
But imagine if they'd brought the case *after* A50 had been sent? We'd be in a hellish limbo. The EU would have started the timer, and negotiating would be next-to impossible.
I think they'd say the previous notification turned out not to have been in line with the UK's constitutional requirements and stop the negotiations while Britain got its shit together.
Why would they? That just increases the mess and hassle they have to deal with by delaying things, and prevents them from getting on with the things they want to do.
They might also see it as a ploy for extending the period past the two years.
A measure of migration control is necessary (that may be fudgable with 'freedom to work' for guaranteed job offers, perhaps exceeding a certain salary).
Beyond that, I'm willing to see how things go. I think there is scope for either staying in the single market or not, depending on what conditions attach.
The most important thing is that we implement the referendum result.
Edited extra bit: and, no, you didn't miss it. I'm fairly open-minded about how things go, beyond the necessity of respecting the result and my strong preference to leave the customs union.
I'd go with that, along with removing ourselves from the jurisdiction of the ECJ and reducing contribution to an absolute minimum ideally zero
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
To be honest Clinton is going to walk it. I lost interest some time ago and I think the interest will be post Clinton's election and how the US reacts to it
You're loss of interest explains your belief that Hillary's going to walk it. She's in desperate trouble in the African and European American sectors.
I do not like her at all but as the choice is Trump she will win
Well at least be informed about it, for instance Malmesbury's post above yours gives some explanation and, as an American citizen, he's suggesting to you and others that it's close. Which it is.
Malmesbury, my concern about this also revolves around the turnouts in the primaries. I think we may see a high turnout on Tuesday and I don't think that does suit HRC.
I'm also concerned about the relatively poor early voting turnout for her. There's apathy towards her among African-Americans in particular, voters who helped carry key states for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
This is knife-edge stuff. My latest figures suggest 268 v 268 but a few states either way will obviously tip it.
i think Clintons chances are around 70%. She has a much better GOTV than Trump amd he has alienated a lot of demographics. Against that, she is unpopular and there is an anti-establishment mood. However, Trump is such a prick, i cant believe he will get more than WWC and Crazy evangelicals coming out for him
Mr. P, Mr. Watson wants to know what the deal is before it's negotiated. One suspects he's mischief-making, rather than someone who doesn't understand the direction in which time flows.
Also, Cameron is to blame. He forbade any contingency planning in case of a Leave victory, despite the polls being neck-and-neck. It was an active dereliction of duty.
But imagine if they'd brought the case *after* A50 had been sent? We'd be in a hellish limbo. The EU would have started the timer, and negotiating would be next-to impossible.
I think they'd say the previous notification turned out not to have been in line with the UK's constitutional requirements and stop the negotiations while Britain got its shit together.
Why would they? That just increases the mess and hassle they have to deal with by delaying things, and prevents them from getting on with the things they want to do.
They might also see it as a ploy for extending the period past the two years.
The treaty specifically says the notification has to be in line with the leaving state's constitutional procedures. Better to accept that straight away than have an ambiguous situation later where you're waiting for the ECJ to tell you whether the UK has left or not.
As for seeing it as a ploy, other member states all have their own separations of powers, they know that courts sometimes stop governments doing things.
Edited extra bit: and, no, you didn't miss it. I'm fairly open-minded about how things go, beyond the necessity of respecting the result and my strong preference to leave the customs union.
And this is the point made earlier
Leaving the customs union will piss off half the Leavers
Staying in will piss off the other half.
That's why they are terrified of having the debate about what Brexit means. The uneasy coalition that voted out all thought they were getting different things, and the Brexiteers need to keep stringing as many of them along for as long as possible before they realise how badly they were duped
The Leave campaign explicitly said we would leave the customs union, leave the single market, leave the ECJ, end EU contributions and control migration. So where does this confusion come from?
Edited extra bit: and, no, you didn't miss it. I'm fairly open-minded about how things go, beyond the necessity of respecting the result and my strong preference to leave the customs union.
And this is the point made earlier
Leaving the customs union will piss off half the Leavers
Staying in will piss off the other half.
That's why they are terrified of having the debate about what Brexit means. The uneasy coalition that voted out all thought they were getting different things, and the Brexiteers need to keep stringing as many of them along for as long as possible before they realise how badly they were duped
Driving along Kent’s road a week ago and reflecting on those of Essex, I wondered about the effect of leaving the Customs Union. How many of those Hungarian, Polish, Spanish etc lorries will still be coming across the Channel if we do leave the Union. And if they are all going to be customs checked, how will the border staff cope? Same applies in reverse?
Mr. Nashe, and was on the winning side in the referendum.
If democracy doesn't work when the likes of Blair, Clegg etc don't agree with the result, then the electorate has a choice: turn to non-democratic means, or put up with not having their vote respected.
Neither of those options are good. And that's why efforts to undermine and reject the referendum result are repugnant.
One of the problems is people, for various reasons, pretending that if what they want doesn't happen the result is undermined, when so long as we leave that is simply untrue. The vote was to leave with no more details. Certain types of leave will be less popular than others, but no version has proven endorsement over the others. Therefore I would personally roll back from saying undermining the result was repugnant, because how does one undermine it? If we leave, it's been respected. If we don't, it hasnt. The details were deliberately left for afterwards no doubt precisely so flexibility and arguments could take p,ace on the precise form, and thus any type of Brexit meets the official demand of the referendum. A version where freedom of movement was kept woukd be very unpopular, but not undermining the actual result, but people woukd say it does.
The Democrat on #Marr hit the nail on the head - he said that when they have a referendum in America, the side advocating the change draws up a proposition - the example he gave was typically about ten pages of detail - and then the proposition is put to a vote, yes or no. He rightly observed that the problems we are having almost all stem from not having any detail or consensus as to what we have actually voted to do, other than the headline.
Indeed. And, of course, the change was proposed by D Cameron...
''Malmesbury, my concern about this also revolves around the turnouts in the primaries. I think we may see a high turnout on Tuesday and I don't think that does suit HRC.''
I don;t know if anyone else has this experience. My office is solidly Clinton. And when I am there I am solidly Clinton. I go around with a hang dog expression, looking solemn.
Actually, I could n;t give a toss about Clinton and I think from a ''wrecking ball smash the establishment'' point of view one term of Donald Trump might not be the absolute worst thing that has ever happened to the United States of America.Compared, shall we say, with Pearl Harbour. Or Iwo Jima.
Of course I would never say that in office company. Which leads me to conclude that there MUST be a shy Trump vote. And a pretty big one.
The Leave campaign explicitly said we would leave the customs union, leave the single market, leave the ECJ, end EU contributions and control migration. So where does this confusion come from?
They also explicitly said £350m for the NHS. Then after the vote admitted it was bollocks.
Which of their other explicit statements were false?
Mr. P, Mr. Watson wants to know what the deal is before it's negotiated. One suspects he's mischief-making, rather than someone who doesn't understand the direction in which time flows.
Also, Cameron is to blame. He forbade any contingency planning in case of a Leave victory, despite the polls being neck-and-neck. It was an active dereliction of duty.
There was nothing to stop the leading leavers, particularly on the Tory side who knew they would inherit the job if they won, sitting down and putting together an outline proposal and plan for leaving the EU. They didn't, because they knew that this would have made winning the vote less rather than more likely.
Mr. Nashe, and was on the winning side in the referendum.
If democracy doesn't work when the likes of Blair, Clegg etc don't agree with the result, then the electorate has a choice: turn to non-democratic means, or put up with not having their vote respected.
Neither of those options are good. And that's why efforts to undermine and reject the referendum result are repugnant.
One of the problems is people, for various reasons, pretending that if what they want doesn't happen the result is undermined, when so long as we leave that is simply untrue. The vote was to leave with no more details. Certain types of leave will be less popular than others, but no version has proven endorsement over the others. Therefore I would personally roll back from saying undermining the result was repugnant, because how does one undermine it? If we leave, it's been respected. If we don't, it hasnt. The details were deliberately left for afterwards no doubt precisely so flexibility and arguments could take p,ace on the precise form, and thus any type of Brexit meets the official demand of the referendum. A version where freedom of movement was kept woukd be very unpopular, but not undermining the actual result, but people woukd say it does.
The Democrat on #Marr hit the nail on the head - he said that when they have a referendum in America, the side advocating the change draws up a proposition - the example he gave was typically about ten pages of detail - and then the proposition is put to a vote, yes or no. He rightly observed that the problems we are having almost all stem from not having any detail or consensus as to what we have actually voted to do, other than the headline.
This was the problem with the referendum, Cameron tried to play it against leave by prohibiting them from setting out a plan and then trying to win the election by saying 'there's no plan!'
As people have been saying on Marr etc this morning, because we are a democracy we have to implement the outcome and try and make the best of it, somehow.
As people have been saying on Marr etc this morning, because we are a democracy we have to implement the outcome and try and make the best of it, somehow.
p.s. and please can't people for once stay on topic? We're a little over a day away from an election in one of the most astonishing, bitter and now close US Presidential elections in living memory: the result of which will have a substantial impact on the western world and beyond.
To be honest Clinton is going to walk it. I lost interest some time ago and I think the interest will be post Clinton's election and how the US reacts to it
You're loss of interest explains your belief that Hillary's going to walk it. She's in desperate trouble in the African and European American sectors.
I do not like her at all but as the choice is Trump she will win
Well at least be informed about it, for instance Malmesbury's post above yours gives some explanation and, as an American citizen, he's suggesting to you and others that it's close. Which it is.
Malmesbury, my concern about this also revolves around the turnouts in the primaries. I think we may see a high turnout on Tuesday and I don't think that does suit HRC.
I'm also concerned about the relatively poor early voting turnout for her. There's apathy towards her among African-Americans in particular, voters who helped carry key states for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
This is knife-edge stuff. My latest figures suggest 268 v 268 but a few states either way will obviously tip it.
The Leave campaign explicitly said we would leave the customs union, leave the single market, leave the ECJ, end EU contributions and control migration. So where does this confusion come from?
They also explicitly said £350m for the NHS. Then after the vote admitted it was bollocks.
Which of their other explicit statements were false?
Gove said explicitly that in the event of a leave vote the U.K. would stay within the European free trade zone.
I'm still waiting for the higher interest rates that nice Mr Osborne promised me. Was he telling porkies?
You got massive inflation. What more do you want?
What massive inflation rate? Just puerile* nonsense. Inflation is 1% CPI and 2% RPI.
*childishly silly and immature
An awful lot of things are about to go up by 15%, which I don't think can be described as insignificant. Fuel is already on the way; food prices will be rising by Christmas. As it happens I am about to commit to replacing my kitchen and the cost of most appliances rises by about 15% for orders placed after 14 November.
There's a lag in exchange rates feeding through to prices, because companies hold stock, hedge their currency exposure, and in the short-term often absorb the hit. There's also a lag before prices feed through to reported CPI and of course the reports are themselves made well in arrears.
Overall, the B o E expects inflation to peak at 2.7%. For most of my lifetime, governments would have been content with that.
Mr. P, Mr. Watson wants to know what the deal is before it's negotiated. One suspects he's mischief-making, rather than someone who doesn't understand the direction in which time flows.
Also, Cameron is to blame. He forbade any contingency planning in case of a Leave victory, despite the polls being neck-and-neck. It was an active dereliction of duty.
There was nothing to stop the leading leavers, particularly on the Tory side who knew they would inherit the job if they won, sitting down and putting together an outline proposal and plan for leaving the EU. They didn't, because they knew that this would have made winning the vote less rather than more likely.
But Leave winning the vote was already highly unlikely....
Mr. B2, there were also career implications for those who campaigned to leave that probably put them off.
Mr. 619, that kind of behaviour is absolutely unacceptable. It was disgraceful when a union organised protests outside a manager's home, and it'd be horrendous to do it now.
I think of the judiciary's complaints have been overblown (the 'openly gay' line excepted), but to call for protests outside someone's home is completely out of line.
Mr. P, you seem confused. I wasn't the Prime Minister who forbade the Civil Service from doing any contingency planning at all for a Leave victory. That was David Cameron.
Tip: outside chance Dems gain Missouri Senate seate, good candidate.
Austyn Cripes ( real name ? ) described Trump as “a textbook version of a dictator and a fascist”. In my opinion the secret service dealt appropriately with this dangerously deluded individual.
I'm sure that remainers and soft leavers are jubilant that Jeremy Corbyn has joined their ranks. along with political titans like Soubry, Morgan, Miliband, Clegg and the author of the omnishambles budget, it adds up to a pretty powerful roster.
The Social Losing Democrat Party? SLDP, Salads for short?
In the last 72 hours Trump is doing events in key states from Florida to Ohio to Iowa to Colorado to Nevada to Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and North Carolina to give himself the broadest possible map to victory. Hillary meanwhile is just campaigning in Florida and Ohio and Pennsylvania. As for polling denial RCP today has Clinton's national lead down to just 1. 8% which would make this the closest election since 2000 and Trump is ahead in more swing states than Romney was at this stage.
The Leave campaign explicitly said we would leave the customs union, leave the single market, leave the ECJ, end EU contributions and control migration. So where does this confusion come from?
They also explicitly said £350m for the NHS. Then after the vote admitted it was bollocks.
Which of their other explicit statements were false?
Are you suggesting that we simply stop making budgetary contributions to the EU, even before leaving it?
Comments
However the vast majority of voters will want to see the verdict respected and for us to leave the EU
- make prisons safer places
- prospective homeowners who might not otherwise ever own a home
- lower educational inequality
- give a voice to the largest number of voters ever to support anyone/any issue
The sort of compromise with the electorate needed to start winning again is not merely unnecessary, it runs positively counter to their interests.
I want the Brexiteers to take responsibility for Brexit. Stop whining about the people who didn't want or vote for Brexit.
You won. Suck it up.
Own the result. Explain to voters the consequences of the decision.
along with political titans like Soubry, Morgan, Miliband, Clegg and the author of the omnishambles budget, it adds up to a pretty powerful roster.
Tories under Cameron were actually falling back vs Corbyn. At least one poll but Lab above Con since May 2015.
Also, c/f Labour poll leads under Miliband. Several years of them. EICIPM anyone?
Seriously, Labour are being pummelled because they are no longer attractive. May's tanks are all over their lawns.
The customs union is not the EU? We voted to leave the EU, not the customs union.
You won. Suck it up!
On almost all the big issues of the day, Labour is unable to reach a consensus position even amongst MPs. Brexit (which affects most parties similarly) is just the start. Do they want to manage capitalism or have a planned economy? An extra runway at Heathrow? New missiles for Trident? Centralism or localism? So often with Labour they simply cannot say - their spokesman recently being unable to give any sort of credible answer when interviewed about his and the labour view on Heathrow was a classic. Corbyn knows what he believes but is often wrong, the so-called moderates struggle to map out any sort of credible prospectus (and on the rare occasions that they try, It has a habit of starting to sound like liberalism)
The consequences of the decision for good or ill will only become apparent once serious negotiations take place and this cannot even start until A50 has been served.
The active engagement of some to slow down the process, make it conditional or even seek a second referendum is doing more harm to our commercial interests than any negotiations as it is extending the uncertainty and also making us look indecisive within the EU and thereby reducing our advantages
Miss Freeman, it's tricky to call because there could be shy voters on both sides (but perhaps especially for Trump. I doubt I'll stay up through the night, but it will be intriguing to see how things pan out.
I suspect Trump has learnt one lesson and missed another from our referendum. He knows the Establishment has never been further from the electorate, but missed that belittling voters (little Englanders/bad hombres) makes them turn out against you.
Oh but the two are linked Ms Freeman. Voters here look across the Atlantic and they see how mass immigration has changed America vastly. They see how if Hillary gets in, it will be changed vastly again. They see that the person who controls immigration, controls power.
They want that power for themselves.
YOu really have excelled yourself in monumental stupidity this morning.
That is kind of the point.
(Sorry if you have and I've missed it)
Scott's right. It's your problem. Own it.
A measure of migration control is necessary (that may be fudgable with 'freedom to work' for guaranteed job offers, perhaps exceeding a certain salary).
Beyond that, I'm willing to see how things go. I think there is scope for either staying in the single market or not, depending on what conditions attach.
The most important thing is that we implement the referendum result.
Edited extra bit: and, no, you didn't miss it. I'm fairly open-minded about how things go, beyond the necessity of respecting the result and my strong preference to leave the customs union.
*childishly silly and immature
That really was an absurd statement from Scott. But then we are well used to hyperbole from remainers.
How lost ballots almost changed the 1990 Tory leadership election – that would have given Mrs. Thatcher the winning margin she needed: https://t.co/B4itFeJmjn
Of course if wishes were fishes he would be washing dishes. Perhaps he does.
So back on topic - who is going to win this damned thing? Is it the venal orange bigot that no-one in a sane world would ever admit to voting for? Or the toxic embodiment of machine politics who will end up impeached (at best) that no-one in a sane world would ever admit to voting for?
I guess we just have to trust that the voters are telling the truth to pollsters..... In which case, it's "too close to call". Or else there are a lot of liars out there.
I made good money 4 years ago predicting which states would fall which way. This year? My money stays in my wallet...
I have no problem with people clarifying the law: if the government does anything, it should always be in tune with the law. The motives of the people bringing the case is irrelevant.
But imagine if they'd brought the case *after* A50 had been sent? We'd be in a hellish limbo. The EU would have started the timer, and negotiating would be next-to impossible.
1) Hillary is unpopular. Very. Even among those groups who should be her natural supporters.
2) Trump is extremely unpopular. Even among those groups who should be his natural supporters. Mainly because he insults *everyone* in the end.
3) The polls are giving the edge to Hillary.
4) It comes down to differential turnout. Will Trump energise enough anti-Trumpers to vote Hillary? Will Hillary energise enough Trumpers?
One thing worth thinking about is this - GOTV operations in presidential elections are very valuable. The GOP system has been woeful/ridiculous in the last 2 elections. The Dem one seemed pretty damned good the last 2 times out. Hillary may be many things, but she and her supporters are excellent machine politicians...
So expect a focused, effective GOTV effort from the Democrats. The Republicans by contrast, have a system with a poor recent history - and the war between Trump and the GOP establishment hasn't helped either. Trump's chaotic campaigning system doesn't suggest a sudden turn around...
Off Topic: Milo Vs Clodius. Yup, why did I get a vision of Nick Clegg declaring that the omens are unfavourable for a vote on Article 50?
One big difference to 2012 is that Democrats ran the board in the Senate in 2012, but this doesn't seem likely now.
Leaving the customs union will piss off half the Leavers
Staying in will piss off the other half.
That's why they are terrified of having the debate about what Brexit means. The uneasy coalition that voted out all thought they were getting different things, and the Brexiteers need to keep stringing as many of them along for as long as possible before they realise how badly they were duped
Tip: outside chance Dems gain Missouri Senate seate, good candidate.
There's a lag in exchange rates feeding through to prices, because companies hold stock, hedge their currency exposure, and in the short-term often absorb the hit. There's also a lag before prices feed through to reported CPI and of course the reports are themselves made well in arrears.
Mr. P, making our own trade deals was a large aspect of the campaign(s) to leave. I'd be surprised if many were surprised or pissed off.
We voted to leave, and we should leave.
Suppose we do, and leave the single market but stay in the customs union. I'd be disappointed, but I'd also respect that. And, at the next election, if a party promised to leave the customs union I could vote for them. What matters is that the power to effect that change would exist, and would be in the electorate's hands (via the General Election).
They might also see it as a ploy for extending the period past the two years.
Malmesbury, my concern about this also revolves around the turnouts in the primaries. I think we may see a high turnout on Tuesday and I don't think that does suit HRC.
I'm also concerned about the relatively poor early voting turnout for her. There's apathy towards her among African-Americans in particular, voters who helped carry key states for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
This is knife-edge stuff. My latest figures suggest 268 v 268 but a few states either way will obviously tip it.
Cameron said voting out would be an unholy mess.
We voted out. It's an unholy mess.
"Why didn't Cameron warn us" whine the Brexiteers.
Umm...
Also, Cameron is to blame. He forbade any contingency planning in case of a Leave victory, despite the polls being neck-and-neck. It was an active dereliction of duty.
As for seeing it as a ploy, other member states all have their own separations of powers, they know that courts sometimes stop governments doing things.
Ah well.
https://twitter.com/CllrBSilvester/status/794902827697131520
I don;t know if anyone else has this experience. My office is solidly Clinton. And when I am there I am solidly Clinton. I go around with a hang dog expression, looking solemn.
Actually, I could n;t give a toss about Clinton and I think from a ''wrecking ball smash the establishment'' point of view one term of Donald Trump might not be the absolute worst thing that has ever happened to the United States of America.Compared, shall we say, with Pearl Harbour. Or Iwo Jima.
Of course I would never say that in office company. Which leads me to conclude that there MUST be a shy Trump vote. And a pretty big one.
Which of their other explicit statements were false?
As people have been saying on Marr etc this morning, because we are a democracy we have to implement the outcome and try and make the best of it, somehow.
Content? over the moon more like. Ditto with employment.
Mr. 619, that kind of behaviour is absolutely unacceptable. It was disgraceful when a union organised protests outside a manager's home, and it'd be horrendous to do it now.
I think of the judiciary's complaints have been overblown (the 'openly gay' line excepted), but to call for protests outside someone's home is completely out of line.
Mr. P, you seem confused. I wasn't the Prime Minister who forbade the Civil Service from doing any contingency planning at all for a Leave victory. That was David Cameron.
In my opinion the secret service dealt appropriately with this dangerously deluded individual.
There isn;t a single tariff from Iceland to Turkey right now. Not one.