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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082
    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
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    NEW THREAD

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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Dromedary said:

    surbiton said:

    Could McMullin win it for Clinton ?

    Shouldn't a die-hard Democrat vote McMullin and other Democrats down ballot ?

    https://heatst.com/politics/final-utah-poll-evan-mcmullin-beats-clinton-closes-trump/

    What is the logic in that? It isn't like a Labour supporter voting LibDem to keep the Tory out. The only way that McMullin could win it for Clinton is if he takes enough votes in Utah from Trump to stop Trump winning but without getting enough votes to win it himself, and meanwhile Clinton wins sufficient support to beat both McMullin and Trump, and that is NOT going to happen. It's more likely that McMullin will win Utah than Clinton will. If he does win, I will be very surprised if his electors vote for Clinton. If they don't vote for McMullin himself they will vote for Pence or Ryan or some other Republican. If there's no overall majority in the electoral college, Clinton's chances of winning the presidency will fall through the floor. There will be a GOTVITEC ("Get Out the Vote In the Electoral College") stage, but Clinton is unlikely to be a big player in it. The question will be will it be Trump who gets the Oval Office or will it be whatever right-winger has managed to come third in the electoral college vote.
    Indeed, if the race is close enough for Utah to matter then Clinton needs to win it; either a Trump or McMuffin win would not be good for her. There's not really much sense in tactical voting here.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:


    Just so other people are aware this does actually look like an important, damaging email and not the usual lies and overblown bullshit.

    Maybe, maybe not.

    The problem Trump faces is that having run a campaign based on wild conspiracy theories (the birther stuff, Obama is a Muslim, Ted Cruz's dad killed JFK, Clinton murderers, rigged elections, judge Scalia was murdered, etc etc etc), it's going to be rather hard for him to get any traction now with more email stuff.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,015

    Mr. G, as a diversion, I got XCOM 2 the other day for PS4 [I'd planned to wait but for reasons I did not]. Harder than the first game, but still enjoying it a lot. My soldiers seem to be getting killed off quite swiftly (alas, Benjamin "DizzyRascal" Disraeli is dead).

    Some jankiness with animations and low frame rates (latter not really an issue for a TBS game). Customisation in both the sense of appearance and gameplay is improved, and there seems to be a stronger story.

    I'll review it at some point, but that'll be a while off. Most missions are about the same length as last time, but I had a sort of optional-story mission yesterday that must've been about an hour and a half.

    MD , I am a dinosaur , absolutely terrible at gaming, I leave that to the grandkids.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,015
    Scott_P said:

    malcolmg said:

    Any deal will be worse than we have now or more expensive , or even both worse and more expensive given the donkeys negotiating it.

    Maybe Nicola can lend them the experts that negotiated the secret China deal?

    Oh, wait...
    Only one set of arse lickers have sold out to the Chinese if I remember correctly . Pawned our future energy for a king's ransom.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
    Thnx
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,472
    Scott_P said:

    Project Fear...

    https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/795250963539955712

    EDIT: Apparently a 10% price hike is not "massive" in the new world of Brexit

    They are asking for higher prices because they are SELLING MORE. Weaker £ = greater demand for their produce. Nice 'Brexit causes economic boom' rallying cry numnuts. No wonder the people who run your 'research department' don't think you're worthy of your own chair.
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