politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 27th 2016

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

There's a bullish report for Clinton from Fox News based on early voting statistics:
Clinton is showing strength in Florida and North Carolina, both must-win states for Trump, as well as the battleground states of Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. There are even favorable signs for Clinton in Republican-leaning Utah and Texas.
http://www.fox5ny.com/news/214051542-story

However 'In Ohio, the heavily Democratic counties of Cuyahoga and Franklin continue to show double-digit declines in ballot requests compared to 2012. The state does not break down ballots by party affiliation. By race, voter modeling by Catalist found the white share of Ohio ballot requests was up to 91 percent from 87 percent. The black share declined to 7 percent from 10 percent.
Democrats lead early ballot requests in Iowa, 43 percent to 35 percent. But that lead is narrower than 2012, when Democrats held an advantage of 14 percentage points. Obama ultimately won the state by 5 percentage points.
And in Georgia, which does not report party affiliation, ballots submitted are up from 2012, but mostly among whites.
The white share of ballots rose a percentage point to 66 percent. The black share fell to 31 percent from 34 percent, according to Catalist.'

In North Carolina and Florida the Democrats had the advantage in early voting in 2012 but Romney won the former and the latter was very close

That kind of comment is obviously meaningless, as it makes no reference to the numbers. What the article actually says about Florida is this:
In Florida, more than 2.4 million voters have already returned ballots. In-person voting began Monday, and Democrats have pulled virtually even with Republicans, at 41 percent each. That's a much faster rate of catch-up than in 2012 and 2008, when Barack Obama won the state.

Perhaps that interpretation could be disputed with reference to the numbers, but vague waffle about "the Democrats were ahead but it was very close" is a waste of everyone's time.

So Republicans are still ahead in Florida then in early voting, Obama won it by 0.88% in 2012. Of course you will pick the numbers which are most pro Hillary which was why you left out the Ohio, Iowa and GA numbers. Goodnight

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Mildly disturbing interview with Tony Schwartz (who wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump) on the BBC's Newsnight, claiming he has already made arrangements to leave the US should Trump win, as he fears for his personal safety.

Q. "Can you think of any redeeming personal qualities he might have ?"
...pause...
"No."

Actually the most damning criticism (and one I made in the debates), trump is unable to concentrate for more than 5 minutes. That is incredibly dangerous for a world leader.

Politicians lying & not being nice people behind the scenes, well hiliary has both in spades, but one thing you wouldn't say is she can't hold her shit together for a maximum of 5 minutes.

One positive that the civil.servants used to say about Cameron was they gave him stuff in his red box & he would sit, concentrate and get through the shit in a timely fashion.

Let's try to look on the bright side. If Trump was already like that nearly 30 years ago when this bloke wrote his book for him, at least it's not likely to be the result of senile dementia.

HYUFD said:

So Republicans are still ahead in Florida then in early voting, Obama won it by 0.88% in 2012. Of course you will pick the numbers which are most pro Hillary which was why you left out the Ohio, Iowa and GA numbers. Goodnight

Please don't judge others by your own standards. I quoted the summary paragraph from the introductory section in full. Ohio, Iowa and Georgia aren't mentioned in the introductory section at all, probably because neither Ohio nor Georgia reports party affiliation. As you've raised Iowa, what the article says about that state is:
Democrats lead early ballot requests in Iowa, 43 percent to 35 percent. But that lead is narrower than 2012, when Democrats held an advantage of 14 percentage points. Obama ultimately won the state by 5 percentage points.

On the face of it, on the simplest assumptions, those figures would imply a one percent Republican victory. But if Trump were just scraping a win in Iowa, it would be very doubtful if he could take states like Pennsylvania or his other targets in the mid-West, wouldn't it?

And I repeat - it's absolutely meaningless to say things like "So Republicans are still ahead in Florida then in early voting, Obama won it by 0.88% in 2012." Obviously you need to ask "How far ahead are they?" and "How far were they ahead at this stage last time?" And then make some kind of quantitative comparison.

williamglenn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Mildly disturbing interview with Tony Schwartz (who wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump) on the BBC's Newsnight, claiming he has already made arrangements to leave the US should Trump win, as he fears for his personal safety.

Q. "Can you think of any redeeming personal qualities he might have ?"
...pause...
"No."

Actually the most damning criticism (and one I made in the debates), trump is unable to concentrate for more than 5 minutes. That is incredibly dangerous for a world leader.

Politicians lying & not being nice people behind the scenes, well hiliary has both in spades, but one thing you wouldn't say is she can't hold her shit together for a maximum of 5 minutes.

One positive that the civil.servants used to say about Cameron was they gave him stuff in his red box & he would sit, concentrate and get through the shit in a timely fashion.

It's hard to square the alleged short attention span with the other claim that Trump will relentlessly pursue something until he gets his way. Even Schwartz said he thought Trump had qualities that could be used for tremendous good in the right cause.

It's not hard at all to have both. They aren't mutually exclusive.

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

Mildly disturbing interview with Tony Schwartz (who wrote The Art of the Deal for Trump) on the BBC's Newsnight, claiming he has already made arrangements to leave the US should Trump win, as he fears for his personal safety.

Q. "Can you think of any redeeming personal qualities he might have ?"
...pause...
"No."

Actually the most damning criticism (and one I made in the debates), trump is unable to concentrate for more than 5 minutes. That is incredibly dangerous for a world leader.

Politicians lying & not being nice people behind the scenes, well hiliary has both in spades, but one thing you wouldn't say is she can't hold her shit together for a maximum of 5 minutes.

One positive that the civil.servants used to say about Cameron was they gave him stuff in his red box & he would sit, concentrate and get through the shit in a timely fashion.

It's hard to square the alleged short attention span with the other claim that Trump will relentlessly pursue something until he gets his way. Even Schwartz said he thought Trump had qualities that could be used for tremendous good in the right cause.

It's not hard at all to have both. They aren't mutually exclusive.

Agreed, but it sounds like Trump has more of a carousel style focus where he will quickly move on to the next thing, but when he comes back round to the first item on the agenda will expect an immediate update.

Good evening.

London says, 'Fuck you Brexit.'

Good night.

Trump campaigning in Geneva.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgmtewvB76I

RobD said:

wasd said:

john_zims said:

The newly elected government in Lithuania is apparently the Anti Emigration party.

Since joining the EU 40% of its population have emigrated ,mainly to the UK, particularly young people and Medical staff.

I was in Vilnius in May and it just felt empty.

I just had look at the wikipedia article on it. Not a single mention as to why the population is falling. In fact, the decline isn't even mentioned at all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lithuania

This Telegraph article has more on the emigration numbers and the success of LPGU party.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/24/anti-emigration-party-storms-to-victory-in-lithuania/

RobD said:

wasd said:

john_zims said:

The newly elected government in Lithuania is apparently the Anti Emigration party.

Since joining the EU 40% of its population have emigrated ,mainly to the UK, particularly young people and Medical staff.

I was in Vilnius in May and it just felt empty.

I just had look at the wikipedia article on it. Not a single mention as to why the population is falling. In fact, the decline isn't even mentioned at all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Lithuania

The decline is obvious on the graph!

MarkSenior said:

MP_SE said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

UKIP backing Zak (which I suspect also has something to do with avoiding another poor result) may well help the LibDems, in an area like Richmond. Indeed I wouldnt be surprised to see the LibDems start referring to him as "..backed by UKIP".

And the lib dem candidate being associated with Jenny Tonge may attract some interesting comments from their opponents

Amusing to see Tim Farron claim that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for a Britain that is open, tolerant & united. Not quite sure the party of Jenny Tonge and David Ward can be described as being open, tolerant & united.

Repeat my question from the last thread .

What is your motivation/agenda for keeping posting that the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond is " associated - whatever that means " with Jenny Tonge ?
Come along don't be shy , show us your true colours .

I think most decent people would avoid campaigning and posing for photos with an individual who has made numerous abhorrent comments over the years.

@Jobabob

'Good evening.

London says, 'Fuck you Brexit.'

Good night.'


A post Martin Day would have been proud of.

In other news the Great Remoan sulk continues.

Mike Pence's plane has skidded off the runway in New York.

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Mike Pence's plane has skidded off the runway in New York.

Hopefully not serious.

He's just tweeted:

https://twitter.com/mike_pence/status/791804660071993344

People can be "emboldened"; words, not so much.

I wonder if Mr Senior would be so quick to approve of associating with the rest of Tonge's ilk like Nick Griffin etc? Or do yellow racists get a pass?

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

MP_SE said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

UKIP backing Zak (which I suspect also has something to do with avoiding another poor result) may well help the LibDems, in an area like Richmond. Indeed I wouldnt be surprised to see the LibDems start referring to him as "..backed by UKIP".

And the lib dem candidate being associated with Jenny Tonge may attract some interesting comments from their opponents

Amusing to see Tim Farron claim that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for a Britain that is open, tolerant & united. Not quite sure the party of Jenny Tonge and David Ward can be described as being open, tolerant & united.

Repeat my question from the last thread .

What is your motivation/agenda for keeping posting that the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond is " associated - whatever that means " with Jenny Tonge ?
Come along don't be shy , show us your true colours .

She is a vile, racist, antisemitic scumbag. What more do you want from the story?

No she is not. The three possibilities are that you're mindlessly repeating what someone else has said, you're lying, or you're not fit to say the word "racist" because you don't know what it means. Jenny Tonge is one of the extremely few members of either of the houses of Parliament who is a person of integrity and principle. That's what such a person looks like. If you think she's vile, that's a measure of you.

Dromedary said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

MP_SE said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

UKIP backing Zak (which I suspect also has something to do with avoiding another poor result) may well help the LibDems, in an area like Richmond. Indeed I wouldnt be surprised to see the LibDems start referring to him as "..backed by UKIP".

And the lib dem candidate being associated with Jenny Tonge may attract some interesting comments from their opponents

Amusing to see Tim Farron claim that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for a Britain that is open, tolerant & united. Not quite sure the party of Jenny Tonge and David Ward can be described as being open, tolerant & united.

Repeat my question from the last thread .

What is your motivation/agenda for keeping posting that the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond is " associated - whatever that means " with Jenny Tonge ?
Come along don't be shy , show us your true colours .

She is a vile, racist, antisemitic scumbag. What more do you want from the story?

No she is not. The three possibilities are that you're mindlessly repeating what someone else has said, you're lying, or you're not fit to say the word "racist" because you don't know what it means. Jenny Tonge is one of the extremely few members of either of the houses of Parliament who is a person of integrity and principle. That's what such a person looks like. If you think she's vile, that's a measure of you.

You're funny.

D

Philip_Thompson said:

Dromedary said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

MP_SE said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

UKIP backing Zak (which I suspect also has something to do with avoiding another poor result) may well help the LibDems, in an area like Richmond. Indeed I wouldnt be surprised to see the LibDems start referring to him as "..backed by UKIP".

And the lib dem candidate being associated with Jenny Tonge may attract some interesting comments from their opponents

Amusing to see Tim Farron claim that a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for a Britain that is open, tolerant & united. Not quite sure the party of Jenny Tonge and David Ward can be described as being open, tolerant & united.

Repeat my question from the last thread .

What is your motivation/agenda for keeping posting that the Lib Dem candidate in Richmond is " associated - whatever that means " with Jenny Tonge ?
Come along don't be shy , show us your true colours .

She is a vile, racist, antisemitic scumbag. What more do you want from the story?

No she is not. The three possibilities are that you're mindlessly repeating what someone else has said, you're lying, or you're not fit to say the word "racist" because you don't know what it means. Jenny Tonge is one of the extremely few members of either of the houses of Parliament who is a person of integrity and principle. That's what such a person looks like. If you think she's vile, that's a measure of you.

You're funny.

I thought you wouldn't have the courage of your convictions. It's so easy for a followy twerp to throw rude words at an honourable person on the internet - words which for millions of people have real meaning, as in burnt babies and refugee camps.

Dromedary said:

I thought you wouldn't have the courage of your convictions. It's so easy for a followy twerp to throw rude words at an honourable person on the internet - words which for millions of people have real meaning, as in burnt babies and refugee camps.

I'd assume that this site (based on it's name - I don't know it - is no friend of the guardian). But it looked to me to be a useful factual summary of events (although I don't know if it complete) if you ignore the editoralising.

Clearly Tonge has a bit of a bee in her bonnet, and although she may always be careful to use "Israeli government" vs. "Jewish" she does stray very close to some very unpleasant memes.

The pro-Israeli lobby has got its grips on the Western World, its financial grips. I think they’ve probably got a certain grip on our [The Liberal Democrat] party” [2006]

the West’s treatment of Muslims was due to the power of the pro-Israel lobby and “Holocaust guilt” [2010]

In 2011 Tonge helped bring Islamist cleric Raed Salah – promoter of the antisemitic charge that Jews use the blood of non-Jews to bake their “sabbath bread” – into Parliament

https://ukmediawatch.org/2013/10/09/guardian-publishes-letter-by-jenny-tonge-on-the-issue-of-antisemitism/

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

Trump campaigning in Geneva.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgmtewvB76I

What's he doing in Switzerland?

Why not .... Trump is cuckoo ....

The final agreement remains confidential. According to sources it involves an assurance from the government that Britain “is as attractive tomorrow as it is today” and makes a commitment to ensuring the company’s operations here “remain competitive”. Mr Clark described it as a “strategic commitment to ensure that the whole automotive sector, and other advanced manufacture, will be competitive”.

Nevertheless the company was quietly suggesting that it has been granted what it wanted — assurances that the government would not allow Nissan to be worse off under Brexit. Company sources suggest that this means they can now expect compensation in the event of a hard Brexit that lead to tariffs being imposed on its exports.

Mr Clark is denying in public that a deal was struck on tariffs. “There hasn’t been a detailed and specific agreement on things like tariffs,” he told The Times. “There has been a high-level commitment. It was never done in that detail.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-wobble-by-nissan-and-frantic-calls-to-japan-how-the-car-deal-was-settled-fjhxpp5m7

How do we "take back control" from the Japanese?

https://twitter.com/5cribblesvurt/status/791644417983713280

Scott_P said:

The final agreement remains confidential. According to sources it involves an assurance from the government that Britain “is as attractive tomorrow as it is today” and makes a commitment to ensuring the company’s operations here “remain competitive”. Mr Clark described it as a “strategic commitment to ensure that the whole automotive sector, and other advanced manufacture, will be competitive”.

Nevertheless the company was quietly suggesting that it has been granted what it wanted — assurances that the government would not allow Nissan to be worse off under Brexit. Company sources suggest that this means they can now expect compensation in the event of a hard Brexit that lead to tariffs being imposed on its exports.

Mr Clark is denying in public that a deal was struck on tariffs. “There hasn’t been a detailed and specific agreement on things like tariffs,” he told The Times. “There has been a high-level commitment. It was never done in that detail.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-wobble-by-nissan-and-frantic-calls-to-japan-how-the-car-deal-was-settled-fjhxpp5m7

It's good news, I should think.

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

Not sure how that works, since the government was the one telling them the plan, not vice versa.

They were the ones dictating the terms. They have more power than Parliament. I thought that was the whole point of Brexit, according to the Brexiteers...

Whatever you say!

Sean_F said:

It's good news, I should think.

For Toyota, Tata, Honda, GM, absolutely...

It led to calls from other car manufacturers for similar pledges. Toyota said that it trusted the government to provide “fair treatment”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/last-ditch-no-10-pledge-kept-nissan-in-britain-fbhg07fx0

CarlottaVance said:

Charles said:

i.e. the reporting by the Remain inclined media ("Australia won't negotiate with the UK while they are members of the EU") is very misleading.

Reading some of today's reports on the Nissan decision it would appear some think its bad news.......

Our failure to collapse into recession also gets minimal coverage......

Agreed. There's nothing bad about protecting British industry and jobs.

I think it's now widely acknowledged that the early Thatcher years left our industry so unprotected that manufacturing went to the wall.

However, I think we have to get used to the fact that Remoaners are eagerly awaiting any scrap of bad news they can possibly grab. Miserable lot.

JennyFreeman said:

Agreed. There's nothing bad about protecting British industry and jobs.

https://twitter.com/joewatts_/status/791891703120756736

Sandpit said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

The final agreement remains confidential. According to sources it involves an assurance from the government that Britain “is as attractive tomorrow as it is today” and makes a commitment to ensuring the company’s operations here “remain competitive”. Mr Clark described it as a “strategic commitment to ensure that the whole automotive sector, and other advanced manufacture, will be competitive”.

Nevertheless the company was quietly suggesting that it has been granted what it wanted — assurances that the government would not allow Nissan to be worse off under Brexit. Company sources suggest that this means they can now expect compensation in the event of a hard Brexit that lead to tariffs being imposed on its exports.

Mr Clark is denying in public that a deal was struck on tariffs. “There hasn’t been a detailed and specific agreement on things like tariffs,” he told The Times. “There has been a high-level commitment. It was never done in that detail.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-wobble-by-nissan-and-frantic-calls-to-japan-how-the-car-deal-was-settled-fjhxpp5m7

I'm reminded of a saying I once heard.. "brexit means brexit, and we are going to make a success of it"...

Morning all. There still seem to be a large number of people, on here and elsewhere, who clearly wish for an unsuccessful Britain. They were having a collective meltdown yesterday under the weight of a stream of good economic news.

And they still are today. They have invested so much faith in failure....

Scott_P said:

JennyFreeman said:

Agreed. There's nothing bad about protecting British industry and jobs.

twitter.com/joewatts_/status/791891703120756736

Just think of it as a targeted corporation tax cut.

Moses_ said:

Just briefly scanned the thread.

Scott n'paste seems to be making lots of posts and innuendo about the Nissan situation without providing any evidence or even any links.

He should remember the government is not there to build or create but to provide the conditions that others may do so........

That is all.

Sounds like everyone will soon be waiting outside No 10 holding their caps out for some conditions that we'll all have to pay for.

Funny how the magic money tree is fine when it's Tories shaking it.

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

Just think of it as a targeted corporation tax cut.

It's not though. Its not a reduction in future tax take, it's a guarantee of no corporate loss (allegedly). That's a tax rebate, of an unspecified amount.

Still cheering?

The UK government has guaranteed them they won't make a loss after Brexit? I find that hard to believe.

JennyFreeman said:

CarlottaVance said:

Charles said:

i.e. the reporting by the Remain inclined media ("Australia won't negotiate with the UK while they are members of the EU") is very misleading.

Reading some of today's reports on the Nissan decision it would appear some think its bad news.......

Our failure to collapse into recession also gets minimal coverage......

Agreed. There's nothing bad about protecting British industry and jobs.

I think it's now widely acknowledged that the early Thatcher years left our industry so unprotected that manufacturing went to the wall.

However, I think we have to get used to the fact that Remoaners are eagerly awaiting any scrap of bad news they can possibly grab. Miserable lot.

You hypocrites. Your party is supposed to be about free enterprise, not state bungs. As we're still a mrmber of the EU I wonder whether some people will be interested in this deal from the perspective of state aid?

Good morning, everyone.

F1: practice starts at 4pm and 8pm today.

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

Just think of it as a targeted corporation tax cut.

It's not though. Its not a reduction in future tax take, it's a guarantee of no corporate loss (allegedly). That's a tax rebate, of an unspecified amount.

You really shouldn't believe everything you read in the papers.....as Charles pointed out The Times take on an Australia Trade Deal and the Australian trade Minister's were rather different......

Scott_P said:

Monksfield said:

Sounds like everyone will soon be waiting outside No 10 holding their caps out for some conditions that we'll all have to pay for.

Funny how the magic money tree is fine when it's Tories shaking it.

I am looking forward to the Brexiteers cheering the boss of BMW asking for their bung...

I am sure that BMW will get a similar bung so that Minis remain British made, and rightly so.

I see this a a sign that the government wants no trade barriers with manufactured goods with the EU, either by Customs Union or by a specific agreement.

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

It's good news, I should think.

For Toyota, Tata, Honda, GM, absolutely...

It led to calls from other car manufacturers for similar pledges. Toyota said that it trusted the government to provide “fair treatment”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/last-ditch-no-10-pledge-kept-nissan-in-britain-fbhg07fx0

It sounds like win/win to me.

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

It's good news, I should think.

For Toyota, Tata, Honda, GM, absolutely...

It led to calls from other car manufacturers for similar pledges. Toyota said that it trusted the government to provide “fair treatment”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/last-ditch-no-10-pledge-kept-nissan-in-britain-fbhg07fx0

It sounds like win/win to me.

But for some reason, some people seem upset......

foxinsoxuk said:

Scott_P said:

Monksfield said:

Sounds like everyone will soon be waiting outside No 10 holding their caps out for some conditions that we'll all have to pay for.

Funny how the magic money tree is fine when it's Tories shaking it.

I am looking forward to the Brexiteers cheering the boss of BMW asking for their bung...

I am sure that BMW will get a similar bung so that Minis remain British made, and rightly so.

I see this a a sign that the government wants no trade barriers with manufactured goods with the EU, either by Customs Union or by a specific agreement.

I agree. And quite right too. Worse case scenario would be that the UK would reimburse car exporters their tariffs from the tariffs raised on EU cars coming here. The futility of such measures for both sides should ensure tariff free trade with the EU in this sector and hopefully in all traded goods.

Sandpit said:

RobD said:

Monksfield said:

JennyFreeman said:

CarlottaVance said:

Charles said:

i.e. the reporting by the Remain inclined media ("Australia won't negotiate with the UK while they are members of the EU") is very misleading.

Reading some of today's reports on the Nissan decision it would appear some think its bad news.......

Our failure to collapse into recession also gets minimal coverage......

Agreed. There's nothing bad about protecting British industry and jobs.

I think it's now widely acknowledged that the early Thatcher years left our industry so unprotected that manufacturing went to the wall.

However, I think we have to get used to the fact that Remoaners are eagerly awaiting any scrap of bad news they can possibly grab. Miserable lot.

You hypocrites. Your party is supposed to be about free enterprise, not state bungs. As we're still a mrmber of the EU I wonder whether some people will be interested in this deal from the perspective of state aid?

There has allegedly been no financial aid offered.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/27/nissan-to-build-new-cars-in-sunderland-as-it-rejects-brexit-doub/

"Number 10 has denied that any special help is on offer to Nissan, rejecting reports that the manufacturer had been promised extra financial support in the event of Brexit harming the company.

Instead, it is understood that the government is offering extra support to the wider industry, for instance by encouraging investment in research and development of greener vehicles, improving manufacturing skills and supporting the wider automotive supply chain."

That's exactly as it should be. Lower corporate tax rates, lower payroll taxes and incentives for innovation and training to encourage all companies, rather than picking winners as we did 30 or 40 years ago.

Sounds like a lot of huff and puff to me.. Nissan tried to get money from HMG(and why not) but failed/, .. If HMG has offered money guarantees, they are barking mad.

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

SeanT said:

I just had fantastic sex with a 21 year old Remainer.

I make this point solely to boast, and with no relation to politics, whatsoever.

Is she now a remoaner ?

Ha!

Once his young lady finds this has been posted on PB, Sean may find a tariff barrier has been setup next time he tries...

Anyone looking for something to moan about this morning really should focus on Dhaka. A long winter of disappointment awaits I fear.

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

It's good news, I should think.

For Toyota, Tata, Honda, GM, absolutely...

It led to calls from other car manufacturers for similar pledges. Toyota said that it trusted the government to provide “fair treatment”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/last-ditch-no-10-pledge-kept-nissan-in-britain-fbhg07fx0

You strike me as someone keen to find a way to make any fact, however inconvenient for you, fit your thesis that Brexit is an unmitigated disaster.

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

It's good news, I should think.

For Toyota, Tata, Honda, GM, absolutely...

It led to calls from other car manufacturers for similar pledges. Toyota said that it trusted the government to provide “fair treatment”.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/last-ditch-no-10-pledge-kept-nissan-in-britain-fbhg07fx0

You strike me as someone keen to find a way to make any fact, however inconvenient for you, fit your thesis that Brexit is an unmitigated disaster.

"It's being so cheerful as keeps me going".......

The Banglas had a good morning in Dhaka, now 154/1 after only 36 overs. Iqbal poised to get a ton.

England 3.85 on Betfair. And lay the draw at 2.8, it's not going to rain.

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

I thought this was amusing on Election Data:

http://election-data.co.uk/by-election-previews-27-10-16

Starting this week in a town which is probably fairly high up the “hate list” for many people in Granadaland. The North Wales coast has some nice seaside towns, but Rhyl is not one of them: it’s as brash and in-your-face as Blackpool but without Blackpool’s charm. Rhyl West is the town centre division, running from the railway station to the seafront and including the West Parade, the Seaquarium and the eyesore that is the Marine Lake, whose redevelopment was a casualty of the financial crash and has since been stymied by the fact that it’s located on the River Clwyd floodplain. It says something about the town that the most high-profile thing to have happened here in recent years involved Ched Evans.

Rhyl is a real shame - used to be (50 years ago) the go to tourist location for the entire NW of England. My mother grew up there and a number of my family live there.

It seriously, seriously needs some businesses to open there. If the Tories can stimulate some development, council seats like that are ripe for the taking. I see the results are out - safe Labour hold on poor turnout. Why people actively vote Labour there is beyond me - they've done nothing visibly to counter the decline in decades....

The parly seat that contains Rhyl went Tory at the last election, FYI.

JennyFreeman said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

JennyFreeman said:

CarlottaVance said:

Charles said:

i.e. the reporting by the Remain inclined media ("Australia won't negotiate with the UK while they are members of the EU") is very misleading.

Reading some of today's reports on the Nissan decision it would appear some think its bad news.......

Our failure to collapse into recession also gets minimal coverage......

.

For all of my lifetime, British economic policy has been a mix of capitalism and State intervention, and I expect that will continue. Purist free enterprise ended after WWI.

Precisely.

What a lot of moaning by purists for nothing. Real people's livelihoods have been looked after.

But we can be a miserable lot of old bu ggers in this country.

Nor are they free market purists - they cheered all of Osborne's economic interventions.

Including Osborne's over-borrowing - currently standing at £225bn.

nunu said:

Now this is interesting. Maybe people vote for who look like them.

Josh Barro
4h
Josh Barro ‏@jbarro
Nate Cohn's early vote-based model (Clinton to win NC by 6) bakes in a lower black share of electorate vs '12. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html …
Josh Barro
4h
Josh Barro ‏@jbarro
Cohn has black voters as 21% of NC electorate (vs. 23% in 2012) but Clinton wins due to much better vote share among whites.

The increase in white voteshare in North Carolina is unlikely to be voters inspired by Hillary

Anyway, I'm off to Uttoxeter this afternoon where there is a novice chase that would be worthy of any marque saturday meeting.

Kim Bailey's Charbel led for much of last season's Supreme Novices Hurdle before fading on the hill. This quick flat track ought to suit and if he can jump a fence (obviously an if for these beginners) I think he will have too much pace for Nicky Henderson's Top Notch who ran a decent race in last seasons Champion Hurdle but was otherwise a tad disappointing. Le Prezien is another interesting one for the champion trainer, finishing behind the wayward Yorkhill at Aintree, but the latter was a nutter that day and Le Prezien may have been a little flattered and may want further. Solstice Star had a ball in handicaps last year improving a huge amount, but perhaps not to the level of the two aforementioned. Vendor and Kayf Blanco make up the field, both fair handicappers but probably not up to this.

Charbel at 3-1 is a fair bet but dyor...