politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another EU referendum before 2020 betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another EU referendum before 2020 betting
SkyBet have a market up on whether we’ll have another EU referendum before 2020, unlike a few other bookies, SkyBet are offering No as an option. One of the reasons why supporters of Remain should avoid a second referendum is that the public will not take kindly to having their verdict overturned, and we could see a Winchester 1997 rerun type result in another referendum.
Comments
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First like leave.0
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Second like Remain.0
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1/4 does have a whiff of free money about it.
I have my doubts that there will ever be another referendum in my lifetime.
The point of a referendum is to get the people to resolve a dispute in your own party that threatens to tear it apart in the way you as PM want it resolved.
Now it dosent work anymore they wont risk it again so long as June 23rd 2016 is in living memory.0 -
No.Alistair said:Betting thought.
Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?
If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.
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I would think that there is more chance of the UK ceasing to exist in its current form than a second Euroref.0
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FTPTJackW said:
No.Alistair said:Betting thought.
Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?
If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.
I don't mean as a double win, I mean as a saver on the swing state bets.
Taking NOM as a saver on my SNP Holyrood constituency bets would have seen me much happier than my all red book was.0 -
No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?0 -
Agreed. A second Scottish referendum would happen before a second Euroref.SandyRentool said:I would think that there is more chance of the UK ceasing to exist in its current form than a second Euroref.
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Hi All I've been away with pneumonia! Hope to be on my feet by Wednesday. Cheers.0
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Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?0 -
I would agree with that.SandyRentool said:I would think that there is more chance of the UK ceasing to exist in its current form than a second Euroref.
I also think that (1) with Project Fear not likely to be repeated and (2) major problems on the continent (Deutsche Bank, Hungary, the Italian constitution) the result of a second referendum would in any case be a much bigger victory for Leave.
Certainly I voted Remain, albeit reuctantly, but in a second referendum I would unhesitatingly vote Leave, to show how I feel about these stupid 'neverendums' that always seem to happen in the EU.0 -
But will the voters come out for Hillary?Alistair said:FTPT
JackW said:
No.Alistair said:Betting thought.
Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?
If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.
I don't mean as a double win, I mean as a saver on the swing state bets.
Taking NOM as a saver on my SNP Holyrood constituency bets would have seen me much happier than my all red book was.0 -
Aleksandar Kolarov is just a pound shop Jamie Pollock0
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A distinct possibility. I doubt if this would displease the Prime Minister. Can be used as means to persuade a reluctant electorate that she has been forced to go to the country.LibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?0 -
Poor Arsenal fans, they are set to miss out on the delights of Burnley
Arsenal fans have journey to Burnley thrown into chaos after train hits cows
• Grand Central train reportedly kills eight cows
• Supporters tweet they will miss match at Turf Moor
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/arsenal-fans-burnley-train-cows?CMP=twt_gu0 -
Just catching up on Panorama on Labour's recent woes.
Politics question, 25 marks; 'Len McCluskey is the most unselfware man since Mussolini criticised Matteoti's violent rhetoric.' Discuss.0 -
I doubt it's a viable strategy.Alistair said:FTPT
JackW said:
No.Alistair said:Betting thought.
Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?
If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.
I don't mean as a double win, I mean as a saver on the swing state bets.
Taking NOM as a saver on my SNP Holyrood constituency bets would have seen me much happier than my all red book was.
There's little value in the market presently. I've closed out all my positions to the the not inconsiderable delight of the Mrs JackW Shoe Foundation For The Impoverished Aristocracy ..
Twas ever thus ..0 -
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?0 -
Christie on the NYT bombshell: "This is actually a very, very good story for Donald Trump."
Rudy says Trump is "strategic" and "a genius" because of how he handled his taxes. #ThisWeek
ermmmm
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The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?0 -
Remember the big right wing demos in Liverpool at the Labour Conference?
No?
To 'Clementine':
“Make the bonfire, make the bonfire, put the Tories on the top
Put the Blairites in the middle and we’ll burn the f***ing lot
Keep it burning, keep it burning, put the bankers on as well
They’re as guilty as the others, they can all go burn in hell”.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/conservative-conference-live-article-50-89606700 -
What do you mean poor Arsenal Fans? What about the poor cows?TheScreamingEagles said:Poor Arsenal fans, they are set to miss out on the delights of Burnley
Arsenal fans have journey to Burnley thrown into chaos after train hits cows
• Grand Central train reportedly kills eight cows
• Supporters tweet they will miss match at Turf Moor
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/arsenal-fans-burnley-train-cows?CMP=twt_gu
UTC
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This article of one Trump supporter gives me the shivers.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc_story.html0 -
@Peston: Tory chairman Patrick McLoughlin thanks @George_Osborne. Not a clap or dicky bird of appreciation from Tory members #CPC160
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Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?0 -
When you've caught up another week, you'll find George Osborne announcing he won't fumble the next leadership contest.ydoethur said:Just catching up on Panorama on Labour's recent woes.
Politics question, 25 marks; 'Len McCluskey is the most unselfware man since Mussolini criticised Matteoti's violent rhetoric.' Discuss.0 -
Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. DeludedPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?0 -
Hezza onstage:
Lord Heseltine is 83. He says he first addressed the Tory conference 49 years ago.
It was in Blackpool, late in the day, and he was talking about transport policy. The hall was nearly empty, he says.
Pointing out that there is a big audience today, he says: “I can only reflect that everything comes to those who wait.”
He says it was about 30 years ago when William Hague, as a teenager, gave his famous speech and pointed in Heseltine’s direction saying, “In 30 years, you won’t he here.”
Heseltine says Hague got many things right, but not that.
A little poetic licence - Hague's speech was nearer 40 years ago than 30......
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/02/conservative-conference-may-to-explain-brexit-great-repeal-bill-in-marr-interview-politics-live0 -
One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. DeludedPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?0 -
The realpolitik is the Conservative Party has just restuffed the Lords with a Tory majority and there is no chance they are going to throw that away.SeanT said:If the Lords try to block the GRACT then the Lords will be stuffed, or abolished. It would be constitutional suicide to obstruct the will of the people, expressed in a direct vote, and with the biggest mandate in British electoral history. A vote, moreover, on the most important political change in living memory.
Do these derelict punks feel lucky? Well, do they?
It will pass.
Edit: to remove unintended rhyme.0 -
Supposedly Uncle Len is in a spot of bother himself, his members not best pleased about his stance on Trident, and his preference for meddling in the Labour party rather than looking out for him members interests.ydoethur said:Just catching up on Panorama on Labour's recent woes.
Politics question, 25 marks; 'Len McCluskey is the most unselfware man since Mussolini criticised Matteoti's violent rhetoric.' Discuss.
The Gospel According to Saint Hodges:
Labour moderates now believe Unite general secretary Len McCluskey – Corbyn’s main trade union ally – may be facing an internal revolt as he prepares his own re-election bid.
‘McCluskey’s in trouble,’ one MP informs me.
‘The Unite members in the defence sector are spitting blood over his stance on Trident, and there’s a general feeling he’s more interested in internal Labour politics than looking after the union’s industrial interests.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3817793/DAN-HODGES-isn-t-just-leader-s-speech-change-country-generations-Welcome-DAY-ONE-Millennium.html0 -
Is Hezza still bitter about things?CarlottaVance said:Hezza onstage:
Lord Heseltine is 83. He says he first addressed the Tory conference 49 years ago.
It was in Blackpool, late in the day, and he was talking about transport policy. The hall was nearly empty, he says.
Pointing out that there is a big audience today, he says: “I can only reflect that everything comes to those who wait.”
He says it was about 30 years ago when William Hague, as a teenager, gave his famous speech and pointed in Heseltine’s direction saying, “In 30 years, you won’t he here.”
Heseltine says Hague got many things right, but not that.
A little poetic licence - Hague's speech was nearer 40 years ago than 30......
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/02/conservative-conference-may-to-explain-brexit-great-repeal-bill-in-marr-interview-politics-live0 -
It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be hugeLibDem_Colin said:
One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. DeludedPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?0 -
Is, was, and always will be.GIN1138 said:
Is Hezza still bitter about things?CarlottaVance said:Hezza onstage:
Lord Heseltine is 83. He says he first addressed the Tory conference 49 years ago.
It was in Blackpool, late in the day, and he was talking about transport policy. The hall was nearly empty, he says.
Pointing out that there is a big audience today, he says: “I can only reflect that everything comes to those who wait.”
He says it was about 30 years ago when William Hague, as a teenager, gave his famous speech and pointed in Heseltine’s direction saying, “In 30 years, you won’t he here.”
Heseltine says Hague got many things right, but not that.
A little poetic licence - Hague's speech was nearer 40 years ago than 30......
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/02/conservative-conference-may-to-explain-brexit-great-repeal-bill-in-marr-interview-politics-live0 -
Yes, the Dems have an incredible GOTV operation.MikeK said:
But will the voters come out for Hillary?Alistair said:FTPT
JackW said:
No.Alistair said:Betting thought.
Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?
If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.
I don't mean as a double win, I mean as a saver on the swing state bets.
Taking NOM as a saver on my SNP Holyrood constituency bets would have seen me much happier than my all red book was.0 -
A lot of debt restructuring from the early 90's recession.619 said:Christie on the NYT bombshell: "This is actually a very, very good story for Donald Trump."
Rudy says Trump is "strategic" and "a genius" because of how he handled his taxes. #ThisWeek
ermmmm
Anyway at least Trump has stopped people talking about Miss Universe and his inclusion in a soft-core Playboy porn from the 90's.
No wonder it is rumoured that Trump leaked it himself to the paper on purpose.
But I think the N.Y.Times broke the law in releasing those tax returns.0 -
In the Panorama special on this they also made it clear that the ring leader was able to come and go and because of the shear numbers of people flowing in that the authorities just couldn't spot him.SeanT said:FPT
foxinsox claimed that all the Paris attackers were "EU citizens"
This is simply a lie. At least four jihadis associated with the attacks came from Morocco, Pakistan or Syria, and entered the EU by posing as refugees. Including the guy who blew himself up the Stade de France, starting the assault
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/05/mystery-member-of-paris-attacks-cell-only-captured-in-july-despi/0 -
Labour love playing Parliamentary games - they love to inflict defeats on a government.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be hugeLibDem_Colin said:
One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. DeludedPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?
As do the SNP.0 -
Don't rain on their multicultural parade. Free movement and defending Mrs Merkel's is a religion to these people, they won't hear a word against either.SeanT said:FPT
foxinsox claimed that all the Paris attackers were "EU citizens"
This is simply a lie. At least four jihadis associated with the attacks came from Morocco, Pakistan or Syria, and entered the EU by posing as refugees. Including the guy who blew himself up the Stade de France, starting the assault
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/05/mystery-member-of-paris-attacks-cell-only-captured-in-july-despi/0 -
Conservative peers: 254 out of 810DecrepitJohnL said:
The realpolitik is the Conservative Party has just restuffed the Lords with a Tory majority and there is no chance they are going to throw that away.SeanT said:If the Lords try to block the GRACT then the Lords will be stuffed, or abolished. It would be constitutional suicide to obstruct the will of the people, expressed in a direct vote, and with the biggest mandate in British electoral history. A vote, moreover, on the most important political change in living memory.
Do these derelict punks feel lucky? Well, do they?
It will pass.
Edit: to remove unintended rhyme.
http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/lords/composition-of-the-lords/0 -
Theresa May about to address conference on Brexit. Parliament channel + BBC and Sky0
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SNL last night ripped into Hillary for using James Brown's "I feel good' coming onto stage at a husting post the debate. Michael Che (who is black) said that "If Hillary had any black friends, she'd know that James Brown died of pneumonia"
MikeK, hope you get well soon.0 -
Why not ?GIN1138 said:
Is Hezza still bitter about things?CarlottaVance said:Hezza onstage:
Lord Heseltine is 83. He says he first addressed the Tory conference 49 years ago.
It was in Blackpool, late in the day, and he was talking about transport policy. The hall was nearly empty, he says.
Pointing out that there is a big audience today, he says: “I can only reflect that everything comes to those who wait.”
He says it was about 30 years ago when William Hague, as a teenager, gave his famous speech and pointed in Heseltine’s direction saying, “In 30 years, you won’t he here.”
Heseltine says Hague got many things right, but not that.
A little poetic licence - Hague's speech was nearer 40 years ago than 30......
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/02/conservative-conference-may-to-explain-brexit-great-repeal-bill-in-marr-interview-politics-live
He came twise very close to be PM in 1990 and 1995 and would probably had become Tory leader after 1997 if it wasn't for his heart attack.
His life plan was him becoming PM by the 1990's.0 -
Minions assemble.....Big_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May about to address conference on Brexit. Parliament channel + BBC and Sky
http://img3.rnkr-static.com/user_node_img/50045/1000885431/870/gru-has-more-minions-than-you-might-think-photo-u1.jpg0 -
I think Corbyn will allow it to pass through, though the 172 MP's will have objections as usual.LibDem_Colin said:
Labour love playing Parliamentary games - they love to inflict defeats on a government.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be hugeLibDem_Colin said:
One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. DeludedPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?
As do the SNP.0 -
First five minutes of this rips them both to shreds.MTimT said:SNL last night ripped into Hillary for using James Brown's "I feel good' coming onto stage at a husting post the debate. Michael Che (who is black) said that "If Hillary had any black friends, she'd know that James Brown died of pneumonia"
MikeK, hope you get well soon.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FO6SSdplULI0 -
I would have said that disclosure was legitimate and in the public interest. Trump is running for high office and it is an established tradition that such people disclose their financial affairs.Speedy said:
But I think the N.Y.Times broke the law in releasing those tax returns.
However, it doesn't really make much difference. We all knew or at least, strongly suspected that he minimised his taxes because he would have been stupid not to. Nobody pays more tax than they have to.
In any case, it's the paper of Jayston Blair. Publishing private accounts seems tame by comparison to him, and they got away with that for years.0 -
There's Parliamentary games and there's political suicideLibDem_Colin said:
Labour love playing Parliamentary games - they love to inflict defeats on a government.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be hugeLibDem_Colin said:
One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. DeludedPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?
As do the SNP.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Can't see another referendum prior to 2020.0 -
Please do not say that as Josias Jessop thinks it is just vengeance by LEAVErs... After all he is right about most walking matters.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be hugeLibDem_Colin said:
One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. DeludedPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?
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Of far more European interest, the Arc is soon underway at Chantilly.Big_G_NorthWales said:Theresa May about to address conference on Brexit. Parliament channel + BBC and Sky
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Iain Dale ✔ @IainDale
Something tells me this hall isn't split 52-48! #CPC160 -
Even the NYT don't really think the size of the loss he recorded isn't total pie in the sky, as they point out in the article he had $100's millions of well know losses around that time, and it is on record his quip that the homeless guy outside of Trump Tower was richer than him because he didn't owe billions.ydoethur said:
I would have said that disclosure was legitimate and in the public interest. Trump is running for high office and it is an established tradition that such people disclose their financial affairs.Speedy said:
But I think the N.Y.Times broke the law in releasing those tax returns.
However, it doesn't really make much difference. We all knew or at least, strongly suspected that he minimised his taxes because he would have been stupid not to. Nobody pays more tax than they have to.
In any case, it's the paper of Jayston Blair. Publishing private accounts seems tame by comparison to him, and they got away with that for years.0 -
Mrs May is a bit Clint Eastwood. (To Remainers) "Oh come on."0
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Contrast Mrs May with Jeremy Corbin. It is just no contest.0
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If she fires them up this much and they go outside and meet protestors I would bet on the aged members winning. The blue rinse ladies can be pretty tough.SeanT said:The Tories are having an orgasm.
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It seems it's more complex than that:SeanT said:FPT
foxinsox claimed that all the Paris attackers were "EU citizens"
This is simply a lie. At least four jihadis associated with the attacks came from Morocco, Pakistan or Syria, and entered the EU by posing as refugees. Including the guy who blew himself up the Stade de France, starting the assault
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/05/mystery-member-of-paris-attacks-cell-only-captured-in-july-despi/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34832512
Most (not all) of the attackers were EU citizens. Many of them had left the country though to fight with IS, and some possibly re-entered on false passports (presumably because they thought their real identities might be tracked).
But you are correct in that it appears the open-doors to refugees policy made the attackers' job easier, and made the security forces' work harder. It seems perfectly feasible for the UK to track people entering better than the EU have done through Merkel's Madness.
What's interesting IMO is what the government will propose wrt exit checks, which is a major chink in our defences.0 -
I think it unlikely that TM will have difficulty getting this though the commons,LibDem_Colin said:
One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. DeludedPaul_Bedfordshire said:
Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament ActBlack_Rook said:
But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of LordsLibDem_Colin said:No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.
If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?
Amusing Shin Fain and Speaker abstain, UKIP, DUP, and the 10 Labour Leave, all join the government then there would need to be 28 Tories voting Remain (or 56 Abstentions) Which would be a lot, especially as you point out, the difficulty that these MPs may have in getting reselected by a Conservative association.
Much more likely IMHO a lot of Labour MPs especially the 150 ish who have seats that voted Leave, will ether abstain or vote with the government. based on his comments the day after the referendum I think even Jeremy Corby will may vote with the government on this, but looking at his leadership skills, difficult to predict how much of his shadow cabinet or PLP will follow him.
the House of Lords is another matter: is anybody keeping or has anybody seen lists of which way Lords have indicated they will vote?0 -
Or even CorbynTCPoliticalBetting said:Contrast Mrs May with Jeremy Corbin. It is just no contest.
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A second referendum is a distinct possibility. I can envisage the situation where May is held to ransom by the Leave ultras and calls a second referendum in a 'who governs Britain?' manoeuvre. The likes of IDS won't tolerate her procrastination for much longer and will certainly move to oust her if she doesn't submit. It will be at that point that May ups the stakes and calls for Referendum II.0
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Big increase in conservative membership on the horizon0
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Has she mentioned the Colombian peace deal yet? Or winning a local council by election? ;-)SeanT said:This is good from May. Serious, sober, forceful. Exactly what is required.
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Remarkable 1-2-3 for Aidan O'Brien and Coolmore in the Arc.0
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Grown up politics - tour de force speechSeanT said:This is good from May. Serious, sober, forceful. Exactly what is required.
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A who governs Britain maneuver would be a General Election, not a Referendum redux.Stark_Dawning said:A second referendum is a distinct possibility. I can envisage the situation where May is held to ransom by the Leave ultras and calls a second referendum in a 'who governs Britain?' manoeuvre. The likes of IDS won't tolerate her procrastination for much longer and will certainly move to oust her if she doesn't submit. It will be at that point that May ups the stakes and calls for Referendum II.
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Mrs May sounding very good.0
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May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.0
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smell chuker priblemsBig_G_NorthWales said:
Or even CorbynTCPoliticalBetting said:Contrast Mrs May with Jeremy Corbin. It is just no contest.
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Interesting, May's speech writers have underestimated the amount of applause she'd get as they haven't had enough applause pauses.....0
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Sounds like we are definitely leaving the Single Market.0
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Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.0
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£10 on City at half time - 22/1.
I know my Spurs.0 -
She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.Philip_Thompson said:May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.
A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.0 -
Ask the Police Federation......maaarsh said:Has she never given a speech before?
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You must be a remoanermaaarsh said:Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.
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No, leave voter and campaigner. Doesn't make this a well delivered speech.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be a remoanermaaarsh said:Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.
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The party membership is strongly pro-Brexit, and I suspect that the pro-EU MPs were either not strongly committed to that cause and have acquiesced, or are staying away from this event. She's preaching very much to the converted this afternoon.CarlottaVance said:Interesting, May's speech writers have underestimated the amount of applause she'd get as they haven't had enough applause pauses.....
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Really powerful, positive speech from the PM about Great Britain and her place in the world.0
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Only watched snippets. Substance seems sound, but May stumbles over her words quite a bit.0
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Interesting, Mr May sitting next to Lord Feldman.....0
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Excellent speech and she will make this workmaaarsh said:
No, leave voter and campaigner. Doesn't make this a well delivered speech.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be a remoanermaaarsh said:Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.
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The youngest looking Tory conference audience I can remember.0
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As an aside, it amuses me that standing ovations from Conservatives mean both "That was super" and "We'll be assassinating you on Tuesday".0
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Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.Black_Rook said:
She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.Philip_Thompson said:May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.
A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.0 -
Excellent and encouraging content. Undeniably poor delivery for a front line politician.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excellent speech and she will make this workmaaarsh said:
No, leave voter and campaigner. Doesn't make this a well delivered speech.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be a remoanermaaarsh said:Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.
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I think she was having an attack of the grins, she seemed surprised how well it was going down on the floor.Morris_Dancer said:Only watched snippets. Substance seems sound, but May stumbles over her words quite a bit.
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Tis the way of the party.Morris_Dancer said:As an aside, it amuses me that standing ovations from Conservatives mean both "That was super" and "We'll be assassinating you on Tuesday".
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She does have a Gordon Brown-like tendency to pull weird facial expressions when she's taking a pause for breath.Indigo said:
I think she was having an attack of the grins, she seemed surprised how well it was going down on the floor.Morris_Dancer said:Only watched snippets. Substance seems sound, but May stumbles over her words quite a bit.
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Europe has been a festering wound in the party for three decades now. A clean amputation will end that.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.Black_Rook said:
She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.Philip_Thompson said:May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.
A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.0 -
I think she was thrown by the applause - more than anticipated...SeanT said:Slightly blew her last lines. That was a powerfully simple speech, however.
Good 'steady the ship' speech - gets the conference off to a strong start....
Interestingly Davis repeating the 'four countries of the United Kingdom'....0 -
Or possibly it matches her own point of view, see the delight with which she ditched Osborne. People talk about her folly in putting Boris, Davis and Fox in those jobs, they might want to consider they got those jobs because she shares their views, even if she keeps it rather quiet.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.Black_Rook said:
She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.Philip_Thompson said:May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.
A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.0 -
I think she's decided that there's no point being half pregnant. Brexit means Brexit may actually mean something.Indigo said:
Or possibly it matches her own point of view, see the delight with which she ditched Osborne. People talk about her folly in putting Boris, Davis and Fox in those jobs, they might want to consider they got those jobs because she shares their views, even if she keeps it rather quiet.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.Black_Rook said:
She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.Philip_Thompson said:May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.
A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.0 -
With hindsight (a wonderful thing, as always) it was a choice between staying in the EU and hard Brexit all along. There was no way that any post-Brexit Govt could accept the continued free movement of people, and no way that the EU would waive this requirement whilst allowing us to stay in the single market.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.Black_Rook said:
She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.Philip_Thompson said:May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.
A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.0 -
After deep scepticism, May has convinced me with that speech. No autocue either.
I'm almost back in Tory fold.0 -
Of course, they will. Some people offer opinion here in PB without thinking.justin124 said:
But it might also give quite a few of them quite an incentive to scupper the boundary changes!TCPoliticalBetting said:
One of the benefits of the boundary review is that many of the Remainer MPs have to keep a little eye on the likely way that the boundaries go and their support within their local Executive under new boundaries. Causing too much trouble for Mrs May could cause local deselections. Osborne himself may have to find a new association and the word I hear is that his current association is full of LEAVErs. Where they go in the new boundaries is the question. Can for example Ken Clarke guarantee a home for Soubry?OldKingCole said:
One of the saving graces of the Leave vote was the political demise of Osborne. Front bench-wise anyway! Now, if we could only persuade Martin Bell to stand for Tatton again.........glw said:
I'd be amazed if the public believed it. The best thing Osborne can do is leave parliament.FrankBooth said:I think the reinvention of George Osborne from scheming Machiavellian to principled backbencher will be more fascinating than bruiser Balls turned prime time dancer. I'd guess the public will be less likely to buy it though.
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Welcome home Plato (hopefully)PlatoSaid said:After deep scepticism, May has convinced me with that speech. No autocue either.
I'm almost back in Tory fold.0 -
@LordAshcroft:
Theresa May has set the right tone for Brexit...powerful opening speech..not much for Davis Boris etc to add...0
