There are other ways Hamilton can get the title. A Rosberg DNF is most obvious, but if the Red Bulls gets ahead of Rosberg it makes Hamilton's job substantially easier.
Chrisg0000 Boris Johnson has just made a speech about liberalism that no libdem has made for a century. Brilliant.
Lib Dems seem scared of expressing liberal views anymore. They think neoliberalism is a bad thing despite Gladstone being an early exponent. Time for a name change by the libdems?
Mr. Sandpit, think you may've misread my post on the odds.
Mr. Evershed, I remain unconvinced that "The electorate can't be trusted" is a good line for a party in a democracy to take. But there we are.
Ah okay, you mean the odds are the same on LB and BF, rather than that the two drivers are equally priced on the former. Ladbrokes is blocked for me so can't check right now.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
*Momentum conference should give the left hope *Corbyn shows extraordinary bravery standing up for immigrants *Unite chief: British media must be taken over and defeated *Rachel Reeves' comments on immigration could encourage hate attacks *Living wage 'a disaster' for low paid workers (written by the president of the Corbyn-backing Bakers' Union) *Opposition to the Canada-EU trade deal has reached a tipping point *Surge of religious influence in our education system (by the British Humanist Association)
This is only a slightly edited highlights package. Going to that site looking for a positive slant on a Tory conference speech would be rather like expecting Conservative Home to sing the praises of John McDonnell.
Politics.home is a home for leftie Labour supporters. Ian Dunt is very depressed these days because of the state of the Labour party.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
Chrisg0000 Boris Johnson has just made a speech about liberalism that no libdem has made for a century. Brilliant.
Lib Dems seem scared of expressing liberal views anymore. They think neoliberalism is a bad thing despite Gladstone being an early exponent. Time for a name change by the libdems?
I'm not too sure how much of Boris's speech was about liberalism in all honesty. Throwing around terms like "liberal democracy" in terms of supporting the invasion of Iraq as an example.
Boris is confusing liberal democracy with the neo-Conservatism of the Blair years so strongly supported by IDS and many other Conservatives at the time.
Liberal Democrats (and many others) opposed the Iraq intervention. In the same way, the financial crash of 2008 was less the failure of capitalism per se but the failure of the way it was promulgated and supported by Governments and financial institutions.
It will be interesting to see if, by way of devolving further powers from Westminster to local Government or perhaps changes to economic policy, we will see as truly liberal side to the May Government or whether they will relapse into the traditional centralising paternalist governance of Conservative Governments of old.
If the Lords try to block the GRACT then the Lords will be stuffed, or abolished. It would be constitutional suicide to obstruct the will of the people, expressed in a direct vote, and with the biggest mandate in British electoral history. A vote, moreover, on the most important political change in living memory.
Do these derelict punks feel lucky? Well, do they?
It will pass.
The realpolitik is the Conservative Party has just restuffed the Lords with a Tory majority and there is no chance they are going to throw that away.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
If the Lords try to block the GRACT then the Lords will be stuffed, or abolished. It would be constitutional suicide to obstruct the will of the people, expressed in a direct vote, and with the biggest mandate in British electoral history. A vote, moreover, on the most important political change in living memory.
Do these derelict punks feel lucky? Well, do they?
It will pass.
The realpolitik is the Conservative Party has just restuffed the Lords with a Tory majority and there is no chance they are going to throw that away.
At current rate of progress, it would take at least another 20 years for the Conservatives to build a simple majority in the Upper House. In any event, it has categorically not been "just restuffed... with a Tory majority" as you previously claimed. That's demonstrably, factually wrong.
One thing's for certain: Cameron and the liberal wing of the Tory party will be broken and humiliated. Everything they ever stood for has been annihilated by May's grovelling capitulation to the hard right. Let's face it, she might as well have produced a giant statue of Farage and invited us all to bow before it.
Erm, May was a reformer before Cameron took over. I've got my one nation centrist party back from Osbornian interventions.....
Absolutely. A great speech from Mrs May, and followed by another from David Davis.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
Yes. At which point Scotland would have to apply to join the EU as a new entrant, not keeping any of the UK's existing opt outs as a successor nation or whatever that stupid idea was.
Anyway, as I see it the appetite for Sindy is gone. Obviously anecdotal, but judging from a a Scottish cousin who campaigned for Indy and Remain now not convinced by Indy and a SLAB unionist/remain colleague who initially backed Indy after the vote going back to his default position once the shock wore off. I think there are enough enough unionist/remain voters who aren't moved by the EU and would back No in a second referendum. That's why Nicola isn't going to even bother trying to get one.
Up to your usual abysmal standards. Given you know hee haw about Scotland I suggest you stick to spouting Tory propaganda
I don't of course share the wide eyed open mouthed admiration for the Prime Minister's words. It's entirely what you would expect and frankly the same speech she made on the day she entered No.10 as Prime Minister.
The Brexit line seems to be some naive assumption we will be having our cake and eating it too - perhaps May is hoping changes in Government in Paris and Berlin next year will bring more accommodating forces into play but if Juppe and Merkel emerge as the new Franco-German pairing, it's hard to see how the EU won't play anything other than hardball and May did acknowledge the possibility.
I think we are being prepared to accept some setbacks on trading within the Single Market in exchange for some form of immigration control though all very vague.
The repeal of the ECA is the necessary legal prerequisite for A50 and the new settlement post-EU so it's much less significant than some on here claimed.
I certainly agree we don't want or need second votes - the 2020 GE is in effect that vote - and I certainly don't support those seeking to undermine the result of 23/6 by legal means.
On topic: I'm in Paris and didn't see the speech. However it seems as if May has surrendered one of her supposed bargaining chips, ie the timing of an Article 50 activation.
That - hopefully? - means she has a cunning plan in place. The clock is now ticking and as others have noted previously, the default is WTO only and the destruction of our financial, auto, and other exporting industries.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
No it wouldn't. There's no natural right to have independence referendum after referendum.
The Scots had their chance. They fluffed it.
Just to be clear, you think if Holyrood passed a bill for a second IndyRef that May would not consent for it to go ahead?
Despite the Kelvin report very saying a future independence referendum should be the decision of the Scottish people?
Yes.
You can't play this constitutional Hokey Cokey. I have my grave doubts about the appropriateness of the last referendum - which disenfranchised a ton of Scots blamelessly living outside of Scotland - let alone another one.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
No it wouldn't. There's no natural right to have independence referendum after referendum.
The Scots had their chance. They fluffed it.
Just to be clear, you think if Holyrood passed a bill for a second IndyRef that May would not consent for it to go ahead?
Despite the Kelvin report very saying a future independence referendum should be the decision of the Scottish people?
Yes.
You can't play this constitutional Hokey Cokey. I have my grave doubts about the appropriateness of the last referendum - which disenfranchised a ton of Scots blamelessly living outside of Scotland - let alone another one.
If they force the issue it will be a landslide and even th eTories could not ignore an overwhelming democratic vote to get out from under the jackboot.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
There is no reason to ban it, the SNP would lose the second one as much as the first one.
That's the reason why the SNP has not called for a second one, because of the fear of what happens if they lose it.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
No it wouldn't. There's no natural right to have independence referendum after referendum.
The Scots had their chance. They fluffed it.
Just to be clear, you think if Holyrood passed a bill for a second IndyRef that May would not consent for it to go ahead?
Despite the Kelvin report very saying a future independence referendum should be the decision of the Scottish people?
Yes.
You can't play this constitutional Hokey Cokey. I have my grave doubts about the appropriateness of the last referendum - which disenfranchised a ton of Scots blamelessly living outside of Scotland - let alone another one.
If they force the issue it will be a landslide and even th eTories could not ignore an overwhelming democratic vote to get out from under the jackboot.
Jackboot?
I'm afraid you've caught Ashdown-itis. Regrettably, it is terminal.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
There is no reason to ban it, the SNP would lose the second one as much as the first one.
That's the reason why the SNP has not called for a second one, because of the fear of what happens if they lose it.
We shall see what happens when the UK is circling the drain after article 50 is announced and teh fantasy settlement vanishes
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
There is no reason to ban it, the SNP would lose the second one as much as the first one.
That's the reason why the SNP has not called for a second one, because of the fear of what happens if they lose it.
Here's an idea - why doesn't the SNP get on with governing Scotland instead of obsessing over constitutional matters?
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
There is no reason to ban it, the SNP would lose the second one as much as the first one.
That's the reason why the SNP has not called for a second one, because of the fear of what happens if they lose it.
Dear dear the frothers are coming out of the woodwork
On topic: I'm in Paris and didn't see the speech. However it seems as if May has surrendered one of her supposed bargaining chips, ie the timing of an Article 50 activation.
That - hopefully? - means she has a cunning plan in place. The clock is now ticking and as others have noted previously, the default is WTO only and the destruction of our financial, auto, and other exporting industries.
I do hope she knows what she's doing.
Clearly the bullying pronouncements of IDS and co. - that anything short of immediate and absolute Brexit is tantamount to treason - spooked May and caused her to flap. May is starting to look pliable and weak and wholly beneath the boot of Farage, UKIP and the Tory hard right.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
There is no reason to ban it, the SNP would lose the second one as much as the first one.
That's the reason why the SNP has not called for a second one, because of the fear of what happens if they lose it.
We shall see what happens when the UK is circling the drain after article 50 is announced and teh fantasy settlement vanishes
I'm neither expecting drain circuling nor a settlement.
Sturgeon doesn't want to replicate the fate of Salmond and Cameron by calling a referendum that she might lose, it's that simple.
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
There is no reason to ban it, the SNP would lose the second one as much as the first one.
That's the reason why the SNP has not called for a second one, because of the fear of what happens if they lose it.
Here's an idea - why doesn't the SNP get on with governing Scotland instead of obsessing over constitutional matters?
...Like IDS in a kilt.
You could say the same about the Conservatives and the UK ... No doubt David Cameron did say the same.
Theresa May's speech today gave the immediate answers on A50, the legal process of leaving and taking back contol of our borders.
Later in the week she will enhance workers rights, take in hand board room excesses and put a sympathetic tone into benefits. No doubt she will go further to the centre in other matters.
It does make you wonder how labour mps must be feeling today after their recent disasters and the prospect of some of them, indeed many of them, ever being in Parliament again after 2020
Long years of grinding opposition await those Lab MPs with, say, a 10% majority or more. The rest will be joining their erstwhile Scottish cousins on the job market come May 2020.
So you are predicting a Tory lead of at least 17% in 2020?
The lunatics at the Tory conference applauded all of this. They cheered the Union, even as May announced the greatest strain she could possibly impose on it. They cheered when a speaker mentioned Gibraltar, even though it was now at risk like never before. They cheered dreams of British economic greatness, which are now in jeopardy precisely because of the policy they were jubilant about.
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
There is no reason to ban it, the SNP would lose the second one as much as the first one.
That's the reason why the SNP has not called for a second one, because of the fear of what happens if they lose it.
Here's an idea - why doesn't the SNP get on with governing Scotland instead of obsessing over constitutional matters?
...Like IDS in a kilt.
Perhaps they are only good at obsessing over constitutional matters... *innocent face*
He's one of the ultra-Remainers who actively hates Britain and Britishness. I'm glad he's depressed.
The tyson of journalists.
He's right though, at least about the strain on the Union.
IMO, Brexit strengthens the Union, because it raises the cost of leaving it.
Hard Brexit makes Sindy, economically, almost impossible, on so many levels. Though the Scots might still be minded to risk it. Who knows.
Change is in the air.
Yes, which is why I don't rule out Sindy. Scots might just think "fuck it", like the Brits did.
Interestingly, May seemed to rule out a Sindyref2 before Brexit is finalised and delivered. So Sturgeon might have to wait til 2020 if she wants another go.
she will never dare ban a referendum, it would mean certain independence.
There is no reason to ban it, the SNP would lose the second one as much as the first one.
That's the reason why the SNP has not called for a second one, because of the fear of what happens if they lose it.
Here's an idea - why doesn't the SNP get on with governing Scotland instead of obsessing over constitutional matters?
...Like IDS in a kilt.
You could say the same about the Conservatives and the UK ... No doubt David Cameron did say the same.
Yes. He was bang on. Too bad he didn't follow through.
I have my grave doubts about the appropriateness of the last referendum - which disenfranchised a ton of Scots blamelessly living outside of Scotland - let alone another one.
The question was for the people of Scotland not ethnic Scots. It's kind of the whole difference between civic and blood & soil nationalism.
off topic - did anybody read this Martin Wolf column on how weak, flawed and deeply third-rate the British economy really is, even without Brexit, despite all the "we are a great country and can achieve so much as a free trading nation" backslapping and self-congratulation? Personally, when I assess the median skill level and work ethic of UK citizens, I feel the next few years could be very, very tough...the last thing we need is all the clever Frogs and international money launderers/global elite packing up their bags and rotating to a different new tax haven...
Economic ills of the UK extend well beyond Brexit:
"The UK, then, has low unemployment. But it also has high inequality, mediocre real incomes, at least by the standards of its European peers, and poor external competitiveness. Above all, recent productivity growth has been truly awful... "The implications of a realistic view of the UK economy is that, even without the looming shock of Brexit, the economy suffers from big weaknesses relative to the European economies that many Brexiters despise... "The UK has to rectify longstanding supply-side failings. The list includes: low investment, particularly in infrastructure; inadequate basic education of much of the population and the innumeracy of much of its elite; a grossly distorted housing market; over-centralisation of government; and a corporate sector whose leaders are motivated more by the share price than by the long-term health of the business. Not surprisingly, given all this, the UK economy is highly dependent on inward foreign direct investment, which Brexit would seem virtually certain to weaken... "If the UK is to thrive economically, it will not be enough for it to manage Brexit, hard though that will surely be. Its policymakers must also start from a realistic assessment of the UK’s mediocre performance. This is no world-beating economy. It is not even a Europe-beating economy, except on creating what are too often low-wage jobs."
I have my grave doubts about the appropriateness of the last referendum - which disenfranchised a ton of Scots blamelessly living outside of Scotland - let alone another one.
The question was for the people of Scotland not ethnic Scots. It's kind of the whole difference between civic and blood & soil nationalism.
What garbage. Imagine if you went to work in another country, and then woke up one morning and your country was "gone".
off topic - did anybody read this Martin Wolf column on how weak, flawed and deeply third-rate the British economy really is, even without Brexit, despite all the "we are a great country and can achieve so much as a free trading nation" backslapping and self-congratulation? Personally, when I assess the median skill level and work ethic of UK citizens, I feel the next few years could be very, very tough...the last thing we need is all the clever Frogs and international money launderers/global elite packing up their bags and rotating to a different new tax haven...
Economic ills of the UK extend well beyond Brexit:
"The UK, then, has low unemployment. But it also has high inequality, mediocre real incomes, at least by the standards of its European peers, and poor external competitiveness. Above all, recent productivity growth has been truly awful... "The implications of a realistic view of the UK economy is that, even without the looming shock of Brexit, the economy suffers from big weaknesses relative to the European economies that many Brexiters despise... "The UK has to rectify longstanding supply-side failings. The list includes: low investment, particularly in infrastructure; inadequate basic education of much of the population and the innumeracy of much of its elite; a grossly distorted housing market; over-centralisation of government; and a corporate sector whose leaders are motivated more by the share price than by the long-term health of the business. Not surprisingly, given all this, the UK economy is highly dependent on inward foreign direct investment, which Brexit would seem virtually certain to weaken... "If the UK is to thrive economically, it will not be enough for it to manage Brexit, hard though that will surely be. Its policymakers must also start from a realistic assessment of the UK’s mediocre performance. This is no world-beating economy. It is not even a Europe-beating economy, except on creating what are too often low-wage jobs."
Yes I read it, and he is correct. We fool ourselves ourselves it's not so because of the amazing, undeniable, world beating success of London over the past 20 years.
off topic - did anybody read this Martin Wolf column on how weak, flawed and deeply third-rate the British economy really is, even without Brexit, despite all the "we are a great country and can achieve so much as a free trading nation" backslapping and self-congratulation? Personally, when I assess the median skill level and work ethic of UK citizens, I feel the next few years could be very, very tough...the last thing we need is all the clever Frogs and international money launderers/global elite packing up their bags and rotating to a different new tax haven...
Economic ills of the UK extend well beyond Brexit:
"The UK, then, has low unemployment. But it also has high inequality, mediocre real incomes, at least by the standards of its European peers, and poor external competitiveness. Above all, recent productivity growth has been truly awful... "The implications of a realistic view of the UK economy is that, even without the looming shock of Brexit, the economy suffers from big weaknesses relative to the European economies that many Brexiters despise... "The UK has to rectify longstanding supply-side failings. The list includes: low investment, particularly in infrastructure; inadequate basic education of much of the population and the innumeracy of much of its elite; a grossly distorted housing market; over-centralisation of government; and a corporate sector whose leaders are motivated more by the share price than by the long-term health of the business. Not surprisingly, given all this, the UK economy is highly dependent on inward foreign direct investment, which Brexit would seem virtually certain to weaken... "If the UK is to thrive economically, it will not be enough for it to manage Brexit, hard though that will surely be. Its policymakers must also start from a realistic assessment of the UK’s mediocre performance. This is no world-beating economy. It is not even a Europe-beating economy, except on creating what are too often low-wage jobs."
I'm writing a piece called "You look too healthy to be sick" about the UK economy saying quite similar things.
I have my grave doubts about the appropriateness of the last referendum - which disenfranchised a ton of Scots blamelessly living outside of Scotland - let alone another one.
The question was for the people of Scotland not ethnic Scots. It's kind of the whole difference between civic and blood & soil nationalism.
What garbage. Imagine if you went to work in another country, and then woke up one morning and your country was "gone".
Presumably you'll be reserving your ire for Cameron who made such a pish job (or more likely didn't bother) of fighting for the rights of those poor, disenfranchised economic migrants/expats during the pre Edinburgh Agreement negotiations?
off topic - did anybody read this Martin Wolf column on how weak, flawed and deeply third-rate the British economy really is, even without Brexit, despite all the "we are a great country and can achieve so much as a free trading nation" backslapping and self-congratulation? Personally, when I assess the median skill level and work ethic of UK citizens, I feel the next few years could be very, very tough...the last thing we need is all the clever Frogs and international money launderers/global elite packing up their bags and rotating to a different new tax haven...
Economic ills of the UK extend well beyond Brexit:
"The UK, then, has low unemployment. But it also has high inequality, mediocre real incomes, at least by the standards of its European peers, and poor external competitiveness. Above all, recent productivity growth has been truly awful... "The implications of a realistic view of the UK economy is that, even without the looming shock of Brexit, the economy suffers from big weaknesses relative to the European economies that many Brexiters despise... "The UK has to rectify longstanding supply-side failings. The list includes: low investment, particularly in infrastructure; inadequate basic education of much of the population and the innumeracy of much of its elite; a grossly distorted housing market; over-centralisation of government; and a corporate sector whose leaders are motivated more by the share price than by the long-term health of the business. Not surprisingly, given all this, the UK economy is highly dependent on inward foreign direct investment, which Brexit would seem virtually certain to weaken... "If the UK is to thrive economically, it will not be enough for it to manage Brexit, hard though that will surely be. Its policymakers must also start from a realistic assessment of the UK’s mediocre performance. This is no world-beating economy. It is not even a Europe-beating economy, except on creating what are too often low-wage jobs."
The UK has economic problems, but our standard of living is similar to that of France, Japan, and Finland, which is far from disastrous.
Well we now have a plan and know an outline sketch of Brexit. And May has a double mandate for it. Firstly " Leave " could have meant anything but people voted for it anyway. Second the Corbyn Black Hole, sucking even light into it , offers a sort of negative mandate. No one can construct an alternative mandate under FPTP giving May one by default. The perceptive John Harris referencing Disaster Capitalism is chilling but I fear correct.
I have my grave doubts about the appropriateness of the last referendum - which disenfranchised a ton of Scots blamelessly living outside of Scotland - let alone another one.
The question was for the people of Scotland not ethnic Scots. It's kind of the whole difference between civic and blood & soil nationalism.
What garbage. Imagine if you went to work in another country, and then woke up one morning and your country was "gone".
The theory goes that once we bin EU immigration, UK industry will have to improve productivity because we won't have a continual flow of cheap labour which provides a disincentive to invest in new (productivity-increasing) plant and machinery.
So more expensive factor production costs and a need to increase capital expenditure.
Clearly the bullying pronouncements of IDS and co. - that anything short of immediate and absolute Brexit is tantamount to treason - spooked May and caused her to flap. May is starting to look pliable and weak and wholly beneath the boot of Farage, UKIP and the Tory hard right.
The "hard right," eh...? In which case, where did all the stuff about leaving workers' rights alone (which we were told by Labour would be the first thing to be chucked on the bonfire in the event of a Leave vote) come from? And nor is she bending to the will of the Leave ultras on A50? A lot of them believe in the absolute right of Parliament to withdraw simply by passing legislation, and that our Lisbon Treaty obligations need not necessarily be met to begin with.
If May botches Brexit then the first neck on the chopping block won't be that of Boris Johnson or David Davis, it will be hers. It's overwhelmingly in her interest to get this right. It's also erroneous to think of the Prime Minister as being sat at her desk at No.10 with a pen and paper, making up a plan on her own: the Civil Service is very capable and will have been running hither and thither practically since the moment the result was announced, organising working groups and thinking through all the practicalities. If reports are to be believed, they are already on to the finer points: the second item on the front of the FT one day last week was all about which items in the European Commission's property portfolio, art collection and wine cellar the Government was preparing to demand.
There'll be some sort of mutually acceptable compromise with the rest of the EU, and the deficiencies therein can largely be compensated for by the repeal of some of the more burdensome EU regulations, and by targeted tax cuts. The fallout from the withdrawal process is likely to be anywhere from fairly negligible to moderately bad, in any event not a catastrophe. Remember, even the bottom of the range of the most pessimistic scenarios projected by the most pessimistic economists prior to the referendum (no agreement at all and withdrawal to WTO rules) suggested a potential loss of GDP of about 9.5% by 2030, relative to what would've been expected if we had done nothing.
This would equate to about two-thirds of one percent of lost growth per year, it is unlikely to get that bad, and insofar as I am aware none of these projections took any account of the positive impact of future trade deals which the UK might be able to make with other nations on its own account once out of the EU.
Theresa May has her party well under control. And I would suggest that, if Ukip is going to give anyone trouble going forward, it is most likely to be the Labour Party.
I have my grave doubts about the appropriateness of the last referendum - which disenfranchised a ton of Scots blamelessly living outside of Scotland - let alone another one.
The question was for the people of Scotland not ethnic Scots. It's kind of the whole difference between civic and blood & soil nationalism.
What garbage. Imagine if you went to work in another country, and then woke up one morning and your country was "gone".
Presumably you'll be reserving your ire for Cameron who made such a pish job (or more likely didn't bother) of fighting for the rights of those poor, disenfranchised economic migrants/expats during the pre Edinburgh Agreement negotiations?
Yes.
There's a meme that Cameron thought he could breeze thru the Euro ref because he'd won the Scots ref.
But he nearly lost the Scots ref, due to laziness, complacency and stupidity.
off topic - did anybody read this Martin Wolf column on how weak, flawed and deeply third-rate the British economy really is, even without Brexit, despite all the "we are a great country and can achieve so much as a free trading nation" backslapping and self-congratulation? Personally, when I assess the median skill level and work ethic of UK citizens, I feel the next few years could be very, very tough...the last thing we need is all the clever Frogs and international money launderers/global elite packing up their bags and rotating to a different new tax haven...
Economic ills of the UK extend well beyond Brexit:
"The UK has to rectify longstanding supply-side failings. The list includes: low investment, particularly in infrastructure; inadequate basic education of much of the population and the innumeracy of much of its elite; a grossly distorted housing market; over-centralisation of government; and a corporate sector whose leaders are motivated more by the share price than by the long-term health of the business. Not surprisingly, given all this, the UK economy is highly dependent on inward foreign direct investment, which Brexit would seem virtually certain to weaken... "If the UK is to thrive economically, it will not be enough for it to manage Brexit, hard though that will surely be. Its policymakers must also start from a realistic assessment of the UK’s mediocre performance. This is no world-beating economy. It is not even a Europe-beating economy, except on creating what are too often low-wage jobs."
Yes I read it, and he is correct. We fool ourselves ourselves it's not so because of the amazing, undeniable, world beating success of London over the past 20 years.
But the rest - not so much.
But isn't this, ironically, the very same argument used by hardcore Brexiteers? - membership has made UK industry and business lazy - able to rely on an endless flood of cheap migrants. So productivity is stagnant.
I've also heard Remainers (of which Wolf is one) use exactly the opposite argument: the UK has prospered mightily since we joined, we're the fasting growing big European economy, we cannot risk this by Leaving.
Which is it?
I do agree that London is our outstanding success story. Let's hope Brexit doesn't fuck it up. It is possible Brexit will make it better. Who the hell knows. Time to be alive, etc.
Aptly put. I'd argue EU membership is an inelegant attempt to square the circle. It allows London to sublime into the Globosphere. London as Metatropolis. While keeping in place subsidised fragments of the pre '79 settlement in Leaverstan. Which is what's fascinating. Has Leaverstan detonated it's prison walls as it thinks ? Or it's remaining foundations ? I think the later but that doesn't matter now. We'll know soon enough.
On topic: I'm in Paris and didn't see the speech. However it seems as if May has surrendered one of her supposed bargaining chips, ie the timing of an Article 50 activation.
That - hopefully? - means she has a cunning plan in place. The clock is now ticking and as others have noted previously, the default is WTO only and the destruction of our financial, auto, and other exporting industries.
I do hope she knows what she's doing.
Clearly the bullying pronouncements of IDS and co. - that anything short of immediate and absolute Brexit is tantamount to treason - spooked May and caused her to flap. May is starting to look pliable and weak and wholly beneath the boot of Farage, UKIP and the Tory hard right.
The description John Major applied to Sir Richard Body is appearing rather apt for you at the moment with all this pointless hyperbole on the basis of no evidence whatsoever.
Perhaps it is the Sunday evening pre-ironing euphoria setting in but the last time I detected a mood like this was in in 1981. The oh, so clever, great and the good were so convinced Margaret Thatcher was going to to fall on her face. She was so obviously wrong, every one who was anyone agreed. She would clearly lose the next election and normal service would be resumed.
I don't think TM is talking to the likes of the denizens of this site, I am not convinced she has today been trying to to talk primarily to the people in the hall. Her message is, perhaps aimed much wider.
I could be completely wrong, I probably am completely wrong, but I think TM will go down as a great PM.
off topic - did anybody read this Martin Wolf column on how weak, flawed and deeply third-rate the British economy really is, even without Brexit, despite all the "we are a great country and can achieve so much as a free trading nation" backslapping and self-congratulation? Personally, when I assess the median skill level and work ethic of UK citizens, I feel the next few years could be very, very tough...the last thing we need is all the clever Frogs and international money launderers/global elite packing up their bags and rotating to a different new tax haven...
Economic ills of the UK extend well beyond Brexit:
"The UK, then, has low unemployment. But it also has high inequality, mediocre real incomes, at least by the standards of its European peers, and poor external competitiveness. Above all, recent productivity growth has been truly awful... "The implications of a realistic view of the UK economy is that, even without the looming shock of Brexit, the economy suffers from big weaknesses relative to the European economies that many Brexiters despise... "The UK has to rectify longstanding supply-side failings. The list includes: low investment, particularly in infrastructure; inadequate basic educationn all this, the UK economy is highly dependent on inward foreign direct investment, which Brexit would seem virtually certain to weaken... "If the UK is to thrive economically, it will not be enough for it to manage Brexit, hard though that will surely be. Its policymakers must also start from a realistic assessment of the UK’s mediocre performance. This is no world-beating economy. It is not even a Europe-beating economy, except on creating what are too often low-wage jobs."
Yes I read it, and he is correct. We fool ourselves ourselves it's not so because of the amazing, undeniable, world beating success of London over the past 20 years.
But the rest - not so much.
But isn't this, ironically, the very same argument used by hardcore Brexiteers? - membership has made UK industry and business lazy - able to rely on an endless flood of cheap migrants. So productivity is stagnant.
I've also heard Remainers (of which Wolf is one) use exactly the opposite argument: the UK has prospered mightily since we joined, we're the fasting growing big European economy, we cannot risk this by Leaving.
Which is it?
I do agree that London is our outstanding success story. Let's hope Brexit doesn't fuck it up. It is possible Brexit will make it better. Who the hell knows. Time to be alive, etc.
British business was not thriving and on fire before we joined the EU. We have consistently failed to take advantage of the opportunities out there. Can't see Brexit changing that.
Comments
Mr. Evershed, I remain unconvinced that "The electorate can't be trusted" is a good line for a party in a democracy to take. But there we are.
ABQ Journal Poll (New Mexico) Clinton 35% Trump 31% Johnson 24% Stein 2%
Ian Dunt @IanDunt 1h1 hour ago
Theresa May just made one of the most disastrous speeches in British political history http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/10/02/may-speech-makes-it-clear-we-re-leaving-the-single-market …
Mr Evershed agrees with Mr Dancer.
Jeremy 4 PM
#StandByMcDonnell
Our very own @PplsChancellor @johnmcdonnellMP has done such an amazing job in transforming Labour into Anti austerity https://t.co/ltKVe91vuL
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3817793/DAN-HODGES-isn-t-just-leader-s-speech-change-country-generations-Welcome-DAY-ONE-Millennium.html
Boris is confusing liberal democracy with the neo-Conservatism of the Blair years so strongly supported by IDS and many other Conservatives at the time.
Liberal Democrats (and many others) opposed the Iraq intervention. In the same way, the financial crash of 2008 was less the failure of capitalism per se but the failure of the way it was promulgated and supported by Governments and financial institutions.
It will be interesting to see if, by way of devolving further powers from Westminster to local Government or perhaps changes to economic policy, we will see as truly liberal side to the May Government or whether they will relapse into the traditional centralising paternalist governance of Conservative Governments of old.
New peers in the last 18 months: 9 Labour, 45 Conservative.
http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/lords/new-lords/
More like clean Brexit versus dirty Brexit.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/01/pentagon-paid-for-fake-al-qaeda-videos.html
Theresa May's speech this afternoon is the speech many of us have hoped for decades to hear a Prime Minister to make.
Yup
1) If Brexit turns out to be a success, we'll hold hands up and admit our error
or
2) If not, we'll be there laughing and pointing at the Leavers, and being all smug
https://twitter.com/paddyashdown/status/782626142247350272
Always worth bearing this in mind.
At current rate of progress, it would take at least another 20 years for the Conservatives to build a simple majority in the Upper House. In any event, it has categorically not been "just restuffed... with a Tory majority" as you previously claimed. That's demonstrably, factually wrong.
There's no natural right to have independence referendum after referendum.
The Scots had their chance. They fluffed it.
This March Article 50 thing is perfect timing for a May general election.
I don't of course share the wide eyed open mouthed admiration for the Prime Minister's words. It's entirely what you would expect and frankly the same speech she made on the day she entered No.10 as Prime Minister.
The Brexit line seems to be some naive assumption we will be having our cake and eating it too - perhaps May is hoping changes in Government in Paris and Berlin next year will bring more accommodating forces into play but if Juppe and Merkel emerge as the new Franco-German pairing, it's hard to see how the EU won't play anything other than hardball and May did acknowledge the possibility.
I think we are being prepared to accept some setbacks on trading within the Single Market in exchange for some form of immigration control though all very vague.
The repeal of the ECA is the necessary legal prerequisite for A50 and the new settlement post-EU so it's much less significant than some on here claimed.
I certainly agree we don't want or need second votes - the 2020 GE is in effect that vote - and I certainly don't support those seeking to undermine the result of 23/6 by legal means.
Despite the Kelvin report very saying a future independence referendum should be the decision of the Scottish people?
However it seems as if May has surrendered one of her supposed bargaining chips, ie the timing of an Article 50 activation.
That - hopefully? - means she has a cunning plan in place. The clock is now ticking and as others have noted previously, the default is WTO only and the destruction of our financial, auto, and other exporting industries.
I do hope she knows what she's doing.
You can't play this constitutional Hokey Cokey.
I have my grave doubts about the appropriateness of the last referendum - which disenfranchised a ton of Scots blamelessly living outside of Scotland - let alone another one.
That's the reason why the SNP has not called for a second one, because of the fear of what happens if they lose it.
I'm afraid you've caught Ashdown-itis. Regrettably, it is terminal.
...Like IDS in a kilt.
https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/782628617830424576
I must be off, but if you missed it, my post-race ramble is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/malaysia-post-race-analysis-2016.html
Sturgeon doesn't want to replicate the fate of Salmond and Cameron by calling a referendum that she might lose, it's that simple.
But last I heard, Scotland had more autonomy than almost any other sub-national entity on earth. So use it!
Economic ills of the UK extend well beyond Brexit:
"The UK, then, has low unemployment. But it also has high inequality, mediocre real incomes, at least by the standards of its European peers, and poor external competitiveness. Above all, recent productivity growth has been truly awful...
"The implications of a realistic view of the UK economy is that, even without the looming shock of Brexit, the economy suffers from big weaknesses relative to the European economies that many Brexiters despise...
"The UK has to rectify longstanding supply-side failings. The list includes: low investment, particularly in infrastructure; inadequate basic education of much of the population and the innumeracy of much of its elite; a grossly distorted housing market; over-centralisation of government; and a corporate sector whose leaders are motivated more by the share price than by the long-term health of the business. Not surprisingly, given all this, the UK economy is highly dependent on inward foreign direct investment, which Brexit would seem virtually certain to weaken...
"If the UK is to thrive economically, it will not be enough for it to manage Brexit, hard though that will surely be. Its policymakers must also start from a realistic assessment of the UK’s mediocre performance. This is no world-beating economy. It is not even a Europe-beating economy, except on creating what are too often low-wage jobs."
Imagine if you went to work in another country, and then woke up one morning and your country was "gone".
We fool ourselves ourselves it's not so because of the amazing, undeniable, world beating success of London over the past 20 years.
But the rest - not so much.
Vintage plane believed to have crashed in Norfolk:
http://news.sky.com/story/one-dead-in-plane-crash-near-bungay-in-norfolk-10603312
The theory goes that once we bin EU immigration, UK industry will have to improve productivity because we won't have a continual flow of cheap labour which provides a disincentive to invest in new (productivity-increasing) plant and machinery.
So more expensive factor production costs and a need to increase capital expenditure.
It's a bold theory, for sure.
If May botches Brexit then the first neck on the chopping block won't be that of Boris Johnson or David Davis, it will be hers. It's overwhelmingly in her interest to get this right. It's also erroneous to think of the Prime Minister as being sat at her desk at No.10 with a pen and paper, making up a plan on her own: the Civil Service is very capable and will have been running hither and thither practically since the moment the result was announced, organising working groups and thinking through all the practicalities. If reports are to be believed, they are already on to the finer points: the second item on the front of the FT one day last week was all about which items in the European Commission's property portfolio, art collection and wine cellar the Government was preparing to demand.
There'll be some sort of mutually acceptable compromise with the rest of the EU, and the deficiencies therein can largely be compensated for by the repeal of some of the more burdensome EU regulations, and by targeted tax cuts. The fallout from the withdrawal process is likely to be anywhere from fairly negligible to moderately bad, in any event not a catastrophe. Remember, even the bottom of the range of the most pessimistic scenarios projected by the most pessimistic economists prior to the referendum (no agreement at all and withdrawal to WTO rules) suggested a potential loss of GDP of about 9.5% by 2030, relative to what would've been expected if we had done nothing.
This would equate to about two-thirds of one percent of lost growth per year, it is unlikely to get that bad, and insofar as I am aware none of these projections took any account of the positive impact of future trade deals which the UK might be able to make with other nations on its own account once out of the EU.
Theresa May has her party well under control. And I would suggest that, if Ukip is going to give anyone trouble going forward, it is most likely to be the Labour Party.
There's a meme that Cameron thought he could breeze thru the Euro ref because he'd won the Scots ref.
But he nearly lost the Scots ref, due to laziness, complacency and stupidity.
Cameron is a clown.
I don't think TM is talking to the likes of the denizens of this site, I am not convinced she has today been trying to to talk primarily to the people in the hall. Her message is, perhaps aimed much wider.
I could be completely wrong, I probably am completely wrong, but I think TM will go down as a great PM.