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SkyBet have a market up on whether we’ll have another EU referendum before 2020, unlike a few other bookies, SkyBet are offering No as an option.  One of the reasons why supporters of Remain should avoid a second referendum is that the public will not take kindly to having their verdict overturned, and we could see a Winchester 1997 rerun type result in another referendum.

Read the full story here

tlg86

First like leave.

Sandpit

Second like Remain.

Paul_Bedfordshire

1/4 does have a whiff of free money about it.

I have my doubts that there will ever be another referendum in my lifetime.

The point of a referendum is to get the people to resolve a dispute in your own party that threatens to tear it apart in the way you as PM want it resolved.

Now it dosent work anymore they wont risk it again so long as June 23rd 2016 is in living memory.

JackW

Alistair said:

Betting thought.

Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?

No.

If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.

SandyRentool

I would think that there is more chance of the UK ceasing to exist in its current form than a second Euroref.

Alistair

FTPT

JackW said:

Alistair said:

Betting thought.

Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?

No.

If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.

I don't mean as a double win, I mean as a saver on the swing state bets.

Taking NOM as a saver on my SNP Holyrood constituency bets would have seen me much happier than my all red book was.

LibDem_Colin

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

LibDem_Colin

SandyRentool said:

I would think that there is more chance of the UK ceasing to exist in its current form than a second Euroref.

Agreed. A second Scottish referendum would happen before a second Euroref.

MikeK

Hi All I've been away with pneumonia! Hope to be on my feet by Wednesday. Cheers.

Big_G_NorthWales

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

ydoethur

SandyRentool said:

I would think that there is more chance of the UK ceasing to exist in its current form than a second Euroref.

I would agree with that.

I also think that (1) with Project Fear not likely to be repeated and (2) major problems on the continent (Deutsche Bank, Hungary, the Italian constitution) the result of a second referendum would in any case be a much bigger victory for Leave.

Certainly I voted Remain, albeit reuctantly, but in a second referendum I would unhesitatingly vote Leave, to show how I feel about these stupid 'neverendums' that always seem to happen in the EU.

MikeK

Alistair said:

FTPT

JackW said:

Alistair said:

Betting thought.

Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?

No.

If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.

I don't mean as a double win, I mean as a saver on the swing state bets.

Taking NOM as a saver on my SNP Holyrood constituency bets would have seen me much happier than my all red book was.

But will the voters come out for Hillary?

TheScreamingEagles

Aleksandar Kolarov is just a pound shop Jamie Pollock

Black_Rook

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

A distinct possibility. I doubt if this would displease the Prime Minister. Can be used as means to persuade a reluctant electorate that she has been forced to go to the country.

TheScreamingEagles

Poor Arsenal fans, they are set to miss out on the delights of Burnley

Arsenal fans have journey to Burnley thrown into chaos after train hits cows

• Grand Central train reportedly kills eight cows
• Supporters tweet they will miss match at Turf Moor

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/arsenal-fans-burnley-train-cows?CMP=twt_gu

ydoethur

Just catching up on Panorama on Labour's recent woes.

Politics question, 25 marks; 'Len McCluskey is the most unselfware man since Mussolini criticised Matteoti's violent rhetoric.' Discuss.

JackW

Alistair said:

FTPT

JackW said:

Alistair said:

Betting thought.

Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?

No.

If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.

I don't mean as a double win, I mean as a saver on the swing state bets.

Taking NOM as a saver on my SNP Holyrood constituency bets would have seen me much happier than my all red book was.

I doubt it's a viable strategy.

There's little value in the market presently. I've closed out all my positions to the the not inconsiderable delight of the Mrs JackW Shoe Foundation For The Impoverished Aristocracy ..

Twas ever thus ..

Black_Rook

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

JackW

MikeK said:

But will the voters come out for Hillary?

Early voting returns indicate they already are.

JackW

MikeK said:

Hi All I've been away with pneumonia! Hope to be on my feet by Wednesday. Cheers.

You are Hilary Clinton and I claim 33,000 deleted e-mails ....

619

Christie on the NYT bombshell: "This is actually a very, very good story for Donald Trump."

Rudy says Trump is "strategic" and "a genius" because of how he handled his taxes. #ThisWeek

ermmmm

Big_G_NorthWales

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

CarlottaVance

Remember the big right wing demos in Liverpool at the Labour Conference?

No?

To 'Clementine':

“Make the bonfire, make the bonfire, put the Tories on the top

Put the Blairites in the middle and we’ll burn the f***ing lot

Keep it burning, keep it burning, put the bankers on as well

They’re as guilty as the others, they can all go burn in hell”.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/conservative-conference-live-article-50-8960670

tyson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Arsenal fans, they are set to miss out on the delights of Burnley

Arsenal fans have journey to Burnley thrown into chaos after train hits cows

• Grand Central train reportedly kills eight cows
• Supporters tweet they will miss match at Turf Moor

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/arsenal-fans-burnley-train-cows?CMP=twt_gu

What do you mean poor Arsenal Fans? What about the poor cows?
UTC

LibDem_Colin

This article of one Trump supporter gives me the shivers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc_story.html

CarlottaVance

@Peston: Tory chairman Patrick McLoughlin thanks @George_Osborne. Not a clap or dicky bird of appreciation from Tory members #CPC16

Paul_Bedfordshire

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.

DecrepitJohnL

ydoethur said:

Just catching up on Panorama on Labour's recent woes.

Politics question, 25 marks; 'Len McCluskey is the most unselfware man since Mussolini criticised Matteoti's violent rhetoric.' Discuss.

When you've caught up another week, you'll find George Osborne announcing he won't fumble the next leadership contest.

PlatoSaid

MikeK said:

Hi All I've been away with pneumonia! Hope to be on my feet by Wednesday. Cheers.

Your Secret Service close protection team will bundle you into a van

Big_G_NorthWales

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.

Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. Deluded

CarlottaVance

Hezza onstage:

Lord Heseltine is 83. He says he first addressed the Tory conference 49 years ago.

It was in Blackpool, late in the day, and he was talking about transport policy. The hall was nearly empty, he says.

Pointing out that there is a big audience today, he says: “I can only reflect that everything comes to those who wait.”

He says it was about 30 years ago when William Hague, as a teenager, gave his famous speech and pointed in Heseltine’s direction saying, “In 30 years, you won’t he here.”

Heseltine says Hague got many things right, but not that.

A little poetic licence - Hague's speech was nearer 40 years ago than 30......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/02/conservative-conference-may-to-explain-brexit-great-repeal-bill-in-marr-interview-politics-live

LibDem_Colin

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.

Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. Deluded

One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.

DecrepitJohnL

SeanT said:

If the Lords try to block the GRACT then the Lords will be stuffed, or abolished. It would be constitutional suicide to obstruct the will of the people, expressed in a direct vote, and with the biggest mandate in British electoral history. A vote, moreover, on the most important political change in living memory.

Do these derelict punks feel lucky? Well, do they?

It will pass.

The realpolitik is the Conservative Party has just restuffed the Lords with a Tory majority and there is no chance they are going to throw that away.

Edit: to remove unintended rhyme.

Indigo

ydoethur said:

Just catching up on Panorama on Labour's recent woes.

Politics question, 25 marks; 'Len McCluskey is the most unselfware man since Mussolini criticised Matteoti's violent rhetoric.' Discuss.

Supposedly Uncle Len is in a spot of bother himself, his members not best pleased about his stance on Trident, and his preference for meddling in the Labour party rather than looking out for him members interests.

The Gospel According to Saint Hodges:

Labour moderates now believe Unite general secretary Len McCluskey – Corbyn’s main trade union ally – may be facing an internal revolt as he prepares his own re-election bid.

‘McCluskey’s in trouble,’ one MP informs me.

‘The Unite members in the defence sector are spitting blood over his stance on Trident, and there’s a general feeling he’s more interested in internal Labour politics than looking after the union’s industrial interests.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3817793/DAN-HODGES-isn-t-just-leader-s-speech-change-country-generations-Welcome-DAY-ONE-Millennium.html

GIN1138

CarlottaVance said:

Hezza onstage:

Lord Heseltine is 83. He says he first addressed the Tory conference 49 years ago.

It was in Blackpool, late in the day, and he was talking about transport policy. The hall was nearly empty, he says.

Pointing out that there is a big audience today, he says: “I can only reflect that everything comes to those who wait.”

He says it was about 30 years ago when William Hague, as a teenager, gave his famous speech and pointed in Heseltine’s direction saying, “In 30 years, you won’t he here.”

Heseltine says Hague got many things right, but not that.

A little poetic licence - Hague's speech was nearer 40 years ago than 30......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/02/conservative-conference-may-to-explain-brexit-great-repeal-bill-in-marr-interview-politics-live

Is Hezza still bitter about things?

Big_G_NorthWales

LibDem_Colin said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.

Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. Deluded

One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.

It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be huge

Sandpit

GIN1138 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Hezza onstage:

Lord Heseltine is 83. He says he first addressed the Tory conference 49 years ago.

It was in Blackpool, late in the day, and he was talking about transport policy. The hall was nearly empty, he says.

Pointing out that there is a big audience today, he says: “I can only reflect that everything comes to those who wait.”

He says it was about 30 years ago when William Hague, as a teenager, gave his famous speech and pointed in Heseltine’s direction saying, “In 30 years, you won’t he here.”

Heseltine says Hague got many things right, but not that.

A little poetic licence - Hague's speech was nearer 40 years ago than 30......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/02/conservative-conference-may-to-explain-brexit-great-repeal-bill-in-marr-interview-politics-live

Is Hezza still bitter about things?

Is, was, and always will be.

Alistair

MikeK said:

Alistair said:

FTPT

JackW said:

Alistair said:

Betting thought.

Would the value be in backing Hilary in Swing states and Trump for the presidency?

No.

If Clinton wins swing states she's POTUS. Even if she loses a number of swing states - Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania she still wins.

I don't mean as a double win, I mean as a saver on the swing state bets.

Taking NOM as a saver on my SNP Holyrood constituency bets would have seen me much happier than my all red book was.

But will the voters come out for Hillary?

Yes, the Dems have an incredible GOTV operation.

Speedy

619 said:

Christie on the NYT bombshell: "This is actually a very, very good story for Donald Trump."

Rudy says Trump is "strategic" and "a genius" because of how he handled his taxes. #ThisWeek

ermmmm

A lot of debt restructuring from the early 90's recession.

Anyway at least Trump has stopped people talking about Miss Universe and his inclusion in a soft-core Playboy porn from the 90's.
No wonder it is rumoured that Trump leaked it himself to the paper on purpose.

But I think the N.Y.Times broke the law in releasing those tax returns.

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

FPT

foxinsox claimed that all the Paris attackers were "EU citizens"

This is simply a lie. At least four jihadis associated with the attacks came from Morocco, Pakistan or Syria, and entered the EU by posing as refugees. Including the guy who blew himself up the Stade de France, starting the assault


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/05/mystery-member-of-paris-attacks-cell-only-captured-in-july-despi/

In the Panorama special on this they also made it clear that the ring leader was able to come and go and because of the shear numbers of people flowing in that the authorities just couldn't spot him.

LibDem_Colin

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.

Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. Deluded

One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.

It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be huge

Labour love playing Parliamentary games - they love to inflict defeats on a government.
As do the SNP.

MaxPB

SeanT said:

FPT

foxinsox claimed that all the Paris attackers were "EU citizens"

This is simply a lie. At least four jihadis associated with the attacks came from Morocco, Pakistan or Syria, and entered the EU by posing as refugees. Including the guy who blew himself up the Stade de France, starting the assault


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/05/mystery-member-of-paris-attacks-cell-only-captured-in-july-despi/

Don't rain on their multicultural parade. Free movement and defending Mrs Merkel's is a religion to these people, they won't hear a word against either.

Black_Rook

DecrepitJohnL said:

SeanT said:

If the Lords try to block the GRACT then the Lords will be stuffed, or abolished. It would be constitutional suicide to obstruct the will of the people, expressed in a direct vote, and with the biggest mandate in British electoral history. A vote, moreover, on the most important political change in living memory.

Do these derelict punks feel lucky? Well, do they?

It will pass.

The realpolitik is the Conservative Party has just restuffed the Lords with a Tory majority and there is no chance they are going to throw that away.

Edit: to remove unintended rhyme.

Conservative peers: 254 out of 810

http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/lords/composition-of-the-lords/

Big_G_NorthWales

Theresa May about to address conference on Brexit. Parliament channel + BBC and Sky

MTimT

SNL last night ripped into Hillary for using James Brown's "I feel good' coming onto stage at a husting post the debate. Michael Che (who is black) said that "If Hillary had any black friends, she'd know that James Brown died of pneumonia"

MikeK, hope you get well soon.

Speedy

GIN1138 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Hezza onstage:

Lord Heseltine is 83. He says he first addressed the Tory conference 49 years ago.

It was in Blackpool, late in the day, and he was talking about transport policy. The hall was nearly empty, he says.

Pointing out that there is a big audience today, he says: “I can only reflect that everything comes to those who wait.”

He says it was about 30 years ago when William Hague, as a teenager, gave his famous speech and pointed in Heseltine’s direction saying, “In 30 years, you won’t he here.”

Heseltine says Hague got many things right, but not that.

A little poetic licence - Hague's speech was nearer 40 years ago than 30......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/02/conservative-conference-may-to-explain-brexit-great-repeal-bill-in-marr-interview-politics-live

Is Hezza still bitter about things?

Why not ?
He came twise very close to be PM in 1990 and 1995 and would probably had become Tory leader after 1997 if it wasn't for his heart attack.

His life plan was him becoming PM by the 1990's.

FrancisUrquhart

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theresa May about to address conference on Brexit. Parliament channel + BBC and Sky

Minions assemble.....

http://img3.rnkr-static.com/user_node_img/50045/1000885431/870/gru-has-more-minions-than-you-might-think-photo-u1.jpg

Speedy

LibDem_Colin said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.

Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. Deluded

One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.

It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be huge

Labour love playing Parliamentary games - they love to inflict defeats on a government.
As do the SNP.

I think Corbyn will allow it to pass through, though the 172 MP's will have objections as usual.

Sandpit

MTimT said:

SNL last night ripped into Hillary for using James Brown's "I feel good' coming onto stage at a husting post the debate. Michael Che (who is black) said that "If Hillary had any black friends, she'd know that James Brown died of pneumonia"

MikeK, hope you get well soon.

First five minutes of this rips them both to shreds.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=FO6SSdplULI

ydoethur

Speedy said:

But I think the N.Y.Times broke the law in releasing those tax returns.

I would have said that disclosure was legitimate and in the public interest. Trump is running for high office and it is an established tradition that such people disclose their financial affairs.

However, it doesn't really make much difference. We all knew or at least, strongly suspected that he minimised his taxes because he would have been stupid not to. Nobody pays more tax than they have to.

In any case, it's the paper of Jayston Blair. Publishing private accounts seems tame by comparison to him, and they got away with that for years.

Big_G_NorthWales

LibDem_Colin said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.

Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. Deluded

One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.

It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be huge

Labour love playing Parliamentary games - they love to inflict defeats on a government.
As do the SNP.

There's Parliamentary games and there's political suicide

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

Can't see another referendum prior to 2020.

TCPoliticalBetting

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.

Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. Deluded

One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.

It will pass easily with the positive support of a large number of labour , dup and ukip mps, all of whom respecting the vote of the people. The anger that any mps will receive who votes against will be huge

Please do not say that as Josias Jessop thinks it is just vengeance by LEAVErs... After all he is right about most walking matters.

stodge

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theresa May about to address conference on Brexit. Parliament channel + BBC and Sky

Of far more European interest, the Arc is soon underway at Chantilly.

TCPoliticalBetting

Iain Dale ✔ @IainDale
Something tells me this hall isn't split 52-48! #CPC16

FrancisUrquhart

ydoethur said:

Speedy said:

But I think the N.Y.Times broke the law in releasing those tax returns.

I would have said that disclosure was legitimate and in the public interest. Trump is running for high office and it is an established tradition that such people disclose their financial affairs.

However, it doesn't really make much difference. We all knew or at least, strongly suspected that he minimised his taxes because he would have been stupid not to. Nobody pays more tax than they have to.

In any case, it's the paper of Jayston Blair. Publishing private accounts seems tame by comparison to him, and they got away with that for years.

Even the NYT don't really think the size of the loss he recorded isn't total pie in the sky, as they point out in the article he had $100's millions of well know losses around that time, and it is on record his quip that the homeless guy outside of Trump Tower was richer than him because he didn't owe billions.

TCPoliticalBetting

Mrs May is a bit Clint Eastwood. (To Remainers) "Oh come on."

TCPoliticalBetting

Contrast Mrs May with Jeremy Corbin. It is just no contest.

TCPoliticalBetting

SeanT said:

The Tories are having an orgasm.

If she fires them up this much and they go outside and meet protestors I would bet on the aged members winning. The blue rinse ladies can be pretty tough.

JosiasJessop

SeanT said:

FPT

foxinsox claimed that all the Paris attackers were "EU citizens"

This is simply a lie. At least four jihadis associated with the attacks came from Morocco, Pakistan or Syria, and entered the EU by posing as refugees. Including the guy who blew himself up the Stade de France, starting the assault

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/05/mystery-member-of-paris-attacks-cell-only-captured-in-july-despi/

It seems it's more complex than that:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34832512

Most (not all) of the attackers were EU citizens. Many of them had left the country though to fight with IS, and some possibly re-entered on false passports (presumably because they thought their real identities might be tracked).

But you are correct in that it appears the open-doors to refugees policy made the attackers' job easier, and made the security forces' work harder. It seems perfectly feasible for the UK to track people entering better than the EU have done through Merkel's Madness.

What's interesting IMO is what the government will propose wrt exit checks, which is a major chink in our defences.

BigRich

LibDem_Colin said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

LibDem_Colin said:

No doubt the Great Repeal Bill will result in interesting Parliamentary maneouvers both in the Commons and in the Lords.

If the Lib Dem peers all vote No it will be interesting to see how the crossbenchers vote.
Could the bill fail in the Lords?

Parliament Act will over rule the unelected House of Lords

But the Lords can obstruct the passage of legislation for a year before the Parliament Act may be invoked to bypass them. Government could justify going to country as means to avoid a year of Parliamentary limbo caused by a tiny number of unelected Remain ultras, acting in defiance of both the Commons and the electorate.

The government's time scale allows the year to invoke the Parliament Act

Its not a year its the remainder of that parliamentary session (ie until after the next Queens speech. So it could be as little as a couple of months.

Tim Farron on Sky just now talking rubbish and so out of touch with the democraric will of the people. He speaks about lib dem local results recently as if he is the rising star in the firmanent. Deluded

One wonders if the Great Repeal Bill could actually fail in the Commons? Unlikely given enough arm-twisting on the Tory side i.e. vote this down and you will not have a seat in 2020.

I think it unlikely that TM will have difficulty getting this though the commons,

Amusing Shin Fain and Speaker abstain, UKIP, DUP, and the 10 Labour Leave, all join the government then there would need to be 28 Tories voting Remain (or 56 Abstentions) Which would be a lot, especially as you point out, the difficulty that these MPs may have in getting reselected by a Conservative association.

Much more likely IMHO a lot of Labour MPs especially the 150 ish who have seats that voted Leave, will ether abstain or vote with the government. based on his comments the day after the referendum I think even Jeremy Corby will may vote with the government on this, but looking at his leadership skills, difficult to predict how much of his shadow cabinet or PLP will follow him.

the House of Lords is another matter: is anybody keeping or has anybody seen lists of which way Lords have indicated they will vote?

Big_G_NorthWales

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Contrast Mrs May with Jeremy Corbin. It is just no contest.

Or even Corbyn

Stark_Dawning

A second referendum is a distinct possibility. I can envisage the situation where May is held to ransom by the Leave ultras and calls a second referendum in a 'who governs Britain?' manoeuvre. The likes of IDS won't tolerate her procrastination for much longer and will certainly move to oust her if she doesn't submit. It will be at that point that May ups the stakes and calls for Referendum II.

Big_G_NorthWales

Big increase in conservative membership on the horizon

FrancisUrquhart

SeanT said:

This is good from May. Serious, sober, forceful. Exactly what is required.

Has she mentioned the Colombian peace deal yet? Or winning a local council by election? ;-)

stodge

Remarkable 1-2-3 for Aidan O'Brien and Coolmore in the Arc.

Big_G_NorthWales

SeanT said:

This is good from May. Serious, sober, forceful. Exactly what is required.

Grown up politics - tour de force speech

Philip_Thompson

Stark_Dawning said:

A second referendum is a distinct possibility. I can envisage the situation where May is held to ransom by the Leave ultras and calls a second referendum in a 'who governs Britain?' manoeuvre. The likes of IDS won't tolerate her procrastination for much longer and will certainly move to oust her if she doesn't submit. It will be at that point that May ups the stakes and calls for Referendum II.

A who governs Britain maneuver would be a General Election, not a Referendum redux.

Sandpit

Mrs May sounding very good.

Philip_Thompson

May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.

TCPoliticalBetting

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Contrast Mrs May with Jeremy Corbin. It is just no contest.

Or even Corbyn

smell chuker priblems

CarlottaVance

Interesting, May's speech writers have underestimated the amount of applause she'd get as they haven't had enough applause pauses.....

Philip_Thompson

Sounds like we are definitely leaving the Single Market.

maaarsh

Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.

SouthamObserver

£10 on City at half time - 22/1.

I know my Spurs.

Black_Rook

Philip_Thompson said:

May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.

She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.

A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.

CarlottaVance

maaarsh said:

Has she never given a speech before?

Ask the Police Federation......

Big_G_NorthWales

maaarsh said:

Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.

You must be a remoaner

maaarsh

Big_G_NorthWales said:

maaarsh said:

Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.

You must be a remoaner

No, leave voter and campaigner. Doesn't make this a well delivered speech.

Black_Rook

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting, May's speech writers have underestimated the amount of applause she'd get as they haven't had enough applause pauses.....

The party membership is strongly pro-Brexit, and I suspect that the pro-EU MPs were either not strongly committed to that cause and have acquiesced, or are staying away from this event. She's preaching very much to the converted this afternoon.

Sandpit

Really powerful, positive speech from the PM about Great Britain and her place in the world.

Morris_Dancer

Only watched snippets. Substance seems sound, but May stumbles over her words quite a bit.

CarlottaVance

Interesting, Mr May sitting next to Lord Feldman.....

Big_G_NorthWales

maaarsh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

maaarsh said:

Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.

You must be a remoaner

No, leave voter and campaigner. Doesn't make this a well delivered speech.

Excellent speech and she will make this work

frpenkridge

The youngest looking Tory conference audience I can remember.

Morris_Dancer

As an aside, it amuses me that standing ovations from Conservatives mean both "That was super" and "We'll be assassinating you on Tuesday".

Stark_Dawning

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.

She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.

A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.

Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.

maaarsh

Big_G_NorthWales said:

maaarsh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

maaarsh said:

Has she never given a speech before? Seems clueless as to where her applause lines are, very stilted.

You must be a remoaner

No, leave voter and campaigner. Doesn't make this a well delivered speech.

Excellent speech and she will make this work

Excellent and encouraging content. Undeniably poor delivery for a front line politician.

Indigo

Morris_Dancer said:

Only watched snippets. Substance seems sound, but May stumbles over her words quite a bit.

I think she was having an attack of the grins, she seemed surprised how well it was going down on the floor.

MaxPB

Morris_Dancer said:

As an aside, it amuses me that standing ovations from Conservatives mean both "That was super" and "We'll be assassinating you on Tuesday".

Tis the way of the party.

Danny565

Indigo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Only watched snippets. Substance seems sound, but May stumbles over her words quite a bit.

I think she was having an attack of the grins, she seemed surprised how well it was going down on the floor.

She does have a Gordon Brown-like tendency to pull weird facial expressions when she's taking a pause for breath.

Philip_Thompson

Stark_Dawning said:

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.

She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.

A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.

Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.

Europe has been a festering wound in the party for three decades now. A clean amputation will end that.

CarlottaVance

SeanT said:

Slightly blew her last lines. That was a powerfully simple speech, however.

I think she was thrown by the applause - more than anticipated...

Good 'steady the ship' speech - gets the conference off to a strong start....

Interestingly Davis repeating the 'four countries of the United Kingdom'....

Indigo

Stark_Dawning said:

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.

She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.

A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.

Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.

Or possibly it matches her own point of view, see the delight with which she ditched Osborne. People talk about her folly in putting Boris, Davis and Fox in those jobs, they might want to consider they got those jobs because she shares their views, even if she keeps it rather quiet.

Philip_Thompson

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.

She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.

A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.

Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.

Or possibly it matches her own point of view, see the delight with which she ditched Osborne. People talk about her folly in putting Boris, Davis and Fox in those jobs, they might want to consider they got those jobs because she shares their views, even if she keeps it rather quiet.

I think she's decided that there's no point being half pregnant. Brexit means Brexit may actually mean something.

Black_Rook

Stark_Dawning said:

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

May does not sound like someone who was backing Remain during the campaign. Very strong and powerful.

She did the minimum possible to sound loyal to Cameron, ready to emerge as the unity candidate when he fell. She's played the politics very, very well.

A lot of language in the speech re: sovereignty, not going back under the authority of the ECJ, and restoring control over immigration. Think we can safely consign any EEA model to the dustbin, if we haven't already done so.

Yes, rock-hard Brexit is on the way. I have some sympathy. The Tory hard-right Leave faction is not something you'd cross if you want the quiet life.

With hindsight (a wonderful thing, as always) it was a choice between staying in the EU and hard Brexit all along. There was no way that any post-Brexit Govt could accept the continued free movement of people, and no way that the EU would waive this requirement whilst allowing us to stay in the single market.

PlatoSaid

After deep scepticism, May has convinced me with that speech. No autocue either.

I'm almost back in Tory fold.

surbiton

justin124 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

OldKingCole said:

glw said:

FrankBooth said:

I think the reinvention of George Osborne from scheming Machiavellian to principled backbencher will be more fascinating than bruiser Balls turned prime time dancer. I'd guess the public will be less likely to buy it though.

I'd be amazed if the public believed it. The best thing Osborne can do is leave parliament.

One of the saving graces of the Leave vote was the political demise of Osborne. Front bench-wise anyway! Now, if we could only persuade Martin Bell to stand for Tatton again.........

One of the benefits of the boundary review is that many of the Remainer MPs have to keep a little eye on the likely way that the boundaries go and their support within their local Executive under new boundaries. Causing too much trouble for Mrs May could cause local deselections. Osborne himself may have to find a new association and the word I hear is that his current association is full of LEAVErs. Where they go in the new boundaries is the question. Can for example Ken Clarke guarantee a home for Soubry?

But it might also give quite a few of them quite an incentive to scupper the boundary changes!

Of course, they will. Some people offer opinion here in PB without thinking.

Big_G_NorthWales

PlatoSaid said:

After deep scepticism, May has convinced me with that speech. No autocue either.

I'm almost back in Tory fold.

Welcome home Plato (hopefully)

CarlottaVance

@LordAshcroft:
Theresa May has set the right tone for Brexit...powerful opening speech..not much for Davis Boris etc to add...