politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the LDs won’t be too unhappy if Corbyn is re-elected

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

RobD said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Theuniondivvie said:

?

Why would it be anything to do with Brexit?

The result of the referendum is seen by some as legitimating both their attitudes and such behaviour, and by others as an opportunity to use such behaviour to apply pressure to our immigrant communities (and to people of different ethnic backgrounds whether they are immigrants or not) e

I'd like to see evidence on that last claim. The Independent had it at a 58% increase in reported acts, nowhere near 100% for most of the country you state. This number is now only 14% above trend (according to the same article), and there is of course the distinction between actual crime and reported crime.

Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland tends to spike around election time. I expect this is a similar phenomenon.

It has undoubtedly spiked, but I just wanted to see evidence for the 200%/300% claim.

We should also consider what would have happened had Remain won. I would guess more incidents but fewer reports.

Because there was a significant spike after the result (with some of the early coverage suggesting five times the normal level of reported incidents) that is now dropping away, there isn't much point in arguing over the figures. Depending on the time period and geography you choose, the increase in incidents can be anything from +25% to +400%. The bottom line is that there has been a dramatic short-run increase, which thankfully is falling off, including some very serious incidents including two recent murders. Many councils including my own have made strong cross-party statements condemning this behaviour and the police and other agencies have acted quickly to try and tackle it. Such actions, together with the passage of time, are hopefully playing their part in slowly trying to get things back to normal. None of this detracts from the original point nor from the seriousness of the murders.

Any evidence for that "doubling in much of the country" claim?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

You would get that treatment for speaking with a southern accent in Salford 30 years ag, let alone Polish

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

another_richard said:

Essexit said:

You will however find them performing advanced mental gymnastics after the little people have got it 'wrong', to explain why democracy isn't really about people voting for things.

Ishmael_X said:

"Populist" in this context means "perversely pretending to think that 52% is more than 48%."

What really upsets the remoaners is that they were defeated by the 'wrong' sort of people.

Namely working class people 'up north', coastal town 'chavs' and 'rustics' from poor farming areas. All places they have never been to or sometimes even head of before.

These were the top ten Leave areas in Britain:

Boston, South Holland, Castle Point, Thurrock, Yarmouth, Fenland, Mansfield, Bolsover, East Lindsey, NE Lincolnshire

and these the top ten Remain areas in Britain:

Lambeth, Hackney, Haringey, Islington, Wandsworth, Camden, Edinburgh, Cambridge, Southwark, Oxford

The remoaners are having the same experience that the French and Russian aristocracies had in 1789 and 1917.

More leaver whinging. It's hilarious.

A note for you:

You won

Sorry, but it seems like you haven't noticed.

We won Brexit, but that is just the first battle to win the war to roll back and reverse not just Blairs changes but Wilsons as well. I want to see everything the likes of Roy Jenkins, Peter Mandelson and Tony Crosland stood for and fought for reduced to rubble.

In short, I want the state rolled back to the size it was prior to World War 1

I can see your general point ie the UK out of the EU, spending slashed and grammar schools restored however reversing Jenkins, for example, would mean homosexuality and abortion criminalised again too and don't forget either that Mandelson was part of the first time Blair government which cut spending to its second lowest level in the last half-century (only Thatcher left it lower before she left office)

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

Bad, bad week for Hilary timed with the start of early voting in North Carolina so not good news for Hilary. Two interesting trends. Early voting rates massively higher than last election, Dem votes returning at much higher rate.

Perhaps more interesting is how the number of unaffiliated ballots is massively higher than last time, approaching the number of Republicans.

HurstLlama said:

@IanB2

"... the police and other agencies have acted quickly to try and tackle it."

That snippet caught me aback. What specifically have the police actually done? Who are these other agencies?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

FPT

HYUFD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

JosiasJessop said:

another_richard said:

Essexit said:

You will however find them performing advanced mental gymnastics after the little people have got it 'wrong', to explain why democracy isn't really about people voting for things.

Ishmael_X said:

"Populist" in this context means "perversely pretending to think that 52% is more than 48%."

What really upsets the remoaners is that they were defeated by the 'wrong' sort of people.

Namely working class people 'up north', coastal town 'chavs' and 'rustics' from poor farming areas. All places they have never been to or sometimes even head of before.

These were the top ten Leave areas in Britain:

Boston, South Holland, Castle Point, Thurrock, Yarmouth, Fenland, Mansfield, Bolsover, East Lindsey, NE Lincolnshire

and these the top ten Remain areas in Britain:

Lambeth, Hackney, Haringey, Islington, Wandsworth, Camden, Edinburgh, Cambridge, Southwark, Oxford

More leaver whinging. It's hilarious.

A note for you:

You won

Sorry, but it seems like you haven't noticed.

We won Brexit, but that is just the first battle to win the war to roll back and reverse not just Blairs changes but Wilsons as well. I want to see everything the likes of Roy Jenkins, Peter Mandelson and Tony Crosland stood for and fought for reduced to rubble.

In short, I want the state rolled back to the size it was prior to World War 1

I can see your general point ie the UK out of the EU, spending slashed and grammar schools restored however reversing Jenkins, for example, would mean homosexuality and abortion criminalised again too and don't forget either that Mandelson was part of the first time Blair government which cut spending to its second lowest level in the last half-century (only Thatcher left it lower before she left office)

Abortion, yes I would criminalise again. If you accept that it is killing a very weak and vulnerable individual then there can be no compromise on that. Murder is murder.

Criminalising Homosexuality. That would be wrong. It was only criminalised in response to a Daily Mail like media hoohah in the late 19th century - a time where the state was just beginning to meddle in social affairs in the modern sense and gave a certain type of bullyboy policeman scope to ruin countless lives. Gay Marriage is going too far the other way but I didnt have a problem with civil parterships other than that siblings were and are discriminated against.

justin124 said:

Ishmael_X said:

justin124 said:

IanB2 said:

justin124 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

justin124 said:

Paul Bedfordshire said:

' We won Brexit, but that is just the first battle to win the war to roll back and reverse not just Blairs changes but Wilsons as well. I want to see everything the likes of Roy Jenkins, Peter Mandelson and Tony Crosland stood for and fought for reduced to rubble.

In short, I want the state rolled back to the size it was prior to World War 1'
Justin 124 said:
'An end to human decency and civilisation as we know it.Perhaps you are a member of the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory Party .'

David Herdson said:

' That's a disgraceful comment and says a great deal more about you and your perverted worldview than it does about politics.'

Not in the context of the comments at which it was directed.

Oh come off it. There was no justification for that disgraceful comment. You should gave a good long look in a mirror and be ashamed of yourself.

Not at all - and I made no assertion of any kind. My first word was 'Perhaps'.

Well perhaps you are a complete moron. Please don't take that as an insult because I have covered myself with the second word.

Are you really seeking to deny what I have said re- Rothermere and the Monday Club? I could go further and refresh the memories of some who would prefer to forget the Likes of John Carlisle and his attitude to Apartheid.

Can I just add to the growing consensus that you are perhaps a complete twit? I suspect that you do not know what "Arbeit Macht Frei" actually means, but it certainly isn't an item of Nazi doctrine. POerhaps you should stop trying to sound clever.

I have studied German and am well acquainted with the phrase - the origins of which stem from 1933 not the Holocaust.

RobD said:

Alistair said:

Survation with some radically differnt Scottish Poll favourability numbers from the last one mentioned. Corbyn still shite mind.

twitter.com/Survation/status/777105626623336448

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/fff_.pdf

Do you have numbers for the other one, and the question asked?

IanB2 said:

HurstLlama said:

@IanB2

"... the police and other agencies have acted quickly to try and tackle it."

That snippet caught me aback. What specifically have the police actually done? Who are these other agencies?

Many local councils have debated the issue at full council meetings and/or issued cross-pary statements condemning the outbreak of racist incidents since the referendum, and reassuring their residents from other EU countries that they are welcome here and that their residency and employment status are under no immediate threat. Local press and other media have been encouraged to publicise such initiatives. Many particularly larger employers have done the same for their own workforce; I know of several local employers that have met their EU employees in small groups to talk through their worries and concerns. Both local authorities and local police forces have urged people to report all incidents of abuse or violence and reminded people of the ways in which they can do so, such messages generally reinforced by local media. The police has briefed its patrol officers to be alert to the possibility of such incidents and reissued guidance on how to respond to them. Local authorities have liasied with relevant voluntary sector organisations, such as those that support migrants and refugees, to gather intelligence and co-ordinate their response. Etc. Etc.

Alistair said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

Survation with some radically differnt Scottish Poll favourability numbers from the last one mentioned. Corbyn still shite mind.

twitter.com/Survation/status/777105626623336448

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/fff_.pdf

Do you have numbers for the other one, and the question asked?

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/ipsos-mori-scotland-spom-september-2016-tables.pdf

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1367060-poll-ruth-davidson-more-popular-with-scots-than-sturgeon/

Ipsos poll was

"How satisfied or dissatisfied with the way X is doing her job as Y?"

Survation was

"To what extent do you think favourably or unfavourably towards the following political figures? Name Here"

Ishmael_X said:

Interestingly the headline says "Police log fivefold rise in race-hate complaints since Brexit result."

The text says "Complaints filed to police online hate-crime reporting site True Vision have increased fivefold since last Thursday, the National Police Chiefs Council said, with 331 hate crime incidents reported to the site compared with a weekly average of 63."

Different claims entirely. If you seriously wanted to report a crime to the police you would, I would have thought, ring them up rather than filling in a form on a website. The form, incidentally, will accept anonymous reports.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

I find the reporting of individual cases like this to make some sort of wider point bizarre, mendacious and reprehensible. By contrast, the rape of thousands in Rotherham HAD statistical significance and went unreported for years. It's purely and simply manipulation of people's emotional responses to believe a narrative, helped along by permanently outraged dimwits on social media.

HurstLlama said:

IanB2 said:

HurstLlama said:

@IanB2

"... the police and other agencies have acted quickly to try and tackle it."

That snippet caught me aback. What specifically have the police actually done? Who are these other agencies?

Many local councils have debated the issue at full council meetings and/or issued cross-pary statements condemning the outbreak of racist incidents since the referendum, and reassuring their residents from other EU countries that they are welcome here and that their residency and employment status are under no immediate threat. Local press and other media have been encouraged to publicise such initiatives. Many particularly larger employers have done the same for their own workforce; I know of several local employers that have met their EU employees in small groups to talk through their worries and concerns. Both local authorities and local police forces have urged people to report all incidents of abuse or violence and reminded people of the ways in which they can do so, such messages generally reinforced by local media. The police has briefed its patrol officers to be alert to the possibility of such incidents and reissued guidance on how to respond to them. Local authorities have liasied with relevant voluntary sector organisations, such as those that support migrants and refugees, to gather intelligence and co-ordinate their response. Etc. Etc.

Mr. B2, so the police have actually done nothing other than reiterating some standing orders. That is hardly moving quickly to tackle a problem.

IanB2 said:

HurstLlama said:

IanB2 said:

HurstLlama said:

@IanB2

"... the police and other agencies have acted quickly to try and tackle it."

That snippet caught me aback. What specifically have the police actually done? Who are these other agencies?

Many local councils have debated the issue at full council meetings and/or issued cross-pary statements condemning the outbreak of racist incidents since the referendum, and reassuring their residents from other EU countries that they are welcome here and that their residency and employment status are under no immediate threat. Local press and other media have been encouraged to publicise such initiatives. Many particularly larger employers have done the same for their own workforce; I know of several local employers that have met their EU employees in small groups to talk through their worries and concerns. Both local authorities and local police forces have urged people to report all incidents of abuse or violence and reminded people of the ways in which they can do so, such messages generally reinforced by local media. The police has briefed its patrol officers to be alert to the possibility of such incidents and reissued guidance on how to respond to them. Local authorities have liasied with relevant voluntary sector organisations, such as those that support migrants and refugees, to gather intelligence and co-ordinate their response. Etc. Etc.

Mr. B2, so the police have actually done nothing other than reiterating some standing orders. That is hardly moving quickly to tackle a problem.

Aside from occasional meetings with our local police chiefs I have no particular authority to account for what they have or have not done. Although the cynics and sceptics on PB do appear to be out in force today.

A quick internet search throws up the following as just a few small examples:

http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/national/14582169.Police_on_hate_crime_alert_over_post_Brexit_vote__racist_incidents_/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/26/police-watchdog-to-investigate-response-to-hate-crime

https://www.rt.com/uk/348505-hate-crime-rise-brexit/

http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/14590231.Cumbria_Police_issue_hate_crime_warning_following_Brexit_vote_incidents/

IanB2 said:

HurstLlama said:

IanB2 said:

HurstLlama said:

@IanB2

"... the police and other agencies have acted quickly to try and tackle it."

That snippet caught me aback. What specifically have the police actually done? Who are these other agencies?

Many local councils have debated the issue at full council meetings and/or issued cross-pary statements condemning the outbreak of racist incidents since the referendum, and reassuring their residents from other EU countries that they are welcome here and that their residency and employment status are under no immediate threat. Local press and other media have been encouraged to publicise such initiatives. Many particularly larger employers have done the same for their own workforce; I know of several local employers that have met their EU employees in small groups to talk through their worries and concerns. Both local authorities and local police forces have urged people to report all incidents of abuse or violence and reminded people of the ways in which they can do so, such messages generally reinforced by local media. The police has briefed its patrol officers to be alert to the possibility of such incidents and reissued guidance on how to respond to them. Local authorities have liasied with relevant voluntary sector organisations, such as those that support migrants and refugees, to gather intelligence and co-ordinate their response. Etc. Etc.

Mr. B2, so the police have actually done nothing other than reiterating some standing orders. That is hardly moving quickly to tackle a problem.

Aside from occasional meetings with our local police chiefs I have no particular authority to account for what they have or have not done. Although the cynics and sceptics on PB do appear to be out in force today.

A quick internet search throws up the following as just a few small examples:

http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/national/14582169.Police_on_hate_crime_alert_over_post_Brexit_vote__racist_incidents_/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/26/police-watchdog-to-investigate-response-to-hate-crime

https://www.rt.com/uk/348505-hate-crime-rise-brexit/

http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/14590231.Cumbria_Police_issue_hate_crime_warning_following_Brexit_vote_incidents/

ThreeQuidder said:

justin124 said:

Ishmael_X said:

justin124 said:

Ishmael_X said:

justin124 said:

IanB2 said:

justin124 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

justin124 said:

Paul Bedfordshire said:

' We won Brexit, but that is just the first battle to win the war to roll back and reverse not just Blairs changes but Wilsons as well. I want to see everything the likes of Roy Jenkins, Peter Mandelson and Tony Crosland stood for and fought for reduced to rubble.

In short, I want the state rolled back to the size it was prior to World War 1'
Justin 124 said:
'An end to human decency and civilisation as we know it.Perhaps you are a member of the Arbeit Macht Frei wing of the Tory Party .'

David Herdson said:

'

Not in the context of the comments at which it was directed.

Oh come off it. There was no justification for that disgraceful comment. You should gave a good long look in a mirror and be ashamed of yourself.

Not at all - and I made no assertion of any kind. My first word was 'Perhaps'.

Well perhaps you are a complete moron. Please don't take that as an insult because I have covered myself with the second word.

Are you really seeking to deny what I have said re- Rothermere and the Monday Club? I could go further and refresh the memories of some who would prefer to forget the Likes of John Carlisle and his attitude to Apartheid.

Can I just add to the growing consensus that you are perhaps a complete twit? I suspect that you do not know what "Arbeit Macht Frei" actually means, but it certainly isn't an item of Nazi doctrine. POerhaps you should stop trying to sound clever.

I have studied German and am well acquainted with the phrase - the origins of which stem from 1933 not the Holocaust.

No they don't. Look it up. You also don't know what "in extremis" means - it doesn't mean "extremely." Look it up.

re- Arbeit Macht frei - 'In 1933 the first political prisoners were being rounded up for an indefinite period without charges. They were held in a number of places in Germany. The slogan was first used over the gate of a "wild camp" in the city of Oranienburg, which was set up in an abandoned brewery in March 1933 (it was later rebuilt in 1936 as Sachsenhausen'
From Wilkipedia

Now do you understand why it's disgraceful to claim that the Conservative party has such a tendency, let alone that any individual might belong to it?

RobD said:

Alistair said:

RobD said:

Alistair said:

Survation with some radically differnt Scottish Poll favourability numbers from the last one mentioned. Corbyn still shite mind.

twitter.com/Survation/status/777105626623336448

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/fff_.pdf

Do you have numbers for the other one, and the question asked?

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/ipsos-mori-scotland-spom-september-2016-tables.pdf

http://stv.tv/news/politics/1367060-poll-ruth-davidson-more-popular-with-scots-than-sturgeon/

Ipsos poll was

"How satisfied or dissatisfied with the way X is doing her job as Y?"

Survation was

"To what extent do you think favourably or unfavourably towards the following political figures? Name Here"

Satisfied/unsatisfied of performance vs. favourable/unfavourable opinion. I wish pollsters would use standardised questions!

Theuniondivvie said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

I find the reporting of individual cases like this to make some sort of wider point bizarre, mendacious and reprehensible. By contrast, the rape of thousands in Rotherham HAD statistical significance and went unreported for years. It's purely and simply manipulation of people's emotional responses to believe a narrative, helped along by permanently outraged dimwits on social media.

Hmm.
You seem quite outraged. Is it permanent?

MaxPB said:

http://thetimes.co.uk/article/289cbda8-7c4d-11e6-bc4a-e87dd57eab9b

The killing, thought to be the first in the UK caused by a schism between Salafi and Sufi Muslims, led to the conviction yesterday of a 21-year-old who was said to have been inspired by Isis. Mohammed Syeedy and his 23-year-old friend, Mohammed Kadir, stalked and attacked Jalal Uddin, 71, because the Sufi scholar was known for his expertise in a form of Islamic healing known as ruqya, whose use is widespread in south Asian communities.

Look at what we've brought to our streets. Absolutely disgusting.

Wasn't this also called a far right hate crime initially?

MaxPB said:

Wasn't this also called a far right hate crime initially?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1983, wasn't the local MP saying Telford needed a Rotherham-style inquiry?

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Anyone else tuning into BBC one tonight to see Balls being exposed before a live audience?

Oh yes. And I have a small wager on him at 300/1

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

saddened said:

These children who would have been aborted but weren't. Who is going to look after these, sometimes massively dusabled children?

You could easily extend that comment into an argument for euthanising the disabled, feeble minded and homeless/vagrants - as of course did marie stopes and the other Eugencists and Nazi philosophical fellow travellers who first promoted legalising abortion

rottenborough said:

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Anyone else tuning into BBC one tonight to see Balls being exposed before a live audience?

Oh yes. And I have a small wager on him at 300/1

Actually, isn't it next week and not tonight?

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

saddened said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

saddened said:

These children who would have been aborted but weren't. Who is going to look after these, sometimes massively dusabled children?

You could easily extend that comment into an argument for euthanising the disabled, feeble minded and homeless/vagrants - as of course did marie stopes and the other Eugencists and Nazi philosophical fellow travellers who first promoted legalising abortion

You could. But wouldn't. Now any chance of addressing the question?

Perhaps you should answer the question as to why it is ok to euthanise the disabled before birth but not after?

As to your question. Ask yourself who looked after the vulnerable and disabled for most of history until the state stuck its nose in.

Morris_Dancer said:

Betting Post

F1 piece will be up a little later (got some stuff to do first), so here's the tip:
Ricciardo to win, Betfair 4.5, hedged at evens.

I also decided to hedge (just for the stake value) Mr. Sandpit's cunning spot on Rosberg to win at 5.9 [currently lay value 1.99].

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, last I checked No Safety Car was precisely 5.

Edited extra bit: did you hedge Rosberg, out of interest?

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, last I checked No Safety Car was precisely 5.

Edited extra bit: did you hedge Rosberg, out of interest?

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

rottenborough said:

rottenborough said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Anyone else tuning into BBC one tonight to see Balls being exposed before a live audience?

Oh yes. And I have a small wager on him at 300/1

Actually, isn't it next week and not tonight?

Oh, I think you might be right. Personally I think people will find Balls of limited amusement value.

Possibly. But the exposure is worth its weight. He has been all over the place this week. I was channel hopping idly last night and there was some rubbish chat show thing centred around Bake Off and Balls was on trying to flip a pancake!

The average joe public will actually know who he is by end of all this. Putting him alongside Blair, Brown, Cameron, May and on a good day Osborne. No other politician gets a look in.

IanB2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, last I checked No Safety Car was precisely 5.

Edited extra bit: did you hedge Rosberg, out of interest?

In the Belgian, there was a safety car.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B2, did I tip otherwise [can't remember]?

Mr. Sandpit, my stake on this is smaller. I'm still at the pre-wealthy phase of the Four Yorkshiremen

PlatoSaid said:

nunu said:

619 said:

Alistair said:

Bad, bad week for Hilary timed with the start of early voting in North Carolina so not good news for Hilary. Two interesting trends. Early voting rates massively higher than last election, Dem votes returning at much higher rate.

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/777139081335738369

thats good for hilary i would have thought? early voters are normally dems and african american. the birther stuff and msm calling trump a racist, violent liar also helps her

What's interesting is Republican turnout up 234% but Dem is up over 300%! Trump is certainly driving turnout higher.

Do you have a linky for that?

Morris_Dancer said:

Ah, I remember the Belgian safety car now. Just one of those things.

Mr. Sandpit, indeed, that's why I standardise my records with theoretical £10 stakes for every bet. Makes comparing each year easier.

Black_Rook said:

I see no particular reason to suppose that any significant Lib Dem revival is on the cards. Most of their very limited set of realistic target marginals are Tory-facing, but Farron has moved the party leftwards and there is no good reason for the Yellow Tory vote that went over to the Conservatives in 2015 to head back - especially for as long as the dominant players in the opposition are so repellent to moderate, gently right-leaning voters. Nobody is going to vote Lib Dem to endorse wet centrism, in the knowledge that they risk Farron letting in a rainbow coalition that will be dominated by the Hard Left and Scottish Nationalists.

For so long as the Conservatives' vote share doesn't drift significantly downwards - and there isn't really anywhere better for all the people who backed Cameron in 2015 to go - then the Lib Dems could take Labour to the cleaners and still get hardly anywhere. Labour's vote in its core territories is so strong, and its parliamentary majorities so huge, that the Lib Dems could steal 50% of all Labour's voters - significantly surpassing them on total vote share in the process - and still end up with only about 40 seats, based on a uniform swing (and would still be outnumbered 3:1 in Parliament by Rump Labour's surviving MPs.) The Tories would actually gain more seats from a dramatic Labour collapse than the Lib Dems would.

The Lib Dems, Greens and Ukip all suffer from the crippling problem, under FPTP, of a lack of a geographic base. Their support is a mile wide (well, after the last election, perhaps only a couple of furlongs wide,) but an inch deep. The Tories, Labour and SNP are the opposite, and predominate accordingly. The Lib Dems need to identify and to build a power base, and they also need a strategy to try to keep themselves from being wiped out again should they ever have another chance to join a coalition. Without both, they exist for no other reason than to self-perpetuate. They might as well give up.

Black_Rook said:

I see no particular reason to suppose that any significant Lib Dem revival is on the cards. Most of their very limited set of realistic target marginals are Tory-facing, but Farron has moved the party leftwards and there is no good reason for the Yellow Tory vote that went over to the Conservatives in 2015 to head back - especially for as long as the dominant players in the opposition are so repellent to moderate, gently right-leaning voters....... The Lib Dems, Greens and Ukip all suffer from the crippling problem, under FPTP, of a lack of a geographic base. Their support is a mile wide (well, after the last election, perhaps only a couple of furlongs wide,) but an inch deep. The Tories, Labour and SNP are the opposite, and predominate accordingly. The Lib Dems need ...a strategy to try to keep themselves from being wiped out again .....

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B2, did I tip otherwise [can't remember]?

Mr. Sandpit, my stake on this is smaller. I'm still at the pre-wealthy phase of the Four Yorkshiremen

It's all relative. A pint in my local is £9 now, thanks to the devaluation of Sterling. So if I watch at home rather than in the pub, and don't have two pints and a taxi, there's the betting money.

malcolmg said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nice.

'Student stabbed in neck with smashed bottle 'for speaking Polish' in Telford'

http://tinyurl.com/he4e998

Let me guess, this is within the normal parameters of xenophobic violence, statistically insignificant and nought to do with Brexit.

I find the reporting of individual cases like this to make some sort of wider point bizarre, mendacious and reprehensible. By contrast, the rape of thousands in Rotherham HAD statistical significance and went unreported for years. It's purely and simply manipulation of people's emotional responses to believe a narrative, helped along by permanently outraged dimwits on social media.

I don't rememeber weekly stabbings, beatings and murders of Polish people before the xenophobia started recently.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Sandpit said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B2, did I tip otherwise [can't remember]?

Mr. Sandpit, my stake on this is smaller. I'm still at the pre-wealthy phase of the Four Yorkshiremen

It's all relative. A pint in my local is £9 now, thanks to the devaluation of Sterling. So if I watch at home rather than in the pub, and don't have two pints and a taxi, there's the betting money.

£9! Blimey. Are you hobnobbing with Roger in Monte Carlo or somewhere?