Yet we will be hearing Lib Dem revival claims at their Conference. Delusional.
Saw tweet from Farron earlier saying West Country would be their revival...
Do the Lib Dems have an offer which will particularly and specifically appeal to the kinds of voters found in the West Country - something that will give them an offer that is inherently more attractive than that of any other party, amongst a large slice of the electorate and for a long period of time? In other words, can they do what the Conservatives have in most of the South, or Labour in the inner cities: command such a huge proportion of the total electorate that they can make most of the their seats virtually invulnerable, and continue to hold them by reduced majorities even when hit by huge swings? Well, what do we think?
The Lib Dems built up a lot of popularity and a strong party membership base in the South West, but they never achieved a position of dominance with a big cohort of natural supporters. Hence the fact that their large vote turned out to be as soft as butter, and the Tories (and, actually, Labour to a lesser but still significant extent) were able to melt great chunks off of it.
There's a reason why the West Country Lib Dems were all wiped out by Tories, yet a handful of Labour holdouts (in Exeter, and all three seats in Bristol) survived. The Tories and Labour both command mass voter loyalty. The Lib Dems simply don't.
Their Europhilia will see the LibDems making no progress at all in the South West.
I doubt that statement. Wait until the end of CAP hits.
Most Parliamentary seats are won on less than 48% of the vote too.
If we had AV, and everyone were as obsessed with Europe as the frothers, then you might have a point.
I hope you know more about medicine than you do about farming! Lambs are currently making £80, up from £70 before Brexit. The farmers I am talking to in the SW are as happy as Larry on his holidays about Brexit....
In case anyone is short of something to do on a Saturday night in a few minutes that historical masterpiece Braveheart is about to start on More4
Newzoids also just started on ITV, began with Boris, Davis and Hammond giving Cameron a 'send off' by holding his head down the loo with May cackling in the background! Now Owen Smith and Ed Miliband
It does look good for HC, but as I said NC may be unusual because of particular publicity there about manipulating early voting by the Republicans.
Yes, I can imagine there are quite a few furious Dems getting their voting in as early as possible to spite the legislature.
Not sure we can analyse whether more early votes for one party vs the other is good or bad for the overall vote. In the past, the earliest voters have overlapped with those most certain to vote. Remember, early voters can't also be later voters.
Yet we will be hearing Lib Dem revival claims at their Conference. Delusional.
Saw tweet from Farron earlier saying West Country would be their revival...
Do the Lib Dems have an offer which will particularly and specifically appeal to the kinds of voters found in the West Country - something that will give them an offer that is inherently more attractive than that of any other party, amongst a large slice of the electorate and for a long period of time? In other words, can they do what the Conservatives have in most of the South, or Labour in the inner cities: command such a huge proportion of the total electorate that they can make most of the their seats virtually invulnerable, and continue to hold them by reduced majorities even when hit by huge swings? Well, what do we think?
The Lib Dems built up a lot of popularity and a strong party membership base in the South West, but they never achieved a position of dominance with a big cohort of natural supporters. Hence the fact that their large vote turned out to be as soft as butter, and the Tories (and, actually, Labour to a lesser but still significant extent) were able to melt great chunks off of it.
There's a reason why the West Country Lib Dems were all wiped out by Tories, yet a handful of Labour holdouts (in Exeter, and all three seats in Bristol) survived. The Tories and Labour both command mass voter loyalty. The Lib Dems simply don't.
Their Europhilia will see the LibDems making no progress at all in the South West.
I doubt that statement. Wait until the end of CAP hits.
Most Parliamentary seats are won on less than 48% of the vote too.
If we had AV, and everyone were as obsessed with Europe as the frothers, then you might have a point.
I hope you know more about medicine than you do about farming! Lambs are currently making £80, up from £70 before Brexit. The farmers I am talking to in the SW are as happy as Larry on his holidays about Brexit....
But what does he know about AV? New thread..... ?
Everything that I know about AV was learnt here.
Still, it is always worth a recap, not least because it is not about bloody grammar schools....
Seems like Trump guessed the new password on his Twitter account. Last few tweets have been the real Donald.
Someone should acquaint him with Johann Hari. It seems he's accusing a NY Times journalist of the same kind of thing.
I think Jayston Blair would be enough for the NYT to blush over still!
What is the egregious liar, forger and Wikipedia addict doing these days, anyway?
Anyhow, I do think your review of the lad is a trifle unfair, my good doctor. David Rose is a splendid writer of ethnic psychological horror. How can anyone who has read it forget How my little brother learned to be a whore ever forget just how disturbing it is, not least for its racial connotations?
He undoubtedly has a remarkable habit for highly fantasised pornographic fiction.
Off topic: I was talking yesterday to a Thai lady who had recently been through the UK citizenship process; she was asking me how many feet tall was the London Eye, in what year Big Ben was built and about the wives of Henry VIII, and it was only with the latter that I could offer any concrete knowledge. They have to pay to do the test, and if they don't pass then pay again for a re-test, and I couldn't help wonder in what way we are all better off from having immigrants who know the precise height of a sixteen-year-old ferris wheel on the Thames?
...It will then be transfered to a Spitfire then dropped in a bouncing bomb...
(pedant-mode-on) Lancaster, not Spitfire (pedant-mode-off)
We can select a nationalist version of Danny Boyle to choreograph and scrip the whole thing and iron out historical details. We might as well have a cameo from Her Maj and Daniel Craig as well.
Off topic: I was talking yesterday to a Thai lady who had recently been through the UK citizenship process; she was asking me how many feet tall was the London Eye, in what year Big Ben was built and about the wives of Henry VIII, and it was only with the latter that I could offer any concrete knowledge. They have to pay to do the test, and if they don't pass then pay again for a re-test, and I couldn't help wonder in what way we are all better off from having immigrants who know the precise height of a sixteen-year-old ferris wheel on the Thames?
Hungary is holding a referendum next month on ending EU migrant quotas being applied on the country, something which has led to Luxembourg's Foreign Minister calling for it to be potentially expelled from the EU. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens while no Muslim refugees are welcomed over their borders in return
Off topic: I was talking yesterday to a Thai lady who had recently been through the UK citizenship process; she was asking me how many feet tall was the London Eye, in what year Big Ben was built and about the wives of Henry VIII, and it was only with the latter that I could offer any concrete knowledge. They have to pay to do the test, and if they don't pass then pay again for a re-test, and I couldn't help wonder in what way we are all better off from having immigrants who know the precise height of a sixteen-year-old ferris wheel on the Thames?
I have had erudite discussions with colleagues taking the test over the Wars of the Roses.
Obviously useful knowledge(!) But in practice a barrier to non-English speakers taking out citizenship.
Yet we will be hearing Lib Dem revival claims at their Conference. Delusional.
Saw tweet from Farron earlier saying West Country would be their revival...
Do the Lib Dems have an offer which will particularly and specifically appeal to the kinds of voters found in the West Country - something that will give them an offer that is inherently more attractive than that of any other party, amongst a large slice of the electorate and for a long period of time? In other words, can they do what the Conservatives have in most of the South, or Labour in the inner cities: command such a huge proportion of the total electorate that they can make most of the their seats virtually invulnerable, and continue to hold them by reduced majorities even when hit by huge swings? Well, what do we think?
The Lib Dems built up a lot of popularity and a strong party membership base in the South West, but they never achieved a position of dominance with a big cohort of natural supporters. Hence the fact that their large vote turned out to be as soft as butter, and the Tories (and, actually, Labour to a lesser but still significant extent) were able to melt great chunks off of it.
There's a reason why the West Country Lib Dems were all wiped out by Tories, yet a handful of Labour holdouts (in Exeter, and all three seats in Bristol) survived. The Tories and Labour both command mass voter loyalty. The Lib Dems simply don't.
Their Europhilia will see the LibDems making no progress at all in the South West.
I doubt that statement. Wait until the end of CAP hits.
Most Parliamentary seats are won on less than 48% of the vote too.
If we had AV, and everyone were as obsessed with Europe as the frothers, then you might have a point.
I hope you know more about medicine than you do about farming! Lambs are currently making £80, up from £70 before Brexit. The farmers I am talking to in the SW are as happy as Larry on his holidays about Brexit....
But what does he know about AV? New thread..... ?
Everything that I know about AV was learnt here.
Still, it is always worth a recap, not least because it is not about bloody grammar schools....
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
Off topic: I was talking yesterday to a Thai lady who had recently been through the UK citizenship process; she was asking me how many feet tall was the London Eye, in what year Big Ben was built and about the wives of Henry VIII, and it was only with the latter that I could offer any concrete knowledge. They have to pay to do the test, and if they don't pass then pay again for a re-test, and I couldn't help wonder in what way we are all better off from having immigrants who know the precise height of a sixteen-year-old ferris wheel on the Thames?
I have had erudite discussions with colleagues taking the test over the Wars of the Roses.
Obviously useful knowledge(!) But in practice a barrier to non-English speakers taking out citizenship.
'The US Central Command statement said the coalition believed it was attacking positions of so-called Islamic State and the raids were "halted immediately when coalition officials were informed by Russian officials that it was possible the personnel and vehicles targeted were part of the Syrian military". It said the "Combined Air Operations Center had earlier informed Russian counterparts of the upcoming strike". It added: "Syria is a complex situation with various military forces and militias in close proximity, but coalition forces would not intentionally strike a known Syrian military unit. The coalition will review this strike and the circumstances surrounding it to see if any lessons can be learned." Russia's defence ministry earlier said that if the US air strikes did turn out to be an error, it would be because of Washington's stubborn refusal to co-ordinate military action with Moscow. Only if the current ceasefire - which began on Monday - holds for seven days, will the US and Russia begin co-ordinated action against the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham group, which was previously known as the al-Nusra Front, and IS. '
The Visegrad Group doesn't have a veto either individually or collectively. The A50 agreement is agreed by QMV. As the EP needs to " consent " it could be described as having a veto.
The visegrad 4 have announced that they would veto any Brexit agreement in they do not get freedom of movement for their citizens.
So they are in effect threatening us with a hard Brexit? Do they realise that they will be negotiating with David Davis?
It is why we should plan for hard Brexit. It is the default position.
Davis wants hard Brexit but also a free trade agreement, however the latter is unlikely, at least in the short term, if the former occurs and no concessions at all are made by the UK on free movement. Trade could be based on WTO rules in the meantime provided Hillary wins the US presidency, if Trump wins the WTO will likely have collapsed by 2019
Off topic: I was talking yesterday to a Thai lady who had recently been through the UK citizenship process; she was asking me how many feet tall was the London Eye, in what year Big Ben was built and about the wives of Henry VIII, and it was only with the latter that I could offer any concrete knowledge. They have to pay to do the test, and if they don't pass then pay again for a re-test, and I couldn't help wonder in what way we are all better off from having immigrants who know the precise height of a sixteen-year-old ferris wheel on the Thames?
I have had erudite discussions with colleagues taking the test over the Wars of the Roses.
Obviously useful knowledge(!) But in practice a barrier to non-English speakers taking out citizenship.
There is an obvious solution - learn English
I think that is the intention. It also requires literacy in English and a reasonable level of education. All perfectly valid in my book, as long as they can take it in Welsh and Gallic as an option.
Off topic: I was talking yesterday to a Thai lady who had recently been through the UK citizenship process; she was asking me how many feet tall was the London Eye, in what year Big Ben was built and about the wives of Henry VIII, and it was only with the latter that I could offer any concrete knowledge. They have to pay to do the test, and if they don't pass then pay again for a re-test, and I couldn't help wonder in what way we are all better off from having immigrants who know the precise height of a sixteen-year-old ferris wheel on the Thames?
I have had erudite discussions with colleagues taking the test over the Wars of the Roses.
Obviously useful knowledge(!) But in practice a barrier to non-English speakers taking out citizenship.
There is an obvious solution - learn English
There was a moving piece in the New European by a German who tried to go through the citizenship process after 14 years here. The test bit was particularly grim.
So in looking into the North Carolina eraly voting stuff I've found that you can download a 858 megabyte text file from the NC Governmet website that contains info on the early voting for 2012 (similar files exists for every other state election). I didn't know what it contained but from listing the first 1000 lines it look like it is the name, address, age, congressional district etc of every single person who voted early in the 2012 election (there are similar files for all other state elections), includes the date they voted on.
Bonkers. The level of GOTV targeting you could do with this data is unimaginable.
. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens
The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.
...It will then be transfered to a Spitfire then dropped in a bouncing bomb...
(pedant-mode-on) Lancaster, not Spitfire (pedant-mode-off)
We can select a nationalist version of Danny Boyle to choreograph and scrip the whole thing and iron out historical details. We might as well have a cameo from Her Maj and Daniel Craig as well.
I'm thinking having Mary Poppins drop in with Article 50 might be cheaper than the Lancaster.. and less, well, antagonistic to the Germans....
...It will then be transfered to a Spitfire then dropped in a bouncing bomb...
(pedant-mode-on) Lancaster, not Spitfire (pedant-mode-off)
We can select a nationalist version of Danny Boyle to choreograph and scrip the whole thing and iron out historical details. We might as well have a cameo from Her Maj and Daniel Craig as well.
I'm thinking having Mary Poppins drop in with Article 50 might be cheaper than the Lancaster.. and less, well, antagonistic to the Germans....
I seem to remember Mary Poppins had a way with making bits of paper disappear into thin air. Perhaps that's our revocation mechanism too?
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
Off topic: I was talking yesterday to a Thai lady who had recently been through the UK citizenship process; she was asking me how many feet tall was the London Eye, in what year Big Ben was built and about the wives of Henry VIII, and it was only with the latter that I could offer any concrete knowledge. They have to pay to do the test, and if they don't pass then pay again for a re-test, and I couldn't help wonder in what way we are all better off from having immigrants who know the precise height of a sixteen-year-old ferris wheel on the Thames?
I have had erudite discussions with colleagues taking the test over the Wars of the Roses.
Obviously useful knowledge(!) But in practice a barrier to non-English speakers taking out citizenship.
There is an obvious solution - learn English
I think that is the intention. It also requires literacy in English and a reasonable level of education. All perfectly valid in my book, as long as they can take it in Welsh and Gallic as an option.
What? Gallic? The roof would fly off the House of Commons at the thought of bringing back French!!!
Or did you mean Gaelic, one of four languages native to Scotland?
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
...It will then be transfered to a Spitfire then dropped in a bouncing bomb...
(pedant-mode-on) Lancaster, not Spitfire (pedant-mode-off)
We can select a nationalist version of Danny Boyle to choreograph and scrip the whole thing and iron out historical details. We might as well have a cameo from Her Maj and Daniel Craig as well.
I'm thinking having Mary Poppins drop in with Article 50 might be cheaper than the Lancaster.. and less, well, antagonistic to the Germans....
I seem to remember Mary Poppins had a way with making bits of paper disappear into thin air. Perhaps that's our revocation mechanism too?
"A spoonful of Brexit helps the medicine go down The medicine go dow-own The medicine go down Just a spoonful of Brexit helps the medicine go down In a most delightful way"
. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens
The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.
Merkel will not be happy with Germany being forced to accept more refugees because some Eastern EU nations refuse to have any, especially given the rise of the Afd.
Given his role in Brexit, might it not be appropriate to write our Article 50 declaration on a cricket ball - and have Beefy Botham bowl it to Juncker?
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
Indeed. I don't think we have much to fear from a hard Brexit. If (in extremis) we drop to WTO rules, then we add 4% tax to all importers, and all exporters have to pay an extra 4% on exports. So we take the tax from the importers and give it to the exporters, and we are even again.
It works because of the level of EU imports we have. If the EU decide to play hard ball, they are going to look stupid.
I have had erudite discussions with colleagues taking the test over the Wars of the Roses.
Obviously useful knowledge(!) But in practice a barrier to non-English speakers taking out citizenship.
There is an obvious solution - learn English
I think that is the intention. It also requires literacy in English and a reasonable level of education. All perfectly valid in my book, as long as they can take it in Welsh and Gallic as an option.
The underlying issue here is the clash between the "valuable" and the "testable".
I think the bulk of the British public would prefer admission of foreigners to our citizenry to be based on values, and the test is a sop to that - means there's more to it than "time served in the UK". (There are many people who have been in the UK for decades and don't speak any English, don't watch British TV or read British newspapers, and have no real cultural connection to the UK whatsoever - often harmless elderly Asian ladies. But most people don't think it's good for us as a society, and I'm also pretty sure it's not good for them as people to be so cut off from the place they live in. Isn't going to make essential service delivery like health and social carer any easier or cheaper in the future, either.)
But the closest proxy we can achieve is "cultural literacy"... from which we can only draw on that small subset which is well-suited to the multiple choice question. In fact MCQs largely strip out the nuance and debate that should be at the heart of cultural literacy.
I'm not sure that renders them completely worthless, but if its main achievement is a string of Tuition Centres helping - at a price -the poor sods to memorize as many random useless factoids as possible, then some introspection wouldn't go amiss. Perhaps some improvements could be found.
(Given the precarious state of some of our Gaelic and Welsh speaking communities, I've often wondered if immigrants shouldn't get some kind of "bonus points" for passing a language test in one of the two. What would that achieve? Well above the takeaways and Polish delis of London, signs will soon announce the upstairs offices house the East London College of Computing and Gaelic, or the Ilford Institute of Welsh and Management...)
I now have a vision of the A50 notification written on vellum being carried on the relaunched Britannia ( by either Miranda Richardson or Theresa May dressed up as Elizabeth the First at Tilbury Docks ) across the channel in a flotilla of oligarchs superyachts. It will then be transfered to a Spitfire then dropped in a bouncing bomb along the River before crashing into the European Commission building.
Certainly puts my idea of having May appear before the European Commission in holographic form and simply declaring "Execute Article 50"
...It will then be transfered to a Spitfire then dropped in a bouncing bomb...
(pedant-mode-on) Lancaster, not Spitfire (pedant-mode-off)
We can select a nationalist version of Danny Boyle to choreograph and scrip the whole thing and iron out historical details. We might as well have a cameo from Her Maj and Daniel Craig as well.
I'm thinking having Mary Poppins drop in with Article 50 might be cheaper than the Lancaster.. and less, well, antagonistic to the Germans....
My geeky Alternative British Nationalism is now in full swing. The High Council of the Time Lords summon all 13 Doctors to prevent A50 being invoked in this timeline as it's all a Dark plot.....
I now have a vision of the A50 notification written on vellum being carried on the relaunched Britannia ( by either Miranda Richardson or Theresa May dressed up as Elizabeth the First at Tilbury Docks ) across the channel in a flotilla of oligarchs superyachts. It will then be transfered to a Spitfire then dropped in a bouncing bomb along the River before crashing into the European Commission building.
Certainly puts my idea of having May appear before the European Commission in holographic form and simply declaring "Execute Article 50"
"Commander Davis, the time has come. Execute Order 66, I mean Article 50!"
So in looking into the North Carolina eraly voting stuff I've found that you can download a 858 megabyte text file from the NC Governmet website that contains info on the early voting for 2012 (similar files exists for every other state election). I didn't know what it contained but from listing the first 1000 lines it look like it is the name, address, age, congressional district etc of every single person who voted early in the 2012 election (there are similar files for all other state elections), includes the date they voted on.
Bonkers. The level of GOTV targeting you could do with this data is unimaginable.
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
Indeed. I don't think we have much to fear from a hard Brexit. If (in extremis) we drop to WTO rules, then we add 4% tax to all importers, and all exporters have to pay an extra 4% on exports. So we take the tax from the importers and give it to the exporters, and we are even again.
It works because of the level of EU imports we have. If the EU decide to play hard ball, they are going to look stupid.
Indeed, given we have more imports than exports to the EU we may even get a slight surplus. However that assumes Trump does not win and the WTO does not collapse as a result!
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
Not when they are a greater proportion of our trade than we are of theirs. Your fact is one of the rather dodgy claims put about by vote leave during EUref.
'The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.'
If we end up with hard Brexit then all existing arrangements including employment rights for EU citizens currently working in the UK will be open for change.
After all, if the experts are correct and our economy shrinks, we won't need so many EU nationals in or workforce and priority will need to be given to UK nationals that will be unemployed due to hard Brexit.. .
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
It seems to me that the character of the interim trade arrangements post-Brexit will take on a critical dimension as no FTA is going to be in place at A50 + 2yrs. WTO or EEA are the only off the shelf arrangements. Could EEA be sold as a temporary safe berth as straight to WTO could be highly disruptive?
'The visegrad 4 have announced that they would veto any Brexit agreement in they do not get freedom of movement for their citizens.
So they are in effect threatening us with a hard Brexit? Do they realise that they will be negotiating with David Davis?'
That's fine, hopefully they have sufficient job opportunities for the two million or so citizens that may have to return home ?
Freedom of movement can be a two way street.
Don't also forget the job opportunities for the exporters of the €80bn of trade deficit between the U.K. And EU.
Judging by the thinly veiled threats made across the Channel so far, we shouldn't bother negotiating at all. Declare Art 50 on 1st Jan and say that we will leave the EU on 1st Jan 2019, it will be a 'hard' exit and we will use the two years to talk to anyone in the world about trade - starting with Aus, NZ, CA, ZA and maybe even USA - rather than wasting our efforts on the EU who have clearly decided to punish us, in order to send a message to others.
I know have bit of that entertaining Jeffrey Archer thriller going through my mind. There is a secret buy back clause in the Treaty selling Alaska to the US. The sum was unpayable at the time and the Russian copy was lost during the revolution but then comes modern inflation. And a copy surfaces in central Europe....
I have had erudite discussions with colleagues taking the test over the Wars of the Roses.
Obviously useful knowledge(!) But in practice a barrier to non-English speakers taking out citizenship.
There is an obvious solution - learn English
I think that is the intention. It also requires literacy in English and a reasonable level of education. All perfectly valid in my book, as long as they can take it in Welsh and Gallic as an option.
The underlying issue here is the clash between the "valuable" and the "testable".
I think the bulk of the British public would prefer admission of foreigners to our citizenry to be based on values, and the test is a sop to that - means there's more to it than "time served in the UK". (There are many people who have been in the UK for decades and don't speak any English, don't watch British TV or read British newspapers, and have no real cultural connection to the UK whatsoever - often harmless elderly Asian ladies. But most people don't think it's good for us as a society, and I'm also pretty sure it's not good for them as people to be so cut off from the place they live in. Isn't going to make essential service delivery like health and social carer any easier or cheaper in the future, either.)
But the closest proxy we can achieve is "cultural literacy"... from which we can only draw on that small subset which is well-suited to the multiple choice question. In fact MCQs largely strip out the nuance and debate that should be at the heart of cultural literacy.
I'm not sure that renders them completely worthless, but if its main achievement is a string of Tuition Centres helping - at a price -the poor sods to memorize as many random useless factoids as possible, then some introspection wouldn't go amiss. Perhaps some improvements could be found.
(Given the precarious state of some of our Gaelic and Welsh speaking communities, I've often wondered if immigrants shouldn't get some kind of "bonus points" for passing a language test in one of the two. What would that achieve? Well above the takeaways and Polish delis of London, signs will soon announce the upstairs offices house the East London College of Computing and Gaelic, or the Ilford Institute of Welsh and Management...)
We have had such discussions in our Medicine Undergraduate course. In the end the feeling is that it is impossible to memorise 2000 MCQs on anatomy by rote, you have to actually know the subject to do so.
Indeed, given we have more imports than exports to the EU we may even get a slight surplus. However that assumes Trump does not win and the WTO does not collapse as a result!
If Trump wins the fate of the WTO will be one of the least of our worries. In fact if Trump wins we might find that our EU chums are suddenly a bit more friendly and willing to do a deal.
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
Not when they are a greater proportion of our trade than we are of theirs. Your fact is one of the rather dodgy claims put about by vote leave during EUref.
That depends on the nation of course, that may be the case for Hungary or Spain, it is not the case for Germany or Italy I think
Given his role in Brexit, might it not be appropriate to write our Article 50 declaration on a cricket ball - and have Beefy Botham bowl it to Juncker?
As a beamer...
He'd only slip a disk and get stretchered off before advertising cures for article dysfunction.
'The visegrad 4 have announced that they would veto any Brexit agreement in they do not get freedom of movement for their citizens.
So they are in effect threatening us with a hard Brexit? Do they realise that they will be negotiating with David Davis?'
That's fine, hopefully they have sufficient job opportunities for the two million or so citizens that may have to return home ?
Freedom of movement can be a two way street.
Don't also forget the job opportunities for the exporters of the €80bn of trade deficit between the U.K. And EU.
Judging by the thinly veiled threats made across the Channel so far, we shouldn't bother negotiating at all. Declare Art 50 on 1st Jan and say that we will leave the EU on 1st Jan 2019, it will be a 'hard' exit and we will use the two years to talk to anyone in the world about trade - starting with Aus, NZ, CA, ZA and maybe even USA - rather than wasting our efforts on the EU who have clearly decided to punish us, in order to send a message to others.
That is the approach I would advocate, only with A50 being notified sooner.
Though President Trump may not be so keen on free trade as we would like, and may force Hillary to tack to protectionism too for internal political reasons.
Judging by the thinly veiled threats made across the Channel so far, we shouldn't bother negotiating at all. Declare Art 50 on 1st Jan and say that we will leave the EU on 1st Jan 2019, it will be a 'hard' exit and we will use the two years to talk to anyone in the world about trade - starting with Aus, NZ, CA, ZA and maybe even USA - rather than wasting our efforts on the EU who have clearly decided to punish us, in order to send a message to others.
Then we wait. Your move, Mr Drunker.
That would be my starting position. If they want a deal we'll listen, otherwise just pull the plug.
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
It seems to me that the character of the interim trade arrangements post-Brexit will take on a critical dimension as no FTA is going to be in place at A50 + 2yrs. WTO or EEA are the only off the shelf arrangements. Could EEA be sold as a temporary safe berth as straight to WTO could be highly disruptive?
'Judging by the thinly veiled threats made across the Channel so far, we shouldn't bother negotiating at all. Declare Art 50 on 1st Jan and say that we will leave the EU on 1st Jan 2019, it will be a 'hard' exit and we will use the two years to talk to anyone in the world about trade - starting with Aus, NZ, CA, ZA and maybe even USA - rather than wasting our efforts on the EU who have clearly decided to punish us, in order to send a message to others. '
Agree,why waste the time go to WTO & start negotiations with non EU countries that want an agreement.
Judging by the thinly veiled threats made across the Channel so far, we shouldn't bother negotiating at all. Declare Art 50 on 1st Jan and say that we will leave the EU on 1st Jan 2019, it will be a 'hard' exit and we will use the two years to talk to anyone in the world about trade - starting with Aus, NZ, CA, ZA and maybe even USA - rather than wasting our efforts on the EU who have clearly decided to punish us, in order to send a message to others.
Then we wait. Your move, Mr Drunker.
That would be my starting position. If they want a deal we'll listen, otherwise just pull the plug.
I now have a vision of the A50 notification written on vellum being carried on the relaunched Britannia ( by either Miranda Richardson or Theresa May dressed up as Elizabeth the First at Tilbury Docks ) across the channel in a flotilla of oligarchs superyachts. It will then be transfered to a Spitfire then dropped in a bouncing bomb along the River before crashing into the European Commission building.
Certainly puts my idea of having May appear before the European Commission in holographic form and simply declaring "Execute Article 50"
... to shame. That's what I get for writing a post while walking out of a plane.
Indeed, given we have more imports than exports to the EU we may even get a slight surplus. However that assumes Trump does not win and the WTO does not collapse as a result!
If Trump wins the fate of the WTO will be one of the least of our worries. In fact if Trump wins we might find that our EU chums are suddenly a bit more friendly and willing to do a deal.
Provided Trump's win does not catapult Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders to power first, in which case the EU may collapse before Brexit talks have really started anyway!
I know have bit of that entertaining Jeffrey Archer thriller going through my mind. There is a secret buy back clause in the Treaty selling Alaska to the US. The sum was unpayable at the time and the Russian copy was lost during the revolution but then comes modern inflation. And a copy surfaces in central Europe....
Was it... raises finger to corner of mouth... one million dollars?
. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens
The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.
Merkel will not be happy with Germany being forced to accept more refugees because some Eastern EU nations refuse to have any, especially given the rise of the Afd.
All part of the infinitely complex game of 28-dimensional chess, which is liable to end with a compromise that gives everyone some of what they want, but leaves no-one really happy.
Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.
I have had erudite discussions with colleagues taking the test over the Wars of the Roses.
Obviously useful knowledge(!) But in practice a barrier to non-English speakers taking out citizenship.
There is an obvious solution - learn English
I on.
The underlying issue here is the clash between the "valuable" and the "testable".
I think the bulk of the British public would prefer admission of foreigners to our citizenry to be based on values, and the test is a sop to that - means there's more to it than "time served in the UK". (There are many people who have been in the UK for decades and don't speak any English - often harmless elderly Asian ladies. But most people don't think it's good for us as a society, and I'm also pretty sure it's not good for them. Isn't going to make essential service delivery like health and social carer any easier or cheaper in the future, either.)
But the closest proxy we can achieve is "cultural literacy"... from which we can only draw on that small subset which is well-suited to the multiple choice question. In fact MCQs largely strip out the nuance and debate that should be at the heart of cultural literacy.
I'm not sure that renders them completely worthless, but if its main achievement is a string of Tuition Centres helping - at a price -the poor sods to memorize as many random useless factoids as possible, then some introspection wouldn't go amiss. Perhaps some improvements could be found.
(Given the precarious state of some of our Gaelic and Welsh speaking communities, I've often wondered if immigrants shouldn't get some kind of "bonus points" for passing a language test in one of the two. What would that achieve? Well above the takeaways and Polish delis of London, signs will soon announce the upstairs offices house the East London College of Computing and Gaelic, or the Ilford Institute of Welsh and Management...)
Ilford recently had it's very own "Empire College London", obviously a play on Imperial College London
I think that is the intention. It also requires literacy in English and a reasonable level of education. All perfectly valid in my book, as long as they can take it in Welsh and Gallic as an option.
The underlying issue here is the clash between the "valuable" and the "testable".
I think the bulk of the British public would prefer admission of foreigners to our citizenry to be based on values, and the test is a sop to that - means there's more to it than "time served in the UK". (There are many people who have been in the UK for decades and don't speak any English, don't watch British TV or read British newspapers, and have no real cultural connection to the UK whatsoever - often harmless elderly Asian ladies. But most people don't think it's good for us as a society, and I'm also pretty sure it's not good for them as people to be so cut off from the place they live in. Isn't going to make essential service delivery like health and social carer any easier or cheaper in the future, either.)
But the closest proxy we can achieve is "cultural literacy"... from which we can only draw on that small subset which is well-suited to the multiple choice question. In fact MCQs largely strip out the nuance and debate that should be at the heart of cultural literacy.
I'm not sure that renders them completely worthless, but if its main achievement is a string of Tuition Centres helping - at a price -the poor sods to memorize as many random useless factoids as possible, then some introspection wouldn't go amiss. Perhaps some improvements could be found.
(Given the precarious state of some of our Gaelic and Welsh speaking communities, I've often wondered if immigrants shouldn't get some kind of "bonus points" for passing a language test in one of the two. What would that achieve? Well above the takeaways and Polish delis of London, signs will soon announce the upstairs offices house the East London College of Computing and Gaelic, or the Ilford Institute of Welsh and Management...)
We have had such discussions in our Medicine Undergraduate course. In the end the feeling is that it is impossible to memorise 2000 MCQs on anatomy by rote, you have to actually know the subject to do so.
That's interesting, and presumably by design that the questions are too complex and numerous that someone could learn them as a memory exercise, without actually knowing the subject?
I'd rather a medical student read his books and listened to his tutors, rather than spending his effort trying to memorise the answers to the test!
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
It seems to me that the character of the interim trade arrangements post-Brexit will take on a critical dimension as no FTA is going to be in place at A50 + 2yrs. WTO or EEA are the only off the shelf arrangements. Could EEA be sold as a temporary safe berth as straight to WTO could be highly disruptive?
Nope, as EEA requires free movement
You seem to have changed your tune, Mr HYUFD! You used to be very sceptical of hard Brexit. I wonder if EEA with an emergency brake might be possible for a while. Straight to WTO could stir quite a panic.
'Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.'
'The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.'
If we end up with hard Brexit then all existing arrangements including employment rights for EU citizens currently working in the UK will be open for change.
After all, if the experts are correct and our economy shrinks, we won't need so many EU nationals in or workforce and priority will need to be given to UK nationals that will be unemployed due to hard Brexit.. .
EU nationals (and indeed non-EU ones) with 5 years of residency are able to apply for citizenship, or just permanent residence. A high proportion cannot be threatened with deportation, and I suspect that a high proportion of the remainder are probably spouses and families of those with permanent residence.
'The visegrad 4 have announced that they would veto any Brexit agreement in they do not get freedom of movement for their citizens.
So they are in effect threatening us with a hard Brexit? Do they realise that they will be negotiating with David Davis?'
That's fine, hopefully they have sufficient job opportunities for the two million or so citizens that may have to return home ?
Freedom of movement can be a two way street.
Don't also forget the job opportunities for the exporters of the €80bn of trade deficit between the U.K. And EU.
Judging by the thinly veiled threats made across the Channel so far, we shouldn't bother negotiating at all. Declare Art 50 on 1st Jan and say that we will leave the EU on 1st Jan 2019, it will be a 'hard' exit and we will use the two years to talk to anyone in the world about trade - starting with Aus, NZ, CA, ZA and maybe even USA - rather than wasting our efforts on the EU who have clearly decided to punish us, in order to send a message to others.
That is the approach I would advocate, only with A50 being notified sooner.
Though President Trump may not be so keen on free trade as we would like, and may force Hillary to tack to protectionism too for internal political reasons.
Though given Trump backed Brexit if he does do a free trade deal he is more likely to do one with the UK first than the EU
Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.
Especially with President Trump not necessarily leaving NATO but certainly expecting other members to pull their weight.
. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens
The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.
Merkel will not be happy with Germany being forced to accept more refugees because some Eastern EU nations refuse to have any, especially given the rise of the Afd.
All part of the infinitely complex game of 28-dimensional chess, which is liable to end with a compromise that gives everyone some of what they want, but leaves no-one really happy.
Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.
Exactly, the UK and France are the main EU military powers and protectors of Eastern Europe. As Trump would tell them to fend for themselves, they may just want to rely mainly on the French to protect them from Putin!
Calls the grammar messaging a mess, and echoes what I was saying last night, that May's biggest threat will be the Tory moderates, if she can't get a grown up and competent agenda together.
. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens
The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.
Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.
As long as we are part of NATO we are committed to defending Poland and any other Eastern European country that is a member so that is not a bargaining chip that can be played.
We'll get whatever FTA the EU 27 decide they want with us, not the one we want with them. And as CETA and TTIP show, much of Europe isn't that keen on free trade at the moment. That's the nature of sovereignty, they have a sovereign right to decide what deals they sign up to, as do we.
'The visegrad 4 have announced that they would veto any Brexit agreement in they do not get freedom of movement for their citizens.
So they are in effect threatening us with a hard Brexit? Do they realise that they will be negotiating with David Davis?'
That's fine, hopefully they have sufficient job opportunities for the two million or so citizens that may have to return home ?
Freedom of movement can be a two way street.
Don't also forget the job opportunities for the exporters of the €80bn of trade deficit between the U.K. And EU.
Judging by the thinly veiled threats made across the Channel so far, we shouldn't bother negotiating at all. Declare Art 50 on 1st Jan and say that we will leave the EU on 1st Jan 2019, it will be a 'hard' exit and we will use the two years to talk to anyone in the world about trade - starting with Aus, NZ, CA, ZA and maybe even USA - rather than wasting our efforts on the EU who have clearly decided to punish us, in order to send a message to others.
That is the approach I would advocate, only with A50 being notified sooner.
Though President Trump may not be so keen on free trade as we would like, and may force Hillary to tack to protectionism too for internal political reasons.
Art 50 declaration in 2016 was 25/1 last time I checked Betfair.
I think Trump might be amenable to a deal with Britain. He knows the place well, we speak the same language and have similar aims. We're not going to undercut their wages or ship huge numbers of jobs away from the US.
. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens
The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.
Merkel will not be happy with Germany being forced to accept more refugees because some Eastern EU nations refuse to have any, especially given the rise of the Afd.
All part of the infinitely complex game of 28-dimensional chess, which is liable to end with a compromise that gives everyone some of what they want, but leaves no-one really happy.
Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.
Exactly, the UK and France are the main EU military powers and protectors of Eastern Europe. As Trump would tell them to fend for themselves, they may just want to rely mainly on the French to protect them from Putin!
SKY news have just told us the UK can't defend itself from countries like Russia
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
According to this logic, Amazon has more to fear from me than I from them.
. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens
The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.
Merkel will not be happy with Germany being forced to accept more refugees because some Eastern EU nations refuse to have any, especially given the rise of the Afd.
All part of the infinitely complex game of 28-dimensional chess, which is liable to end with a compromise that gives everyone some of what they want, but leaves no-one really happy.
Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.
Exactly, the UK and France are the main EU military powers and protectors of Eastern Europe. As Trump would tell them to fend for themselves, they may just want to rely mainly on the French to protect them from Putin!
Lets hope they don't see todays news reports then.
'The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.'
If we end up with hard Brexit then all existing arrangements including employment rights for EU citizens currently working in the UK will be open for change.
After all, if the experts are correct and our economy shrinks, we won't need so many EU nationals in or workforce and priority will need to be given to UK nationals that will be unemployed due to hard Brexit.. .
EU nationals (and indeed non-EU ones) with 5 years of residency are able to apply for citizenship, or just permanent residence. A high proportion cannot be threatened with deportation, and I suspect that a high proportion of the remainder are probably spouses and families of those with permanent residence.
I can imagine it now. 2035 and PAC are holding hearings into the failure of G4S mass deportation contract. The failure of Capita's Work Visa contract meant G4S couldn't get the immigrant labour it needed to do the job properly. Though the 4 Paralypians, 3 VC holders and a brown Canadian they reported by accident were clerical errors not Labour shortages.
. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens
The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.
Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.
As long as we are part of NATO we are committed to defending Poland and any other Eastern European country that is a member so that is not a bargaining chip that can be played.
We'll get whatever FTA the EU 27 decide they want with us, not the one we want with them. And as CETA and TTIP show, much of Europe isn't that keen on free trade at the moment. That's the nature of sovereignty, they have a sovereign right to decide what deals they sign up to, as do we.
Again, not if NATO collapses too, which is highly likely in the event of a Trump presidency. Of course if they agree no FTA agreement with us and restrict our exports to the UK then of May would restrict EU exports to the UK in response
'EU nationals (and indeed non-EU ones) with 5 years of residency are able to apply for citizenship, or just permanent residence. A high proportion cannot be threatened with deportation, and I suspect that a high proportion of the remainder are probably spouses and families of those with permanent residence.'
Of course those rules can be changed as everything will be 'off the table'
Rumainian & Bulgarian nationals have only been allowed freedom of movement for work since January 2015 and if the immigration numbers are to be believed we average over 1 million immigrants every 3 years of which at least half are EU nationals.
Calls the grammar messaging a mess, and echoes what I was saying last night, that May's biggest threat will be the Tory moderates, if she can't get a grown up and competent agenda together.
Apparently even Hammond is pushing back on May.
A clear majority of Tory members back May and more grammars, Tory 'moderates' and Remain/Cameroon diehards now have almost as little influence in the Tory Party as Blairites and moderates do within Labour!
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
Indeed. I don't think we have much to fear from a hard Brexit. If (in extremis) we drop to WTO rules, then we add 4% tax to all importers, and all exporters have to pay an extra 4% on exports. So we take the tax from the importers and give it to the exporters, and we are even again.
It works because of the level of EU imports we have. If the EU decide to play hard ball, they are going to look stupid.
Indeed, given we have more imports than exports to the EU we may even get a slight surplus. However that assumes Trump does not win and the WTO does not collapse as a result!
We may have a surplus on a significantly diminished economy.
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
According to this logic, Amazon has more to fear from me than I from them.
Ilford recently had it's very own "Empire College London", obviously a play on Imperial College London
Spotting the ever-changing names of the colleges of Ilford, often above chip shops and the like, is one of the delights of visiting Redbridge. Others I've seen in East London include clones of Oxford and Cambridge, and many not-quite-direct-copies of the prestigious London Business School.
One sees adverts for them on billboards and round tube/train stations in the area, and the smaller colleges even advertise with handwritten A6-size small ads posted in the window displays of East Ham newsagents! The more obviously dodgy places make it very clear, in large print, the UK visa you'll be granted for attending and the number of hours you'll be legally entitled to work part-time due to your a migrant student status... and have scant, if any, details about the content of the course itself. Even the usual tripe about the "employability" of the vacuously generic skills one gets from most colleges goes AWOL at these places. There's also little focus on academic entry requirements, unless it's to advertise how low they are!
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
It seems to me that the character of the interim trade arrangements post-Brexit will take on a critical dimension as no FTA is going to be in place at A50 + 2yrs. WTO or EEA are the only off the shelf arrangements. Could EEA be sold as a temporary safe berth as straight to WTO could be highly disruptive?
Nope, as EEA requires free movement
You seem to have changed your tune, Mr HYUFD! You used to be very sceptical of hard Brexit. I wonder if EEA with an emergency brake might be possible for a while. Straight to WTO could stir quite a panic.
I still am and ideally would like at least some limited single market access, however if the EU is not willing to compromise at all then hard Brexit it will be and while May could just about get away with permanent controls on free movement an emergency brake is probably too much for most voters to bear
I think that is the intention. It also requires literacy in English and a reasonable level of education. All perfectly valid in my book, as long as they can take it in Welsh and Gallic as an option.
I think the bulk of the British public would prefer admission of foreigners to our citizenry to be based on values, and the test is a sop to that - means there's more to it than "time served in the UK". (There are many people who have been in the UK for decades and don't speak any English, don't watch British TV or read British newspapers, and have no real cultural connection to the UK whatsoever - often harmless elderly Asian ladies. But most people don't think it's good for us as a society, and I'm also pretty sure it's not good for them as people to be so cut off from the place they live in. Isn't going to make essential service delivery like health and social carer any easier or cheaper in the future, either.)
But the closest proxy we I'm not sure that renders them completely worthless, but if its main achievement is a string of Tuition Centres helping - at a price -the poor sods to memorize as many random useless factoids as possible, then some introspection wouldn't go amiss. Perhaps some improvements could be found.
(Given the precarious state of some of our Gaelic and Welsh speaking communities, I've often wondered if immigrants shouldn't get some kind of "bonus points" for passing a language test in one of the two. What would that achieve? Well above the takeaways and Polish delis of London, signs will soon announce the upstairs offices house the East London College of Computing and Gaelic, or the Ilford Institute of Welsh and Management...)
We have had such discussions in our Medicine Undergraduate course. In the end the feeling is that it is impossible to memorise 2000 MCQs on anatomy by rote, you have to actually know the subject to do so.
That's interesting, and presumably by design that the questions are too complex and numerous that someone could learn them as a memory exercise, without actually knowing the subject?
I'd rather a medical student read his books and listened to his tutors, rather than spending his effort trying to memorise the answers to the test!
As far as I could see the principal consequence is to support a minor industry of citizenship test pre-coaching courses and websites that potential applicants end up paying for, before they start paying for the actual testing itself. Most of the knowledge they gain is obscure facts about Britain that few actual Britons will know themselves.
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
It seems to me that the character of the interim trade arrangements post-Brexit will take on a critical dimension as no FTA is going to be in place at A50 + 2yrs. WTO or EEA are the only off the shelf arrangements. Could EEA be sold as a temporary safe berth as straight to WTO could be highly disruptive?
As long as we are part of NATO we are committed to defending Poland and any other Eastern European country that is a member so that is not a bargaining chip that can be played.
That's only partly the issue, an obligation needs to be met with commitment. NATO members are obliged to support one another, only a few can really do so. If the US decides it wants to spend a lot less on defence in Europe the other NATO members will face some very tough choices.
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
It seems to me that the character of the interim trade arrangements post-Brexit will take on a critical dimension as no FTA is going to be in place at A50 + 2yrs. WTO or EEA are the only off the shelf arrangements. Could EEA be sold as a temporary safe berth as straight to WTO could be highly disruptive?
Indeed, the 'some limited control on migration' deal he talks about is what I think May will do, however it will not be enough for the hardcore Tory right and UKIP, though it may be enough for most Tory voters and the country as a whole
And we mustn't confuse the A50 agreement, the eventual FTA and any transitional arrangements to bridge the gap between the two. But the point is once you invoke the count down clock on Hard Brexit begins. The leaving states negotiating position deteriorates by the day. Basically no sort of Soft Brexit can be negotiated in just two years. A50 is written to protect the continuity EU. The added problem is our relative size and location. We're too big to bully completely but not big enough like Germany to bring the whole show down. The fact that MAD isn't assured increases the risk of someone going nuclear. In this sense a mid sized € country might be in a stronger position.
The EU exports more to the UK than the UK does to the EU, arguably they have more to lose from a fully hard Brexit than we do
Indeed. I don't think we have much to fear from a hard Brexit. If (in extremis) we drop to WTO rules, then we add 4% tax to all importers, and all exporters have to pay an extra 4% on exports. So we take the tax from the importers and give it to the exporters, and we are even again.
It works because of the level of EU imports we have. If the EU decide to play hard ball, they are going to look stupid.
I don't think it is that simple. I just got paid today for my modest contribution to a bit of international business. It involved bringing goods into the UK from the US, China and Korea. They will now be processed in the UK providing some blue collar jobs for some workers in a very brexity bit of Britain. They'll then be shipped across most of Europe to be sold to consumers. A 4% duty would kill the margin on the current cost structure. This was all set up before the vote and the entrepreneur who set it up has got a nice bonus thanks to the devaluation, so I think he'll be back for more soon.
Of course what it'll look like in a couple of years who knows. On the face of it, in the hard Brexit scenario the UK factory will be facing increased labour costs thanks to restrictions on cheap immigrant labour, increased import costs due to the low pound as well as a tariff. They might be able to increase their productivity to cope. There might be other economic consequences of Brexit that make up for losing this kind of business. I don't know, and I haven't seen any evidence that anybody else does either.
It seems to me that Brexit is a bit like pressing that button on your car dashboard whose function you have never discovered while doing top speed on the motorway. Sure - it might well be okay. But was it a good idea to press it?
The idea that 4% tarrifs each way would somehow cancel each other out is bonkers. It assumes #1 All these goods are price inelastic #2 production of them is immobile. And it's the second that's the killer. If producers are going to move to avoid tarrifs which of the two sized economies will they pick to relocate to ? The UK or rEU. That before we get into the fact the Single Market is about much , much more than tarrif free access. Reverting to WTO rules will be a big shock to the UK economy which would need a big countering move. What that move would be is where the real fun starts.
. So the 4 may find that if they are turning on migrants themselves the other EU nations may start to lose patience with their demands that full freedom of movement to western EU nations is maintained for their citizens
The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.
Merkel will not be happy with Germany being forced to accept more refugees because some Eastern EU nations refuse to have any, especially given the rise of the Afd.
All part of the infinitely complex game of 28-dimensional chess, which is liable to end with a compromise that gives everyone some of what they want, but leaves no-one really happy.
Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.
Exactly, the UK and France are the main EU military powers and protectors of Eastern Europe. As Trump would tell them to fend for themselves, they may just want to rely mainly on the French to protect them from Putin!
SKY news have just told us the UK can't defend itself from countries like Russia
Well we could nuke Moscow, as could France, which might cause Putin a few problems, the rest of the EU does not have that option open to them
Ilford recently had it's very own "Empire College London", obviously a play on Imperial College London
Spotting the ever-changing names of the colleges of Ilford, often above chip shops and the like, is one of the delights of visiting Redbridge. Others I've seen in East London include clones of Oxford and Cambridge, and many not-quite-direct-copies of the prestigious London Business School.
One sees adverts for them on billboards and round tube/train stations in the area, and the smaller colleges even advertise with handwritten A6-size small ads posted in the window displays of East Ham newsagents! The more obviously dodgy places make it very clear, in large print, the UK visa you'll be granted for attending and the number of hours you'll be legally entitled to work part-time due to your a migrant student status... and have scant, if any, details about the content of the course itself. Even the usual tripe about the "employability" of the vacuously generic skills one gets from most colleges goes AWOL at these places. There's also little focus on academic entry requirements, unless it's to advertise how low they are!
I thought there was a huge clampdown on this a few years ago, so that student visas are now only issued to registered institutions for degree-level courses? Have they found a loophole that needs closing?
Comments
Germany are not the only state who have their own stance on Brexit talks.
https://twitter.com/V4_PRES/status/776726692459151360
Still, it is always worth a recap, not least because it is not about bloody grammar schools....
It's just a shame he kept passing it off as fact.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11N0IA
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/777239888030826497
Obviously useful knowledge(!) But in practice a barrier to non-English speakers taking out citizenship.
It said the "Combined Air Operations Center had earlier informed Russian counterparts of the upcoming strike".
It added: "Syria is a complex situation with various military forces and militias in close proximity, but coalition forces would not intentionally strike a known Syrian military unit. The coalition will review this strike and the circumstances surrounding it to see if any lessons can be learned."
Russia's defence ministry earlier said that if the US air strikes did turn out to be an error, it would be because of Washington's stubborn refusal to co-ordinate military action with Moscow. Only if the current ceasefire - which began on Monday - holds for seven days, will the US and Russia begin co-ordinated action against the Jabhat Fateh al-Sham group, which was previously known as the al-Nusra Front, and IS. '
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-37398721
I suppose Skodas and Fiats but what else apart from decent lager?
(As Poland is the only one of the V4 with a port, HMY Britannia may have problems if bigger than a narrowboat!)
Bonkers. The level of GOTV targeting you could do with this data is unimaginable.
https://www.ncsbe.gov/absentee-data
'The visegrad 4 have announced that they would veto any Brexit agreement in they do not get freedom of movement for their citizens.
So they are in effect threatening us with a hard Brexit? Do they realise that they will be negotiating with David Davis?'
That's fine, hopefully they have sufficient job opportunities for the two million or so citizens that may have to return home ?
Freedom of movement can be a two way street.
Or did you mean Gaelic, one of four languages native to Scotland?
The medicine go dow-own
The medicine go down
Just a spoonful of Brexit helps the medicine go down
In a most delightful way"
(I thank you!)
As a beamer...
Indeed. I don't think we have much to fear from a hard Brexit. If (in extremis) we drop to WTO rules, then we add 4% tax to all importers, and all exporters have to pay an extra 4% on exports. So we take the tax from the importers and give it to the exporters, and we are even again.
It works because of the level of EU imports we have. If the EU decide to play hard ball, they are going to look stupid.
I think the bulk of the British public would prefer admission of foreigners to our citizenry to be based on values, and the test is a sop to that - means there's more to it than "time served in the UK". (There are many people who have been in the UK for decades and don't speak any English, don't watch British TV or read British newspapers, and have no real cultural connection to the UK whatsoever - often harmless elderly Asian ladies. But most people don't think it's good for us as a society, and I'm also pretty sure it's not good for them as people to be so cut off from the place they live in. Isn't going to make essential service delivery like health and social carer any easier or cheaper in the future, either.)
But the closest proxy we can achieve is "cultural literacy"... from which we can only draw on that small subset which is well-suited to the multiple choice question. In fact MCQs largely strip out the nuance and debate that should be at the heart of cultural literacy.
I'm not sure that renders them completely worthless, but if its main achievement is a string of Tuition Centres helping - at a price -the poor sods to memorize as many random useless factoids as possible, then some introspection wouldn't go amiss. Perhaps some improvements could be found.
(Given the precarious state of some of our Gaelic and Welsh speaking communities, I've often wondered if immigrants shouldn't get some kind of "bonus points" for passing a language test in one of the two. What would that achieve? Well above the takeaways and Polish delis of London, signs will soon announce the upstairs offices house the East London College of Computing and Gaelic, or the Ilford Institute of Welsh and Management...)
Does it also include whether they are a registered Democrat/Republican?
'The EU 27 will be quite happy for the V4 to do some of their dirty work in negotiating against the UK. Negotatiating against a group of 27 all with their own special interests will be drawn out and the outcomes unsatisfactory.'
If we end up with hard Brexit then all existing arrangements including employment rights for EU citizens currently working in the UK will be open for change.
After all, if the experts are correct and our economy shrinks, we won't need so many EU nationals in or workforce and priority will need to be given to UK nationals that will be unemployed due to hard Brexit.. .
Judging by the thinly veiled threats made across the Channel so far, we shouldn't bother negotiating at all. Declare Art 50 on 1st Jan and say that we will leave the EU on 1st Jan 2019, it will be a 'hard' exit and we will use the two years to talk to anyone in the world about trade - starting with Aus, NZ, CA, ZA and maybe even USA - rather than wasting our efforts on the EU who have clearly decided to punish us, in order to send a message to others.
Then we wait. Your move, Mr Drunker.
Though President Trump may not be so keen on free trade as we would like, and may force Hillary to tack to protectionism too for internal political reasons.
'Judging by the thinly veiled threats made across the Channel so far, we shouldn't bother negotiating at all. Declare Art 50 on 1st Jan and say that we will leave the EU on 1st Jan 2019, it will be a 'hard' exit and we will use the two years to talk to anyone in the world about trade - starting with Aus, NZ, CA, ZA and maybe even USA - rather than wasting our efforts on the EU who have clearly decided to punish us, in order to send a message to others. '
Agree,why waste the time go to WTO & start negotiations with non EU countries that want an agreement.
Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.
I'd rather a medical student read his books and listened to his tutors, rather than spending his effort trying to memorise the answers to the test!
'Besides anything else, V4 unity will be sorely tested because of Poland's antagonism towards Russia, with which it shares a border. Trying to beat the UK over the head may result in something of a sapping of political and popular appetite for mutual defence commitments towards those doing the beating.'
Might also focus minds in the Baltic's.
Calls the grammar messaging a mess, and echoes what I was saying last night, that May's biggest threat will be the Tory moderates, if she can't get a grown up and competent agenda together.
Apparently even Hammond is pushing back on May.
We'll get whatever FTA the EU 27 decide they want with us, not the one we want with them. And as CETA and TTIP show, much of Europe isn't that keen on free trade at the moment. That's the nature of sovereignty, they have a sovereign right to decide what deals they sign up to, as do we.
I think Trump might be amenable to a deal with Britain. He knows the place well, we speak the same language and have similar aims. We're not going to undercut their wages or ship huge numbers of jobs away from the US.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/britain-would-be-powerless-to-defend-itself-against-a-russian-attack-according-to-former-top-a3347341.html
To be honest, I think the Eastern Europeans are much more interested in the US military than ours.
'EU nationals (and indeed non-EU ones) with 5 years of residency are able to apply for citizenship, or just permanent residence. A high proportion cannot be threatened with deportation, and I suspect that a high proportion of the remainder are probably spouses and families of those with permanent residence.'
Of course those rules can be changed as everything will be 'off the table'
Rumainian & Bulgarian nationals have only been allowed freedom of movement for work since January 2015 and if the immigration numbers are to be believed we average over 1 million immigrants every 3 years of which at least half are EU nationals.
Economics of the madhouse.
One sees adverts for them on billboards and round tube/train stations in the area, and the smaller colleges even advertise with handwritten A6-size small ads posted in the window displays of East Ham newsagents! The more obviously dodgy places make it very clear, in large print, the UK visa you'll be granted for attending and the number of hours you'll be legally entitled to work part-time due to your a migrant student status... and have scant, if any, details about the content of the course itself. Even the usual tripe about the "employability" of the vacuously generic skills one gets from most colleges goes AWOL at these places. There's also little focus on academic entry requirements, unless it's to advertise how low they are!
As Barkworth explains.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/10/the-three-brexiteers-are-overlooking-a-crucial-detail-on-trade/
Is May on Marr tomorrow then? Presumably she should be out and about selling her grammar school policy.
Balls is on the sofas again, he must be on the prowl for a seat.
Of course what it'll look like in a couple of years who knows. On the face of it, in the hard Brexit scenario the UK factory will be facing increased labour costs thanks to restrictions on cheap immigrant labour, increased import costs due to the low pound as well as a tariff. They might be able to increase their productivity to cope. There might be other economic consequences of Brexit that make up for losing this kind of business. I don't know, and I haven't seen any evidence that anybody else does either.
It seems to me that Brexit is a bit like pressing that button on your car dashboard whose function you have never discovered while doing top speed on the motorway. Sure - it might well be okay. But was it a good idea to press it?