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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ex-LD leader, Paddy Ashdown launches move to have one non-CON candidate in Whitney
Intriguing move from the ex-leader of the LDS, Paddy Ashdown, this evening to have a unified non-CON candidate (presumably pro-REMAIN) to fight the Tories in the upcoming Whitney by-election. This is of course being held to fill the vacancy created by Cameron departure from the Commons.the
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First0
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Second!0
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Third like the LibDems0
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Mike, you are wrong about Lab and LDs NOT standing aside at a by-election since 1997!
How about David Davis in 2008? Haltemprice and Howden?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haltemprice_and_Howden_by-election,_20080 -
Ashdown has no track record of consulting the party before going off on manoeuvres.0
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Surely the people did have a say on Brexit? Does he not remember the referendum?0
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Typical - anything to take a dig at the tories / cozy up to the wretched EU0
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http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/09/poll-trump-passes-clinton-in-nevada-228155
Different polls showing Trump ahead in swing states.0 -
Ninth, like the Lib Dems...0
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Oh dear, Paddy still playing at Machiavelli – how did the 1997 coalition work out for you..?0
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And I've got important news for my average tracking poll.nunu said:http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/09/poll-trump-passes-clinton-in-nevada-228155
Different polls showing Trump ahead in swing states.
For the FIRST time Hillary and Trump are tied at 44.5 each.
This has never happened before on my average tracking poll.0 -
On topic.
Lord Ashdown, General of Crushing Defeats, has another master plan.
So the Tories will likely get a record majority then.0 -
Paddy Ashdown is, I think, making the same mistake which many people (especially, LibDems) make. People who voted Remain don't, for the most part, want to stop Brexit now: the decision has been taken, and that's it. Certainly amongst Conservatives (of whom there are lots in Witney!), I am sure that is the case.
As for a 'say on the deal', what the hell does that mean? What if the answer is 'No, we don't like the deal' and meanwhile the Article 50 clock is ticking? Brexit means Brexit, we're leaving, on whatever terms get negotiated. In any case, you can't negotiate by referendum.
Or, to put it more succinctly, Paddy is bonkers.0 -
Stupid idea.
The voters will punish an attempt to "game" the by-election.0 -
The Nevada one was conducted solely post Clinton's early retirement from the 9/11 memorial so may not be too bad for her.nunu said:http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/09/poll-trump-passes-clinton-in-nevada-228155
Different polls showing Trump ahead in swing states.0 -
Now I know why the LibDems are so low in the polls and rightly so.
They are quite simply just another protest group that fails to understand a democratic decision made by the people. Which is why not many people vote for them.0 -
FPT
Yes, under my proposal the person you mention would go to grammar school and just have two years of English basic A-Level, plus the sciences, maths and computing the dumping English, keeping maths, physics, computing and one other subject.Gardenwalker said:
I'd strongly support this, so long as there is a route for all to our best universities. If you're a genius at computing, but suck (comparatively) at English, you should still be able to advance from your computing-focused senior school to Cambridge.MaxPB said:
That system taken over four years makes a lot more sense to me than our current system of cramming for 11 GCSEs in two years then 4 A-Levels in two years with no real grounding in the A-Levels given the disparity between the difficulty of GCSEs and A-Levels.
Max for EdSec...
Justine Greening looked pretty grumpy on the front bench today. If she's not turning up to QT, perhaps there will be a vacancy shortly...0 -
From Politico the other day:
OVERHEARD: Soon after David Cameron announced he was vacating his seat of Witney in the U.K. parliament, a source overheard Nigel Farage “getting very angry on the phone in the smoking booth of the European Parliament’s members’ bar.” Farage sounded keen to run for Cameron’s old seat, but the person at the other end was less than pleased, the source reports.0 -
On topic, this is a stupid idea. The Lib Dems need to put the old fool out to pasture.0
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Mid-prices at Betfair:
Clinton 1.615
Trump 3.075
I'm not sure whether clips from Donald Trump's appearance on medic Mehmet Oz's show, to be aired tomorrow, have yet been released. Whatever the show reveals about Trump's health is likely in itself to be completely irrelevant. Hillary Clinton may or may not manage to attend an engagement or two tomorrow, but what's important is Trump's message: his health is OK and hers isn't; he can go on this kind of show and she can't or won't. So I expect these prices to change in Trump's favour today and tomorrow.0 -
Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.0
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I can't imagine Farage would have a cat in hell's chance as the Tories would blame him (justly or unjustly) for the resignation of Cameron.Gardenwalker said:From Politico the other day:
OVERHEARD: Soon after David Cameron announced he was vacating his seat of Witney in the U.K. parliament, a source overheard Nigel Farage “getting very angry on the phone in the smoking booth of the European Parliament’s members’ bar.” Farage sounded keen to run for Cameron’s old seat, but the person at the other end was less than pleased, the source reports.0 -
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
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But we will have saved the planet - and that can't be all bad.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
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For copyright fans, the Commission has just published a proposed Copyright in the Digital Single Market Directive. The slow way in which these things work means that the UK will probably have left the EU by the time this needs to be enacted into national laws, though if we are still part of the Single Market we will have to go ahead anyway
http://ec.europa.eu/transparency/regdoc/rep/1/2016/EN/1-2016-593-EN-F1-1.PDF0 -
This is nuts. There is no chance any of the constituency parties here - Labour, LibDem, Green - will agree to it. The people I have down as favourites for Labour and LibDem candidates have a lot of respect for each other but no appetite to stand down.
That said:
It isn't the case among the Labour or LibDem voters that I know here in Witney; I suspect you are right with some Conservatives but certainly not all of my acquaintance. Anecdotes are of course not data but in the absence of polling or any other Witney PBers that's all I have...Richard_Nabavi said:Paddy Ashdown is, I think, making the same mistake which many people (especially, LibDems) make. People who voted Remain don't, for the most part, want to stop Brexit now: the decision has been taken, and that's it. Certainly amongst Conservatives (of whom there are lots in Witney!), I am sure that is the case.
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Why might it be that nuclear power stations aren't built in city centres or somewhere else that's surrounded by lots of land on all sides? They're safe, they're clean as a whistle, they end dependency on Russian gas bosses, they're green, they're fluffy, they're friendly, they give free tours around the clock (except if you're carrying a Geiger counter), they save loads of public money (sure they do - and any that's not spent on reducing waiting times for operations will be given out in free fivers to all comers), and they're the future, right? There's been no pro-nuclear public relations spend of any kind. "Energy mix" is an unloaded term, and environmentalists are being public-spirited when they say stop the oiks breeding "put coal on the dole".weejonnie said:
But we will have saved the planet - and that can't be all bad.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
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Exactly. It's the classic fanatics' error of assuming that your obsession is just as important to everyone else as it is to yourself. I suspect that most of those who voted in the referendum - and especially those who ended up on the Remain side - made pragmatic choices based upon weighing the arguments, and then accepted the decision of the majority quietly and without fuss.Richard_Nabavi said:Paddy Ashdown is, I think, making the same mistake which many people (especially, LibDems) make. People who voted Remain don't, for the most part, want to stop Brexit now: the decision has been taken, and that's it. Certainly amongst Conservatives (of whom there are lots in Witney!), I am sure that is the case.
Imagining that the 48% will all be desperate to vote for a Remain Unity candidate is like expecting all of the voters who backed all of the losing parties in a General Election to turn up to a mass rally demanding another ballot. It's delusional and it's crackers.0 -
Witney was 53/47 Remain in the referendum.0
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I have now completed the survey that ties my average tracking poll to the swing states.
This is the position of each state in reference to my average tracking poll.
Hillary lead of 8: Missouri, Georgia, Arizona tied.
Hillary +7: Maine CD-2 tied.
Hillary +6: none
Hillary +5: Nebraska CD-2, Iowa tied.
Hillary +4: Nevada tied.
Hillary +3: Florida, N.Carolina tied.
Hillary +2: Ohio tied.
Hillary +1: none
Tie : none
Trump lead of 1: Wisconsin tied.
Trump +2: Michigan tied.
Trump +3: N.Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Maine tied.
Trump +4: N.Mexico tied.
Trump +5: None
Trump +6: Colorado, Virginia tied.
Trump +7: None
Trump +8: Oregon tied.
The winning post is Wisconsin for now.0 -
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Someone asked the following question late last night:
Old boundaries - Lab needs 13% lead for a majority
New boundaries - Lab needs 14% lead for a majority
Also:
New boundaries - Con needs 2% lead for a majority
New boundaries - Lab needs 6% lead for Con & Lab to be level on seats
May surely has to pull out every single thing she can to get this through.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/09/first-look-at-the-boundary-review.html/0 -
Unlikely, Tim Farron interview today 'He virtually ruled out ever going into a coalition with Mr Corbyn, saying: “Could I see myself doing it? I can’t.”
Mr Farron accused Labour’s leadership of being “more content with feeling good about themselves than doing good”, adding: “I think there is nothing grubby about winning elections.” '
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tim-farron-i-want-to-park-lib-dem-tanks-on-the-tories-lawn-a3344426.html0 -
Seems unlikely given that it's only meant to supply (if memory serves) about 8% if UK electricity demand.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
I take your point that it's an expensive form of generation, but I think May has probably called this one right. Nuclear provides reliable base load, whilst reducing our reliance on imported fuel and contributing towards decarbonisation, and it'll help keep the lights on. I also imagine that the Government doesn't want to piss off the Chinese, and doesn't wish to take a gamble on whether or not large scale, efficient storage capacity - allowing renewables to plug the supply gap - is developed before other forms of generation really begin to run down.0 -
But the polls don't support this view at all. The YouGov poll showed support for Leave and Remain almost unchanged from the Referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:Paddy Ashdown is, I think, making the same mistake which many people (especially, LibDems) make. People who voted Remain don't, for the most part, want to stop Brexit now: the decision has been taken, and that's it. Certainly amongst Conservatives (of whom there are lots in Witney!), I am sure that is the case.
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This really isn't the case, @rcs1000 will enlighten with the figures.Black_Rook said:
Seems unlikely given that it's only meant to supply (if memory serves) about 8% if UK electricity demand.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
I take your point that it's an expensive form of generation, but I think May has probably called this one right. Nuclear provides reliable base load, whilst reducing our reliance on imported fuel and contributing towards decarbonisation, and it'll help keep the lights on. I also imagine that the Government doesn't want to piss off the Chinese, and doesn't wish to take a gamble on whether or not large scale, efficient storage capacity - allowing renewables to plug the supply gap - is developed before other forms of generation really begin to run down.0 -
So just in one day the EU has confirmed it wants an army and this insane and unenforcable outside the EU link copyright ruling which will damage the digital sector within it.
Imagine today if Remain had won...0 -
Can't Pantsdown just leave the stage gracefully? He's been wrong about everything for at least 30 years now.0
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They require cooling water so need to be located next to large sources like rivers or the sea.Dromedary said:
Why might it be that nuclear power stations aren't built in city centres or somewhere else that's surrounded by lots of land on all sides? ".weejonnie said:
But we will have saved the planet - and that can't be all bad.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
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Same as Newham in east London - go figure....AndyJS said:Witney was 53/47 Remain in the referendum.
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Hillary +1.5 = Trump narrowly wins Ohio, but loses the electoral college.Dromedary said:
Sorry for being dense. Your latest average figures are Hillary 44.5%, Trump 43%; how to read a line such as "Trump +8: Oregon tied"?Speedy said:I have now completed the survey that ties my average tracking poll to the swing states.
This is the position of each state in reference to my average tracking poll.
Hillary lead of 8: Missouri, Georgia, Arizona tied.
Hillary +7: Maine CD-2 tied.
Hillary +6: none
Hillary +5: Nebraska CD-2, Iowa tied.
Hillary +4: Nevada tied.
Hillary +3: Florida, N.Carolina tied.
Hillary +2: Ohio tied.
Hillary +1: none
Tie : none
Trump lead of 1: Wisconsin tied.
Trump +2: Michigan tied.
Trump +3: N.Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Maine tied.
Trump +4: N.Mexico tied.
Trump +5: None
Trump +6: Colorado, Virginia tied.
Trump +7: None
Trump +8: Oregon tied.
The winning post is Wisconsin for now.
Simples.0 -
It is a shame because classic liberalism of the orange book variety has much more to offer than socialismMoses_ said:Now I know why the LibDems are so low in the polls and rightly so.
They are quite simply just another protest group that fails to understand a democratic decision made by the people. Which is why not many people vote for them.0 -
One small issue with this, surely? The leader of the Labour Party does not favour a second referendum and nor, so far as I know, does he favour a Parliamentary vote.0
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That's a different question. I voted Remain because of the economic risks of leaving in the absence of a coherent alternative plan, and I haven't changed my mind. But I accept the result and I certainly don't want to re-open it, let alone confuse the Brexit process even more than it is already confused by suggesting some kind of rethink. I'm sure many other people who voted Remain take the same view. Probably most. So you can't assume that 48% of voters would want want to re-open the question; at a guess, I'd hazard it's more like 10%.not_on_fire said:
But the polls don't support this view at all. The YouGov poll showed support for Leave and Remain almost unchanged from the Referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:Paddy Ashdown is, I think, making the same mistake which many people (especially, LibDems) make. People who voted Remain don't, for the most part, want to stop Brexit now: the decision has been taken, and that's it. Certainly amongst Conservatives (of whom there are lots in Witney!), I am sure that is the case.
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Also worth noting is that Paddy does not speak for the LDs!Rogueywon said:One small issue with this, surely? The leader of the Labour Party does not favour a second referendum and nor, so far as I know, does he favour a Parliamentary vote.
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EMs and white-middle classes were both in favour.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Same as Newham in east London - go figure....AndyJS said:Witney was 53/47 Remain in the referendum.
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Remember ‘March for Europe’ lead by the irrepressible Mr Izzard? – turnout for the event was a humiliating 2.5K in a city of 8 million and the whole of Wales could only muster 75.not_on_fire said:
But the polls don't support this view at all. The YouGov poll showed support for Leave and Remain almost unchanged from the Referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:Paddy Ashdown is, I think, making the same mistake which many people (especially, LibDems) make. People who voted Remain don't, for the most part, want to stop Brexit now: the decision has been taken, and that's it. Certainly amongst Conservatives (of whom there are lots in Witney!), I am sure that is the case.
That’s reality…0 -
Paddy wants to overturn the referendum using the votes of at best a few tens of thousand of people?
What a gigantic BERK he is.0 -
He did a great job for the Conservatives at GE2015 when he ran the LD campaign and ran the LD MPs into the ground. Pantsdown is just trying to finish the LDs off.Sandpit said:Can't Pantsdown just leave the stage gracefully? He's been wrong about everything for at least 30 years now.
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Hahaha.
Is Paddy Ashdown seeking the title Remoaner in Chief?0 -
It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.0
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Everyone: Corbynites, Cameroons, and Remoaners.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
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Is there any reason to suppose that the Conservatives will put forward a Leaver in Witney? If they put forward an erstwhile Remainer the whole idea would look even less thought through than it looks at present.0
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This is interesting:
Americans last year reaped the largest economic gains in nearly a generation as poverty fell, health insurance coverage spread and incomes rose sharply for households on every rung of the economic ladder, ending years of stagnation.
The median household’s income in 2015 was $56,500, up 5.2 percent from the previous year — the largest single-year increase since record-keeping began in 1967, the Census Bureau said on Tuesday. The share of Americans living in poverty also posted the sharpest decline in decades.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/business/economy/us-census-household-income-poverty-wealth-2015.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0
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I've tried running some crude numbers through Electoral Calculus and that suggests that Labour "only" needs something like a 12% lead for a majority - but regardless of the model the numbers do look to be very forbidding for them. Basically, they're reliant on Jeremy Corbyn being able to generate absolute vote shares in excess of 40% and the Tories doing appallingly just to get to a majority of one (and this is one of those occasions when I remind those not already aware that the Conservatives have polled at least 30% of the vote at every single GE since 1835.) Indeed, if you give both parties 36% each then the Tories are only just shy of a majority and Labour are 70 seats behind them. It's an astonishing reversal of Labour's previous systemic advantages.MikeL said:Someone asked the following question late last night:
Old boundaries - Lab needs 13% lead for a majority
New boundaries - Lab needs 14% lead for a majority
Also:
New boundaries - Con needs 2% lead for a majority
New boundaries - Lab needs 6% lead for Con & Lab to be level on seats
May surely has to pull out every single thing she can to get this through.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/09/first-look-at-the-boundary-review.html/
It's no wonder that the Tories are so assiduously pursuing a "no MP left behind" policy to shuffle all the retirements and ennoblements about, and try to make sure that threatened MPs are moved into safe seats. The advantages of getting the new boundaries through are clearly enormous for them.0 -
Heh. Today I was accused of speaking for David Cameron when I criticised Mrs May.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
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How long till everyone wants Cameron back?AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
But seriously, I think things will settle down.
First - everyone thought May would be boring and continuity Cameron
Then - everyone thinks she has lots of new ideas and will make radical changes
Next - (I suspect) it'll end up halfway between the two0 -
Surely this is just an excuse to avoid another humiliating lost deposit?0
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FFS - a child wandered into the road outside its house and was tragically run over by its grandfather who wasquestioned on suspicion of causing death by careless driving then bailed.
Both parents have been remanded in custody on suspicion of child neglect.
Their kid has just been killed in an accident and they are remanded in custody ffs?
Our so called public services seem to have become ever more vengeful and vindictive.
http://dailym.ai/2cHBDGW0 -
On topic, this strategy displays all the brilliance and humility of Crassus at Carrhae0
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Not me. I've got my party back.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
And I've looked at the numbers and worked out that in the current climate, annoying metropolitan middle class liberals is not going to harm her electoral prospects either...0 -
*giggling like a child*Philip_Thompson said:Surely this is just an excuse to avoid another humiliating lost deposit?
LibDem voting %-ages during the 2010-15 parliament:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5507160282932510730 -
Post of the dayglw said:
Everyone: Corbynites, Cameroons, and Remoaners.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
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I suspect a lot of the trouble with the grammars is that the policy leaked before the Government had all its ducks lined up in a row. What's happened at PMQs today is exactly the sort of thing that May is striving to avoid over Brexit by being very slow and deliberate.MikeL said:
How long till everyone wants Cameron back?AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
But seriously, I think things will settle down.
First - everyone thought May would be boring and continuity Cameron
Then - everyone thinks she has lots of new ideas and will make radical changes
Next - (I suspect) it'll end up halfway between the two0 -
Agent Ashdown as well as Agent Corbyn? They are doing very well for us Tories right now!TCPoliticalBetting said:
He did a great job for the Conservatives at GE2015 when he ran the LD campaign and ran the LD MPs into the ground. Pantsdown is just trying to finish the LDs off.Sandpit said:Can't Pantsdown just leave the stage gracefully? He's been wrong about everything for at least 30 years now.
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With any luck we will see a repeat of the Rochester and Strood by-election where the Lib Dems got an impressive 300 votes.Philip_Thompson said:Surely this is just an excuse to avoid another humiliating lost deposit?
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You sound like a Corbynite talking about Blair.Mortimer said:
Not me. I've got my party back.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
And I've looked at the numbers and worked out that in the current climate, annoying metropolitan middle class liberals is not going to harm her electoral prospects either...0 -
Good grief. Just come into London after a day's book buying in the Cotswolds, en route to York. Wow is it humid at KC!0
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We're not dependent on Russian gas. We have some domestic production, we have long-term supply contracts with Statoil in Norway, and we have LNG import facilities, as well as access to the EU gas market.Dromedary said:
Why might it be that nuclear power stations aren't built in city centres or somewhere else that's surrounded by lots of land on all sides? They're safe, they're clean as a whistle, they end dependency on Russian gas bosses, they're green, they're fluffy, they're friendly, they give free tours around the clock (except if you're carrying a Geiger counter), they save loads of public money (sure they do - and any that's not spent on reducing waiting times for operations will be given out in free fivers to all comers), and they're the future, right? There's been no pro-nuclear public relations spend of any kind. "Energy mix" is an unloaded term, and environmentalists are being public-spirited when they say stop the oiks breeding "put coal on the dole".weejonnie said:
But we will have saved the planet - and that can't be all bad.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
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I'm no fan of May, but it's pretty clear some are trying to creative a narrative that's not borne out as yet.Mortimer said:Not me. I've got my party back.
And I've looked at the numbers and worked out that in the current climate, annoying metropolitan middle class liberals is not going to harm her electoral prospects either...
We won't really have much of an idea about May until next month at conference, when I assume we will get some idea about what she actually intends to do. She might surprise us.
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Its exactly a parallel of labour.TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like a Corbynite talking about Blair.
The difference being that the Tories Corbyn has the support of 40 odd% of the electorate rather than Corbyn who only has Dave and Dierdrie Spart and a bunch of inner London Guardian Readers and sundry misfits behind him.0 -
The tribes which make up British voters, 26% are 'Common Sense', 24% 'Our Britain', 11% Progressives, 8% 'Community', 7% 'Free Liberals', 7% Swing voters, 6% 'New Britain' and 5% 'Democratic Socialists'
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2016/09/emran-mian-so-much-for-the-progressive-majority-most-british-voters-sit-broadly-on-the-right.html0 -
Grammar Schools and Leaving in the same year? I couldn't ask for much more (at least not that can be legislated for!)TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like a Corbynite talking about Blair.Mortimer said:
Not me. I've got my party back.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
And I've looked at the numbers and worked out that in the current climate, annoying metropolitan middle class liberals is not going to harm her electoral prospects either...0 -
Exactly. The fact that so many people would vote Remain and so many others would vote Leave does not mean that these choices are the most important issues in all of their lives. Something like 99.9998% of all those voters who backed Remain did not attend one of those rallies, and I dare say that almost as great a proportion of Remain voters wouldn't turn out to attend a pro-EU rally if one were being held at the bottom of the street.SimonStClare said:
Remember ‘March for Europe’ lead by the irrepressible Mr Izzard? – turnout for the event was a humiliating 2.5K in a city of 8 million and the whole of Wales could only muster 75.not_on_fire said:
But the polls don't support this view at all. The YouGov poll showed support for Leave and Remain almost unchanged from the Referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:Paddy Ashdown is, I think, making the same mistake which many people (especially, LibDems) make. People who voted Remain don't, for the most part, want to stop Brexit now: the decision has been taken, and that's it. Certainly amongst Conservatives (of whom there are lots in Witney!), I am sure that is the case.
That’s reality…0 -
#Meeks4Witney?AlastairMeeks said:Is there any reason to suppose that the Conservatives will put forward a Leaver in Witney? If they put forward an erstwhile Remainer the whole idea would look even less thought through than it looks at present.
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There are 0 LibDem councillors on Medway Council. There are 4 on West Oxfordshire DC. So, no.MP_SE said:
With any luck we will see a repeat of the Rochester and Strood by-election where the Lib Dems got an impressive 300 votes.Philip_Thompson said:Surely this is just an excuse to avoid another humiliating lost deposit?
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I don't think Witney is ready for me or vice versa. I've never sat on the back of a horse.williamglenn said:
#Meeks4Witney?AlastairMeeks said:Is there any reason to suppose that the Conservatives will put forward a Leaver in Witney? If they put forward an erstwhile Remainer the whole idea would look even less thought through than it looks at present.
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The issue is that:Black_Rook said:
Seems unlikely given that it's only meant to supply (if memory serves) about 8% if UK electricity demand.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
I take your point that it's an expensive form of generation, but I think May has probably called this one right. Nuclear provides reliable base load, whilst reducing our reliance on imported fuel and contributing towards decarbonisation, and it'll help keep the lights on. I also imagine that the Government doesn't want to piss off the Chinese, and doesn't wish to take a gamble on whether or not large scale, efficient storage capacity - allowing renewables to plug the supply gap - is developed before other forms of generation really begin to run down.
1. Nuclear does not supply reliable anything. It is highly unlikely that HPC will have availability of more than 80%, as all nuclear power plants have substantial periods of scheduled and (worse) unscheduled maintenance.
2. Nuclear is extremely inflexible. As more and more intermittent power is added to the grid (and more will be added every year as it gets cheaper and cheaper), it starts to cut into baseload demand. We need power that can be spun up very quickly.
3. This is extremely expensive electricity. It will cost us approximately twice what it would cost if we built CCGTs.
When HPC was planned, it was on the assumption that natural gas was running out worldwide, and we therefore needed an alternative. Since that point, we have had the shale gas revolution in the US and Canada, and absolutely massive discoveries of natural gas offshore Mozambique and Australia. Long term, it's entirely possible we will begin to exploit the UK's own natural gas shale reserves. Gas is cheap. Gas is clean. Gas is massively abundant. And gas fits very well with intermittent electricity from solar or wind.0 -
Isn't there also importation of US LNG on the cards as well?rcs1000 said:
We're not dependent on Russian gas. We have some domestic production, we have long-term supply contracts with Statoil in Norway, and we have LNG import facilities, as well as access to the EU gas market.Dromedary said:
Why might it be that nuclear power stations aren't built in city centres or somewhere else that's surrounded by lots of land on all sides? They're safe, they're clean as a whistle, they end dependency on Russian gas bosses, they're green, they're fluffy, they're friendly, they give free tours around the clock (except if you're carrying a Geiger counter), they save loads of public money (sure they do - and any that's not spent on reducing waiting times for operations will be given out in free fivers to all comers), and they're the future, right? There's been no pro-nuclear public relations spend of any kind. "Energy mix" is an unloaded term, and environmentalists are being public-spirited when they say stop the oiks breeding "put coal on the dole".weejonnie said:
But we will have saved the planet - and that can't be all bad.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
0 -
Cars have made it to the Cotswolds, you know...AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think Witney is ready for me or vice versa. I've never sat on the back of a horse.williamglenn said:
#Meeks4Witney?AlastairMeeks said:Is there any reason to suppose that the Conservatives will put forward a Leaver in Witney? If they put forward an erstwhile Remainer the whole idea would look even less thought through than it looks at present.
0 -
Thanks Jonathan, you beat me to it.JonathanD said:
They require cooling water so need to be located next to large sources like rivers or the sea.Dromedary said:
Why might it be that nuclear power stations aren't built in city centres or somewhere else that's surrounded by lots of land on all sides? ".weejonnie said:
But we will have saved the planet - and that can't be all bad.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
0 -
I think that we should not just consider May's schools policy, but also how she has managed it.TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like a Corbynite talking about Blair.Mortimer said:
Not me. I've got my party back.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
And I've looked at the numbers and worked out that in the current climate, annoying metropolitan middle class liberals is not going to harm her electoral prospects either...
It doesn't seem to have been properly thrashed out in cabinet, indeed it seems as if her own minister is half hearted at best. As a result of this lack of scrutiny the policy is halfbaked. The policy leaked, possibly deliberately. She fell apart defending it at the first opportunity.
Whatever the merits of the policy (rapidly becoming AV mark 2) It is demonstrated that Theresa is crap is prime minister. God help us all!0 -
Yes, and Canadian too.MaxPB said:
Isn't there also importation of US LNG on the cards as well?rcs1000 said:
We're not dependent on Russian gas. We have some domestic production, we have long-term supply contracts with Statoil in Norway, and we have LNG import facilities, as well as access to the EU gas market.Dromedary said:
Why might it be that nuclear power stations aren't built in city centres or somewhere else that's surrounded by lots of land on all sides? They're safe, they're clean as a whistle, they end dependency on Russian gas bosses, they're green, they're fluffy, they're friendly, they give free tours around the clock (except if you're carrying a Geiger counter), they save loads of public money (sure they do - and any that's not spent on reducing waiting times for operations will be given out in free fivers to all comers), and they're the future, right? There's been no pro-nuclear public relations spend of any kind. "Energy mix" is an unloaded term, and environmentalists are being public-spirited when they say stop the oiks breeding "put coal on the dole".weejonnie said:
But we will have saved the planet - and that can't be all bad.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
0 -
It is more to do with the time David Cameron went horse riding with Rebekah Brooks in Chipping Norton.Mortimer said:
Cars have made it to the Cotswolds, you know...AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think Witney is ready for me or vice versa. I've never sat on the back of a horse.williamglenn said:
#Meeks4Witney?AlastairMeeks said:Is there any reason to suppose that the Conservatives will put forward a Leaver in Witney? If they put forward an erstwhile Remainer the whole idea would look even less thought through than it looks at present.
One or two PBers were convinced that Dave would have to resign because of it.0 -
tim, probably?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is more to do with the time David Cameron went horse riding with Rebekah Brooks in Chipping Norton.Mortimer said:
Cars have made it to the Cotswolds, you know...AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think Witney is ready for me or vice versa. I've never sat on the back of a horse.williamglenn said:
#Meeks4Witney?AlastairMeeks said:Is there any reason to suppose that the Conservatives will put forward a Leaver in Witney? If they put forward an erstwhile Remainer the whole idea would look even less thought through than it looks at present.
One or two PBers were convinced that Dave would have to resign because of it.0 -
Mortimer, you and I both support grammar schools and both attended one, do you not feel that these half baked plans will end up doing more harm than good? In the abstract I'd love to see more grammar schools and an education system which strives for excellence of all kinds including academic, but these proposals do nothing for the 65% of kids who won't be able to attend grammar school. In fact it may be counterproductive as kids who don't make it are left with fewer life chances and opportunities for success. I'm very disappointed that there aren't wider reforms.Mortimer said:
Grammar Schools and Leaving in the same year? I couldn't ask for much more (at least not that can be legislated for!)TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like a Corbynite talking about Blair.Mortimer said:
Not me. I've got my party back.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
And I've looked at the numbers and worked out that in the current climate, annoying metropolitan middle class liberals is not going to harm her electoral prospects either...0 -
I've already written the outline of Sunday's thread on Theresa May being crap.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that we should not just consider May's schools policy, but also how she has managed it.TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like a Corbynite talking about Blair.Mortimer said:
Not me. I've got my party back.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
And I've looked at the numbers and worked out that in the current climate, annoying metropolitan middle class liberals is not going to harm her electoral prospects either...
It doesn't seem to have been properly thrashed out in cabinet, indeed it seems as if her own minister is half hearted at best. As a result of this lack of scrutiny the policy is halfbaked. The policy leaked, possibly deliberately. She fell apart defending it at the first opportunity.
Whatever the merits of the policy (rapidly becoming AV mark 2) It is demonstrated that Theresa is crap is prime minister. God help us all!0 -
The same people who thought Osborne would have to resign because he cried at a funeral!TheScreamingEagles said:
It is more to do with the time David Cameron went horse riding with Rebekah Brooks in Chipping Norton.Mortimer said:
Cars have made it to the Cotswolds, you know...AlastairMeeks said:
I don't think Witney is ready for me or vice versa. I've never sat on the back of a horse.williamglenn said:
#Meeks4Witney?AlastairMeeks said:Is there any reason to suppose that the Conservatives will put forward a Leaver in Witney? If they put forward an erstwhile Remainer the whole idea would look even less thought through than it looks at present.
One or two PBers were convinced that Dave would have to resign because of it.
0 -
I seem to remember Liverpool being key to this plan.rcs1000 said:
Yes, and Canadian too.MaxPB said:
Isn't there also importation of US LNG on the cards as well?rcs1000 said:
We're not dependent on Russian gas. We have some domestic production, we have long-term supply contracts with Statoil in Norway, and we have LNG import facilities, as well as access to the EU gas market.Dromedary said:
Why might it be that nuclear power stations aren't built in city centres or somewhere else that's surrounded by lots of land on all sides? They're safe, they're clean as a whistle, they end dependency on Russian gas bosses, they're green, they're fluffy, they're friendly, they give free tours around the clock (except if you're carrying a Geiger counter), they save loads of public money (sure they do - and any that's not spent on reducing waiting times for operations will be given out in free fivers to all comers), and they're the future, right? There's been no pro-nuclear public relations spend of any kind. "Energy mix" is an unloaded term, and environmentalists are being public-spirited when they say stop the oiks breeding "put coal on the dole".weejonnie said:
But we will have saved the planet - and that can't be all bad.Speedy said:
If that is true then electricity prices will go through the roof.Black_Rook said:Just watching ITV News at the mo, they are reporting that May will give Hinkley Point C the go ahead shortly.
0 -
What is bad for the Dems in that poll is that the GOP candidate is leading in the race to replace Harry Reid. If the GOP take that, it makes it that much harder for the Dems to retake the Senate.weejonnie said:
The Nevada one was conducted solely post Clinton's early retirement from the 9/11 memorial so may not be too bad for her.nunu said:http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/09/poll-trump-passes-clinton-in-nevada-228155
Different polls showing Trump ahead in swing states.0 -
I could sort that one out for youAlastairMeeks said:
I don't think Witney is ready for me or vice versa. I've never sat on the back of a horse.williamglenn said:
#Meeks4Witney?AlastairMeeks said:Is there any reason to suppose that the Conservatives will put forward a Leaver in Witney? If they put forward an erstwhile Remainer the whole idea would look even less thought through than it looks at present.
0 -
The NHS reforms reminded me that reforms don't happen of work if they're too radical. Step by step, Max old son.MaxPB said:
Mortimer, you and I both support grammar schools and both attended one, do you not feel that these half baked plans will end up doing more harm than good? In the abstract I'd love to see more grammar schools and an education system which strives for excellence of all kinds including academic, but these proposals do nothing for the 35% of kids who won't be able to attend grammar school. In fact it may be counterproductive as kids who don't make it are left with fewer life chances and opportunities for success. I'm very disappointed that there aren't wider reforms.Mortimer said:
Grammar Schools and Leaving in the same year? I couldn't ask for much more (at least not that can be legislated for!)TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like a Corbynite talking about Blair.Mortimer said:
Not me. I've got my party back.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
And I've looked at the numbers and worked out that in the current climate, annoying metropolitan middle class liberals is not going to harm her electoral prospects either...
My view is that grammars are a brand. They're about aspiration. They're about people like you and me taken out of what might have been a hum drum existence into opportunity and doing something we enjoy that is also lucrative. It is about encouraging achievement, discipline and a sense of pride in our next generations.0 -
A "March for Brexit" would have gained similar pitiful numbers. Most people can't be bothered to attend such events because they, rightly, conclude they change nothing.SimonStClare said:
Remember ‘March for Europe’ lead by the irrepressible Mr Izzard? – turnout for the event was a humiliating 2.5K in a city of 8 million and the whole of Wales could only muster 75.not_on_fire said:
But the polls don't support this view at all. The YouGov poll showed support for Leave and Remain almost unchanged from the Referendum.Richard_Nabavi said:Paddy Ashdown is, I think, making the same mistake which many people (especially, LibDems) make. People who voted Remain don't, for the most part, want to stop Brexit now: the decision has been taken, and that's it. Certainly amongst Conservatives (of whom there are lots in Witney!), I am sure that is the case.
That’s reality…0 -
Absolutely. People underestimate how important this is to the Conservative party. There will be massive effort of carrots and sticks from the whips over the next two years, to make sure this goes off without a hitch.Black_Rook said:
I've tried running some crude numbers through Electoral Calculus and that suggests that Labour "only" needs something like a 12% lead for a majority - but regardless of the model the numbers do look to be very forbidding for them. Basically, they're reliant on Jeremy Corbyn being able to generate absolute vote shares in excess of 40% and the Tories doing appallingly just to get to a majority of one (and this is one of those occasions when I remind those not already aware that the Conservatives have polled at least 30% of the vote at every single GE since 1835.) Indeed, if you give both parties 36% each then the Tories are only just shy of a majority and Labour are 70 seats behind them. It's an astonishing reversal of Labour's previous systemic advantages.MikeL said:Someone asked the following question late last night:
Old boundaries - Lab needs 13% lead for a majority
New boundaries - Lab needs 14% lead for a majority
Also:
New boundaries - Con needs 2% lead for a majority
New boundaries - Lab needs 6% lead for Con & Lab to be level on seats
May surely has to pull out every single thing she can to get this through.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/09/first-look-at-the-boundary-review.html/
It's no wonder that the Tories are so assiduously pursuing a "no MP left behind" policy to shuffle all the retirements and ennoblements about, and try to make sure that threatened MPs are moved into safe seats. The advantages of getting the new boundaries through are clearly enormous for them.
Anyone who is being awkward now will end up with a knighthood, a seat in the Lords or a job as Ambassador to Singapore or the Seychelles.0 -
Exclusive in this week's Sunil on Sunday!TheScreamingEagles said:
I've already written the outline of Sunday's thread on Theresa May being crap.foxinsoxuk said:
I think that we should not just consider May's schools policy, but also how she has managed it.TheScreamingEagles said:
You sound like a Corbynite talking about Blair.Mortimer said:
Not me. I've got my party back.AlastairMeeks said:It seems today that everyone has decided that Theresa May is a ditherer and not a tactician. Yet when I suggested that on Sunday there was a lot of harrumphing. How swiftly opinions change.
And I've looked at the numbers and worked out that in the current climate, annoying metropolitan middle class liberals is not going to harm her electoral prospects either...
It doesn't seem to have been properly thrashed out in cabinet, indeed it seems as if her own minister is half hearted at best. As a result of this lack of scrutiny the policy is halfbaked. The policy leaked, possibly deliberately. She fell apart defending it at the first opportunity.
Whatever the merits of the policy (rapidly becoming AV mark 2) It is demonstrated that Theresa is crap is prime minister. God help us all!
"TSE - closet LibDem?"0 -
Yeah but wages are down 2.9% compared to 1999 in real terms. But it's OK at least Apple has a less then 1% tax rate.Richard_Nabavi said:This is interesting:
Americans last year reaped the largest economic gains in nearly a generation as poverty fell, health insurance coverage spread and incomes rose sharply for households on every rung of the economic ladder, ending years of stagnation.
The median household’s income in 2015 was $56,500, up 5.2 percent from the previous year — the largest single-year increase since record-keeping began in 1967, the Census Bureau said on Tuesday. The share of Americans living in poverty also posted the sharpest decline in decades.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/business/economy/us-census-household-income-poverty-wealth-2015.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=00
