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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Round up of 65+ polling on the man 56% of his backers think

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    John_M said:

    We talked a lot about the impact of Brexit on future GDP. My back of a fag packet estimate is that we lost around 9-10% of trend growth due to the crash. Our economy would have been north of £2 trillion p.a. all other things being equal (yes, I know bogus, but whatever).
    Sounds reasonable.

    Can't exactly excuse Govt from the crash can we - given that the part of the causes of the crash must be attr failure of Govt. regulation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited September 2016
    Fergie Time winner....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    My OH has a theory - if I say something isn't going to happen during a sports match in which I'm emotionally involved, it variably does.

    So I might claim a little of that goal - I said on c.82 minutes that we might as well not select Lallana as 'he'll never score'.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Mortimer said:

    He did the best he could given the circumstances, heavier cuts would have led to civil unrest. Brown is to blame for the deficit and PFI. Its all on his shoulders. Labour spent every last penny possible in the final months so that there really was "no money left"
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    Civil unrest? Do me a flavour.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mortimer said:

    Civil unrest? Do me a flavour.

    I think the late goal avoided that .... just ....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    Left it late but a win I suppose is a win for England
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    This assumes equal %gs turn out and vote. That is not usually the case.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    Alistair said:

    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    if brexit had farage in charge saying he would deport all the darkies if they won (like trump is dio
    Alistair said:

    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    that 3% is within the margin of error, so could be less. could just be ben carson and pastor brown
  • A bit more than that today.
    I should criticise players more often...!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Quite a few of my Asian and British-Filipino colleagues did. Some because they didn't want Muslims coming (!?!), and one Philipino Nurse turned British National specifically because she wanted the Spanish and Portuguese Nurses to jump through the same hoops as she had to.

    I cited these in my anecdata reports before Brexit. I think the Muslims and Afro-Carribean staff broke more for Remain, as more often the butt of xenophobia themselves.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337

    Quite a few of my Asian and British-Filipino colleagues did. Some because they didn't want Muslims coming (!?!), and one Philipino Nurse turned British National specifically because she wanted the Spanish and Portuguese Nurses to jump through the same hoops as she had to.

    I cited these in my anecdata reports before Brexit. I think the Muslims and Afro-Carribean staff broke more for Remain, as more often the butt of xenophobia themselves.
    Probably. I know one a muslim couple in their late 70s, came over in the late 60s, who voted Leave due to the influx of Eastern Europeans, it takes all sorts.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JackW said:

    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
  • weejonnie said:

    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    "You have nothing to lose" it worked for Leave.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited September 2016
    weejonnie said:

    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    We need a new version of Godwin's law for use of the term "MSM/Mainstream Media". It's the sign of a paranoid inability to face facts.
  • MaxPB said:

    "You have nothing to lose" it worked for Leave.
    I mean he could double Romney's share and still get 10%...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited September 2016
    John_M said:


    However, iirc, by the end of this parliament debt servicing will be our #4 budget line.

    Closing the deficit and attacking Labour's 'magic money tree' the most important thing of important things for Tories on here for about 6 years until the Referendum. Then suddenly we were told the economic damage from Brexit was worth it because "there are more important things than money"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    I mean he could double Romney's share and still get 10%...
    He doesn't need much more than that. It isn't about winning a majority of minorities, it's about winning enough and for Trump, enough is quite a low figure.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,120

    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    When was the last time a majority of African Americans voted Republican? I'm guessing it was 1928.

    That being said, I expect Trump to have the lowest number of African American votes of any mainstream presidential candidate since the abolition of slavery, never mind the securing of the universal franchise in the 1960s.
  • So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    There is something that might resonate with the thought that voting Democrat for generations has not substantially changed things. There might just be some traction in that for a small number - but it is hard to know
  • NEW THREAD

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    weejonnie said:

    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.

    I care not if the observers are left-wing, ring-wing or centre-forward observers. Credibility is the key.

    Throughout both 08 and 12 McCain and Romney advocates determined that they would pull in 10-20% of the black vote. It was 5%. Now despite all the reliable evidence to the contrary we even have some PBers who think black voters will rally to the Donald in greater numbers than in the past two elections.

    Trump will do very well to edge toward 3% of the AA vote. A higher level toward 5% would be a triumph for him over the plague, that would certainty merit applause even as he loses the election.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    Can't believe some people on here are seriously comparing Brexit to Trump. Ah well I just hope they don't bet on that basis.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    There is something that might resonate with the thought that voting Democrat for generations has not substantially changed things. There might just be some traction in that for a small number - but it is hard to know
    it may have worked if Trump hasn't publically been a massive bigot for the last 3 years
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