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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Round up of 65+ polling on the man 56% of his backers think

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  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.
  • Options
    Miss Plato, Sir Edric would beg to differ. I'm not sure his biographer would necessarily be the sort of person to co-found the Ovarian Alliance.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited September 2016
    England: Hart; Walker, Cahill, Smalling, Rose; Dier, Henderson; Lallana, Rooney, Sterling; Kane

    Sigh....Uncle Roy XI.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Speedy said:

    The media have found their scandal expert:

    https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/772423358600404993

    LOL - shameless
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    The Ed Balls effect

    Strictly Come Dancing's series launch got an average of 9.3 million viewers on Saturday night - a record audience for an opening episode of the show.

    The audience peaked at 10.1 million as the BBC One show's 14th series began, with celebrities and professional dancers meeting for the first time.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-37270968
    Didn't watch, Did he get the new Russian Blonde? :open_mouth:
    He got a part Russian, but she's not blonde.
  • Options
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    I confess to thinking the Janner stuff was a bit after-the-fact and overblown re Vaz/Elm House home.

    Now - it looks awfully dubious.
    Go and have a look at Janner's close associates....
    Jim the washing machine salesman will fix it - for you, and you and you!
    Just out of interest did any journalistic hack(er) find out the surname of this Jim character?
    Jim Hacker? :wink:
    I'm no expert but expect hookers, escorts and drug delivery guys don't tend to ask second names.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    The Ed Balls effect

    Strictly Come Dancing's series launch got an average of 9.3 million viewers on Saturday night - a record audience for an opening episode of the show.

    The audience peaked at 10.1 million as the BBC One show's 14th series began, with celebrities and professional dancers meeting for the first time.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-37270968
    Didn't watch, Did he get the new Russian Blonde? :open_mouth:
    He got a Russian, but I don't think she was blonde. Yvette was watching closely from the front row.
    I bet she was... Ed wouldn't risk his great "comeback" on a showmance with a Russian half his age though would he?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054
    nunu said:

    Mortimer said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-ground-game-insiders-224998

    I would like to hear from LEAVE canvassers across the U.K and compare it to Trump's. Was it better, worse?

    Amazing how those with a weak campaign strategy and unpopular candidate pin hopes on an excellent ground game. Remember IOS?
    No. what did he say?
    Hyped up the Labour ground game as blowing the Tories, and so thought Labour would easily win, and was quite mocking of those who thought otherwise (I thought Labour would win most seats too and mocked the idea they wouldn't, but from a less partisan perspective)
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    The Ed Balls effect

    Strictly Come Dancing's series launch got an average of 9.3 million viewers on Saturday night - a record audience for an opening episode of the show.

    The audience peaked at 10.1 million as the BBC One show's 14th series began, with celebrities and professional dancers meeting for the first time.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-37270968
    Didn't watch, Did he get the new Russian Blonde? :open_mouth:
    He got a part Russian, but she's not blonde.
    :smiley:
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Speedy said:

    For those paying attention the US Presidential election starts this Friday, with postal voting in N.Carolina :
    http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/election-calendar

    as of Aug 30th the trump camp have 0 campaign offices, Clinton has 30 in North Carolina.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited September 2016

    GIN1138 said:



    The Vaz story is going to run and run...normally it would be damaging for Labour - but in current circumstances it's nowt but a flesh wound...

    I doubt the Vaz story would do much damage to Labour even in normal circusmtances.

    He's just a very strange person. Always has been... Just one of those really "odd" characters that you find in politics in all parties. I would suspect it's kind of factored in with him that pretty much anything could come out about him at any time.
    His constituents will still vote him back in with a big mandate to boot.
    I am sure that Vaz has a large mandate. Fnar fnarr!

    He has worked his constituency well over the years, so should be safe. His local party is not one that Momentum would takeover easily.

    The constituency covers the most Asian part of Leicester including the Golden Mile on Belgrave rd, which is mostly Hindu, as well as the more Muslim Highfields and Evington. It would be difficult to take off Labour, possibly the only way would be to parachute in someone who the local party did not want.

    I think Vaz will stick it out though.
  • Options
    philiph said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    Is he really acceptable to the selectorate?

    How did he vote on Iraq?
    Is he left enough?
    Is he tainted by Brownism and Blairism, and therefore a Tory?
    Ed Balls: 240/1 to win Strictly; 50/1 to be next Lab leader (after Corbyn).

    Take your pick.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    philiph said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    Is he really acceptable to the selectorate?

    How did he vote on Iraq?
    Is he left enough?
    Is he tainted by Brownism and Blairism, and therefore a Tory?
    Leicester East is 58% asian, quite the difference from the 94% british of Morley.
    It would be quite a challenge to parachute Ed Balls in that seat instead of an asian candidate.

    Vaz, although disgraced, should still have enough local influence to determine his successor, he would probably prefer someone from his own community.

    If Ed Balls tries to make a move it would probably lead to open warfare in Leicester, Vaz would think that Balls was behind this scandal.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, I'm intrigued to see how Honda do next year.

    Yes, so am I. They seem to be getting their ducks in a row quite well, I'm hoping that all the engine manufacturers can be competitive with Mercedes and we'll get back to driver vs driver action rather than just engine power and tyre strategy deciding the races.
    Indeed. It's said that Honda have made a major change to their engine which puts it up with the Ferrri if not the Mercedes, but they can't use it because of the silly tokens rule. It's supposed to be a development formula, so let them get on and develop!
    Which is ridiculous, I also agree with Bernie that the regulations on grid penalties for "changing spark plugs" is also a crazy system. What the FIA have done is close off new entrants. Toyota, Ford and VW have all been interested in coming into the sport but have been unable to win concessions on the token system so backed away. Honda were lucky because they were only a year late, they and McLaren are still paying the price for that late entry. We need the FIA to derestrict engine development and raise the engine limit to 8 per year. That would help bring Ford and Toyota into the game, both of whom could massively benefit from the new hybrid engines. Toyota especially are falling behind in consumer hybrid engine development now that Mercedes, Honda and Renault are all benefitting from their racing programmes and look set to bring F1 innovation to their road cars in the next couple of years.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited September 2016
    Speedy said:

    philiph said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    Is he really acceptable to the selectorate?

    How did he vote on Iraq?
    Is he left enough?
    Is he tainted by Brownism and Blairism, and therefore a Tory?
    Leicester East is 58% asian, quite the difference from the 94% british of Morley.
    It would be quite a challenge to parachute Ed Balls in that seat instead of an asian candidate.

    Vaz, although disgraced, should still have enough local influence to determine his successor, he would probably prefer someone from his own community.

    If Ed Balls tries to make a move it would probably lead to open warfare in Leicester, Vaz would think that Balls was behind this scandal.
    Based just on this story, Vaz won't go anywhere from his comforty seat and the electorate won't vote him out.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    The Ed Balls effect

    Strictly Come Dancing's series launch got an average of 9.3 million viewers on Saturday night - a record audience for an opening episode of the show.

    The audience peaked at 10.1 million as the BBC One show's 14th series began, with celebrities and professional dancers meeting for the first time.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-37270968
    Didn't watch, Did he get the new Russian Blonde? :open_mouth:
    He got a Russian, but I don't think she was blonde. Yvette was watching closely from the front row.
    I bet she was... Ed wouldn't risk his great "comeback" on a showmance with a Russian half his age though would he?
    Nor would a Russian dancing beauty wreck her hard won reputation on a clamped out Brownite who doesn't even have a grace and favour mansion, surely.
  • Options

    Speedy said:

    philiph said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    Is he really acceptable to the selectorate?

    How did he vote on Iraq?
    Is he left enough?
    Is he tainted by Brownism and Blairism, and therefore a Tory?
    Leicester East is 58% asian, quite the difference from the 94% british of Morley.
    It would be quite a challenge to parachute Ed Balls in that seat instead of an asian candidate.

    Vaz, although disgraced, should still have enough local influence to determine his successor, he would probably prefer someone from his own community.

    If Ed Balls tries to make a move it would probably lead to open warfare in Leicester, Vaz would think that Balls was behind this scandal.
    Based just on this story, Vaz won't go anywhere from his comforty seat and the electorate won't vote him out.
    Yeh, but wait until he gets home to Mrs Vaz.
  • Options
    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    England: Hart; Walker, Cahill, Smalling, Rose; Dier, Henderson; Lallana, Rooney, Sterling; Kane

    Sigh....Uncle Roy XI.

    It's not what you've got it's what you do with it.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Well Obama's pivot to Asia is getting buggered at the moment by Japan making nice with the Russians.
  • Options
    In 1997, the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) at Edinburgh was presented with research conducted by Drs. Sarianna Lundan and Geoffrey Jones, and commissioned by the Commonwealth Secretariat. The paper, entitled “The ‘Commonwealth Effect’ and the Process of Internationalisation”, measured whether or not Commonwealth jurisdictions enjoyed a qualitative advantage in trade with one another as opposed to equivalent non-Commonwealth nations. Their research found that even in the absence of trade treaties, there was a clear cost advantage in trade between Commonwealth nations, and that the overhead costs of doing business were reduced by up to 15 percent in comparison to trade outside the Commonwealth.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_free_trade&ved=0ahUKEwjY97Kd-_XOAhUBBBoKHW5HCY8QFggbMAA&usg=AFQjCNEDJmWQ5NAQC-vWpKsuFbgl59rjEQ
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    philiph said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    Is he really acceptable to the selectorate?

    How did he vote on Iraq?
    Is he left enough?
    Is he tainted by Brownism and Blairism, and therefore a Tory?
    Leicester East is 58% asian, quite the difference from the 94% british of Morley.
    It would be quite a challenge to parachute Ed Balls in that seat instead of an asian candidate.

    Vaz, although disgraced, should still have enough local influence to determine his successor, he would probably prefer someone from his own community.

    If Ed Balls tries to make a move it would probably lead to open warfare in Leicester, Vaz would think that Balls was behind this scandal.
    Based just on this story, Vaz won't go anywhere from his comforty seat and the electorate won't vote him out.
    I know, that is why I think it is far fetched to think this is about Ed Balls trying to get into Parliament.

    I think it's about the N.E.C.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited September 2016

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    That's my take. They are all jockeying for their own national interests, which is fine and what you would expect any leader/government to do.

    I think though, they are genuinely shocked that are all these years the British are finally doing what's best for their own interest...
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    Genuine Question: Which faction in Labour would benefit from a grade one scandal blowing up over the late Mr Janner and those in the party that were close to him and which would be badly damaged?

    No names please just keep it to hard left types, centre left types or modernisers?
  • Options
    John_M said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Looks like Theresa is generally getting a bloody good finger wagging from the G20... From the back of the queue to the naughty step? ;)

    I completely agree that they're picking on the new girl though :).
    The new girl must be upset that:

    - Vaz
    - China G20
    - Saint Theresa
    - Nicola Sturgeon

    Have pushed her ear bashing down to number 5 on the BBC's 'Most read' list.....

    I see Merkel in no rush to have 10% duties on cars or their components, or Obama having anything to do with US Trade deals in a few months. The US are p*ssed off we're leaving the EU because we were one of their most reliable allies within the EU.....now they'll have to deal with the French......
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,895
    Afternoon all :)

    After a nice walk with her husband and telling off Curly, Mo and Larry, the Prime Minister has gone up a steep learning curve at the G20 meeting it would seem.

    For some strange reason, other countries aren't as welcoming or supportive of our vote to leave the EU as some of the Brexiteers might have imagined.

    Britain is not an island (yes, I'm afraid it is, Stodge !!) and finding our new "place" in the world isn't just going to be a matter of trade agreements and photo opportunities.

    We already see the Single Market as an area of dispute internally and it seems it will be externally as well.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    In 1997, the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) at Edinburgh was presented with research conducted by Drs. Sarianna Lundan and Geoffrey Jones, and commissioned by the Commonwealth Secretariat. The paper, entitled “The ‘Commonwealth Effect’ and the Process of Internationalisation”, measured whether or not Commonwealth jurisdictions enjoyed a qualitative advantage in trade with one another as opposed to equivalent non-Commonwealth nations. Their research found that even in the absence of trade treaties, there was a clear cost advantage in trade between Commonwealth nations, and that the overhead costs of doing business were reduced by up to 15 percent in comparison to trade outside the Commonwealth.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_free_trade&ved=0ahUKEwjY97Kd-_XOAhUBBBoKHW5HCY8QFggbMAA&usg=AFQjCNEDJmWQ5NAQC-vWpKsuFbgl59rjEQ

    We really need to press on with a European Economic Commonwealth.

    For short, we can call it the EEC.....
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Genuine Question: Which faction in Labour would benefit from a grade one scandal blowing up over the late Mr Janner and those in the party that were close to him and which would be badly damaged?

    No names please just keep it to hard left types, centre left types or modernisers?

    Since the Mirror is behind this, I say modernisers think they have most to gain.
    But it will backfire on them as usual.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Genuine Question: Which faction in Labour would benefit from a grade one scandal blowing up over the late Mr Janner and those in the party that were close to him.

    No names please just keep it to hard left types, centre left types or modernisers?

    I don't think either faction would. Janner left parliament too long ago.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    nunu said:

    Mortimer said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-ground-game-insiders-224998

    I would like to hear from LEAVE canvassers across the U.K and compare it to Trump's. Was it better, worse?

    Amazing how those with a weak campaign strategy and unpopular candidate pin hopes on an excellent ground game. Remember IOS?
    No. what did he say?
    Pre May 2015 - loads of baloney about how the Labour ground game was going to ensure victory. Strangely, he disappeared after that exit poll.....
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

  • Options
    weejonnie said:

    England: Hart; Walker, Cahill, Smalling, Rose; Dier, Henderson; Lallana, Rooney, Sterling; Kane

    Sigh....Uncle Roy XI.

    It's not what you've got it's what you do with it.
    I always feel like Lallana is making up the numbers.
  • Options

    In 1997, the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) at Edinburgh was presented with research conducted by Drs. Sarianna Lundan and Geoffrey Jones, and commissioned by the Commonwealth Secretariat. The paper, entitled “The ‘Commonwealth Effect’ and the Process of Internationalisation”, measured whether or not Commonwealth jurisdictions enjoyed a qualitative advantage in trade with one another as opposed to equivalent non-Commonwealth nations. Their research found that even in the absence of trade treaties, there was a clear cost advantage in trade between Commonwealth nations, and that the overhead costs of doing business were reduced by up to 15 percent in comparison to trade outside the Commonwealth.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_free_trade&ved=0ahUKEwjY97Kd-_XOAhUBBBoKHW5HCY8QFggbMAA&usg=AFQjCNEDJmWQ5NAQC-vWpKsuFbgl59rjEQ

    We really need to press on with a European Economic Commonwealth.

    For short, we can call it the EEC.....
    English Economic Commonwealth sounds better.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

    I think that League comprises Paul alone! I don't know. I don't really have the appetite to carry on pretendy negotiations with imaginary trade partners. It's just a matter of waiting to see what Mrs May and her army of numberless minions come up with.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    nunu said:

    Speedy said:

    For those paying attention the US Presidential election starts this Friday, with postal voting in N.Carolina :
    http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/election-calendar

    as of Aug 30th the trump camp have 0 campaign offices, Clinton has 30 in North Carolina.
    And it's basically neck and neck in the polls there. Says a lot about Clinton!
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    2 good polls for Clinton. (On RCP)
    Pennsylvania +8
    N Carolina +4
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited September 2016

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November. Also while Australia and New Zealand have centre right governments and will swiftly do a trade deal with the UK, Canada has a Liberal PM of part French Canadian heritage and while Trudeau would do a deal with the UK he will be in no rush, after all he opposed Brexit and like Hillary would be more focused on TPP and Canada's trade deal with the EU first
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November
    We do plenty of trade with the US just based on the GATT accords. The US is probably the one trade area we don't need to worry about.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    weejonnie said:

    2 good polls for Clinton. (On RCP)
    Pennsylvania +8
    N Carolina +4

    Poor timing for my post! hah
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November
    What's Clinton's position on this?
  • Options
    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/03/g20-theresa-may-in-talks-over-a-free-trade-deal-with-australia-a/

    "May is to open talks on landmark new free trade deal with Australia, as she declares Britain will lead the world in global commerce outside the European Union.......

    Mrs May’s efforts to make Britain a “great trading nation” received a further boost with news that Australia, New Zealand and Canada will lend the government their own expert trade negotiators.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Speedy said:

    For those paying attention the US Presidential election starts this Friday, with postal voting in N.Carolina :
    http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/election-calendar

    as of Aug 30th the trump camp have 0 campaign offices, Clinton has 30 in North Carolina.
    And it's basically neck and neck in the polls there. Says a lot about Clinton!
    Yes. That she is better organised!

  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, I'm intrigued to see how Honda do next year.

    Yes, so am I. They seem to be getting their ducks in a row quite well, I'm hoping that all the engine manufacturers can be competitive with Mercedes and we'll get back to driver vs driver action rather than just engine power and tyre strategy deciding the races.
    Indeed. It's said that Honda have made a major change to their engine which puts it up with the Ferrri if not the Mercedes, but they can't use it because of the silly tokens rule. It's supposed to be a development formula, so let them get on and develop!
    Which is ridiculous, I also agree with Bernie that the regulations on grid penalties for "changing spark plugs" is also a crazy system. What the FIA have done is close off new entrants. Toyota, Ford and VW have all been interested in coming into the sport but have been unable to win concessions on the token system so backed away. Honda were lucky because they were only a year late, they and McLaren are still paying the price for that late entry. We need the FIA to derestrict engine development and raise the engine limit to 8 per year. That would help bring Ford and Toyota into the game, both of whom could massively benefit from the new hybrid engines. Toyota especially are falling behind in consumer hybrid engine development now that Mercedes, Honda and Renault are all benefitting from their racing programmes and look set to bring F1 innovation to their road cars in the next couple of years.
    Surely Toyota are getting a massive amount of hybrid experience with their successful hybrid LMP cars?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/03/g20-theresa-may-in-talks-over-a-free-trade-deal-with-australia-a/
    Does that involve free movement?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November
    What's Clinton's position on this?
    Unlike Trump she opposed Brexit and her position is to deal with the EU first before the UK like Obama
  • Options
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November
    What's Clinton's position on this?
    I simply don't agree wutg HYFUD. Obama sounded like a man hemmed in, between his Asian pivot, the failure of TTIP and his pre-Brexit comments. Even Clinton will have a lot more space to do something more useful with TTIP and a new relationship with the ex-EU UK. TTIP will be interred pretty quickly in its current form...
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November. Also while Australia and New Zealand have centre right governments and will swiftly do a trade deal with the UK, Canada has a Liberal PM of part French Canadian heritage and while Trudeau would do a deal with the UK he will be in no rush, after all he opposed Brexit and like Hillary would be more focused on TPP and Canada's trade deal with the EU first
    I don't think Trump favours free trade with anyone.

    Indeed he seems very much in favour of protective tariffs for US industries. A sort of update on 1930's isolationism.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Speedy said:

    For those paying attention the US Presidential election starts this Friday, with postal voting in N.Carolina :
    http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/election-calendar

    as of Aug 30th the trump camp have 0 campaign offices, Clinton has 30 in North Carolina.
    And it's basically neck and neck in the polls there. Says a lot about Clinton!
    Yes. That she is better organised!

    Or that she's good at spending other people's money :p
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited September 2016
    FPT @edmundintokyo

    Japanese veterinary vaccines aren't a good example. It's a complete muddle - very few of the MNCs compete in the space because of the complexity of market structures (although all of them would like to). basically designed to protect local players

    EW Gruppe is the only almost indigenous foreigm player and they only achieved that through an acquisition
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Speedy said:

    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

    Free movement isn't going to happen, a privileged movement zone or easier visa system might be within the realms of possibility though, at least between the four nations and possibly South Africa. If we implement a system where anyone with a job that pays over £33k per year is granted a working visa from the other three countries and allowed temporary or short term work visas for anything above £20k I think that would be a good start. That's the kind of system I'd like to see implemented with the EU as well, and within the remaining EU countries too so that the bad blood created by free movement doesn't destroy the bloc completely.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Speedy said:

    For those paying attention the US Presidential election starts this Friday, with postal voting in N.Carolina :
    http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/election-calendar

    as of Aug 30th the trump camp have 0 campaign offices, Clinton has 30 in North Carolina.
    And it's basically neck and neck in the polls there. Says a lot about Clinton!
    Yes. That she is better organised!

    ot was won by Romney in 2012. Says a lot about Trump!

    I'm suprised about the number of Trump supporters on here, they seem to think there is an equvilence between a referundum and Trump.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Mortimer said:

    nunu said:

    Mortimer said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-ground-game-insiders-224998

    I would like to hear from LEAVE canvassers across the U.K and compare it to Trump's. Was it better, worse?

    Amazing how those with a weak campaign strategy and unpopular candidate pin hopes on an excellent ground game. Remember IOS?
    No. what did he say?
    Pre May 2015 - loads of baloney about how the Labour ground game was going to ensure victory. Strangely, he disappeared after that exit poll.....
    ah yes that exit poll......which even that underestimated the Tories, what was the reason for that?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November
    We do plenty of trade with the US just based on the GATT accords. The US is probably the one trade area we don't need to worry about.
    Yes but the terms of a new trade deal will have to wait for years if Hillary wins and the GOP lose Congress which may concern UK exporters who want certainty exporting to the U.S., their biggest market outside the EU. If the UK is outside the single market completely Hillary will certainly be in no rush to do anything
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, I'm intrigued to see how Honda do next year.

    Yes, so am I. They seem to be getting their ducks in a row quite well, I'm hoping that all the engine manufacturers can be competitive with Mercedes and we'll get back to driver vs driver action rather than just engine power and tyre strategy deciding the races.
    Indeed. It's said that Honda have made a major change to their engine which puts it up with the Ferrri if not the Mercedes, but they can't use it because of the silly tokens rule. It's supposed to be a development formula, so let them get on and develop!
    Which is ridiculous, I also agree with Bernie that the regulations on grid penalties for "changing spark plugs" is also a crazy system. What the FIA have done is close off new entrants. Toyota, Ford and VW have all been interested in coming into the sport but have been unable to win concessions on the token system so backed away. Honda were lucky because they were only a year late, they and McLaren are still paying the price for that late entry. We need the FIA to derestrict engine development and raise the engine limit to 8 per year. That would help bring Ford and Toyota into the game, both of whom could massively benefit from the new hybrid engines. Toyota especially are falling behind in consumer hybrid engine development now that Mercedes, Honda and Renault are all benefitting from their racing programmes and look set to bring F1 innovation to their road cars in the next couple of years.
    Surely Toyota are getting a massive amount of hybrid experience with their successful hybrid LMP cars?
    Well they were well ahead of the curve because of LMP, but F1 development is well beyond that and not being in it is putting them at a disadvantage to Mercedes, Honda and Renault/Nissan/Infiniti.
  • Options

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/03/g20-theresa-may-in-talks-over-a-free-trade-deal-with-australia-a/
    Does that involve free movement?
    Its sort of inevitable.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/reciprocal-living-and-working-rights-backed-in-uk-australia-nz-and-canada.

    "A new poll has found “overwhelming support” within Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom for granting nationals reciprocal rights to live and work freely in each other’s countries, as new immigration policies shortly to take effect in the UK have the opposite effect.

    The Royal Commonwealth Society’s survey showed that most people are in support of removing barriers to live and work in the four countries, with support among New Zealanders as high as 82%. Some 75% of Canadians, 70% of Australians and 58% of Britons are also in favour.

    Support has skyrocketed among young adults aged between 18 and 35, with 90% of New Zealanders and 80% of Australians in favour."

    and this lot are actively campaigning for it.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.cfmo.org/&ved=0ahUKEwji-cb8gfbOAhUDVBQKHe3cDdAQFggfMAI&usg=AFQjCNH85j5D4wTCIOqBvPOWZipbWcoaLw
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    weejonnie said:

    2 good polls for Clinton. (On RCP)
    Pennsylvania +8
    N Carolina +4

    Poor timing for my post! hah
    I think Trump is guaranteed to lose because he has surrounded himself with out of touch sycophants :

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/on-trump-immigration-debate-its-about-messaging-not-policy/2016/09/01/0d0baece-7071-11e6-9705-23e51a2f424d_story.html?postshare=2421472777926796&tid=ss_tw

    "One Trump ally involved in the talks Thursday described Wednesday’s drama as the “day that won him the election” because of Trump’s reiteration of his conservative views on immigration"

    "These advisers urged Trump to use tough, nativist language in his immigration speech in Phoenix on Wednesday to create as sharp a contrast as possible with Clinton. They argued that by showing strength and force of leadership, Trump will attract undecided voters."

    " “We had a serious adult conversation about where we are. The people that won this debate said, ‘Look, this is what got us here, and we can’t abandon it,’ ” "

    The fact is a majority of americans want the opposite of what those advisors say and they are oblivious to it.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

    Free movement isn't going to happen, a privileged movement zone or easier visa system might be within the realms of possibility though, at least between the four nations and possibly South Africa. If we implement a system where anyone with a job that pays over £33k per year is granted a working visa from the other three countries and allowed temporary or short term work visas for anything above £20k I think that would be a good start. That's the kind of system I'd like to see implemented with the EU as well, and within the remaining EU countries too so that the bad blood created by free movement doesn't destroy the bloc completely.
    I don't think such a scheme would be politically possible either in the UK, or in Australasia.

    Australia is a much less British heritage country than it once was, and like New Zealand sees itself as part of the Pacific rim.

    All NZ lamb is halal for example as the main export market is the Middle East.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November
    What's Clinton's position on this?
    Unlike Trump she opposed Brexit and her position is to deal with the EU first before the UK like Obama
    She clearly sees Brexit as against US interests.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OefZJvlfM_I
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited September 2016
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    weejonnie said:

    2 good polls for Clinton. (On RCP)
    Pennsylvania +8
    N Carolina +4

    Poor timing for my post! hah
    I think Trump is guaranteed to lose because he has surrounded himself with out of touch sycophants :

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/on-trump-immigration-debate-its-about-messaging-not-policy/2016/09/01/0d0baece-7071-11e6-9705-23e51a2f424d_story.html?postshare=2421472777926796&tid=ss_tw

    "One Trump ally involved in the talks Thursday described Wednesday’s drama as the “day that won him the election” because of Trump’s reiteration of his conservative views on immigration"

    "These advisers urged Trump to use tough, nativist language in his immigration speech in Phoenix on Wednesday to create as sharp a contrast as possible with Clinton. They argued that by showing strength and force of leadership, Trump will attract undecided voters."

    " “We had a serious adult conversation about where we are. The people that won this debate said, ‘Look, this is what got us here, and we can’t abandon it,’ ” "

    The fact is a majority of americans want the opposite of what those advisors say and they are oblivious to it.
    It is beyond me why Trump advisers haven't got him to pivot and concentrated all his fire on the Benny Sanders angle that outsourcing of Americans jobs is really bad, America needs to change, Clinton is just more of the same*.

    * I am not saying I agree with Sanders / Trump critique of the situation, but it is what a lot of people in America outside of the big cities think.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Speedy said:

    For those paying attention the US Presidential election starts this Friday, with postal voting in N.Carolina :
    http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/election-calendar

    as of Aug 30th the trump camp have 0 campaign offices, Clinton has 30 in North Carolina.
    And it's basically neck and neck in the polls there. Says a lot about Clinton!
    Yes. That she is better organised!

    Or that she's good at spending other people's money :p
    If there's one thing she's very good at, it's spending other people's money!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited September 2016

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November
    What's Clinton's position on this?
    I simply don't agree wutg HYFUD. Obama sounded like a man hemmed in, between his Asian pivot, the failure of TTIP and his pre-Brexit comments. Even Clinton will have a lot more space to do something more useful with TTIP and a new relationship with the ex-EU UK. TTIP will be interred pretty quickly in its current form...
    If Hillary has a Democratic Congress she may revive TTIP in a new form and any European trade deals will go through the EU first, deals with the UK will go right to the bottom of Hillary's in-tray
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Speedy said:

    For those paying attention the US Presidential election starts this Friday, with postal voting in N.Carolina :
    http://ncsbe2.azurewebsites.net/election-calendar

    as of Aug 30th the trump camp have 0 campaign offices, Clinton has 30 in North Carolina.
    And it's basically neck and neck in the polls there. Says a lot about Clinton!
    Yes. That she is better organised!

    Or that she's good at spending other people's money :p
    If there's one thing she's very good at, it's taking spending other people's money!
    Fixed for you.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November. Also while Australia and New Zealand have centre right governments and will swiftly do a trade deal with the UK, Canada has a Liberal PM of part French Canadian heritage and while Trudeau would do a deal with the UK he will be in no rush, after all he opposed Brexit and like Hillary would be more focused on TPP and Canada's trade deal with the EU first
    I don't think Trump favours free trade with anyone.

    Indeed he seems very much in favour of protective tariffs for US industries. A sort of update on 1930's isolationism.
    Trump will certainly take the US out of NAFTA and maybe the WTO too however if he does do a trade deal with anyone the UK will be at the top of his list, certainly Trump would rather deal with the UK than the EU which he loathes
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

    Free movement isn't going to happen, a privileged movement zone or easier visa system might be within the realms of possibility though, at least between the four nations and possibly South Africa. If we implement a system where anyone with a job that pays over £33k per year is granted a working visa from the other three countries and allowed temporary or short term work visas for anything above £20k I think that would be a good start. That's the kind of system I'd like to see implemented with the EU as well, and within the remaining EU countries too so that the bad blood created by free movement doesn't destroy the bloc completely.
    I don't think such a scheme would be politically possible either in the UK, or in Australasia.

    Australia is a much less British heritage country than it once was, and like New Zealand sees itself as part of the Pacific rim.

    All NZ lamb is halal for example as the main export market is the Middle East.
    I don't see why it would be politically difficult, I'd imagine such a scheme would get popular backing from the public in all four nations tbh. Reciprocal visa rights are not usually controversial, especially when they are limited to higher wage jobs.
  • Options

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/03/g20-theresa-may-in-talks-over-a-free-trade-deal-with-australia-a/
    Does that involve free movement?
    Its sort of inevitable.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/reciprocal-living-and-working-rights-backed-in-uk-australia-nz-and-canada.

    "A new poll has found “overwhelming support” within Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom for granting nationals reciprocal rights to live and work freely in each other’s countries, as new immigration policies shortly to take effect in the UK have the opposite effect.

    The Royal Commonwealth Society’s survey showed that most people are in support of removing barriers to live and work in the four countries, with support among New Zealanders as high as 82%. Some 75% of Canadians, 70% of Australians and 58% of Britons are also in favour.

    Support has skyrocketed among young adults aged between 18 and 35, with 90% of New Zealanders and 80% of Australians in favour."

    and this lot are actively campaigning for it.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.cfmo.org/&ved=0ahUKEwji-cb8gfbOAhUDVBQKHe3cDdAQFggfMAI&usg=AFQjCNH85j5D4wTCIOqBvPOWZipbWcoaLw
    Freedom of movement with countries that have immigration policies designed to increase their populations would go down like a lead balloon with the anti immigration Brexiters as it would act as a back door route into the UK for the people they would like to keep out.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, I'm intrigued to see how Honda do next year.

    Yes, so am I. They seem to be getting their ducks in a row quite well, I'm hoping that all the engine manufacturers can be competitive with Mercedes and we'll get back to driver vs driver action rather than just engine power and tyre strategy deciding the races.
    Indeed. It's said that Honda have made a major change to their engine which puts it up with the Ferrri if not the Mercedes, but they can't use it because of the silly tokens rule. It's supposed to be a development formula, so let them get on and develop!
    Which is ridiculous, I also agree with Bernie that the regulations on grid penalties for "changing spark plugs" is also a crazy system. What the FIA have done is close off new entrants. Toyota, Ford and VW have all been interested in coming into the sport but have been unable to win concessions on the token system so backed away. Honda were lucky because they were only a year late, they and McLaren are still paying the price for that late entry. We need the FIA to derestrict engine development and raise the engine limit to 8 per year. That would help bring Ford and Toyota into the game, both of whom could massively benefit from the new hybrid engines. Toyota especially are falling behind in consumer hybrid engine development now that Mercedes, Honda and Renault are all benefitting from their racing programmes and look set to bring F1 innovation to their road cars in the next couple of years.
    Surely Toyota are getting a massive amount of hybrid experience with their successful hybrid LMP cars?
    Well they were well ahead of the curve because of LMP, but F1 development is well beyond that and not being in it is putting them at a disadvantage to Mercedes, Honda and Renault/Nissan/Infiniti.
    Agreed. What F1 are doing is a stage on from the LMP1 cars, although still very restrictive. I'd give the F1 teams 100kg of fuel then reduce it by 3% a year, with engine design being completely free.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:


    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident

    Well the last yougov national had shown a tightening of the race at 47-44 for Hillary and Trump.

    But if being down by 3 nationally and down by 8 in Pennsylvania and 4 in N.Carolina with the same pollster on the same time period, says a lot.

    For Trump to be leading in Pennsylvania he has to be leading nationally by 5 points, impossible to be done, and for N.Carolina he has to leading by 1 nationally, without N.C. it's impossible for him to win.

    And Trump's advisors are so oblivious to the outer world that they thought his crappy immigration speech won him the election.

    If someone wants to know what the people think they should go out, Trump will learn nothing in his Tower and his rallies, the King of Jordan goes out disguised as a taxi driver to find what his people think.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November
    What's Clinton's position on this?
    Unlike Trump she opposed Brexit and her position is to deal with the EU first before the UK like Obama
    She clearly sees Brexit as against US interests.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OefZJvlfM_I
    Hillary equates BREXIT backers like Farage as allies of Putin and enemies of the US
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November. Also while Australia and New Zealand have centre right governments and will swiftly do a trade deal with the UK, Canada has a Liberal PM of part French Canadian heritage and while Trudeau would do a deal with the UK he will be in no rush, after all he opposed Brexit and like Hillary would be more focused on TPP and Canada's trade deal with the EU first
    I don't think Trump favours free trade with anyone.

    Indeed he seems very much in favour of protective tariffs for US industries. A sort of update on 1930's isolationism.
    Trump will certainly take the US out of NAFTA and maybe the WTO too however if he does do a trade deal with anyone the UK will be at the top of his list, certainly Trump would rather deal with the UK than the EU which he loathes
    I don't get the sense that Trump has any strong feelings on the EU one way or the other but he strongly opposes Germany's policies on Syrian refugees.

    There is some political logic that pursuing a bilateral trade deal with the UK would be a quick win for his vision of a world without a multilateral system, but that's no reason to believe that any such deal would be on terms favourable to the UK.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited September 2016

    MaxPB said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    Has anyone outside the PB League of Empire Loyalists made a proposal for a free movement zone with the Old Commonwealth?

    Free movement isn't going to happen, a privileged movement zone or easier visa system might be within the realms of possibility though, at least between the four nations and possibly South Africa. If we implement a system where anyone with a job that pays over £33k per year is granted a working visa from the other three countries and allowed temporary or short term work visas for anything above £20k I think that would be a good start. That's the kind of system I'd like to see implemented with the EU as well, and within the remaining EU countries too so that the bad blood created by free movement doesn't destroy the bloc completely.
    I don't think such a scheme would be politically possible either in the UK, or in Australasia.

    Australia is a much less British heritage country than it once was, and like New Zealand sees itself as part of the Pacific rim.

    All NZ lamb is halal for example as the main export market is the Middle East.
    Australia and New Zealand still both have populations of majority British heritage and Australia is the main destination of emigration for Britons too
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident
    the one the day poll had remain ahead but I think a couple days before it was 52-48 to Leave, all in all Margin of error stuff.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited September 2016
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:


    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident

    Well the last yougov national had shown a tightening of the race at 47-44 for Hillary and Trump.

    But if being down by 3 nationally and down by 8 in Pennsylvania and 4 in N.Carolina with the same pollster on the same time period, says a lot.

    For Trump to be leading in Pennsylvania he has to be leading nationally by 5 points, impossible to be done, and for N.Carolina he has to leading by 1 nationally, without N.C. it's impossible for him to win.

    And Trump's advisors are so oblivious to the outer world that they thought his crappy immigration speech won him the election.

    If someone wants to know what the people think they should go out, Trump will learn nothing in his Tower and his rallies, the King of Jordan goes out disguised as a taxi driver to find what his people think.
    Emerson last week had Trump just 3% behind in Pennsylvania and ahead by 2% in North Carolina. Franklin last week had Trump 5% behind in Pennsylvania
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident
    the one the day poll had remain ahead but I think a couple days before it was 52-48 to Leave, all in all Margin of error stuff.
    Final YOuGov was 51-49 to Remain although a week before they did have a 39-46 Leave.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited September 2016
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident
    the one the day poll had remain ahead but I think a couple days before it was 52-48 to Leave, all in all Margin of error stuff.
    Yougov's on the day poll gave Remain a 4% lead, in the end Leave won by 4%. A similar error in Pennsylvania and Trump and Clinton are tied
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    edited September 2016
    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident
    the one the day poll had remain ahead but I think a couple days before it was 52-48 to Leave, all in all Margin of error stuff.
    Yougov's on the day poll gave Remain a 4% lead, in the end Leave won by 4%. A similar error in Pennsylvania and Trump and Clinton are tied
    Hm, not according to the list here

    Unless it is incomplete?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37270372

    In that case we should be blocking the sale of ARM to softbank.

    Basically they are saying please get on with it and please stsy in the single market for goods or have equivalent regulations.

    Obama is talking bollocks saying the US priorities are trade deals with US and pacific countries. The EU one is dead, he dosent command a majority in either house and he is out of office after Christmas.

    If a free trade and movement zone is sorted with Canada, Aus and NZ as now seems likely the US will want in rapidly. They didnt spend half a century opposing imperial preference just to sit on the sidelines while imperial economic zone is set up on their northern border.

    Joseph Chamberlain will be having a wry laugh on the other side...
    However if Hillary wins and the Democrats gain Congress the UK really will be 'at the back of the queue. ' BREXIT backers should be rooting for Trump and the GOP in November. Also while Australia and New Zealand have centre right governments and will swiftly do a trade deal with the UK, Canada has a Liberal PM of part French Canadian heritage and while Trudeau would do a deal with the UK he will be in no rush, after all he opposed Brexit and like Hillary would be more focused on TPP and Canada's trade deal with the EU first
    I don't think Trump favours free trade with anyone.

    Indeed he seems very much in favour of protective tariffs for US industries. A sort of update on 1930's isolationism.
    Trump will certainly take the US out of NAFTA and maybe the WTO too however if he does do a trade deal with anyone the UK will be at the top of his list, certainly Trump would rather deal with the UK than the EU which he loathes
    I don't get the sense that Trump has any strong feelings on the EU one way or the other but he strongly opposes Germany's policies on Syrian refugees.

    There is some political logic that pursuing a bilateral trade deal with the UK would be a quick win for his vision of a world without a multilateral system, but that's no reason to believe that any such deal would be on terms favourable to the UK.
    He would do a deal which favoured the US as much as the UK but he would do a deal, Trump despuses the EU as he despises NAFTA as multilateral bodies undermining national identity and his white working class base. Hillary on the other hand loves both NAFTA and the EU
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident
    the one the day poll had remain ahead but I think a couple days before it was 52-48 to Leave, all in all Margin of error stuff.
    Yougov's on the day poll gave Remain a 4% lead, in the end Leave won by 4%. A similar error in Pennsylvania and Trump and Clinton are tied
    Hm, not according to the list here

    Unless it is incomplete?
    Yougov's on the day poll had it Remain 52% Leave 48% and was released after polls closed
  • Options
    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited September 2016



    Freedom of movement with countries that have immigration policies designed to increase their populations would go down like a lead balloon with the anti immigration Brexiters as it would act as a back door route into the UK for the people they would like to keep out.

    Really... lol

    Immigration from countries that have strict points-based immigration systems... it's not quite the same as immigration from, say, Germany which has, um, not exactly a "points-based" system, but rather a complete open door and welcome mat to the entire Islamic world.

    Anyhow, keep up the mental gymnastics. The cognitive dissonance required is going to get harder and harder
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:


    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident

    Well the last yougov national had shown a tightening of the race at 47-44 for Hillary and Trump.

    But if being down by 3 nationally and down by 8 in Pennsylvania and 4 in N.Carolina with the same pollster on the same time period, says a lot.

    For Trump to be leading in Pennsylvania he has to be leading nationally by 5 points, impossible to be done, and for N.Carolina he has to leading by 1 nationally, without N.C. it's impossible for him to win.

    And Trump's advisors are so oblivious to the outer world that they thought his crappy immigration speech won him the election.

    If someone wants to know what the people think they should go out, Trump will learn nothing in his Tower and his rallies, the King of Jordan goes out disguised as a taxi driver to find what his people think.
    Emerson last week had Trump just 3% behind in Pennsylvania
    I don't trust any single pollster.

    All other pollsters since have Pennsylvania at a 6-9 point Hillary lead.

    Even if the national polls have tightened, Pennsylvania, N.H, and N.C have not.

    Trump's collapse was not uniform and neither is his recovery, so now Pennsylvania, N.H and N.C. are to the left of Michigan, Maine, Oregon and Iowa.

    Trump has better chances of winning Michigan than Pennsylvania, Maine than N.Hampshire, Iowa than N.Carolina, but all of the replacements are smaller than the originals hence he is losing.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident
    the one the day poll had remain ahead but I think a couple days before it was 52-48 to Leave, all in all Margin of error stuff.
    Yougov's on the day poll gave Remain a 4% lead, in the end Leave won by 4%. A similar error in Pennsylvania and Trump and Clinton are tied
    Hm, not according to the list here

    Unless it is incomplete?
    Yougov's on the day poll had it Remain 52% Leave 48% and was released after polls closed
    Was that an exit poll or a normal poll? I could imagine there being methodological differences between the two.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Speedy said:

    philiph said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    Is he really acceptable to the selectorate?

    How did he vote on Iraq?
    Is he left enough?
    Is he tainted by Brownism and Blairism, and therefore a Tory?
    Leicester East is 58% asian, quite the difference from the 94% british of Morley.
    It would be quite a challenge to parachute Ed Balls in that seat instead of an asian candidate.

    Vaz, although disgraced, should still have enough local influence to determine his successor, he would probably prefer someone from his own community.

    If Ed Balls tries to make a move it would probably lead to open warfare in Leicester, Vaz would think that Balls was behind this scandal.
    "from his own community"

    Please tell me you are meaning geographic area rather than anything else.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956



    Freedom of movement with countries that have immigration policies designed to increase their populations would go down like a lead balloon with the anti immigration Brexiters as it would act as a back door route into the UK for the people they would like to keep out.

    Really... lol

    Immigration from countries that have strict points-based immigration systems... it's not quite the same as immigration from, say, Germany which has, um, not exactly a "points-based" system, but rather a complete open door and welcome mat to the entire Islamic world.

    Anyhow, keep up the mental gymnastics. The cognitive dissonance required is going to get harder and harder
    I'm quite impressed with the dedication to the Remain cause by several on here. Far exceeds the levels of outrage and negativity I've witnessed elsewhere.

    But then I suppose this post could be considered by some to be bitter. Still, no capitals so maybe I'll get away with it....
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Darn - just realised this match is on ITV....
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Off topic

    http://hurryupharry.org/2016/09/03/the-battle-for-british-islam-2/


    Looks like the book might be worth a read.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Why do people have difficulty believing that the US race is almost over ?

    Postal voting starts in 5 days in N.Carolina where he is losing, without it it's impossible for Trump to win.
    And Trump's main policy is immigration, an issue only 6% of americans have as a priority.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Floater said:

    Speedy said:

    philiph said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    "Keith Vaz helped kill a 90s probe into the Greville Janner claims: why is he silent now?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/keith-vaz-helped-kill-90s-probe-greville-janner-claims-why-is-vaz-silent-now

    Oh dear, looks like Fleet St. have all opened their files on Vaz. This isn't going to end well for him.
    The story is a few months old.
    I think I know why the story is breaking now and from the Mirror.
    Keith Vaz is on the N.E.C.
    But the Mirror hate Corbyn.
    I know, getting rid of Vaz makes sense only if the Mirror is sure that his replacement is an unreconstructed blairite.

    Vaz was pretty much a swing vote on the N.E.C.
    Mr Strictly could be on the way to rescue Labour very soon!
    Is he really acceptable to the selectorate?

    How did he vote on Iraq?
    Is he left enough?
    Is he tainted by Brownism and Blairism, and therefore a Tory?
    Leicester East is 58% asian, quite the difference from the 94% british of Morley.
    It would be quite a challenge to parachute Ed Balls in that seat instead of an asian candidate.

    Vaz, although disgraced, should still have enough local influence to determine his successor, he would probably prefer someone from his own community.

    If Ed Balls tries to make a move it would probably lead to open warfare in Leicester, Vaz would think that Balls was behind this scandal.
    "from his own community"

    Please tell me you are meaning geographic area rather than anything else.
    His community of Catholic Goan ancestry is quite small, so I think it unlikely.

    A locally chosen candidate would most likely be a British Asian though. Of the 3 Leicester seats the other two are held by WASPs, so not unreasonable as an expectation that at least one should be a BME Labour member.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Speedy said:

    Why do people have difficulty believing that the US race is almost over ?

    Postal voting starts in 5 days in N.Carolina where he is losing, without it it's impossible for Trump to win.
    And Trump's main policy is immigration, an issue only 6% of americans have as a priority.

    Because you wrote off Trump several times during the primaries?
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident
    the one the day poll had remain ahead but I think a couple days before it was 52-48 to Leave, all in all Margin of error stuff.
    Yougov's on the day poll gave Remain a 4% lead, in the end Leave won by 4%. A similar error in Pennsylvania and Trump and Clinton are tied
    Hm, not according to the list here

    Unless it is incomplete?
    Yougov's on the day poll had it Remain 52% Leave 48% and was released after polls closed
    Fortunately there is a website that shows what the polls were:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/22/two-massive-poll-boosts-for-remain-with-voting-starting-in-less-than-nine-hours/

    Notably there may have been a late swing to Remain, but postal votes were sent when the polls showed a substantial lead for Leave.

    YouGov one week prior had Leave on 51%. Pretty accurate it seems.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Speedy said:

    Why do people have difficulty believing that the US race is almost over ?

    Postal voting starts in 5 days in N.Carolina where he is losing, without it it's impossible for Trump to win.
    And Trump's main policy is immigration, an issue only 6% of americans have as a priority.

    Because the last two years have seen lots of elections defy expectations, and odds too.
  • Options
    PlatoSaid said:

    Speedy said:

    Why do people have difficulty believing that the US race is almost over ?

    Postal voting starts in 5 days in N.Carolina where he is losing, without it it's impossible for Trump to win.
    And Trump's main policy is immigration, an issue only 6% of americans have as a priority.

    Because you wrote off Trump several times during the primaries?
    Let's not forget Speedy is on a political betting website, if they think it's all over, they know what to do...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Speedy said:

    Why do people have difficulty believing that the US race is almost over ?

    Postal voting starts in 5 days in N.Carolina where he is losing, without it it's impossible for Trump to win.
    And Trump's main policy is immigration, an issue only 6% of americans have as a priority.

    Excuse me! This from the person who said Trump had lost the S Carolina primary after polls had closed. Trump is now closer to Hillary than McCain and Romney were to Obama with the debates yet to come. Of course immigration is a major issue too otherwise Trump would never have won the GOP primaries in the first place
  • Options
    Mortimer said:



    Freedom of movement with countries that have immigration policies designed to increase their populations would go down like a lead balloon with the anti immigration Brexiters as it would act as a back door route into the UK for the people they would like to keep out.

    Really... lol

    Immigration from countries that have strict points-based immigration systems... it's not quite the same as immigration from, say, Germany which has, um, not exactly a "points-based" system, but rather a complete open door and welcome mat to the entire Islamic world.

    Anyhow, keep up the mental gymnastics. The cognitive dissonance required is going to get harder and harder
    I'm quite impressed with the dedication to the Remain cause by several on here. Far exceeds the levels of outrage and negativity I've witnessed elsewhere.

    But then I suppose this post could be considered by some to be bitter. Still, no capitals so maybe I'll get away with it....
    I get the feeling that a commonwealth free trade and movement zone across six continents and a sixth of the worlds surface with Her Majesty The Queen head of it (as head of both the commonwealth and of the states concerned would make remainers heads explode
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    Anybody know where one can buy an industrial washing machine...asking for a friend.
  • Options
    Speedy said:

    Why do people have difficulty believing that the US race is almost over ?

    Postal voting starts in 5 days in N.Carolina where he is losing, without it it's impossible for Trump to win.
    And Trump's main policy is immigration, an issue only 6% of americans have as a priority.

    Because no one trusts opinion polls?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    An update to the 2016 presidential race, yougov are suggesting that the race is over and Hillary has won:

    Pennsylvania

    Hillary 45
    Trump 37
    Johnson 6
    Stein 2

    N.Carolina

    Hillary 46 +2 (from June)
    Trump 42 nc
    Johnson 4
    Stein 2

    Trump's position worsens despite adding Arizona and Georgia on their battleground states group:

    Hillary 42 -1
    Trump 40 -1

    https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident
    the one the day poll had remain ahead but I think a couple days before it was 52-48 to Leave, all in all Margin of error stuff.
    Yougov's on the day poll gave Remain a 4% lead, in the end Leave won by 4%. A similar error in Pennsylvania and Trump and Clinton are tied
    Hm, not according to the list here

    Unless it is incomplete?
    Yougov's on the day poll had it Remain 52% Leave 48% and was released after polls closed
    Was that an exit poll or a normal poll? I could imagine there being methodological differences between the two.
    It was a normal poll, there was no exit poll
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    Joe hart showing why he can't play in man city team.
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    England...like watching Brazil west ham...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited September 2016
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:


    All other pollsters have showed the race tightening and Hillary leads by just 3.2% with RCP today, i.e. less than Obama won by in 2012 against Romney. Given Yougov had Remain winning EU ref and the general election producing a hung parliament Hillary should not be too confident

    Well the last yougov national had shown a tightening of the race at 47-44 for Hillary and Trump.

    But if being down by 3 nationally and down by 8 in Pennsylvania and 4 in N.Carolina with the same pollster on the same time period, says a lot.

    For Trump to be leading in Pennsylvania he has to be leading nationally by 5 points, impossible to be done, and for N.Carolina he has to leading by 1 nationally, without N.C. it's impossible for him to win.

    And Trump's advisors are so oblivious to the outer world that they thought his crappy immigration speech won him the election.

    If someone wants to know what the people think they should go out, Trump will learn nothing in his Tower and his rallies, the King of Jordan goes out disguised as a taxi driver to find what his people think.
    Emerson last week had Trump just 3% behind in Pennsylvania
    I don't trust any single pollster.

    All other pollsters since have Pennsylvania at a 6-9 point Hillary lead.

    Even if the national polls have tightened, Pennsylvania, N.H, and N.C have not.

    Trump's collapse was not uniform and neither is his recovery, so now Pennsylvania, N.H and N.C. are to the left of Michigan, Maine, Oregon and Iowa.

    Trump has better chances of winning Michigan than Pennsylvania, Maine than N.Hampshire, Iowa than N.Carolina, but all of the replacements are smaller than the originals hence he is losing.
    Wrong as Franklin was conducted after Emerson and has a 5% Hillary lead in Pennsylvania. Of course if Trump won Michigan and Maine but lost Pennsylvania and New Hampshire he would also probably win anyway
This discussion has been closed.