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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Round up of 65+ polling on the man 56% of his backers think

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  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Sandpit, odd how PFI isn't mentioned much now, but it must still be costing a fortune.

    PFI is why Brown should be excoriated, not the false charge that he spent "too much".
    To talk about one is to talk about the other.
    Quite - and the inability to understand this was the problem that undid (and seemingly continues to undo) Labour.
    We talked a lot about the impact of Brexit on future GDP. My back of a fag packet estimate is that we lost around 9-10% of trend growth due to the crash. Our economy would have been north of £2 trillion p.a. all other things being equal (yes, I know bogus, but whatever).
    Sounds reasonable.

    Can't exactly excuse Govt from the crash can we - given that the part of the causes of the crash must be attr failure of Govt. regulation.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited September 2016
    Fergie Time winner....
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    My OH has a theory - if I say something isn't going to happen during a sports match in which I'm emotionally involved, it variably does.

    So I might claim a little of that goal - I said on c.82 minutes that we might as well not select Lallana as 'he'll never score'.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Mortimer said:

    John_M said:

    Mortimer said:

    Alistair said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    Blair spent less as a percentage of GDP from 1997 to 2001 than Major did and May is doing now, only Thatcher at the end spent as little as Blair did in his first term in the last 50 years
    Indeed, but only if you ignore the substantial expansion of PFI in that first term. And of course Brown turning on the taps in the most massive and irresponsible way, the minute the second majority was secured in 2001.
    That's a political judgement, not an economic one. It was unremarkable by international or historical standards.
    Until the excessive spending by Brown is accepted by Labour, they will not win an election
    Spending by Brown was not excessive, by historical or international standards.
    Keep telling yourself that.

    I'm happy to keep having Tory govts.
    Because they spend (and borrow) more than Labour?
    Because they have to in order to clean up Labour's mess.

    Because they ensure more employment.

    Because they cut the levels of spending as a % of GDP.
    Isn't spending as percentage of GDP higher now than in any year of the previous Labour government pre crash?
    I think there is a little bit of difference in regards to debt servicing costs...
    It's 0.5% less than the pre-crash peak. We went to ~46% in Brown's last year in office. As I said earlier, we're now spending ~4% on debt servicing, though it is coming down.
    So 10% of our spending is on debt servicing. What a disgrace.

    I am disappointed that Osbo didn't tackle the deficit properly earlier...
    He did the best he could given the circumstances, heavier cuts would have led to civil unrest. Brown is to blame for the deficit and PFI. Its all on his shoulders. Labour spent every last penny possible in the final months so that there really was "no money left"
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Civil unrest? Do me a flavour.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Mortimer said:

    Civil unrest? Do me a flavour.

    I think the late goal avoided that .... just ....
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Left it late but a win I suppose is a win for England
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    This assumes equal %gs turn out and vote. That is not usually the case.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    if brexit had farage in charge saying he would deport all the darkies if they won (like trump is dio
    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    that 3% is within the margin of error, so could be less. could just be ben carson and pastor brown
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    weejonnie said:

    England: Hart; Walker, Cahill, Smalling, Rose; Dier, Henderson; Lallana, Rooney, Sterling; Kane

    Sigh....Uncle Roy XI.

    It's not what you've got it's what you do with it.
    I always feel like Lallana is making up the numbers.
    A bit more than that today.
    I should criticise players more often...!
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Quite a few of my Asian and British-Filipino colleagues did. Some because they didn't want Muslims coming (!?!), and one Philipino Nurse turned British National specifically because she wanted the Spanish and Portuguese Nurses to jump through the same hoops as she had to.

    I cited these in my anecdata reports before Brexit. I think the Muslims and Afro-Carribean staff broke more for Remain, as more often the butt of xenophobia themselves.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,054

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Quite a few of my Asian and British-Filipino colleagues did. Some because they didn't want Muslims coming (!?!), and one Philipino Nurse turned British National specifically because she wanted the Spanish and Portuguese Nurses to jump through the same hoops as she had to.

    I cited these in my anecdata reports before Brexit. I think the Muslims and Afro-Carribean staff broke more for Remain, as more often the butt of xenophobia themselves.
    Probably. I know one a muslim couple in their late 70s, came over in the late 60s, who voted Leave due to the influx of Eastern Europeans, it takes all sorts.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
  • Options
    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    "You have nothing to lose" it worked for Leave.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited September 2016
    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    We need a new version of Godwin's law for use of the term "MSM/Mainstream Media". It's the sign of a paranoid inability to face facts.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    "You have nothing to lose" it worked for Leave.
    I mean he could double Romney's share and still get 10%...
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited September 2016
    John_M said:


    However, iirc, by the end of this parliament debt servicing will be our #4 budget line.

    Closing the deficit and attacking Labour's 'magic money tree' the most important thing of important things for Tories on here for about 6 years until the Referendum. Then suddenly we were told the economic damage from Brexit was worth it because "there are more important things than money"
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    "You have nothing to lose" it worked for Leave.
    I mean he could double Romney's share and still get 10%...
    He doesn't need much more than that. It isn't about winning a majority of minorities, it's about winning enough and for Trump, enough is quite a low figure.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,414

    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    When was the last time a majority of African Americans voted Republican? I'm guessing it was 1928.

    That being said, I expect Trump to have the lowest number of African American votes of any mainstream presidential candidate since the abolition of slavery, never mind the securing of the universal franchise in the 1960s.
  • Options

    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    There is something that might resonate with the thought that voting Democrat for generations has not substantially changed things. There might just be some traction in that for a small number - but it is hard to know
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    weejonnie said:

    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.

    I care not if the observers are left-wing, ring-wing or centre-forward observers. Credibility is the key.

    Throughout both 08 and 12 McCain and Romney advocates determined that they would pull in 10-20% of the black vote. It was 5%. Now despite all the reliable evidence to the contrary we even have some PBers who think black voters will rally to the Donald in greater numbers than in the past two elections.

    Trump will do very well to edge toward 3% of the AA vote. A higher level toward 5% would be a triumph for him over the plague, that would certainty merit applause even as he loses the election.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    Can't believe some people on here are seriously comparing Brexit to Trump. Ah well I just hope they don't bet on that basis.
  • Options
    619619 Posts: 1,784

    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/37

    The white population of North Carolina is 63.8% if Trump gets 60% of these he is still at only 38%.
    As for AA who are about a fifth of the voters in the state hahahahahhaha

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/17/the-republican-myth-of-the-untapped-white-voter.html

    As for ethnic minorities voting brexit hahahahahahaha......oh.
    Pre brexit polling had ethnic minority support split 66/33 in favour of Remain. Trump has 3% support amongst African Americans.
    Not in latest polling, some of which has over 10% backing Trump
    No credible observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.
    No credible left-wing MSM observer thinks Trump will rise above the 5% level that McCain and Romney achieved. Indeed Trump in larger sample polls is barely registering above 2% with the PPP poll indicating that black voters prefer public injury lawyers, bed bugs and the bubonic plague to the Donald.

    Corrected it for you.
    So, come on explain to me why African Americans will break the habit of a generation, nay, a lifetime, and vote for the modern day Republican Party led by Donald Trump?
    There is something that might resonate with the thought that voting Democrat for generations has not substantially changed things. There might just be some traction in that for a small number - but it is hard to know
    it may have worked if Trump hasn't publically been a massive bigot for the last 3 years
This discussion has been closed.