politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls might still be overstating Labour

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Sandpit said:

Mortimer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-37132249 >.>

Why is this filed in the Education section of the BBC News website?

As usual, middle class renters get very worked up about this. Making being a landlord more difficult would be great for them, reducing house prices and making it easier for them to buy. Reducing the number of properties available to rent would be worse for poorer tenants, tending to drive up their rents. But this is all about subsidising the middle classes.

The only long term solution to the housing shortage is to build far more properties (which in turn would reduce the attractiveness of being a landlord). Time to start using the third dimension much more.

Taxing second and further properties at 90% of rental value p/a would free up housing stock for those who need it...

Property gives people a stake in society; it also improves the character of neighbourhoods. Both of which are great things.

In this case, we need both short and long-term solutions.

Wouldn't that just lead to a massive shortage of available rental properties, so huge hikes in rent?

I don't agree much with @AlastairMeeks but he's completely right that the only way the property market gets sorted is by building more homes. That or massive emigration. Tinkering around the edges only exacerbates the problem.

A room tax would help.

Basically, you have an allowance for two reception rooms, one kitchen, one utility room, one toilet, one bath/shower room and one bedroom per resident occupant. Every extra room in the house is taxed at £500 per year for the first, £1000 per year for the next four per room, £2,000 per year for the next five per room and £5,000 per year per room for spare room 11 and over. All rooms in second or more houses are deemed to be additional rooms in main residence and taxed accordingly (if rented out then occupants count as additional residents in main home reducing tax by one room per tenant)

A room is deemed as a room when house bulit so knocking through walls dosent give you a reduction with exemption if one of the rooms knocked through is 36 sq feet or less.

Would apply to all including pensioners, diabled people get allowance of one extra room with total exemption if house has had to be structurally modified due to severe disability

This would cause a huge wave of downsizing and letting out of spare rooms to lodgers, making far more efficient use of the housing stock and solving the housing crisis.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

The 94% and 90% retention rates for Con and Lab quoted in the thread are misleading - they come only after applying the certainty to vote filter.

The more meaningful retention rates found by MORI were taken from all of those who say they voted in the general election, regardless of their current declared certainty to vote, are as follows (Mori Table 6): Con 84%, Lab 74%, LD 46%, UKIP 53%. For YouGov's most recent poll, the comparative retention rates were: Con 72%, Lab 60%, LD 47%, UKIP 58%.

Lab had higher retention rates than Con throughout the last parliament whereas the opposite is now the case. The LD figure is nothing exceptional for them - their centrist supporters are historically quite promiscuous and swap around a lot more than parties at either end of the spectrum.

A lot of 2015 Labour voters are still for now in the red camp but are biding their time while the leadership issue is still (perceived to be) in the balance. Corbyn's personal ratings even among current Labour voters are so low that, barring a big upset, more Labour voters will give up on the party in the event that he is seen to have secured his hold for the long term. The Con lead is going to go up, not down, after the Labour leadership is settled.

SeanT said:

nunu said:

IanB2 said:

SeanT said:

IanB2 said:

SeanT said:

John_M said:

SouthamObserver said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

That Larry Elliot article on the dog that didn't bark, Brexit Armageddon, is particularly interesting because he is unusually astute for a lefty, especially when it comes to Europe.

He was rightly skeptical of euro entry, for instance, unlike 98% of Guardian writers and editors. And the FT.

I still believe it's too soon to tell, and maybe impossible to tell, what Brexit will do. It's far too profound and complicated, and will trigger forces and changes which are inherently imponderable. As I've said before, it's like having a baby. It alters your life, for good or bad, in ways you would never have guessed.

Problem for REMAINERS is that they didn't want kids.

Like

Could not agree more. Now we're leaving let's make the most of the opportunity. And let's genuinely focus on the people who have been left behind by globalisation. Taking their Leave votes and the forgetting them again would be truly unforgiveable. If Leave does lead to a fundamental rethink I'll be very happy to have been on the losing side.

We were discussing this last night. Brexit does not address the issues and challenges of globalisation in any meaningful way, other than providing some controls over immigration.

We're also at risk of fighting the last war; we're already starting to see the onset of a new wave of automation that has the potential to push many more people outside the margins of employability.

I was also discussing this with a mate last night - he has pals in the augmented and virtual reality biz. He's seen how extraordinary it is. Along with drones, AI and driverless cars etc etc, we're facing another tech revolution.

Is the lumbering, bureaucratic EU best-placed to handle this, and respond? No. We are Better Off Out.

It is not about whether "the EU can respond" - but about why our being in the EU makes it more difficult for us to respond? You have to point to something we could do outside the EU that we can't do already.

Grow faster.

I haven't seen many assessments that aren't pointing to precisely the opposite.

Would u like a bet? I'll let Robert have my details etc or however a bet is done on here.
There will be no sharp slowdown in growth next quarter.

That's very brave. I'm a Brexiteer but I think there will probably be a modest recession.

nunu said:

SeanT said:

John_M said:

There were some hysterical forecasts of immediate Armageddon written by some in the Remain camp. I'm prepared to forgive and forget those, in the hope that others will also forgive the morons on my 'side', who think we just need to repeal the '72 act, stick two fingers up to Johnny Foreigner and sail off into the sunlit uplands in the HMS Leadsom.

Agreed.

This Treasury document makes embarrassing reading for REMAINERS now

https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/766897451513110529

Is this ur MP. Lol.

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

david_herdson said:

IanB2 said:

david_herdson said:

PClipp said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Good header DH. Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though. Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.

I really cant see an election before the constituency changes and after that they will want to complete brexit first so looks like 2020 to me.

We must not overlook the possibility, Mr Bedfordshire, that 20 to 30 Tory MPs will become disqualified for their despicable behaviour in the 2015 general election. Then Mrs May will lose her majority and this Conservative government will fall. Her hand will be forced.

But everything seems to have gone very quiet on this issue. Has anybody heard what is happening?

It's an overblown story quibbling about accounting technicalities? The public is not going to get het up about where central staff sleep.

And none of the other parties will press the issue given that they all know that the electoral expense rules are shot through with holes and none of their campaigns would stand up to detailed scrutiny. There is an unwritten understanding that only the most blatant transgressions get challenged. Plus the voters don't like a rerun for legal reasons (cf Winchester).

Best for all parties to let sleeping dogs lie on that one other than where the breaches are both blatent and result-changing. My guess would be that the public is much more concerned about breaches of law that involve the security of ballots cast e.g. vote-harvesting or intimidation.

Spoken like a true lying cheating Tory, is it any wonder they are reviled.

You mean like campaigning in local constituencies, then declaring the helicopter expense as 'National Expenditure', Nicola?

Next you will be trying to tell me you are Scottish

So you're only Scottish if you support the SNP?

Let he who is without sin.......

http://order-order.com/2016/05/23/snp-chopper-not-declared-properly/

Sandpit said:

alex. said:

Just as a matter of interest, has anyone worked out why GB were disqualified from the 400m relay yet? Do the IAAF not have to provide some sort of explanation?

Don't think so. All we know is that Team GB have appealed. Final is tonight so we should know soon enough, one way or the other.

kle4 said:

SquareRoot said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.

"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.

"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".

He forgot to mention that the Poms stuffed them 3-0 in the rugby ( down under as well.. )just before the Olympics..

He mentions it later in the piece. Wanted to be thorough no doubt.

As if losing the Ashes and going down in the rugby 3-0 to England wasn’t enough

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

CarlottaVance said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....

John_M said:

SouthamObserver said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

That Larry Elliot article on the dog that didn't bark, Brexit Armageddon, is particularly interesting because he is unusually astute for a lefty, especially when it comes to Europe.

He was rightly skeptical of euro entry, for instance, unlike 98% of Guardian writers and editors. And the FT.

I still believe it's too soon to tell, and maybe impossible to tell, what Brexit will do. It's far too profound and complicated, and will trigger forces and changes which are inherently imponderable. As I've said before, it's like having a baby. It alters your life, for good or bad, in ways you would never have guessed.

Problem for REMAINERS is that they didn't want kids.

Like most of the seismic changes we've lived through in our lifetimes, there will be winners and losers. I just can't get excited about it now. The difficulty and complexity is in executing the dismount.

Elliot's interesting in that part of his motivation was to shake things up. I can identify with that. To make the most of Brexit, the UK has to wake up and do some serious navel gazing - not just Labour, but all of us. If all we do is move 6" outside the EU and call it a day, it will be an opportunity lost.

Could not agree more. Now we're leaving let's make the most of the opportunity. And let's genuinely focus on the people who have been left behind by globalisation. Taking their Leave votes and the forgetting them again would be truly unforgiveable. If Leave does lead to a fundamental rethink I'll be very happy to have been on the losing side.

We were discussing this last night. Brexit does not address the issues and challenges of globalisation in any meaningful way, other than providing some controls over immigration.

We're also at risk of fighting the last war; we're already starting to see the onset of a new wave of automation that has the potential to push many more people outside the margins of employability.

david_herdson said:

IanB2 said:

runnymede said:

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

The reason buy to let has become so contentious is the fact that interest rates have cynically been kept low. Right now it looks like a licence to print money.

Not just that, but it's the *only* way to get a half decent return on an investment right now, without huge risk.

Plus the tax regime with mortgage interest being deductible - which was always a nonsense which even the Tories, slowly, are unwinding - and the benefit regime making unaffordable rents affordable via government subsidy.

Abolish housing benefit

Even if that is the long run answer (and not having any sort of benefit would be a drastic destination) the problem is the transitional pain. It's a bit like the bedroom tax - however much it might make sense for people under-occupying property to move to smaller housing, just taking away the money and waiting for things to take their course is way too crude and does more damage than benefit. How on earth you transition from the current situation is hard to say. I suspect the government is trying (or just hoping) the market trends gradually downwards so taking the pressure off the benefit bill.

Hardly anyone complained about the 'Bedroom Tax' when Labour introduced it and hardly anyone is complaining about it now. It was a political campaign to a political end. Capping Housing Benefit and gradually reducing that cap is a sensible and practical solution.

FrancisUrquhart said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).

None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.

nunu said:

CarlottaVance said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....

Why do think Leave campaigned on an "Australian style points system". We also have t.v series showing the Aussies to be tough cookies when it comes to border controls.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

david_herdson said:

IanB2 said:

runnymede said:

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

tlg86 said:

The reason buy to let has become so contentious is the fact that interest rates have cynically been kept low. Right now it looks like a licence to print money.

Not just that, but it's the *only* way to get a half decent return on an investment right now, without huge risk.

Plus the tax regime with mortgage interest being deductible - which was always a nonsense which even the Tories, slowly, are unwinding - and the benefit regime making unaffordable rents affordable via government subsidy.

Abolish housing benefit

Even if that is the long run answer (and not having any sort of benefit would be a drastic destination) the problem is the transitional pain. It's a bit like the bedroom tax - however much it might make sense for people under-occupying property to move to smaller housing, just taking away the money and waiting for things to take their course is way too crude and does more damage than benefit. How on earth you transition from the current situation is hard to say. I suspect the government is trying (or just hoping) the market trends gradually downwards so taking the pressure off the benefit bill.

Hardly anyone complained about the 'Bedroom Tax' when Labour introduced it and hardly anyone is complaining about it now. It was a political campaign to a political end. Capping Housing Benefit and gradually reducing that cap is a sensible and practical solution.

My main beef with the bedroom tax is that pensioners are exempted.

FrancisUrquhart said:

RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.

While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.

Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.

Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.

While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.

Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.

Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.

I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.

alex. said:

GOLD!

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).

None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.

Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau

Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).

None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.

Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau

Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)

He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada

Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.

While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.

Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.

Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.

I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.

I would personally be very surprised if we see significant numbers of Poles return to Poland. Generally Poles are doing very well in the UK and even in the downturn it was shown few became unemployed and returned home.

I see Poles going home all the time; our local Pret sees people return regularly. Builders won't be here if there's less building work. In the tech space, Google just moved their Android TV development from London to Poland.

FrancisUrquhart said:

It is certainly an interesting "pitch"...not sure how it would go down on the Apprentice as a business pitch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37135836

One interesting point that I saw somebody far more intelligent and informed bring up on a podcast, that unemployment among African Americans is huge and has been for generation after generation. But among immigrant groups of Latinos, Asians, etc, there is a clear pattern of 1st generation poor immigrants improving life chances for their offspring and by the time they get to 3/4th generation a significant proportion have made giant leaps up the ladder.

The question is why...it is all racialism? Even though black, brown and yellow immigrants on show progression. Is it education? I don't know, but never seen any research that really looks into this.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).

None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.

Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau

Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)

He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada

Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.

Could well be. I will never forget Obama's reelection and coming into the office, and a colleague commenting that it was good, and having no answer when I asked 'Why's that?'

Now, I am certain I would vote Democrat before Republican, and I don't known enough about Obama's successes or failures to properly assess him, but that it was an automatic assumption it must be good for him to win struck me.

Indeed but Trudeau's present poll rating is more Blair 1998 than Obama 2009. The latest 2 polls have it Liberals 50% Tories 31% and Liberals 45.6% Tories 28.5%. Given Trudeau has also committed to introduce electoral reform by 2020 and scrap FPTP (in which he is backed by the NDP) it is possible the next Canadian election could be under PR
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Canadian_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election

kle4 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.

Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.

CarlottaVance said:

nunu said:

CarlottaVance said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....

Why do think Leave campaigned on an "Australian style points system". We also have t.v series showing the Aussies to be tough cookies when it comes to border controls.

We already have an 'Australian style points system' for non-EU nationals - see the huge fuss kicked up in Scotland by the student family who couldn't meet the criteria.....

Other interesting stuff in that YouGov poll - despite the constant bleating of Fraser Nelson & Nicola Sturgeon (curious bed-fellows - ed.) the 'guarantee EU residents absolute rights irrespective of what happens to Brits in the EU' position is not the most popular:

Guarantee EU residents right to remain: 38
Guarantee EU residents right to remain
provided Brits in EU get same: 49
Chuck'em out: 4

The position in Scotland is virtually the same as in rUK: (41 / 49 / 3)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5u0h1qgsi/BrexitScenarios_160818.pdf

FrancisUrquhart said:

It is certainly an interesting "pitch"...not sure how it would go down on the Apprentice as a business pitch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37135836

One interesting point that I saw somebody far more intelligent and informed bring up on a podcast, that unemployment among African Americans is huge and has been for generation after generation. But among immigrant groups of Latinos, Asians, etc, there is a clear pattern of 1st generation poor immigrants improving life chances for their offspring and by the time they get to 3/4th generation a significant proportion have made giant leaps up the ladder.

The question is why...it is all racialism? Even though black, brown and yellow immigrants on show progression. Is it education? I don't know, but never seen any research that really looks into this.

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

A few days ago I wrote that I thought that net immigration to the UK would turn negative at some point in the next decade. A concept that was considered beyond the realms of possibility. (Largely because most posters on here suffer from recency bias.)

Let me explain why net immigration is likely to turn negative:

[...]

4. A lot of places which have traditionally been sources for EU immigration to the UK are growing quickly. On a PPP basis, Poland has gone from $18,000 to $25,000 GDP per capita in the last decade for example. Of course, there are still very poor places but even they are showing pretty rapid growth (Romania has gone from $15,000 to $20,000 in that period; Bulgaria $13,000 to $17,000.) The 'speed' of migration movements depends on the difference in wealth and the number of people willing to travel. The difference in wealth has - even absent new restrictions on EU nationals working in the UK - narrowed sharply.

Item 4 is precisely what the EU technocrats who dreamt up the single market hoped and believed would happen. Personally, I remain to be convinced as to how quickly this would affect migration rates, but for sake of argument let's assume these countries continue to catch up: it would be deeply ironic if we left the EU and single market just as freedom of movement becomes far less relevant.

MonikerDiCanio said:

alex. said:

PlatoSaid said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.

36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/

Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.

I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).

None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.

Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau

Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)

He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada

Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.

Trump donated a dozen trucks full of basic household stuff to residents of a Louisiana town hit by floods. Watched a bit of CNN trying to cover the delighted response to it.

Obama meanwhile is playing golf.

It's almost like one of them is trying to win an election! Wonder how he funded it?

It was necessary for you to edit ailing Hillary out. She's hopeless.

PlatoSaid said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

kle4 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.

Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.

I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.

I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.

Amazing.

WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.

While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.

Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.

Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.

I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.

I would personally be very surprised if we see significant numbers of Poles return to Poland. Generally Poles are doing very well in the UK and even in the downturn it was shown few became unemployed and returned home.

I see Poles going home all the time; our local Pret sees people return regularly. Builders won't be here if there's less building work. In the tech space, Google just moved their Android TV development from London to Poland.

PlatoSaid said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

kle4 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.

Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.

I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.

I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.

Amazing.

WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.