Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
That Larry Elliot article on the dog that didn't bark, Brexit Armageddon, is particularly interesting because he is unusually astute for a lefty, especially when it comes to Europe.
He was rightly skeptical of euro entry, for instance, unlike 98% of Guardian writers and editors. And the FT.
I still believe it's too soon to tell, and maybe impossible to tell, what Brexit will do. It's far too profound and complicated, and will trigger forces and changes which are inherently imponderable. As I've said before, it's like having a baby. It alters your life, for good or bad, in ways you would never have guessed.
Problem for REMAINERS is that they didn't want kids.
Like
Could not agree more. Now we're leaving let's make the most of the opportunity. And let's genuinely focus on the people who have been left behind by globalisation. Taking their Leave votes and the forgetting them again would be truly unforgiveable. If Leave does lead to a fundamental rethink I'll be very happy to have been on the losing side.
We were discussing this last night. Brexit does not address the issues and challenges of globalisation in any meaningful way, other than providing some controls over immigration.
We're also at risk of fighting the last war; we're already starting to see the onset of a new wave of automation that has the potential to push many more people outside the margins of employability.
I was also discussing this with a mate last night - he has pals in the augmented and virtual reality biz. He's seen how extraordinary it is. Along with drones, AI and driverless cars etc etc, we're facing another tech revolution.
Is the lumbering, bureaucratic EU best-placed to handle this, and respond? No. We are Better Off Out.
It is not about whether "the EU can respond" - but about why our being in the EU makes it more difficult for us to respond? You have to point to something we could do outside the EU that we can't do already.
Grow faster.
I haven't seen many assessments that aren't pointing to precisely the opposite.
Would u like a bet? I'll let Robert have my details etc or however a bet is done on here. There will be no sharp slowdown in growth next quarter.
Why is this filed in the Education section of the BBC News website?
As usual, middle class renters get very worked up about this. Making being a landlord more difficult would be great for them, reducing house prices and making it easier for them to buy. Reducing the number of properties available to rent would be worse for poorer tenants, tending to drive up their rents. But this is all about subsidising the middle classes.
The only long term solution to the housing shortage is to build far more properties (which in turn would reduce the attractiveness of being a landlord). Time to start using the third dimension much more.
Taxing second and further properties at 90% of rental value p/a would free up housing stock for those who need it...
Property gives people a stake in society; it also improves the character of neighbourhoods. Both of which are great things.
In this case, we need both short and long-term solutions.
Wouldn't that just lead to a massive shortage of available rental properties, so huge hikes in rent?
I don't agree much with @AlastairMeeks but he's completely right that the only way the property market gets sorted is by building more homes. That or massive emigration. Tinkering around the edges only exacerbates the problem.
A room tax would help.
Basically, you have an allowance for two reception rooms, one kitchen, one utility room, one toilet, one bath/shower room and one bedroom per resident occupant. Every extra room in the house is taxed at £500 per year for the first, £1000 per year for the next four per room, £2,000 per year for the next five per room and £5,000 per year per room for spare room 11 and over. All rooms in second or more houses are deemed to be additional rooms in main residence and taxed accordingly (if rented out then occupants count as additional residents in main home reducing tax by one room per tenant)
A room is deemed as a room when house bulit so knocking through walls dosent give you a reduction with exemption if one of the rooms knocked through is 36 sq feet or less.
Would apply to all including pensioners, diabled people get allowance of one extra room with total exemption if house has had to be structurally modified due to severe disability
This would cause a huge wave of downsizing and letting out of spare rooms to lodgers, making far more efficient use of the housing stock and solving the housing crisis.
That'd be a rotten solution both practically and politically. It'd mean that a £2m flat in Chelsea would be taxed at a lower rate than a 3-bed semi worth £80k in Barnsley.
Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
As the World's smallest violin plays in the background...
There were some hysterical forecasts of immediate Armageddon written by some in the Remain camp. I'm prepared to forgive and forget those, in the hope that others will also forgive the morons on my 'side', who think we just need to repeal the '72 act, stick two fingers up to Johnny Foreigner and sail off into the sunlit uplands in the HMS Leadsom.
Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
He forgot to mention that the Poms stuffed them 3-0 in the rugby ( down under as well.. )just before the Olympics..
Seriously, everyone should go and buy a lottery ticket or two tonight. Don't think of the crap odds gambling that it is, think of it as a personal investment in the success of Team GB
Edit: unless you've got a few million to spare, in which case there's some great publicity to be had in bailing out the Paralympics - Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Richard Branson, are you listening?
Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
I really shouldn’t, but here goes anyhow – hearty chuckle…
Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
Brilliantly tragic.
Just watched the Lutalo intv - awwwwwwwwwwwww, he's so gutted.
What's going on with the relay DQs? The judges are being very inconsistent. Though I confess to finding the USA 4x100m result rather karmic given it was apparently Gatlin at fault. He shouldn't even be at the Olympics.
The 94% and 90% retention rates for Con and Lab quoted in the thread are misleading - they come only after applying the certainty to vote filter.
The more meaningful retention rates found by MORI were taken from all of those who say they voted in the general election, regardless of their current declared certainty to vote, are as follows (Mori Table 6): Con 84%, Lab 74%, LD 46%, UKIP 53%. For YouGov's most recent poll, the comparative retention rates were: Con 72%, Lab 60%, LD 47%, UKIP 58%.
Lab had higher retention rates than Con throughout the last parliament whereas the opposite is now the case. The LD figure is nothing exceptional for them - their centrist supporters are historically quite promiscuous and swap around a lot more than parties at either end of the spectrum.
A lot of 2015 Labour voters are still for now in the red camp but are biding their time while the leadership issue is still (perceived to be) in the balance. Corbyn's personal ratings even among current Labour voters are so low that, barring a big upset, more Labour voters will give up on the party in the event that he is seen to have secured his hold for the long term. The Con lead is going to go up, not down, after the Labour leadership is settled.
You're right about the 90/94% figures, although I did state in the piece that they related to "... the sample that generates the headline figure". But whether you use the headline figures or the overall ones, the Conservatives have a better retention rate but neither is seeing any significant defection to other parties.
There were some hysterical forecasts of immediate Armageddon written by some in the Remain camp. I'm prepared to forgive and forget those, in the hope that others will also forgive the morons on my 'side', who think we just need to repeal the '72 act, stick two fingers up to Johnny Foreigner and sail off into the sunlit uplands in the HMS Leadsom.
Agreed.
This Treasury document makes embarrassing reading for REMAINERS now
I suspect that the shock (if any) will be when Mrs Masy actually signs the Article 50 letter.
I must say I didn’t expect Armageddon either. I was rather amused the other day, as I’ve mentiopned before, by the Leaver friend who is very disappointed with the lack of obvious Brexit activity to date.
That Larry Elliot article on the dog that didn't bark, Brexit Armageddon, is particularly interesting because he is unusually astute for a lefty, especially when it comes to Europe.
He was rightly skeptical of euro entry, for instance, unlike 98% of Guardian writers and editors. And the FT.
I still believe it's too soon to tell, and maybe impossible to tell, what Brexit will do. It's far too profound and complicated, and will trigger forces and changes which are inherently imponderable. As I've said before, it's like having a baby. It alters your life, for good or bad, in ways you would never have guessed.
Problem for REMAINERS is that they didn't want kids.
Like
Could not agree more. Now we're leaving let's make the most of the opportunity. And let's genuinely focus on the people who have been left behind by globalisation. Taking their Leave votes and the forgetting them again would be truly unforgiveable. If Leave does lead to a fundamental rethink I'll be very happy to have been on the losing side.
We were discussing this last night. Brexit does not address the issues and challenges of globalisation in any meaningful way, other than providing some controls over immigration.
We're also at risk of fighting the last war; we're already starting to see the onset of a new wave of automation that has the potential to push many more people outside the margins of employability.
I was also discussing this with a mate last night - he has pals in the augmented and virtual reality biz. He's seen how extraordinary it is. Along with drones, AI and driverless cars etc etc, we're facing another tech revolution.
Is the lumbering, bureaucratic EU best-placed to handle this, and respond? No. We are Better Off Out.
It is not about whether "the EU can respond" - but about why our being in the EU makes it more difficult for us to respond? You have to point to something we could do outside the EU that we can't do already.
Grow faster.
I haven't seen many assessments that aren't pointing to precisely the opposite.
Would u like a bet? I'll let Robert have my details etc or however a bet is done on here. There will be no sharp slowdown in growth next quarter.
That's very brave. I'm a Brexiteer but I think there will probably be a modest recession.
If there's no recession wil u believe an economist ever again? And if even a resident of Primrose hill doesn't then what about areas where leave was 70%!
Just as a matter of interest, has anyone worked out why GB were disqualified from the 400m relay yet? Do the IAAF not have to provide some sort of explanation?
Just as a matter of interest, has anyone worked out why GB were disqualified from the 400m relay yet? Do the IAAF not have to provide some sort of explanation?
There were some hysterical forecasts of immediate Armageddon written by some in the Remain camp. I'm prepared to forgive and forget those, in the hope that others will also forgive the morons on my 'side', who think we just need to repeal the '72 act, stick two fingers up to Johnny Foreigner and sail off into the sunlit uplands in the HMS Leadsom.
Agreed.
This Treasury document makes embarrassing reading for REMAINERS now
There were some hysterical forecasts of immediate Armageddon written by some in the Remain camp. I'm prepared to forgive and forget those, in the hope that others will also forgive the morons on my 'side', who think we just need to repeal the '72 act, stick two fingers up to Johnny Foreigner and sail off into the sunlit uplands in the HMS Leadsom.
Agreed.
This Treasury document makes embarrassing reading for REMAINERS now
There were some hysterical forecasts of immediate Armageddon written by some in the Remain camp. I'm prepared to forgive and forget those, in the hope that others will also forgive the morons on my 'side', who think we just need to repeal the '72 act, stick two fingers up to Johnny Foreigner and sail off into the sunlit uplands in the HMS Leadsom.
Agreed.
This Treasury document makes embarrassing reading for REMAINERS now
Good header DH. Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though. Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.
I really cant see an election before the constituency changes and after that they will want to complete brexit first so looks like 2020 to me.
We must not overlook the possibility, Mr Bedfordshire, that 20 to 30 Tory MPs will become disqualified for their despicable behaviour in the 2015 general election. Then Mrs May will lose her majority and this Conservative government will fall. Her hand will be forced.
But everything seems to have gone very quiet on this issue. Has anybody heard what is happening?
It's an overblown story quibbling about accounting technicalities? The public is not going to get het up about where central staff sleep.
And none of the other parties will press the issue given that they all know that the electoral expense rules are shot through with holes and none of their campaigns would stand up to detailed scrutiny. There is an unwritten understanding that only the most blatant transgressions get challenged. Plus the voters don't like a rerun for legal reasons (cf Winchester).
Best for all parties to let sleeping dogs lie on that one other than where the breaches are both blatent and result-changing. My guess would be that the public is much more concerned about breaches of law that involve the security of ballots cast e.g. vote-harvesting or intimidation.
Spoken like a true lying cheating Tory, is it any wonder they are reviled.
You mean like campaigning in local constituencies, then declaring the helicopter expense as 'National Expenditure', Nicola?
Next you will be trying to tell me you are Scottish
You really are not right in the head , where did you dig that rubbish up from given SNP was never mentioned. , next you will be parrotting that fruitcake Tory MSP, "But don't you dare call the SNP's Scotland a one party state. Don't you dare." They make the labour donkeys look like thoroughbreds.
Just as a matter of interest, has anyone worked out why GB were disqualified from the 400m relay yet? Do the IAAF not have to provide some sort of explanation?
Don't think so. All we know is that Team GB have appealed. Final is tonight so we should know soon enough, one way or the other.
Just as a matter of interest, has anyone worked out why GB were disqualified from the 400m relay yet? Do the IAAF not have to provide some sort of explanation?
Don't think so. All we know is that Team GB have appealed. Final is tonight so we should know soon enough, one way or the other.
The appeal has been rejected, but still only seems to be speculation about what offence they actually committed.
Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
He forgot to mention that the Poms stuffed them 3-0 in the rugby ( down under as well.. )just before the Olympics..
He mentions it later in the piece. Wanted to be thorough no doubt.
As if losing the Ashes and going down in the rugby 3-0 to England wasn’t enough
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Just as a matter of interest, has anyone worked out why GB were disqualified from the 400m relay yet? Do the IAAF not have to provide some sort of explanation?
Don't think so. All we know is that Team GB have appealed. Final is tonight so we should know soon enough, one way or the other.
The appeal has been rejected, but still only seems to be speculation about what offence they actually committed.
The BBC guys were watching about 20 replays last night trying to work out what happened, they (inc Michael Johnson) couldn't see anything either.
A conspiracy theorist might say they just wanted Brazil in the final!
Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
He forgot to mention that the Poms stuffed them 3-0 in the rugby ( down under as well.. )just before the Olympics..
He mentions it later in the piece. Wanted to be thorough no doubt.
As if losing the Ashes and going down in the rugby 3-0 to England wasn’t enough
They have a great opportunity to lose the Ashes at home next year too!
Just as a matter of interest, has anyone worked out why GB were disqualified from the 400m relay yet? Do the IAAF not have to provide some sort of explanation?
Don't think so. All we know is that Team GB have appealed. Final is tonight so we should know soon enough, one way or the other.
The appeal has been rejected, but still only seems to be speculation about what offence they actually committed.
The BBC guys were watching about 20 replays last night trying to work out what happened, they (inc Michael Johnson) couldn't see anything either.
A conspiracy theorist might say they just wanted Brazil in the final!
Perhaps due to cost cutting, the boxing judges have been moonlighting at the athletics track.
Given the reports of the paras, it sounded like it could be along the likes of village cricket, where Bob's brother umpires both ends having once played cricket when he was 13.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
Maybe if they hadn't dropped it as their anthem they'd be feeling more included now?
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I think they explained it. But there's middle-option bias.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....
One interesting point that I saw somebody far more intelligent and informed bring up on a podcast, that unemployment among African Americans is huge and has been for generation after generation. But among immigrant groups of Latinos, Asians, etc, there is a clear pattern of 1st generation poor immigrants improving life chances for their offspring and by the time they get to 3/4th generation a significant proportion have made giant leaps up the ladder.
The question is why...it is all racialism? Even though black, brown and yellow immigrants on show progression. Is it education? I don't know, but never seen any research that really looks into this.
Just as a matter of interest, has anyone worked out why GB were disqualified from the 400m relay yet? Do the IAAF not have to provide some sort of explanation?
Don't think so. All we know is that Team GB have appealed. Final is tonight so we should know soon enough, one way or the other.
The appeal has been rejected, but still only seems to be speculation about what offence they actually committed.
The BBC guys were watching about 20 replays last night trying to work out what happened, they (inc Michael Johnson) couldn't see anything either.
A conspiracy theorist might say they just wanted Brazil in the final!
They must have video evidence of it, you can't DQ someone just because one judge says so. As long as we get shown whoever it was stepping over a line, then it will be acceptable, if frustrating. Since they caught a deliberately mismeasured long jump I think have to be backed up by video footage (obviously, otherwise you are, once more, wide open to corruption).
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....
Why do think Leave campaigned on an "Australian style points system". We also have t.v series showing the Aussies to be tough cookies when it comes to border controls.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
The second paragraph is actually more significant, a majority of voters are willing to accept regulations relating to the single market for free trade and EU citizens having the right to live and work here but they do not want to pay any financial contribution to the EU.
Interestingly, in terms of a hard Brexit, while voters as a whole oppose it by 44% to 32%, UKIP voters back it by 68% to 16%. Tory voters also only very narrowly oppose it by 42% to 39%. Labour voters oppose it by 54% to 24% and LDs by 58% to 19%. 67% of UKIP voters also oppose allowing EU citizens to work and live here even for a trade deal, 41% of Tories also oppose free movement under any circumstances, 19% of Labour voters and 22% of LDs do too
That suggests UKIP will still be able to get a fair level of support if BREXIT falls short of hard BREXIT, as is most likely regardless of what model is chosen and could target the more than a third of Tory voters who back hard Brexit and almost a quarter of Labour voters who back hard BREXIT at the next general election https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5u0h1qgsi/BrexitScenarios_160818.pdf (p4-5)
That Larry Elliot article on the dog that didn't bark, Brexit Armageddon, is particularly interesting because he is unusually astute for a lefty, especially when it comes to Europe.
He was rightly skeptical of euro entry, for instance, unlike 98% of Guardian writers and editors. And the FT.
I still believe it's too soon to tell, and maybe impossible to tell, what Brexit will do. It's far too profound and complicated, and will trigger forces and changes which are inherently imponderable. As I've said before, it's like having a baby. It alters your life, for good or bad, in ways you would never have guessed.
Problem for REMAINERS is that they didn't want kids.
Like most of the seismic changes we've lived through in our lifetimes, there will be winners and losers. I just can't get excited about it now. The difficulty and complexity is in executing the dismount.
Elliot's interesting in that part of his motivation was to shake things up. I can identify with that. To make the most of Brexit, the UK has to wake up and do some serious navel gazing - not just Labour, but all of us. If all we do is move 6" outside the EU and call it a day, it will be an opportunity lost.
Could not agree more. Now we're leaving let's make the most of the opportunity. And let's genuinely focus on the people who have been left behind by globalisation. Taking their Leave votes and the forgetting them again would be truly unforgiveable. If Leave does lead to a fundamental rethink I'll be very happy to have been on the losing side.
We were discussing this last night. Brexit does not address the issues and challenges of globalisation in any meaningful way, other than providing some controls over immigration.
We're also at risk of fighting the last war; we're already starting to see the onset of a new wave of automation that has the potential to push many more people outside the margins of employability.
Whatever else globalistion will mean in the future it will mean a need to react fast and flexibly, tools that are not at our disposal in the EU.
Malcolm Gladwell also recently said that he was no longer in favour of positive discrimination, but he had looked at the data and it showed those being positively discriminated into top universities were not doing as well as those that went to traditional "black" colleges. Seems again, to ask the question why.
The reason buy to let has become so contentious is the fact that interest rates have cynically been kept low. Right now it looks like a licence to print money.
Not just that, but it's the *only* way to get a half decent return on an investment right now, without huge risk.
Plus the tax regime with mortgage interest being deductible - which was always a nonsense which even the Tories, slowly, are unwinding - and the benefit regime making unaffordable rents affordable via government subsidy.
Abolish housing benefit
Even if that is the long run answer (and not having any sort of benefit would be a drastic destination) the problem is the transitional pain. It's a bit like the bedroom tax - however much it might make sense for people under-occupying property to move to smaller housing, just taking away the money and waiting for things to take their course is way too crude and does more damage than benefit. How on earth you transition from the current situation is hard to say. I suspect the government is trying (or just hoping) the market trends gradually downwards so taking the pressure off the benefit bill.
Hardly anyone complained about the 'Bedroom Tax' when Labour introduced it and hardly anyone is complaining about it now. It was a political campaign to a political end. Capping Housing Benefit and gradually reducing that cap is a sensible and practical solution.
My main beef with the bedroom tax is that pensioners are exempted.
A few days ago I wrote that I thought that net immigration to the UK would turn negative at some point in the next decade. A concept that was considered beyond the realms of possibility. (Largely because most posters on here suffer from recency bias.)
Let me explain why net immigration is likely to turn negative:
1. A large portion of EU migrants were never planning to stay long-term. A large portion of the single, young immigrants came here treating the UK as a working holiday (just as Australians and New Zealanders used to.) Living in a cramped flat share in Camberwell is fun when you're 22, less so when you're 26. As these people look to settle down, they'll return to their home countries, where their parents are, and where property is cheap.
2. The weakness of the pound makes the UK less attractive. I know a couple of Polish builders who have families home, come here on Megabus, work for a month, and send their earnings home. They've all just taken a big pay cut because of the devaluation of the pound. If you could send home EUR1,000/month a year ago, but can only send EUR800 back now, that makes the UK a lot less attractive destination relative to - say - Germany.
3. We will almost certainly see some firms move staff back to Europe. Getting a German member of staff to work in the Bristol office used to be no harder than getting him an NI number. It's highly likely that will change in the future. I think it's also inevitable that large financial services firms will reduce the size of their London operation. I'm not talking about closing down, or anything like that, but Goldman Sachs could easily go from having 95% of their European staff in London to having 60%.
4. A lot of places which have traditionally been sources for EU immigration to the UK are growing quickly. On a PPP basis, Poland has gone from $18,000 to $25,000 GDP per capita in the last decade for example. Of course, there are still very poor places but even they are showing pretty rapid growth (Romania has gone from $15,000 to $20,000 in that period; Bulgaria $13,000 to $17,000.) The 'speed' of migration movements depends on the difference in wealth and the number of people willing to travel. The difference in wealth has - even absent new restrictions on EU nationals working in the UK - narrowed sharply.
5. The PIIGS recovery means people are returning home. This is most obvious in Spain where, after seven years of a declining workforce (as measured by the INE), it is now growing rapidly again. The number of employed people in Spain has grown by almost two million people from the lows of 2013, and the graduate unemployment rate in Spain has fallen from 18% to 7%.
6. We will likely have an economic slowdown in the next few years. Forecasts for economic growth in the UK next year (0.1-0.4%) are far below Eurozone levels (1.6-1.8%), and I think both numbers are probably roughly right. A slower economy, means fewer jobs, means fewer immigrants.
7. I expect much greater restrictions on non-EU immigration related to family members. This accounts for a very large portion of the 180,000 non-EU immigrants who come in every year. (And who - unlike EU ones - all stay.)
8. Brits leaving the UK will likely return to long-term levels of c. 70,000/year.
Put those together, and I would expect negative EU flows of 100-150,000 year at peak; 70,000 Brits (net) moving overseas; and a reduction of non-EU to perhaps 100,000.
That Larry Elliot article on the dog that didn't bark, Brexit Armageddon, is particularly interesting because he is unusually astute for a lefty, especially when it comes to Europe.
He was rightly skeptical of euro entry, for instance, unlike 98% of Guardian writers and editors. And the FT.
I still believe it's too soon to tell, and maybe impossible to tell, what Brexit will do. It's far too profound and complicated, and will trigger forces and changes which are inherently imponderable. As I've said before, it's like having a baby. It alters your life, for good or bad, in ways you would never have guessed.
Problem for REMAINERS is that they didn't want kids.
Like
Could not agree more. Now we're leaving let's make the most of the opportunity. And let's genuinely focus on the people who have been left behind by globalisation. Taking their Leave votes and the forgetting them again would be truly unforgiveable. If Leave does lead to a fundamental rethink I'll be very happy to have been on the losing side.
We were discussing this last night. Brexit does not address the issues and challenges of globalisation in any meaningful way, other than providing some controls over immigration.
We're also at risk of fighting the last war; we're already starting to see the onset of a new wave of automation that has the potential to push many more people outside the margins of employability.
I was also discussing this with a mate last night - he has pals in the augmented and virtual reality biz. He's seen how extraordinary it is. Along with drones, AI and driverless cars etc etc, we're facing another tech revolution.
Is the lumbering, bureaucratic EU best-placed to handle this, and respond? No. We are Better Off Out.
It is not about whether "the EU can respond" - but about why our being in the EU makes it more difficult for us to respond? You have to point to something we could do outside the EU that we can't do already.
Grow faster.
I haven't seen many assessments that aren't pointing to precisely the opposite.
The EU has been one of the slowest growing economic "blocs" for decades. Half of it is in Depression, making Japan or Brazil look good. There is every reason to hope that, after some initial pain, we will grow faster outside.
And besides, it is morally right to LEAVE. The EU is an anti-democratic day-dream gone sour.
Imperialism with an inferiority complex as Dennis Healey put it.
He makes some great points on funding. They should all get medals presented at next Olympics in special cheated athlete ceremony to shame the druggies.
There were some hysterical forecasts of immediate Armageddon written by some in the Remain camp. I'm prepared to forgive and forget those, in the hope that others will also forgive the morons on my 'side', who think we just need to repeal the '72 act, stick two fingers up to Johnny Foreigner and sail off into the sunlit uplands in the HMS Leadsom.
Agreed.
This Treasury document makes embarrassing reading for REMAINERS now
I suspect that the shock (if any) will be when Mrs Masy actually signs the Article 50 letter.
I must say I didn’t expect Armageddon either. I was rather amused the other day, as I’ve mentiopned before, by the Leaver friend who is very disappointed with the lack of obvious Brexit activity to date.
Blame Cameron for not making contingency plans.
Thanks to him the work has to be started now, which means we need six to nine months to formulate a strategy and discuss with EU and major players in r of EU that has a realistic chance of being agreed once formal negotiations start after A50.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
Mike Coleman, writer for the Brisbane-based Courier Mail says, "the Poms smashed us in the cycling, they smashed us in the rowing and they smashed us in the hockey.
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
Maybe if they hadn't dropped it as their anthem they'd be feeling more included now?
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....
Why do think Leave campaigned on an "Australian style points system". We also have t.v series showing the Aussies to be tough cookies when it comes to border controls.
We already have an 'Australian style points system' for non-EU nationals - see the huge fuss kicked up in Scotland by the student family who couldn't meet the criteria.....
Other interesting stuff in that YouGov poll - despite the constant bleating of Fraser Nelson & Nicola Sturgeon (curious bed-fellows - ed.) the 'guarantee EU residents absolute rights irrespective of what happens to Brits in the EU' position is not the most popular:
Guarantee EU residents right to remain: 38 Guarantee EU residents right to remain provided Brits in EU get same: 49 Chuck'em out: 4
The position in Scotland is virtually the same as in rUK: (41 / 49 / 3)
Would u like a bet? I'll let Robert have my details etc or however a bet is done on here. There will be no sharp slowdown in growth next quarter.
Q3 will probably show growth come down to 0.2-0.3% from 0.7%. Tourism and exports will be a positive, as will the fact that less money has gone overseas thanks to fewer foreign holidays.
However, the recovery in the oil price will harm us as we're big importers of oil and gas. Construction activity is slowing - and will probably be a big drag in Q4 and Q1.
I would expect 1Q/2Q next year to be the weakest periods, and then we'll see a recovery in the second half of next year. However, I would expect declining construction spending to hold growth back throughout 2017 and 2018.
The biggest risk to the UK economy is that we don't have a rapid resolution to the question of what Britain's relationship with the EU will look like. Firms looking to make investment decisions in Europe will hold off committing capital to the UK until they know there will likely be a tariff free arrangement. We recently lost the top spot for (large country) FDI in Europe to Spain. I can't see us getting it back until we know what the relationship we have with the EU will be.
The reason buy to let has become so contentious is the fact that interest rates have cynically been kept low. Right now it looks like a licence to print money.
Not just that, but it's the *only* way to get a half decent return on an investment right now, without huge risk.
Plus the tax regime with mortgage interest being deductible - which was always a nonsense which even the Tories, slowly, are unwinding - and the benefit regime making unaffordable rents affordable via government subsidy.
Abolish housing benefit
Even if that is the long run answer (and not having any sort of benefit would be a drastic destination) the problem is the transitional pain. It's a bit like the bedroom tax - however much it might make sense for people under-occupying property to move to smaller housing, just taking away the money and waiting for things to take their course is way too crude and does more damage than benefit. How on earth you transition from the current situation is hard to say. I suspect the government is trying (or just hoping) the market trends gradually downwards so taking the pressure off the benefit bill.
Hardly anyone complained about the 'Bedroom Tax' when Labour introduced it and hardly anyone is complaining about it now. It was a political campaign to a political end. Capping Housing Benefit and gradually reducing that cap is a sensible and practical solution.
My main beef with the bedroom tax is that pensioners are exempted.
There are all sorts of anomalies with it and I'd agree with you on that one. I can understand and support a transitional period if a family has become smaller, particularly because of death, but that period ought to be finite. The overall principle is still sound though.
That Larry Elliot article on the dog that didn't bark, Brexit Armageddon, is particularly interesting because he is unusually astute for a lefty, especially when it comes to Europe.
He was rightly skeptical of euro entry, for instance, unlike 98% of Guardian writers and editors. And the FT.
I still believe it's too soon to tell, and maybe impossible to tell, what Brexit will do. It's far too profound and complicated, and will trigger forces and changes which are inherently imponderable. As I've said before, it's like having a baby. It alters your life, for good or bad, in ways you would never have guessed.
Problem for REMAINERS is that they didn't want kids.
Like most of the seismic changes we've lived through in our lifetimes, there will be winners and losers. I just can't get excited about it now. The difficulty and complexity is in executing the dismount.
Elliot's interesting in that part of his motivation was to shake things up. I can identify with that. To make the most of Brexit, the UK has to wake up and do some serious navel gazing - not just Labour, but all of us. If all we do is move 6" outside the EU and call it a day, it will be an opportunity lost.
Could not agree more. Now we're leaving let's make the most of the opportunity. And let's genuinely focus on the people who have been left behind by globalisation. Taking their Leave votes and the forgetting them again would be truly unforgiveable. If Leave does lead to a fundamental rethink I'll be very happy to have been on the losing side.
We were discussing this last night. Brexit does not address the issues and challenges of globalisation in any meaningful way, other than providing some controls over immigration.
We're also at risk of fighting the last war; we're already starting to see the onset of a new wave of automation that has the potential to push many more people outside the margins of employability.
So in 20 years we may well have a Luddite Anti Robot Party as people start to lose their jobs to robots, 'switch off their power supply' will replace 'send 'em back' as the new populist battle cry!
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.
A few days ago I wrote that I thought that net immigration to the UK would turn negative at some point in the next decade. A concept that was considered beyond the realms of possibility. (Largely because most posters on here suffer from recency bias.)
Let me explain why net immigration is likely to turn negative:
1. A large portion of EU migrants were never planning to stay long-term. A large portion of the single, young immigrants came here treating the UK as a working holiday (just as Australians and New Zealanders used to.) Living in a cramped flat share in Camberwell is fun when you're 22, less so when you're 26. As these people look to settle down, they'll return to their home countries, where their parents are, and where property is cheap.
2. The weakness of the pound makes the UK less attractive. I know a couple of Polish builders who have families home, come here on Megabus, work for a month, and send their earnings home. They've all just taken a big pay cut because of the devaluation of the pound. If you could send home EUR1,000/month a year ago, but can only send EUR800 back now, that makes the UK a lot less attractive destination relative to - say - Germany.
3. We will almost certainly see some firms move staff back to Europe. Getting a German member of staff to work in the Bristol office used to be no harder than getting him an NI number. It's highly likely that will change in the future. I think it's also inevitable that large financial services firms will reduce the size of their London operation. I'm not talking about closing down, or anything like that, but Goldman Sachs could easily go from having 95% of their European staff in London to having 60%.
4. A lot of places which have traditionally been sources for EU immigration to the UK are growing quickly. On a PPP basis, Poland has gone from $18,000 to $25,000 GDP per capita in the last decade for example. Of course, there are still very poor places but even they are showing pretty rapid growth (Romania has gone from $15,000 to $20,000 in that period; Bulgaria $13,000 to $17,000.) The 'speed' of migration movements depends on the difference in wealth and the number of people willing to travel. The difference in wealth has - even absent new restrictions on EU nationals working in the UK - narrowed sharply.
Item 4 is precisely what the EU technocrats who dreamt up the single market hoped and believed would happen. Personally, I remain to be convinced as to how quickly this would affect migration rates, but for sake of argument let's assume these countries continue to catch up: it would be deeply ironic if we left the EU and single market just as freedom of movement becomes far less relevant.
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.
I would personally be very surprised if we see significant numbers of Poles return to Poland. Generally Poles are doing very well in the UK and even in the downturn it was shown few became unemployed and returned home.
Malcolm Gladwell also recently said that he was no longer in favour of positive discrimination, but he had looked at the data and it showed those being positively discriminated into top universities were not doing as well as those that went to traditional "black" colleges. Seems again, to ask the question why.
I read a bit of Trump's speech and frankly he was just saying the bleeding obvious - it's more of the unsayable that he's made his own.
It's no different from Kippers here doing precisely the same in hardcore Northern Labour areas. Those who think black voters belong to them are of course outraged.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.
I would personally be very surprised if we see significant numbers of Poles return to Poland. Generally Poles are doing very well in the UK and even in the downturn it was shown few became unemployed and returned home.
I see Poles going home all the time; our local Pret sees people return regularly. Builders won't be here if there's less building work. In the tech space, Google just moved their Android TV development from London to Poland.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
Could well be. I will never forget Obama's reelection and coming into the office, and a colleague commenting that it was good, and having no answer when I asked 'Why's that?'
Now, I am certain I would vote Democrat before Republican, and I don't known enough about Obama's successes or failures to properly assess him, but that it was an automatic assumption it must be good for him to win struck me.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
Trump donated a dozen trucks full of basic household stuff to residents of a Louisiana town hit by floods. Watched a bit of CNN trying to cover the delighted response to it.
Obama meanwhile is playing golf. And Hillary largely invisible.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
Trump donated a dozen trucks full of basic household stuff to residents of a Louisiana town hit by floods. Watched a bit of CNN trying to cover the delighted response to it.
Obama meanwhile is playing golf.
It's almost like one of them is trying to win an election! Wonder how he funded it?
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
Maybe but that does not stop it being true and Canada is still doing relatively well economically, given the next US president will be Hillary or Trump, neither of whom are vastly popular in the UK (especially the latter) Trudeau is likely to be flavour of the month for a while yet
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.
I would personally be very surprised if we see significant numbers of Poles return to Poland. Generally Poles are doing very well in the UK and even in the downturn it was shown few became unemployed and returned home.
I see Poles going home all the time; our local Pret sees people return regularly. Builders won't be here if there's less building work. In the tech space, Google just moved their Android TV development from London to Poland.
I would be interested to know the distributions of those that have been in the UK by number of years. Of course people will always come and find it isn't for them and go home, but as I said in the downturn people predicted that we would see lots of Eastern Europeans lose their jobs and return home, neither happened.
One interesting point that I saw somebody far more intelligent and informed bring up on a podcast, that unemployment among African Americans is huge and has been for generation after generation. But among immigrant groups of Latinos, Asians, etc, there is a clear pattern of 1st generation poor immigrants improving life chances for their offspring and by the time they get to 3/4th generation a significant proportion have made giant leaps up the ladder.
The question is why...it is all racialism? Even though black, brown and yellow immigrants on show progression. Is it education? I don't know, but never seen any research that really looks into this.
Well 1st generation African-Americans didn't really have much chance, did they?
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
Could well be. I will never forget Obama's reelection and coming into the office, and a colleague commenting that it was good, and having no answer when I asked 'Why's that?'
Now, I am certain I would vote Democrat before Republican, and I don't known enough about Obama's successes or failures to properly assess him, but that it was an automatic assumption it must be good for him to win struck me.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
Could well be. I will never forget Obama's reelection and coming into the office, and a colleague commenting that it was good, and having no answer when I asked 'Why's that?'
Now, I am certain I would vote Democrat before Republican, and I don't known enough about Obama's successes or failures to properly assess him, but that it was an automatic assumption it must be good for him to win struck me.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
In the women's triathlon, it has to be Gwen Jorgensen.
I know she's a yank, but she's been so dominant for the last couple of years it would almost be a crime if she didn't get gold. Although Duffy's also in superb form.
For the Brits, will be Helen Jenkins, who finally broke Jorgensen's winning streak earlier this year (I think!) or Stanford be best of the rest?
We were robbed of a real race in the mens' because of Gomez's absence through injury and Mola's dislike of the course. Let's hope the womens' race is a better spectacle.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....
Why do think Leave campaigned on an "Australian style points system". We also have t.v series showing the Aussies to be tough cookies when it comes to border controls.
We already have an 'Australian style points system' for non-EU nationals - see the huge fuss kicked up in Scotland by the student family who couldn't meet the criteria.....
Other interesting stuff in that YouGov poll - despite the constant bleating of Fraser Nelson & Nicola Sturgeon (curious bed-fellows - ed.) the 'guarantee EU residents absolute rights irrespective of what happens to Brits in the EU' position is not the most popular:
Guarantee EU residents right to remain: 38 Guarantee EU residents right to remain provided Brits in EU get same: 49 Chuck'em out: 4
The position in Scotland is virtually the same as in rUK: (41 / 49 / 3)
Scottish attitudes are normally always in line with rUK, but I understand the democratic deficit of the U.K. not sure how to square the circle of one nation being 83%.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
Trump donated a dozen trucks full of basic household stuff to residents of a Louisiana town hit by floods. Watched a bit of CNN trying to cover the delighted response to it.
Obama meanwhile is playing golf.
It's almost like one of them is trying to win an election! Wonder how he funded it?
It was necessary for you to edit ailing Hillary out. She's hopeless.
One interesting point that I saw somebody far more intelligent and informed bring up on a podcast, that unemployment among African Americans is huge and has been for generation after generation. But among immigrant groups of Latinos, Asians, etc, there is a clear pattern of 1st generation poor immigrants improving life chances for their offspring and by the time they get to 3/4th generation a significant proportion have made giant leaps up the ladder.
The question is why...it is all racialism? Even though black, brown and yellow immigrants on show progression. Is it education? I don't know, but never seen any research that really looks into this.
'Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made a direct appeal to African-American voters, saying "What do you have to lose?" Mr Trump told a nearly all-white audience in Michigan that black voters "are living in poverty" and their "schools are no good". He promised to "produce" for African-Americans where Democrats had failed. "If you keep voting for the same people, you will keep getting exactly the same result," he said. He said his opponent, Democrat Hillary Clinton, "would rather provide a job to a refugee" than to unemployed black youths, "who have become refugees in their own country". Mrs Clinton called Mr Trump's remarks "so ignorant it's staggering".' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37135836
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....
Why do think Leave campaigned on an "Australian style points system". We also have t.v series showing the Aussies to be tough cookies when it comes to border controls.
We already have an 'Australian style points system' for non-EU nationals - see the huge fuss kicked up in Scotland by the student family who couldn't meet the criteria.....
Other interesting stuff in that YouGov poll - despite the constant bleating of Fraser Nelson & Nicola Sturgeon (curious bed-fellows - ed.) the 'guarantee EU residents absolute rights irrespective of what happens to Brits in the EU' position is not the most popular:
Guarantee EU residents right to remain: 38 Guarantee EU residents right to remain provided Brits in EU get same: 49 Chuck'em out: 4
The position in Scotland is virtually the same as in rUK: (41 / 49 / 3)
Scottish attitudes are normally always in line with rUK, but I understand the democratic deficit of the U.K. not sure how to square the circle of one nation being 83%.
The fact Scotland now has its own Parliament (unlike England) which decides most of its domestic policy probably helps
A few days ago I wrote that I thought that net immigration to the UK would turn negative at some point in the next decade. A concept that was considered beyond the realms of possibility. (Largely because most posters on here suffer from recency bias.)
Let me explain why net immigration is likely to turn negative:
[...]
4. A lot of places which have traditionally been sources for EU immigration to the UK are growing quickly. On a PPP basis, Poland has gone from $18,000 to $25,000 GDP per capita in the last decade for example. Of course, there are still very poor places but even they are showing pretty rapid growth (Romania has gone from $15,000 to $20,000 in that period; Bulgaria $13,000 to $17,000.) The 'speed' of migration movements depends on the difference in wealth and the number of people willing to travel. The difference in wealth has - even absent new restrictions on EU nationals working in the UK - narrowed sharply.
Item 4 is precisely what the EU technocrats who dreamt up the single market hoped and believed would happen. Personally, I remain to be convinced as to how quickly this would affect migration rates, but for sake of argument let's assume these countries continue to catch up: it would be deeply ironic if we left the EU and single market just as freedom of movement becomes far less relevant.
Human nature. Remember the animosity towards black immigrants 40-50 years ago. Imagine the kinds of anti-immigration referendum results we could've had at that time. Within a generation we had got used to the change. As fas as Farage is concerned, this referendum was perfectly timed, coming at the peak of New Europe immigration.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even those that are a bit more knowledge would be swayed by the fact Canada weathered the crash very well and its economy has been going great guns...but a lot of that is on the back of a) they cut back before the crash, b) oil is booming and c) long established US market with land border (and some creative tax approaches by Canada have got US firms to relocate some operations).
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
Trump donated a dozen trucks full of basic household stuff to residents of a Louisiana town hit by floods. Watched a bit of CNN trying to cover the delighted response to it.
Obama meanwhile is playing golf.
It's almost like one of them is trying to win an election! Wonder how he funded it?
It was necessary for you to edit ailing Hillary out. She's hopeless.
I didn't edit her out. She was edited in after i had posted.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I would think even th
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
Indeed, plus they have a hip, cool leader in Justin Trudeau
Nah thats a massive negative...the guys a idiot douche :-)
He is probably the most popular foreign leader at the moment, especially after Obama's 'back of the queue' comments and Merkel's opening the floodgates to migrants and almost a year after his election his poll rating is still very high in Canada
Like Obamarama fandom, it is built on weird media worship than facts.
Could well be. I will never forget Obama's reelection and coming into the office, and a colleague commenting that it was good, and having no answer when I asked 'Why's that?'
Now, I am certain I would vote Democrat before Republican, and I don't known enough about Obama's successes or failures to properly assess him, but that it was an automatic assumption it must be good for him to win struck me.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
Scores don't carry forward in diving. Others will be upgrading the difficulty of their dives through the semis and final.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
Scores don't carry forward in diving. Others will be upgrading the difficulty of their dives through the semis and final.
Argh, I know that - my point was that he's way ahead in form terms.
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.
I would personally be very surprised if we see significant numbers of Poles return to Poland. Generally Poles are doing very well in the UK and even in the downturn it was shown few became unemployed and returned home.
I see Poles going home all the time; our local Pret sees people return regularly. Builders won't be here if there's less building work. In the tech space, Google just moved their Android TV development from London to Poland.
On thing I picked up when I was looking at our seasonal worker arrangements (SAWS) which was discontinued in 2013 was that it was already hitting issues for the reasons you've mentioned downthread. There are already discussions on a non-EU SAWS simply because Eastern Europeans don't fancy back-breaking, relatively low paid work either.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
Scores don't carry forward in diving. Others will be upgrading the difficulty of their dives through the semis and final.
Argh, I know that - my point was that he's way ahead in form terms.
You can back him at 4/5-1 so might be worth a punt!
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There's a big Taekwondo training centre in Manchester, there's been huge investment in the sport and there is massive competition for places.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
A few days ago I wrote that I thought that net immigration to the UK would turn negative at some point in the next decade. A concept that was considered beyond the realms of possibility. (Largely because most posters on here suffer from recency bias.)
Let me explain why net immigration is likely to turn negative:
[...]
4. A lot of places which have traditionally been sources for EU immigration to the UK are growing quickly. On a PPP basis, Poland has gone from $18,000 to $25,000 GDP per capita in the last decade for example. Of course, there are still very poor places but even they are showing pretty rapid growth (Romania has gone from $15,000 to $20,000 in that period; Bulgaria $13,000 to $17,000.) The 'speed' of migration movements depends on the difference in wealth and the number of people willing to travel. The difference in wealth has - even absent new restrictions on EU nationals working in the UK - narrowed sharply.
Item 4 is precisely what the EU technocrats who dreamt up the single market hoped and believed would happen. Personally, I remain to be convinced as to how quickly this would affect migration rates, but for sake of argument let's assume these countries continue to catch up: it would be deeply ironic if we left the EU and single market just as freedom of movement becomes far less relevant.
Human nature. Remember the animosity towards black immigrants 40-50 years ago. Imagine the kinds of anti-immigration referendum results we could've had at that time. Within a generation we had got used to the change. As fas as Farage is concerned, this referendum was perfectly timed, coming at the peak of New Europe immigration.
Not necessarily. The next accessions will be Albania, Serbia, FYOM, Montenegro and our old mate Turkey. The first four have realistic chances (despite Turkey's announcement* this week, I still don't believe it). That's another pool of cheap labour to draw on, albeit they're relative minnows - probably ~10 million total.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There's a big Taekwondo training centre in Manchester, there's been huge investment in the sport and there is massive competition for places.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
Oh yes! I'd forgotten all about that huge fuss. What other martial arts are we competitive in? I know less than nothing about this field.
Comments
"Last time I looked they had won 24 gold medals to our seven — although it could be more by the time I finish typing this paragraph.
"We’ve got four TVs covering four different sports at once in our office and it seems like at least one of them is playing God Save the Queen at any given time".
The convicts shouldn't be too sad. She's their monarch too.
There will be no sharp slowdown in growth next quarter.
Edit: unless you've got a few million to spare, in which case there's some great publicity to be had in bailing out the Paralympics - Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Richard Branson, are you listening?
'Nigel Farage deserves a knighthood for giving the British their freedom'
http://tinyurl.com/hwhhhpe
Brilliantly tragic.
Just watched the Lutalo intv - awwwwwwwwwwwww, he's so gutted.
What's going on with the relay DQs? The judges are being very inconsistent. Though I confess to finding the USA 4x100m result rather karmic given it was apparently Gatlin at fault. He shouldn't even be at the Olympics.
I must say I didn’t expect Armageddon either. I was rather amused the other day, as I’ve mentiopned before, by the Leaver friend who is very disappointed with the lack of obvious Brexit activity to date.
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/uk_57b5a204e4b026af7c4cd752
They make the labour donkeys look like thoroughbreds.
He mentions it later in the piece. Wanted to be thorough no doubt.
As if losing the Ashes and going down in the rugby 3-0 to England wasn’t enough
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU,
28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
A conspiracy theorist might say they just wanted Brazil in the final!
Given the reports of the paras, it sounded like it could be along the likes of village cricket, where Bob's brother umpires both ends having once played cricket when he was 13.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p04571lg
None of the above obviously anything to do with a Canada / EU deal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37135836
One interesting point that I saw somebody far more intelligent and informed bring up on a podcast, that unemployment among African Americans is huge and has been for generation after generation. But among immigrant groups of Latinos, Asians, etc, there is a clear pattern of 1st generation poor immigrants improving life chances for their offspring and by the time they get to 3/4th generation a significant proportion have made giant leaps up the ladder.
The question is why...it is all racialism? Even though black, brown and yellow immigrants on show progression. Is it education? I don't know, but never seen any research that really looks into this.
Interestingly, in terms of a hard Brexit, while voters as a whole oppose it by 44% to 32%, UKIP voters back it by 68% to 16%. Tory voters also only very narrowly oppose it by 42% to 39%. Labour voters oppose it by 54% to 24% and LDs by 58% to 19%. 67% of UKIP voters also oppose allowing EU citizens to work and live here even for a trade deal, 41% of Tories also oppose free movement under any circumstances, 19% of Labour voters and 22% of LDs do too
That suggests UKIP will still be able to get a fair level of support if BREXIT falls short of hard BREXIT, as is most likely regardless of what model is chosen and could target the more than a third of Tory voters who back hard Brexit and almost a quarter of Labour voters who back hard BREXIT at the next general election
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5u0h1qgsi/BrexitScenarios_160818.pdf (p4-5)
Let me explain why net immigration is likely to turn negative:
1. A large portion of EU migrants were never planning to stay long-term. A large portion of the single, young immigrants came here treating the UK as a working holiday (just as Australians and New Zealanders used to.) Living in a cramped flat share in Camberwell is fun when you're 22, less so when you're 26. As these people look to settle down, they'll return to their home countries, where their parents are, and where property is cheap.
2. The weakness of the pound makes the UK less attractive. I know a couple of Polish builders who have families home, come here on Megabus, work for a month, and send their earnings home. They've all just taken a big pay cut because of the devaluation of the pound. If you could send home EUR1,000/month a year ago, but can only send EUR800 back now, that makes the UK a lot less attractive destination relative to - say - Germany.
3. We will almost certainly see some firms move staff back to Europe. Getting a German member of staff to work in the Bristol office used to be no harder than getting him an NI number. It's highly likely that will change in the future. I think it's also inevitable that large financial services firms will reduce the size of their London operation. I'm not talking about closing down, or anything like that, but Goldman Sachs could easily go from having 95% of their European staff in London to having 60%.
4. A lot of places which have traditionally been sources for EU immigration to the UK are growing quickly. On a PPP basis, Poland has gone from $18,000 to $25,000 GDP per capita in the last decade for example. Of course, there are still very poor places but even they are showing pretty rapid growth (Romania has gone from $15,000 to $20,000 in that period; Bulgaria $13,000 to $17,000.) The 'speed' of migration movements depends on the difference in wealth and the number of people willing to travel. The difference in wealth has - even absent new restrictions on EU nationals working in the UK - narrowed sharply.
6. We will likely have an economic slowdown in the next few years. Forecasts for economic growth in the UK next year (0.1-0.4%) are far below Eurozone levels (1.6-1.8%), and I think both numbers are probably roughly right. A slower economy, means fewer jobs, means fewer immigrants.
7. I expect much greater restrictions on non-EU immigration related to family members. This accounts for a very large portion of the 180,000 non-EU immigrants who come in every year. (And who - unlike EU ones - all stay.)
8. Brits leaving the UK will likely return to long-term levels of c. 70,000/year.
Put those together, and I would expect negative EU flows of 100-150,000 year at peak; 70,000 Brits (net) moving overseas; and a reduction of non-EU to perhaps 100,000.
Thanks to him the work has to be started now, which means we need six to nine months to formulate a strategy and discuss with EU and major players in r of EU that has a realistic chance of being agreed once formal negotiations start after A50.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
LOL
Other interesting stuff in that YouGov poll - despite the constant bleating of Fraser Nelson & Nicola Sturgeon (curious bed-fellows - ed.) the 'guarantee EU residents absolute rights irrespective of what happens to Brits in the EU' position is not the most popular:
Guarantee EU residents right to remain: 38
Guarantee EU residents right to remain
provided Brits in EU get same: 49
Chuck'em out: 4
The position in Scotland is virtually the same as in rUK: (41 / 49 / 3)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/k5u0h1qgsi/BrexitScenarios_160818.pdf
However, the recovery in the oil price will harm us as we're big importers of oil and gas. Construction activity is slowing - and will probably be a big drag in Q4 and Q1.
I would expect 1Q/2Q next year to be the weakest periods, and then we'll see a recovery in the second half of next year. However, I would expect declining construction spending to hold growth back throughout 2017 and 2018.
The biggest risk to the UK economy is that we don't have a rapid resolution to the question of what Britain's relationship with the EU will look like. Firms looking to make investment decisions in Europe will hold off committing capital to the UK until they know there will likely be a tariff free arrangement. We recently lost the top spot for (large country) FDI in Europe to Spain. I can't see us getting it back until we know what the relationship we have with the EU will be.
I can probably find exact numbers, if you like.
It's no different from Kippers here doing precisely the same in hardcore Northern Labour areas. Those who think black voters belong to them are of course outraged.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/36691338
!!!
Now, I am certain I would vote Democrat before Republican, and I don't known enough about Obama's successes or failures to properly assess him, but that it was an automatic assumption it must be good for him to win struck me.
Obama meanwhile is playing golf. And Hillary largely invisible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/43rd_Canadian_federal_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_federal_election
I know she's a yank, but she's been so dominant for the last couple of years it would almost be a crime if she didn't get gold. Although Duffy's also in superb form.
For the Brits, will be Helen Jenkins, who finally broke Jorgensen's winning streak earlier this year (I think!) or Stanford be best of the rest?
We were robbed of a real race in the mens' because of Gomez's absence through injury and Mola's dislike of the course. Let's hope the womens' race is a better spectacle.
(Though a GB winner would be great)
Mr Trump told a nearly all-white audience in Michigan that black voters "are living in poverty" and their "schools are no good".
He promised to "produce" for African-Americans where Democrats had failed.
"If you keep voting for the same people, you will keep getting exactly the same result," he said.
He said his opponent, Democrat Hillary Clinton, "would rather provide a job to a refugee" than to unemployed black youths, "who have become refugees in their own country".
Mrs Clinton called Mr Trump's remarks "so ignorant it's staggering".'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37135836
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce
Women's triathlon, Tom Daley
4 x 400 m W, 800m W, golf W
W k4 500m
Men's modern pentathlon real outside bet
Don't know enough about head-kicking to make a judgment.
66 total is on, 29 golds not so much.
* http://www.dw.com/en/turkey-our-goal-is-to-join-the-eu-by-2023/a-19486473