Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls might still be overstating Labour
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls might still be overstating Labour
The Ipsos-Mori poll this week contained a paradox. On the one hand, Labour’s headline voting intention share was 34%, some way up on their General Election performance. On the other, Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings were awful.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
9 gold medals from 9 attempts, a perfect record.
Great silver from Japan, beating the mighty USA down to bronze.
JUST IN - UPDATE: #USA Men DISQUALIFIED from the 4x100m Relay after originally winning #Bronze. https://t.co/oBA21F5jX3
Anyway, it's light outside so time to rest. Morning all!
Marcin Jędrusiński,Tobias Unger,Joseph Batangdon,Géza Pauer.
The speech is about 1 hour long, beginning at around 3:30, after a short introduction,
How can anyone in Labour complain about May refusing to unconditionally guarantee the rights of Latvians (and others) in this country, when Corbyn won't guarantee to come to their defence in their own country.....
How different, how very different from May's simple, one word answer when asked whether she'd use Trident.....
Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though.
Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.
Jonathan will tell you what its really like in the Labour trenches, I suspect there are a lot of very disillusioned Labour voters who just will not vote.
(player kicks off from halfway line with just him v goalie and a time limit).
It means it shifts from player being expected to score and being an idiot if he fails to player needing skill to score and the ones who do being heros.
The bit where the goalie fouled the player and gave away a proper penalty in the penalties was a bit surreal though.
In a funny way, the canard that all publicity is good publicity is not entirely untrue for Labour (except in the sense that strictly speaking, it is). But the spirit of the saying is right: the Tories and Labour are dominating media coverage at the moment to the extent that other options are not even being considered, so outside of Scotland and to a lesser extent, Wales, Labour is the only not-Tory option for those not paying attention.
http://tinyurl.com/h69qw3e
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
Huzzah for hockey girls!
I think parliament will take a while as they have become the 'respectable' opposition to the tories in areas that normally vote tory and would not countenance voting Labour when they get fed up with tories and won't make much inroad until the tories become unpopular in the way that they were in the 1990s again.
The big problem for Libdems is that outside London and Manchester they have little chance of being seen in the same way by disgruntled Labour voters and with tory leaning kippers returning home after brexit solved the schism there is only one way forward for UKIP which is a socially conservative version of Old Labour.
Historically if you go back before 1918 and the full franchise the now solid Labour seats were tory and the current tory seats were liberal. It was the tory party that is most responsible for squeezing out libs when a commentator in 1912 might have expected the full franchise to see the - party of the elite, tories - fall into third.
I think the libdem collapse in 2015 has to be seen in that historic light.
Must confess I'm struggling a bit seeing that......
Hmm. Seems the British relay team was disqualified again, although this time the reason is a mystery.
Fortunately, the Brazilian team are ready to take their place in the final.
http://dailym.ai/2b7166T.
Isn't this the same force that have decided to Nick people for 'misogyny' and record it as a hate crime even though it is actually not a crime at all?
Am I to understand you've opened an antiquarian bookshop ? .. if so ....
Huzzah ..
Better still if the female assistants are jolly hockey sticks ..
Nottinghamshire must be a wonderful place if the police have solved all crimes and are forced to invent new ones just for something to do.
First proper new customer yesterday - very exciting!
I also have an c18th cellar included. Sadly it was more coal hole than burgundy filled...
Labour's problems aren't superficial; they're existential. There is a vast gaping chasm of a divide within the party about the very nature of what the party is and should be for. Is it a 'movement' to promote socialism or is it a political party dedicated to winning power and implementing a social democratic platform? Are the former Greens, trotskyites and the like infiltrators or fellow supporters? Who speaks for the party: the membership or the PLP? Who speaks for it in parliament: the leader of the MPs?
Against which, the Tories held a leadership election where the various candidates ended up rallying round the elected leader without the need to even go to the membership, which has barely murmered a whisper of protest - because they're content with the unity and the outcome. That is an enormous difference in mindset, never mind self-discipline.
I wish your venture well. Sad to say many bookshops have closed over the decades. High rents, ebay, postal selling and the pernicious influence of Oxfam bookshops.
It's always a joy for this musty old tome to find same on the bookshelf of a decent bookseller ....
The worst of it is that because capital is not assessed for tax credits or child benefit) some of these parasite landlords get benefits too (tax credit and child benefit).
http://www.sheppardsworld.com/SCEditions/SC473/SC473AntiquatesPressRelease.pdf
Blair realised that traditional labour values would not get a majority and tried unsuccessfully to to (to the tories) what the tories did to the liberals after 1918.
Ie absorb a good slew into your tent and tack towards their policies enough to get enough of their voters for a majority. He failed because international power went to his head and he invaded iraq discrediting the brand allowing the diminishing core to take back control. It was a close run thing though.
But Blair wasn't even a Social Democrat; he started off as a Christian Democrat and ended as a NeoCon.
But everything seems to have gone very quiet on this issue. Has anybody heard what is happening?
But we keen being told (by Labour members, no less) that Tony Blair was a Tory
So who is engaged in doublethink?
Scores on the doors for this morning
Team GB. 24. 22. 13
China 22. 18. 25
Well done to all concerned even those that made the finals and it did not turn out quite as they would have hoped.
In the overwhelming vast cases, housing benefit is paid to tenants, not landlords.
When next in your county I shall take a turn in your direction .... clearly incognito in my clan kilt, Inverness cape and eagle feather mounted headdress.
Rutland being my favourite English county I always enjoy visiting Uppingham with its art galleries, antique shops, fine pubs. Above all the bookshops.
I do recall over twenty years past a wonderful Easter Saturday there. There was a tremendous bookfair in the Hall of Uppingham School - Secured some excellent items and a splendid weekend was had in glorious gluttony in fine company.
One small technical challenge - the tendency for Labour's voter turnout to be low in its safe seats is already allowed for in the models we all use to turn vote share into projected seats (because it happens every time and is therefore 'in the base'). Therefore it cannot be ignored as 'not mattering' when a pollster is trying to estimate actual national vote share from a set of stated voting intentions and expressed likelihood of voting statistics - to do so would be discounting the same factor twice.
It is just that in most cases the tenant has to deliver the money to the Landlord on behalf of the government.
China could get 3-4 more golds today and tomorrow, so it's going to be close.
With 90% of the population being Tories the wonder is that they ever lose.
I suppose the question could be considered more seriously be isolating a population of labour safe seats and seeing if there is any correlation between UKIP vote share and overall turnout. A rainy day job for someone.
Mo
Kayak bloke
2x boxing finals
Tom Daley
He expanded the private sector in the NHS; he increased the acadamies programme in education; he was hardline on law and order; he maintained the privatised industries other than when circumstances forced his government's hand (and added a few new privatisations); and he launched a pre-emptive war in Iraq.
There was little that could be defined at all as socialist that his government opted to do; still less that he rather than Brown opted to do.
In social and constitutional matters he was a liberal radical.
As usual, middle class renters get very worked up about this. Making being a landlord more difficult would be great for them, reducing house prices and making it easier for them to buy. Reducing the number of properties available to rent would be worse for poorer tenants, tending to drive up their rents. But this is all about subsidising the middle classes.
The only long term solution to the housing shortage is to build far more properties (which in turn would reduce the attractiveness of being a landlord). Time to start using the third dimension much more.
I would say on an "away match" rather than on home turf that's a massive improvement and richly deserved irrespective of what any other team achieve or don't achieve.
https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/20/brexit-eu-referendum-economy-project-fear
I also think that on current polling, with Labour 3:1 behind on best leader and 2:1 behind on economic competence (and also behind on other big issues like immigration), there'd be a bigger differential than usual were the election now.
Property gives people a stake in society; it also improves the character of neighbourhoods. Both of which are great things.
In this case, we need both short and long-term solutions.
I do hope they never serve on a Trident submarine (unless Jeremy Corbyn comes to power).