A few days ago I wrote that I thought that net immigration to the UK would turn negative at some point in the next decade. A concept that was considered beyond the realms of possibility. (Largely because most posters on here suffer from recency bias.)
Let me explain why net immigration is likely to turn negative:
[...]
4. A lot of places which have traditionally been sources for EU immigration to the UK are growing quickly. On a PPP basis, Poland has gone from $18,000 to $25,000 GDP per capita in the last decade for example. Of course, there are still very poor places but even they are showing pretty rapid growth (Romania has gone from $15,000 to $20,000 in that period; Bulgaria $13,000 to $17,000.) The 'speed' of migration movements depends on the difference in wealth and the number of people willing to travel. The difference in wealth has - even absent new restrictions on EU nationals working in the UK - narrowed sharply.
Item 4 is precisely what the EU technocrats who dreamt up the single market hoped and believed would happen. Personally, I remain to be convinced as to how quickly this would affect migration rates, but for sake of argument let's assume these countries continue to catch up: it would be deeply ironic if we left the EU and single market just as freedom of movement becomes far less relevant.
Human nature. Remember the animosity towards black immigrants 40-50 years ago. Imagine the kinds of anti-immigration referendum results we could've had at that time. Within a generation we had got used to the change. As fas as Farage is concerned, this referendum was perfectly timed, coming at the peak of New Europe immigration.
In gdp per capita terms on a nominal basis, the Czech Republic is on $17,257, Poland is on $12,495, Romania $8,906, Bulgaria $6,832 ie all less than the new level of the UK minimum wage so there would still have been a great incentive to come to the UK for a while yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
The 94% and 90% retention rates for Con and Lab quoted in the thread are misleading - they come only after applying the certainty to vote filter.
The more meaningful retention rates found by MORI were taken from all of those who say they voted in the general election, regardless of their current declared certainty to vote, are as follows (Mori Table 6): Con 84%, Lab 74%, LD 46%, UKIP 53%. For YouGov's most recent poll, the comparative retention rates were: Con 72%, Lab 60%, LD 47%, UKIP 58%.
Lab had higher retention rates than Con throughout the last parliament whereas the opposite is now the case. The LD figure is nothing exceptional for them - their centrist supporters are historically quite promiscuous and swap around a lot more than parties at either end of the spectrum.
A lot of 2015 Labour voters are still for now in the red camp but are biding their time while the leadership issue is still (perceived to be) in the balance. Corbyn's personal ratings even among current Labour voters are so low that, barring a big upset, more Labour voters will give up on the party in the event that he is seen to have secured his hold for the long term. The Con lead is going to go up, not down, after the Labour leadership is settled.
You're right about the 90/94% figures, although I did state in the piece that they related to "... the sample that generates the headline figure". But whether you use the headline figures or the overall ones, the Conservatives have a better retention rate but neither is seeing any significant defection to other parties.
Using the latest YouGov, Labour has retained 60%, has seen 20% defect, with 3% no longer voting and 18% don't know. In the previous YouGov poll they had retained 58%, with 20% defection, 3% no longer voting and 19% don't know. That 20% defection rate is I think far from insignificant.
I would give more store to YouGov polling in this sort of retention tracking, because their retention relies on immediate post election surveys rather than what people will admit to having voted now. Put yourself in the shoes of someone who voted Labour in 2015 but who now considers Labour under Corbyn to be an embarrassing shambles and has switched allegiance. Can you rely on such people admitting in an unsolicited phone call with a MORI interviewer that they had voted Labour in 2015?
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There's a big Taekwondo training centre in Manchester, there's been huge investment in the sport and there is massive competition for places.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
You wrote "gets knocked out of the first round" wrong.
A few days ago I wrote that I thought that net immigration to the UK would turn negative at some point in the next decade. A concept that was considered beyond the realms of possibility. (Largely because most posters on here suffer from recency bias.)
Let me explain why net immigration is likely to turn negative:
[...]
4. A lot of places which have traditionally been sources for EU immigration to the UK are growing quickly. On a PPP basis, Poland has gone from $18,000 to $25,000 GDP per capita in the last decade for example. Of course, there are still very poor places but even they are showing pretty rapid growth (Romania has gone from $15,000 to $20,000 in that period; Bulgaria $13,000 to $17,000.) The 'speed' of migration movements depends on the difference in wealth and the number of people willing to travel. The difference in wealth has - even absent new restrictions on EU nationals working in the UK - narrowed sharply.
Item 4 is precisely what the EU technocrats who dreamt up the single market hoped and believed would happen. Personally, I remain to be convinced as to how quickly this would affect migration rates, but for sake of argument let's assume these countries continue to catch up: it would be deeply ironic if we left the EU and single market just as freedom of movement becomes far less relevant.
Human nature. Remember the animosity towards black immigrants 40-50 years ago. Imagine the kinds of anti-immigration referendum results we could've had at that time. Within a generation we had got used to the change. As fas as Farage is concerned, this referendum was perfectly timed, coming at the peak of New Europe immigration.
In gdp per capita terms on a nominal basis, the Czech Republic is on $17,257, Poland is on $12,495, Romania $8,906, Bulgaria $6,832 ie all less than the new level of the UK minimum wage so there would still have been a great incentive to come to the UK for a while yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
The next immigration figures are out in six days, so we'll at least get a bit of a steer. I notice that UK universities offered a record number of places to EU students this week, presumably in anticipation of us pulling up the drawbridge.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There's a big Taekwondo training centre in Manchester, there's been huge investment in the sport and there is massive competition for places.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
You wrote "gets knocked out of the first round" wrong.
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.
I would personally be very surprised if we see significant numbers of Poles return to Poland. Generally Poles are doing very well in the UK and even in the downturn it was shown few became unemployed and returned home.
I see Poles going home all the time; our local Pret sees people return regularly. Builders won't be here if there's less building work. In the tech space, Google just moved their Android TV development from London to Poland.
Yes, there's a huge amount of churn. Despite the impression given by the Sun and the Mail, there's no free lunch in the UK for EU migrants and many of them choose to go home. (Or are in effect forced to through lack of money.) The personalities of the people involved is also a factor too, of course: moving country is never easy.
It's a fact of life, if disappointing, that the churlishness of Brits towards Poles is in the hope that a lack of friendliness will put them off from coming and/or staying. People do this despite the fact that (a) it's pathetic and inhumane, and (b) it's hardly effective, although the post-referendum atmosphere has made things even worse and has caused quite a few immigrants to consider their position.
We need to do more to persuade people that the political arena is the best place to air their grievances (not in the face of their new neighbours) so the Referendum was a double-edged sword. People did finally get their opportunity to express themselves; it was just a shame that there hadn't been earlier opportunities that didn't have such serious consequences.
Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
I am not sure that Labour's problems are superficial, but I could not agree more with your second paragraph. I would add that confidence is also a double-edged sword: hubris could be the Tories' downfall if they assume a Corbyn Labour is an automatic win for them.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....
Why do think Leave campaigned on an "Australian style points system". We also have t.v series showing the Aussies to be tough cookies when it comes to border controls.
We already have an 'Australian style points system' for non-EU nationals - see the huge fuss kicked up in Scotland by the student family who couldn't meet the criteria.....
Other interesting stuff in that YouGov poll - despite the constant bleating of Fraser Nelson & Nicola Sturgeon (curious bed-fellows - ed.) the 'guarantee EU residents absolute rights irrespective of what happens to Brits in the EU' position is not the most popular:
Guarantee EU residents right to remain: 38 Guarantee EU residents right to remain provided Brits in EU get same: 49 Chuck'em out: 4
The position in Scotland is virtually the same as in rUK: (41 / 49 / 3)
Scottish attitudes are normally always in line with rUK, but I understand the democratic deficit of the U.K. not sure how to square the circle of one nation being 83%.
The fact Scotland now has its own Parliament (unlike England) which decides most of its domestic policy probably helps
not enough, the money and laws they have are decided by westminster. Full fiscal autonomy is the only answer.
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....
Why do think Leave campaigned on an "Australian style points system". We also have t.v series showing the Aussies to be tough cookies when it comes to border controls.
We already have an 'Australian style points system' for non-EU nationals - see the huge fuss kicked up in Scotland by the student family who couldn't meet the criteria.....
Other interesting stuff in that YouGov poll - despite the constant bleating of Fraser Nelson & Nicola Sturgeon (curious bed-fellows - ed.) the 'guarantee EU residents absolute rights irrespective of what happens to Brits in the EU' position is not the most popular:
Guarantee EU residents right to remain: 38 Guarantee EU residents right to remain provided Brits in EU get same: 49 Chuck'em out: 4
The position in Scotland is virtually the same as in rUK: (41 / 49 / 3)
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There's a big Taekwondo training centre in Manchester, there's been huge investment in the sport and there is massive competition for places.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
Oh yes! I'd forgotten all about that huge fuss. What other martial arts are we competitive in? I know less than nothing about this field.
There's a strong Judo set-up, doesn't compare to taekwondo at the moment though.
A few days ago I wrote that I thought that net immigration to the UK would turn negative at some point in the next decade. A concept that was considered beyond the realms of possibility. (Largely because most posters on here suffer from recency bias.)
Let me explain why net immigration is likely to turn negative:
[...]
4. A lot of places which have traditionally been sources for EU immigration to the UK are growing quickly. On a PPP basis, Poland has gone from $18,000 to $25,000 GDP per capita in the last decade for example. Of course, there are still very poor places but even they are showing pretty rapid growth (Romania has gone from $15,000 to $20,000 in that period; Bulgaria $13,000 to $17,000.) The 'speed' of migration movements depends on the difference in wealth and the number of people willing to travel. The difference in wealth has - even absent new restrictions on EU nationals working in the UK - narrowed sharply.
Item 4 is precisely what the EU technocrats who dreamt up the single market hoped and believed would happen. Personally, I remain to be convinced as to how quickly this would affect migration rates, but for sake of argument let's assume these countries continue to catch up: it would be deeply ironic if we left the EU and single market just as freedom of movement becomes far less relevant.
Human nature. Remember the animosity towards black immigrants 40-50 years ago. Imagine the kinds of anti-immigration referendum results we could've had at that time. Within a generation we had got used to the change. As fas as Farage is concerned, this referendum was perfectly timed, coming at the peak of New Europe immigration.
In gdp per capita terms on a nominal basis, the Czech Republic is on $17,257, Poland is on $12,495, Romania $8,906, Bulgaria $6,832 ie all less than the new level of the UK minimum wage so there would still have been a great incentive to come to the UK for a while yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
The next immigration figures are out in six days, so we'll at least get a bit of a steer. I notice that UK universities offered a record number of places to EU students this week, presumably in anticipation of us pulling up the drawbridge.
Yes I think BREXIT will inevitably start to see a fall in the numbers though I do not expect it to be too dramatic unless we get a hard BREXIT
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.
I would personally be very surprised if we see significant numbers of Poles return to Poland. Generally Poles are doing very well in the UK and even in the downturn it was shown few became unemployed and returned home.
I see Poles going home all the time; our local Pret sees people return regularly. Builders won't be here if there's less building work. In the tech space, Google just moved their Android TV development from London to Poland.
It's a fact of life, if disappointing, that the churlishness of Brits towards Poles is in the hope that a lack of friendliness will put them off from coming and/or staying. People do this despite the fact that (a) it's pathetic and inhumane, and (b) it's hardly effective, although the post-referendum atmosphere has made things even worse and has caused quite a few immigrants to consider their position.
We need to do more to persuade people that the political arena is the best place to air their grievances (not in the face of their new neighbours) so the Referendum was a double-edged sword. People did finally get their opportunity to express themselves; it was just a shame that there hadn't been earlier opportunities that didn't have such serious consequences.
Where I live, A8 folk make up the overwhelming majority of immigrants (only about 8% of the population). We all get along fine. As the media tend to only report issues, we can easily get a distorted view of how well things are rubbing along.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There's a big Taekwondo training centre in Manchester, there's been huge investment in the sport and there is massive competition for places.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
Oh yes! I'd forgotten all about that huge fuss. What other martial arts are we competitive in? I know less than nothing about this field.
There's a strong Judo set-up, doesn't compare to taekwondo at the moment though.
I'm showing my age here - I can only think of Brian Johnson in Judo, didn't we have a recentish female medallist too?
'Canada Option' is the most popular BREXIT deal. Voters think a hard Brexit would be bad for Britain by 44% to 32%, a Norway style deal would be bad by 38% to 35% but a Canada style deal would be good for the UK by 50% to 24%.
36% of voters think it acceptable to follow EU regulations relating to the single market, 25% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 17% unacceptable. 33% think it acceptable to allow EU citizens the right to live and work in Britain, 19% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal and 33% unacceptable. Only 13% think it acceptable to make a financIal contribution to the EU, 28% undesirable but worth it for a trade deal, 44% think it unacceptable https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-/
Mr. HYUFD, I wonder how many of the respondents actually know what the "Canada Option" , or any other option actually is. Precious few, I suspect.
I suspect it comes down to 'Canada - nice successful country, member of the Commonwealth - what's not to like?' and zero to do with whatever the 'Canada deal' is - worth filing for later so what ever we do extract from the EU can be called a 'Canada-type deal' to help sell it.....
Why do think Leave campaigned on an "Australian style points system". We also have t.v series showing the Aussies to be tough cookies when it comes to border controls.
We already have an 'Australian style points system' for non-EU nationals - see the huge fuss kicked up in Scotland by the student family who couldn't meet the criteria.....
Other interesting stuff in that YouGov poll - despite the constant bleating of Fraser Nelson & Nicola Sturgeon (curious bed-fellows - ed.) the 'guarantee EU residents absolute rights irrespective of what happens to Brits in the EU' position is not the most popular:
Guarantee EU residents right to remain: 38 Guarantee EU residents right to remain provided Brits in EU get same: 49 Chuck'em out: 4
The position in Scotland is virtually the same as in rUK: (41 / 49 / 3)
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There's a big Taekwondo training centre in Manchester, there's been huge investment in the sport and there is massive competition for places.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
Oh yes! I'd forgotten all about that huge fuss. What other martial arts are we competitive in? I know less than nothing about this field.
There's a strong Judo set-up, doesn't compare to taekwondo at the moment though.
From observing once every 4 years, judo was a lot bigger a decade ago in Olympic terms with us regularly having several medal hopes. Repeated underperformance has slashed their funding.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There's a big Taekwondo training centre in Manchester, there's been huge investment in the sport and there is massive competition for places.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
Oh yes! I'd forgotten all about that huge fuss. What other martial arts are we competitive in? I know less than nothing about this field.
There's a strong Judo set-up, doesn't compare to taekwondo at the moment though.
I'm showing my age here - I can only think of Brian Johnson in Judo, didn't we have a recentish female medallist too?
There was a two female medals at the heavier weights in London.
Right, 61 medals. Still to come - Mo, Nicola Adams, Joe Joyce, Women's triathlon team is strong. 65 would equal 2012.
Will be so close to matching our Gold hail from 2012 too, shame about Lutalo and Ennis-Hill beaten pipped by someone who managed 5 PBs out of 7 events, which is surely unusual, but then we've picked up some other one's we might not have.
I've forgotten Tom Daley and the Women's 67kg Taekwondo. Need another 4 golds to match 2012. It could be done. Looking good for a second place finish in the medals table, though.
I saw it flash by on Twitter last night - he's 100pts clear of the chappy in 4th, and scored a 98.6% in one dive yesterday.
Amazing.
WTF are we doing in one-legged head kicking? It's amazing stuff by the whole team.
There's a big Taekwondo training centre in Manchester, there's been huge investment in the sport and there is massive competition for places.
There was a big row in 2012 about the men's selection - the guy who didn't get picked went off in the huff and now competes for Moldova!
Oh yes! I'd forgotten all about that huge fuss. What other martial arts are we competitive in? I know less than nothing about this field.
There's a strong Judo set-up, doesn't compare to taekwondo at the moment though.
I'm showing my age here - I can only think of Brian Johnson in Judo, didn't we have a recentish female medallist too?
There was a two female medals at the heavier weights in London.
BBC's Rishi very understanding interview with the Womens K4. Great way of handling the minor dissappointment. They had only been together as a 4 for a year and have age on their side.
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.
I would personally be very surprised if we see significant numbers of Poles return to Poland. Generally Poles are doing very well in the UK and even in the downturn it was shown few became unemployed and returned home.
I see Poles going home all the time; our local Pret sees people return regularly. Builders won't be here if there's less building work. In the tech space, Google just moved their Android TV development from London to Poland.
It's a fact of life, if disappointing, that the churlishness of Brits towards Poles is in the hope that a lack of friendliness will put them off from coming and/or staying. People do this despite the fact that (a) it's pathetic and inhumane, and (b) it's hardly effective, although the post-referendum atmosphere has made things even worse and has caused quite a few immigrants to consider their position.
We need to do more to persuade people that the political arena is the best place to air their grievances (not in the face of their new neighbours) so the Referendum was a double-edged sword. People did finally get their opportunity to express themselves; it was just a shame that there hadn't been earlier opportunities that didn't have such serious consequences.
Where I live, A8 folk make up the overwhelming majority of immigrants (only about 8% of the population). We all get along fine. As the media tend to only report issues, we can easily get a distorted view of how well things are rubbing along.
RCS1000 - On point #1, I am not sure Ozzie are comparable to migrant workers from Eastern Europe. Australia is a very attractive place to live, lovely climate, good jobs, high pay, etc etc etc.
While Poland economy has been expanding, life in Poland is a long way off living in Australia.
Also, many communities that the Poles have come from kinda of don't exist now. The BBC had a report from a small Polish town and all the young people had left, all the facilities had closed, it was just a ghost town of oldies. Now perhaps the young Poles might what to go back to that and rebuild their home town, but again it makes moving back harder.
Finally, maybe they think their kids will be better off growing up in the UK, as it has done them well so far and British education (for all we think there can be improvements) is rated very highly by foreigners.
I'm not saying they'll all go home. But some will. If - say - 100,000 come here every year from Poland, and 50,000 go home, it's likely to change to 40,000 coming here and 50,000 returning.
I see Poles going home all the time; our local Pret sees people return regularly. Builders won't be here if there's less building work. In the tech space, Google just moved their Android TV development from London to Poland.
We need to do more to persuade people that the political arena is the best place to air their grievances (not in the face of their new neighbours) so the Referendum was a double-edged sword. People did finally get their opportunity to express themselves; it was just a shame that there hadn't been earlier opportunities that didn't have such serious consequences.
Where I live, A8 folk make up the overwhelming majority of immigrants (only about 8% of the population). We all get along fine. As the media tend to only report issues, we can easily get a distorted view of how well things are rubbing along.
The local hate figures are Roma.
Who obviously aren't immigrants.
There aren't enough of them to be an issue. Its just that while the rest of the new folk are widely admired for their work ethic, no one has a good word for the Roma (mostly over Gloucester way). That seems to be true across Europe, based on the few polls I've seen.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita
I would give more store to YouGov polling in this sort of retention tracking, because their retention relies on immediate post election surveys rather than what people will admit to having voted now. Put yourself in the shoes of someone who voted Labour in 2015 but who now considers Labour under Corbyn to be an embarrassing shambles and has switched allegiance. Can you rely on such people admitting in an unsolicited phone call with a MORI interviewer that they had voted Labour in 2015?
It's a fact of life, if disappointing, that the churlishness of Brits towards Poles is in the hope that a lack of friendliness will put them off from coming and/or staying. People do this despite the fact that (a) it's pathetic and inhumane, and (b) it's hardly effective, although the post-referendum atmosphere has made things even worse and has caused quite a few immigrants to consider their position.
We need to do more to persuade people that the political arena is the best place to air their grievances (not in the face of their new neighbours) so the Referendum was a double-edged sword. People did finally get their opportunity to express themselves; it was just a shame that there hadn't been earlier opportunities that didn't have such serious consequences.
https://www.loveyourneighbour.org/
In fact its very, very similar
The local hate figures are Roma.
You don't mean Brian Jacks, do you?
Disgraceful for a lady of her age ....
New Thread BTW