politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls might still be overstating Labour
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls might still be overstating Labour
The Ipsos-Mori poll this week contained a paradox. On the one hand, Labour’s headline voting intention share was 34%, some way up on their General Election performance. On the other, Jeremy Corbyn’s approval ratings were awful.
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1st like the Tories!0
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silver0
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so why did the men 400m relay not qualify0
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what changes have mori made since 2015?0
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3 fights in one day in the kicking PJ's thingy.0
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USAIN BOLT!!!!!
9 gold medals from 9 attempts, a perfect record.
Great silver from Japan, beating the mighty USA down to bronze.0 -
ABC
JUST IN - UPDATE: #USA Men DISQUALIFIED from the 4x100m Relay after originally winning #Bronze. https://t.co/oBA21F5jX30 -
omg U.S dq, farce.0
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Omnishambles Games 2016....0
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After they'd run their lap of honour as well. Looks like last change was too late.PlatoSaid said:ABC
JUST IN - UPDATE: #USA Men DISQUALIFIED from the 4x100m Relay after originally winning #Bronze. https://t.co/oBA21F5jX3
Anyway, it's light outside so time to rest. Morning all!0 -
Lutalo Muhammad has given Martyn Rooney a run for his money as most extraordinary interview of the games.0
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I hate being in a different time zone ans having to wait for people to wake up
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Got to try and think of a really astute comment for my 1000th post0
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was good watching the relay at a sensible hour tho, eh?Blue_rog said:I hate being in a different time zone ans having to wait for people to wake up
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Can't stream UK TV heredugarbandier said:
was good watching the relay at a sensible hour tho, eh?Blue_rog said:I hate being in a different time zone ans having to wait for people to wake up
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Ah, shame. Where are you? Japanese TV only shows the sports with Japanese competitors - got lucky with the relay (amidst the monstrous tedium of a million women's ping pong, badminton and wrestling matches.. actually some of the badminton was all right)Blue_rog said:
Can't stream UK TV heredugarbandier said:
was good watching the relay at a sensible hour tho, eh?Blue_rog said:I hate being in a different time zone ans having to wait for people to wake up
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Just woke up to see the Lutalo stuff. How completely gutting0
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I'm in India but most of the TV is in Hindu0
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Just come across a speech on the origins of partisanship in US politics, and how it might be reduced, given at the American Psychological Association convention, by Dr Haidt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAE-gxKs6gM
The speech is about 1 hour long, beginning at around 3:30, after a short introduction,0 -
Interesting thread, as ever Mr Herdson.
How can anyone in Labour complain about May refusing to unconditionally guarantee the rights of Latvians (and others) in this country, when Corbyn won't guarantee to come to their defence in their own country.....
How different, how very different from May's simple, one word answer when asked whether she'd use Trident.....0 -
you'll have been getting some wrestling too, thenBlue_rog said:I'm in India but most of the TV is in Hindu
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Good header DH.
Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though.
Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.0 -
I think I posted as much as soon as I saw it .Of course the polls are overstating Labour . The 34% figure is difficult to believe, we need more polls , but I think its a hell of an outlier. Tory fig is too high too imho.
Jonathan will tell you what its really like in the Labour trenches, I suspect there are a lot of very disillusioned Labour voters who just will not vote.0 -
Got to say I much prefer the Hockey Shootout to Footballs version.
(player kicks off from halfway line with just him v goalie and a time limit).
It means it shifts from player being expected to score and being an idiot if he fails to player needing skill to score and the ones who do being heros.
The bit where the goalie fouled the player and gave away a proper penalty in the penalties was a bit surreal though.0 -
One thing I only touched on in the header - because it was already a long piece and I didn't want to extend it further - was the current invisibility of UKIP and the Lib Dems. That's unlikely to last through the parliament and certainly won't last through an election campaign.
In a funny way, the canard that all publicity is good publicity is not entirely untrue for Labour (except in the sense that strictly speaking, it is). But the spirit of the saying is right: the Tories and Labour are dominating media coverage at the moment to the extent that other options are not even being considered, so outside of Scotland and to a lesser extent, Wales, Labour is the only not-Tory option for those not paying attention.0 -
I really cant see an election before the constituency changes and after that they will want to complete brexit first so looks like 2020 to me.foxinsoxuk said:Good header DH.
Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though.
Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.0 -
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Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Huzzah for hockey girls!0 -
Methinks we all worry too much and read too many opinion polls, which recently have hardly been helpful to good future results. Labour are doing okay considering everything. Once the leadership dust has settled they will unite and move on. By the way I am NOT a Labour supporter. We all know there cannot be a snap election under the present system, any government that produces a vote of no confidence in itself will be laughed at and seen as stupid.0
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The libdems seem to be gradually recovering their council base.david_herdson said:One thing I only touched on in the header - because it was already a long piece and I didn't want to extend it further - was the current invisibility of UKIP and the Lib Dems. That's unlikely to last through the parliament and certainly won't last through an election campaign.
In a funny way, the canard that all publicity is good publicity is not entirely untrue for Labour (except in the sense that strictly speaking, it is). But the spirit of the saying is right: the Tories and Labour are dominating media coverage at the moment to the extent that other options are not even being considered, so outside of Scotland and to a lesser extent, Wales, Labour is the only not-Tory option for those not paying attention.
I think parliament will take a while as they have become the 'respectable' opposition to the tories in areas that normally vote tory and would not countenance voting Labour when they get fed up with tories and won't make much inroad until the tories become unpopular in the way that they were in the 1990s again.
The big problem for Libdems is that outside London and Manchester they have little chance of being seen in the same way by disgruntled Labour voters and with tory leaning kippers returning home after brexit solved the schism there is only one way forward for UKIP which is a socially conservative version of Old Labour.
Historically if you go back before 1918 and the full franchise the now solid Labour seats were tory and the current tory seats were liberal. It was the tory party that is most responsible for squeezing out libs when a commentator in 1912 might have expected the full franchise to see the - party of the elite, tories - fall into third.
I think the libdem collapse in 2015 has to be seen in that historic light.0 -
Posted this last night too - what a shambles. Pleased Osborne is away from the treasury. Conservative Chancellors should not go tinkering with gimmicks like this. They should help to improve the life chances of poor through aspiration, lower taxes to stimulate growth and raise taxes to discourage socially questionable capitalism (like Buy to Let).tlg86 said:Well the H2B ISA is working out well:
http://tinyurl.com/h69qw3e0 -
Morning Mr Dancer - thanks for your VM mail. Give me a few days to reply properly?Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Huzzah for hockey girls!0 -
Anyone seen Tyson since the Horse Dancing gold?Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Huzzah for hockey girls!0 -
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Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.0 -
You mean with hundreds of thousands of new joiners foisting someone like Phillip Hollobone on a Parliamentary Party which couldn't organise a decent coup?Jonathan said:If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
Must confess I'm struggling a bit seeing that......0 -
Mr. Mortimer, of course.
Hmm. Seems the British relay team was disqualified again, although this time the reason is a mystery.
Fortunately, the Brazilian team are ready to take their place in the final.0 -
There really is a solution to this. Why no-one has tried baffles me. Far more votes from aspirant homeowners than Buy to Letters.Pulpstar said:0 -
What is going on at Notts Police?
http://dailym.ai/2b7166T.
Isn't this the same force that have decided to Nick people for 'misogyny' and record it as a hate crime even though it is actually not a crime at all?0 -
Mr. Bedfordshire, yes, it is.
Nottinghamshire must be a wonderful place if the police have solved all crimes and are forced to invent new ones just for something to do.0 -
Correct Mr W! Thank you!JackW said:@Mortimer
Am I to understand you've opened an antiquarian bookshop ? .. if so ....
Huzzah .. ....
Better still if the female assistants are jolly hockey sticks ..
First proper new customer yesterday - very exciting!
I also have an c18th cellar included. Sadly it was more coal hole than burgundy filled...0 -
The Tories could never find themselves where Labour is today because under the Tories' rather more practical rules, a vote of No Confidence in the leader by the parliamentary party is binding.Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
Labour's problems aren't superficial; they're existential. There is a vast gaping chasm of a divide within the party about the very nature of what the party is and should be for. Is it a 'movement' to promote socialism or is it a political party dedicated to winning power and implementing a social democratic platform? Are the former Greens, trotskyites and the like infiltrators or fellow supporters? Who speaks for the party: the membership or the PLP? Who speaks for it in parliament: the leader of the MPs?
Against which, the Tories held a leadership election where the various candidates ended up rallying round the elected leader without the need to even go to the membership, which has barely murmered a whisper of protest - because they're content with the unity and the outcome. That is an enormous difference in mindset, never mind self-discipline.0 -
With a majority of 12 the Tories have never been stronger.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.0 -
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.0 -
Could have said the same thing about Labour five years ago.CarlottaVance said:
You mean with hundreds of thousands of new joiners foisting someone like Phillip Hollobone on a Parliamentary Party which couldn't organise a decent coup?Jonathan said:If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
Must confess I'm struggling a bit seeing that......0 -
A cellar might become a dungeon for recalcitrant customers .. I have some experience in the field.Mortimer said:Correct Mr W! Thank you!
First proper new customer yesterday - very exciting!
I also have an c18th cellar included. Sadly it was more coal hole than burgundy filled...
I wish your venture well. Sad to say many bookshops have closed over the decades. High rents, ebay, postal selling and the pernicious influence of Oxfam bookshops.
It's always a joy for this musty old tome to find same on the bookshelf of a decent bookseller ....
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Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.0 -
BTL landlords = scroungers leeching off the tax payers.Pulpstar said:
The worst of it is that because capital is not assessed for tax credits or child benefit) some of these parasite landlords get benefits too (tax credit and child benefit).0 -
Thank you! I'm still a little bit in love with our window...JackW said:
A cellar might become a dungeon for recalcitrant customers .. I have some experience in the field.Mortimer said:Correct Mr W! Thank you!
First proper new customer yesterday - very exciting!
I also have an c18th cellar included. Sadly it was more coal hole than burgundy filled...
I wish your venture well. Sad to say many bookshops have closed over the decades. High rents, ebay, postal selling and the pernicious influence of Oxfam bookshops.
It's always a joy for this musty old tome to find same on the bookshelf of a decent bookseller ....
http://www.sheppardsworld.com/SCEditions/SC473/SC473AntiquatesPressRelease.pdf
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In the kicky boxing I can't understand why our guy did not do what the guy did the other day in a similar position. They poised ready to engage and the guy in the lead just ran off the combat floor and as such time ran out.0
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It only ever got two working majorities. One of those in 1945 was in an extraordinary situation, the other was I suspect down to Wilsons personal charisma but even this was short lived.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
Blair realised that traditional labour values would not get a majority and tried unsuccessfully to to (to the tories) what the tories did to the liberals after 1918.
Ie absorb a good slew into your tent and tack towards their policies enough to get enough of their voters for a majority. He failed because international power went to his head and he invaded iraq discrediting the brand allowing the diminishing core to take back control. It was a close run thing though.0 -
The point was about socialism, not Labour. If Labour decided to return to the centre and had a charismatic (or even competent) leader, I'd be a lot more concerned about the Tories' ability to win.Jonathan said:
Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
But Blair wasn't even a Social Democrat; he started off as a Christian Democrat and ended as a NeoCon.0 -
What's 'repeating the same process and expecting a different outcome' a definition of again....?Jonathan said:
Could have said the same thing about Labour five years ago.CarlottaVance said:
You mean with hundreds of thousands of new joiners foisting someone like Phillip Hollobone on a Parliamentary Party which couldn't organise a decent coup?Jonathan said:If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
Must confess I'm struggling a bit seeing that......0 -
We must not overlook the possibility, Mr Bedfordshire, that 20 to 30 Tory MPs will become disqualified for their despicable behaviour in the 2015 general election. Then Mrs May will lose her majority and this Conservative government will fall. Her hand will be forced.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I really cant see an election before the constituency changes and after that they will want to complete brexit first so looks like 2020 to me.foxinsoxuk said:Good header DH. Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though. Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.
But everything seems to have gone very quiet on this issue. Has anybody heard what is happening?0 -
Jonathan said:
Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
But we keen being told (by Labour members, no less) that Tony Blair was a Tory
So who is engaged in doublethink?0 -
So you think Tony Blair was a socialist? Many on the left would disagree with you, some even considering him just another Tory.Jonathan said:
Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.0 -
"despicable behaviour"? You havent been getting all labourEoin on us have you? If the line on national / local campaigning is enforced in court, expect half of parliament to be resigning.PClipp said:
We must not overlook the possibility, Mr Bedfordshire, that 20 to 30 Tory MPs will become disqualified for their despicable behaviour in the 2015 general election. Then Mrs May will lose her majority and this Conservative government will fall. Her hand will be forced.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I really cant see an election before the constituency changes and after that they will want to complete brexit first so looks like 2020 to me.foxinsoxuk said:Good header DH. Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though. Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.
But everything seems to have gone very quiet on this issue. Has anybody heard what is happening?0 -
last I heard turns out all parties could be accused of various breaches across many seats. Relying on the tories being uniquely criminal seems unwise.PClipp said:
We must not overlook the possibility, Mr Bedfordshire, that 20 to 30 Tory MPs will become disqualified for their despicable behaviour in the 2015 general election. Then Mrs May will lose her majority and this Conservative government will fall. Her hand will be forced.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I really cant see an election before the constituency changes and after that they will want to complete brexit first so looks like 2020 to me.foxinsoxuk said:Good header DH. Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though. Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.
But everything seems to have gone very quiet on this issue. Has anybody heard what is happening?
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Tyson look away now this post has posh flashing images
Scores on the doors for this morning
Team GB. 24. 22. 13
China 22. 18. 25
Well done to all concerned even those that made the finals and it did not turn out quite as they would have hoped.0 -
Only in the most exceptional circumstances do landlords get housing benefit, such as the cases that their tenants may have mental illness or are vulnerable in some way. The risk of getting direct payment is that in the event of a problem with the eligibility or overpayment the landlord is at risk or having to repay.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
BTL landlords = scroungers leeching off the tax payers.Pulpstar said:
The worst of it is that because capital is not assessed for tax credits or child benefit) some of these parasite landlords get benefits too (tax credit and child benefit).
In the overwhelming vast cases, housing benefit is paid to tenants, not landlords.0 -
Very fine.Mortimer said:Thank you! I'm still a little bit in love with our window...
http://www.sheppardsworld.com/SCEditions/SC473/SC473AntiquatesPressRelease.pdf
When next in your county I shall take a turn in your direction .... clearly incognito in my clan kilt, Inverness cape and eagle feather mounted headdress.
Rutland being my favourite English county I always enjoy visiting Uppingham with its art galleries, antique shops, fine pubs. Above all the bookshops.
I do recall over twenty years past a wonderful Easter Saturday there. There was a tremendous bookfair in the Hall of Uppingham School - Secured some excellent items and a splendid weekend was had in glorious gluttony in fine company.
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Robert_Of_Sheffield said:
So you think Tony Blair was a socialist? Many on the left would disagree with you, some even considering him just another Tory.Jonathan said:
Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
If Tony Blair had renationalised everything and raise the red flag over no10 those same people on the left would still call him a Tory. They call everyone they don't like Tories. Doesn't mean they are right.CarlottaVance said:Jonathan said:
Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
But we keen being told (by Labour members, no less) that Tony Blair was a Tory
So who is engaged in doublethink?0 -
I agree with the thrust of David's post - although I suspect that, as things are, the two more dominant factors will be the 'smell test' - when voters come to take a sniff of Labour as a prospective government, rather than just a stock non-Tory preference, a good chunk of them won't like what they smell - and the likelihood that Labour's GE campaign will both be poor and mercilessly painted by the press as poor, even where it isn't.
One small technical challenge - the tendency for Labour's voter turnout to be low in its safe seats is already allowed for in the models we all use to turn vote share into projected seats (because it happens every time and is therefore 'in the base'). Therefore it cannot be ignored as 'not mattering' when a pollster is trying to estimate actual national vote share from a set of stated voting intentions and expressed likelihood of voting statistics - to do so would be discounting the same factor twice.0 -
Parasites.Pulpstar said:0 -
It's an overblown story quibbling about accounting technicalities? The public is not going to get het up about where central staff sleep.PClipp said:
We must not overlook the possibility, Mr Bedfordshire, that 20 to 30 Tory MPs will become disqualified for their despicable behaviour in the 2015 general election. Then Mrs May will lose her majority and this Conservative government will fall. Her hand will be forced.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I really cant see an election before the constituency changes and after that they will want to complete brexit first so looks like 2020 to me.foxinsoxuk said:Good header DH. Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though. Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.
But everything seems to have gone very quiet on this issue. Has anybody heard what is happening?0 -
ALL BTL landlords with tenants receiving housing benefit get housing benefit.notme said:
Only in the most exceptional circumstances do landlords get housing benefit, such as the cases that their tenants may have mental illness or are vulnerable in some way. The risk of getting direct payment is that in the event of a problem with the eligibility or overpayment the landlord is at risk or having to repay.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
BTL landlords = scroungers leeching off the tax payers.Pulpstar said:
The worst of it is that because capital is not assessed for tax credits or child benefit) some of these parasite landlords get benefits too (tax credit and child benefit).
In the overwhelming vast cases, housing benefit is paid to tenants, not landlords.
It is just that in most cases the tenant has to deliver the money to the Landlord on behalf of the government.0 -
Worth noting that the reason that Britain is tussling with China for second is because China has become relatively worse rather than Britain becoming relatively better. China won 38 golds in London.Moses_ said:Tyson look away now this post has posh flashing images
Scores on the doors for this morning
Team GB. 24. 22. 13
China 22. 18. 25
Well done to all concerned even those that made the finals and it did not turn out quite as they would have hoped.0 -
There are at least two silvers for TeamGB to come, and a chance of at least two more golds I think.Moses_ said:Tyson look away now this post has posh flashing images
Scores on the doors for this morning
Team GB. 24. 22. 13
China 22. 18. 25
Well done to all concerned even those that made the finals and it did not turn out quite as they would have hoped.
China could get 3-4 more golds today and tomorrow, so it's going to be close.0 -
Indeed. The Tories are on 40% and they are self-evidently all Tories. Add another 20% for everyone in the Labour Party from Smith through to the Blairites and you get to 60%. The LibDems are yellow Tories and UKIP are even more Tory than the Tories so that makes 85% altogether. A lot of the SNP are former Tories, there must be a few Green Tories, and the less said about Northern Ireland the better.Jonathan said:Robert_Of_Sheffield said:
So you think Tony Blair was a socialist? Many on the left would disagree with you, some even considering him just another Tory.Jonathan said:
Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
If Tony Blair had renationalised everything and raise the red flag over no10 those same people on the left would still call him a Tory. They call everyone they don't like Tories. Doesn't mean they are right.CarlottaVance said:Jonathan said:
Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
But we keen being told (by Labour members, no less) that Tony Blair was a Tory
So who is engaged in doublethink?
With 90% of the population being Tories the wonder is that they ever lose.0 -
Out of interest, is there any evidence that when there is a serious UKIP challenge in these seats, turnout goes up significantly and is there any analysis as to how much of the increased turnout is supposed Lab supporters who don't usually bother to vote turning out for Labour?IanB2 said:I agree with the thrust of David's post - although I suspect that, as things are, the two more dominant factors will be the 'smell test' - when voters come to take a sniff of Labour as a prospective government, rather than just a stock non-Tory preference, a good chunk of them won't like what they smell - and the likelihood that Labour's GE campaign will both be poor and mercilessly painted by the press as poor, even where it isn't.
One small technical challenge - the tendency for Labour's voter turnout to be low in its safe seats is already allowed for in the models we all use to turn vote share into projected seats (because it happens every time and is therefore 'in the base'). Therefore it cannot be ignored as 'not mattering' when a pollster is trying to estimate actual national vote share from a set of stated voting intentions and expressed likelihood of voting statistics - to do so would be discounting the same factor twice.0 -
I guess the easy answer is to observe that you can only have evidence once something has actually happened. Labour hasn't actually been seriously threatened by UKIP anywhere at parliamentary level yet, except for that one by-election.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Out of interest, is there any evidence that when there is a serious UKIP challenge in these seats, turnout goes up significantly and is there any analysis as to how much of the increased turnout is supposed Lab supporters who don't usually bother to vote turning out for Labour?IanB2 said:I agree with the thrust of David's post - although I suspect that, as things are, the two more dominant factors will be the 'smell test' - when voters come to take a sniff of Labour as a prospective government, rather than just a stock non-Tory preference, a good chunk of them won't like what they smell - and the likelihood that Labour's GE campaign will both be poor and mercilessly painted by the press as poor, even where it isn't.
One small technical challenge - the tendency for Labour's voter turnout to be low in its safe seats is already allowed for in the models we all use to turn vote share into projected seats (because it happens every time and is therefore 'in the base'). Therefore it cannot be ignored as 'not mattering' when a pollster is trying to estimate actual national vote share from a set of stated voting intentions and expressed likelihood of voting statistics - to do so would be discounting the same factor twice.
I suppose the question could be considered more seriously be isolating a population of labour safe seats and seeing if there is any correlation between UKIP vote share and overall turnout. A rainy day job for someone.0 -
Possible Golds off the top of my head:Casino_Royale said:
There are at least two silvers for TeamGB to come, and a chance of at least two more golds I think.Moses_ said:Tyson look away now this post has posh flashing images
Scores on the doors for this morning
Team GB. 24. 22. 13
China 22. 18. 25
Well done to all concerned even those that made the finals and it did not turn out quite as they would have hoped.
China could get 3-4 more golds today and tomorrow, so it's going to be close.
Mo
Kayak bloke
2x boxing finals
Tom Daley0 -
He didn't though, did he?Jonathan said:
If Tony Blair had renationalised everything and raise the red flag over no10 those same people on the left would still call him a Tory. They call everyone they don't like Tories. Doesn't mean they are right.CarlottaVance said:Jonathan said:
Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
But we keen being told (by Labour members, no less) that Tony Blair was a Tory
So who is engaged in doublethink?
He expanded the private sector in the NHS; he increased the acadamies programme in education; he was hardline on law and order; he maintained the privatised industries other than when circumstances forced his government's hand (and added a few new privatisations); and he launched a pre-emptive war in Iraq.
There was little that could be defined at all as socialist that his government opted to do; still less that he rather than Brown opted to do.
In social and constitutional matters he was a liberal radical.0 -
Mr. Scrapheap, probably get 2-3 golds from that list. May be down to silvers.0
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Indeed it is going to be close. I really do feel for those overnight that came so so close to their dream and yet it wasn't to be.Casino_Royale said:
There are at least two silvers for TeamGB to come, and a chance of at least two more golds I think.Moses_ said:Tyson look away now this post has posh flashing images
Scores on the doors for this morning
Team GB. 24. 22. 13
China 22. 18. 25
Well done to all concerned even those that made the finals and it did not turn out quite as they would have hoped.
China could get 3-4 more golds today and tomorrow, so it's going to be close.0 -
Why is this filed in the Education section of the BBC News website?Pulpstar said:
As usual, middle class renters get very worked up about this. Making being a landlord more difficult would be great for them, reducing house prices and making it easier for them to buy. Reducing the number of properties available to rent would be worse for poorer tenants, tending to drive up their rents. But this is all about subsidising the middle classes.
The only long term solution to the housing shortage is to build far more properties (which in turn would reduce the attractiveness of being a landlord). Time to start using the third dimension much more.0 -
And none of the other parties will press the issue given that they all know that the electoral expense rules are shot through with holes and none of their campaigns would stand up to detailed scrutiny. There is an unwritten understanding that only the most blatant transgressions get challenged. Plus the voters don't like a rerun for legal reasons (cf Winchester).david_herdson said:
It's an overblown story quibbling about accounting technicalities? The public is not going to get het up about where central staff sleep.PClipp said:
We must not overlook the possibility, Mr Bedfordshire, that 20 to 30 Tory MPs will become disqualified for their despicable behaviour in the 2015 general election. Then Mrs May will lose her majority and this Conservative government will fall. Her hand will be forced.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I really cant see an election before the constituency changes and after that they will want to complete brexit first so looks like 2020 to me.foxinsoxuk said:Good header DH. Short of a snap election we cannot know the answer though. Under Jezza I expect a GE to have Labour about 20%, but probably 150 seats, but dropping further after that.
But everything seems to have gone very quiet on this issue. Has anybody heard what is happening?0 -
We are gold in 14 different sports the closest to us is 10 sports ( or was)david_herdson said:
Worth noting that the reason that Britain is tussling with China for second is because China has become relatively worse rather than Britain becoming relatively better. China won 38 golds in London.Moses_ said:Tyson look away now this post has posh flashing images
Scores on the doors for this morning
Team GB. 24. 22. 13
China 22. 18. 25
Well done to all concerned even those that made the finals and it did not turn out quite as they would have hoped.
I would say on an "away match" rather than on home turf that's a massive improvement and richly deserved irrespective of what any other team achieve or don't achieve.0 -
Larry Elliot wondering where the economic Armageddon is:
https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/20/brexit-eu-referendum-economy-project-fear
0 -
That would be true if the pollsters had accurately factored it in. My suspicion is that they haven't - hence the consistent over-reporting of the Labour share and/or the under-reporting of the Tory one in the standard polls but the accurate reporting of opinion in the exit polls. The crucial different being that the former take those who *say* they're going to vote whereas the latter take those who actually have voted. The difference between the two may be a significant factor in explaining the difference.IanB2 said:[snip]
One small technical challenge - the tendency for Labour's voter turnout to be low in its safe seats is already allowed for in the models we all use to turn vote share into projected seats (because it happens every time and is therefore 'in the base'). Therefore it cannot be ignored as 'not mattering' when a pollster is trying to estimate actual national vote share from a set of stated voting intentions and expressed likelihood of voting statistics - to do so would be discounting the same factor twice.
I also think that on current polling, with Labour 3:1 behind on best leader and 2:1 behind on economic competence (and also behind on other big issues like immigration), there'd be a bigger differential than usual were the election now.0 -
Nicola Adams + Mo Farah + Tom Daley all strongish gold chancesCasino_Royale said:
There are at least two silvers for TeamGB to come, and a chance of at least two more golds I think.Moses_ said:Tyson look away now this post has posh flashing images
Scores on the doors for this morning
Team GB. 24. 22. 13
China 22. 18. 25
Well done to all concerned even those that made the finals and it did not turn out quite as they would have hoped.
China could get 3-4 more golds today and tomorrow, so it's going to be close.0 -
Taxing second and further properties at 90% of rental value p/a would free up housing stock for those who need it...AlastairMeeks said:
Why is this filed in the Education section of the BBC News website?Pulpstar said:
As usual, middle class renters get very worked up about this. Making being a landlord more difficult would be great for them, reducing house prices and making it easier for them to buy. Reducing the number of properties available to rent would be worse for poorer tenants, tending to drive up their rents. But this is all about subsidising the middle classes.
The only long term solution to the housing shortage is to build far more properties (which in turn would reduce the attractiveness of being a landlord). Time to start using the third dimension much more.
Property gives people a stake in society; it also improves the character of neighbourhoods. Both of which are great things.
In this case, we need both short and long-term solutions.
0 -
What's happened to the much vaunted supposed re-emergence of the LibDems? Ipsos-MORI's latest survey show them stuck on a lowly 7% and it seems likely that Two Taxi Tim's yellow team is destined to remain in the doldrums for the foreseeable future.0
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Properties being rented are being used by those who need them.Mortimer said:
Taxing second and further properties at 90% of rental value p/a would free up housing stock for those who need it...AlastairMeeks said:
Why is this filed in the Education section of the BBC News website?Pulpstar said:
As usual, middle class renters get very worked up about this. Making being a landlord more difficult would be great for them, reducing house prices and making it easier for them to buy. Reducing the number of properties available to rent would be worse for poorer tenants, tending to drive up their rents. But this is all about subsidising the middle classes.
The only long term solution to the housing shortage is to build far more properties (which in turn would reduce the attractiveness of being a landlord). Time to start using the third dimension much more.
Property gives people a stake in society; it also improves the character of neighbourhoods. Both of which are great things.
In this case, we need both short and long-term solutions.0 -
If you accept that Grant Maintained schools were academies under another name (which they were, although slightly different rules applied) he actually abolished the academy programme before shamefacedly bringing back a heavily watered down and geographically limited version when he realised that LEAs were a major problem and not the solution.david_herdson said:He didn't though, did he?
He expanded the private sector in the NHS; he increased the acadamies programme in education; he was hardline on law and order; he maintained the privatised industries other than when circumstances forced his government's hand (and added a few new privatisations); and he launched a pre-emptive war in Iraq.
There was little that could be defined at all as socialist that his government opted to do; still less that he rather than Brown opted to do.
In social and constitutional matters he was a liberal radical.0 -
Minimum wage. social chapter . Devolution.david_herdson said:
He didn't though, did he?Jonathan said:
If Tony Blair had renationalised everything and raise the red flag over no10 those same people on the left would still call him a Tory. They call everyone they don't like Tories. Doesn't mean they are right.CarlottaVance said:Jonathan said:
Loving the way the Tories edit their catastrophic defeats out of history. Orwell eat your heart out.david_herdson said:
It hasn't received a working majority since 1966.Mortimer said:
Fundamental misunderstanding of the increasingly Conservative demographic in this country; it is getting older and more Tory. Socialism was a fad; it doesn't work and isn't popular with western democracies. Socialism hasn't won since the 1970s...Jonathan said:Despite problems with the leader, I reckon Labours problems are superficial. What Labour needs to succeed is the confidence that flows from success. Chicken and egg perhaps.What Labour needs to do to is to bootstrap that process.
IMO that confidence is what keeps the Tories afloat. If things start going wrong, they could easily find themselves where Labour is today.
But we keen being told (by Labour members, no less) that Tony Blair was a Tory
So who is engaged in doublethink?
He expanded the private sector in the NHS; he increased the acadamies programme in education; he was hardline on law and order; he maintained the privatised industries other than when circumstances forced his government's hand (and added a few new privatisations); and he launched a pre-emptive war in Iraq.
There was little that could be defined at all as socialist that his government opted to do; still less that he rather than Brown opted to do.
In social and constitutional matters he was a liberal radical.0 -
If so, then it's no contest!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Scrapheap, probably get 2-3 golds from that list. May be down to silvers.
0 -
I think we must consider the possibility it is because the editor isn't very bright and pressed the wrong button.AlastairMeeks said:
Why is this filed in the Education section of the BBC News website?
I do hope they never serve on a Trident submarine (unless Jeremy Corbyn comes to power).0
