politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cyclefree on the perils of hubris

Thank you for another interesting contribution Miss Cyclefree.

That picture still pains me, why I chose it for this thread, I'll never know.

British sprinters about to start the quadrennial drop-the-baton competition.

Great article, very much along the lines of what I was thinking. I'd add that Remain had the issue of their leader, Dave, calling the EU crap in recent history and has previously vetoed crap EU measures. It meant the Remain side had to accept the basic Eurosceptic argument of the EU being crap far too early and far too easily. After that it was too hard to change enough people's minds to sell a positive vision of the EU. It rang hollow for too many people and, as you point out, the positives (four freedoms) were either seen as negative by too many people or accepted as having drawbacks by the remain side.

'This twit is precisely the kind of Remainer who gives Remainiacs a bad name. He is desperate for everything to collapse. And good news is discounted, or explained away. Any bad news is eagerly seized on as total vindication. Wanker. '

What amazes me is how this complete garbage gets past the editors. Same with so much stuff I read on newspaper websites. Are they that short of people who can write balanced copy?

Charles said:

@MaxPB FPT

The problem with pennies and steamrollers is that one day you are going to get hit.

I would look for equities that behave like debt - MediX or Assura , for instance.

I'm looking for at least 10% with a steamroller about

Charles said:

@JosiasJessop FPT

I try to be transparent where I have differentiated insight so people can judge for themselves. If you'd rather I wasn't then I won't be. But "friends" is often a euphemism that covers all sorts of different relationships.

I didn't mean it in any way other than how it was written.

But your evidence, so far, is rather weak. Again, documentation would be the best way of sorting it. I'd expect a project with any public funding would have oodles of it.

Charles said:

@MaxPB FPT

The problem with pennies and steamrollers is that one day you are going to get hit.

I would look for equities that behave like debt - MediX or Assura , for instance.

I know a chap who invested in Greek debt when it was at eye watering rates, he made out like a bandit and was up significantly on the whole lot even after the soft defaults.

Brownlee brothers giving it max power. Hopefully not doing too much too soon.

FPT: Mr. F, never read anything by Plato (the elder chap, not our own Miss Plato). I think his policy of executing atheists is not an endearing one.

Of the five points above, how many of them is Hillary getting wrong in the US at the moment. By my count at least four.

Ben Shapiro, former Breitbart editor, calls Donald Trump a "turd tornado" (start at 1.48)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-fanAsrY_s#t=1m48s

Is there a way to get the link to work here when it has "#t=1m48s" on the end of it?

Fine article (as always) but, if I may ask her, how did Cyclefree eventually vote on June 23rd? She appeared totally torn before leaving for hols.

Charles said:

@MaxPB FPT

The problem with pennies and steamrollers is that one day you are going to get hit.

I would look for equities that behave like debt - MediX or Assura , for instance.

You mean, the best that happens is you get your money back?

John_M said:

I make no secret of my admiration for Ms. Cyclefree's written skills . Persuasive article, as usual.</p>

You lounge lizard!

Mr. F, that sounds mental. And makes me want to buy the book

My Twitter lists [that's usually how I check things] are full of retweets of Trump's Mr. Brexit utterance, usually with a following comment about how racist and ruined the country/people within it are.

....

It was a 50/50 split [well, 52/48, but you know what I mean]. Do people really think the majority of their countrymen are bigots?

Try not to reply to such things as I prefer to keep off politics on Twitter.

The first pop video out of the DPRK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twQKilaHBro

Oof, both US and Dutch women out of the relay. Might be a sneaky silver on offer now.

Dromedary said:

John_M said:

I make no secret of my admiration for Ms. Cyclefree's written skills . Persuasive article, as usual.</p>

You lounge lizard!

I am not too old to crush on an intelligent, eloquent woman, it's the 21st century equivalent of courtly love .

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

@MaxPB FPT

The problem with pennies and steamrollers is that one day you are going to get hit.

I would look for equities that behave like debt - MediX or Assura , for instance.

I know a chap who invested in Greek debt when it was at eye watering rates, he made out like a bandit and was up significantly on the whole lot even after the soft defaults.

Sure. For people with a high risk tolerance there is always money to be made. But it's never a sure bet - which is how your recommendation came across.

Mr. Eagles, fine picture choice for Corbyn too.

Mr. 1000, only watched the first half-minute or so. Worth reminding people that North Korea has actual concentration camps.

Dialogue's a good thing, but when nuclear missiles are being developed I'm uncertain whether an inaugural pop video is the wisest move.

taffys said:

'This twit is precisely the kind of Remainer who gives Remainiacs a bad name. He is desperate for everything to collapse. And good news is discounted, or explained away. Any bad news is eagerly seized on as total vindication. Wanker. '

What amazes me is how this complete garbage gets past the editors. Same with so much stuff I read on newspaper websites. Are they that short of people who can write balanced copy?

Probably down to money, Mr. Taffys. Newspapers don't have a lot of it these days and so can't afford to employ good journalists anymore. For example, someone posted on here a while back that the average age of journalists at the Economist was 24. Much of the copy in the so-called quality papers these days is just rehashed press-releases accompanied by op-ed pieces from a few well paid people.

What gets right up-my nose is the fact that there is seems to be no sub-editing done. Nobody seems to read the the stories to check that they are coherent and grammatically correct before they are published. That and the fact, with the Telegraph at least, the headline is frequently misleading.

As, Miss Plato, says we pay for this. I wouldn't but I fear divorce would follow if I deprived Herself of her crossword.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

@MaxPB FPT

The problem with pennies and steamrollers is that one day you are going to get hit.

I would look for equities that behave like debt - MediX or Assura , for instance.

You mean, the best that happens is you get your money back?

We did very well playing an equity mandate that behaved like a debt portfolio.... my foundation's fund - which far smarter people than I invest - has equity upside, debt downside and a 4.5% cash yield thanks to canny stock selection.

Wow, the British men got the baton round!
Both teams in the final, with the British women in with a great chance of a medal - they're probably second favourites behind the excellent Jamaicans.

perdix said:

The main Project Fear Campaign was by Vote Leave and UKIP - Project Fear of Mass Immigration was the one which tipped the balance.

It's hardly Project Fear given net migration reached 651k in the last two years. Or is there some other definition of 'mass immigration' of which I am unaware? What would constitute 'mass immigration' in your world?

Sean_F said:

WRT Corbyn, it's not just the economy. It's Defence, Immigration, terrorism, where he's on the wrong side of public opinion. And, his Labour opponents are on the wrong side of public opinion over the EU.

Apart from that, Labour are in touch, though.

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

@MaxPB FPT

The problem with pennies and steamrollers is that one day you are going to get hit.

I would look for equities that behave like debt - MediX or Assura , for instance.

You mean, the best that happens is you get your money back?

We did very well playing an equity mandate that behaved like a debt portfolio.... my foundation's fund - which far smarter people than I invest - has equity upside, debt downside and a 4.5% cash yield thanks to canny stock selection.

I'm just kidding around.
When I meet pension fund trustees I always ask them how much they have in government bonds, aka "return free risk".

david_herdson said:

It's a good article from Cyclefree but I take issue about the election if Corbyn remains in charge of Labour. "The economy, stupid", isn't quite right. What people really want is security, of which a sound economy forms a large part. But cultural, physical and political security also matters, which is why Remain were able to win. It's also why Labour can't win in 2020 with Corbyn in charge: because he is on the wrong side of all of those questions with the possible exception of physical security as applied to health. Someone like him cannot win unless the population feels it has nothing to lose by going down that route - and there isn't time for that to happen (and even then, I suspect that it wouldn't be to the far left that the country would necessarily turn).

Yes, all else being equal it's the economy stupid, but all other things are not equal.

People do feel more physically, culturally and politically insecure than they did in the late 20th Century.

Trying to think of other elections where this has had an effect.. Possibly 1970 (immigration control) and perhaps added a bit in 1983 (physical security, although to be honest Labour failed on the other tests as well) and in 1997 the economy was doing so well and Blair seemed so middle class it was largely discounted as an issue.

John_M said:

I wonder how many people have read the Five President's report?

About three of them.

PlatoSaid said:

SquareRoot said:

PlatoSaid said:

More on TeamGB in triathlon - they've wiped every surface with disinfectant daily in training camp, taken their own nutritionist/cooks and used antibacterials all over to make sure they never got sick.

That's how to do it. Last time one of them got sick.

That's ridiculous. If its prolonged.. that's how they will get sick because their bodies are not exposed to bacteria..

Rubbish - you end up with a very robust constitution from playing in dirt, eating food dropped on the floor and having the windows open as a kid. I speak from experience

Going abroad and zapping every bug stops you getting caught by an alien lifeform. Along with not drinking the water or brushing your teeth with it.

If I'd the foresight - I'd follow TeamGB's tactics to avoid a day or two of squits. Took me almost three weeks to be struck down in rural Morocco to get caught.

Indeed, long term you want your immune system exposed to antigens. Short-term to preserve your health for a sporting event, kill all the bugs and only drink bottled water (including for brushing teeth) and canned food.

Despite a well-exposed immune system, Pakistan is batting 1.00* against my immune system (* apologies for baseball stat reference).

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

@MaxPB FPT

The problem with pennies and steamrollers is that one day you are going to get hit.

I would look for equities that behave like debt - MediX or Assura , for instance.

You mean, the best that happens is you get your money back?

We did very well playing an equity mandate that behaved like a debt portfolio.... my foundation's fund - which far smarter people than I invest - has equity upside, debt downside and a 4.5% cash yield thanks to canny stock selection.

I'm just kidding around.
When I meet pension fund trustees I always ask them how much they have in government bonds, aka "return free risk".

Isn't there some rule these days that pension funds must keep a certain percentage in gilts? I thought that was the main reason why so many of them are in trouble.

rcs1000 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

When I meet pension fund trustees I always ask them how much they have in government bonds, aka "return free risk".

They haven't been return-free over the last few years, though.

They're return free now.

Many are value destroying at the moment. Hopefully the Fed will fire the starter gun again and drag the world out of this odd situation.

Richard_Nabavi said:

I don't think Theresa May is the kind of person who is likely to succumb to hubris, nor can she and her ministers be in any doubt as to the massive challenges they face. Admittedly Labour seem almost completely irrelevant to the political debate at the moment, but that's a different point.

She - personally - may not be. But the three Brexit Ministers are, I think, inclined to this. And the minute they start making decisions and the rest of the EU doesn't play ball then what? Without an opposition to keep the Tories on their toes there is a risk that they will assume that they can get away with pretty much anything and that, when push comes to shove, the voters will look at Labour and go "no, thank you".

More likely than not, I grant you. But were I PM I wouldn't plan my strategy on that basis.

Politicians of all parties have underestimated the public for too long now. The referendum should have woken them up. Lots of people - and not just the Northern WWC - are dissatisfied with what has been a pretty piss poor political class for some time now and with an economy which looks a bit too much like Richistan in the South East and Mostly-Standing-Still everywhere else. I'm not at all sure the political parties have really got this.

@MTimT

"... only drink bottled water (including for brushing teeth) ..."

When I first went out East my step father, who had been out during WW2, advised saving some of my morning tea for brushing my teeth. Later when I married I found out that my father-in-law, whenever in a country in which he thought the water might be unreliable, used brandy for the same purpose.

Brushing one's teeth in brandy is an acquired taste but it is a lot better than having one's bowels turn to water.

Sean_F said:

PlatoSaid said:

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. F, never read anything by Plato (the elder chap, not our own Miss Plato). I think his policy of executing atheists is not an endearing one.

Plato's Republic would not have been a very nice place to live in. It was like a more hardline version of Sparta.

Indeed - and Sparta wasn't anyone's idea of a picnic. I was always very curious about a well known 70s brand of chocolate box named after them. They were horrible - all hard centres, but stuck around for yrs. The sort of gift to make your heart sink.

http://www.yorkmix.com/food-drink/16-pictures-of-wonderful-old-terrys-chocolate-boxes-do-you-remember-any-of-them/

I enjoy reading about Sparta, but very much doubt that I would have enjoyed living there. The upbringing of Spartan youths sounds very much like going to Shrewsbury School in the 1970's (lots of flogging, compulsory homosexuality, lots of sports, an absence of intellectual pursuits).

When I look back on it, there were so many things wrong with my time at boarding school: the ex-RAF WWII headmaster using the cane right up until the day it was banned in private schools, in 1990, the early morning cold showers, dormitory wide group punishments for certain misdemeanours, referring to each other by surname only (we were nine years old), the insufficient and bad food, the placing of sporting process above academic excellence, the belief that girls were a malign influence, encouraging the settling of disputes by confrontation rather than diffusing situations and reason, and the overarching belief that all of the above was 'character building'.

I'm glad those days are gone.

Cyclefree said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I don't think Theresa May is the kind of person who is likely to succumb to hubris, nor can she and her ministers be in any doubt as to the massive challenges they face. Admittedly Labour seem almost completely irrelevant to the political debate at the moment, but that's a different point.

She - personally - may not be. But the three Brexit Ministers are, I think, inclined to this. And the minute they start making decisions and the rest of the EU doesn't play ball then what? Without an opposition to keep the Tories on their toes there is a risk that they will assume that they can get away with pretty much anything and that, when push comes to shove, the voters will look at Labour and go "no, thank you".

More likely than not, I grant you. But were I PM I wouldn't plan my strategy on that basis.

Politicians of all parties have underestimated the public for too long now. The referendum should have woken them up. Lots of people - and not just the Northern WWC - are dissatisfied with what has been a pretty piss poor political class for some time now and with an economy which looks a bit too much like Richistan in the South East and Mostly-Standing-Still everywhere else. I'm not at all sure the political parties have really got this.

It's not even that good. Most areas have gone backwards relative to Londonistan, including the South East.

https://twitter.com/mcdonnelljp/status/765174072414179328

Yarrrrkshire lads just out on a run on the Yorkshire moors....

Sean_F said:

PlatoSaid said:

Sean_F said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Mr. F, never read anything by Plato (the elder chap, not our own Miss Plato). I think his policy of executing atheists is not an endearing one.

Plato's Republic would not have been a very nice place to live in. It was like a more hardline version of Sparta.

Indeed - and Sparta wasn't anyone's idea of a picnic. I was always very curious about a well known 70s brand of chocolate box named after them. They were horrible - all hard centres, but stuck around for yrs. The sort of gift to make your heart sink.

http://www.yorkmix.com/food-drink/16-pictures-of-wonderful-old-terrys-chocolate-boxes-do-you-remember-any-of-them/

I enjoy reading about Sparta, but very much doubt that I would have enjoyed living there. The upbringing of Spartan youths sounds very much like going to Shrewsbury School in the 1970's (lots of flogging, compulsory homosexuality, lots of sports, an absence of intellectual pursuits).

Great website of old choc boxes. I vaguely remember the Bridge mints.

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

@MaxPB FPT

The problem with pennies and steamrollers is that one day you are going to get hit.

I would look for equities that behave like debt - MediX or Assura , for instance.

I know a chap who invested in Greek debt when it was at eye watering rates, he made out like a bandit and was up significantly on the whole lot even after the soft defaults.

Sure. For people with a high risk tolerance there is always money to be made. But it's never a sure bet - which is how your recommendation came across.

Back then it wasn't a sure bet. In today's climate it is a sure bet, the ECB are already pumping €80bn per month into EMU debt, that is probably going to increase which means bond prices will go up, over the long haul the risk of bankruptcy has to be close to nil, obviously the 3% yield reflects that, but in a world of negative rates, 3% guaranteed is pretty solid.

And at some point the yield curve will normalise.

So the bet you are making is that you can anticipate correctly when the market will change it's mind on the likelihood of that happening.

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

@MaxPB FPT

The problem with pennies and steamrollers is that one day you are going to get hit.

I would look for equities that behave like debt - MediX or Assura , for instance.

You mean, the best that happens is you get your money back?

We did very well playing an equity mandate that behaved like a debt portfolio.... my foundation's fund - which far smarter people than I invest - has equity upside, debt downside and a 4.5% cash yield thanks to canny stock selection.

I'm just kidding around.
When I meet pension fund trustees I always ask them how much they have in government bonds, aka "return free risk".

To be fair, we did have some money in US Treasuries and Singapore government debt (plus some Chuffies) ahead of Brexit

Shut up commentators....

rcs1000 said:

DeClare said:

Remain lost the argument because they failed to sell the EU in a positive light, the EU already has a terrible press, for example they issue 'directives' the leaders are unappealing foreigners, home come a Briton is never allowed to become President of the EU when we were the second largest country in it? and they are always reputed to be wasteful, undemocratic and autocratic.
What the Remain side should have done is give us good reasons to stay in the EU, tell us what the EU is going to do for us in the future etc. Instead all they did is issue scare stories and even when these were roundly ridiculed, they continued regardless.
Imagine a soap powder company advertising it's product not by saying how good it is but by suggesting that using anybody else's will leave your clothes dirty and make you a smelly tramp. Such a campaign would be doomed to ridicule and failure and it's the same with politics.

Ummm. Roy Jenkins was the leader in the early 80s wasn't he?

Yes to 1981. But if there had been a Brit in one of the "Presidents" roles it might have helped make the EU look less foreign and remote. What if Blair had become one? Was that a key mistake of the EU?