Never mind isolation. Why does the letter have random capitalisation and break overdue into two words? Are standards so low at Michael Gove's free schools or is this a hoax?
The Owen Jones piece is pretty damning stuff and well worth a read and even more so coming from a previously impeccable Corbynite source who will now be denounced as a Blairite stooge. Unfortunately its circulation so far looks to be pretty limited - the links from the likes of the Huffington Post and this site aren't enough. It's not exactly complimentary to the Guardian so I doubt if they will run it. It will need to be pretty widely quoted from in order to reach a lot of Labour members with a vote. Perhaps Labour MPs writing to their constitutency members will do so.
He must have deliberately done that to keep its circulation to those that need to hear, the people who scour social media for this kind of thing, not the general audience who he talks about the leadership failing to address. Quite clever...
A paper like The Times would have paid handsomely for that.
''Leavers have always understood there would be turbulence from Brexit whilst dismissing the fantasy peddled by Remain of never-ending apple pie and ice cream as they claimed that staying in the Euro Mini Mart was the abolition of boom and bust.''
Oh come on Mr Chestnut, the remainers were half right.
'Boom' in the European context has certainly been abolished indefinitely.
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
People who are interested in politics tend to view history through the lens of governments, administrations and the personalities involved.
While I wouldn't deny the impact of the blessed Margaret, she was unlucky in that de-industrialisation happened on her watch - it was inevitable. She was lucky in that the IT revolution more than compensated for it in terms of the broader economy.
Interestingly manufacturing output was a slightly higher when Mrs. Thatcher left office than it was when she arrived. Employment in manufacturing however was very much lower and that is what people seem to concentrate on. The productivity gain was quite startling though, and quite the reverse of what we have seen in recent years.
There is an interesting paper on UK de-industrialisation here:
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I hope that the fallout from Brexit won't be too bad, I'm not talking anything down. I realise that one month's figures are just a straw in the wind, maybe things will improve. But you Leavers won and to now blame bad consequences on Remainers is adding insult to injury.
It's the Gordon Brown circa 2008 attack - the economy would have been fine if only the nasty Tories hadn't been talking it down.
Still Liam Fox has hired three civil servants in the US to man convention booths so all our problems are over. A shame the jobs are going to US nationals rather than UK citizens.
1. It is cheaper to go for a local hire - no relocation expenses, no in-post expenses and no housing costs 2. If the aim is to sell UK plc to US companies, or to negotiate a trade deal with the US, recruiting people who have inside knowledge of the US system is a good idea.
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Again I agree. As a grim-dark Brexiteer, I think a technical recession is possible, if not yet probable. In the short term it's as much about sentiment as anything else.
The terrible US Q2 GDP numbers are probably more worrying for the global outlook - the fact of Brexit is now old news.
The Owen Jones piece is pretty damning stuff and well worth a read and even more so coming from a previously impeccable Corbynite source who will now be denounced as a Blairite stooge. Unfortunately its circulation so far looks to be pretty limited - the links from the likes of the Huffington Post and this site aren't enough. It's not exactly complimentary to the Guardian so I doubt if they will run it. It will need to be pretty widely quoted from in order to reach a lot of Labour members with a vote. Perhaps Labour MPs writing to their constitutency members will do so.
It is good - but this gave me a wry smile:
But first, it has become increasingly common in politics to reduce disagreements to bad faith. Rather than accepting somebody has a different perspective because, well, that’s what they think, you look for an ulterior motive instead.
That is precisely what Labour have been doing to the Tories for years - the Tories do things because they are bad people.....
Guido First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
As I said, I think we're headong for about 0.2-0.4% growth in the next quarter based on the sugar rush of currency depreciation.
There is little evidence that the pounds decline will be of any real benefit. The same lack of depreciation stimulus was seen after the 2008 recession. The UK manufacturing economy isn't a low margin, low skilled one where small currency depreciations make a big difference.
"Regarding the further decline in manufacturing output, Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said today:
.... although exporters did report a boost from the weaker pound.
However, the improvement in exports was less marked than previously estimated, blamed in part on sluggish overseas demand. The downside of the currency was an upsurge in input price inflation to a five-year high on the back of rising import costs.
David Noble, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, said this rise will be particularly painful for smaller businesses:
Purchasing prices rose at levels not seen for half a decade, with SMEs bearing the brunt of rising input prices while larger corporates were more able to cope. And though export orders rose for the second month in response to the weaker pound, this was not enough to sustain the sector or make up any shortfall from the sluggish domestic market.
Mr Noble said hiring deteriorated at the sharpest rate in three-and-a-half years, “as businesses chose redundancy and restructuring to secure themselves against more possible bad news ahead.”
That's only in one sector, a sector which has long lead times as pointed out by surbiton. Hospitality benefited by £5bn last time we had weak Sterling, it could be an even larger boom this time.
The evidence is there. Read Bootle in the Telegraph this morning.
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.
The BoE are not reducing rates for fun ! Even holiday companies will be in trouble. Property companies etc. even with current mortgage rates. People can effectively borrow virtually free. Only triple lock pensioners will be well off. Nice expensive bribes for votes !
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Again I agree. As a grim-dark Brexiteer, I think a technical recession is possible, if not yet probable. In the short term it's as much about sentiment as anything else.
The terrible US Q2 GDP numbers are probably more worrying for the global outlook - the fact of Brexit is now old news.
Indeed, the anaemic growth in the US is of much greater concern than Brexit. I'm sure Obama is trying to find some tenuous link to Brexit for his weak economy though.
People who are interested in politics tend to view history through the lens of governments, administrations and the personalities involved.
While I wouldn't deny the impact of the blessed Margaret, she was unlucky in that de-industrialisation happened on her watch - it was inevitable. She was lucky in that the IT revolution more than compensated for it in terms of the broader economy.
Interestingly manufacturing output was a slightly higher when Mrs. Thatcher left office than it was when she arrived. Employment in manufacturing however was very much lower and that is what people seem to concentrate on. The productivity gain was quite startling though, and quite the reverse of what we have seen in recent years.
There is an interesting paper on UK de-industrialisation here:
Thank you Mr Llama. That slight steepening of the decline in figure 4B is where the damage was done to Thatcher's reputation.
I live between the Valleys and the Forest, both victims of that decline. The real tragedy is that worker mobility in these areas is so weak. People are waiting for 'their' jobs to come back, decades later. It's improved in recent years, but that leads to a new challenge - the greying of the post-industrial areas.
The Owen Jones piece is pretty damning stuff and well worth a read and even more so coming from a previously impeccable Corbynite source who will now be denounced as a Blairite stooge. Unfortunately its circulation so far looks to be pretty limited - the links from the likes of the Huffington Post and this site aren't enough. It's not exactly complimentary to the Guardian so I doubt if they will run it. It will need to be pretty widely quoted from in order to reach a lot of Labour members with a vote. Perhaps Labour MPs writing to their constitutency members will do so.
There is some very valid criticism from Owen Jones, what is puzzling is the timing of it. He does not actually openly advocate that members should vote for Owen Smith and he must know that if Smith were to win then the chances of Labour MP's allowing another left wing MP on the ballot for the next few decades is highly unlikely.
If he had published his article after Corbyn had won the leadership election, then it could have been taken as consructive criticism and perhaps could have been used to make a case for Jones' own preference of Clive Lewis taking over in 2018. However, publishing it in the middle of this election is only going to provide ammunition for Owen Smth, his supporters and the anti-Corbyn media.
OT. A russian helicopter coming back from delivering aid to Aleppo in Syria has been shot down. There's already footage out on twitter of men literally dancing on the dead bodies of the airmen. Dont look for it.
If Putin wanted an excuse for total war, he now has it.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I hope that the fallout from Brexit won't be too bad, I'm not talking anything down. I realise that one month's figures are just a straw in the wind, maybe things will improve. But you Leavers won and to now blame bad consequences on Remainers is adding insult to injury.
It's the Gordon Brown circa 2008 attack - the economy would have been fine if only the nasty Tories hadn't been talking it down.
Still Liam Fox has hired three civil servants in the US to man convention booths so all our problems are over. A shame the jobs are going to US nationals rather than UK citizens.
1. It is cheaper to go for a local hire - no relocation expenses, no in-post expenses and no housing costs 2. If the aim is to sell UK plc to US companies, or to negotiate a trade deal with the US, recruiting people who have inside knowledge of the US system is a good idea.
Of course you are quite right about the advantages of employing US based workers - my amusement is more the desperation of Liam Fox in press releasing the employment of three people and that Brexit was meant to be about making the UK great again rather than employing yet more foreigners.
'Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.'
Oh dear out comes the drama queen, end of the world and all that good stuff.
It isn't helpful if one faction just folds its arms and the other faction denies reality.
The only way to overcome this is to start by creating as much consensus as possible on what our fundamental national interests are.
If either side starts from the assumption that maximising the GDP of UK Plc over the medium and long term is the overriding concern then we will continue to have a dialogue of the deaf.
Interesting. What are our fundamental national interests,in your view, in terms of choices we can make for the post-Brexit settlement?
As an ardent Remainer I'm still trying to reconcile my views with the options we have available.
I believe our interest in stability and prosperity in our near abroad means that we need to be able to play a positive political role in Europe. The challenge is coming up with a framework that allows that to happen without us being members. I don't think this can be satisfied by any of the existing off-the-shelf deals such as standard EEA membership so we need to aim for something as close to a partnership of equals as reality allows - possibly something that could act as a model for a future deal between the EU and Russia when we move beyond the Putin era.
As much as I find the concept of the Anglosphere a pretension, and am embarrassed for people like Hannan who cringingly talk about our American 'cousins', I do recognise that our relative loss of prestige within the English speaking world has been one of the factors behind our growing identity crisis. In decades past, cultural figures in places like Australia would always seek out validation in the UK as a sign that they deserved to be taken seriously back home. Now things have changed, and we're no longer even sure ourselves of what we stand for. We need to find out.
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Again I agree. As a grim-dark Brexiteer, I think a technical recession is possible, if not yet probable. In the short term it's as much about sentiment as anything else.
The terrible US Q2 GDP numbers are probably more worrying for the global outlook - the fact of Brexit is now old news.
When was the last time pure 'sentiment' led to a recession, in any industrialised country?
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I hope that the fallout from Brexit won't be too bad, I'm not talking anything down. I realise that one month's figures are just a straw in the wind, maybe things will improve. But you Leavers won and to now blame bad consequences on Remainers is adding insult to injury.
The then chancellor (a remainer) stood up and gave doom and gloom and emergency budgets. Can't get much higher than that.
Well - on here you were the first to post the figures and mention recession - as far as I can see no-one else has. Maybe you should be taking your own advice
On July 22nd I counted 3 articles and a few more live blog saying that we've entered a recession because of the composite preliminary indicators. The BBC were calling a 10 point fall in the FTSE 100 a dramatic fall or something along those lines just now. It's a huge overreaction and I hope we get some sensible reporting sooner rathet than later.
Indeed. The media Remainers are the problem rather than commenters on blogs like this. When they lead the main news headlines with overblown stories of doom, it can and does affect general sentiment in the country. They are acting as if they want to talk us into a recession to vindicate their stance on the referendum.
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Again I agree. As a grim-dark Brexiteer, I think a technical recession is possible, if not yet probable. In the short term it's as much about sentiment as anything else.
The terrible US Q2 GDP numbers are probably more worrying for the global outlook - the fact of Brexit is now old news.
When was the last time pure 'sentiment' led to a recession, in any industrialised country?
I can't answer that as it is very difficult to tease out subjective factors from economic fundamentals.
If you look at the Markit numbers, they've been negative before without an ensuing recession (e.g. 2003, 2004/5, 2011/12) as we're not a manufacturing economy.
However, if you look at the reactions on this board, we can see them potentially having an effect on consumers. I doubt young Surbiton will be lashing out on a new car or kitchen any time soon .
'Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.'
Oh dear out comes the drama queen, end of the world and all that good stuff.
The 0.25% appears to be the default assumption. Personally I would not be surprised if it didn't happen, at least soon.
Never mind isolation. Why does the letter have random capitalisation and break overdue into two words? Are standards so low at Michael Gove's free schools or is this a hoax?
Lack of solitary punishment Sandwiches during the letter writer's education I'll be bound.
The Owen Jones piece is pretty damning stuff and well worth a read and even more so coming from a previously impeccable Corbynite source who will now be denounced as a Blairite stooge. Unfortunately its circulation so far looks to be pretty limited - the links from the likes of the Huffington Post and this site aren't enough. It's not exactly complimentary to the Guardian so I doubt if they will run it. It will need to be pretty widely quoted from in order to reach a lot of Labour members with a vote. Perhaps Labour MPs writing to their constitutency members will do so.
There is some very valid criticism from Owen Jones, what is puzzling is the timing of it. He does not actually openly advocate that members should vote for Owen Smith and he must know that if Smith were to win then the chances of Labour MP's allowing another left wing MP on the ballot for the next few decades is highly unlikely.
If he had published his article after Corbyn had won the leadership election, then it could have been taken as consructive criticism and perhaps could have been used to make a case for Jones' own preference of Clive Lewis taking over in 2018. However, publishing it in the middle of this election is only going to provide ammunition for Owen Smth, his supporters and the anti-Corbyn media.
Particularly since he mostly asks questions without offering much by way of suggested answers.
First the LibDems were accused of being Tories. Then the Blairite MPs, including some who had been doing the prior accusing, found themselves as (alleged) Tories. Next the soft left. Now even Owen Jones is a Tory. Who'd have thought!
First the LibDems were accused of being Tories. Then the Blairite MPs, including some who had been doing the prior accusing, found themselves as (alleged) Tories. Next the soft left. Now even Owen Jones is a Tory. Who'd have thought!
At least it simplifies things for people who used to rant about the LibLabCon one party state. They can just call them all Tories.
'Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.'
Oh dear out comes the drama queen, end of the world and all that good stuff.
One imagines Surby swooned across a back of cashiers desk , hand held up to brow Shakespearean style the other clasping high in a crippled wizened hand a used 50 euro note.......
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.
The BoE are not reducing rates for fun ! Even holiday companies will be in trouble. Property companies etc. even with current mortgage rates. People can effectively borrow virtually free. Only triple lock pensioners will be well off. Nice expensive bribes for votes !
I can understand Remainers being desperately disappointed by the referendum result. I can understand thinking it's a mistake. I can understand begrudgingly acknowledging it, whilst arguing for the lightest Brexit possible that keeps the UK as close to the EU as possible.
What I can't understand is cheering any piece of negative data or setback, and inviting others to own it whilst doing nothing themselves, in a desperate desire to be vindicated.
The Owen Jones piece is pretty damning stuff and well worth a read and even more so coming from a previously impeccable Corbynite source who will now be denounced as a Blairite stooge. Unfortunately its circulation so far looks to be pretty limited - the links from the likes of the Huffington Post and this site aren't enough. It's not exactly complimentary to the Guardian so I doubt if they will run it. It will need to be pretty widely quoted from in order to reach a lot of Labour members with a vote. Perhaps Labour MPs writing to their constitutency members will do so.
There is some very valid criticism from Owen Jones, what is puzzling is the timing of it. He does not actually openly advocate that members should vote for Owen Smith and he must know that if Smith were to win then the chances of Labour MP's allowing another left wing MP on the ballot for the next few decades is highly unlikely.
If he had published his article after Corbyn had won the leadership election, then it could have been taken as consructive criticism and perhaps could have been used to make a case for Jones' own preference of Clive Lewis taking over in 2018. However, publishing it in the middle of this election is only going to provide ammunition for Owen Smth, his supporters and the anti-Corbyn media.
Particularly since he mostly asks questions without offering much by way of suggested answers.
First the LibDems were accused of being Tories. Then the Blairite MPs, including some who had been doing the prior accusing, found themselves as (alleged) Tories. Next the soft left. Now even Owen Jones is a Tory. Who'd have thought!
The Owen Jones piece is pretty damning stuff and well worth a read and even more so coming from a previously impeccable Corbynite source who will now be denounced as a Blairite stooge. Unfortunately its circulation so far looks to be pretty limited - the links from the likes of the Huffington Post and this site aren't enough. It's not exactly complimentary to the Guardian so I doubt if they will run it. It will need to be pretty widely quoted from in order to reach a lot of Labour members with a vote. Perhaps Labour MPs writing to their constitutency members will do so.
It is good - but this gave me a wry smile:
But first, it has become increasingly common in politics to reduce disagreements to bad faith. Rather than accepting somebody has a different perspective because, well, that’s what they think, you look for an ulterior motive instead.
That is precisely what Labour have been doing to the Tories for years - the Tories do things because they are bad people.....
And Labour do things because they hate the UK, its history and the WWC; which makes them bad people too, doesn't it?
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Again I agree. As a grim-dark Brexiteer, I think a technical recession is possible, if not yet probable. In the short term it's as much about sentiment as anything else.
The terrible US Q2 GDP numbers are probably more worrying for the global outlook - the fact of Brexit is now old news.
When was the last time pure 'sentiment' led to a recession, in any industrialised country?
We came close in 2010/11. The Netherlands actually did it in 2012.
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.
The BoE are not reducing rates for fun ! Even holiday companies will be in trouble. Property companies etc. even with current mortgage rates. People can effectively borrow virtually free. Only triple lock pensioners will be well off. Nice expensive bribes for votes !
I can understand Remainers being desperately disappointed by the referendum result. I can understand thinking it's a mistake. I can understand begrudgingly acknowledging it, whilst arguing for the lightest Brexit possible that keeps the UK as close to the EU as possible.
What I can't understand is cheering any piece of negative data or setback, and inviting others to own it whilst doing nothing themselves, in a desperate desire to be vindicated.
Read the FT and you'll see the cheerleading of negative data everyday. Again, I feel vindicated in voting to leave whenever the FT or Economist squeals.
People who are interested in politics tend to view history through the lens of governments, administrations and the personalities involved.
While I wouldn't deny the impact of the blessed Margaret, she was unlucky in that de-industrialisation happened on her watch - it was inevitable. She was lucky in that the IT revolution more than compensated for it in terms of the broader economy.
Interestingly manufacturing output was a slightly higher when Mrs. Thatcher left office than it was when she arrived. Employment in manufacturing however was very much lower and that is what people seem to concentrate on. The productivity gain was quite startling though, and quite the reverse of what we have seen in recent years.
There is an interesting paper on UK de-industrialisation here:
Thank you Mr Llama. That slight steepening of the decline in figure 4B is where the damage was done to Thatcher's reputation.
I live between the Valleys and the Forest, both victims of that decline. The real tragedy is that worker mobility in these areas is so weak. People are waiting for 'their' jobs to come back, decades later. It's improved in recent years, but that leads to a new challenge - the greying of the post-industrial areas.
Your welcome, Mr. M, and I agree with what you say re figure 4B and Mrs. Thatcher. However, nobody seems to get excited about the equally precipitous decline between 1999 and 2007. I wonder why.
Now, when you say you live between the Valleys and the Forest? Are we talking about South Wales? If so then I will say I have never been to a place so devoid of hope. I remember some years ago someone on here posting that there were people who still expected the coal mines to re-open, I thought he was being a bit over the top until four years or so ago a contact took me down to Swansea and I perforce spent some time in the area. It was clear that public money had been squirted around in a very liberal fashion (lots of new building, lots of new roads), but far too many of the people seemed soul-dead. It was worse than Burgess Hill on a wet Wednesday afternoon. It seemed that all the people with some get-up and go had already got up and gone.
However, I did see some shreds of hope. On my second trip down I stayed in a boutique type hotel in The Mumbles. The staff were local, the service was fantastic, and the food excellent. Some are still trying and I hope they succeed.
We don't "all know" May is enjoying a honeymoon. We *think* that she is. Important distinction.
16 point lead in ICM, 12 in YouGov. I'd say there is a honeymoon A shame she ruled out a GE. but it just wouldn't be cricket in the middle of Labour's leadership election.
It's more than that - the Conservatives would have expected to have been well behind by now in this parliament. Their position now is around 20% relative to Labour than it was in the last parliament, and they still went on to win a majority from that. Meanwhile we are saddled with a delusional Labour leader who claims that Labour is in a position to win a snap general election and a large cult of followers engaging in groupthink who hang on his every word.
TheTories were not well behind at this stage of the 1959 and 1987 parliaments.
'Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.'
Oh dear out comes the drama queen, end of the world and all that good stuff.
One imagines Surby swooned across a back of cashiers desk , hand held up to brow Shakespearean style the other clasping high in a crippled wizened hand a used 50 euro note.......
The Owen Jones piece is pretty damning stuff and well worth a read and even more so coming from a previously impeccable Corbynite source who will now be denounced as a Blairite stooge. Unfortunately its circulation so far looks to be pretty limited - the links from the likes of the Huffington Post and this site aren't enough. It's not exactly complimentary to the Guardian so I doubt if they will run it. It will need to be pretty widely quoted from in order to reach a lot of Labour members with a vote. Perhaps Labour MPs writing to their constitutency members will do so.
There is some very valid criticism from Owen Jones, what is puzzling is the timing of it. He does not actually openly advocate that members should vote for Owen Smith and he must know that if Smith were to win then the chances of Labour MP's allowing another left wing MP on the ballot for the next few decades is highly unlikely.
If he had published his article after Corbyn had won the leadership election, then it could have been taken as consructive criticism and perhaps could have been used to make a case for Jones' own preference of Clive Lewis taking over in 2018. However, publishing it in the middle of this election is only going to provide ammunition for Owen Smth, his supporters and the anti-Corbyn media.
Particularly since he mostly asks questions without offering much by way of suggested answers.
Well Owen has seen the problems, but wether there are answers is another problem.
The main one is a fundamental one. The left can't win without compromise. Thats what lead to Blairism and New Labour.
Jones article seems to me to be one of grief that his desired way of changing the country will not and cannot happen. Not with Corbyn, and not without compromise.
Mr. Llama, people collectively recall perceptions over realities. That's why people think Canute was trying, in a serious way, to order the tide to stop.
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.
The BoE are not reducing rates for fun ! Even holiday companies will be in trouble. Property companies etc. even with current mortgage rates. People can effectively borrow virtually free. Only triple lock pensioners will be well off. Nice expensive bribes for votes !
I can understand Remainers being desperately disappointed by the referendum result. I can understand thinking it's a mistake. I can understand begrudgingly acknowledging it, whilst arguing for the lightest Brexit possible that keeps the UK as close to the EU as possible.
What I can't understand is cheering any piece of negative data or setback, and inviting others to own it whilst doing nothing themselves, in a desperate desire to be vindicated.
Almost, but not quite as dumb as pretending everything in the Brexit garden is lovely and there'll be muffins for tea, while ignoring every bit of economic data which confirms the pre -referendum predictions. There's something quite poignantly sad about one or two fanatical brexiters on here who are frantic that their dream might yet still be taken away from them - so they lash out at the enemy they defeated a few months ago just to make sure they're dead.
I am all for the advancement of Yorkshire, but I'm disgusted by the expansion of the Yorkshire Dales National Park into Lancashire without it being renamed "Dales National Park" or similar. For one thing, it's just silly. And for another thing, it is inaccurate. There will be signs saying "Welcome to the Yorkshire Dales" in Lancashire. Moreover it sets yet another horrible precedent for chunks of Yorkshire itself to be carved up at some bureaucrat's whim. "Humberside" was a monstrosity enough.
@TelePolitics: Jeremy Corbyn expected to win backing of 200,000-strong Communication Workers Union in Labour leadership contest https://t.co/IPZnDZcCrA
Mr. Ears, reminds me of the mayoral nonsense. Bits of (maybe the whole) of South Yorkshire will be muddled up with bits of Derbyshire and the Midlands, whereas the rest of Yorkshire will likely all have a single mayor.
'Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.'
Oh dear out comes the drama queen, end of the world and all that good stuff.
The 0.25% appears to be the default assumption. Personally I would not be surprised if it didn't happen, at least soon.
I half expect it but I really can't see what anyone gains by cutting it ( a drop of 0.25% isn't going to make any loans any cheaper now most banks have totally separated their interest rates from the BoE's base rate).. My viewpoint would be steady as she goes let's see how things look in September...
I am all for the advancement of Yorkshire, but I'm disgusted by the expansion of the Yorkshire Dales National Park into Lancashire without it being renamed "Dales National Park" or similar. For one thing, it's just silly. And for another thing, it is inaccurate. There will be signs saying "Welcome to the Yorkshire Dales" in Lancashire. Moreover it sets yet another horrible precedent for chunks of Yorkshire itself to be carved up at some bureaucrat's whim. "Humberside" was a monstrosity enough.
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
But I'm confused, its the worst for three years. That means it's not out of the ordinary at all. When three years is your base line...
The question is whether it's a one off blip. People were shocked by the referendum result but now are cool about it. Or whether it is part of a chronic trend where investment and optimism dries up as we work through the messy business of splitting up with our main trading partners.
Again I agree. As a grim-dark Brexiteer, I think a technical recession is possible, if not yet probable. In the short term it's as much about sentiment as anything else.
The terrible US Q2 GDP numbers are probably more worrying for the global outlook - the fact of Brexit is now old news.
When was the last time pure 'sentiment' led to a recession, in any industrialised country?
We came close in 2010/11. The Netherlands actually did it in 2012.
Evidence for 'pure sentiment' causing the Netherlands downturn, please?
There was a serious financial crisis in the Eurozone in 2011-12, you may recall. Several countries went into recession. The Eurozone as a whole went into recession and contracted by 0.3% in 2012. As a small trade-dependent economy it is not too surprising the Netherlands struggled then.
The UK, notably, did not go into recession - although there was plenty of press hysteria at the time about 'triple dips' etc, all the more ridiculous as there was not even a double-dip.
Let's also perhaps take a slightly broader view on the current available evidence for the UK, rather than focusing entirely on the PMI survey.
On the surveys:
The Lloyds bank business barometer for July showed a sharp recovery from the Brexit-vote induced slump seen in the late June survey.
The CBI industrial survey showed little change from June-July. I'm wary of this one, but nevertheless...
The EU Commision business & consumer surveys for the UK are not consistent with recession conditions either.
On the harder data:
There isn't much at all, though weekly John Lewis sales show no Brexit-related drop. Monetary data also suggests a solid picture ahead of the Brexit vote.
So as I posted a little while ago, the early evidence is patchy & noisy and provides scope for all kinds of partial readings. But the old canard about us 'talking ourselves into a recession' remains just that.
Have been busy/away for most of the last week so have missed quite a few threads.
Its a personality cult, and Corbyn is their God. Increasing number of "Labour Party" members who have no interest in the party, or respect for the movement and the century of struggle simply don't care about evidence. Or facts. Or sanity. Or winning power.
We've had several more pieces of evidence submitted. Blanchflower and Wren-Lewis give their post mortem on the economic platform. Get attacked. Owen Jones writes a massive missive from the perspective who was a Corbynite from before Corbyn was a thing, and they're denouncing him as another Tory.
CLPs can't meet. The party has banned us. But through the looking glass Momentum continue to meet. They even had a discussion at their last meeting specifically on campaign activity in our CLP. The CLP can't meet to plan such activity. They can. Because they are not party of the party, not under the edict of the NEC. And it gets worse.
As we know Momentum is legally "Jeremy for Labour Ltd" - not a party unit as defined by the rule book. But this business is running Jeremy's election bid. Its publicity has this imprint "Promoted by John McDonnell on behalf of Jeremy for Labour" - not the party. But lobbying the party on behalf of the leader/shadow chancellor. Using Party software and databases.
Myself and my neighbouring CLP secretary have separately reported dreams where crowds of angry protesters stand outside our houses with placards denouncing us. We feel under siege. And for what - to watch the Shiny Happy People, the True Believers put their God on his pedestal. And it doesn't matter who says what, they will not be distracted from their faith in Him.
Evidence is irrelevant Facts are irrelevant Votes are irrelevant You WILL be assimilated
People who are interested in politics tend to view history through the lens of governments, administrations and the personalities involved.
While I wouldn't deny the impact of the blessed Margaret, she was unlucky in that de-industrialisation happened on her watch - it was inevitable. She was lucky in that the IT revolution more than compensated for it in terms of the broader economy.
Interestingly manufacturing output was a slightly higher when Mrs. Thatcher left office than it was when she arrived. Employment in manufacturing however was very much lower and that is what people seem to concentrate on. The productivity gain was quite startling though, and quite the reverse of what we have seen in recent years.
There is an interesting paper on UK de-industrialisation here:
Thank you Mr Llama. That slight steepening of the decline in figure 4B is where the damage was done to Thatcher's reputation.
I live between the Valleys and the Forest, both victims of that decline. The real tragedy is that worker mobility in these areas is so weak. People are waiting for 'their' jobs to come back, decades later. It's improved in recent years, but that leads to a new challenge - the greying of the post-industrial areas.
Your welcome, Mr. M, and I agree with what you say re figure 4B and Mrs. Thatcher. However, nobody seems to get excited about the equally precipitous decline between 1999 and 2007. I wonder why.
Now, when you say you live between the Valleys and the Forest? Are we talking about South Wales?
However, I did see some shreds of hope. On my second trip down I stayed in a boutique type hotel in The Mumbles. The staff were local, the service was fantastic, and the food excellent. Some are still trying and I hope they succeed.
I live near Monmouth in the Wye Valley. It is, as you say, awful (though the Wye valley itself is beautiful). Monmouthshire itself is one of the richest counties in Wales (which automatically means it would be among the poorest areas of England were borders to shift).
Pontypool (to the west) and Coleford/Cinderford (to the east) are all examples of that hopelessness. They're anti-Londons. Pretty much anyone with drive or talent leaves for greener fields. We do have some very good micro-businesses locally, but that's more so the owners and their few employees can enjoy the best of rural life - they would probably do far better elsewhere, in economic terms.
I am all for the advancement of Yorkshire, but I'm disgusted by the expansion of the Yorkshire Dales National Park into Lancashire without it being renamed "Dales National Park" or similar. For one thing, it's just silly. And for another thing, it is inaccurate. There will be signs saying "Welcome to the Yorkshire Dales" in Lancashire. Moreover it sets yet another horrible precedent for chunks of Yorkshire itself to be carved up at some bureaucrat's whim. "Humberside" was a monstrosity enough.
Have been busy/away for most of the last week so have missed quite a few threads.
Its a personality cult, and Corbyn is their God. Increasing number of "Labour Party" members who have no interest in the party, or respect for the movement and the century of struggle simply don't care about evidence. Or facts. Or sanity. Or winning power.
We've had several more pieces of evidence submitted. Blanchflower and Wren-Lewis give their post mortem on the economic platform. Get attacked. Owen Jones writes a massive missive from the perspective who was a Corbynite from before Corbyn was a thing, and they're denouncing him as another Tory.
CLPs can't meet. The party has banned us. But through the looking glass Momentum continue to meet. They even had a discussion at their last meeting specifically on campaign activity in our CLP. The CLP can't meet to plan such activity. They can. Because they are not party of the party, not under the edict of the NEC. And it gets worse.
As we know Momentum is legally "Jeremy for Labour Ltd" - not a party unit as defined by the rule book. But this business is running Jeremy's election bid. Its publicity has this imprint "Promoted by John McDonnell on behalf of Jeremy for Labour" - not the party. But lobbying the party on behalf of the leader/shadow chancellor. Using Party software and databases.
Myself and my neighbouring CLP secretary have separately reported dreams where crowds of angry protesters stand outside our houses with placards denouncing us. We feel under siege. And for what - to watch the Shiny Happy People, the True Believers put their God on his pedestal. And it doesn't matter who says what, they will not be distracted from their faith in Him.
Evidence is irrelevant Facts are irrelevant Votes are irrelevant You WILL be assimilated
Mr P: if Momentum are using personal information collected by the Labour party on behalf of a separate legal entity without your consent then they are breaching various data protection laws. A complaint to the Data Protection Commissioner may help with this issue though it does not do anything about the wider issue you have so eloquently described.
I am all for the advancement of Yorkshire, but I'm disgusted by the expansion of the Yorkshire Dales National Park into Lancashire without it being renamed "Dales National Park" or similar. For one thing, it's just silly. And for another thing, it is inaccurate. There will be signs saying "Welcome to the Yorkshire Dales" in Lancashire. Moreover it sets yet another horrible precedent for chunks of Yorkshire itself to be carved up at some bureaucrat's whim. "Humberside" was a monstrosity enough.
How about the Roses Dales or Dales of the Roses?
I remember walking near the border once and going to a local pub for an evening meal. I chose a "War of the Roses" - Lancashire hotpot in a Yorkshire pudding. Classy.
I'm sure they can make the larger national parks work.
Mr. Llama, people collectively recall perceptions over realities. That's why people think Canute was trying, in a serious way, to order the tide to stop.
Or Schrodinger thought the cat was alive and dead!
Evidence for 'pure sentiment' causing the Netherlands downturn, please?
There was a serious financial crisis in the Eurozone in 2011-12, you may recall. Several countries went into recession. The Eurozone as a whole went into recession and contracted by 0.3% in 2012. As a small trade-dependent economy it is not too surprising the Netherlands struggled then.
The UK, notably, did not go into recession - although there was plenty of press hysteria at the time about 'triple dips' etc, all the more ridiculous as there was not even a double-dip.
Let's also perhaps take a slightly broader view on the current available evidence for the UK, rather than focusing entirely on the PMI survey.
On the surveys:
The Lloyds bank business barometer for July showed a sharp recovery from the Brexit-vote induced slump seen in the late June survey.
The CBI industrial survey showed little change from June-July. I'm wary of this one, but nevertheless...
The EU Commision business & consumer surveys for the UK are not consistent with recession conditions either.
On the harder data:
There isn't much at all, though weekly John Lewis sales show no Brexit-related drop. Monetary data also suggests a solid picture ahead of the Brexit vote.
So as I posted a little while ago, the early evidence is patchy & noisy and provides scope for all kinds of partial readings. But the old canard about us 'talking ourselves into a recession' remains just that.
The Dutch government started banging on about austerity and the media started talking up the chance of recession which resulted in people reducing spending and increasing savings levels. In a consumption led economy it led to a contraction and rising unemployment. The underlying economy was quite strong until that point.
Mr P: if Momentum are using personal information collected by the Labour party on behalf of a separate legal entity without your consent then they are breaching various data protection laws. A complaint to the Data Protection Commissioner may help with this issue though it does not do anything about the wider issue you have so eloquently described.
Is it Momentum using the data? Or Labour Party members who are also Momentum members? Is it Momentum driving the Corbyn campaign? Or Labour's Shadow Chancellor?
I'm feeling very sorry for Simon Danczuk. What has he done to deserve all this, other than being a somewhat silly boy? Thought he might have figured out what the tabloid press are like by now.
A popular "scandalous story" thing these days seems to be to include "filthy" text messages... usually the more obscene ones being sent by the totty/honeytrap rather than the supposed focus of the "investigation"/set-up!! And then the obligatory "he needs help" ... as in, the totty claims "I told him he needed help" after the wining, dining and bonking is over and she's decided to go the tabloids.
Still, Lord Justice Leveson will be cheered to know how his little payday has led to such a dramatic raising of journalistic standards.
@OwenJones84 Can we just roll it into one derogatory, catch-all term: a Blory? Let's start a new insult!
A 'blory' ? - It will never catch on...
What's it an amalgamation of?
Take a pinch of the most evil Prime Minister to sport a red rosette, and a vowel and two consonants of the world's second-most evil active political party (the US Republicans come first, I suspect).
Have been busy/away for most of the last week so have missed quite a few threads.
Its a personality cult, and Corbyn is their God. Increasing number of "Labour Party" members who have no interest in the party, or respect for the movement and the century of struggle simply don't care about evidence. Or facts. Or sanity. Or winning power.
We've had several more pieces of evidence submitted. Blanchflower and Wren-Lewis give their post mortem on the economic platform. Get attacked. Owen Jones writes a massive missive from the perspective who was a Corbynite from before Corbyn was a thing, and they're denouncing him as another Tory.
CLPs can't meet. The party has banned us. But through the looking glass Momentum continue to meet. They even had a discussion at their last meeting specifically on campaign activity in our CLP. The CLP can't meet to plan such activity. They can. Because they are not party of the party, not under the edict of the NEC. And it gets worse.
As we know Momentum is legally "Jeremy for Labour Ltd" - not a party unit as defined by the rule book. But this business is running Jeremy's election bid. Its publicity has this imprint "Promoted by John McDonnell on behalf of Jeremy for Labour" - not the party. But lobbying the party on behalf of the leader/shadow chancellor. Using Party software and databases.
Myself and my neighbouring CLP secretary have separately reported dreams where crowds of angry protesters stand outside our houses with placards denouncing us. We feel under siege. And for what - to watch the Shiny Happy People, the True Believers put their God on his pedestal. And it doesn't matter who says what, they will not be distracted from their faith in Him.
Evidence is irrelevant Facts are irrelevant Votes are irrelevant You WILL be assimilated
CLP were banned to meet in order to prevent them deselecting MP's in the midst of a leadership contest.
Before the NEC took the decision they were ready to deselect Eagle in Liverpool.
Corbyn is no God, but the MP's certainly play the role of devil, that have declared war on the Labour party.
Their latest plot of going to court to try to wrestle the party name and it's assets proves that their problem was never about Corbyn, it was about Labour.
Since the MP's have declared war on the Labour party it is the duty of party members to defeat them, regardless of Corbyn.
Evidence for 'pure sentiment' causing the Netherlands downturn, please?
There was a serious financial crisis in the Eurozone in 2011-12, you may recall. Several countries went into recession. The Eurozone as a whole went into recession and contracted by 0.3% in 2012. As a small trade-dependent economy it is not too surprising the Netherlands struggled then.
The UK, notably, did not go into recession - although there was plenty of press hysteria at the time about 'triple dips' etc, all the more ridiculous as there was not even a double-dip.
Let's also perhaps take a slightly broader view on the current available evidence for the UK, rather than focusing entirely on the PMI survey.
On the surveys:
The Lloyds bank business barometer for July showed a sharp recovery from the Brexit-vote induced slump seen in the late June survey.
The CBI industrial survey showed little change from June-July. I'm wary of this one, but nevertheless...
The EU Commision business & consumer surveys for the UK are not consistent with recession conditions either.
On the harder data:
There isn't much at all, though weekly John Lewis sales show no Brexit-related drop. Monetary data also suggests a solid picture ahead of the Brexit vote.
So as I posted a little while ago, the early evidence is patchy & noisy and provides scope for all kinds of partial readings. But the old canard about us 'talking ourselves into a recession' remains just that.
The Dutch government started banging on about austerity and the media started talking up the chance of recession which resulted in people reducing spending and increasing savings levels. In a consumption led economy it led to a contraction and rising unemployment. The underlying economy was quite strong until that point.
A government banging on about austerity is an indicator of future government policy. That's a different kind of thing from people talking pessimistically about things.
Yes. What the article says, though, is that the difficulties arise quite specifically from the fact that Article 50 was designed not to work - it was purely there to booby trap the UK. If true, that is the most powerful argument FOR brexit that I have seen to date. Perhaps that is the point you were making?
Mr P: if Momentum are using personal information collected by the Labour party on behalf of a separate legal entity without your consent then they are breaching various data protection laws. A complaint to the Data Protection Commissioner may help with this issue though it does not do anything about the wider issue you have so eloquently described.
Is it Momentum using the data? Or Labour Party members who are also Momentum members? Is it Momentum driving the Corbyn campaign? Or Labour's Shadow Chancellor?
The line is blurred where they want it to be.
The entity which is sending out the publicity material you mentioned to you (and whose name is on it) is the entity which is using your personal data. It must have received the personal data from you or from a third party with your consent. If it did not there would appear to be a breach of data protection law. Find the address of the entity, write to them and write to the DP Commissioner. It is not much - very little in truth - but it is something.
But you don't need me to tell you that the wider issue of the political takeover of the Labour party needs to be fought politically. Still tying people up in legal knots can also play its part.
Evidence for 'pure sentiment' causing the Netherlands downturn, please?
There was a serious financial crisis in the Eurozone in 2011-12, you may recall. Several countries went into recession. The Eurozone as a whole went into recession and contracted by 0.3% in 2012. As a small trade-dependent economy it is not too surprising the Netherlands struggled then.
The UK, notably, did not go into recession - although there was plenty of press hysteria at the time about 'triple dips' etc, all the more ridiculous as there was not even a double-dip.
Let's also perhaps take a slightly broader view on the current available evidence for the UK, rather than focusing entirely on the PMI survey.
On the surveys:
The Lloyds bank business barometer for July showed a sharp recovery from the Brexit-vote induced slump seen in the late June survey.
The CBI industrial survey showed little change from June-July. I'm wary of this one, but nevertheless...
The EU Commision business & consumer surveys for the UK are not consistent with recession conditions either.
On the harder data:
There isn't much at all, though weekly John Lewis sales show no Brexit-related drop. Monetary data also suggests a solid picture ahead of the Brexit vote.
So as I posted a little while ago, the early evidence is patchy & noisy and provides scope for all kinds of partial readings. But the old canard about us 'talking ourselves into a recession' remains just that.
The Dutch government started banging on about austerity and the media started talking up the chance of recession which resulted in people reducing spending and increasing savings levels. In a consumption led economy it led to a contraction and rising unemployment. The underlying economy was quite strong until that point.
Max - that's a narrative, not evidence.
Now let's look at some evidence:
Dutch consumer spending started to decline in 2011, not 2012 with q/q falls in 3 of the 4 quarters that year.
The Dutch government didn't just 'bang on' about austerity - they did it. The cyclically-adjusted budget deficit fell by almost 3% of GDP from 2010-13.
That is a big tightening of policy. Government investment fell almost 7% in 2012, after a 3% fall in 2011 and a 4% fall in 2010.
Dutch house prices slumped from 2009-13, having become seriously overvalued before the financial crisis. The fall accelerated towards the end of 2011 as the Eurozone financial crisis bit. Dutch shares fell by 14% in Q3 2011, very similar to overall Eurozone shares.
So it's pretty clear the Dutch recession in 2012 was caused by a combination of a financial shock and inappropriate fiscal tightening - not 'sentiment'.
Why all the doom and gloom? We are still in the EU, we will be for two years more at least. Nothing has changed (other than water lilies are now banned in the UK and have to be removed from ponds immediately). So why should there be any change in trading conditions?
Evidence for 'pure sentiment' causing the Netherlands downturn, please?
There was a serious financial crisis in the Eurozone in 2011-12, you may recall. Several countries went into recession. The Eurozone as a whole went into recession and contracted by 0.3% in 2012. As a small trade-dependent economy it is not too surprising the Netherlands struggled then.
On the surveys:
The Lloyds bank business barometer for July showed a sharp recovery from the Brexit-vote induced slump seen in the late June survey.
The CBI industrial survey showed little change from June-July. I'm wary of this one, but nevertheless...
The EU Commision business & consumer surveys for the UK are not consistent with recession conditions either.
On the harder data:
There isn't much at all, though weekly John Lewis sales show no Brexit-related drop. Monetary data also suggests a solid picture ahead of the Brexit vote.
So as I posted a little while ago, the early evidence is patchy & noisy and provides scope for all kinds of partial readings. But the old canard about us 'talking ourselves into a recession' remains just that.
The Dutch government started banging on about austerity and the media started talking up the chance of recession which resulted in people reducing spending and increasing savings levels. In a consumption led economy it led to a contraction and rising unemployment. The underlying economy was quite strong until that point.
Max - that's a narrative, not evidence.
Now let's look at some evidence:
Dutch consumer spending started to decline in 2011, not 2012 with q/q falls in 3 of the 4 quarters that year.
The Dutch government didn't just 'bang on' about austerity - they did it. The cyclically-adjusted budget deficit fell by almost 3% of GDP from 2010-13.
That is a big tightening of policy. Government investment fell almost 7% in 2012, after a 3% fall in 2011 and a 4% fall in 2010.
Dutch house prices slumped from 2009-13, having become seriously overvalued before the financial crisis. The fall accelerated towards the end of 2011 as the Eurozone financial crisis bit. Dutch shares fell by 14% in Q3 2011, very similar to overall Eurozone shares.
So it's pretty clear the Dutch recession in 2012 was caused by a combination of a financial shock and inappropriate fiscal tightening - not 'sentiment'.
And once again it is remarkable that almost everywhere, notably the US, Ireland, Spain, and here the Netherlands, had a significant correction in the housing market during the post-crisis years. I still wonder whether ours was simply deferred.
I am all for the advancement of Yorkshire, but I'm disgusted by the expansion of the Yorkshire Dales National Park into Lancashire without it being renamed "Dales National Park" or similar. For one thing, it's just silly. And for another thing, it is inaccurate. There will be signs saying "Welcome to the Yorkshire Dales" in Lancashire. Moreover it sets yet another horrible precedent for chunks of Yorkshire itself to be carved up at some bureaucrat's whim. "Humberside" was a monstrosity enough.
It feels emasculating enough as a Lancastrian to see the "heritage" signs that have been erected in the east of the current 1974 county denoting the "historic" boundary with the West Riding of Yorkshire, whilst not to my knowledge having had any signs around the fringes of "Merseyside" and "Greater Manchester" north of the Mersey identifying the proper boundaries of the real Red Rose county....
I'm not too hung up about the YDNP - it's a tiny sliver of Lancs affected, and since they changed the boundaries in the 1970s, a part of what is now called Cumbria has been part of the Yorkshire Dales NP anyway.
Yes. What the article says, though, is that the difficulties arise quite specifically from the fact that Article 50 was designed not to work - it was purely there to booby trap the UK. If true, that is the most powerful argument FOR brexit that I have seen to date. Perhaps that is the point you were making?
Yes. What the article says, though, is that the difficulties arise quite specifically from the fact that Article 50 was designed not to work - it was purely there to booby trap the UK. If true, that is the most powerful argument FOR brexit that I have seen to date. Perhaps that is the point you were making?
I didn't get that from the piece - more that it was ill-thought-through and stuck in there as a sop to the UK rather than as a properly worked-through procedural device.
I thought it was a typically lawyerly piece (I write that as one myself); the practical political reality means a way will be found, regardless of the means by which it is achieved. Nothing is "too difficult", I thought that was very defeatist, a typical Remainer still spouting out Project Fear scaremongering, and a way out will emerge - but in keeping everyone happy, it won't fully satisfy everyone and will probably be flawed.
What I can't understand is cheering any piece of negative data or setback, and inviting others to own it whilst doing nothing themselves
And there in a nutshell is the Brexiteers' problem.
What, exactly, would you have people do?
Read the FT article. There are no simple, concrete, immediate, obvious or necessary steps that can be taken now.
Everything is in a state of flux, and resolving any one issue is frustrated by all of the others.
Meanwhile the economy takes a hit, as predicted.
In the words of another Brexiteer, you won. Suck it up!! Stop whining about it...
A start would be to accept the democrat decision the nation took and pledge to help make it work in whatever way one can, rather than highlight every piece of negativity, shrug one's shoulders, and say nothing to do with me 'guv.
In most cases the concrete action will simply be to point out the UK is still open for business, has a fantastic future and life goes on.
I am all for the advancement of Yorkshire, but I'm disgusted by the expansion of the Yorkshire Dales National Park into Lancashire without it being renamed "Dales National Park" or similar. For one thing, it's just silly. And for another thing, it is inaccurate. There will be signs saying "Welcome to the Yorkshire Dales" in Lancashire. Moreover it sets yet another horrible precedent for chunks of Yorkshire itself to be carved up at some bureaucrat's whim. "Humberside" was a monstrosity enough.
It feels emasculating enough as a Lancastrian to see the "heritage" signs that have been erected in the east of the current 1974 county denoting the "historic" boundary with the West Riding of Yorkshire, whilst not to my knowledge having had any signs around the fringes of "Merseyside" and "Greater Manchester" north of the Mersey identifying the proper boundaries of the real Red Rose county....
I'm not too hung up about the YDNP - it's a tiny sliver of Lancs affected, and since they changed the boundaries in the 1970s, a part of what is now called Cumbria has been part of the Yorkshire Dales NP anyway.
I'm in a part of North Yorkshire with a Lancaster postcode, awkward. Sitting now looking out the barn window across the Lune valley can see the Howgills to the far right and Scafell to the left over 40 miles away. Out the other window are the comforting presence of Ingleborough and Pen-y-Ghent.
The Lancaster border runs along the ridge of the grouse moor to the immediate left, no inhabitants between us and the border, we remain constantly alert should the War of the Roses erupt and hordes of Lancastrians appear over the hill.
In most cases the concrete action will simply be to point out the UK is still open for business, has a fantastic future and life goes on.
Not trigger Article 50 in other words...
There is more joy in heaven
We will be leaving the EU and I'm sure Article 50 will be invoked technically or otherwise at some stage in the future.
The question is whether we leave the EU in name only or whether we have meaningful change along the lines James Forsyth set out in the Spectator last week.
'Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.'
Oh dear out comes the drama queen, end of the world and all that good stuff.
The 0.25% appears to be the default assumption. Personally I would not be surprised if it didn't happen, at least soon.
I half expect it but I really can't see what anyone gains by cutting it ( a drop of 0.25% isn't going to make any loans any cheaper now most banks have totally separated their interest rates from the BoE's base rate).. My viewpoint would be steady as she goes let's see how things look in September...
Exactly. And it is actually more useful as a potential weapon in the knapsack than it is actually being used. Not least because using it would bring us one step closer to having an empty knapsack next time a crisis comes round.
In most cases the concrete action will simply be to point out the UK is still open for business, has a fantastic future and life goes on.
Not trigger Article 50 in other words...
There is more joy in heaven
And yet Google and GSK have pledged £500m for a new research centre in the UK after Brexit. Still can't do independent thought can you Scott. Stick to copying and pasting stuff from people smarter than you.
Yes. What the article says, though, is that the difficulties arise quite specifically from the fact that Article 50 was designed not to work - it was purely there to booby trap the UK. If true, that is the most powerful argument FOR brexit that I have seen to date. Perhaps that is the point you were making?
I didn't get that from the piece - more that it was ill-thought-through and stuck in there as a sop to the UK rather than as a properly worked-through procedural device.
I thought it was a typically lawyerly piece (I write that as one myself); the practical political reality means a way will be found, regardless of the means by which it is achieved. Nothing is "too difficult", I thought that was very defeatist, a typical Remainer still spouting out Project Fear scaremongering, and a way out will emerge - but in keeping everyone happy, it won't fully satisfy everyone and will probably be flawed.
The biggest criticism that can be made of Leave is that they didn't expect to win so pursued two-stage strategy designed to maximise the Leave vote this time to position for an outright win in the 2020s. Viewed from that prism, contradictions didn't matter.
However, you can also lay a similar criticism at the door of HMG who until the last few weeks had no real sense they'd lose and, in fact, deliberately failed to prepare for it as part of the Remain strategy.
That means a lot of hard work now has to be done on Brexit but that work will be done.
'Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.'
Oh dear out comes the drama queen, end of the world and all that good stuff.
The 0.25% appears to be the default assumption. Personally I would not be surprised if it didn't happen, at least soon.
I half expect it but I really can't see what anyone gains by cutting it ( a drop of 0.25% isn't going to make any loans any cheaper now most banks have totally separated their interest rates from the BoE's base rate).. My viewpoint would be steady as she goes let's see how things look in September...
Exactly. And it is actually more useful as a potential weapon in the knapsack than it is actually being used. Not least because using it would bring us one step closer to having an empty knapsack next time a crisis comes round.
I fear that the BoE are suffering from a massive case of groupthink. No one I have spoken to can think of a tangible benefit of cutting rates or increasing QE. Reloading the gun has a lot of merit for me, more than firing a blank (which is what a rate cut with an already weak currency would be). If anything I think the Bank you hold firm until A50 is served and then reassess based on what the political settlement with the EU is going to be, at that point we may need to raise rates because of rising inflation.
Comments
A paper like The Times would have paid handsomely for that.
Have a look at the graph
https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/0c05196aef1a446f94f249eef9bf2ea6
It has been on a downward trend since before the referendum.
Oh come on Mr Chestnut, the remainers were half right.
'Boom' in the European context has certainly been abolished indefinitely.
There is an interesting paper on UK de-industrialisation here:
http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/centre-for-business-research/downloads/working-papers/wp459.pdf
2. If the aim is to sell UK plc to US companies, or to negotiate a trade deal with the US, recruiting people who have inside knowledge of the US system is a good idea.
The terrible US Q2 GDP numbers are probably more worrying for the global outlook - the fact of Brexit is now old news.
But first, it has become increasingly common in politics to reduce disagreements to bad faith. Rather than accepting somebody has a different perspective because, well, that’s what they think, you look for an ulterior motive instead.
That is precisely what Labour have been doing to the Tories for years - the Tories do things because they are bad people.....
The evidence is there. Read Bootle in the Telegraph this morning.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.
The BoE are not reducing rates for fun ! Even holiday companies will be in trouble. Property companies etc. even with current mortgage rates. People can effectively borrow virtually free.
Only triple lock pensioners will be well off. Nice expensive bribes for votes !
I live between the Valleys and the Forest, both victims of that decline. The real tragedy is that worker mobility in these areas is so weak. People are waiting for 'their' jobs to come back, decades later. It's improved in recent years, but that leads to a new challenge - the greying of the post-industrial areas.
If he had published his article after Corbyn had won the leadership election, then it could have been taken as consructive criticism and perhaps could have been used to make a case for Jones' own preference of Clive Lewis taking over in 2018. However, publishing it in the middle of this election is only going to provide ammunition for Owen Smth, his supporters and the anti-Corbyn media.
'Excuse' or 'pretext'?
Of course you are quite right about the advantages of employing US based workers - my amusement is more the desperation of Liam Fox in press releasing the employment of three people and that Brexit was meant to be about making the UK great again rather than employing yet more foreigners.
'Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.
The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.
The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.'
Oh dear out comes the drama queen, end of the world and all that good stuff.
I believe our interest in stability and prosperity in our near abroad means that we need to be able to play a positive political role in Europe. The challenge is coming up with a framework that allows that to happen without us being members. I don't think this can be satisfied by any of the existing off-the-shelf deals such as standard EEA membership so we need to aim for something as close to a partnership of equals as reality allows - possibly something that could act as a model for a future deal between the EU and Russia when we move beyond the Putin era.
As much as I find the concept of the Anglosphere a pretension, and am embarrassed for people like Hannan who cringingly talk about our American 'cousins', I do recognise that our relative loss of prestige within the English speaking world has been one of the factors behind our growing identity crisis. In decades past, cultural figures in places like Australia would always seek out validation in the UK as a sign that they deserved to be taken seriously back home. Now things have changed, and we're no longer even sure ourselves of what we stand for. We need to find out.
Oh well we have got some way to go yet to get to Browns level of incompetence and destruction.
If you look at the Markit numbers, they've been negative before without an ensuing recession (e.g. 2003, 2004/5, 2011/12) as we're not a manufacturing economy.
However, if you look at the reactions on this board, we can see them potentially having an effect on consumers. I doubt young Surbiton will be lashing out on a new car or kitchen any time soon
Some times I give even the most extreme longshots even a 10% chance in the past, but there is no reason for Smith to be higher than that.
(Also some guy working at Smith's phone banks said that last week they had Corbyn leading 60-25.)
First the LibDems were accused of being Tories. Then the Blairite MPs, including some who had been doing the prior accusing, found themselves as (alleged) Tories. Next the soft left. Now even Owen Jones is a Tory. Who'd have thought!
"Alas poor Eurick...."
Audience stands applauds ...... Encore! Encore !!
What I can't understand is cheering any piece of negative data or setback, and inviting others to own it whilst doing nothing themselves, in a desperate desire to be vindicated.
https://t.co/yMVvsYYj36
What, exactly, would you have people do?
Read the FT article. There are no simple, concrete, immediate, obvious or necessary steps that can be taken now.
Everything is in a state of flux, and resolving any one issue is frustrated by all of the others.
Meanwhile the economy takes a hit, as predicted.
In the words of another Brexiteer, you won. Suck it up!! Stop whining about it...
Now, when you say you live between the Valleys and the Forest? Are we talking about South Wales? If so then I will say I have never been to a place so devoid of hope. I remember some years ago someone on here posting that there were people who still expected the coal mines to re-open, I thought he was being a bit over the top until four years or so ago a contact took me down to Swansea and I perforce spent some time in the area. It was clear that public money had been squirted around in a very liberal fashion (lots of new building, lots of new roads), but far too many of the people seemed soul-dead. It was worse than Burgess Hill on a wet Wednesday afternoon. It seemed that all the people with some get-up and go had already got up and gone.
However, I did see some shreds of hope. On my second trip down I stayed in a boutique type hotel in The Mumbles. The staff were local, the service was fantastic, and the food excellent. Some are still trying and I hope they succeed.
@Jamin2g: This is proper bunker mentality. https://t.co/PA6EfOHRu3
The main one is a fundamental one. The left can't win without compromise. Thats what lead to Blairism and New Labour.
Jones article seems to me to be one of grief that his desired way of changing the country will not and cannot happen. Not with Corbyn, and not without compromise.
I am all for the advancement of Yorkshire, but I'm disgusted by the expansion of the Yorkshire Dales National Park into Lancashire without it being renamed "Dales National Park" or similar. For one thing, it's just silly. And for another thing, it is inaccurate. There will be signs saying "Welcome to the Yorkshire Dales" in Lancashire. Moreover it sets yet another horrible precedent for chunks of Yorkshire itself to be carved up at some bureaucrat's whim. "Humberside" was a monstrosity enough.
My post-race analysis is up here. Four weeks until the next race.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/germany-post-race-analysis-2016.html
There was a serious financial crisis in the Eurozone in 2011-12, you may recall. Several countries went into recession. The Eurozone as a whole went into recession and contracted by 0.3% in 2012. As a small trade-dependent economy it is not too surprising the Netherlands struggled then.
The UK, notably, did not go into recession - although there was plenty of press hysteria at the time about 'triple dips' etc, all the more ridiculous as there was not even a double-dip.
Let's also perhaps take a slightly broader view on the current available evidence for the UK, rather than focusing entirely on the PMI survey.
On the surveys:
The Lloyds bank business barometer for July showed a sharp recovery from the Brexit-vote induced slump seen in the late June survey.
The CBI industrial survey showed little change from June-July. I'm wary of this one, but nevertheless...
The EU Commision business & consumer surveys for the UK are not consistent with recession conditions either.
On the harder data:
There isn't much at all, though weekly John Lewis sales show no Brexit-related drop. Monetary data also suggests a solid picture ahead of the Brexit vote.
So as I posted a little while ago, the early evidence is patchy & noisy and provides scope for all kinds of partial readings. But the old canard about us 'talking ourselves into a recession' remains just that.
Its a personality cult, and Corbyn is their God. Increasing number of "Labour Party" members who have no interest in the party, or respect for the movement and the century of struggle simply don't care about evidence. Or facts. Or sanity. Or winning power.
We've had several more pieces of evidence submitted. Blanchflower and Wren-Lewis give their post mortem on the economic platform. Get attacked. Owen Jones writes a massive missive from the perspective who was a Corbynite from before Corbyn was a thing, and they're denouncing him as another Tory.
CLPs can't meet. The party has banned us. But through the looking glass Momentum continue to meet. They even had a discussion at their last meeting specifically on campaign activity in our CLP. The CLP can't meet to plan such activity. They can. Because they are not party of the party, not under the edict of the NEC. And it gets worse.
As we know Momentum is legally "Jeremy for Labour Ltd" - not a party unit as defined by the rule book. But this business is running Jeremy's election bid. Its publicity has this imprint "Promoted by John McDonnell on behalf of Jeremy for Labour" - not the party. But lobbying the party on behalf of the leader/shadow chancellor. Using Party software and databases.
Myself and my neighbouring CLP secretary have separately reported dreams where crowds of angry protesters stand outside our houses with placards denouncing us. We feel under siege. And for what - to watch the Shiny Happy People, the True Believers put their God on his pedestal. And it doesn't matter who says what, they will not be distracted from their faith in Him.
Evidence is irrelevant
Facts are irrelevant
Votes are irrelevant
You WILL be assimilated
Pontypool (to the west) and Coleford/Cinderford (to the east) are all examples of that hopelessness. They're anti-Londons. Pretty much anyone with drive or talent leaves for greener fields. We do have some very good micro-businesses locally, but that's more so the owners and their few employees can enjoy the best of rural life - they would probably do far better elsewhere, in economic terms.
@OwenJones84 Can we just roll it into one derogatory, catch-all term: a Blory? Let's start a new insult!
A 'blory' ? - It will never catch on...
I'm sure they can make the larger national parks work.
The line is blurred where they want it to be.
A popular "scandalous story" thing these days seems to be to include "filthy" text messages... usually the more obscene ones being sent by the totty/honeytrap rather than the supposed focus of the "investigation"/set-up!! And then the obligatory "he needs help" ... as in, the totty claims "I told him he needed help" after the wining, dining and bonking is over and she's decided to go the tabloids.
Still, Lord Justice Leveson will be cheered to know how his little payday has led to such a dramatic raising of journalistic standards.
Kneel before your God
Clinton 46 .. Trump 39
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-did-hillary-clinton-get-a-post-convention-bump/
Before the NEC took the decision they were ready to deselect Eagle in Liverpool.
Corbyn is no God, but the MP's certainly play the role of devil, that have declared war on the Labour party.
Their latest plot of going to court to try to wrestle the party name and it's assets proves that their problem was never about Corbyn, it was about Labour.
Since the MP's have declared war on the Labour party it is the duty of party members to defeat them, regardless of Corbyn.
But you don't need me to tell you that the wider issue of the political takeover of the Labour party needs to be fought politically. Still tying people up in legal knots can also play its part.
Now let's look at some evidence:
Dutch consumer spending started to decline in 2011, not 2012 with q/q falls in 3 of the 4 quarters that year.
The Dutch government didn't just 'bang on' about austerity - they did it. The cyclically-adjusted budget deficit fell by almost 3% of GDP from 2010-13.
That is a big tightening of policy. Government investment fell almost 7% in 2012, after a 3% fall in 2011 and a 4% fall in 2010.
Dutch house prices slumped from 2009-13, having become seriously overvalued before the financial crisis. The fall accelerated towards the end of 2011 as the Eurozone financial crisis bit. Dutch shares fell by 14% in Q3 2011, very similar to overall Eurozone shares.
So it's pretty clear the Dutch recession in 2012 was caused by a combination of a financial shock and inappropriate fiscal tightening - not 'sentiment'.
Buy tinfoil shares. There's some good economic news
I'm not too hung up about the YDNP - it's a tiny sliver of Lancs affected, and since they changed the boundaries in the 1970s, a part of what is now called Cumbria has been part of the Yorkshire Dales NP anyway.
I thought it was a typically lawyerly piece (I write that as one myself); the practical political reality means a way will be found, regardless of the means by which it is achieved. Nothing is "too difficult", I thought that was very defeatist, a typical Remainer still spouting out Project Fear scaremongering, and a way out will emerge - but in keeping everyone happy, it won't fully satisfy everyone and will probably be flawed.
In most cases the concrete action will simply be to point out the UK is still open for business, has a fantastic future and life goes on.
There is more joy in heaven
The Lancaster border runs along the ridge of the grouse moor to the immediate left, no inhabitants between us and the border, we remain constantly alert should the War of the Roses erupt and hordes of Lancastrians appear over the hill.
The question is whether we leave the EU in name only or whether we have meaningful change along the lines James Forsyth set out in the Spectator last week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6n8IhAhjKQ
I am not generally a fan of the motley commentariat that Guido musters below the line, but this little snippet deserves to be shared:
Fun fact of the day: in a parallel universe he came out and said i could have let them all live
Meanwhile, Hillary's ratings are bouncing back and she has reestablished a clear lead over an increasingly bonkers Trump in the RCP average.
Worth noting that many on here forecast that the DNC would be a disaster, and that Hillary would get no bounce.
A lesson learned for some, I would hope.
However, you can also lay a similar criticism at the door of HMG who until the last few weeks had no real sense they'd lose and, in fact, deliberately failed to prepare for it as part of the Remain strategy.
That means a lot of hard work now has to be done on Brexit but that work will be done.