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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why at a 12% chance Owen Smith is now the value LAB leaders
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why at a 12% chance Owen Smith is now the value LAB leadership bet
All betting is about making assessments of value. How does the price being offered on an outcome equate to your assessment of that actually happening? If there is a mismatch then you have have value bet. So in writing this post I’m not making a prediction just stating where I think the betting value lies.
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It's very long but interesting. Corbyn' supporters will ignore it.
@SeanMortonUK: If you have no desire to turn Tory voters into Labour voters you should just take up jigsaws for all the use you are https://t.co/84sEp0OIW6
Owen Jones's apologia is most interesting for the chumocracy of the hard left that it lifts the veil on.
Given Labour's anti-austerity position, it is apposite that the two men of the moment are both Owen.
One other is the set of nominations from CLPs and affiliated organisations. The CLP nominations are currently running 57-15 to Corbyn, with a further 16 opting to make no nomination.
What we need to be careful of there, looking at a near 4:1 advantage for Corbyn, is firstly a FPTP effect, where consistent small leads in each seat can look like a landslide in CLPs (though the figures for individual nominations are often available; I just don't have them), and also, the people who turn up to the meetings are not representative of the electorate as a whole.
We also know about the membership surge, though again, it's a little finger-in-the-air in terms of interpreting that. How many joined / re-joined to back Corbyn and how many to boot him out? My instinct is that the more enthused membership is on his side but that is only a guess.
On the value question, I'm not sure I am with Mike. I think Betfair has this about right. All three sets of data point in Corbyn's direction and with parliament now in recess, he has much greater scope to avoid things that make him look bad. The question is, how does Smith win over the voters in the Corbyn column that he can't win without?
I'm now working again (mornings only for now, so that I can see him in visiting hours). Visits to pb will remain infrequent for some considerable time, owing to my various commitments at present.
The Owen Jones article is spot on. A year on Jezza has failed across the board in all aspects of leadership, strategy and campaigning. When even Owen Jones can see the cliff that Jezza is taking Labour off, yet is derided by the twittermob as Blairite then we have entered the final circle before the plughole.
Best wishes, and I hope you find time to drop by occasionally.
It's been a life-changing event for both of us, but the prospects currently look good.
On the CLP nominations, Corbyn is getting plenty from those in safe Tory or Labour seats, where membership is relatively low. Smith seems to be getting his mainly from big CLPs - notably in London. It's also worth noting that in some CLPs the nominating is done by committees and in others by a vote of members who attend the relevant meeting.
In normal circumstances the intervention by Owen Jones would be significant. The questions he poses are ones that the Corbyn cult will find very hard to answer and that's why he is now getting so much abuse on social media. Why he did not see these problems this time last year is beyond me, but there you go.
However, these are not normal times. A lot of Corbyn supporters have no interest in Labour ever seeking to form a government and attach to Corbyn their hopes, dreams and values without listening to a word he says. They will vote for Corbyn come hell or high water.
Crucially, it looks like the number of head to head debates between Snith and Corbyn are going to be kept to an absolute minimum by the Corbyn side. They have already withdrawn from one that Channel 4 was due to host tonight and have yet to give any assurances about others. My guess is that any debates that do happen will not be televised. Corbyn, of course, has no need to debate and in refusing to do it is behaving just like any other career politician - something he says he absolutely isn't :-D
Just in case anyone still didn't think that Corbyn was dangerous, now he's wanting to ban covert SAS and SBS missions.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3716412/Now-Corbyn-wants-new-laws-curb-raids-SAS-Labour-leader-calls-loophole-allows-special-forces-deployed-secret-missions-shut-down.html
He really doesn't care about defending Britain or its citizens at all, does he?
How fragile life is.
@twlldun: "And like Jesus Christ himself is very misunderstood" https://t.co/jEP4GTbaOL
http://southendnewsnetwork.com/news/katie-hopkins-falls-for-southend-news-network-spoof-story-live-on-air/
Those who are yet to discover SNN are missing out. It is England held up to the mirror. Well worth a read, and the best satirical site on the web at present.
But Owen Smith has so far come across as a David Brent impressionist; earnest, nerdy and more than slightly odd with a fair bit of self delusion thrown in. There is a real risk that he will not have the skill set to put Corbyn on the spot and hold him to account for his failures, particularly since they do not seem very far apart in policy terms. Whilst it is possible he may use the coming debates to define himself as a credible alternative it is a long way from nailed on.
I am not sure I see a lot of value here.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201516/ldselect/ldeucom/138/13804.htm#_idTextAnchor008
Story here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36937516
Full report here
https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/counting-cost-uk-poverty
"I also noted that it was no surprise that the Germans wanted to deport him. He was a very busy boy when in Germany and the authorities knew plenty about it and him. And there lies the risk in liberal democracies. This guy was a reasonably known quantity and yet when his application for asylum was finally rejected he was allowed to have free movement."
That is indeed the problem. If deportations of failed asylum seekers (and this fellow claimed asylum and was turned down) don't happen then there is little point in even having an asylum process. All the pressure will be on not letting people into the country in the first place.
At the moment we're being sold a dangerous lie: that there is both an effective proceed for determining asylum claims and for deporting those who fail them. Neither is true and the failure of the latter effectively means a free for all where a country's immigration policy is determined by whoever manages to set foot in a country. That is likely to prove intolerable at the best of times. But these are not the best of times.
Splendid to hear more good news from Mr. Meeks.
Mr. Sandpit, can't say I'm surprised. Corbyn reminds me of Jon Snow whining because he wasn't allowed to broadcast that Prince Harry was in Afghanistan.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/germany-post-race-analysis-2016.html
Of the four spread-betting suggestions I made in the mid-season review, there have been only small movements. However, 3/4 are in a positive direction, which is nice.
“I’m a Corbynite. I voted for him, because I thought the Labour Party needed a bit of a kick up the arse,”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/theatre/actors/i-dont-believe-it-victor-meldrew-is-back-for-richard-wilsons-edi/
I don't believeeeve it !
1. Controlled explosion in Olympic stadium yesterday after suspicious package found
2. Ramp at sailing venue collapses, water said to be dirty
3. Security company fired and military brought in
4. Fire in althletes' village, smoke detectors not working and rooms robbed of possessions during evacuation.
All of the above are headlines in the Mail today - journalistic licence or is this going to be one big mess next weekend?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3717326/Rio-Olympics-2016-Sailing-ramp-collapses-one-week-racing-starts.html
Rosberg is 4.7 on Betfair, that has to be value.
Also, RB to beat Ferrari in the Constructors' might be worth a look. RB are getting themselves together while the red team are still moving people around and don't seem to know what they're doing any more.
Having said that I do think that there are going to be a large number of blemishes on these games with some of the facilities not up to scratch or even necessarily completely safe for athletes or the public. Not that any of these blemishes will be on the scale of the IOC decision in respect of Russia.
Not sure what the Red Bull odds are. I do think they're increasingly likely to finish ahead. As I wrote, Ferrari need to win (relatively) at Belgium and Italy to have any chance of coming 2nd.
Edited extra bit: and thanks
Mr Morris Rosberg has shown his true form yet again by running yet another driver off the track. It's becoming habitual. The "Rosberg run off" manoeuvre saw Verstappen off the track this time.
On the in car comms he can be heard saying " I had full lock on" inferring he couldn't turn. The in car camera actually showed that was economical with the actual and he had done no such thing until he reached the track edge himself and then turned the wheel by which time Verstappen had to leave the track to avoid a collision. I looked closely on the replay and no attempt was made to turn the wheel even though at the speed he was then doing he could have done so.
The guy is a bad sportsman and worse still tells porkies even when the evidence does not support his version of events
He certainly is not the stuff champions are made off.
In the past, Hamilton has also told fibs (I forget what but he did get in trouble and admitted it a few years ago). That's probably racing driver excuses rather than malice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsDY1Ha83M8
[Alexander the Great, to capture the island-fort of Tyre, forced the locals on the mainland to build a mole, effectively reducing Tyre to a peninsula so that siege towers could be rolled up to the wall].
Also, good to see some political commentary from you again.
Welcome to the world of Jezza and the SWP.
From memory, in Bahrain Hamilton was typically side-by-side or a shade behind but had the racing line.
There's also the question of consistency. Verstappen had a dangerous late move in Hungary and got no penalty. That was much worse, in my eyes.
Agree with @DavidL about the Russian problem that the IOC have completely messed up. Even this week there are 11th hour protests from athletes including runner Yuliya Stepanova - one of the whistleblowers on the scandal - and champion pole vaulter Yelena Isembayeva, who are based in Europe and have been tested outside Russia for years. I also discovered recently that Kenyan athletes are banned for the same reason, good news for Mo Farah I guess.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jun/23/ioc-iaaf-russian-kenyan-athletes-rio-olympics
Wind in 5mins for the Politburo!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLke9Xo9M0o
They're like a sporting PLP when it comes to good decision-making.
Edited extra bit: feels like another age.
Hard to imagine a world with the enemy being a superpower rather than terrorism. [Still, give it 5-10 years and it might be a bit easier...].
Not the stuff of a true champion. Thrown caps in'all.
Of course, it's not a parliamentary election but the point about the number of voters needed to switch from the one side to the other still applies.
Gold - Guess the weight of Demis Roussos in speedos in the pool.
Silver - Nana Mouskouri laryangytis karaoke weightlifting.
Bronze - Lesbian plate throwing trap shooting.
Apropos of nothing I would call the split more 70-30 at the moment, with Smith gaining with long standing members as they slowly learn who he is.
Whilst Smith is a good candidate and a great potential leader, the PLP should probably have gone with someone already well known, popular and trusted for the task of removing Corbyn.
Alan Johnson should have been frogmarched into service.
Either Rosberg entered the corner on the inside line with too much speed - itself inherently dangerous as it cut across another driver's line and impeded him - or he deliberately pushed Verstappen off. Either deserves a penalty IMO.
We got married ....
It seems to me that you would have to be in full-on Kool-Aid mode to support Corbyn now and that makes me nervous of betting on him. Are there really *that* many people on the left who want to give up on power? But then again, it seems the answer to that question is yes.
( Puerile, yes I know. Gets coat)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36936300
Is Corbyn behaving like a career politician, or is he behaving as any competitor wanting to win a competition would behave?
If a boxer, was going into the final round, after having won every other round, would he decide to slug it out in the middle of the ring for the final 3 minutes and risk getting caught with one lucky punch?
The Parliamentary Labour party is faced with a leadership that does not regard Parliament as a route to real power, an all-pervasive activist organisation that explicitly rejects “winning”, a membership that has no reason to believe in the importance of compromising treasured political principles to gain victory and the leader of the country’s most powerful union having to placate a small, hard-left part of his membership to remain in a job. None of them have a Labour government as a priority.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/30/labours-parliamentary-pain-is-not-just-bad-for-labour-but-for-the-country-as-a-whole/