There are more pieces of data to the Labour race than just the polls, though we need to be careful about all of them.
On the value question, I'm not sure I am with Mike. I think Betfair has this about right. All three sets of data point in Corbyn's direction and with parliament now in recess, he has much greater scope to avoid things that make him look bad. The question is, how does Smith win over the voters in the Corbyn column that he can't win without?
I'd give Jones a 20% to 25% chance.
Crucially, it looks like the number of head to head debates between Snith and Corbyn are going to be kept to an absolute minimum by the Corbyn side. They have already withdrawn from one that Channel 4 was due to host tonight and have yet to give any assurances about others. My guess is that any debates that do happen will not be televised. Corbyn, of course, has no need to debate and in refusing to do it is behaving just like any other career politician - something he says he absolutely isn't :-D
Alas, it's Smith, not Jones!
Is Corbyn behaving like a career politician, or is he behaving as any competitor wanting to win a competition would behave?
If a boxer, was going into the final round, after having won every other round, would he decide to slug it out in the middle of the ring for the final 3 minutes and risk getting caught with one lucky punch?
Jeremy is not like the others. That's supposed to be a selling point.
Being "unlike others" does not mean he has to be a tactical klutz and risk snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
After all the underhand tactics his opposition have employed against him - trying to keep him off the ballot paper, raising the price of buying a vote from £3 to £25, disenfranchising 130k members who joined since January, I would say he should be forgiven for being politically astute enough to avoid an unnecessary possible banana skin.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
Apropos of nothing I would call the split more 70-30 at the moment, with Smith gaining with long standing members as they slowly learn who he is.
Whilst Smith is a good candidate and a great potential leader, the PLP should probably have gone with someone already well known, popular and trusted for the task of removing Corbyn.
Alan Johnson should have been frogmarched into service.
Why? Alan Johnson is in truth lightweight and has always ruled himself out as being not up to the job. For his honesty I give him 10/10.
Ed Milliband might have been able to defeat Corbyn.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
Brexit won't be an economic disaster, probably. If it were, we would be thinking again. But it will be very costly. A debilitating effort lasting ten years or so to end up worse off than where we started.
The one thing I predicted about a possible Leave victory that I was absolutely certain of was that the winning side would pin any deficiencies of Brexit onto the other side: no plan for Leave - that's the fault of Remain; things not going well - talking Britain down; no consensus on how to solve difficult problems - Remainers unable to accept the result
I have just read Owen Jones' missive referred to above.
It's very long but interesting. Corbyn' supporters will ignore it.
I too have read the whole of Owen Jones' post. He's correct, in my view, but from my own perspective it boils down to this: the Conservatives despise people like me; the left-wing don't just hate people like me, they hate us venomously.
If I have to pick between being despised & being hated venomously, I'll accept being despised.
And one further item: it's accepted that people tend to grow more conservative as they grow older, but that tendency shouldn't disguise the fact that older people remember the hard left as they were in the mid-20th century, when the venomous hatred was openly displayed all over the place.
We also know about the membership surge, though again, it's a little finger-in-the-air in terms of interpreting that. How many joined / re-joined to back Corbyn and how many to boot him out? My instinct is that the more enthused membership is on his side but that is only a guess.
On the value question, I'm not sure I am with Mike. I think Betfair has this about right. All three sets of data point in Corbyn's direction and with parliament now in recess, he has much greater scope to avoid things that make him look bad. The question is, how does Smith win over the voters in the Corbyn column that he can't win without?
I'd give Jones a 20% to 25% chance.
On meeting.
Ingo.
However, water.
Crucially, isn't :-D
I certainly don't want to back Corbyn at the current odds but I'm not sure Smith is value either, so I guess I agree with David that Betfair has it about right.
It seems to me that you would have to be in full-on Kool-Aid mode to support Corbyn now and that makes me nervous of betting on him. Are there really *that* many people on the left who want to give up on power? But then again, it seems the answer to that question is yes.
I explained it in my article on Saturday:
The Parliamentary Labour party is faced with a leadership that does not regard Parliament as a route to real power, an all-pervasive activist organisation that explicitly rejects “winning”, a membership that has no reason to believe in the importance of compromising treasured political principles to gain victory and the leader of the country’s most powerful union having to placate a small, hard-left part of his membership to remain in a job. None of them have a Labour government as a priority.
Southam, a really good article and a pretty damning Spectator piece. I really don't know where the PLP can go after the expected Corbyn victory in September but will watch with interest.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
Ah yes, one of the 3 Rowntree groups that toil away on their own agendas, some of them, potentially costing the UK dear.
"Since 2007, the (Joseph Rowntree) trust has given three grants to Cageprisoners, described by The Telegraph as a "controversial Islamic rights group fronted by a man charged with attending a terror training camp in Syria",[3] totaling £305,000, to support the work of Moazzam Begg.[4][5][6] Lord Carlile, formerly the British Government’s independent reviewer of anti-terrorism legislation, said: "I would never advise anybody to give money to CagePrisoners. I have concerns about the group. There are civil liberty organisations which I do give money to but CagePrisoners is most certainly not one of them." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Rowntree_Charitable_Trust
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
Brexit won't be an economic disaster, probably. If it were, we would be thinking again. But it will be very costly. A debilitating effort lasting ten years or so to end up worse off than where we started.
The one thing I predicted about a possible Leave victory that I was absolutely certain of was that the winning side would pin any deficiencies of Brexit onto the other side: no plan for Leave - that's the fault of Remain; things not going well - talking Britain down; no consensus on how to solve difficult problems - Remainers unable to accept the result
Let's get something straight, you think it will be very costly. Your opinion. No one knows how costly or otherwise Brexit might be. It might be that the UK enters a Goldilocks zone with weak currency, stable domestic demand and rising external demand coupled with falling oil prices to hold down inflation. That's a very real possibility and would, in the short term at least, be beneficial to the economy just as Germany has benefited from a long term undervaluation of their currency.
As for talking ourselves into a recession, it is a very real possibility.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I have just read Owen Jones' missive referred to above.
It's very long but interesting. Corbyn' supporters will ignore it.
.
And one further item: it's accepted that people tend to grow more conservative as they grow older, but that tendency shouldn't disguise the fact that older people remember the hard left as they were in the mid-20th century, when the venomous hatred was openly displayed all over the place.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I hope that the fallout from Brexit won't be too bad, I'm not talking anything down. I realise that one month's figures are just a straw in the wind, maybe things will improve. But you Leavers won and to now blame bad consequences on Remainers is adding insult to injury.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I hope that the fallout from Brexit won't be too bad, I'm not talking anything down. I realise that one month's figures are just a straw in the wind, maybe things will improve. But you Leavers won and to now blame bad consequences on Remainers is adding insult to injury.
The uncertainty is real. And uncertainty is rarely resolved by not talking about the situation.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
I think you have a point but of course they're never ever gonna admit it.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I hope that the fallout from Brexit won't be too bad, I'm not talking anything down. I realise that one month's figures are just a straw in the wind, maybe things will improve. But you Leavers won and to now blame bad consequences on Remainers is adding insult to injury.
It's the Gordon Brown circa 2008 attack - the economy would have been fine if only the nasty Tories hadn't been talking it down.
Still Liam Fox has hired three civil servants in the US to man convention booths so all our problems are over. A shame the jobs are going to US nationals rather than UK citizens.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I doubt we'll agree, but the Tories I know don't despise anyone. That's not because they're somehow loftier beings, but because the Tory party is not a moral crusade. Labour tend to get flak because they're fiscally incontinent and over-sentimental about public institutions.
Compassion is not the exclusive preserve of either party. Nor is politesse.
Mr. B2, true, but it's also not helped by, for example, the BBC running a story about dreadful results leading to stock market decline when the FTSE's down by 10 points.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
One thing we can be sure of, whatever happens nothing bad that happens after June 23rd will ever be the fault of Brexit according to the Leavers.
After years of relentlessly negative propaganda about the EU from the sceptics and their media allies we Remainers are now meant to suck it up and put our backs into proving ourselves wrong and make the whole thing work!
It's not going to work that way - as someone succinctly pointed out on PB a while ago, everything that happened before June 23rd was the fault of the EU and everything that happens afterwards will be the fault of Brexit.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I get your argument but I'm afraid you're being disingenuous - putting words into people's mouths before they react to what are poor figures. I voted Remain and I do want a soft landing but let's not pretend we're where we are because one or two people are saying 'you were warned'.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I suppose the tendency on the left is to see groups as statistics, numbers, indices or more or less privilege and so on, rather than people. As has often been observed the left like the idea of people in theory but not the reality of actual people. I'd have thought, though, that the group you describe would be quite a high priority group to be supported and enabled in a lefty dream society.
Obviously conservatives (again this is a caricature) are more comfortable with actual people. The problem, most recently displayed in Cameron's honours list, is that they tend to be very good at making a distinction between "people I know" (went to school with, daddy played golf with their uncle, and so on) and "other people". The former group are broadly virtuous, deserving, well-intentioned whereas the latter group are likely to be seen as responsible for any ill-fortune that befalls them, or, more simply, lazy scroungers.
To me it seems better, though sub-optimal, to have a government that has the broad aim of building a society in your interests, even if you suspect they hate you, than one that's building a society in its chums' interests. As Owen Jones' interesting article implies, Labour doesn't really have much chance of winning on the occasions it focuses on how much the different parts of the left-centre hate each other, rather than on how closely their respective interests align, so I don't think the chances of the "hateful left" ever being able to hate anyone from a position of elected office are particularly high.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I said after the Referendum result that when the economy goes t1ts up , the Brexiteers will blame anyone and everyone but themselves for destroying the economy of this country . I did not think that you would be doing less than 6 weeks later .
Mr. B2, true, but it's also not helped by, for example, the BBC running a story about dreadful results leading to stock market decline when the FTSE's down by 10 points.
True. But equally some of the leavers on here sound a bit like Corbyn's acolytes' argument that he would be heading for victory now, but for the opposition from some of his MPs.
They advocated Brexit as a strategy for the real world, not for some perfect universe where everybody was positive and united and no problems or criticism ever came their way. Brexit has to work despite the uncertainty and remnant opposition it was always going to run into, and it is lazy thinking simply to balance the opposition for the failure of the strategy (not that we are yet anywhere near being able to judge success or failure anyway).
Mr. B2, true, but it's also not helped by, for example, the BBC running a story about dreadful results leading to stock market decline when the FTSE's down by 10 points.
True. But equally some of the leavers on here sound a bit like Corbyn's acolytes' argument that he would be heading for victory now, but for the opposition from some of his MPs.
They advocated Brexit as a strategy for the real world, not for some perfect universe where everybody was positive and united and no problems or criticism ever came their way. Brexit has to work despite the uncertainty and remnant opposition it was always going to run into, and it is lazy thinking simply to balance the opposition for the failure of the strategy (not that we are yet anywhere near being able to judge success or failure anyway).
I'd broadly agree with that. In the same way that both campaigns repelled me, there's not much to love in either doom-mongering Refuseniks or Panglossian 'with one bound we are free' (e.g. Bernard Jenkins in the FT) Brexiteers.
To borrow a term from my field, we've unexpectedly changed the fitness function for UK businesses. Some will thrive, some will shrug it off and others will fail. It's the ratios between those three broad classes that will determine the short term economic costs of Brexit.
Absent any other data, my preference is to stick with the IFS estimates of around £20-40billion in opportunity costs (for government) by 2018. @MaxPB posted the ICAEW article downthread, seems like a reasonable assessment for Q3. My guess is it will be slightly worse - a modest contraction, due to the Brexit shock combined with a poor summer.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I get your argument but I'm afraid you're being disingenuous - putting words into people's mouths before they react to what are poor figures. I voted Remain and I do want a soft landing but let's not pretend we're where we are because one or two people are saying 'you were warned'.
That's not what I'm saying, we are where we are because the leave vote was a shock. No doubt about it. It also caused a lot of uncertainty. No doubt about that either. My issue is that a few bitter remain types (not many though) are now ready to call a recession despite just one month of indicators (not even hard data). I'm worried that in the rush to gloat over one month of poor indicators we actually will enter a recession.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
Brexit won't be an economic disaster, probably. If it were, we would be thinking again. But it will be very costly. A debilitating effort lasting ten years or so to end up worse off than where we started.
The one thing I predicted about a possible Leave victory that I was absolutely certain of was that the winning side would pin any deficiencies of Brexit onto the other side: no plan for Leave - that's the fault of Remain; things not going well - talking Britain down; no consensus on how to solve difficult problems - Remainers unable to accept the result
Let's get something straight, you think it will be very costly. Your opinion. No one knows how costly or otherwise Brexit might be. It might be that the UK enters a Goldilocks zone with weak currency, stable domestic demand and rising external demand coupled with falling oil prices to hold down inflation. That's a very real possibility and would, in the short term at least, be beneficial to the economy just as Germany has benefited from a long term undervaluation of their currency.
As for talking ourselves into a recession, it is a very real possibility.
Brexit will be costly because it will be highly disruptive and there are no real economic upsides to separation. The question is how much effect the downsides will have. We can mitigate the damage and that's worth doing. It may be manageable and people may decide the cost is worth paying for other non-economic benefits.
There are two delusions at play here: from Remainers who think we're staying in the EU and from Leavers who think breaking up our main relationships doesn't matter.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
Brexit won't be an economic disaster, probably. If it were, we would be thinking again. But it will be very costly. A debilitating effort lasting ten years or so to end up worse off than where we started.
The one thing I predicted about a possible Leave victory that I was absolutely certain of was that the winning side would pin any deficiencies of Brexit onto the other side: no plan for Leave - that's the fault of Remain; things not going well - talking Britain down; no consensus on how to solve difficult problems - Remainers unable to accept the result
Let's get something straight, you think it will be very costly. Your opinion. No one knows how costly or otherwise Brexit might be. It might be that the UK enters a Goldilocks zone with weak currency, stable domestic demand and rising external demand coupled with falling oil prices to hold down inflation. That's a very real possibility and would, in the short term at least, be beneficial to the economy just as Germany has benefited from a long term undervaluation of their currency.
As for talking ourselves into a recession, it is a very real possibility.
Brexit will be costly because it will be highly disruptive and there are no real economic upsides to separation. The question is how much effect the downsides will have. We can mitigate the damage and that's worth doing. It may be manageable and people may decide the cost is worth paying for other non-economic benefits.
There are two delusions at play here: from Remainers who think we're staying in the EU and from Leavers who think breaking up our main relationships doesn't matter.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I get your argument but I'm afraid you're being disingenuous - putting words into people's mouths before they react to what are poor figures. I voted Remain and I do want a soft landing but let's not pretend we're where we are because one or two people are saying 'you were warned'.
That's not what I'm saying, we are where we are because the leave vote was a shock. No doubt about it. It also caused a lot of uncertainty. No doubt about that either. My issue is that a few bitter remain types (not many though) are now ready to call a recession despite just one month of indicators (not even hard data). I'm worried that in the rush to gloat over one month of poor indicators we actually will enter a recession.
Well - on here you were the first to post the figures and mention recession - as far as I can see no-one else has. Maybe you should be taking your own advice
There was a slightly contrived equivalence on R4 this morning between Brexit and the reformation in "Taking the Long View". What was interesting about it was that Oliver Letwin was on and made a number of observations about how he saw Brexit going forward.
What he highlighted was that Brexit would mean that the UK would be responsible for its own laws again but that was not incompatible with them choosing to ensure that those laws were compatible (ie the same as) with the laws of the EU as a condition of us having certain market access arrangements with them for as long as we wanted that access. The phrase that he used more than once was "legal equivalence" and he seemed to think it would apply to our financial services sector in particular. He spoke with a clarity on the subject I have yet to hear from our mainstream politicians.
He was also very clear that if the price of remaining in the single market was freedom of movement that "was an option that we will not be taking up." As an insight to the sort of thinking that is going on in government it is worth a listen, particularly if you fast forward through the reformation guff.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
No, but it would be an over reaction to say the July indicators mean we're in recession as some of the idiot press did last time they came out. It's a single month at the time of highest uncertainty. It is, in sentiment terms, as bad as it gets. The problem is that the ex-remain side are sitting on the sidelines carping and gloating about the poor economic sentiment, without realising (or maybe some do) that they will make it worse. In 2010/11 the nation almost talked itself into a recession because of a couple of bad months in the PMI data, I fear we are heading in that direction again. Last time it was bitter leftists and Labour types who had just lost the election, this time it will be bitter remain types who lost the referendum.
I get your argument but I'm afraid you're being disingenuous - putting words into people's mouths before they react to what are poor figures. I voted Remain and I do want a soft landing but let's not pretend we're where we are because one or two people are saying 'you were warned'.
That's not what I'm saying, we are where we are because the leave vote was a shock. No doubt about it. It also caused a lot of uncertainty. No doubt about that either. My issue is that a few bitter remain types (not many though) are now ready to call a recession despite just one month of indicators (not even hard data). I'm worried that in the rush to gloat over one month of poor indicators we actually will enter a recession.
So this small number of bitter remainers have the power to cause a recession by gloating over the internet? If we enter a recession- then it will not be because of the media writing stories...
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I doubt we'll agree, but the Tories I know don't despise anyone. That's not because they're somehow loftier beings, but because the Tory party is not a moral crusade. Labour tend to get flak because they're fiscally incontinent and over-sentimental about public institutions.
Compassion is not the exclusive preserve of either party. Nor is politesse.
I do agree with what you say.
I recognise that my responses & perceptions spring from childhood experiences, growing up on a council estate and attending the local parish church. We were very much the wrong side of the tracks for the rest of the congregation and the attitude we experienced there has left an indelible mark.
I knew my parents to be decent, hard-working people with great concern for those less fortunate than themselves, which took effect in practical action.
I saw them treated like dirt (oh, very kindly & superciliously) by people who had vastly more of this world's goods than they could ever dream of.
But I know that this was seen through a child's eyes, with a child's understanding. I'm an adult now & I know that adversely labelling all people who remind me of those long-dead others is simply prejudice.
However, in some instances, the same traits do appear.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
Brexit won't be an economic disaster, probably. If it were, we would be thinking again. But it will be very costly. A debilitating effort lasting ten years or so to end up worse off than where we started.
Let's get something straight, you think it will be very costly. Your opinion. No one knows how costly or otherwise Brexit might be. It might be that the UK enters a Goldilocks zone with weak currency, stable domestic demand and rising external demand coupled with falling oil prices to hold down inflation. That's a very real possibility and would, in the short term at least, be beneficial to the economy just as Germany has benefited from a long term undervaluation of their currency.
As for talking ourselves into a recession, it is a very real possibility.
Brexit will be costly because it will be highly disruptive and there are no real economic upsides to separation. The question is how much effect the downsides will have. We can mitigate the damage and that's worth doing. It may be manageable and people may decide the cost is worth paying for other non-economic benefits.
There are two delusions at play here: from Remainers who think we're staying in the EU and from Leavers who think breaking up our main relationships doesn't matter.
You think that, your opinion. Again.
In fairness, this site is entirely opinion and sentiment driven. I hardly feel I'm tottering down from the holy mountain offering my views on tablets of stone.
I do think we're in very good company though. Watching economists failing to predict, then rationalising global economic contortions is entertaining in its own right.
Mr. B2, true, but it's also not helped by, for example, the BBC running a story about dreadful results leading to stock market decline when the FTSE's down by 10 points.
True. But equally some of the leavers on here sound a bit like Corbyn's acolytes' argument that he would be heading for victory now, but for the opposition from some of his MPs.
They advocated Brexit as a strategy for the real world, not for some perfect universe where everybody was positive and united and no problems or criticism ever came their way. Brexit has to work despite the uncertainty and remnant opposition it was always going to run into, and it is lazy thinking simply to balance the opposition for the failure of the strategy (not that we are yet anywhere near being able to judge success or failure anyway).
A negative reaction to the Brexit vote was always expected and was one of the reasons why a lot of Remainers were Remainers: they did not see the benefits of leaving outweighing such a reaction and the longer drag that Brexit will cause on economic activity. What has happened so far is pretty much what everyone agreed would happen. It's th emedium term bit that is going to be harder to predict: the Brexit deal we get and the increased access to other markets we get. The best case scenario - and one that would probably justify the Leave vote - is remaining part of the single market and getting greater access to other big markets elsewhere in the world. If we don't get that, then voting to Leave will have been shown to be a mistake from an economic and living standards perspective.
Well - on here you were the first to post the figures and mention recession - as far as I can see no-one else has. Maybe you should be taking your own advice
On July 22nd I counted 3 articles and a few more live blog saying that we've entered a recession because of the composite preliminary indicators. The BBC were calling a 10 point fall in the FTSE 100 a dramatic fall or something along those lines just now. It's a huge overreaction and I hope we get some sensible reporting sooner rathet than later.
Has this post been caught in a spam filter since October 2015? It's much too late for that now, and Trump thinks he is winning, not losing.
Why is it too late? There are three months to go. What if he drops to 10% behind and stays there for the whole of September? He doesn't care about the Republican party.
I don't think this is likely in the next month. For a start, he'll get a boost from the Green party's convention.
Once the official nomination papers are in, it will be extremely difficult to withdraw, and even harder for the Republicans to nominate someone else in his place.
I am not so sure of that. I'm told that no presidential candidate from a major party has ever withdrawn, but if it happens, or if they die, then doesn't the problem reduce to replacing each state's electors for that party or getting the same electors to pledge themselves to someone else? Money for our learned friends, yes, but how difficult really?
Electors must surely have been replaced in the past. Given that there are more than 500 each time and they are chosen months ahead (by the time of the conventions?), it's highly improbable that none have ever died after appointment and before the election, or more pertinently, before the electors are scheduled to vote in December.
It has happened that a vice-presidential candidate has withdrawn, namely Thomas Eagleton, George McGovern's Democratic running-mate in 1972, who withdrew on 1 August once it became known that he had several times been treated in hospital for depression, where twice he had received electroshock. Was there difficulty in Sargent Shriver replacing him?
In any case, even if he were 10% behind in September, he still has more than enough ego and self-confidence to believe that he could pull it back in October.
He might even be right. I don't think he's irrational about his chances. But in his book on the "deal", he puts a lot of emphasis on being willing to walk away. I think if anything the threshold at which he would withdraw is lower than for most candidates.
Guido First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
We're still open for business and investors want UK law for foreign bonds. It's a major reason we have such deep capital markets compared to the continent.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I doubt we'll agree, but the Tories I know don't despise anyone. That's not because they're somehow loftier beings, but because the Tory party is not a moral crusade. Labour tend to get flak because they're fiscally incontinent and over-sentimental about public institutions.
Compassion is not the exclusive preserve of either party. Nor is politesse.
I do agree with what you say.
I recognise that my responses & perceptions spring from childhood experiences, growing up on a council estate and attending the local parish church. We were very much the wrong side of the tracks for the rest of the congregation and the attitude we experienced there has left an indelible mark.
I knew my parents to be decent, hard-working people with great concern for those less fortunate than themselves, which took effect in practical action.
I saw them treated like dirt (oh, very kindly & superciliously) by people who had vastly more of this world's goods than they could ever dream of.
But I know that this was seen through a child's eyes, with a child's understanding. I'm an adult now & I know that adversely labelling all people who remind me of those long-dead others is simply prejudice.
However, in some instances, the same traits do appear.
We have to accept that in large political movements, our fellow travellers may very well be ghastly human beings.
I don't really _like_ the right wing of 'my' party. There's still a whiff of the hang 'em and flog 'em types who don't really entertain the notion of the virtuous poor.
Equally, I'm repulsed by bien-pensant champagne socialists who champion a working class that they quite clearly despise.
Unfortunately, we have to work with and around these people in order to get things done.
PS Writing that as the scion of a council maisonette, outside lavvie, dirt poor working class family. Happy Yorkshire Day!
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
Brexit won't be an economic disaster, probably. If it were, we would be thinking again. But it will be very costly. A debilitating effort lasting ten years or so to end up worse off than where we started.
The one thing I predicted about a possible Leave victory that I was absolutely certain of was that the winning side would pin any deficiencies of Brexit onto the other side: no plan for Leave - that's the fault of Remain; things not going well - talking Britain down; no consensus on how to solve difficult problems - Remainers unable to accept the result
Let's get something straight, you think it will be very costly. Your opinion. No one knows how costly or otherwise Brexit might be. It might be that the UK enters a Goldilocks zone with weak currency, stable domestic demand and rising external demand coupled with falling oil prices to hold down inflation. That's a very real possibility and would, in the short term at least, be beneficial to the economy just as Germany has benefited from a long term undervaluation of their currency.
As for talking ourselves into a recession, it is a very real possibility.
Brexit will be costly because it will be highly disruptive and there are no real economic upsides to separation. The question is how much effect the downsides will have. We can mitigate the damage and that's worth doing. It may be manageable and people may decide the cost is worth paying for other non-economic benefits.
There are two delusions at play here: from Remainers who think we're staying in the EU and from Leavers who think breaking up our main relationships doesn't matter.
my 1st reaction is that I agree with every letter of that.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I doubt we'll agree, but the Tories I know don't despise anyone. That's not because they're somehow loftier beings, but because the Tory party is not a moral crusade. Labour tend to get flak because they're fiscally incontinent and over-sentimental about public institutions.
Compassion is not the exclusive preserve of either party. Nor is politesse.
I do agree with what you say.
I recognise that my responses & perceptions spring from childhood experiences, growing up on a council estate and attending the local parish church. We were very much the wrong side of the tracks for the rest of the congregation and the attitude we experienced there has left an indelible mark.
I knew my parents to be decent, hard-working people with great concern for those less fortunate than themselves, which took effect in practical action.
I saw them treated like dirt (oh, very kindly & superciliously) by people who had vastly more of this world's goods than they could ever dream of.
But I know that this was seen through a child's eyes, with a child's understanding. I'm an adult now & I know that adversely labelling all people who remind me of those long-dead others is simply prejudice.
However, in some instances, the same traits do appear.
I believe that everybody should be able to progress as far as their abilities take them and that access to opportunities to progress should not be restricted to a privileged minority. I was brought up in an upper working class/lower middle class family, initially in council housing. I had the opportunity to go to one of the few Technical High Schools (thanks to Harold Wilson's Whit Heat of Technology) then on to study a degree - the first in my family to do so.
I have had a successful career and my life is a lot better than my parents. At no stage was I treated 'like dirt' although I was surrounded by people from a better off background than me. Making the most of your abilities is crucial if you want to progress and better yourself.
Guido First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
We're still open for business and investors want UK law for foreign bonds. It's a major reason we have such deep capital markets compared to the continent.
The global image of UK law is one reason why Brexiters should be tolerant of moves to use the legal system to throw spanners in the works of Article 50. There could be no more powerful symbol of the strength of the rule of law in this country.
Well - on here you were the first to post the figures and mention recession - as far as I can see no-one else has. Maybe you should be taking your own advice
On July 22nd I counted 3 articles and a few more live blog saying that we've entered a recession because of the composite preliminary indicators. The BBC were calling a 10 point fall in the FTSE 100 a dramatic fall or something along those lines just now. It's a huge overreaction and I hope we get some sensible reporting sooner rathet than later.
Whilst I agree with you Max it is hardly surprising that the slightest indicators are seized upon in a time of maximum uncertainty in the hope that they might prove to be straws in the wind. Referring to wins on a Parish Council somewhere might be the political equivalent (and probably just about as useful).
My perception, FWIW, is that there was considerable initial uncertainty which was greatly aggravated by the departure of Cameron and Osborne who were at a minimum a known and largely predictable commodity and generally pretty well regarded by those that influence markets. The rapid confirmation of a new PM and at least the appearance of a much more united party seems to have substantially addressed that and I suspect what we will see over the next few quarters is not much different from what was coming down the track anyway.
In the medium term the terms of engagement with the single market are a source of uncertainty and I do not believe it is in the UK's interests to let this drag on indefinitely.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
One thing we can be sure of, whatever happens nothing bad that happens after June 23rd will ever be the fault of Brexit according to the Leavers.
After years of relentlessly negative propaganda about the EU from the sceptics and their media allies we Remainers are now meant to suck it up and put our backs into proving ourselves wrong and make the whole thing work!
It's not going to work that way - as someone succinctly pointed out on PB a while ago, everything that happened before June 23rd was the fault of the EU and everything that happens afterwards will be the fault of Brexit.
Yes, Leavers narrowly won Brexit and they now own the consequences.
The best case scenario - and one that would probably justify the Leave vote - is remaining part of the single market and getting greater access to other big markets elsewhere in the world. If we don't get that, then voting to Leave will have been shown to be a mistake from an economic and living standards perspective.
It is very unlikely, but not impossible, we will get greater access to other big markets elsewhere in the world than we do now. Remaining in the single market will almost certainly be an option, but not one the Government seems minded to take at present.
My settled view of Brexit is it's a mistake*, but a mistake we will have to live with and deal with.
* A mistake in the "Talleyrand" sense of an unforced decision that leaves us worse off. There are philosophical arguments for and against Brexit in the abstract.
I suppose the tendency on the left is to see groups as statistics, numbers, indices or more or less privilege and so on, rather than people. As has often been observed the left like the idea of people in theory but not the reality of actual people. I'd have thought, though, that the group you describe would be quite a high priority group to be supported and enabled in a lefty dream society.
Obviously conservatives (again this is a caricature) are more comfortable with actual people. The problem, most recently displayed in Cameron's honours list, is that they tend to be very good at making a distinction between "people I know" (went to school with, daddy played golf with their uncle, and so on) and "other people". The former group are broadly virtuous, deserving, well-intentioned whereas the latter group are likely to be seen as responsible for any ill-fortune that befalls them, or, more simply, lazy scroungers.
To me it seems better, though sub-optimal, to have a government that has the broad aim of building a society in your interests, even if you suspect they hate you, than one that's building a society in its chums' interests. As Owen Jones' interesting article implies, Labour doesn't really have much chance of winning on the occasions it focuses on how much the different parts of the left-centre hate each other, rather than on how closely their respective interests align, so I don't think the chances of the "hateful left" ever being able to hate anyone from a position of elected office are particularly high.
That (the bit in my bold) is an interesting proposition. On the whole, I disagree. I'd rather have a society where hate isn't motivating the people in charge, whatever the impact on my interests. Hate is a very infectious and damaging emotion.
One thing I really dislike about the Labour party is the way they (some of them!) have taught the younger members to "hate" Lady Thatcher, a mere figure from history to people of that age. Stirring the youngsters up with positive ideas aimed at counteracting the results of Thatcherite policies is one thing, but that isn't what has happened. A party that actively teaches youngsters to hate is not one I could vote for.
Guido First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
What it means is that the City remains the world's finance capital thanks to history, legal system, language, location, political support and the sheer number of international firms based here. If you want to raise money, particularly in currency markets, you come to London. The only way the Brexit issue can affect that is if the EU countries try to withdraw their banks and finance houses from London, by forcing them to operate from inside the EU. However, if they do that, those institutions are likely to find ways around those laws - by incorporating, or creating subsidiaries, outside the EU. And, remember, London hosts US, Japanese, Middle Eastern, African and Chinese finance houses who would happily take business off EU domiciled banks. The weight of money is in London and should remain so. This is not to say that in other areas of finance - banking, insurance, etc. - the EU could not do a great deal to scupper London's pre-eminence.
It really depends, export orders are up, but domestic demand is down. If we get more stupid headlines and more doom mongering from the former remain camp then it probably does have further to fall as export output is going to be slower to get running than falling domestic demand. I think August figures will give us a better idea of what's going on as this was still in the immediate aftermath of the result. Right now what we need is for the reaction to be "meh" rather than "oh my God an indicator which I'd never heard of before has gone negative, the whole economy is going to come crashing down". I fear we are going to get the latter.
So 'Remain' say that leaving will be bad for the economy, 'Leave' say that it won't be. Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy. Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
One thing we can be sure of, whatever happens nothing bad that happens after June 23rd will ever be the fault of Brexit according to the Leavers.
After years of relentlessly negative propaganda about the EU from the sceptics and their media allies we Remainers are now meant to suck it up and put our backs into proving ourselves wrong and make the whole thing work!
It's not going to work that way - as someone succinctly pointed out on PB a while ago, everything that happened before June 23rd was the fault of the EU and everything that happens afterwards will be the fault of Brexit.
Yes, Leavers narrowly won Brexit and they now own the consequences.
There was a slightly contrived equivalence on R4 this morning between Brexit and the reformation in "Taking the Long View". What was interesting about it was that Oliver Letwin was on and made a number of observations about how he saw Brexit going forward.
What he highlighted was that Brexit would mean that the UK would be responsible for its own laws again but that was not incompatible with them choosing to ensure that those laws were compatible (ie the same as) with the laws of the EU as a condition of us having certain market access arrangements with them for as long as we wanted that access. The phrase that he used more than once was "legal equivalence" and he seemed to think it would apply to our financial services sector in particular. He spoke with a clarity on the subject I have yet to hear from our mainstream politicians.
He was also very clear that if the price of remaining in the single market was freedom of movement that "was an option that we will not be taking up." As an insight to the sort of thinking that is going on in government it is worth a listen, particularly if you fast forward through the reformation guff.
That's a very encouraging pointer - it hints at more positive thinking, as opposed merely to shocked reactions.
Guido First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
We're still open for business and investors want UK law for foreign bonds. It's a major reason we have such deep capital markets compared to the continent.
I see in the papers this morning that Glaxo Smith Kline is to open a new research centre in the UK. This comes on top of GSK's statement last week that the will continue to invest in the UK as it is the best place to do science research. We have also had Siemens saying that they too will be investing in further plants in the UK and, if memory serves, a couple of other multinationals have said similar things.
I suppose the tendency on the left is to see groups as statistics, numbers, indices or more or less privilege and so on, rather than people. As has often been observed the left like the idea of people in theory but not the reality of actual people. I'd have thought, though, that the group you describe would be quite a high priority group to be supported and enabled in a lefty dream society.
Obviously conservatives (again this is a caricature) are more comfortable with actual people. The problem, most recently displayed in Cameron's honours list, is that they tend to be very good at making a distinction between "people I know" (went to school with, daddy played golf with their uncle, and so on) and "other people". The former group are broadly virtuous, deserving, well-intentioned whereas the latter group are likely to be seen as responsible for any ill-fortune that befalls them, or, more simply, lazy scroungers.
To me it seems better, though sub-optimal, to have a government that has the broad aim of building a society in your interests, even if you suspect they hate you, than one that's building a society in its chums' interests. As Owen Jones' interesting article implies, Labour doesn't really have much chance of winning on the occasions it focuses on how much the different parts of the left-centre hate each other, rather than on how closely their respective interests align, so I don't think the chances of the "hateful left" ever being able to hate anyone from a position of elected office are particularly high.
That (the bit in my bold) is an interesting proposition. On the whole, I disagree. I'd rather have a society where hate isn't motivating the people in charge, whatever the impact on my interests. Hate is a very infectious and damaging emotion.
One thing I really dislike about the Labour party is the way they (some of them!) have taught the younger members to "hate" Lady Thatcher, a mere figure from history to people of that age. Stirring the youngsters up with positive ideas aimed at counteracting the results of Thatcherite policies is one thing, but that isn't what has happened. A party that actively teaches youngsters to hate is not one I could vote for.
People who are interested in politics tend to view history through the lens of governments, administrations and the personalities involved.
While I wouldn't deny the impact of the blessed Margaret, she was unlucky in that de-industrialisation happened on her watch - it was inevitable. She was lucky in that the IT revolution more than compensated for it in terms of the broader economy.
Jones sets out his strong credentials as a Corbyn supporter and sets out the problems the Corbynistas face but are not tackling. A theme is the gap between what the public want and what the left wing offer.
Unfortunately, my interpretation of the solution is someone like Blair who can take opposing positions at the same time, lying to the public and manipulating the party faithful.
Has this post been caught in a spam filter since October 2015? It's much too late for that now, and Trump thinks he is winning, not losing.
Why is it too late? There are three months to go. What if he drops to 10% behind and stays there for the whole of September? He doesn't care about the Republican party.
I don't think this is likely in the next month. For a start, he'll get a boost from the Green party's convention.
Once the official nomination papers are in, it will be extremely difficult to withdraw, and even harder for the Republicans to nominate someone else in his place.
I am not so sure of that. I'm told that no presidential candidate from a major party has ever withdrawn, but if it happens, or if they die, then doesn't the problem reduce to replacing each state's electors for that party or getting the same electors to pledge themselves to someone else? Money for our learned friends, yes, but how difficult really?
Following up to my own post here, but it wouldn't be especially difficult to replace a candidate who has withdrawn. The Republican National Committee is empowered to fill any vacancies, under Rule 9 of its party rules. I think these 2012 rules are still in force.
Guido First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
We're still open for business and investors want UK law for foreign bonds. It's a major reason we have such deep capital markets compared to the continent.
I see in the papers this morning that Glaxo Smith Kline is to open a new research centre in the UK. This comes on top of GSK's statement last week that the will continue to invest in the UK as it is the best place to do science research. We have also had Siemens saying that they too will be investing in further plants in the UK and, if memory serves, a couple of other multinationals have said similar things.
The issue with all of that is companies will want to publicise and promote any investment they make as it is good PR. They won't be publicising delays or cancelled investments and we'll have to search through financial statements to find them. As I said, I think we're headong for about 0.2-0.4% growth in the next quarter based on the sugar rush of currency depreciation. After that who knows, certainly not me. I'll add that the company's forecast is -0.4% and -0.3% for the next two quarters, let's see if I do a better job than our forecasters.
In the medium term the terms of engagement with the single market are a source of uncertainty and I do not believe it is in the UK's interests to let this drag on indefinitely.
Economically this is probably true (assuming Brexit actually happens rather than being endlessly postponed) but I don't think the political incentives match. When all decisions risk greatly narking off a significant chunk of voters, politicians will do whatever they can to avoid making a decision.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I doubt we'll agree, but the Tories I know don't despise anyone. That's not because they're somehow loftier beings, but because the Tory party is not a moral crusade. Labour tend to get flak because they're fiscally incontinent and over-sentimental about public institutions.
Compassion is not the exclusive preserve of either party. Nor is politesse.
I do agree with what you say.
I recognise that my responses & perceptions spring from childhood experiences, growing up on a council estate and attending the local parish church. We were very much the wrong side of the tracks for the rest of the congregation and the attitude we experienced there has left an indelible mark.
I knew my parents to be decent, hard-working people with great concern for those less fortunate than themselves, which took effect in practical action.
I saw them treated like dirt (oh, very kindly & superciliously) by people who had vastly more of this world's goods than they could ever dream of.
But I know that this was seen through a child's eyes, with a child's understanding. I'm an adult now & I know that adversely labelling all people who remind me of those long-dead others is simply prejudice.
However, in some instances, the same traits do appear.
We have to accept that in large political movements, our fellow travellers may very well be ghastly human beings.
Whisper it, but we might also have to accept the possibility that our 'fellow travellers' think we are ghastly human beings.
Guido First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
We're still open for business and investors want UK law for foreign bonds. It's a major reason we have such deep capital markets compared to the continent.
I see in the papers this morning that Glaxo Smith Kline is to open a new research centre in the UK. This comes on top of GSK's statement last week that the will continue to invest in the UK as it is the best place to do science research. We have also had Siemens saying that they too will be investing in further plants in the UK and, if memory serves, a couple of other multinationals have said similar things.
The issue with all of that is companies will want to publicise and promote any investment they make as it is good PR. They won't be publicising delays or cancelled investments and we'll have to search through financial statements to find them. As I said, I think we're headong for about 0.2-0.4% growth in the next quarter based on the sugar rush of currency depreciation. After that who knows, certainly not me. I'll add that the company's forecast is -0.4% and -0.3% for the next two quarters, let's see if I do a better job than our forecasters.
I used to work for a company that was (at different points in its history) the fastest growing in US history and the first to ever post a $1billion quarterly loss.
At the time, I was a European account manager (selling into Unilever). From my perspective, all that was happening was a slight worsening in our bid/win ratio. From a company perspective, it was a disaster.
The best case scenario - and one that would probably justify the Leave vote - is remaining part of the single market and getting greater access to other big markets elsewhere in the world. If we don't get that, then voting to Leave will have been shown to be a mistake from an economic and living standards perspective.
It is very unlikely, but not impossible, we will get greater access to other big markets elsewhere in the world than we do now. Remaining in the single market will almost certainly be an option, but not one the Government seems minded to take at present.
My settled view of Brexit is it's a mistake*, but a mistake we will have to live with and deal with.
* A mistake in the "Talleyrand" sense of an unforced decision that leaves us worse off. There are philosophical arguments for and against Brexit in the abstract.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I doubt we'll agree, but the Tories I know don't despise anyone. That's not because they're somehow loftier beings, but because the Tory party is not a moral crusade. Labour tend to get flak because they're fiscally incontinent and over-sentimental about public institutions.
Compassion is not the exclusive preserve of either party. Nor is politesse.
I do agree with what you say.
I recognise that my responses & perceptions spring from childhood experiences, growing up on a council estate and attending the local parish church. We were very much the wrong side of the tracks for the rest of the congregation and the attitude we experienced there has left an indelible mark.
I knew my parents to be decent, hard-working people with great concern for those less fortunate than themselves, which took effect in practical action.
I saw them treated like dirt (oh, very kindly & superciliously) by people who had vastly more of this world's goods than they could ever dream of.
But I know that this was seen through a child's eyes, with a child's understanding. I'm an adult now & I know that adversely labelling all people who remind me of those long-dead others is simply prejudice.
However, in some instances, the same traits do appear.
We have to accept that in large political movements, our fellow travellers may very well be ghastly human beings.
Whisper it, but we might also have to accept the possibility that our 'fellow travellers' think we are ghastly human beings.
Oh, very true. The righties despise me as a sopping wet TINO and think that transgender people epitomise everything they hate about modern society's supposed obsession with identity poltiics.
OT. A russian helicopter coming back from delivering aid to Aleppo in Syria has been shot down. There's already footage out on twitter of men literally dancing on the dead bodies of the airmen. Dont look for it.
If Putin wanted an excuse for total war, he now has it.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I doubt we'll agree, but the Tories I know don't despise anyone. That's not because they're somehow loftier beings, but because the Tory party is not a moral crusade. Labour tend to get flak because they're fiscally incontinent and over-sentimental about public institutions.
Compassion is not the exclusive preserve of either party. Nor is politesse.
I do agree with what you say.
I recognise that my responses & perceptions spring from childhood experiences, growing up on a council estate and attending the local parish church. We were very much the wrong side of the tracks for the rest of the congregation and the attitude we experienced there has left an indelible mark.
I knew my parents to be decent, hard-working people with great concern for those less fortunate than themselves, which took effect in practical action.
I saw them treated like dirt (oh, very kindly & superciliously) by people who had vastly more of this world's goods than they could ever dream of.
But I know that this was seen through a child's eyes, with a child's understanding. I'm an adult now & I know that adversely labelling all people who remind me of those long-dead others is simply prejudice.
However, in some instances, the same traits do appear.
We have to accept that in large political movements, our fellow travellers may very well be ghastly human beings.
Whisper it, but we might also have to accept the possibility that our 'fellow travellers' think we are ghastly human beings.
Oh, very true. The righties despise me as a sopping wet TINO and think that transgender people epitomise everything they hate about modern society's supposed obsession with identity poltiics.
I doubt 1/10 gives a second thought to transgenderism.
I certainly don't want to back Corbyn at the current odds but I'm not sure Smith is value either, so I guess I agree with David that Betfair has it about right.
It seems to me that you would have to be in full-on Kool-Aid mode to support Corbyn now and that makes me nervous of betting on him. Are there really *that* many people on the left who want to give up on power? But then again, it seems the answer to that question is yes.
There's a respectable argument for backing Corbyn if you want to win an election. The Blairite strategy worked well against post-Thatcherite Tories, but the current Tories are Blairites themselves. They are also better resourced than Labour. So a pitch for centre triangulation is likely to work much better for the Tories than Labour.
So given that the conventional approach has so little chance of working going with a radical approach that enthuses the left but fails dismally could be the best option. It leaves the post 2020 Labour Party large in terms of members, poor in terms of MPs, battle hardened and chastened by a big defeat. Bad news for the country as a whole, but the 2025 Labour Party full of people who now know how politics works and have direct experience of how it can go wrong could be pretty formidable against a tired Tory Party that has had it too easy in power. And lots of Labour leaders have come from the left.
I am not saying I advocate it, just not to assume that Corbyn winning is necessarily the worst outcome for the Labour Party.
The best case scenario - and one that would probably justify the Leave vote - is remaining part of the single market and getting greater access to other big markets elsewhere in the world. If we don't get that, then voting to Leave will have been shown to be a mistake from an economic and living standards perspective.
It is very unlikely, but not impossible, we will get greater access to other big markets elsewhere in the world than we do now. Remaining in the single market will almost certainly be an option, but not one the Government seems minded to take at present.
My settled view of Brexit is it's a mistake*, but a mistake we will have to live with and deal with.
* A mistake in the "Talleyrand" sense of an unforced decision that leaves us worse off. There are philosophical arguments for and against Brexit in the abstract.
I think a new set of trade deals outside of the EU that gets close to what we have is feasible over the medium term and is worth striving for. If we are very unlikely to compensate for EU market access elsewhere, it makes the EU single market even more vital to us. We need to make important decisions about what compromises we can tolerate to maintain our prosperity. It isn't helpful if one faction just folds its arms and the other faction denies reality.
In the medium term the terms of engagement with the single market are a source of uncertainty and I do not believe it is in the UK's interests to let this drag on indefinitely.
Economically this is probably true (assuming Brexit actually happens rather than being endlessly postponed) but I don't think the political incentives match. When all decisions risk greatly narking off a significant chunk of voters, politicians will do whatever they can to avoid making a decision.
Slightly cynical and therefore probably true. But there is a deadline. The Tories will not want an election without Brexit being a done deal. If they do there is too much risk of their faultlines opening up again as well as a haemorrhage to UKIP. There would also be the risk of losing some of their remainer support to Labour if they were minded to offer a rematch.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
I doubt we'll agree, but the Tories I know don't despise anyone. That's not because they're somehow loftier beings, but because the Tory party is not a moral crusade. Labour tend to get flak because they're fiscally incontinent and over-sentimental about public institutions.
Compassion is not the exclusive preserve of either party. Nor is politesse.
I
But I know that this was seen through a child's eyes, with a child's understanding. I'm an adult now & I know that adversely labelling all people who remind me of those long-dead others is simply prejudice.
However, in some instances, the same traits do appear.
We have to accept that in large political movements, our fellow travellers may very well be ghastly human beings.
Whisper it, but we might also have to accept the possibility that our 'fellow travellers' think we are ghastly human beings.
Oh, very true. The righties despise me as a sopping wet TINO and think that transgender people epitomise everything they hate about modern society's supposed obsession with identity poltiics.
I doubt 1/10 gives a second thought to transgenderism.
And those that do probably just dismiss it all as a bit of attention seeking, and literally think nothing more about it.
We don't "all know" May is enjoying a honeymoon. We *think* that she is. Important distinction.
16 point lead in ICM, 12 in YouGov. I'd say there is a honeymoon A shame she ruled out a GE. but it just wouldn't be cricket in the middle of Labour's leadership election.
It's more than that - the Conservatives would have expected to have been well behind by now in this parliament. Their position now is around 20% relative to Labour than it was in the last parliament, and they still went on to win a majority from that. Meanwhile we are saddled with a delusional Labour leader who claims that Labour is in a position to win a snap general election and a large cult of followers engaging in groupthink who hang on his every word.
Leavers have always understood there would be turbulence from Brexit whilst dismissing the fantasy peddled by Remain of never-ending apple pie and ice cream as they claimed that staying in the Euro Mini Mart was the abolition of boom and bust.
There are far greater opportunities and riches beyond. The sooner we get there, the better.
A reply to an e-mail I sent someone (with whom I've exchanged multiple e-mails over years) was diverted for reasons beyond me into a spam folder. It was only by chance I happened upon it. Technology can sometimes screw things up.
It isn't helpful if one faction just folds its arms and the other faction denies reality.
The only way to overcome this is to start by creating as much consensus as possible on what our fundamental national interests are.
If either side starts from the assumption that maximising the GDP of UK Plc over the medium and long term is the overriding concern then we will continue to have a dialogue of the deaf.
Jones sets out his strong credentials as a Corbyn supporter and sets out the problems the Corbynistas face but are not tackling. A theme is the gap between what the public want and what the left wing offer.
Unfortunately, my interpretation of the solution is someone like Blair who can take opposing positions at the same time, lying to the public and manipulating the party faithful.
That's quite brutal from Jones. I thought initially his interview with Corbyn the other day was far too soft, but actually it appear to have been a very well placed trap, has allowed Corbyn to talk himself into a whole world of trouble.
Guido First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
As I said, I think we're headong for about 0.2-0.4% growth in the next quarter based on the sugar rush of currency depreciation.
There is little evidence that the pounds decline will be of any real benefit. The same lack of depreciation stimulus was seen after the 2008 recession. The UK manufacturing economy isn't a low margin, low skilled one where small currency depreciations make a big difference.
"Regarding the further decline in manufacturing output, Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said today:
.... although exporters did report a boost from the weaker pound.
However, the improvement in exports was less marked than previously estimated, blamed in part on sluggish overseas demand. The downside of the currency was an upsurge in input price inflation to a five-year high on the back of rising import costs.
David Noble, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, said this rise will be particularly painful for smaller businesses:
Purchasing prices rose at levels not seen for half a decade, with SMEs bearing the brunt of rising input prices while larger corporates were more able to cope. And though export orders rose for the second month in response to the weaker pound, this was not enough to sustain the sector or make up any shortfall from the sluggish domestic market.
Mr Noble said hiring deteriorated at the sharpest rate in three-and-a-half years, “as businesses chose redundancy and restructuring to secure themselves against more possible bad news ahead.”
In the medium term the terms of engagement with the single market are a source of uncertainty and I do not believe it is in the UK's interests to let this drag on indefinitely.
Economically this is probably true (assuming Brexit actually happens rather than being endlessly postponed) but I don't think the political incentives match. When all decisions risk greatly narking off a significant chunk of voters, politicians will do whatever they can to avoid making a decision.
Slightly cynical and therefore probably true. But there is a deadline. The Tories will not want an election without Brexit being a done deal. If they do there is too much risk of their faultlines opening up again as well as a haemorrhage to UKIP. There would also be the risk of losing some of their remainer support to Labour if they were minded to offer a rematch.
The fault-lines are worse with a deal. It's control immigration vs market access, which is an even more unbridgeable gap than in vs out. What they always like to do in these situations is to punt the implementation to the other side of the election, so that they can: 1) Let both sides think they're going to get what they want 2) Scare UKIP-curious voters that if they fail to elect a Tory, the other side will get in and _not_ give them what they want.
It isn't helpful if one faction just folds its arms and the other faction denies reality.
The only way to overcome this is to start by creating as much consensus as possible on what our fundamental national interests are.
If either side starts from the assumption that maximising the GDP of UK Plc over the medium and long term is the overriding concern then we will continue to have a dialogue of the deaf.
Interesting. What are our fundamental national interests,in your view, in terms of choices we can make for the post-Brexit settlement?
Guido First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
As I said, I think we're headong for about 0.2-0.4% growth in the next quarter based on the sugar rush of currency depreciation.
There is little evidence that the pounds decline will be of any real benefit. The same lack of depreciation stimulus was seen after the 2008 recession. The UK manufacturing economy isn't a low margin, low skilled one where small currency depreciations make a big difference.
"Regarding the further decline in manufacturing output, Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said today:
.... although exporters did report a boost from the weaker pound.
However, the improvement in exports was less marked than previously estimated, blamed in part on sluggish overseas demand. The downside of the currency was an upsurge in input price inflation to a five-year high on the back of rising import costs.
David Noble, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, said this rise will be particularly painful for smaller businesses:
Purchasing prices rose at levels not seen for half a decade, with SMEs bearing the brunt of rising input prices while larger corporates were more able to cope. And though export orders rose for the second month in response to the weaker pound, this was not enough to sustain the sector or make up any shortfall from the sluggish domestic market.
Mr Noble said hiring deteriorated at the sharpest rate in three-and-a-half years, “as businesses chose redundancy and restructuring to secure themselves against more possible bad news ahead.”
The Owen Jones piece is pretty damning stuff and well worth a read and even more so coming from a previously impeccable Corbynite source who will now be denounced as a Blairite stooge. Unfortunately its circulation so far looks to be pretty limited - the links from the likes of the Huffington Post and this site aren't enough. It's not exactly complimentary to the Guardian so I doubt if they will run it. It will need to be pretty widely quoted from in order to reach a lot of Labour members with a vote. Perhaps Labour MPs writing to their constitutency members will do so.
I am rather soft-left, but what I mean by "people like me" is "people who don't have much going for them". Not necessarily outright unfortunate (e.g. disabled in some way) but the less intelligent, the lesser educated, less cultured, less sophisticated, less of everything. The people who wouldn't be chosen in a job interview, because someone else is always more suitable/cleverer/brighter/etc.
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
Anne- Well as a Conservative I definitely do not think this way-and whilst I'm sure some might do I can assure you that in my experience this is not the case
Jones sets out his strong credentials as a Corbyn supporter and sets out the problems the Corbynistas face but are not tackling. A theme is the gap between what the public want and what the left wing offer.
Unfortunately, my interpretation of the solution is someone like Blair who can take opposing positions at the same time, lying to the public and manipulating the party faithful.
That's quite brutal from Jones. I thought initially his interview with Corbyn the other day was far too soft, but actually it appear to have been a very well placed trap, has allowed Corbyn to talk himself into a whole world of trouble.
Just letting Corbyn talk allows him to show how vacuous he is. The problem is that his cult are not listening to his words. He is a symbol and they are attaching their own hopes, fears and aspirations to him.
Mr. Surbiton, I remain unpersuaded that leaving the EU will have comparable long-term consequences to the murder of Alexander Severus.
Mr. Notme, quite.
It reminds me of an ITV News piece from a few years ago. Said inflation was the highest for 2-3 years. And then said prices were rising 'like never before'.
Comments
After all the underhand tactics his opposition have employed against him - trying to keep him off the ballot paper, raising the price of buying a vote from £3 to £25, disenfranchising 130k members who joined since January, I would say he should be forgiven for being politically astute enough to avoid an unnecessary possible banana skin.
ICAEW looking at the situation in the same way I did, no contraction just a period of weaker growth until we figure out what we want to do wrt the EU.
Then we decide to leave and things get worse for the economy.
Leavers react by blaming "doom mongering from the former remain camp".
The one thing I predicted about a possible Leave victory that I was absolutely certain of was that the winning side would pin any deficiencies of Brexit onto the other side: no plan for Leave - that's the fault of Remain; things not going well - talking Britain down; no consensus on how to solve difficult problems - Remainers unable to accept the result
If I have to pick between being despised & being hated venomously, I'll accept being despised.
And one further item: it's accepted that people tend to grow more conservative as they grow older, but that tendency shouldn't disguise the fact that older people remember the hard left as they were in the mid-20th century, when the venomous hatred was openly displayed all over the place.
Oh, and good morning, everybody.
(edited to change "should " to "shouldn't")
Given the description, I'd suspect soft-left?
"Since 2007, the (Joseph Rowntree) trust has given three grants to Cageprisoners, described by The Telegraph as a "controversial Islamic rights group fronted by a man charged with attending a terror training camp in Syria",[3] totaling £305,000, to support the work of Moazzam Begg.[4][5][6] Lord Carlile, formerly the British Government’s independent reviewer of anti-terrorism legislation, said: "I would never advise anybody to give money to CagePrisoners. I have concerns about the group. There are civil liberty organisations which I do give money to but CagePrisoners is most certainly not one of them."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Rowntree_Charitable_Trust
As for talking ourselves into a recession, it is a very real possibility.
@Coral: Who's getting relegated from the Championship? Villa at 20/1 anyone?
Bet: https://t.co/oxndVebPYB https://t.co/x4QSemVdxu
But as I write this, I realise that this is what Conservative tend to despise, whereas the hatred of the left is merely aimed at people who don't agree with them. So a different definition for each side.
Rather hoping the books do better (starting with Kingdom Asunder) or I may be finding that out for myself.
But you Leavers won and to now blame bad consequences on Remainers is adding insult to injury.
Still Liam Fox has hired three civil servants in the US to man convention booths so all our problems are over. A shame the jobs are going to US nationals rather than UK citizens.
Compassion is not the exclusive preserve of either party. Nor is politesse.
After years of relentlessly negative propaganda about the EU from the sceptics and their media allies we Remainers are now meant to suck it up and put our backs into proving ourselves wrong and make the whole thing work!
It's not going to work that way - as someone succinctly pointed out on PB a while ago, everything that happened before June 23rd was the fault of the EU and everything that happens afterwards will be the fault of Brexit.
Obviously conservatives (again this is a caricature) are more comfortable with actual people. The problem, most recently displayed in Cameron's honours list, is that they tend to be very good at making a distinction between "people I know" (went to school with, daddy played golf with their uncle, and so on) and "other people". The former group are broadly virtuous, deserving, well-intentioned whereas the latter group are likely to be seen as responsible for any ill-fortune that befalls them, or, more simply, lazy scroungers.
To me it seems better, though sub-optimal, to have a government that has the broad aim of building a society in your interests, even if you suspect they hate you, than one that's building a society in its chums' interests. As Owen Jones' interesting article implies, Labour doesn't really have much chance of winning on the occasions it focuses on how much the different parts of the left-centre hate each other, rather than on how closely their respective interests align, so I don't think the chances of the "hateful left" ever being able to hate anyone from a position of elected office are particularly high.
They advocated Brexit as a strategy for the real world, not for some perfect universe where everybody was positive and united and no problems or criticism ever came their way. Brexit has to work despite the uncertainty and remnant opposition it was always going to run into, and it is lazy thinking simply to balance the opposition for the failure of the strategy (not that we are yet anywhere near being able to judge success or failure anyway).
To be honest, I suspect almost everyone thinks that.
To borrow a term from my field, we've unexpectedly changed the fitness function for UK businesses. Some will thrive, some will shrug it off and others will fail. It's the ratios between those three broad classes that will determine the short term economic costs of Brexit.
Absent any other data, my preference is to stick with the IFS estimates of around £20-40billion in opportunity costs (for government) by 2018. @MaxPB posted the ICAEW article downthread, seems like a reasonable assessment for Q3. My guess is it will be slightly worse - a modest contraction, due to the Brexit shock combined with a poor summer.
There are two delusions at play here: from Remainers who think we're staying in the EU and from Leavers who think breaking up our main relationships doesn't matter.
What he highlighted was that Brexit would mean that the UK would be responsible for its own laws again but that was not incompatible with them choosing to ensure that those laws were compatible (ie the same as) with the laws of the EU as a condition of us having certain market access arrangements with them for as long as we wanted that access. The phrase that he used more than once was "legal equivalence" and he seemed to think it would apply to our financial services sector in particular. He spoke with a clarity on the subject I have yet to hear from our mainstream politicians.
He was also very clear that if the price of remaining in the single market was freedom of movement that "was an option that we will not be taking up." As an insight to the sort of thinking that is going on in government it is worth a listen, particularly if you fast forward through the reformation guff.
I recognise that my responses & perceptions spring from childhood experiences, growing up on a council estate and attending the local parish church. We were very much the wrong side of the tracks for the rest of the congregation and the attitude we experienced there has left an indelible mark.
I knew my parents to be decent, hard-working people with great concern for those less fortunate than themselves, which took effect in practical action.
I saw them treated like dirt (oh, very kindly & superciliously) by people who had vastly more of this world's goods than they could ever dream of.
But I know that this was seen through a child's eyes, with a child's understanding. I'm an adult now & I know that adversely labelling all people who remind me of those long-dead others is simply prejudice.
However, in some instances, the same traits do appear.
Guido
First ever offshore rupee-denominated “masala” bond listed by an Indian company in post-Brexit London, the financial capital of the world.
30 Billion rupee bond follows first ever Chinese sovereign Yuan bond listing, neither Paris or Frankfurt had a hope. https://t.co/MzIH0wWouE
I do think we're in very good company though. Watching economists failing to predict, then rationalising global economic contortions is entertaining in its own right.
Electors must surely have been replaced in the past. Given that there are more than 500 each time and they are chosen months ahead (by the time of the conventions?), it's highly improbable that none have ever died after appointment and before the election, or more pertinently, before the electors are scheduled to vote in December.
It has happened that a vice-presidential candidate has withdrawn, namely Thomas Eagleton, George McGovern's Democratic running-mate in 1972, who withdrew on 1 August once it became known that he had several times been treated in hospital for depression, where twice he had received electroshock. Was there difficulty in Sargent Shriver replacing him? He might even be right. I don't think he's irrational about his chances. But in his book on the "deal", he puts a lot of emphasis on being willing to walk away. I think if anything the threshold at which he would withdraw is lower than for most candidates.
I don't really _like_ the right wing of 'my' party. There's still a whiff of the hang 'em and flog 'em types who don't really entertain the notion of the virtuous poor.
Equally, I'm repulsed by bien-pensant champagne socialists who champion a working class that they quite clearly despise.
Unfortunately, we have to work with and around these people in order to get things done.
PS Writing that as the scion of a council maisonette, outside lavvie, dirt poor working class family. Happy Yorkshire Day!
I have had a successful career and my life is a lot better than my parents. At no stage was I treated 'like dirt' although I was surrounded by people from a better off background than me. Making the most of your abilities is crucial if you want to progress and better yourself.
My perception, FWIW, is that there was considerable initial uncertainty which was greatly aggravated by the departure of Cameron and Osborne who were at a minimum a known and largely predictable commodity and generally pretty well regarded by those that influence markets. The rapid confirmation of a new PM and at least the appearance of a much more united party seems to have substantially addressed that and I suspect what we will see over the next few quarters is not much different from what was coming down the track anyway.
In the medium term the terms of engagement with the single market are a source of uncertainty and I do not believe it is in the UK's interests to let this drag on indefinitely.
My settled view of Brexit is it's a mistake*, but a mistake we will have to live with and deal with.
* A mistake in the "Talleyrand" sense of an unforced decision that leaves us worse off. There are philosophical arguments for and against Brexit in the abstract.
One thing I really dislike about the Labour party is the way they (some of them!) have taught the younger members to "hate" Lady Thatcher, a mere figure from history to people of that age. Stirring the youngsters up with positive ideas aimed at counteracting the results of Thatcherite policies is one thing, but that isn't what has happened. A party that actively teaches youngsters to hate is not one I could vote for.
If you want to raise money, particularly in currency markets, you come to London.
The only way the Brexit issue can affect that is if the EU countries try to withdraw their banks and finance houses from London, by forcing them to operate from inside the EU.
However, if they do that, those institutions are likely to find ways around those laws - by incorporating, or creating subsidiaries, outside the EU. And, remember, London hosts US, Japanese, Middle Eastern, African and Chinese finance houses who would happily take business off EU domiciled banks.
The weight of money is in London and should remain so.
This is not to say that in other areas of finance - banking, insurance, etc. - the EU could not do a great deal to scupper London's pre-eminence.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/01/uk-claims-global-victory-with-first-masala-bond-issued-outside-i/
While I wouldn't deny the impact of the blessed Margaret, she was unlucky in that de-industrialisation happened on her watch - it was inevitable. She was lucky in that the IT revolution more than compensated for it in terms of the broader economy.
https://medium.com/@OwenJones84/questions-all-jeremy-corbyn-supporters-need-to-answer-b3e82ace7ed3#.ystgl1dln
Jones sets out his strong credentials as a Corbyn supporter and sets out the problems the Corbynistas face but are not tackling. A theme is the gap between what the public want and what the left wing offer.
Unfortunately, my interpretation of the solution is someone like Blair who can take opposing positions at the same time, lying to the public and manipulating the party faithful.
At the time, I was a European account manager (selling into Unilever). From my perspective, all that was happening was a slight worsening in our bid/win ratio. From a company perspective, it was a disaster.
Economies are statistical.
If Putin wanted an excuse for total war, he now has it.
It seems to me that you would have to be in full-on Kool-Aid mode to support Corbyn now and that makes me nervous of betting on him. Are there really *that* many people on the left who want to give up on power? But then again, it seems the answer to that question is yes.
There's a respectable argument for backing Corbyn if you want to win an election. The Blairite strategy worked well against post-Thatcherite Tories, but the current Tories are Blairites themselves. They are also better resourced than Labour. So a pitch for centre triangulation is likely to work much better for the Tories than Labour.
So given that the conventional approach has so little chance of working going with a radical approach that enthuses the left but fails dismally could be the best option. It leaves the post 2020 Labour Party large in terms of members, poor in terms of MPs, battle hardened and chastened by a big defeat. Bad news for the country as a whole, but the 2025 Labour Party full of people who now know how politics works and have direct experience of how it can go wrong could be pretty formidable against a tired Tory Party that has had it too easy in power. And lots of Labour leaders have come from the left.
I am not saying I advocate it, just not to assume that Corbyn winning is necessarily the worst outcome for the Labour Party.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/video_and_audio/headlines/36939843
I think a new set of trade deals outside of the EU that gets close to what we have is feasible over the medium term and is worth striving for. If we are very unlikely to compensate for EU market access elsewhere, it makes the EU single market even more vital to us. We need to make important decisions about what compromises we can tolerate to maintain our prosperity. It isn't helpful if one faction just folds its arms and the other faction denies reality.
'Tory darling headteacher accused of punishing kids who can't afford lunch by putting them in isolation'
http://tinyurl.com/grwpc5u
There are far greater opportunities and riches beyond. The sooner we get there, the better.
A reply to an e-mail I sent someone (with whom I've exchanged multiple e-mails over years) was diverted for reasons beyond me into a spam folder. It was only by chance I happened upon it. Technology can sometimes screw things up.
If either side starts from the assumption that maximising the GDP of UK Plc over the medium and long term is the overriding concern then we will continue to have a dialogue of the deaf.
There is little evidence that the pounds decline will be of any real benefit. The same lack of depreciation stimulus was seen after the 2008 recession. The UK manufacturing economy isn't a low margin, low skilled one where small currency depreciations make a big difference.
"Regarding the further decline in manufacturing output, Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit, said today:
.... although exporters did report a boost from the weaker pound.
However, the improvement in exports was less marked than previously estimated, blamed in part on sluggish overseas demand. The downside of the currency was an upsurge in input price inflation to a five-year high on the back of rising import costs.
David Noble, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, said this rise will be particularly painful for smaller businesses:
Purchasing prices rose at levels not seen for half a decade, with SMEs bearing the brunt of rising input prices while larger corporates were more able to cope. And though export orders rose for the second month in response to the weaker pound, this was not enough to sustain the sector or make up any shortfall from the sluggish domestic market.
Mr Noble said hiring deteriorated at the sharpest rate in three-and-a-half years, “as businesses chose redundancy and restructuring to secure themselves against more possible bad news ahead.”
https://next.ft.com/content/dc4e902c-371e-3b7b-8d0c-09b8258b9aae
1) Let both sides think they're going to get what they want
2) Scare UKIP-curious voters that if they fail to elect a Tory, the other side will get in and _not_ give them what they want.
Congratulations, Leavers: You have achieved what you wanted.
Edited extra bit: Highest*, ahem. I was caught in two minds and made the 'Hello morning' mistake.
At least, that is what I am hoping. Those who rely on imports, like my company, have been right royally screwed.
Well as a Conservative I definitely do not think this way-and whilst I'm sure some might do I can assure you that in my experience this is not the case
Mr. Notme, quite.
It reminds me of an ITV News piece from a few years ago. Said inflation was the highest for 2-3 years. And then said prices were rising 'like never before'.