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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why at a 12% chance Owen Smith is now the value LAB leaders

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  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    So -posting the news is now cheering.. Welcome to Brexitland where only the good news should ever be posted.

    They are nearly as paranoid as the Corbynistas, where posting what he actually says and does is "smearing"...

    Buy tinfoil shares. There's some good economic news :)
    The Brexiteers, Corbynistas, Trumpites and Trumpite–Brexiteer–Corbynistas would get on very well.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Jobabob said:

    Looks like the DNC was a big success.

    Meanwhile, Hillary's ratings are bouncing back and she has reestablished a clear lead over an increasingly bonkers Trump in the RCP average.

    Worth noting that many on here forecast that the DNC would be a disaster, and that Hillary would get no bounce.

    A lesson learned for some, I would hope.

    Before you get too smug, wait for things to settle down over the next couple of weeks. We are at peak Hilary right now, her lead will shrink. It's still very close.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Barristerblog: Quite superb from @DavidAllenGreen on how the Leavers are in denial abt the scale of the difficulties of Brexit.
    https://t.co/yMVvsYYj36

    Yes. What the article says, though, is that the difficulties arise quite specifically from the fact that Article 50 was designed not to work - it was purely there to booby trap the UK. If true, that is the most powerful argument FOR brexit that I have seen to date. Perhaps that is the point you were making?
    Just cos you're paranoid....
    No, that is what the article actually says. It is by a remainer. I voted remain. Had you thought of adopting a "think before posting" policy? Or "read before posting" even?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    So -posting the news is now cheering.. Welcome to Brexitland where only the good news should ever be posted.

    They are nearly as paranoid as the Corbynistas, where posting what he actually says and does is "smearing"...

    Buy tinfoil shares. There's some good economic news :)
    The Brexiteers, Corbynistas, Trumpites and Trumpite–Brexiteer–Corbynistas would get on very well.
    There, there, there.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/britain-is-too-awful-for-cultured-and-sexually-skilful-remain-voters-like-me-20160801111657
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,944
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    And yet Google and GSK have pledged £500m for a new research centre in the UK after Brexit.

    Umm, we haven't left yet
    MaxPB said:

    Stick to copying and pasting stuff from people smarter than you.

    Luckily, you don't qualify
    The intention to leave has been signalled and all decisions are being made on that basis. You are a fool if you think that Google are investing on the basis that A50 will not be served. As always, you're in the idiot pile.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:

    And yet Google and GSK have pledged £500m for a new research centre in the UK after Brexit.

    Umm, we haven't left yet

    Is this going to be the new normal, terrible things will happen, but not until Brexit officially takes place?

    Prediction, nothing bad will happen from Brexit, the bad stuff is going to be one of those things that the Remainers say will always be about to happen but never does.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,042
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Barristerblog: Quite superb from @DavidAllenGreen on how the Leavers are in denial abt the scale of the difficulties of Brexit.
    https://t.co/yMVvsYYj36

    Yes. What the article says, though, is that the difficulties arise quite specifically from the fact that Article 50 was designed not to work - it was purely there to booby trap the UK. If true, that is the most powerful argument FOR brexit that I have seen to date. Perhaps that is the point you were making?
    Just cos you're paranoid....
    No, that is what the article actually says. It is by a remainer. I voted remain. Had you thought of adopting a "think before posting" policy? Or "read before posting" even?
    My comment was directed at whoever said:
    "the fact that Article 50 was designed not to work - it was purely there to booby trap the UK. If true, that is the most powerful argument FOR brexit that I have seen to date."
    Maybe I should have said 'just cos one is paranoid...'. I meant that sort of 'you'.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    DanSmith said:

    Jobabob said:

    Looks like the DNC was a big success.

    Meanwhile, Hillary's ratings are bouncing back and she has reestablished a clear lead over an increasingly bonkers Trump in the RCP average.

    Worth noting that many on here forecast that the DNC would be a disaster, and that Hillary would get no bounce.

    A lesson learned for some, I would hope.

    Before you get too smug, wait for things to settle down over the next couple of weeks. We are at peak Hilary right now, her lead will shrink. It's still very close.
    It's not that close but it is wide open. Hillary has a clear lead but it's one that could disappear in the wrong (for her) circumstances.

    Trump however will have to work harder than most candidates because of his toxicity to many voters. He'll need to persuade them to stay at home rather than vote for him.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,042
    Jobabob said:

    Looks like the DNC was a big success.

    Meanwhile, Hillary's ratings are bouncing back and she has reestablished a clear lead over an increasingly bonkers Trump in the RCP average.

    Worth noting that many on here forecast that the DNC would be a disaster, and that Hillary would get no bounce.

    A lesson learned for some, I would hope.

    RealClearPolitics has Hillary lead of 2.2%
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
    538 has it at 6.6%:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    So -posting the news is now cheering.. Welcome to Brexitland where only the good news should ever be posted.

    They are nearly as paranoid as the Corbynistas, where posting what he actually says and does is "smearing"...

    Buy tinfoil shares. There's some good economic news :)
    The Brexiteers, Corbynistas, Trumpites and Trumpite–Brexiteer–Corbynistas would get on very well.
    There, there, there.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/features/britain-is-too-awful-for-cultured-and-sexually-skilful-remain-voters-like-me-20160801111657
    :lol:
  • For those that haven't seen Brass Eye come to life:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6n8IhAhjKQ

    I am not generally a fan of the motley commentariat that Guido musters below the line, but this little snippet deserves to be shared:

    Fun fact of the day: in a parallel universe he came out and said i could have let them all live

    Having read below the line on Guido do you now feel the need to shower in dettol?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    NEW THREAD
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Jobabob said:

    Looks like the DNC was a big success.

    Meanwhile, Hillary's ratings are bouncing back and she has reestablished a clear lead over an increasingly bonkers Trump in the RCP average.

    Worth noting that many on here forecast that the DNC would be a disaster, and that Hillary would get no bounce.

    A lesson learned for some, I would hope.

    Have you looked at the Statewide as opposed to the National voteshare polls?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,044
    john_zims said:

    @surbiton

    'Apart from the fall in the value of the pound, nothing else has happened so far.

    The reason for this dramatic fall in orders is CONFIDENCE. Confidence is down all over the place.

    The Bank of England will be cutting interest rates to 0.25% in the next weeks. Even in 2008 they did not have to do it. Things are bad, BAD, very BAD.'


    Oh dear out comes the drama queen, end of the world and all that good stuff.



    This is just turning into a dialogue of the deaf, whatever economic ills befall us in the coming years Leavers will forever be in denial that Brexit had any part to play in it even if it becomes painfully obvious to most that it did.

    The jury is still out in terms of long-term economic consequences but hardline Brexiters have become entrenched in their views and I cannot conceive of a scenario where they would ever admit that they were wrong.

    The pattern that I am seeing emerge is that following a bit of bad economic news one of the usual suspects on PB comes up with a theory that "explains" it away and the rest pile in patting them on the back saying "of course you are right, nowt to do with Brexit"

    Whether that strategy can hold throughout the coming months and years if things turn sour remains to be see. Be very interesting to see how public attitudes to Brexit change in the event of a downturn.
  • Jobabob said:

    Looks like the DNC was a big success.

    Meanwhile, Hillary's ratings are bouncing back and she has reestablished a clear lead over an increasingly bonkers Trump in the RCP average.

    Worth noting that many on here forecast that the DNC would be a disaster, and that Hillary would get no bounce.

    A lesson learned for some, I would hope.

    RealClearPolitics has Hillary lead of 2.2%
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
    538 has it at 6.6%:
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
    You can't do that! RealClearPolitics is an average of recent pools. 538 is their estimate of the probability of Clinton winning based on recent polls, after adjustment for unwinding of the Clinton convention bounce.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,044

    Scott_P said:

    Casino said people shouldn't be cheering negative data, that is only right.

    Who exactly has been cheering today?
    You have been doing that every day since the referendum. Pasting up every negative comment, report, forecast, guesstimate. FFS get a life man/woman.

    Scott_P said:

    What I can't understand is cheering any piece of negative data or setback, and inviting others to own it whilst doing nothing themselves

    And there in a nutshell is the Brexiteers' problem.

    What, exactly, would you have people do?

    Read the FT article. There are no simple, concrete, immediate, obvious or necessary steps that can be taken now.

    Everything is in a state of flux, and resolving any one issue is frustrated by all of the others.

    Meanwhile the economy takes a hit, as predicted.

    In the words of another Brexiteer, you won. Suck it up!! Stop whining about it...
    A start would be to accept the democrat decision the nation took and pledge to help make it work in whatever way one can, rather than highlight every piece of negativity, shrug one's shoulders, and say nothing to do with me 'guv.

    In most cases the concrete action will simply be to point out the UK is still open for business, has a fantastic future and life goes on.
    You mean like Euro sceptics pledged to make the EU work in whatever way they could?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,342
    OllyT said:

    Scott_P said:

    Casino said people shouldn't be cheering negative data, that is only right.

    Who exactly has been cheering today?
    You have been doing that every day since the referendum. Pasting up every negative comment, report, forecast, guesstimate. FFS get a life man/woman.

    Scott_P said:

    What I can't understand is cheering any piece of negative data or setback, and inviting others to own it whilst doing nothing themselves

    And there in a nutshell is the Brexiteers' problem.

    What, exactly, would you have people do?

    Read the FT article. There are no simple, concrete, immediate, obvious or necessary steps that can be taken now.

    Everything is in a state of flux, and resolving any one issue is frustrated by all of the others.

    Meanwhile the economy takes a hit, as predicted.

    In the words of another Brexiteer, you won. Suck it up!! Stop whining about it...
    A start would be to accept the democrat decision the nation took and pledge to help make it work in whatever way one can, rather than highlight every piece of negativity, shrug one's shoulders, and say nothing to do with me 'guv.

    In most cases the concrete action will simply be to point out the UK is still open for business, has a fantastic future and life goes on.
    You mean like Euro sceptics pledged to make the EU work in whatever way they could?
    Indeed. In a democracy we are required to accept the outcome of a vote but we are not, if we did not support the victors, accountable for it, nor are we required to abandon any criticism of it. It is our right to continue to oppose, just the same as the victors are entitled to govern. That said, it would clearly be sensible for us to do our best to make the best of whatever situation comes along, particularly as it affects us and those around us. But when making posts to an Internet forum we should celebrate the fact that we have the freedom to point out the deficiencies of our rulers without their having the right to redirect our efforts toward the inside of a cell or into mining salt somewhere cold.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The sight of salty remoaners wanking their cocks off vigorously to fantasies of our children being forced to eat their own excrement to survive is a rather fetching look.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    "Oh, it's awful" fap fap fap "manufacturing demand is down" fap fap fap "weak pound" keep going "consumer confidence is at KEEP GOING I'M NEARLY NRRRRGHHH" *remoaner jizzes everywhere*
This discussion has been closed.