RESULT July 26
The Hangers and Forest (Con defence) on East Hampshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 42, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 40)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 983 (69%), Independent 257 (18%), Labour 184 (13%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 37,346 (51%) LEAVE 36,576 (49%) on a turnout of 82%
Candidates duly nominated:
Comments
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https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/758648810243489794
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'
Mark Senior.
https://ukgeneralelection2020.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/notional-results-for-parliamentary.html
There is only so much to say about POTUS and Jezza vs the other one.
Council elections are the heralds other elections, and can be quite predictive. LDs pounding the pavements and "Winning here" are the workout and training session before the real match. Many LD MPs came up via local government and I expect the next batch to do the same.
Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
Google says that Zambia and Zanzibar are 963 miles apart.
Could you have meant Zheleznodorozhny?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles
However Hillary is still stuck at the low 70's level among democrats that is stable since at least April.
We will know by Monday the extent of Hillary's bounce.
2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%
Any other thoughts?
Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%
Or made the Supreme Court part of the House of Lords again.
The LD will have to rely on those who left to the Tories in the last election, so yes the LD performance will have to rely on dissatisfied liberal Tories in rural areas for many years to come.
An interesting view of the Canary Wharf area and arriving at Heron Quays DLR station at 6 mins 40 secs on this video:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP1DADTYq98
Labour doesn't put a candidate in a Totnes council by-election, allowing the LD to win there, and immediately he gives the LD chances of coming second in a GE in the year 2025.
I give a better chance this song will be more accurate about the year 2525:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic
Con 29%
UKIP 1%
Others 0%
SNP 0%
LD 0%
Of course some people do vote differently in local and national elections but most people vote the same .
What the results do show is that the Conservative high support in the national opinion polls is as soft as putty and hard to translate into real votes .
Bristol NW: Corbyn
Swansea West: Corbyn
Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
Colchester: Corbyn
South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1
Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
Southampton Test : Corbyn
Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith
Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
East Devon: Corbyn
Erith and Thamesmead. Corbyn
I avoid polls that are either partisan or have proven serious methodology problems.
I advise you to do the same.
In 2012 I put down 7 (that's right seven) tracking polls, Rasmussen included (others where PPP, Gallup, IPSOS, IBT, RAND, ABC ) , but I never included them in my rolling average , which gave me a final result of Obama 50-Romney 47.5 .
Whilst an LD, I was far more bearish on the party here over recent years.
By the way, The Daily Mash is often very good at capturing the mood of (much of) the nation. Their take on the Owen Smith is now in: "Everyone worried Owen Smith will try to sell them a vacuum cleaner."
BRITONS are worried that Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith might try to sell them life insurance or solar panels, they have revealed.
Many have noted Smith’s resemblance to the sort of salesperson who talks you into buying unnecessary insurance cover or a top-of-the range vacuum cleaner when a £35 one would do.
Teacher Donna Sheridan said: “I’ve got this nagging fear there’ll be a knock on the door and it’ll be Owen asking if he can come in to discuss solar panels.
“Or maybe I’ll go to Currys for a telly and he’ll be there and persuade me it’s ‘worth spending a bit extra’ and I’ll end up with a 75” HD smart TV when I only wanted it to occasionally watch the snooker.
By election caused by a lib dem cllr resigning and subsequently being arrested in fraud charges.
Still expect the LDs to win but they wont get the surge in Carshalton as in the rest of the country.
Sleaze kills.
There have been over 200 lds in the ward today knocking up versus the Tories 40-50.
Shows they are worried.
https://insidecroydon.com/2016/07/24/dont-mention-the-arrest-libdems-mislead-by-omission/#more-35065
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones.
The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
https://twitter.com/ronniejm67/status/757886168658767873
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
I get a Con majority of 162 and Lab on 156 seats on:
Con 44%, Lab 22%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%, Green 4.5 %, Nats 5.5%.
Not implausible at all under Jezza.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.