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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s local elections report: What’s happened so far this week & tonight’s preview

RESULT July 26
The Hangers and Forest (Con defence) on East Hampshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 42, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 40)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 983 (69%), Independent 257 (18%), Labour 184 (13%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 37,346 (51%) LEAVE 36,576 (49%) on a turnout of 82%
Candidates duly nominated:

Read the full story here

DavidL

First?

SquareRoot

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

grabcocque

Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)

grabcocque

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

Filthy Firsts on the slide.

DavidL

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

PClipp

grabcocque said:

Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)

Most certainly. They are much more interesting that the tedious repetition of the same old CCHQ spin.

Philip_Thompson

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

I'd make Lib Dems the favourite. They have the infrastructure, personnel and experience. They have everything they need to be third party apart from public support but nature abhors a vacuum.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

BBC Parliament showing Democratic National Convention session from last night at the moment. Biden speech about to begin, followed by Bloomberg, Kaine, Obama.

tlg86

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

They're being rehabilitated slowly. At the moment people are comfortable with them being on the parish council, but aren't yet prepared to go back to them in a national election. Should Labour continue to tear itself apart then that might change.

TCPoliticalBetting

grabcocque said:

Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)

Lib Dems do. It gives them hope.

TCPoliticalBetting

Odd how BBC, Sky etc are reporting this as due to Brexit.

Lloyds Bank ‏@AskLloydsBank 3h3 hours ago
@_RudaMalpa_ Hi, I'm SG. The decision on branch closures was made pre the EUref vote & is due to...1/2
Lloyds Bank ‏@AskLloydsBank 3h3 hours ago
@_RudaMalpa_ ...changing customer behaviour & a greater uptake of digital services. 2/2 ^SG

Pulpstar

Massive result in Totnes

HYUFD

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

BBC Parliament showing Democratic National Convention session from last night at the moment. Biden speech about to begin, followed by Bloomberg, Kaine, Obama.

Yes, BBC Parliament is excellent. Has provided 3 hours of recorded coverage every evening from 7 30pm of both the GOP and Dem conventions for anyone who could not stay up most of the night before to watch it. I will probably stay up for Hillary's speech tonight though as I did for Trump last Thursday

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

Massive result in Totnes

And it's a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories.

Alistair

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

HYUFD

SeanT has posted a vine of himself in a hammock in Zanzibar thinking about ideas for a new book if anyone was wondering about his whereabouts
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/758648810243489794

AndyJS

grabcocque said:

Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)

Most of the members of the Vote2012 discussion forum do.

Pulpstar

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Massive result in Totnes

And it's a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories.

Lib Dems well in gear to hoover the soft left/central remain vote.

logical_song

grabcocque said:

Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)

Parish council results aren't generally reported here as they aren't very important.

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

Interesting. We need to wait a bit longer to see the polling tho

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

Interesting. We need to wait a bit longer to see the polling tho

Rasmussen has Hillary retaking a narrow lead today, 43% to 42% for Trump. Last week it was Trump 43% Clinton 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

logical_song

tlg86 said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

They're being rehabilitated slowly. At the moment people are comfortable with them being on the parish council, but aren't yet prepared to go back to them in a national election. Should Labour continue to tear itself apart then that might change.

It's not Parish Councils that are being reported here.

tlg86

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

They're being rehabilitated slowly. At the moment people are comfortable with them being on the parish council, but aren't yet prepared to go back to them in a national election. Should Labour continue to tear itself apart then that might change.

It's not Parish Councils that are being reported here.

Sorry, that was a joke, but the point stands that people vote differently in different elections.

RobD

Elections on a Wednesday? What has become of our country?

john_zims

@grabcocque

'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'

Mark Senior.

RobD

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

Interesting. We need to wait a bit longer to see the polling tho

Rasmussen has Hillary retaking a narrow lead today, 43% to 42% for Trump. Last week it was Trump 43% Clinton 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

MoE, surely?

nunu

Pulpstar said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

Massive result in Totnes

And it's a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories.

Lib Dems well in gear to hoover the soft left/central remain vote.

English Libdem surge!

logical_song

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

They're being rehabilitated slowly. At the moment people are comfortable with them being on the parish council, but aren't yet prepared to go back to them in a national election. Should Labour continue to tear itself apart then that might change.

It's not Parish Councils that are being reported here.

Sorry, that was a joke, but the point stands that people vote differently in different elections.

Agreed, I made that point earlier while posting about this:
https://ukgeneralelection2020.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/notional-results-for-parliamentary.html

HYUFD

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

Interesting. We need to wait a bit longer to see the polling tho

Rasmussen has Hillary retaking a narrow lead today, 43% to 42% for Trump. Last week it was Trump 43% Clinton 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

MoE, surely?

Oh yes, 3% either way but while still almost neck and neck it does look like Hillary will come out of the conventions with her nose just in front

foxinsoxuk

grabcocque said:

Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)

Of course we do! This is a site for political obsessives needing a junkie fix of real elections.

There is only so much to say about POTUS and Jezza vs the other one.

Council elections are the heralds other elections, and can be quite predictive. LDs pounding the pavements and "Winning here" are the workout and training session before the real match. Many LD MPs came up via local government and I expect the next batch to do the same.

Tim_B

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

Interesting. We need to wait a bit longer to see the polling tho

Two words that account - in part at least - for the DNC ratings: Emails and Bernie. It's been an incredible soap opera. By contrast the RNC was much less intriguing.

MikeSmithson

john_zims said:

@grabcocque

'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'

Mark Senior.

We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.

Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.

foxinsoxuk

RobD said:

Elections on a Wednesday? What has become of our country?

The Hampshire one was on a Tuesday. Creeping Americanisation surely.

MattW

HYUFD said:

SeanT has posted a vine of himself in a hammock in Zanzibar thinking about ideas for a new book if anyone was wondering about his whereabouts
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/758648810243489794

Hoping you are a friend of Theresa May, so she can use her Geography degree to help you find your way home :-D .

Google says that Zambia and Zanzibar are 963 miles apart.

Could you have meant Zheleznodorozhny?

EPG

The last two Liberal revivals were led by local elections rather than national waves. Thinking about it, FPTP almost obliges it to be so.

RobD

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

Elections on a Wednesday? What has become of our country?

The Hampshire one was on a Tuesday. Creeping Americanisation surely.

The worst. Next we'll have lame duck PMs hanging on for months.... titters.

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

john_zims said:

@grabcocque

'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'

Mark Senior.

We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.

Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.

The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences

Speedy

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

Interesting. We need to wait a bit longer to see the polling tho

Rasmussen has Hillary retaking a narrow lead today, 43% to 42% for Trump. Last week it was Trump 43% Clinton 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

MoE, surely?

Oh yes, 3% either way but while still almost neck and neck it does look like Hillary will come out of the conventions with her nose just in front

I'm looking at Gallup, so far Hillary has gained 2 points among Democrats since the start of the convention, at the same point last week Trump had gained 3 among Republicans.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

However Hillary is still stuck at the low 70's level among democrats that is stable since at least April.
We will know by Monday the extent of Hillary's bounce.

Tim_B

MattW said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT has posted a vine of himself in a hammock in Zanzibar thinking about ideas for a new book if anyone was wondering about his whereabouts
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/758648810243489794

Hoping you are a friend of Theresa May, so she can use her Geography degree to help you find your way home :-D .

Google says that Zambia and Zanzibar are 963 miles apart.

Could you have meant Zheleznodorozhny?

Judging from the picture, that hammock good be in a back garden somewhere in the region of Market Harborough...

Cookie

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

HYUFD

MattW said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT has posted a vine of himself in a hammock in Zanzibar thinking about ideas for a new book if anyone was wondering about his whereabouts
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/758648810243489794

Hoping you are a friend of Theresa May, so she can use her Geography degree to help you find your way home :-D .

Google says that Zambia and Zanzibar are 963 miles apart.

Could you have meant Zheleznodorozhny?

Apologies, sure I read it as Zanzibar earlier but probably glanced at it too quickly

Cookie

...actually, may be LDs more that that if they arrange some sort of pact with SDP2.

Cookie

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:

Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%

kle4

Cornwall still fertile territory for the LDs I see, they have to be in with a shout of winning back a seat or two if the Tories fade? Down to fourth in a few due to the massive drop, but 5-6% swinf would still get them a few.

kle4

tlg86 said:

logical_song said:

tlg86 said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

They're being rehabilitated slowly. At the moment people are comfortable with them being on the parish council, but aren't yet prepared to go back to them in a national election. Should Labour continue to tear itself apart then that might change.

It's not Parish Councils that are being reported here.

Sorry, that was a joke, but the point stands that people vote differently in different elections.

Yes, and people get too excited about the swings in upper piddlington, but it passes the political time.

Paul_Bedfordshire

I'm a bit disappointed that the tories have not moved the Queens Speech back to November 5th or thereabouts yet.

Or made the Supreme Court part of the House of Lords again.

foxinsoxuk

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

I think that Labour is more than 60% certain, the chance of overhauling the Tories is slight and the concentration of votes is such that Electoral Calculus still gives Labour a ton of seats on 15%. Even Jezza could manage that. It will take more than one election and split to put a stake through the Labour heart. Possibly in 2025 the LDs could overtake, or UKIP if there was some great Brexit disaster or betrayal.

Speedy

kle4 said:

Cornwall still fertile territory for the LDs I see, they have to be in with a shout of winning back a seat or two if the Tories fade? Down to fourth in a few due to the massive drop, but 5-6% swinf would still get them a few.

It will still require a generation for ex-LD voters to forget about the coalition, especially for left wing ex-LD.
The LD will have to rely on those who left to the Tories in the last election, so yes the LD performance will have to rely on dissatisfied liberal Tories in rural areas for many years to come.

HYUFD

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

Interesting. We need to wait a bit longer to see the polling tho

Rasmussen has Hillary retaking a narrow lead today, 43% to 42% for Trump. Last week it was Trump 43% Clinton 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

MoE, surely?

Oh yes, 3% either way but while still almost neck and neck it does look like Hillary will come out of the conventions with her nose just in front

I'm looking at Gallup, so far Hillary has gained 2 points among Democrats since the start of the convention, at the same point last week Trump had gained 3 among Republicans.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

However Hillary is still stuck at the low 70's level among democrats that is stable since at least April.
We will know by Monday the extent of Hillary's bounce.

She leads with Independents now though according to Rasmussen, though Trump has a larger lead with Republicans than Hillary does with Democrats as you suggest. Obama lost Independents in 2012 so that suggests Hillary is winning some former Romney voters while losing some Democrats to Jill Stein or even Trump.

AndyJS

O/T:

An interesting view of the Canary Wharf area and arriving at Heron Quays DLR station at 6 mins 40 secs on this video:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP1DADTYq98

Speedy

foxinsoxuk said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

I think that Labour is more than 60% certain, the chance of overhauling the Tories is slight and the concentration of votes is such that Electoral Calculus still gives Labour a ton of seats on 15%. Even Jezza could manage that. It will take more than one election and split to put a stake through the Labour heart. Possibly in 2025 the LDs could overtake, or UKIP if there was some great Brexit disaster or betrayal.

I like the confidence of foxinsoxuk.
Labour doesn't put a candidate in a Totnes council by-election, allowing the LD to win there, and immediately he gives the LD chances of coming second in a GE in the year 2025.

I give a better chance this song will be more accurate about the year 2525:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic

RobD

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I'm a bit disappointed that the tories have not moved the Queens Speech back to November 5th or thereabouts yet.

Or made the Supreme Court part of the House of Lords again.

Law Lords was a great name!

foxinsoxuk

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I'm a bit disappointed that the tories have not moved the Queens Speech back to November 5th or thereabouts yet.

Or made the Supreme Court part of the House of Lords again.

Yes. About time the Reform act was repealed too, and the Corn Laws brought back.

bigjohnowls

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:

Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%

Lab 70%
Con 29%
UKIP 1%
Others 0%
SNP 0%
LD 0%

MarkSenior

Strange how some people want to deride these by elections as parish elections when in many cases they are elections in the country's major towns and cities .
Of course some people do vote differently in local and national elections but most people vote the same .
What the results do show is that the Conservative high support in the national opinion polls is as soft as putty and hard to translate into real votes .

AndreaParma_82

The night so far in supporting nomination meetings

Bristol NW: Corbyn
Swansea West: Corbyn
Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
Colchester: Corbyn
South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1
Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
Southampton Test : Corbyn
Chesterfield: Corbyn

Streatham: Smith
Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73

surbiton

I could vote for Angela Merkel. Gutsy !

AndyJS

AndreaParma_82 said:

The night so far in supporting nomination meetings

Bristol NW: Corbyn
Swansea West: Corbyn
Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
Colchester: Corbyn
South Thanet: Corbyn
Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
Southampton Test : Corbyn
Chesterfield: Corbyn

Streatham: Smith
Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73

Interesting that a lot of London CLPs are going for Smith this time.

RobD

MarkSenior said:

Strange how some people want to deride these by elections as parish elections when in many cases they are elections in the country's major towns and cities .
Of course some people do vote differently in local and national elections but most people vote the same .
What the results do show is that the Conservative high support in the national opinion polls is as soft as putty and hard to translate into real votes .

Only because Corbyn supporters made a big deal of Parish Council elections

kle4

RobD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I'm a bit disappointed that the tories have not moved the Queens Speech back to November 5th or thereabouts yet.

Or made the Supreme Court part of the House of Lords again.

Law Lords was a great name!

That was never their real name, so we can still call them that, they do still get called Lord or Lady.

EPG

MarkSenior said:

Strange how some people want to deride these by elections as parish elections when in many cases they are elections in the country's major towns and cities .
Of course some people do vote differently in local and national elections but most people vote the same .
What the results do show is that the Conservative high support in the national opinion polls is as soft as putty and hard to translate into real votes .

Alternatively: It now takes May/Corbyn to make people vote Conservative, not any particular support for the government party after a rather bumbling six years. Good enough to win, once more, but as the LDs are learning, the stuff of long rebuildings when the swing goes the other way.

bigjohnowls

7 CLPs for Jezza tonight so far including Chesterfield

runnymede

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

I think that Labour is more than 60% certain, the chance of overhauling the Tories is slight and the concentration of votes is such that Electoral Calculus still gives Labour a ton of seats on 15%. Even Jezza could manage that. It will take more than one election and split to put a stake through the Labour heart. Possibly in 2025 the LDs could overtake, or UKIP if there was some great Brexit disaster or betrayal.

I like the confidence of foxinsoxuk.
Labour doesn't put a candidate in a Totnes council by-election, allowing the LD to win there, and immediately he gives the LD chances of coming second in a GE in the year 2025.

I give a better chance this song will be more accurate about the year 2525:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic

It's hilarious. Totnes is one of the most singular places you could imagine and absurdly unsuitable to draw any broader conclusions from.

bigjohnowls

South Thanet, Cheltenham, Romford, Southampton Test and Crewe and Nantwich all Jezza

tlg86

bigjohnowls said:

7 CLPs for Jezza tonight so far including Chesterfield

Did you see the unfortunate hacking of Toby Perkins's Twitter account today?

MarkSenior

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

I think that Labour is more than 60% certain, the chance of overhauling the Tories is slight and the concentration of votes is such that Electoral Calculus still gives Labour a ton of seats on 15%. Even Jezza could manage that. It will take more than one election and split to put a stake through the Labour heart. Possibly in 2025 the LDs could overtake, or UKIP if there was some great Brexit disaster or betrayal.

I like the confidence of foxinsoxuk.
Labour doesn't put a candidate in a Totnes council by-election, allowing the LD to win there, and immediately he gives the LD chances of coming second in a GE in the year 2025.

I give a better chance this song will be more accurate about the year 2525:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic

Labour did put up a candidate in Totnes . The Independent was the Labour candidate but for complex reasons was not described as such on the ballot paper

AndreaParma_82

Bethnal Green and Bow : Smith

East Devon: Corbyn
Erith and Thamesmead. Corbyn

foxinsoxuk

bigjohnowls said:

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:

Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%

Lab 70%
Con 29%
UKIP 1%
Others 0%
SNP 0%
LD 0%

I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.

EPG

AndreaParma_82 said:

The night so far in supporting nomination meetings

Bristol NW: Corbyn
Swansea West: Corbyn
Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
Colchester: Corbyn
South Thanet: Corbyn
Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
Southampton Test : Corbyn
Chesterfield: Corbyn

Streatham: Smith
Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73

Two of those three London CLPs for Smith were among the handful of Kendall backers last time...

Speedy

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

Interesting. We need to wait a bit longer to see the polling tho

Rasmussen has Hillary retaking a narrow lead today, 43% to 42% for Trump. Last week it was Trump 43% Clinton 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

MoE, surely?

Oh yes, 3% either way but while still almost neck and neck it does look like Hillary will come out of the conventions with her nose just in front

I'm looking at Gallup, so far Hillary has gained 2 points among Democrats since the start of the convention, at the same point last week Trump had gained 3 among Republicans.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

However Hillary is still stuck at the low 70's level among democrats that is stable since at least April.
We will know by Monday the extent of Hillary's bounce.

She leads with Independents now though according to Rasmussen, though Trump has a larger lead with Republicans than Hillary does with Democrats as you suggest. Obama lost Independents in 2012 so that suggests Hillary is winning some former Romney voters while losing some Democrats to Jill Stein or even Trump.

I never use Rasmussen (or Fox, or Marist, or Reuters).
I avoid polls that are either partisan or have proven serious methodology problems.

I advise you to do the same.

In 2012 I put down 7 (that's right seven) tracking polls, Rasmussen included (others where PPP, Gallup, IPSOS, IBT, RAND, ABC ) , but I never included them in my rolling average , which gave me a final result of Obama 50-Romney 47.5 .

RobD

kle4 said:

RobD said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I'm a bit disappointed that the tories have not moved the Queens Speech back to November 5th or thereabouts yet.

Or made the Supreme Court part of the House of Lords again.

Law Lords was a great name!

That was never their real name, so we can still call them that, they do still get called Lord or Lady.

We had Law Lords, we still have Sea Lords, all we need now is Time Lords!

foxinsoxuk

runnymede said:

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

I think that Labour is more than 60% certain, the chance of overhauling the Tories is slight and the concentration of votes is such that Electoral Calculus still gives Labour a ton of seats on 15%. Even Jezza could manage that. It will take more than one election and split to put a stake through the Labour heart. Possibly in 2025 the LDs could overtake, or UKIP if there was some great Brexit disaster or betrayal.

I like the confidence of foxinsoxuk.
Labour doesn't put a candidate in a Totnes council by-election, allowing the LD to win there, and immediately he gives the LD chances of coming second in a GE in the year 2025.

I give a better chance this song will be more accurate about the year 2525:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic

It's hilarious. Totnes is one of the most singular places you could imagine and absurdly unsuitable to draw any broader conclusions from.

One of a surprising number of large swings to the LDs in these elections across the country. We shall see later tonight whether the orange diamonds prosper elsewhere.

Whilst an LD, I was far more bearish on the party here over recent years.

Speedy

MarkSenior said:

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

I think that Labour is more than 60% certain, the chance of overhauling the Tories is slight and the concentration of votes is such that Electoral Calculus still gives Labour a ton of seats on 15%. Even Jezza could manage that. It will take more than one election and split to put a stake through the Labour heart. Possibly in 2025 the LDs could overtake, or UKIP if there was some great Brexit disaster or betrayal.

I like the confidence of foxinsoxuk.
Labour doesn't put a candidate in a Totnes council by-election, allowing the LD to win there, and immediately he gives the LD chances of coming second in a GE in the year 2025.

I give a better chance this song will be more accurate about the year 2525:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic

Labour did put up a candidate in Totnes . The Independent was the Labour candidate but for complex reasons was not described as such on the ballot paper

Therefore the voters had no idea there was a candidate, which proves my point.

MyBurningEars

AndyJS said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

The night so far in supporting nomination meetings

Bristol NW: Corbyn
Swansea West: Corbyn
Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
Colchester: Corbyn
South Thanet: Corbyn
Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
Southampton Test : Corbyn
Chesterfield: Corbyn

Streatham: Smith
Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73

Interesting that a lot of London CLPs are going for Smith this time.

Particularly bearing in mind how many of Labour's members are in London, that is.

By the way, The Daily Mash is often very good at capturing the mood of (much of) the nation. Their take on the Owen Smith is now in: "Everyone worried Owen Smith will try to sell them a vacuum cleaner."

BRITONS are worried that Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith might try to sell them life insurance or solar panels, they have revealed.

Many have noted Smith’s resemblance to the sort of salesperson who talks you into buying unnecessary insurance cover or a top-of-the range vacuum cleaner when a £35 one would do.

Teacher Donna Sheridan said: “I’ve got this nagging fear there’ll be a knock on the door and it’ll be Owen asking if he can come in to discuss solar panels.

“Or maybe I’ll go to Currys for a telly and he’ll be there and persuade me it’s ‘worth spending a bit extra’ and I’ll end up with a 75” HD smart TV when I only wanted it to occasionally watch the snooker.

HYUFD

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

If the RNC had got 15% higher TV ratings than the DNC would we have heard the end of it from the Trump rampers on here as proof that Crooked Hilary was finished.

Interesting. We need to wait a bit longer to see the polling tho

Rasmussen has Hillary retaking a narrow lead today, 43% to 42% for Trump. Last week it was Trump 43% Clinton 42%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch

MoE, surely?

Oh yes, 3% either way but while still almost neck and neck it does look like Hillary will come out of the conventions with her nose just in front

I'm looking at Gallup, so far Hillary has gained 2 points among Democrats since the start of the convention, at the same point last week Trump had gained 3 among Republicans.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

However Hillary is still stuck at the low 70's level among democrats that is stable since at least April.
We will know by Monday the extent of Hillary's bounce.

She leads with Independents now though according to Rasmussen, though Trump has a larger lead with Republicans than Hillary does with Democrats as you suggest. Obama lost Independents in 2012 so that suggests Hillary is winning some former Romney voters while losing some Democrats to Jill Stein or even Trump.

I never use Rasmussen (or Fox, or Marist, or Reuters).
I avoid polls that are either partisan or have proven serious methodology problems.

I advise you to do the same.

In 2012 I put down 7 (that's right seven) tracking polls, Rasmussen included (others where PPP, Gallup, IPSOS, IBT, RAND, ABC ) , but I never included them in my rolling average , which gave me a final result of Obama 50-Romney 47.5 .

Maybe but Rasmussen's poll today showing a very narrow Hillary lead after 3 nights of the Democratic convention after 3 nights of the GOP convention showed a very narrow Trump lead looks a likely signpost as to what the weekend polls will show

timmo

MarkSenior said:

Strange how some people want to deride these by elections as parish elections when in many cases they are elections in the country's major towns and cities .
Of course some people do vote differently in local and national elections but most people vote the same .
What the results do show is that the Conservative high support in the national opinion polls is as soft as putty and hard to translate into real votes .

Real bunfight going on in LD sutton tonight.
By election caused by a lib dem cllr resigning and subsequently being arrested in fraud charges.
Still expect the LDs to win but they wont get the surge in Carshalton as in the rest of the country.
Sleaze kills.

Theuniondivvie

HYUFD said:

SeanT has posted a vine of himself in a hammock in Zanzibar thinking about ideas for a new book if anyone was wondering about his whereabouts
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/758648810243489794

Shockingly proletarian socks, and those gutties aren't by Trickers.

justin124

AndreaParma_82 said:

The night so far in supporting nomination meetings

Bristol NW: Corbyn
Swansea West: Corbyn
Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
Colchester: Corbyn
South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1
Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
Southampton Test : Corbyn
Chesterfield: Corbyn

Streatham: Smith
Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73

These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.

timmo

This is one teason the LDs may not do as well as they have been recently in the Carshalton byelection.
There have been over 200 lds in the ward today knocking up versus the Tories 40-50.
Shows they are worried.
https://insidecroydon.com/2016/07/24/dont-mention-the-arrest-libdems-mislead-by-omission/#more-35065

HYUFD

Theuniondivvie said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT has posted a vine of himself in a hammock in Zanzibar thinking about ideas for a new book if anyone was wondering about his whereabouts
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/758648810243489794

Shockingly proletarian socks, and those gutties aren't by Trickers.

Yes, looks like a trip to Oxford Street will be due on his return

Speedy

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:

Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%

Lab 70%
Con 29%
UKIP 1%
Others 0%
SNP 0%
LD 0%

I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.

232-+10 seats.

Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones.
The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.

The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.

The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.

Scott_P

Theuniondivvie said:

those gutties aren't by Trickers.

For our Southern readers...

https://twitter.com/ronniejm67/status/757886168658767873

Mortimer

Thanks Harry!

HurstLlama

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

john_zims said:

@grabcocque

'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'

Mark Senior.

We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.

Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.

The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences

Oddly enough in rural areas it is the Parish council that has charge of producing the development plan for their area. You know, where houses and stuff can be built. So actually quite an important role. In my area a proposal to build houses on some land has just been seen off because it is not in the village plan.

Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.

justin124

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:

Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%

Lab 70%
Con 29%
UKIP 1%
Others 0%
SNP 0%
LD 0%

I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.

232-+10 seats.

Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones.
The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.

The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.

The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.

I suspect we have reached peak SNP and can see them losing a handful of seats to each of the Westminster parties - as happened in the Holyrood elections when compared to the 2015 General Election.

MarkSenior

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:

Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%

Lab 70%
Con 29%
UKIP 1%
Others 0%
SNP 0%
LD 0%

I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.

232-+10 seats.

Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones.
The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.

The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.

The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ? I expect them to gain 3 in Scotland at the next GE .

tlg86

MarkSenior said:

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ?

That's possibly the funniest thing I have ever seen on here!

Speedy

justin124 said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

The night so far in supporting nomination meetings

Bristol NW: Corbyn
Swansea West: Corbyn
Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
Colchester: Corbyn
South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1
Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
Southampton Test : Corbyn
Chesterfield: Corbyn

Streatham: Smith
Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73

These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.

I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.

But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).

Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.

HYUFD

HurstLlama said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

john_zims said:

@grabcocque

'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'

Mark Senior.

We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.

Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.

The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences

Oddly enough in rural areas it is the Parish council that has charge of producing the development plan for their area. You know, where houses and stuff can be built. So actually quite an important role. In my area a proposal to build houses on some land has just been seen off because it is not in the village plan.

Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.

That may be an important role yes although most planning decisions are taken at district council level. Parish council elections are also entirely independent as you state

timmo

tlg86 said:

MarkSenior said:

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ?

That's possibly the funniest thing I have ever seen on here!

Strangely enough it is thebtribal LDs total and utter belief in their own invincibility that always leads to their downfall..

MarkSenior

tlg86 said:

MarkSenior said:

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ?

That's possibly the funniest thing I have ever seen on here!

They will certainly gain Edinburgh West from the ex SNP Mrs Rachmann and NE Fife as they did in May . Jo Swinson also has a good chance of regaining her seat .

Speedy

MarkSenior said:

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:

Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%

Lab 70%
Con 29%
UKIP 1%
Others 0%
SNP 0%
LD 0%

I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.

232-+10 seats.

Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones.
The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.

The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.

The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ? I expect them to gain 3 in Scotland at the next GE .

Alistair Carmichael, remember ?

MarkSenior

Speedy said:

MarkSenior said:

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:

Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%

Lab 70%
Con 29%
UKIP 1%
Others 0%
SNP 0%
LD 0%

I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.

232-+10 seats.

Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones.
The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.

The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.

The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ? I expect them to gain 3 in Scotland at the next GE .

Alistair Carmichael, remember ?

More popular than you think locally as the May results showed

kle4

MarkSenior said:

tlg86 said:

MarkSenior said:

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ?

That's possibly the funniest thing I have ever seen on here!

Jo Swinson akso has a good chance of regaining her seat .

Smallest drop of any LD in the country IIRC, must have done something right, if not enough to save her.

kle4

Speedy said:

MarkSenior said:

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these threads on; they're part of the rhythm of my week and a nice little celebration that my working week is over. Agreed, you can't read too much into any one result, but the trends are interesting, and it's nice to see if there are any bits of geography you know.

2) This is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows:
- Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question
- Conservatives 13%
- Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch)
- SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote)
- LD 4%

Any other thoughts?

A0%

La%

I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.

232-+10 seats.

Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones.
The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.

The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.

The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ? I expect them to gain 3 in Scotland at the next GE .

Alistair Carmichael, remember ?

They won the areas in the Scottish Parliament elections - has to be a chance that either Carmichael clings on or he doesn't even stand and the usual way of things asserts itself there?

tlg86

MarkSenior said:

tlg86 said:

MarkSenior said:

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ?

That's possibly the funniest thing I have ever seen on here!

They will certainly gain Edinburgh West from the ex SNP Mrs Rachmann and NE Fife as they did in May . Jo Swinson also has a good chance of regaining her seat .

True, but with a bit of luck the Scottish seats will go the same way as our MEPs.

Mortimer

timmo said:

tlg86 said:

MarkSenior said:

Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ?

That's possibly the funniest thing I have ever seen on here!

Strangely enough it is thebtribal LDs total and utter belief in their own invincibility that always leads to their downfall..

The strange disappearance of Liberal England?

foxinsoxuk

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

bigjohnowls said:

Cookie said:

Cookie said:

DavidL said:

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

First?

The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade

No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.

1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these

Any other thoughts?

Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:

Lab 50%
Con 10%
UKIP 10%
Others 15%
SNP 5%
LD 10%

Lab 70%
Con 29%
UKIP 1%
Others 0%
SNP 0%
LD 0%

I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.

232-+10 seats.

Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones.
The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.

The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.

The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.

On Electoral Calculus: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=44&LAB=22&LIB=11&UKIP=13&Green=4.5&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2015

I get a Con majority of 162 and Lab on 156 seats on:

Con 44%, Lab 22%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%, Green 4.5 %, Nats 5.5%.

Not implausible at all under Jezza.

Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.

justin124

Speedy said:

justin124 said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

The night so far in supporting nomination meetings

Bristol NW: Corbyn
Swansea West: Corbyn
Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
Colchester: Corbyn
South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1
Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
Southampton Test : Corbyn
Chesterfield: Corbyn

Streatham: Smith
Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73

These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.

I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.

But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).

Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.

Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.

EPG

justin124 said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

The night so far in supporting nomination meetings

Bristol NW: Corbyn
Swansea West: Corbyn
Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
Colchester: Corbyn
South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1
Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
Southampton Test : Corbyn
Chesterfield: Corbyn

Streatham: Smith
Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73

These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.

Well. Early days yet, but the Cooper-/Kendall-endorsing CLPs are 5-2 Smith. The Corbyn/Burnham CLPs are 19-3 Corbyn. The non-declarers in 2015 are 9-1 Corbyn. Overthinking it, one might say that the Corbyn forces in the formally-organised party structures are motivated to send a message of their dominance quickly.