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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s local elections report: What’s happened so

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,446
    Are all the big name singers performing at the DNC getting paid? The convention must be costing them a fortune to put on if that's the case.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Lib dems will hold Carshalton
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    TOPPING said:

    PClipp said:

    Lib Dems hold Newport St Julians with a vastly increased majority.

    Lib Dem 948
    Labour 432
    UKIP 156
    Tory 135
    Plaid Cymru 71
    Green 25

    Apparently the other two seats in the ward are held by Labour.

    As has been noted, LDs are or used to be very effective locally. Nasty, too, but effective. Quite what else they are good for goodness only knows.
    I suspect that you have never even met a Lib Dem, Mr Topping. :)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    Which ones.

    Those that will not vote Labour anyway?

    You for example

    The ones who voted Labour under Blair, and Brown, and Miliband, who will not vote for Corbyn
    I am yet to meet a 2015 voter who has said to me: "I voted Conservative/UKIP at the election because Labour under Miliband was not left wing enough".
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    John_M said:

    Speedy said:

    New delay for Hinkley Point http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903904

    It would appear that Theresa wants to dot the i's and cross the T's.

    Mind you it is a big expensive decision so worthwhile the PM spending time understanding it and the resulting issues.

    It's massively expensive, it will take a very long time to be built, the government will foot the bill, and it's dangerous.

    Surely there are cheaper, faster, less dangerous ways to produce energy and without the government paying the bill.
    I noted my own MP comparing Hinkley unit prices with renewable energy. Makes you despair really. I have a lot of respect for Robert, so when he advocated CCGTs I checked it out. There's no contest, we would do far better with CCGT with lower capital and running costs.

    Complication is that the French want us to build Hinkley. Hollande offered May time to review, but it's a political, not a business decision. Pure business logic would say cancel it tomorrow.
    Why should the British consumer and tax payer pay massive amounts to support the french government, especially now that we are out of the EU ?

    They should try to find another sucker for their massively overpriced, delayed and dangerous french nuclear reactors.
    There are loads of third world countries that are already used to such projects.

    Goodnight.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    kle4 said:

    PClipp said:

    Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.

    If candidates at the parish level want to have party political labels, Mr Llama, they can have them. Most prefer not to do so. There is no law against it. Some parish/town councils are highly political.

    I didn't know that it was a candidate choice, Mr Clipp. Thanks for that. None of the candidates around here have ever chosen to put their party affiliation next to their names in the elections here in the last twenty-odd years. I wonder why
    Are you in a parish parish or a town parish? I cannot see the bother with either, tbh, but towns seem to like to play the game more.
    The parish of Hurstpierpoint in the county of Sussex. The parish has been here for more than thousand years (Wolstonbury Hill a bit to South was settled in the Iron age and long before the Romans showed up), though it was probably called something else before William the Bastard gave the land to that git Pierpoint.

    I don't know what sort of parish council taket makes ours but they have taken note of the legislation and moved to comply with it.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Are all the big name singers performing at the DNC getting paid? The convention must be costing them a fortune to put on if that's the case.

    The DNC has always had much better entertainment than the RNC. Whether they are paid or not I don't know. I assume the answer is the same for both conventions.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Haringay

    BRA BAZON Zena Labour Party 1054 Yes
    LEXANDER Karen Jane Liberal Democrats 765
    FRANCIS Jarelle Andrae Green Party 325
    ELMAZ Cansoy Cetin Conservative Party 99
    WATSON Neville UK Independence Party (UKIP) 36
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Golly,

    "The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory.

    This is the lacerating verdict of the IMF’s top watchdog on the Fund’s tangled political role in the eurozone debt crisis, the most damaging episode in the history of the Bretton Woods institutions."

    The IMF is a s bent as Legrande who would have thought it?

    More in the morning but if you want some overnight reading try here as a starter for ten:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,814

    HYUFD said:

    Smith has failed to carry his own party supporters with him as the only party supporters still left voting for Corbyn Labour are those who would also have voted for Michael Foot. The rest have defected to the Tories, UKIP or the LDs. Smith at least offers a chance to win a few of them back, Corbyn just offers a May landslide. Hollande may I remind you also won a general election in 2012, something Corbyn will almost certainly never get close to doing

    Any thoughts on today's court judgement?
    Not really, just the court upholding the NEC's vote
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,046
    kle4 said:

    OllyT said:

    St Julians (Newport) result:
    LDEM: 53.7% (+11.6)
    LAB: 24.4% (-20.3)
    UKIP: 8.8% (+8.8)
    CON: 7.6% (-5.5)
    PC: 4.0% (+4.0)
    GRN: 1.4% (+1.4)

    So while handfuls of activists up and down the country are nominating Corbyn for leader in the CLPs, in the real world Labour voters are leaving in droves.
    I'd have to go back and check, but I'm sure they've won some of these weekly by-elections just fine. I think Labour are in a bad way, but it's not universally so I think.
    It is not uniformly bad but even at the local level it's bad enough and I suspect Labour are doing better in locals than they will do in a GE with Corbyn as the potential PM. I will probably still vote Labour at local elections but there is not a chance in hell of me voting to make Corbyn become PM at a GE. Although I still have a vote in the leadership election I will probably now go to the Lib Dems if Corbyn wins.

    That Newport result is even worse than it first appears as it is a split ward with 2 Labour & 1 Lib Dem elected last time out, so Labour are 30% behind tonight in a seat they won last time out, even thought is the 1 Lib Dem councillor being replaced.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,814
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Speedy said:

    justin124 said:

    The night so far in supporting nomination meetings

    Bristol NW: Corbyn
    Swansea West: Corbyn
    Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn
    Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24
    Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10
    Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11
    Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20
    Colchester: Corbyn
    South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1
    Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn
    Southampton Test : Corbyn
    Chesterfield: Corbyn

    Streatham: Smith
    Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15
    West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27
    Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73

    These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
    I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.

    But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).

    Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
    Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
    I'm not sure Smith is one of those candidates where knowing more helps. The BBC 999 story made him a laughing stock amongst my lefty mates.
    Well it will be their party which will be a laughing stock if they stick with Corbyn!
    I have no skin in the game, but Smith seems to have completely changed his tune. Used to be Blairite. Now pos.
    Chancers tend to win most elections, Blair, Cameron, Clinton, Obama etc. Politicians who have had the same views since they were 7, like Corbyn, tend to do rather less well
    Chancers who tack towards and appeal to the centre do. Not those who try to out-radical their competitors or opponents.

    There is an analogy with Momentum and the Kippers. Sort of. Both are playing the long game to reap rewards in the longer term. Of the two and atm, for better or worse, the Kippers are more in tune with current thinking.

    Plus of course they just won the most important political victory in a generation.
    Smith has to win the leadership first and if he runs as a Miss 5% Kendall rehash on a Blairite platform Corbyn will slaughter him
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736

    Golly,

    "The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory.

    This is the lacerating verdict of the IMF’s top watchdog on the Fund’s tangled political role in the eurozone debt crisis, the most damaging episode in the history of the Bretton Woods institutions."

    The IMF is a s bent as Legrande who would have thought it?

    More in the morning but if you want some overnight reading try here as a starter for ten:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/

    Erm it's AEP.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @HurstLlama


    "The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory.

    This is the lacerating verdict of the IMF’s top watchdog on the Fund’s tangled political role in the eurozone debt crisis, the most damaging episode in the history of the Bretton Woods institutions."


    Thankfully the IMF was one of the 'experts' that voters chose to ignore on 23rd June.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    LDs hold Carshalton but swing to Tories..
    Just for Mark Senior obviously
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    The parish of Hurstpierpoint in the county of Sussex. The parish has been here for more than thousand years (Wolstonbury Hill a bit to South was settled in the Iron age and long before the Romans showed up), though it was probably called something else before William the Bastard gave the land to that git Pierpoint.

    I don't know what sort of parish council taket makes ours but they have taken note of the legislation and moved to comply with it.

    The legislation was not obligatory, Mr Llama, just permissive. So no need for the parish council to "comply" with it.

    Parish plans were seen as a mixed blessing. They could be seen as selling the pass for increased development. Once a plan has identified an area as appropriate for development, anybody can step in and take over the project (though they would have to have ownership of the land, of course). If the good people of Hurstpierpoint want lots of development in their village, then obviously they can vote to have it in their plan.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    timmo said:

    LDs hold Carshalton but swing to Tories..
    Just for Mark Senior obviously

    LD vote up 5.1% despite the cause of the by election .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,446
    EPG said:

    Golly,

    "The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory.

    This is the lacerating verdict of the IMF’s top watchdog on the Fund’s tangled political role in the eurozone debt crisis, the most damaging episode in the history of the Bretton Woods institutions."

    The IMF is a s bent as Legrande who would have thought it?

    More in the morning but if you want some overnight reading try here as a starter for ten:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/

    Erm it's AEP.
    "AEP’s top articles misled their own readers, made a series of calamitous misjudgements in Greece, became histrionic doomsayers for the euro project, ignored warning signs of continuing normality, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory."
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736
    AEP articles are essentially opinion pieces about evil Europeans and lovely Yanis
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475

    timmo said:

    LDs hold Carshalton but swing to Tories..
    Just for Mark Senior obviously

    LD vote up 5.1% despite the cause of the by election .
    "Good for the LDs" becoming the new "Good for Yes"? :D
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    timmo said:

    LDs hold Carshalton but swing to Tories..
    Just for Mark Senior obviously

    LD vote up 5.1% despite the cause of the by election .
    Tory vote up 11.6
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475
    EPG said:

    AEP articles are essentially opinion pieces about evil Europeans and lovely Yanis

    AEP is the Dan Hodges of economics? Discuss.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736

    EPG said:

    Golly,

    "The International Monetary Fund’s top staff misled their own board, made a series of calamitous misjudgments in Greece, became euphoric cheerleaders for the euro project, ignored warning signs of impending crisis, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory.

    This is the lacerating verdict of the IMF’s top watchdog on the Fund’s tangled political role in the eurozone debt crisis, the most damaging episode in the history of the Bretton Woods institutions."

    The IMF is a s bent as Legrande who would have thought it?

    More in the morning but if you want some overnight reading try here as a starter for ten:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/

    Erm it's AEP.
    "AEP’s top articles misled their own readers, made a series of calamitous misjudgements in Greece, became histrionic doomsayers for the euro project, ignored warning signs of continuing normality, and collectively failed to grasp an elemental concept of currency theory."
    Oh dear. Well, he is entitled to his views. He is not the only person to have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,736
    RobD said:

    EPG said:

    AEP articles are essentially opinion pieces about evil Europeans and lovely Yanis

    AEP is the Dan Hodges of economics? Discuss.
    I would say the anti-Hodges; Hodges was telling his team the things they didn't want to hear, annoying them, then eventually got it right by betting on the Twitter hero left-wingers to flop
  • timmo said:

    LDs hold Carshalton but swing to Tories..
    Just for Mark Senior obviously

    LD vote up 5.1% despite the cause of the by election .
    Here comes the surge!!!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    timmo said:

    LDs hold Carshalton but swing to Tories..
    Just for Mark Senior obviously

    LD vote up 5.1% despite the cause of the by election .
    Here comes the surge!!!
    As Bill Clinton said to Monica Lewinsky......
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,716

    St Julians (Newport) result:
    LDEM: 53.7% (+11.6)
    LAB: 24.4% (-20.3)
    UKIP: 8.8% (+8.8)
    CON: 7.6% (-5.5)
    PC: 4.0% (+4.0)
    GRN: 1.4% (+1.4)

    According to the +/- figs the LDs would have had 42·1% and Lab 44·7%. last time out. Call me picky but surely that can't be an LD hold?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited July 2016
    Lib Dems Gain Newlyn and Goonharven from Cons
    LDem 247
    Con 234
    Ind Yeo 163
    Meb K 161
    Lab 77
    Ind Tuckers 75
    Ind Thomas 54
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863

    Lib Dems Gain Newlyn and Goonharven from Cons
    LDem 247
    Con 234
    Ind Yeo 163
    Meb K 161
    Lab 77
    Ind Tuckers 75
    Ind Thomas 54

    Too many Indys causing havoc there!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,475
    kle4 said:

    Lib Dems Gain Newlyn and Goonharven from Cons
    LDem 247
    Con 234
    Ind Yeo 163
    Meb K 161
    Lab 77
    Ind Tuckers 75
    Ind Thomas 54

    Too many Indys causing havoc there!
    Typical neutrals!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    St Julians (Newport) result:
    LDEM: 53.7% (+11.6)
    LAB: 24.4% (-20.3)
    UKIP: 8.8% (+8.8)
    CON: 7.6% (-5.5)
    PC: 4.0% (+4.0)
    GRN: 1.4% (+1.4)

    According to the +/- figs the LDs would have had 42·1% and Lab 44·7%. last time out. Call me picky but surely that can't be an LD hold?
    Labour had 2 seats last time Lib Dems 1
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    St Julians (Newport) result:
    LDEM: 53.7% (+11.6)
    LAB: 24.4% (-20.3)
    UKIP: 8.8% (+8.8)
    CON: 7.6% (-5.5)
    PC: 4.0% (+4.0)
    GRN: 1.4% (+1.4)

    According to the +/- figs the LDs would have had 42·1% and Lab 44·7%. last time out. Call me picky but surely that can't be an LD hold?
    It's a multi-member ward so the swing calculations for a by-election get weird (or someone may have added it up wrong).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,446
    Andrew Cuomo: "They say they want to make American greater than ever before, but we say, 'You ain't seen nothing yet. Imagine what we're going to do to America'."

    Not sure it comes across the way he intended.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,835
    PClipp said:

    TOPPING said:

    PClipp said:

    Lib Dems hold Newport St Julians with a vastly increased majority.

    Lib Dem 948
    Labour 432
    UKIP 156
    Tory 135
    Plaid Cymru 71
    Green 25

    Apparently the other two seats in the ward are held by Labour.

    As has been noted, LDs are or used to be very effective locally. Nasty, too, but effective. Quite what else they are good for goodness only knows.
    I suspect that you have never even met a Lib Dem, Mr Topping. :)
    My apologies they are not nasty individually but their local campaigns often are. Or were.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Harringay on Haringey. Interesting combination.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,306
    AndyJS said:

    Harringay on Haringey. Interesting combination.

    The train station is also called Harringay

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Harringay_station_signage_2012.JPG
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016

    AndyJS said:

    Harringay on Haringey. Interesting combination.

    The train station is also called Harringay

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Harringay_station_signage_2012.JPG
    Reminds me slightly of Dumbarton in the county of Dunbartonshire. Why the "m" changes to an "n" is a mystery. :)

    Also the river Lea can be spelt/spelled Lee. Or should it be River Lea/Lee with a capital R?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,446
    By first delaying a decision from Vice President Joe Biden about whether Biden would run, the Obama White House forced Hillary into full-scale obeisance to the Obama era. That’s been disastrous for Hillary. Her convention week has completely ignored the serious problems that keep most Americans up at night.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/438376/barack-obamas-revenge-hillary-must-defend-him
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,306
    edited July 2016
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Harringay on Haringey. Interesting combination.

    The train station is also called Harringay

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Harringay_station_signage_2012.JPG
    Reminds me slightly of Dumbarton in the county of Dunbartonshire. Why the "m" changes to an "n" is a mystery. :)

    Also the river Lea can be spelt/spelled Lee. Or should it be River Lea/Lee with a capital R?

    Seems the closer you're to London, the more Lea predominates over Lee.

    Lea Bridge station has an A
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Lea_Bridge_railway_station?uselang=en-gb#/media/File:Lea_Bridge_stn_16_May_2016_46.JPG

    Lee Valley Park has an E
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Cheshunt_railway_station?uselang=en-gb#/media/File:Cheshunt_station_signage.JPG
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,835
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Harringay on Haringey. Interesting combination.

    The train station is also called Harringay

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Harringay_station_signage_2012.JPG
    Reminds me slightly of Dumbarton in the county of Dunbartonshire. Why the "m" changes to an "n" is a mystery. :)

    Also the river Lea can be spelt/spelled Lee. Or should it be River Lea/Lee with a capital R?
    Leigh on sea?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    john_zims said:

    @grabcocque

    'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'

    Mark Senior.

    We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.

    Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
    The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
    Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
    Reminds me of the famous quote about the Corporation of London - "it's strictly non-political - they all vote Conservative"
    I think that was a Michael Flanders line.
    His lines were better than Donald Swann's...
    I could quote F&S all night...
    I'm a gnu ...
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    TOPPING said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Harringay on Haringey. Interesting combination.

    The train station is also called Harringay

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Harringay_station_signage_2012.JPG
    Reminds me slightly of Dumbarton in the county of Dunbartonshire. Why the "m" changes to an "n" is a mystery. :)

    Also the river Lea can be spelt/spelled Lee. Or should it be River Lea/Lee with a capital R?
    Leigh on sea?
    Averton Gifford

    Pronounced either Aughton Gifford OR Averton Jifford
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034


    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Harringay on Haringey. Interesting combination.

    The train station is also called Harringay

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Harringay_station_signage_2012.JPG
    Reminds me slightly of Dumbarton in the county of Dunbartonshire. Why the "m" changes to an "n" is a mystery. :)

    Also the river Lea can be spelt/spelled Lee. Or should it be River Lea/Lee with a capital R?

    Seems the closer you're to London, the more Lea predominates over Lee.

    Lea Bridge station has an A
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Lea_Bridge_railway_station?uselang=en-gb#/media/File:Lea_Bridge_stn_16_May_2016_46.JPG

    Lee Valley Park has an E
    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Cheshunt_railway_station?uselang=en-gb#/media/File:Cheshunt_station_signage.JPG
    Further afield, it's definitely Lee. As in Robert E.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    john_zims said:

    @grabcocque

    'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'

    Mark Senior.

    We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.

    Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
    The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
    Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
    Reminds me of the famous quote about the Corporation of London - "it's strictly non-political - they all vote Conservative"
    I think that was a Michael Flanders line.
    His lines were better than Donald Swann's...
    I could quote F&S all night...
    I'm a gnu ...
    "A regular army of hippopotami" was an inspired rhyme

    Although i did like the idea of the "deputy assistant to the assistant deputy chief"
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Old English lēa(h), of Germanic origin; related to Old High German loh ‘grove’, from an Indo-European root shared by Sanskrit lokás ‘open space’, Latin lucus ‘grove’, and perhaps also light

    lee (n.)
    Middle English le, leoh, from Old English hleo "shelter, cover, defense, protection," from Proto-Germanic *khlewaz (source also of Old Norse hle, Danish læ, Old Saxon hleo, Dutch lij "lee, shelter"). No known cognates outside Germanic. Original sense uncertain; it might have been "warm" (compare German lau "tepid," Old Norse hly "shelter, warmth"), which might link it to PIE *kele- (1) "warm" [Watkins].
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Charles said:

    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    john_zims said:

    @grabcocque

    'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'

    Mark Senior.

    We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.

    Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
    The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
    Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
    Reminds me of the famous quote about the Corporation of London - "it's strictly non-political - they all vote Conservative"
    I think that was a Michael Flanders line.
    His lines were better than Donald Swann's...
    I could quote F&S all night...
    I'm a gnu ...
    "A regular army of hippopotami" was an inspired rhyme

    Although i did like the idea of the "deputy assistant to the assistant deputy chief"
    and who could forget the 'Transport of Delight' -

    We like to drive in conveys, we're most gregarious,
    The big six-wheeler, scarlet painted, London transport,
    diesel engine, ninety-seven horsepower omnibus.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tim_B said:

    Charles said:

    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    john_zims said:

    @grabcocque

    'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'

    Mark Senior.

    We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.

    Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
    The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
    Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
    Reminds me of the famous quote about the Corporation of London - "it's strictly non-political - they all vote Conservative"
    I think that was a Michael Flanders line.
    His lines were better than Donald Swann's...
    I could quote F&S all night...
    I'm a gnu ...
    "A regular army of hippopotami" was an inspired rhyme

    Although i did like the idea of the "deputy assistant to the assistant deputy chief"
    and who could forget the 'Transport of Delight' -

    We like to drive in conveys, we're most gregarious,
    The big six-wheeler, scarlet painted, London transport,
    diesel engine, ninety-seven horsepower omnibus.
    On Saturdays and Sundays they do no work at all...
    So 'twas on the Monday morning the gasman came to call!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I had a little gramophone,
    I'd wind it round and round.
    And with a sharpish needle,
    It made a cheerful sound.

    And then they amplified it,
    It was much louder then.
    And used sharpened fibre needles,
    To make it soft again.

    Today for reproduction,
    I'm as eager as can be.
    Count me among the faithful fans,
    Of high fidelity.

    High fidelity,
    Hi-Fi's the thing for me.
    With an LP disk and an FM set,
    And a corner reflex cabinet.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    PClipp said:

    Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.

    If candidates at the parish level want to have party political labels, Mr Llama, they can have them. Most prefer not to do so. There is no law against it. Some parish/town councils are highly political.

    When my sister stood (unopposed) for a seat on her local parish council in her village in Shropshire, she left the Description box on the nomination paper blank because she "didn't know what it meant".

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    JohnLoony said:

    PClipp said:

    Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.

    If candidates at the parish level want to have party political labels, Mr Llama, they can have them. Most prefer not to do so. There is no law against it. Some parish/town councils are highly political.

    When my sister stood (unopposed) for a seat on her local parish council in her village in Shropshire, she left the Description box on the nomination paper blank because she "didn't know what it meant".

    Reminds me of the old joke about the Polish pilot on approach to Heathrow who when asked for his height and position replied "Five feet five, and sitting at the front."
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tim: who do you think's going to win the election in November?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Tim: who do you think's going to win the election in November?

    Too close to call right now. Presumably Hillary will get a bump from the convention, but in a couple of weeks when the polls settle down from convention influence we'll have a clearer idea.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,814
    Here comes Hillary!
  • Bernie looks like he's enjoying the plaudits from Hillary. Not
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,456
    Doubtless this is about to become FPT, but turning Parish Council people away from fundamentalist Nimbyism is important.

    Stopping nearly all building has created too many no-go areas. I would like to see eg a continued process of growth of perhaps 1% a year, rather than 30 year freeze ... Council Estate ... 20 year freeze ... Housing Estate etc.

    See Derbyshrie villages with those just tacked on.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tim_B said:

    I had a little gramophone,
    I'd wind it round and round.
    And with a sharpish needle,
    It made a cheerful sound.

    And then they amplified it,
    It was much louder then.
    And used sharpened fibre needles,
    To make it soft again.

    Today for reproduction,
    I'm as eager as can be.
    Count me among the faithful fans,
    Of high fidelity.

    High fidelity,
    Hi-Fi's the thing for me.
    With an LP disk and an FM set,
    And a corner reflex cabinet.

    You win.

    The prize is a disabled parking space in Chelsea and an empty orange crate
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Lol

    Marco Rubio
    With all the heckling, Hillary speech is like Questions to the Prime Minister in the UK.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    TimB I think it's really important that you read this article:

    http://deadspin.com/why-your-team-sucks-2016-dallas-cowboys-1784456648
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,863
    MattW said:

    Doubtless this is about to become FPT, but turning Parish Council people away from fundamentalist Nimbyism is important.

    Stopping nearly all building has created too many no-go areas. I would like to see eg a continued process of growth of perhaps 1% a year, rather than 30 year freeze ... Council Estate ... 20 year freeze ... Housing Estate etc.

    See Derbyshrie villages with those just tacked on.

    It's a nice dream.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    PB rather quiet this morning, obviously not sharing Aunty’s enthusiasm for the snollygoster.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Morning all.

    PB rather quiet this morning, obviously not sharing Aunty’s enthusiasm for the snollygoster.

    Just the tweets are painful enough :wink:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Bernie fans chanting slogans - and I see he's gone back to being an independent

    These are the instructions for counter-chanting: https://t.co/gXCyIprmEv
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Charles said:

    Tim_B said:

    I had a little gramophone,
    I'd wind it round and round.
    And with a sharpish needle,
    It made a cheerful sound.

    And then they amplified it,
    It was much louder then.
    And used sharpened fibre needles,
    To make it soft again.

    Today for reproduction,
    I'm as eager as can be.
    Count me among the faithful fans,
    Of high fidelity.

    High fidelity,
    Hi-Fi's the thing for me.
    With an LP disk and an FM set,
    And a corner reflex cabinet.

    You win.

    The prize is a disabled parking space in Chelsea and an empty orange crate
    He calls it "South Chelsea"...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,291

    AndyJS said:

    Harringay on Haringey. Interesting combination.

    The train station is also called Harringay

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Harringay_station_signage_2012.JPG
    Guess who's going on the Island Line this weekend?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,291
    In GE2020, the LDs should have a shot at Cambridge, Bath, Lewes and perhaps Dunbartonshire East and Edinburgh West.

    I think the Tories will dig in well to most of their gains from 2015GE elsewhere.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,065
    Tim_B said:

    I had a little gramophone,
    I'd wind it round and round.
    And with a sharpish needle,
    It made a cheerful sound.

    And then they amplified it,
    It was much louder then.
    And used sharpened fibre needles,
    To make it soft again.

    Today for reproduction,
    I'm as eager as can be.
    Count me among the faithful fans,
    Of high fidelity.

    High fidelity,
    Hi-Fi's the thing for me.
    With an LP disk and an FM set,
    And a corner reflex cabinet.

    Flanders and Swann?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Morning all. Waiting for a new thread :grin:
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,065
    timmo said:

    LDs hold Carshalton but swing to Tories..
    Just for Mark Senior obviously

    UKIP way down, maybe mostly to Conservatives benefit. LibDems up at expense of Labour.

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Carshalton C. (Sutton) result:
    LDEM: 43.4% (+5.1)
    CON: 36.9% (+11.6)
    GRN: 7.3% (-0.3)
    LAB: 6.1% (-3.1)
    UKIP: 5.2% (-10.5)
    CPA: 1.0% (-1.1)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    timmo said:

    LDs hold Carshalton but swing to Tories..
    Just for Mark Senior obviously

    UKIP way down, maybe mostly to Conservatives benefit. LibDems up at expense of Labour.

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Carshalton C. (Sutton) result:
    LDEM: 43.4% (+5.1)
    CON: 36.9% (+11.6)
    GRN: 7.3% (-0.3)
    LAB: 6.1% (-3.1)
    UKIP: 5.2% (-10.5)
    CPA: 1.0% (-1.1)
    It was a good night for the LDs.

    Encouraging turnout of activists too.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Scotland 'on the brink'.....

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/angus-robertson-launches-snp-deputy-leadership-bid-1-4188897

    Pity Mr Robertson's constituents don't share his enthusiasm for the EU - lowest REMAIN vote in Scotland - only just 'won' by 122 votes....49.9:50.1......but its the overall figure that counts. eh, Angus? Well, not if you're looking at the UK, of course.....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Its been a terrrrrrible night for the Conservatives...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    Scott_P said:

    Which ones.

    Those that will not vote Labour anyway?

    You for example

    The ones who voted Labour under Blair, and Brown, and Miliband, who will not vote for Corbyn
    Or Smith
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Reading the comments below that picture its amazing how the left have anyone willing to work with them currently.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,297

    tlg86 said:

    Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ?

    That's possibly the funniest thing I have ever seen on here!
    They will certainly gain Edinburgh West from the ex SNP Mrs Rachmann and NE Fife as they did in May . Jo Swinson also has a good chance of regaining her seat .
    Will the liar stay at the trough
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,297

    DavidL said:

    On the LD surge in Scotland at Holyrood 16- they put huge efforts in at a local level where seats had previously returned LD candidates e.g. NE Fife, so this returned them a handful of constituency seats. I'd expect similar at a GE and a few seats coming back over to SLab from the SNP. Would be pretty surprised if the SNP didn't hold on to well over 40 seats (assuming no major events/changes in circs between then and now).

    One of the most amusing parts of the Corbyn fiasco for me is watching all those pro-Corbyn social media having to row back on the bold claims about how he was going to 'win back Scotland'. Clueless.

    There has to be a real chance that Labour will be fourth in Scotland in terms of seats at the next General Election. Which would be really funny.
    It would be deserved. They seem to be in an unending spiral of despair in Scotland - even the Lib Dems have more to offer.
    That is going too far
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,297

    Scotland 'on the brink'.....

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/angus-robertson-launches-snp-deputy-leadership-bid-1-4188897

    Pity Mr Robertson's constituents don't share his enthusiasm for the EU - lowest REMAIN vote in Scotland - only just 'won' by 122 votes....49.9:50.1......but its the overall figure that counts. eh, Angus? Well, not if you're looking at the UK, of course.....

    Been sucking lemons again
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Can't wait for the new thread any longer. I'll cut and paste when I find it's started straight after I've posted :grin:

    A couple of stories from the Telegraph this morning.

    Looks like the IMF (Legrand) have really screwed up.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/

    You've just got to love the Scandinavians! Who would have thoughtof giving this as an anniversary present.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/norway-is-considering-moving-a-mountain-to-neighbouring-finland/
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    AndyJS said:

    Harringay on Haringey. Interesting combination.

    JC's sometime ward. According to the Borough archivist the "-ey" spelling is older. I never believed that: I think it was created along with the Borough in 1965 because neither Hornsey (then strongly Tory) nor Tottenham would give way to the other.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    malcolmg said:

    Will the liar stay at the trough

    I can't see Alex Salmond retiring anytime soon .... :smile:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,421
    Blue_rog said:

    Can't wait for the new thread any longer. I'll cut and paste when I find it's started straight after I've posted :grin:

    A couple of stories from the Telegraph this morning.

    Looks like the IMF (Legrand) have really screwed up.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/

    You've just got to love the Scandinavians! Who would have thoughtof giving this as an anniversary present.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/norway-is-considering-moving-a-mountain-to-neighbouring-finland/

    Love the mountain idea. Really imaginative.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,584
    Good morning, everyone.

    Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for this.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    DavidL said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Can't wait for the new thread any longer. I'll cut and paste when I find it's started straight after I've posted :grin:

    A couple of stories from the Telegraph this morning.

    Looks like the IMF (Legrand) have really screwed up.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/28/imf-admits-disastrous-love-affair-with-euro-apologises-for-the-i/

    You've just got to love the Scandinavians! Who would have thoughtof giving this as an anniversary present.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/norway-is-considering-moving-a-mountain-to-neighbouring-finland/

    Love the mountain idea. Really imaginative.
    Indeed it is.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,421
    edited July 2016

    timmo said:

    LDs hold Carshalton but swing to Tories..
    Just for Mark Senior obviously

    UKIP way down, maybe mostly to Conservatives benefit. LibDems up at expense of Labour.

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
    Carshalton C. (Sutton) result:
    LDEM: 43.4% (+5.1)
    CON: 36.9% (+11.6)
    GRN: 7.3% (-0.3)
    LAB: 6.1% (-3.1)
    UKIP: 5.2% (-10.5)
    CPA: 1.0% (-1.1)
    It was a good night for the LDs.

    Encouraging turnout of activists too.
    It was. While the self-immolation of Labour has a certain ghoulish attraction there just might be some hints that people are starting to look for an alternative.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,297
    JackW said:

    malcolmg said:

    Will the liar stay at the trough

    I can't see Alex Salmond retiring anytime soon .... :smile:
    Witty for this time of Day Jack
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,584
    F1: no halo next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/36919451

    Also, read on Twitter that 2017 will see standing starts in the wet.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DavidL said:

    Love the mountain idea. Really imaginative.

    Corbyn should visit Norway ....

    He'll need to move mountains to win a few parish council seats let alone a general election that looks like a seismic event of Krakatoa proportions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,421
    The government is finally getting cold feet about Hinkley Point and has launched a review: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36903904

    As we seem stuck in a world with no inflation the guaranteed price per unit of electricity looks prohibitively high to me but this is a big call involving major investment at a time when every small straw in the wind is being looked at through the prism of Brexit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,421
    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    Love the mountain idea. Really imaginative.

    Corbyn should visit Norway ....

    He'll need to move mountains to win a few parish council seats let alone a general election that looks like a seismic event of Krakatoa proportions.
    Climb ev'ry mountain
    Ford ev'ry stream
    Follow ev'ry rainbow
    Till you find your dream
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BTW .... PBers hoping for a swift new thread early this morning are likely to be disappointed. OGH likes to see the old memories of "LibDem GAIN" flash on the screen .... :smile:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The DNC has seems to have had its desired effect. An American liberal leaning forum I frequent was in paroxysms of despair on day 1 of the DNC was wrapped in a warm glow of happiness by the end of play yesterday.

    Lots of enthusiastic image macros were being shared.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited July 2016
    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    Love the mountain idea. Really imaginative.

    Corbyn should visit Norway ....

    He'll need to move mountains to win a few parish council seats let alone a general election that looks like a seismic event of Krakatoa proportions.
    It's just a question of when he announces the creation of his Party's paramilitary wing...

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DavidL said:



    Climb ev'ry mountain
    Ford ev'ry stream
    Follow ev'ry rainbow
    Till you find your dream

    We'll have nun of that thank you !!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,592
    Well I didn't think Clinton's speech contained much that was memorable. Apart from a considerable expenditure in balloons for the end.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,814
    A workmanlike, solid speech from Hillary Clinton last night in which she portrayed herself as someone who could bring America together and take it forward while portraying Trump as a hypocrite, dangerous and a divider. It was not a brilliant speech but probably enough to give her a narrow lead by next week
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,584
    F1: also sounds like the radio restrictions have been axed, with immediate effect.

    Surprising amount of news, actually.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,835
    When do we get the result from Droitwich?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    Love the mountain idea. Really imaginative.

    Corbyn should visit Norway ....

    He'll need to move mountains to win a few parish council seats let alone a general election that looks like a seismic event of Krakatoa proportions.
    It's just a question of when he announces the creation of his Party's paramilitary wing...

    He always deplores the abusive behaviour of his supporters, but is as ineffective at controlling them as he is in showing any real authority and leadership in other areas.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294

    JackW said:

    DavidL said:

    Love the mountain idea. Really imaginative.

    Corbyn should visit Norway ....

    He'll need to move mountains to win a few parish council seats let alone a general election that looks like a seismic event of Krakatoa proportions.
    It's just a question of when he announces the creation of his Party's paramilitary wing...

    He always deplores the abusive behaviour of his supporters, but is as ineffective at controlling them as he is in showing any real authority and leadership in other areas.
    The word you're looking for is hypocrisy.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,814
    edited July 2016
    IanB2 said:

    Well I didn't think Clinton's speech contained much that was memorable. Apart from a considerable expenditure in balloons for the end.

    Trump's was the better speech in my view, though Bill Clinton and Obama were better than both. Hillary will get a bounce but probably not quite as much as Trump did and while she had a small lead before the conventions the polls look to be now neck and neck, with Hillary fractionally ahead
This discussion has been closed.