The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question - Conservatives 13% - Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch) - SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote) - LD 4%
Any other thoughts?
A0%
La%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ? I expect them to gain 3 in Scotland at the next GE .
Alistair Carmichael, remember ?
They won the areas in the Scottish Parliament elections - has to be a chance that either Carmichael clings on or he doesn't even stand and the usual way of things asserts itself there?
If Carmichael doesn't stand, sure the LD might retain their single seat.
We should never refrain from the possibility that local unpopularity of MP's might outweigh party loyalty.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
s is a really interesting point - is there a market anywhere on who will be the second largest party afte the next election? My thoughts are roughly as follows: - Labour 60% (they have to do either remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question - Conservatives 13% - Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch) - SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote) - LD 4%
Any other thoughts?
A0%
La%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ? I expect them to gain 3 in Scotland at the next GE .
Alistair Carmichael, remember ?
They won the areas in the Scottish Parliament elections - has to be a chance that either Carmichael clings on or he doesn't even stand and the usual way of things asserts itself there?
The SNP tried to make the May contests into a referendum on Carmichael , that got them nowhere
'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'
Mark Senior.
We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.
Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
Oddly enough in rural areas it is the Parish council that has charge of producing the development plan for their area. You know, where houses and stuff can be built. So actually quite an important role. In my area a proposal to build houses on some land has just been seen off because it is not in the village plan.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
That may be an important role yes although most planning decisions are taken at district council level. Parish council elections are also entirely independent as you state
Quite so Mr. Hyfud but planning consent by the district council will be refused if the area is not one scheduled for development in the local plan, which is formed by the Parish Council.
So Parish Councils have a leetle more relevance to people's lives than, the village hall, local fete and the public loos, don't they?
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question - Conservatives 13% - Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch) - SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote) - LD 4%
Any other thoughts?
A0%
La%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ? I expect them to gain 3 in Scotland at the next GE .
Alistair Carmichael, remember ?
They won the areas in the Scottish Parliament elections - has to be a chance that either Carmichael clings on or he doesn't even stand and the usual way of things asserts itself there?
If Carmichael doesn't stand, sure the LD might retain their single seat.
We should never refrain from the possibility that local unpopularity of MP's might outweigh party loyalty.
Well it was pretty close in 2015, so I would not discount that possibility. But the LDs held the area in the Scottish Parliament, when some in the SNP at least laughed at the possibility, so I'd assume the LDs have a decent chance even under Carmichael. And weirdly the LDs still seem to be polling a point or so higher in Scotland than England.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these
Any other thoughts?
Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:
Lab 50% Con 10% UKIP 10% Others 15% SNP 5% LD 10%
Lab 70% Con 29% UKIP 1% Others 0% SNP 0% LD 0%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these
Any other thoughts?
Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:
Lab 50% Con 10% UKIP 10% Others 15% SNP 5% LD 10%
Lab 70% Con 29% UKIP 1% Others 0% SNP 0% LD 0%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
I get a Con majority of 162 and Lab on 156 seats on:
Con 44%, Lab 22%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%, Green 4.5 %, Nats 5.5%.
Not implausible at all under Jezza.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
Easy, it's a swing of 1 from the last election either way. Even if there is no swing at all there's bound to be some small number of seats that change hands.
My prediction is far more realistic and practical, than May even gaining more than in her political Honeymoon.
'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'
Mark Senior.
We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.
Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
Oddly enough in rural areas it is the Parish council that has charge of producing the development plan for their area. You know, where houses and stuff can be built. So actually quite an important role. In my area a proposal to build houses on some land has just been seen off because it is not in the village plan.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
That may be an important role yes although most planning decisions are taken at district council level. Parish council elections are also entirely independent as you state
Quite so Mr. Hyfud but planning consent by the district council will be refused if the area is not one scheduled for development in the local plan, which is formed by the Parish Council.
So Parish Councils have a leetle more relevance to people's lives than, the village hall, local fete and the public loos, don't they?
How many parish councils actually have local plans? Takes time and effort doesn't it?
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these
Any other thoughts?
Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:
Lab 50% Con 10% UKIP 10% Others 15% SNP 5% LD 10%
Lab 70% Con 29% UKIP 1% Others 0% SNP 0% LD 0%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
I get a Con majority of 162 and Lab on 156 seats on:
Con 44%, Lab 22%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%, Green 4.5 %, Nats 5.5%.
Not implausible at all under Jezza.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
Easy, it's a swing of 1 from the last election either way. Even if there is no swing at all there's bound to be some small number of seats that change hands.
My prediction is far more realistic and practical, than May even gaining more than in her political Honeymoon.
Delusional, but even if true it leaves Labour impotent on the opposition benches for another 5 years.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
remarkably well or remarkably badly to be anything other than second - mind you, remarkably badly is no longer out of the question - Conservatives 13% - Other 17% (most likely SDP2, natch) - SNP 6% (either massive Tory landslide or complete shattering of the not-Tory vote) - LD 4%
Any other thoughts?
A0%
La%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Why should the Lib Dems lose their Scottish seat ? I expect them to gain 3 in Scotland at the next GE .
Alistair Carmichael, remember ?
They won the areas in the Scottish Parliament elections - has to be a chance that either Carmichael clings on or he doesn't even stand and the usual way of things asserts itself there?
If Carmichael doesn't stand, sure the LD might retain their single seat.
We should never refrain from the possibility that local unpopularity of MP's might outweigh party loyalty.
You clearly know Sweet FA about the constituency If you think Carmichael is locally unpopular
BRITONS are worried that Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith might try to sell them life insurance or solar panels, they have revealed.
Many have noted Smith’s resemblance to the sort of salesperson who talks you into buying unnecessary insurance cover or a top-of-the range vacuum cleaner when a £35 one would do.
Teacher Donna Sheridan said: “I’ve got this nagging fear there’ll be a knock on the door and it’ll be Owen asking if he can come in to discuss solar panels.
“Or maybe I’ll go to Currys for a telly and he’ll be there and persuade me it’s ‘worth spending a bit extra’ and I’ll end up with a 75” HD smart TV when I only wanted it to occasionally watch the snooker.
On the LD surge in Scotland at Holyrood 16- they put huge efforts in at a local level where seats had previously returned LD candidates e.g. NE Fife, so this returned them a handful of constituency seats. I'd expect similar at a GE and a few seats coming back over to SLab from the SNP. Would be pretty surprised if the SNP didn't hold on to well over 40 seats (assuming no major events/changes in circs between then and now).
One of the most amusing parts of the Corbyn fiasco for me is watching all those pro-Corbyn social media having to row back on the bold claims about how he was going to 'win back Scotland'. Clueless.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
I'm not sure Smith is one of those candidates where knowing more helps. The BBC 999 story made him a laughing stock amongst my lefty mates.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these
Any other thoughts?
Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:
Lab 50% Con 10% UKIP 10% Others 15% SNP 5% LD 10%
Lab 70% Con 29% UKIP 1% Others 0% SNP 0% LD 0%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
Well. Early days yet, but the Cooper-/Kendall-endorsing CLPs are 5-2 Smith. The Corbyn/Burnham CLPs are 19-3 Corbyn. The non-declarers in 2015 are 9-1 Corbyn. Overthinking it, one might say that the Corbyn forces in the formally-organised party structures are motivated to send a message of their dominance quickly.
From the CLP nominations I am aware of Corbyn presently leads Smith 30 - 9.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
So far the more Smith talks the less support he gets.
It's fine to have the abstract idea of a challenger to Corbyn being successful on paper. But once you have a challenger the more people know him the more they are convinced Corbyn is a better choice.
Angela Eagle was so bad she never even made it out of the gate. Owen Smith sank his campaign early on when he opened his mouth.
Like last year, Corbyn is by default the least bad option.
On the LD surge in Scotland at Holyrood 16- they put huge efforts in at a local level where seats had previously returned LD candidates e.g. NE Fife, so this returned them a handful of constituency seats. I'd expect similar at a GE and a few seats coming back over to SLab from the SNP. Would be pretty surprised if the SNP didn't hold on to well over 40 seats (assuming no major events/changes in circs between then and now).
One of the most amusing parts of the Corbyn fiasco for me is watching all those pro-Corbyn social media having to row back on the bold claims about how he was going to 'win back Scotland'. Clueless.
There has to be a real chance that Labour will be fourth in Scotland in terms of seats at the next General Election. Which would be really funny.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
I'm not sure Smith is one of those candidates where knowing more helps. The BBC 999 story made him a laughing stock amongst my lefty mates.
Well it will be their party which will be a laughing stock if they stick with Corbyn!
'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'
Mark Senior.
We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.
Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
Oddly enough in rural areas it is the Parish council that has charge of producing the development plan for their area. You know, where houses and stuff can be built. So actually quite an important role. In my area a proposal to build houses on some land has just been seen off because it is not in the village plan.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
That may be an important role yes although most planning decisions are taken at district council level. Parish council elections are also entirely independent as you state
Quite so Mr. Hyfud but planning consent by the district council will be refused if the area is not one scheduled for development in the local plan, which is formed by the Parish Council.
So Parish Councils have a leetle more relevance to people's lives than, the village hall, local fete and the public loos, don't they?
Unless you have a specific development affecting your area of the village not really and even then the District Council has the final say. For most villagers the work the Parish Council does on the village hall, the fete and the public loos is actually more relevant
On the LD surge in Scotland at Holyrood 16- they put huge efforts in at a local level where seats had previously returned LD candidates e.g. NE Fife, so this returned them a handful of constituency seats. I'd expect similar at a GE and a few seats coming back over to SLab from the SNP. Would be pretty surprised if the SNP didn't hold on to well over 40 seats (assuming no major events/changes in circs between then and now).
One of the most amusing parts of the Corbyn fiasco for me is watching all those pro-Corbyn social media having to row back on the bold claims about how he was going to 'win back Scotland'. Clueless.
There has to be a real chance that Labour will be fourth in Scotland in terms of seats at the next General Election. Which would be really funny.
On the other hand Labour was not expected to win any constituency seats at this year's Holyrood elections . In the end they managed three - which was some advance on the 2015 election.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these
Any other thoughts?
Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:
Lab 50% Con 10% UKIP 10% Others 15% SNP 5% LD 10%
Lab 70% Con 29% UKIP 1% Others 0% SNP 0% LD 0%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
I get a Con majority of 162 and Lab on 156 seats on:
Con 44%, Lab 22%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%, Green 4.5 %, Nats 5.5%.
Not implausible at all under Jezza.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
I don't think Labour [ without a break-up ] can win less than 28%.
I think under Jezza they will. Fancy creating a wager out of it? Bet void if Jezza deposed.
Ooooh! Yes, Please!
Not serious money (because I am not allowed to that anymore) but I'll wager a bottle of something decent or, say, fifty quid to your favourite charity (RNLI for me) that at the next GE Labour will secure between 27.5% and 28.5% of the vote, bet void if there is a split in the party.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
So far the more Smith talks the less support he gets.
It's fine to have the abstract idea of a challenger to Corbyn being successful on paper. But once you have a challenger the more people know him the more they are convinced Corbyn is a better choice.
Angela Eagle was so bad she never even made it out of the gate. Owen Smith sank his campaign early on when he opened his mouth.
Like last year, Corbyn is by default the least bad option.
The same Corbyn who called Hamas friends and said he would never use these nuclear deterrent? And had the support of about 20 MPs? That Corbyn?
'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'
Mark Senior.
We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.
Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
Oddly enough in rural areas it is the Parish council that has charge of producing the development plan for their area. You know, where houses and stuff can be built. So actually quite an important role. In my area a proposal to build houses on some land has just been seen off because it is not in the village plan.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
That may be an important role yes although most planning decisions are taken at district council level. Parish council elections are also entirely independent as you state
Quite so Mr. Hyfud but planning consent by the district council will be refused if the area is not one scheduled for development in the local plan, which is formed by the Parish Council.
So Parish Councils have a leetle more relevance to people's lives than, the village hall, local fete and the public loos, don't they?
Unless you have a specific development affecting your area of the village not really and even then the District Council has the final say. For most villagers the work the Parish Council does on the village hall, the fete and the public loos is actually more relevant
Having a parish plan is a fairly effective way of controlling development. It is not Nimbyism if specific sites are designated for development both commercial and residential. It carries quite a lot of weight with the District Council.
On the LD surge in Scotland at Holyrood 16- they put huge efforts in at a local level where seats had previously returned LD candidates e.g. NE Fife, so this returned them a handful of constituency seats. I'd expect similar at a GE and a few seats coming back over to SLab from the SNP. Would be pretty surprised if the SNP didn't hold on to well over 40 seats (assuming no major events/changes in circs between then and now).
One of the most amusing parts of the Corbyn fiasco for me is watching all those pro-Corbyn social media having to row back on the bold claims about how he was going to 'win back Scotland'. Clueless.
There has to be a real chance that Labour will be fourth in Scotland in terms of seats at the next General Election. Which would be really funny.
It would be deserved. They seem to be in an unending spiral of despair in Scotland - even the Lib Dems have more to offer.
'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'
Mark Senior.
We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.
Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
Oddly enough in rural areas it is the Parish council that has charge of producing the development plan for their area. You know, where houses and stuff can be built. So actually quite an important role. In my area a proposal to build houses on some land has just been seen off because it is not in the village plan.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
That may be an important role yes although most planning decisions are taken at district council level. Parish council elections are also entirely independent as you state
Quite so Mr. Hyfud but planning consent by the district council will be refused if the area is not one scheduled for development in the local plan, which is formed by the Parish Council.
So Parish Councils have a leetle more relevance to people's lives than, the village hall, local fete and the public loos, don't they?
How many parish councils actually have local plans? Takes time and effort doesn't it?
I should hope all of them, and each and everyone upheld in a local referendum. It was all wrapped up in planning law under the coalition, don't ask me to give chapter and verse now, much too late and I have been thinking deeply about other matters.
On the LD surge in Scotland at Holyrood 16- they put huge efforts in at a local level where seats had previously returned LD candidates e.g. NE Fife, so this returned them a handful of constituency seats. I'd expect similar at a GE and a few seats coming back over to SLab from the SNP. Would be pretty surprised if the SNP didn't hold on to well over 40 seats (assuming no major events/changes in circs between then and now).
One of the most amusing parts of the Corbyn fiasco for me is watching all those pro-Corbyn social media having to row back on the bold claims about how he was going to 'win back Scotland'. Clueless.
There has to be a real chance that Labour will be fourth in Scotland in terms of seats at the next General Election. Which would be really funny.
On the other hand Labour was not expected to win any constituency seats at this year's Holyrood elections . In the end they managed three - which was some advance on the 2015 election.
True. The Westminster seats are harder though because they are bigger. There is a long way to go but at the moment I would be guessing 5 tory, 3 Lib Dems, 2 Labour and the rest SNP.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these
Any other thoughts?
Aagh - forgot UKIP! Right, try again:
Lab 50% Con 10% UKIP 10% Others 15% SNP 5% LD 10%
Lab 70% Con 29% UKIP 1% Others 0% SNP 0% LD 0%
I think Labour under Jezza will be sub 150 seats (on current 650 seat parliament). Nailed on in second but perhaps more interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be
I get a Con majority of 162 and Lab on 156 seats on:
Con 44%, Lab 22%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%, Green 4.5 %, Nats 5.5%.
Not implausible at all under Jezza.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
I don't think Labour [ without a break-up ] can win less than 28%.
I think under Jezza they will. Fancy creating a wager out of it? Bet void if Jezza deposed.
Ooooh! Yes, Please!
Not serious money (because I am not allowed to that anymore) but I'll wager a bottle of something decent or, say, fifty quid to your favourite charity (RNLI for me) that at the next GE Labour will secure between 27.5% and 28.5% of the vote, bet void if there is a split in the party.
What say you, Doc, are you on?
I was thinking more like an over/under bet on 28% GB vote share for a UK GE Labour share. Void if Jezza is no longer the leader, but I am on the downside!
A bottle of VSOP Congnac vs a bottle of Single Malt?
'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'
Mark Senior.
We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.
Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
Oddly enough in rural areas it is the Parish council that has charge of producing the development plan for their area. You know, where houses and stuff can be built. So actually quite an important role. In my area a proposal to build houses on some land has just been seen off because it is not in the village plan.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
That may be an important role yes although most planning decisions are taken at district council level. Parish council elections are also entirely independent as you state
Quite so Mr. Hyfud but planning consent by the district council will be refused if the area is not one scheduled for development in the local plan, which is formed by the Parish Council.
So Parish Councils have a leetle more relevance to people's lives than, the village hall, local fete and the public loos, don't they?
How many parish councils actually have local plans? Takes time and effort doesn't it?
I should hope all of them, and each and everyone upheld in a local referendum. It was all wrapped up in planning law under the coalition, don't ask me to give chapter and verse now, much too late and I have been thinking deeply about other matters.
Well I know for a fact plenty don't round my way (though some at least are in the process of preparing them). I've no idea if that experience is regular, but I imagine plenty of parishes lack such plans, and thus even that bit of influence is not in place.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
I'm not sure Smith is one of those candidates where knowing more helps. The BBC 999 story made him a laughing stock amongst my lefty mates.
Well it will be their party which will be a laughing stock if they stick with Corbyn!
I have no skin in the game, but Smith seems to have completely changed his tune. Used to be Blairite. Now positioning himself as more radical than Corbyn? My bullshit meter needle just wrapped around the end stop.
Whatever my thoughts about JC, he's never wavered in his views. Smith just seems like an inauthentic chancer.
Taken as a whole, three months' or so local election results do give some indication of how the parties are faring, so long as you remember two things :
1. Lib Dems do better at local than national level.
2. The Opposition outperforms its national level of support at local level. There is almost always swing back at the subsequent general election.
If Labour are level-pegging with the Tories locally, now, that implies a big Tory lead In 2020.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
I'm not sure Smith is one of those candidates where knowing more helps. The BBC 999 story made him a laughing stock amongst my lefty mates.
Well it will be their party which will be a laughing stock if they stick with Corbyn!
Whatever my thoughts about JC, he's never wavered in his views.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
I'm not sure Smith is one of those candidates where knowing more helps. The BBC 999 story made him a laughing stock amongst my lefty mates.
Well it will be their party which will be a laughing stock if they stick with Corbyn!
Whatever my thoughts about JC, he's never wavered in his views.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these
Any other thoughts?
ore interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
Easy, it's a swing of 1 from the last election either way. Even if there is no swing at all there's bound to be some small number of seats that change hands.
My prediction is far more realistic and practical, than May even gaining more than in her political Honeymoon.
Delusional, but even if true it leaves Labour impotent on the opposition benches for another 5 years.
Face it. Jezza is a disaster.
Compared with the alternatives of this year and last year, he is the least bad option.
Clearly the Labour party doesn't know for decades now what it wants. Labour voters don't want to vote for right wing or liberal policies, but Labour MP's think it's necessary to support right wing or liberal policies in order to become ministers.
It's the struggle of getting that extra 10% of voters to win elections without losing any of your own supporters. It's a fine balance, but most Labour MP's clearly don't know how to do it, they have come out as out of touch, power hungry, and empty suits.
Taken as a whole, three months' or so local election results do give some indication of how the parties are faring, so long as you remember two things :
1. Lib Dems do better at local than national level.
2. The Opposition outperforms its national level of support at local level. There is almost always swing back at the subsequent general election.
If Labour are level-pegging with the Tories locally, now, that implies a big Tory lead In 2020.
Rodcrosby said it implies a ten point Tory lead at next election.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for
Any other thoughts?
ore interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
Easy, it's a swing of 1 from the last election either way. Even if there is no swing at all there's bound to be some small number of seats that change hands.
My prediction is far more realistic and practical, than May even gaining more than in her political Honeymoon.
Delusional, but even if true it leaves Labour impotent on the opposition benches for another 5 years.
Face it. Jezza is a disaster.
Compared with the alternatives of this year and last year, he is the least bad option.
Clearly the Labour party doesn't know for decades now what it wants. Labour voters don't want to vote for right wing or liberal policies, but Labour MP's think it's necessary to support right wing or liberal policies in order to become ministers.
It's the struggle of getting that extra 10% of voters to win elections without losing any of your own supporters. It's a fine balance, but most Labour MP's clearly don't know how to do it, they have come out as out of touch, power hungry, and empty suits.
Labour have won only 3 General elections in the last 40 years, all under the Centrist New Labour flag. They have lost 6 in the same period under more left wing leaders. Don't say you were not warned!
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for
Any other thoughts?
ore interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
My prediction is far more realistic and practical, than May even gaining more than in her political Honeymoon.
Delusional, but even if true it leaves Labour impotent on the opposition benches for another 5 years.
Face it. Jezza is a disaster.
Compared with the alternatives of this year and last year, he is the least bad option.
Clearly the Labour party doesn't know for decades now what it wants. Labour voters don't want to vote for right wing or liberal policies, but Labour MP's think it's necessary to support right wing or liberal policies in order to become ministers.
It's the struggle of getting that extra 10% of voters to win elections without losing any of your own supporters. It's a fine balance, but most Labour MP's clearly don't know how to do it, they have come out as out of touch, power hungry, and empty suits.
Labour have won only 3 General elections in the last 40 years, all under the Centrist New Labour flag. They have lost 6 in the same period under more left wing leaders. Don't say you were not warned!
As I've said before, sensible parties have to get lucky every time. Corbynculties only have to get lucky once. If Momentum take over the Labour party, eventually they will be elected.
I was thinking more like an over/under bet on 28% GB vote share for a UK GE Labour share. Void if Jezza is no longer the leader, but I am on the downside!
A bottle of VSOP Congnac vs a bottle of Single Malt?
Ah, Doc, you cut me to the quick because I think Labour will achieve about 28% (assuming no split and Corbyn remains in place) but no more. So asking me to bet on them getting more than that is to pin me down to maybe 0.5%.
Tories third in Scotland behind none of them: Scottish voters // On who to trust to make decisions about Trident: SNP: 26% CON: 21% LAB: 5% LDEM: 3% UKIP: 1% None of them: 22% (YouGov)
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for when I first discovered the internet back in the mid 90s. So thanks to Harry and others for putting these
Any other thoughts?
ore interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The Tories will probably have a small net gain thanks to scotland, I can easily see them beating the SNP in a handful of seats there.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
Easy, it's a swing of 1 from the last election either way. Even if there is no .
Delusional, but even if true it leaves Labour impotent on the opposition benches for another 5 years.
Face it. Jezza is a disaster.
Compared with the alternatives of this year and last year, he is the least bad option.
Clearly the Labour party doesn't know for decades now what it wants. Labour voters don't want to vote for right wing or liberal policies, but Labour MP's think it's necessary to support right wing or liberal policies in order to become ministers.
It's the struggle of getting that extra 10% of voters to win elections without losing any of your own supporters. It's a fine balance, but most Labour MP's clearly don't know how to do it, they have come out as out of touch, power hungry, and empty suits.
Tories, LDs and UKIP voters all preferred Smith in a BMG poll today, Greens, SNP, Plaid...and Labour voters preferred Corbyn, says it all.
Tories third in Scotland behind none of them: Scottish voters // On who to trust to make decisions about Trident: SNP: 26% CON: 21% LAB: 5% LDEM: 3% UKIP: 1% None of them: 22% (YouGov)
'Does anyone actually take the slightest interest in these local by elections in the Parish Council of Arse End-by-the-Sea? (Jez excepted)'
Mark Senior.
We don't cover parish councils. Only Corbyn is interested in these when he's desperate for good news.
Generally I think it is another indicator and we will go on covering.
The key topics in Parish Council elections tend to be the village hall and the annual fete and the state of public conveniences
Oddly enough in rural areas it is the Parish council that has charge of producing the development plan for their area. You know, where houses and stuff can be built. So actually quite an important role. In my area a proposal to build houses on some land has just been seen off because it is not in the village plan.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
That may be an important role yes although most planning decisions are taken at district council level. Parish council elections are also entirely independent as you state
Quite so Mr. Hyfud but planning consent by the district council will be refused if the area is not one scheduled for development in the local plan, which is formed by the Parish Council.
So Parish Councils have a leetle more relevance to people's lives than, the village hall, local fete and the public loos, don't they?
Unless you have a specific development affecting your area of the village not really and even then the District Council has the final say. For most villagers the work the Parish Council does on the village hall, the fete and the public loos is actually more relevant
Having a parish plan is a fairly effective way of controlling development. It is not Nimbyism if specific sites are designated for development both commercial and residential. It carries quite a lot of weight with the District Council.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for
Any other thoughts?
ore interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
Easy, it's a swing of 1 from the last election either way. Even if there is no swing at all there's bound to be some small number of seats that change hands.
My prediction is far more realistic and practical, than May even gaining more than in her political Honeymoon.
Delusional, but even if true it leaves Labour impotent on the opposition benches for another 5 years.
Face it. Jezza is a disaster.
Compared with the alternatives of this year and last year, he is the least bad option.
Clearly the Labour party doesn't know for decades now what it wants. Labour voters don't want to vote for right wing or liberal policies, but Labour MP's think it's necessary to support right wing or liberal policies in order to become ministers.
It's the struggle of getting that extra 10% of voters to win elections without losing any of your own supporters. It's a fine balance, but most Labour MP's clearly don't know how to do it, they have come out as out of touch, power hungry, and empty suits.
Labour have won only 3 General elections in the last 40 years, all under the Centrist New Labour flag. They have lost 6 in the same period under more left wing leaders. Don't say you were not warned!
The country paid dearly for the New Labour years, and the Labour party is still struggling from the ruins of it's legacy.
No one wants a repeat of Blair and Brown apart from you, John Rentoul, and Dan Hodges it seems. Or do you really think that the mess of devolution, wars and financial crisis are the right way of doing things ?
People do not want to repeat the recent past that left them with bitter memories.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
I'm not sure Smith is one of those candidates where knowing more helps. The BBC 999 story made him a laughing stock amongst my lefty mates.
Well it will be their party which will be a laughing stock if they stick with Corbyn!
I have no skin in the game, but Smith seems to have completely changed his tune. Used to be Blairite. Now positioning himself as more radical than Corbyn? My bullshit meter needle just wrapped around the end stop.
Whatever my thoughts about JC, he's never wavered in his views. Smith just seems like an inauthentic chancer.
Chancers tend to win most elections, Blair, Cameron, Clinton, Obama etc. Politicians who have had the same views since they were 7, like Corbyn, tend to do rather less well
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
1) I care about local election results. I seem to remember this being one of the first hting I searched for
Any other thoughts?
ore interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
Easy, it's a swing of 1 from the last election either way. Even if there is no swing at all there's bound to be some small number of seats that change hands.
My prediction is far more realistic and practical, than May even gaining more than in her political Honeymoon.
Delusional, but even if true it leaves Labour impotent on the opposition benches for another 5 years.
Face it. Jezza is a disaster.
Compared with the alternatives of this year and last year, he is the least bad option.
Clearly the Labour party doesn't
Labour have won only 3 General elections in the last 40 years, all under the Centrist New Labour flag. They have lost 6 in the same period under more left wing leaders. Don't say you were not warned!
The country paid dearly for the New Labour years, and the Labour party is still struggling from the ruins of it's legacy.
No one wants a repeat of Blair and Brown apart from you, John Rentoul, and Dan Hodges it seems. Or do you really think that the mess of devolution, wars and financial crisis are the right way of doing things ?
People do not want to repeat the recent past that left them with bitter memories.
There was a lot wrong with New Labour, which is why I left the party in 2003. I do not want a repeat of Blair and Brown.
Nonetheless Jezza is going to be a disaster for Labour at the 2020 GE.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
If candidates at the parish level want to have party political labels, Mr Llama, they can have them. Most prefer not to do so. There is no law against it. Some parish/town councils are highly political.
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
?
ore interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
Easy, it's a swing of 1 from the last election either way. Even if there is no .
Delusional, but even if true it leaves Labour impotent on the opposition benches for another 5 years.
Face it. Jezza is a disaster.
Compared with the alternatives of this year and last year, he is the least bad option.
Clearly the Labour party doesn't know for decades now what it wants. Labour voters don't want to vote for right wing or liberal policies, but Labour MP's think it's necessary to support right wing or liberal policies in order to become ministers.
It's the struggle of getting that extra 10% of voters to win elections without losing any of your own supporters. It's a fine balance, but most Labour MP's clearly don't know how to do it, they have come out as out of touch, power hungry, and empty suits.
Tories, LDs and UKIP voters all preferred Smith in a BMG poll today, Greens, SNP, Plaid...and Labour voters preferred Corbyn, says it all.
See? Smith has failed to carry his own party voters to support him, and I'm sure that most voters on the right and centre would still prefer May over Smith anyway.
Thus Smith would carry the loyal support of not a single voter group. Falling between the gap while trying to ride two boats.
Like a classic european socialist and social-democratic party that fails to retain voter loyalty during it's pursuit of power, Owen Smith is the british version of Hollande.
Well I know for a fact plenty don't round my way (though some at least are in the process of preparing them). I've no idea if that experience is regular, but I imagine plenty of parishes lack such plans, and thus even that bit of influence is not in place.
Then the Parish Councilors are fools, stupid and not acting in their area's best interests.
With a plan a village can fend off developers, without one they are sheep before wolves. This is not new stuff it has been going on for years. We had our referendum on the village plan about two years ago and that was after a lengthy period of consultation.
HMG, under the toad Cameron, gave us this one little bit of localism. If your Parish Council aren't taking advantage of it then you deserve to be raped by the developers
Well I know for a fact plenty don't round my way (though some at least are in the process of preparing them). I've no idea if that experience is regular, but I imagine plenty of parishes lack such plans, and thus even that bit of influence is not in place.
Then the Parish Councilors are fools, stupid and not acting in their area's best interests.
With a plan a village can fend off developers, without one they are sheep before wolves. This is not new stuff it has been going on for years. We had our referendum on the village plan about two years ago and that was after a lengthy period of consultation.
HMG, under the toad Cameron, gave us this one little bit of localism. If your Parish Council aren't taking advantage of it then you deserve to be raped by the developers
Oh its not mine, its loads of the parishes, that's why I think it is probably fairly common.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
If candidates at the parish level want to have party political labels, Mr Llama, they can have them. Most prefer not to do so. There is no law against it. Some parish/town councils are highly political.
Quite so. I cannot say I come across political candidates much in parish councils, but it many of the town (and the one city) councils, which are status wise just larger parish councils, it is common.
It would appear that Theresa wants to dot the i's and cross the T's.
Mind you it is a big expensive decision so worthwhile the PM spending time understanding it and the resulting issues.
It's massively expensive, it will take a very long time to be built, the government will foot the bill, and it's dangerous.
Surely there are cheaper, faster, less dangerous ways to produce energy and without the government paying the bill.
You forgot to mention it will inevitably cost a lot more than they are currently saying it will, even with its current expense, which no doubt will blow back on us.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
If candidates at the parish level want to have party political labels, Mr Llama, they can have them. Most prefer not to do so. There is no law against it. Some parish/town councils are highly political.
I didn't know that it was a candidate choice, Mr Clipp. Thanks for that. None of the candidates around here have ever chosen to put their party affiliation next to their names in the elections here in the last twenty-odd years. I wonder why
The polling co's do not support this revival by the bearded sandal brigade
No, but they have to start somewhere and grassroot politics is as good a place as any. There is a massive vacancy for the Opposition to the Tories at the moment. Favourite to fill it are SDP2 or UKIP but the Lib Dems should have a pot.
?
ore interesting is the possibility of the Tory majoritybeing bigger than the PLP.
232-+10 seats.
Labour will lose some seats in rural areas, but gain a few in urban ones. The wild card will be that local unpopularity of some Labour MP's may exceed party loyalty.
The LD will probably lose their only seat in scotland (along with Labour), and possibly lose Sheffield Hallam and Southport, but may gain a seat in Cornwall.
Have a play and see what is needed for Lab 10 seat gains.
Easy, it's a swing of 1 from the last election either way. Even if there is no .
Delusional, but even if true it leaves Labour impotent on the opposition benches for another 5 years.
Face it. Jezza is a disaster.
Compared with the alternatives of this year and last year, he is the least bad option. .
It's the struggle of getting that extra 10.
Tories, LDs and UKIP voters all preferre.
See? Smith has failed to carry his own party voters to support him, and I'm sure that most voters on the right and centre would still prefer May over Smith anyway.
Thus Smith would carry the loyal support of not a single voter group. Falling between the gap while trying to ride two boats.
Like a classic european socialist and social-democratic party that fails to retain voter loyalty during it's pursuit of power, Owen Smith is the british version of Hollande.
Smith has failed to carry his own party supporters with him as the only party supporters still left voting for Corbyn Labour are those who would also have voted for Michael Foot. The rest have defected to the Tories, UKIP or the LDs. Smith at least offers a chance to win a few of them back, Corbyn just offers a May landslide. Hollande may I remind you also won a general election in 2012, something Corbyn will almost certainly never get close to doing
It would appear that Theresa wants to dot the i's and cross the T's.
Mind you it is a big expensive decision so worthwhile the PM spending time understanding it and the resulting issues.
It's massively expensive, it will take a very long time to be built, the government will foot the bill, and it's dangerous.
Surely there are cheaper, faster, less dangerous ways to produce energy and without the government paying the bill.
I noted my own MP comparing Hinkley unit prices with renewable energy. Makes you despair really. I have a lot of respect for Robert, so when he advocated CCGTs I checked it out. There's no contest, we would do far better with CCGT with lower capital and running costs.
Complication is that the French want us to build Hinkley. Hollande offered May time to review, but it's a political, not a business decision. Pure business logic would say cancel it tomorrow.
The night so far in supporting nomination meetings
Bristol NW: Corbyn Swansea West: Corbyn Grantham and Stamford : Corbyn Brent Central: Corbyn 69 Smith 24 Romford: Corbyn 18 Smith 10 Crewe & Nantwich: Corbyn 67 Smith 11 Bristol East: Corbyn 52 Smith 20 Colchester: Corbyn South Thanet: Corbyn 25 Smith 2 Spoilt 1 Morecambe and Lunesdale : Corbyn Southampton Test : Corbyn Chesterfield: Corbyn
Streatham: Smith Altrincham and Sale West: Smith 21 Corbyn 15 West Ham: Smith 30 Corbyn 27 Vauxhall: Smith 107 Corbyn 73
These figures represent a tiny % of the membership of most CLPs. They have no binding force at all and may have little bearing on how members will vote in 4 or 5 weeks time.
I think so far 80% or more of CLP's have declared their support for Corbyn.
But it's a safe choice, the BMG poll today had Labour voters past and present backing Corbyn over Smith by large or very large margins (60-75% for Corbyn).
Since the Members have even larger support for Corbyn than Labour voters, you can see that Corbyn could have an excess of a 2-1 lead over Smith.
Possibly if members were voting today but I would expect Smith's higher profile to eat into that margin over coming weeks.
I'm not sure Smith is one of those candidates where knowing more helps. The BBC 999 story made him a laughing stock amongst my lefty mates.
Well it will be their party which will be a laughing stock if they stick with Corbyn!
I have no skin in the game, but Smith seems to have completely changed his tune. Used to be Blairite. Now positioning himself as more radical than Corbyn? My bullshit meter needle just wrapped around the end stop.
Whatever my thoughts about JC, he's never wavered in his views. Smith just seems like an inauthentic chancer.
Chancers tend to win most elections, Blair, Cameron, Clinton, Obama etc. Politicians who have had the same views since they were 7, like Corbyn, tend to do rather less well
Chancers who tack towards and appeal to the centre do. Not those who try to out-radical their competitors or opponents.
There is an analogy with Momentum and the Kippers. Sort of. Both are playing the long game to reap rewards in the longer term. Of the two and atm, for better or worse, the Kippers are more in tune with current thinking.
Plus of course they just won the most important political victory in a generation.
Smith has failed to carry his own party supporters with him as the only party supporters still left voting for Corbyn Labour are those who would also have voted for Michael Foot. The rest have defected to the Tories, UKIP or the LDs. Smith at least offers a chance to win a few of them back, Corbyn just offers a May landslide. Hollande may I remind you also won a general election in 2012, something Corbyn will almost certainly never get close to doing
So while handfuls of activists up and down the country are nominating Corbyn for leader in the CLPs, in the real world Labour voters are leaving in droves.
Additionally the Parish Council ballot sheet does not mention political parties, just the names and addresses of the candidates.
If candidates at the parish level want to have party political labels, Mr Llama, they can have them. Most prefer not to do so. There is no law against it. Some parish/town councils are highly political.
I didn't know that it was a candidate choice, Mr Clipp. Thanks for that. None of the candidates around here have ever chosen to put their party affiliation next to their names in the elections here in the last twenty-odd years. I wonder why
Are you in a parish parish or a town parish? I cannot see the bother with either, tbh, but towns seem to like to play the game more.
So while handfuls of activists up and down the country are nominating Corbyn for leader in the CLPs, in the real world Labour voters are leaving in droves.
I'd have to go back and check, but I'm sure they've won some of these weekly by-elections just fine. I think Labour are in a bad way, but it's not universally so I think.
Comments
We should never refrain from the possibility that local unpopularity of MP's might outweigh party loyalty.
So Parish Councils have a leetle more relevance to people's lives than, the village hall, local fete and the public loos, don't they?
Even if there is no swing at all there's bound to be some small number of seats that change hands.
My prediction is far more realistic and practical, than May even gaining more than in her political Honeymoon.
Face it. Jezza is a disaster.
One of the most amusing parts of the Corbyn fiasco for me is watching all those pro-Corbyn social media having to row back on the bold claims about how he was going to 'win back Scotland'. Clueless.
From the CLP nominations I am aware of Corbyn presently leads Smith 30 - 9.
I'll offer you 4-1 on the libdems losing o&s at the next general if you like
It's fine to have the abstract idea of a challenger to Corbyn being successful on paper.
But once you have a challenger the more people know him the more they are convinced Corbyn is a better choice.
Angela Eagle was so bad she never even made it out of the gate.
Owen Smith sank his campaign early on when he opened his mouth.
Like last year, Corbyn is by default the least bad option.
Not serious money (because I am not allowed to that anymore) but I'll wager a bottle of something decent or, say, fifty quid to your favourite charity (RNLI for me) that at the next GE Labour will secure between 27.5% and 28.5% of the vote, bet void if there is a split in the party.
What say you, Doc, are you on?
Less than 10% outside London
A man who has no appeal outside London according to PLP is Corbyn
A bottle of VSOP Congnac vs a bottle of Single Malt?
https://twitter.com/williamsonkev/status/758773255826239492
Whatever my thoughts about JC, he's never wavered in his views. Smith just seems like an inauthentic chancer.
Corbyn has done well to alienate one of the increasingly few areas where Labour were doing well with his non perfomance in the referendum.
1. Lib Dems do better at local than national level.
2. The Opposition outperforms its national level of support at local level. There is almost always swing back at the subsequent general election.
If Labour are level-pegging with the Tories locally, now, that implies a big Tory lead In 2020.
When factored in 2016 members will boost the Corbyn numbers.
I still think the overall final tally of members votes will be circa 60/40
Clearly the Labour party doesn't know for decades now what it wants.
Labour voters don't want to vote for right wing or liberal policies, but Labour MP's think it's necessary to support right wing or liberal policies in order to become ministers.
It's the struggle of getting that extra 10% of voters to win elections without losing any of your own supporters.
It's a fine balance, but most Labour MP's clearly don't know how to do it, they have come out as out of touch, power hungry, and empty suits.
Don't mess with him and swing back.
https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/758600070564577280
With regret I must decline your very kind offer.
Scottish voters // On who to trust to make decisions about Trident: SNP: 26% CON: 21% LAB: 5% LDEM: 3% UKIP: 1% None of them: 22% (YouGov)
No one wants a repeat of Blair and Brown apart from you, John Rentoul, and Dan Hodges it seems.
Or do you really think that the mess of devolution, wars and financial crisis are the right way of doing things ?
People do not want to repeat the recent past that left them with bitter memories.
Last year, just 39% of CLPs nominated Jeremy Corbyn.
This year, 82% of CLPs have so far nominated Jeremy Corbyn
Amazing news that 21 Constituency Labour Parties have nominated @jeremycorbyn this evening, bringing the total up to 48! #SuperThursday
It would appear that Theresa wants to dot the i's and cross the T's.
Mind you it is a big expensive decision so worthwhile the PM spending time understanding it and the resulting issues.
Its now
Jeremy Corbyn for PM @JeremyCorbyn4PM 58s59 seconds ago
#superthursday results so far 49 CLPs nominate @jeremycorbyn 11 nominate Owen Smit
Nonetheless Jezza is going to be a disaster for Labour at the 2020 GE.
Smith has failed to carry his own party voters to support him, and I'm sure that most voters on the right and centre would still prefer May over Smith anyway.
Thus Smith would carry the loyal support of not a single voter group.
Falling between the gap while trying to ride two boats.
Like a classic european socialist and social-democratic party that fails to retain voter loyalty during it's pursuit of power, Owen Smith is the british version of Hollande.
With a plan a village can fend off developers, without one they are sheep before wolves. This is not new stuff it has been going on for years. We had our referendum on the village plan about two years ago and that was after a lengthy period of consultation.
HMG, under the toad Cameron, gave us this one little bit of localism. If your Parish Council aren't taking advantage of it then you deserve to be raped by the developers
Reminiscent of Gordon Brown.
Those that will not vote Labour anyway?
You for example
Liberal Democrat HOLD St Julians (Newport).
LD 948
Lab 432
UKIP 158
Con 135
Plaid 71
Green 25
Surely there are cheaper, faster, less dangerous ways to produce energy and without the government paying the bill.
LDEM: 53.7% (+11.6)
LAB: 24.4% (-20.3)
UKIP: 8.8% (+8.8)
CON: 7.6% (-5.5)
PC: 4.0% (+4.0)
GRN: 1.4% (+1.4)
Complication is that the French want us to build Hinkley. Hollande offered May time to review, but it's a political, not a business decision. Pure business logic would say cancel it tomorrow.
There is an analogy with Momentum and the Kippers. Sort of. Both are playing the long game to reap rewards in the longer term. Of the two and atm, for better or worse, the Kippers are more in tune with current thinking.
Plus of course they just won the most important political victory in a generation.
Lib Dem 948
Labour 432
UKIP 156
Tory 135
Plaid Cymru 71
Green 25
Apparently the other two seats in the ward are held by Labour.