politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The nastiness in the LAB leadership race is getting worse a
Comments
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Actually, maybe they ought to just get on with managing the incident rather than be expected to give a running commentary.EPG said:
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.Y0kel said:
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?nunu said:
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.Y0kel said:
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?Moses_ said:Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.0 -
I agree one hundred per cent. We can wait. That is what we used to do ten years ago.JohnLilburne said:
Actually, maybe they ought to just get on with managing the incident rather than be expected to give a running commentary.EPG said:
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.Y0kel said:
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?nunu said:
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.Y0kel said:
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?Moses_ said:Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.0 -
Bad Taste Alert....
I think I can see a new opportunity for political betting. Just need someone to offer odds on which bunch of terrorist nutters responsible for attack.....0 -
That ethnic is no guarantee. If you had said that in the UK. I could probably buy it 99%, in Germany that 99% could be 90% or 80%.EPG said:
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.Y0kel said:
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?nunu said:
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.Y0kel said:
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?Moses_ said:Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.
You have a situation whereby eyewitnesses reported multiple attackers yet visual evidence of one, with an incident or incidents in a confined space.
8 dead people, white German, Turkish maybe? Random, again no info.
You only have to look at our truck driving murderer in Nice as a fine example of the confusion and perhaps deliberate bullshit. Loner, mental health issues, possibly bisexual, randomer ..now, accomplices, months of planning. I posted on here a short time after the attack that a person of remarkably similar name was thrown up by 3rd party agencies as having longer term Jihadist links whilst the French authorities were still talking about rapid radicalisation.
I'll post at some point on how there is an interesting pattern of released responses by the authorities perhaps appearing when a one person spectacular occurs.
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It occurs to me that Liberal Democrats are an Ethic Minority.0
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Ok. To be honest this just makes me more eager to wait about five or ten hours before even thinking about these things as they happen - as long as I am lucky enough to be not on the spot.Y0kel said:That ethnic is no guarantee. If you had said that in the UK. I could probably buy it 99%, in Germany that 99% could be 90% or 80%.
You have a situation whereby eyewitnesses reported multiple attackers yet visual evidence of one, with an incident or incidents in a confined space.
8 dead people, white German, Turkish maybe? Random, again no info.
You only have to look at our truck driving murderer in Nice as a fine example of the confusion and perhaps deliberate bullshit. Loner, mental health issues, possibly bisexual, randomer ..now, accomplices, months of planning. I posted on here a short time after the attack that a person of remarkably similar name was thrown up by 3rd party agencies as having longer term Jihadist links whilst the French authorities were still talking about rapid radicalisation.
I'll post at some point on how there is an interesting pattern of released responses by the authorities perhaps appearing when a one person spectacular occurs.0 -
I'm beginning to wonder if that involved an inside job in the police. How he was allowed into the area if the reports are to be believed makes Inspector Cleaseau look like an old pro.Y0kel said:
That ethnic is no guarantee. If you had said that in the UK. I could probably buy it 99%, in Germany that 99% could be 90% or 80%.EPG said:
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.Y0kel said:
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?nunu said:
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.Y0kel said:
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?Moses_ said:Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.
You have a situation whereby eyewitnesses reported multiple attackers yet visual evidence of one, with an incident or incidents in a confined space.
8 dead people, white German, Turkish maybe? Random, again no info.
You only have to look at our truck driving murderer in Nice as a fine example of the confusion and perhaps deliberate bullshit. Loner, mental health issues, possibly bisexual, randomer ..now, accomplices, months of planning. I posted on here a short time after the attack that a person of remarkably similar name was thrown up by 3rd party agencies as having longer term Jihadist links whilst the French authorities were still talking about rapid radicalisation.
I'll post at some point on how there is an interesting pattern of released responses by the authorities perhaps appearing when a one person spectacular occurs.0 -
I miss silly season.0
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I once had a fine example how perhaps betting on initial reaction could certainly lead you up the wrong tree in Belfast.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Bad Taste Alert....
I think I can see a new opportunity for political betting. Just need someone to offer odds on which bunch of terrorist nutters responsible for attack.....
A killing had occurred of a well known figure. The response from said figure's associates was going to be was swift retaliation against the other side with talk of a particular group having done it. Shortly after the incident occurred, someone called me about the incident and gave the the reported description of the attacker.
They told me that they could hear the proverbial light switch in my head click on as it dawned on me who had been the gunman.
It wasn't the other side at all.0 -
Is it me or is the translation of this press conference on sky news really literal and pretty unhelpful...0
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Yes, let's just wait. I just hope they hope they find the other shooters before anyone else dies.Y0kel said:
That ethnic is no guarantee. If you had said that in the UK. I could probably buy it 99%, in Germany that 99% could be 90% or 80%.
You have a situation whereby eyewitnesses reported multiple attackers yet visual evidence of one, with an incident or incidents in a confined space.
8 dead people, white German, Turkish maybe? Random, again no info.
You only have to look at our truck driving murderer in Nice as a fine example of the confusion and perhaps deliberate bullshit. Loner, mental health issues, possibly bisexual, randomer ..now, accomplices, months of planning. I posted on here a short time after the attack that a person of remarkably similar name was thrown up by 3rd party agencies as having longer term Jihadist links whilst the French authorities were still talking about rapid radicalisation.
I'll post at some point on how there is an interesting pattern of released responses by the authorities perhaps appearing when a one person spectacular occurs.0 -
German police have a found a body with a headshot. Suspicion someone involved in earlier shooting.
They still don't know if its the attacker..or one of a number0 -
Or a spread on the numbers that immediately jump to a conclusion on which bunch of terrorist nutters were responsible for an attack?Paul_Bedfordshire said:Bad Taste Alert....
I think I can see a new opportunity for political betting. Just need someone to offer odds on which bunch of terrorist nutters responsible for attack.....0 -
Quite. The police and security services involved in the incident are not interested in Twitter and the modern 24 hour news cycle. They are doing what they are doing, and will release information at a time when they believe that information to be both correct and useful.EPG said:
I agree one hundred per cent. We can wait. That is what we used to do ten years ago.JohnLilburne said:
Actually, maybe they ought to just get on with managing the incident rather than be expected to give a running commentary.EPG said:
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.Y0kel said:
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?nunu said:
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.Y0kel said:
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?Moses_ said:Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.0 -
Hillary's VP has been delayed until tomorrow, some say the events of today others say that she has changed her mind about Kaine.0
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The first round of polling in French Presidential Elections always stays as a complete mystery to me. It's as if tactical voting is just a complete national no-no.EPG said:
Well on present polling, Hollande is either fourth or fifth in the first round. So an unlikely contender for the second round.HYUFD said:
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent presidentrcs1000 said:Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.
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Admittedly all of what I'm about to say is based on Universal swing which is right out of the window this election ( http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/ ) but still:MaxPB said:
Isn't it the US equivalent of the 2.8m who might swing it for Trump. People who don't normally vote and who aren't picked up by polling companies.Alistair said:
Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.Casino_Royale said:
Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.Casino_Royale said:
JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.HurstLlama said:
Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.JackW said:
Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.HYUFD said:Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world
As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.
But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.
If Non-College Whites (the American 2.8 million group) increase their turnout and increase their republican support by 5% point each (so 67% vote republican in 2016 vs 62% in 2012 and 62% Turnout vs 57%) then Hilary still wins.
In that situation it would take Black turnout dropping 5% to swing it for Trump.
And that's without considering the Hispanic vote. Even a couple of points swing to the Dems in the above scenario is enough to keep Hilary safe again.0 -
Pong can't demean himself. He is already in the sewer.Pauly said:
You have demeaned yourself with this accusation.Pong said:
Boris Johnson Verified account
@BorisJohnson
Deeply shocked & saddened by #Munich shootings. My thoughts are w/ the victims, their loved ones & all #Germany at this time0 -
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.AndyJS said:O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/0 -
Individual pollsters are all over the place. you need to pay incredibly close attention to their cross tabs.chestnut said:
So they are reliable?corporeal said:
More boring, i.e. more accurate modelling.chestnut said:What's the norm in the US with their polls?
I'd fancy Trump to win if we applied UK norms,which almost always understate the right, to their polls .
Since they can do state by state polling they can get a very accurate prediction0 -
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.HurstLlama said:
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.AndyJS said:O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/0 -
To be honest, I'd expect NCW to swing more than 5% to the GOP and Black turnout to drop more than 5% given Obama is no longer a candidate.Alistair said:
Admittedly all of what I'm about to say is based on Universal swing which is right out of the window this election ( http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/ ) but still:MaxPB said:
Isn't it the US equivalent of the 2.8m who might swing it for Trump. People who don't normally vote and who aren't picked up by polling companies.Alistair said:
Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.Casino_Royale said:
Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.Casino_Royale said:
JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.HurstLlama said:
Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.JackW said:
Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.HYUFD said:Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world
As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.
But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.
If Non-College Whites (the American 2.8 million group) increase their turnout and increase their republican support by 5% point each (so 67% vote republican in 2016 vs 62% in 2012 and 62% Turnout vs 57%) then Hilary still wins.
In that situation it would take Black turnout dropping 5% to swing it for Trump.
And that's without considering the Hispanic vote. Even a couple of points swing to the Dems in the above scenario is enough to keep Hilary safe again.
But more than this, my gut has said for a long time that a strong candidate would beat Hilary. Trump is riding this electoral wave very well.0 -
At this stage, any endorsement for Gary Johnson the Libertarian Party Candidate for President, could push him over the 15% threshold and in to the debates at which point: Everything could change.Speedy said:About Trump's chances.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
There are also other things, Jeb Bush and Romney will endorse Gary Johnson next week, they are very unpopular among the public and republicans outside of Utah, so it will probably cost Trump Utah but nothing else and will probably damage Johnson outside of Utah.
If will be highly ironic if the candidate for libertarians ends up being endorsed by the Bush family, whom libertarians hate.
I speak for myself not for all Libertarians, but to me, part of the core of that philosophy is to judge ever individual on their merits, and not because of any group that they may be part of, race, gender, Sexual Orientation OR FAMILY. Jeb Bush was not amazing, but to me and based on his time as the governor of Florida, he is better than most Politicians, a C+ maybe, that may not sound good but its a lot better than I would give to most other politicians.
As for Mitt Romney, again not exhalant but better than many. and there are people that still listen to him, some will be Mormon, but others will be 'Thinking Republicans' and together they could be the numbers to push Gary Johnson over 15%.0 -
"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/22/shots-fired-at-munich-shopping-centre/0 -
Juppe is more likely to be the Gaullist candidateHYUFD said:
Yes and the left loathe Sarkozy far more than they disliked Chiracdavid_herdson said:
At the moment, the left would back Sarkozy in sufficient numbers to see him over the line, though it'd be far closer than 2002. It's far from a done deal either way though. Were he to tack too far right, the left might just sit it out.HYUFD said:
Sarkozy wins the middle-class, Le Pen the working class and where the left go would be interestingwilliamglenn said:
The most interesting contest would be Le Pen vs Sarkozy because he's likely to skirt so close to her that she may be able to outflank him on the left.HYUFD said:
She probably wins round 1 in my view, round 2 depends on her opponentGIN1138 said:
President Trump is a "given" IMO.HYUFD said:Yet more terrible terrorist attack la, this time in Germany. Will likely boost the Afd there and the more these attacks become almost routine the more likely we end up with a President Trump or Le Pen
President Le Pen... France might pull back from the brink, though the French political establishment basically telling the French people to "get used" to terrorist outrages must give her a shout.0 -
I guess it is possible he was saying Alluah Akbar sarcastically as he shot muslims?AndyJS said:"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/22/shots-fired-at-munich-shopping-centre/0 -
why not speculate even more aimlessly?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I guess it is possible he was saying Alluah Akbar sarcastically as he shot muslims?AndyJS said:"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/22/shots-fired-at-munich-shopping-centre/0 -
WikiLeaks releases thousands of documents about Clinton and internal deliberations https://t.co/UXbhEcyIy8
See: https://t.co/kpFxYDoNyX0 -
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.AndyJS said:
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.HurstLlama said:
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.AndyJS said:O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/0 -
Sky have got hold of the transcript between one of the gunmen and a rather brave member of the public who got into a shouting match with him.
http://news.sky.com/story/i-am-german-munich-gunman-shouts-to-witness-10509927
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Supporting nominations
Westminster North: Smith 49 Corbyn 22
Richmond Park: Smith
Lancaster and Fleetwood: Corbyn 71 Smith 30
Liverpool West Derby: Corbyn 59 Smith 47
Reigate: Corbyn 15 Smith 9
Clwyd West: Corbyn unanimously
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You have the Labour leadership.wasd said:I miss silly season.
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@Mortimer
Although Obama is no longer a candidate, there is a strong fear among Black Americans about what a Trump presidency means for them. So that could motivate many to turnout.0 -
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.Speedy said:About Trump's chances.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...
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CNN
#Munich eyewitness says her 8-year-old son saw a "man loading his gun" in the bathroom https://t.co/sfUly5nvit https://t.co/t2GZ1OoUPd0 -
So that's where this benefits suggestion has come from - I not sure the reference to Hertz 4 necessarily means this is a benefit claimant.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Sky have got hold of the transcript between one of the gunmen and a rather brave member of the public who got into a shouting match with him.
http://news.sky.com/story/i-am-german-munich-gunman-shouts-to-witness-105099270 -
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Sky bods definitely pushing the right wing extremist angle now.AndyJS said:"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/22/shots-fired-at-munich-shopping-centre/0 -
Was always going to happen this week, the question is if anything in the released material is substantial enough. To me as an IT guy, the more fact of her rogue insecure mail server is enough to disqualify her from office, but the DNC are going to want more than that. If it transpires the Wikileaks leaks came from Russia or China, that might do it.PlatoSaid said:WikiLeaks releases thousands of documents about Clinton and internal deliberations https://t.co/UXbhEcyIy8
See: https://t.co/kpFxYDoNyX0 -
Fake quote.Scott_P said:0 -
@MartynMcL: Unprecedented decision by the @washingtonpost editorial board, and entirely welcome. https://t.co/dIWZV1pJ3r https://t.co/SkE7GQnb8t0
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An endorsement by Romney or Bush would halve Johnson's numbers outside of Utah.BigRich said:
At this stage, any endorsement for Gary Johnson the Libertarian Party Candidate for President, could push him over the 15% threshold and in to the debates at which point: Everything could change.Speedy said:About Trump's chances.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
There are also other things, Jeb Bush and Romney will endorse Gary Johnson next week, they are very unpopular among the public and republicans outside of Utah, so it will probably cost Trump Utah but nothing else and will probably damage Johnson outside of Utah.
If will be highly ironic if the candidate for libertarians ends up being endorsed by the Bush family, whom libertarians hate.
I speak for myself not for all Libertarians, but to me, part of the core of that philosophy is to judge ever individual on their merits, and not because of any group that they may be part of, race, gender, Sexual Orientation OR FAMILY. Jeb Bush was not amazing, but to me and based on his time as the governor of Florida, he is better than most Politicians, a C+ maybe, that may not sound good but its a lot better than I would give to most other politicians.
As for Mitt Romney, again not exhalant but better than many. and there are people that still listen to him, some will be Mormon, but others will be 'Thinking Republicans' and together they could be the numbers to push Gary Johnson over 15%.
It would destroy Johnson's reputation as a nice man, just like the Cruz-Kasich alliance damaged the credibility and reputation of both.
Getting an endorsement from neo-nazis, Romney, or Bush are terrible for once reputation and should be avoided.0 -
Sky were also the ones pushing rhe lone wolf and gay angle with Nice.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky bods definitely pushing the right wing extremist angle now.AndyJS said:"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/22/shots-fired-at-munich-shopping-centre/0 -
Well all the media pushed the lone wolf not a real Muslim angle, even after the mystery 100k euro transfer.MaxPB said:
Sky were also the ones pushing rhe lone wolf and gay angle with Nice.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky bods definitely pushing the right wing extremist angle now.AndyJS said:"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/22/shots-fired-at-munich-shopping-centre/0 -
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.HurstLlama said:
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.AndyJS said:
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.HurstLlama said:
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.AndyJS said:O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/0 -
Why have Sky decided to censor the swearing in that conversation? Is that really the most pressing concern right now?tlg86 said:
So that's where this benefits suggestion has come from - I not sure the reference to Hertz 4 necessarily means this is a benefit claimant.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Sky have got hold of the transcript between one of the gunmen and a rather brave member of the public who got into a shouting match with him.
http://news.sky.com/story/i-am-german-munich-gunman-shouts-to-witness-105099270 -
It certainly could be a Nazi, but I'd like to wait and see what he German government or police say.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well all the media pushed the lone wolf not a real Muslim angle, even after the mystery 100k euro transfer.MaxPB said:
Sky were also the ones pushing rhe lone wolf and gay angle with Nice.FrancisUrquhart said:
Sky bods definitely pushing the right wing extremist angle now.AndyJS said:"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/22/shots-fired-at-munich-shopping-centre/0 -
Trump actually leads with Rasmussen today, never mind November. The RCP poll average has been right in the last 3 presidential elections so that will be vital to watch. Hillary led by about 2% before Trump's speechGIN1138 said:
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.Speedy said:About Trump's chances.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...0 -
Keep Hilary safe again!Alistair said:
Admittedly all of what I'm about to say is based on Universal swing which is right out of the window this election ( http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/ ) but still:MaxPB said:
Isn't it the US equivalent of the 2.8m who might swing it for Trump. People who don't normally vote and who aren't picked up by polling companies.Alistair said:
Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.Casino_Royale said:
Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.Casino_Royale said:
JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.HurstLlama said:
Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.JackW said:
Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.HYUFD said:Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world
As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.
But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.
If Non-College Whites (the American 2.8 million group) increase their turnout and increase their republican support by 5% point each (so 67% vote republican in 2016 vs 62% in 2012 and 62% Turnout vs 57%) then Hilary still wins.
In that situation it would take Black turnout dropping 5% to swing it for Trump.
And that's without considering the Hispanic vote. Even a couple of points swing to the Dems in the above scenario is enough to keep Hilary safe again.0 -
The Washington Post is a democratic party newspaper since it's foundation I think, so no news there, Daily Mirror endorsing Labour in an election level kind of news.Scott_P said:@MartynMcL: Unprecedented decision by the @washingtonpost editorial board, and entirely welcome. https://t.co/dIWZV1pJ3r https://t.co/SkE7GQnb8t
But on the VP level.
Hillary is in Florida, today and tomorrow.
Elizabeth Warren is in Florida, today and tomorrow.
Tim Kaine was in Boston all day today.
I don't think Kaine should be that high on the betting sites.0 -
I don't know who is crazier ...the shooter or the guy shoutimg abuse at the shooter!0
-
Surely that means it's probably not a jihadi, wouldn't the jihadi just shoot that person.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't know who is crazier ...the shooter or the guy shoutimg abuse at the shooter!
0 -
In this big swinging microchip battle I'm cheering on Jeff Bezos over Peter Thiel. At least Bezos is just a techie oddball who thinks his company should be run as Darwinian survival of the fittest. Thiel believes everything else should be run that way too, without democracy and preferably on floating seasteads in the Pacific away from meddling government.Scott_P said:@MartynMcL: Unprecedented decision by the @washingtonpost editorial board, and entirely welcome. https://t.co/dIWZV1pJ3r https://t.co/SkE7GQnb8t
0 -
He has to get through the centre right primary first and the party base will comprise most of the voters and they may prefer Sarkozy's tough rhetoric following recent terror attacksFenman said:
Juppe is more likely to be the Gaullist candidateHYUFD said:
Yes and the left loathe Sarkozy far more than they disliked Chiracdavid_herdson said:
At the moment, the left would back Sarkozy in sufficient numbers to see him over the line, though it'd be far closer than 2002. It's far from a done deal either way though. Were he to tack too far right, the left might just sit it out.HYUFD said:
Sarkozy wins the middle-class, Le Pen the working class and where the left go would be interestingwilliamglenn said:
The most interesting contest would be Le Pen vs Sarkozy because he's likely to skirt so close to her that she may be able to outflank him on the left.HYUFD said:
She probably wins round 1 in my view, round 2 depends on her opponentGIN1138 said:
President Trump is a "given" IMO.HYUFD said:Yet more terrible terrorist attack la, this time in Germany. Will likely boost the Afd there and the more these attacks become almost routine the more likely we end up with a President Trump or Le Pen
President Le Pen... France might pull back from the brink, though the French political establishment basically telling the French people to "get used" to terrorist outrages must give her a shout.0 -
Yes, populism is on the risejohn_zims said:@HYUFD
'Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president '
Exactly, the current collection of left / right politicians isn't working,time to try a new face,it couldn't be worse,anti establishment etc.0 -
Mmmm...
Sune Engel Rasmussen @SuneEngel
Nice: Mosques in Munich open all night for everyone stuck because of road blocks https://twitter.com/izmedien/status/756581540663005184 …
10:19 PM - 22 Jul 20160 -
Not a patch on that Scottish chap that kicked the Glasgow airport suicide bomber in the balls so hard he broke a toe.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't know who is crazier ...the shooter or the guy shoutimg abuse at the shooter!
Absolute hero and legend0 -
Indeed she is a stronger candidate than her fatherParistonda said:
The FN are also a party that is predominantly drawing support based on national issues. Like UKIP, I think they are seen as a bit irrelevant when it comes to local elections. So their natural base of supporters don't turn out, but they will for a presidential. Additionally, MLP is a strong candidate being held back by her party's reputation. She's very serious, not at all like Trump, and she herself doesn't say things THAT extreme. I don't think it will be enough to see her over the line in 2017, but she's setting herself up nicely for 2022.HYUFD said:
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent presidentrcs1000 said:Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.0 -
Depends if Sarkozy and Juppe run in round oneEPG said:
Well on present polling, Hollande is either fourth or fifth in the first round. So an unlikely contender for the second round.HYUFD said:
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent presidentrcs1000 said:Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.0 -
Aah, Smeato.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a patch on that Scottish chap that kicked the Glasgow airport suicide bomber in the balls so hard he broke a toe.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't know who is crazier ...the shooter or the guy shoutimg abuse at the shooter!
Absolute hero and legend
Decent work by the guy telling the gunman that he's a wanker.0 -
On topic to be fair to Len McCluskey, it wouldn't be the first time MI5 have plotted against a Labour Leader.0
-
Rasmussen, lol. Are you a platinum member so can view their crosstabs?HYUFD said:
Trump actually leads with Rasmussen today, never mind November. The RCP poll average has been right in the last 3 presidential elections so that will be vital to watch. Hillary led by about 2% before Trump's speechGIN1138 said:
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.Speedy said:About Trump's chances.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...0 -
Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match0 -
Given only 8 people are dead (and I don't say only with any joy) & debating things, I would think nutter rather than IS / IS inspired nutter.MaxPB said:
Surely that means it's probably not a jihadi, wouldn't the jihadi just shoot that person.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't know who is crazier ...the shooter or the guy shoutimg abuse at the shooter!
0 -
Need to rack up 500-600 in the 1st innings now.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match0 -
I cannot find a express type route from Bilbao to Lisbon. It is probably doable for a real railway enthusiast, but Herself ain't one. I think I must resign myself to the fact that I need to persuade her that an overnight stop in Irun, but that is a daunting prospect.Sandpit said:
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.HurstLlama said:
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.AndyJS said:
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.HurstLlama said:
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.AndyJS said:O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/0 -
The overall service provided by Europe's rail network seems to have peaked 30-40 years ago before we had high-speed trains - http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/trains/Sandpit said:
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.HurstLlama said:
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.AndyJS said:
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.HurstLlama said:
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.AndyJS said:O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/0 -
I'll offer you 50-1 on that if you likeHYUFD said:
Depends if Sarkozy and Juppe run in round oneEPG said:
Well on present polling, Hollande is either fourth or fifth in the first round. So an unlikely contender for the second round.HYUFD said:
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent presidentrcs1000 said:Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.0 -
Nonetheless, even looking beyond Rasmussen Hillary's present lead in the RCP poll average is less than Obama won by in 2012 and 2008Alistair said:
Rasmussen, lol. Are you a platinum member so can view their crosstabs?HYUFD said:
Trump actually leads with Rasmussen today, never mind November. The RCP poll average has been right in the last 3 presidential elections so that will be vital to watch. Hillary led by about 2% before Trump's speechGIN1138 said:
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.Speedy said:About Trump's chances.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...0 -
Well we will see next week if you prediction comes true.Speedy said:
An endorsement by Romney or Bush would halve Johnson's numbers outside of Utah.BigRich said:
At this stage, any endorsement for Gary Johnson the Libertarian Party Candidate for President, could push him over the 15% threshold and in to the debates at which point: Everything could change.Speedy said:About Trump's chances.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
There are also other things, Jeb Bush and Romney will endorse Gary Johnson next week, they are very unpopular among the public and republicans outside of Utah, so it will probably cost Trump Utah but nothing else and will probably damage Johnson outside of Utah.
If will be highly ironic if the candidate for libertarians ends up being endorsed by the Bush family, whom libertarians hate.
I speak for myself not for all Libertarians, but to me, part of the core of that philosophy is to judge ever individual on their merits, and not because of any group that they may be part of, race, gender, Sexual Orientation OR FAMILY. Jeb Bush was not amazing, but to me and based on his time as the governor of Florida, he is better than most Politicians, a C+ maybe, that may not sound good but its a lot better than I would give to most other politicians.
As for Mitt Romney, again not exhalant but better than many. and there are people that still listen to him, some will be Mormon, but others will be 'Thinking Republicans' and together they could be the numbers to push Gary Johnson over 15%.
It would destroy Johnson's reputation as a nice man, just like the Cruz-Kasich alliance damaged the credibility and reputation of both.
Getting an endorsement from neo-nazis, Romney, or Bush are terrible for once reputation and should be avoided.
I don't know what ether of them will do, I think it is more likely that Romney will than Bush, but it's possible that both will just say guarded but positive things about him.
Ether way, Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party will get more publicity, and at the moment that's likely to be a good thing for them!
0 -
Can anyone comment as to the veracity of this article, knowing that it's easy to dismiss it as hyperbole given the source?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3702512/Who-did-try-knife-RAF-man-Alan-Partridge-RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-asks-police-increasingly-trying-hide-identity-perpetrators-crime.html
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?0 -
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match0 -
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC0 -
Oh well, unfortunately it's looking like a rather long journey, or one of those new-fangled flying machine thingys.HurstLlama said:
I cannot find a express type route from Bilbao to Lisbon. It is probably doable for a real railway enthusiast, but Herself ain't one. I think I must resign myself to the fact that I need to persuade her that an overnight stop in Irun, but that is a daunting prospect.Sandpit said:
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.HurstLlama said:
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.AndyJS said:
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.HurstLlama said:
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.AndyJS said:O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/0 -
And the Polish rapist, and and and. Frankly I'm finding myself growing very sceptical about the conduct of the police. They're not helping by suppressing stuff.Sandpit said:Can anyone comment as to the veracity of this article, knowing that it's easy to dismiss it as hyperbole given the source?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3702512/Who-did-try-knife-RAF-man-Alan-Partridge-RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-asks-police-increasingly-trying-hide-identity-perpetrators-crime.html
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?0 -
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.0 -
The Bluewater story is one of those stories gets whipped up and myths develop. If I recall at the time, the reason for the delay from the attack to the police issuing a statement was that the victim was in no fit state to be interviewed.Sandpit said:Can anyone comment as to the veracity of this article, knowing that it's easy to dismiss it as hyperbole given the source?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3702512/Who-did-try-knife-RAF-man-Alan-Partridge-RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-asks-police-increasingly-trying-hide-identity-perpetrators-crime.html
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?
The Kent constabulary only confirmed the reported incident last month, when the Messenger asked for information after an exclusive tip-off.
For that, they came in for a barrage of abuse on social media, with people questioning why details of such a serious assault were not made public immediately.
Police confirmed that none of those arrested were Muslim, after rumours circulated online.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/news/four-month-bail-for-gang-rape-95282/0 -
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.Cookie said:
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.0 -
People calm down, as a proven expert of american politics I can tell you to wait until early August, we will have a clear picture of the dynamics of the race that will hold at least until the debates.HYUFD said:
Nonetheless, even looking beyond Rasmussen Hillary's present lead in the RCP poll average is less than Obama won by in 2012 and 2008Alistair said:
Rasmussen, lol. Are you a platinum member so can view their crosstabs?HYUFD said:
Trump actually leads with Rasmussen today, never mind November. The RCP poll average has been right in the last 3 presidential elections so that will be vital to watch. Hillary led by about 2% before Trump's speechGIN1138 said:
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.Speedy said:About Trump's chances.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...
Any nominee has to do the following in order to win.
A. Pick a VP that the party likes.
B. Get a lead after the conventions.
C. Win the debates.
Trump has done A, lets wait and see about B.0 -
One possibility is that it's just one gunman with mental health issues, not allied to any groups, either Islamic or far-right.0
-
Have funTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.Cookie said:
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
0 -
What happened at Marham was not a robbery attempt.
It was an attempt to attack.
As regards Hilary's VP choice, didn't I hear somewhere she was looking at a military man?0 -
It was fun today.Sandpit said:
Have funTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.Cookie said:
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
Was great fun today, this aftenoon felt like everyone was shouting no ball every time Amir bowled0 -
There'll be a direct train from Bilbao to Madrid, then you can get another from there to Lisbon. A bit of a schlep though.HurstLlama said:
I cannot find a express type route from Bilbao to Lisbon. It is probably doable for a real railway enthusiast, but Herself ain't one. I think I must resign myself to the fact that I need to persuade her that an overnight stop in Irun, but that is a daunting prospect.Sandpit said:
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.HurstLlama said:
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.AndyJS said:
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.HurstLlama said:
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.AndyJS said:O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/
0 -
Traitor......TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.Cookie said:
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.0 -
Norman Tebbit would be proud.nunu said:
Traitor......TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.Cookie said:
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.0 -
Thanks, that link adds a lot more detail, including things both said and not said about the suspects.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Bluewater story is one of those stories gets whipped up and myths develop. If I recall at the time, the reason for the delay from the attack to the police issuing a statement was that the victim was in no fit state to be interviewed.Sandpit said:Can anyone comment as to the veracity of this article, knowing that it's easy to dismiss it as hyperbole given the source?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3702512/Who-did-try-knife-RAF-man-Alan-Partridge-RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-asks-police-increasingly-trying-hide-identity-perpetrators-crime.html
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?
The Kent constabulary only confirmed the reported incident last month, when the Messenger asked for information after an exclusive tip-off.
For that, they came in for a barrage of abuse on social media, with people questioning why details of such a serious assault were not made public immediately.
Police confirmed that none of those arrested were Muslim, after rumours circulated online.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/news/four-month-bail-for-gang-rape-95282/
Still don't understand why an abduction from a bus station didn't result in CCTV being all over the evening news that night though, while memories were fresh about things like what clothes people were wearing.0 -
Only problem is that German authorities now seem to be looking for others.AndyJS said:One possibility is that it's just one gunman with mental health issues, not allied to any groups, either Islamic or far-right.
Curiously Austrian security types are on their way to Munich. On the face of it, they don't need to be there right now.0 -
Don't you mean Northwestern India heritage?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.Cookie said:
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
Good to see you liked Star Trek Beyond Parody 0 -
I'm hearing about Charlie Crist, he is present at her Florida rally right now with lots of applause.Y0kel said:What happened at Marham was not a robbery attempt.
It was an attempt to attack.
As regards Hilary's VP choice, didn't I hear somewhere she was looking at a military man?
He is a former Florida governor, originally a republican until defeated by Rubio in the primary for the Senate in 2010, he then ran as an independent and as a democrat.0 -
LOL!TheScreamingEagles said:
It was fun today.Sandpit said:
Have funTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.Cookie said:
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
Was great fun today, this aftenoon felt like everyone was shouting no ball every time Amir bowled
Wish I was there, although to be fair I think I was the only PBer to attend the reciprocal series last winter, all three Tests
0 -
Possibility he's heading for the border?Y0kel said:
Only problem is that German authorities now seem to be looking for others.AndyJS said:One possibility is that it's just one gunman with mental health issues, not allied to any groups, either Islamic or far-right.
Curiously Austrian security types are on their way to Munich. On the face of it, they don't need to be there right now.0 -
According to seat61 it also works via Barcelona and Madrid, always worth a visit:HurstLlama said:
I cannot find a express type route from Bilbao to Lisbon. It is probably doable for a real railway enthusiast, but Herself ain't one. I think I must resign myself to the fact that I need to persuade her that an overnight stop in Irun, but that is a daunting prospect.Sandpit said:
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.HurstLlama said:
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.AndyJS said:
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.HurstLlama said:
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.AndyJS said:O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/
http://www.seat61.com/Portugal.htm#via Madrid0 -
I'm not sure I could cope with a Test Match in the UAE.Sandpit said:
LOL!TheScreamingEagles said:
It was fun today.Sandpit said:
Have funTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.Cookie said:
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
Was great fun today, this aftenoon felt like everyone was shouting no ball every time Amir bowled
Wish I was there, although to be fair I think I was the only PBer to attend the reciprocal series last winter, all three Tests0 -
The newsroom of Munich newspaper @Abendzeitung is being evacuated. Reportedly shots heard in the courtyard. https://t.co/IA6RQNRcwK0
-
The Austrians blocking their border doesn't require its police and security teams to be travelling to Munich.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Possibility he's heading for the border?Y0kel said:
Only problem is that German authorities now seem to be looking for others.AndyJS said:One possibility is that it's just one gunman with mental health issues, not allied to any groups, either Islamic or far-right.
Curiously Austrian security types are on their way to Munich. On the face of it, they don't need to be there right now.0 -
Goodness. There must be more than one gunman in that case.PlatoSaid said:The newsroom of Munich newspaper @Abendzeitung is being evacuated. Reportedly shots heard in the courtyard. https://t.co/IA6RQNRcwK
0 -
The other reason is that the CPS and the courts are concerned about potential jury contamination.Sandpit said:
Thanks, that link adds a lot more detail, including things both said and not said about the suspects.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Bluewater story is one of those stories gets whipped up and myths develop. If I recall at the time, the reason for the delay from the attack to the police issuing a statement was that the victim was in no fit state to be interviewed.Sandpit said:Can anyone comment as to the veracity of this article, knowing that it's easy to dismiss it as hyperbole given the source?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3702512/Who-did-try-knife-RAF-man-Alan-Partridge-RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-asks-police-increasingly-trying-hide-identity-perpetrators-crime.html
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?
The Kent constabulary only confirmed the reported incident last month, when the Messenger asked for information after an exclusive tip-off.
For that, they came in for a barrage of abuse on social media, with people questioning why details of such a serious assault were not made public immediately.
Police confirmed that none of those arrested were Muslim, after rumours circulated online.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/news/four-month-bail-for-gang-rape-95282/
Still don't understand why an abduction from a bus station didn't result in CCTV being all over the evening news that night though, while memories were fresh about things like what clothes people were wearing.
Social media, especially Facebook and Twitter is making it difficult to find an entirely untainted jury at first go when it goes to Crown Court for the most serious crimes.
You might now know the defendant directly, but turns you have a few mutual friends on Facebook, or you might like a page where the alleged crime had been discussed which was sub judice.0 -
No problems. There were only about 500 people there, and the supporters quickly segregated themselves sorted themselves out by ticket price/bar availability. The Pakistani fans sitting next to the Barmy Army in the £20 seats drinking beer were mostly British guys on holiday anyway!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not sure I could cope with a Test Match in the UAE.Sandpit said:
LOL!TheScreamingEagles said:
It was fun today.Sandpit said:
Have funTheScreamingEagles said:
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.Cookie said:
All four days? What luxury.TheScreamingEagles said:
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.Cookie said:
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.TheScreamingEagles said:Off topic, Star Trek Beyond, loved it.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
Was great fun today, this aftenoon felt like everyone was shouting no ball every time Amir bowled
Wish I was there, although to be fair I think I was the only PBer to attend the reciprocal series last winter, all three Tests
The 20/20 matches, on the other hand...0
