A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.
Actually, maybe they ought to just get on with managing the incident rather than be expected to give a running commentary.
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.
Actually, maybe they ought to just get on with managing the incident rather than be expected to give a running commentary.
I agree one hundred per cent. We can wait. That is what we used to do ten years ago.
I think I can see a new opportunity for political betting. Just need someone to offer odds on which bunch of terrorist nutters responsible for attack.....
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.
That ethnic is no guarantee. If you had said that in the UK. I could probably buy it 99%, in Germany that 99% could be 90% or 80%.
You have a situation whereby eyewitnesses reported multiple attackers yet visual evidence of one, with an incident or incidents in a confined space.
8 dead people, white German, Turkish maybe? Random, again no info.
You only have to look at our truck driving murderer in Nice as a fine example of the confusion and perhaps deliberate bullshit. Loner, mental health issues, possibly bisexual, randomer ..now, accomplices, months of planning. I posted on here a short time after the attack that a person of remarkably similar name was thrown up by 3rd party agencies as having longer term Jihadist links whilst the French authorities were still talking about rapid radicalisation.
I'll post at some point on how there is an interesting pattern of released responses by the authorities perhaps appearing when a one person spectacular occurs.
That ethnic is no guarantee. If you had said that in the UK. I could probably buy it 99%, in Germany that 99% could be 90% or 80%.
You have a situation whereby eyewitnesses reported multiple attackers yet visual evidence of one, with an incident or incidents in a confined space.
8 dead people, white German, Turkish maybe? Random, again no info.
You only have to look at our truck driving murderer in Nice as a fine example of the confusion and perhaps deliberate bullshit. Loner, mental health issues, possibly bisexual, randomer ..now, accomplices, months of planning. I posted on here a short time after the attack that a person of remarkably similar name was thrown up by 3rd party agencies as having longer term Jihadist links whilst the French authorities were still talking about rapid radicalisation.
I'll post at some point on how there is an interesting pattern of released responses by the authorities perhaps appearing when a one person spectacular occurs.
Ok. To be honest this just makes me more eager to wait about five or ten hours before even thinking about these things as they happen - as long as I am lucky enough to be not on the spot.
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.
That ethnic is no guarantee. If you had said that in the UK. I could probably buy it 99%, in Germany that 99% could be 90% or 80%.
You have a situation whereby eyewitnesses reported multiple attackers yet visual evidence of one, with an incident or incidents in a confined space.
8 dead people, white German, Turkish maybe? Random, again no info.
You only have to look at our truck driving murderer in Nice as a fine example of the confusion and perhaps deliberate bullshit. Loner, mental health issues, possibly bisexual, randomer ..now, accomplices, months of planning. I posted on here a short time after the attack that a person of remarkably similar name was thrown up by 3rd party agencies as having longer term Jihadist links whilst the French authorities were still talking about rapid radicalisation.
I'll post at some point on how there is an interesting pattern of released responses by the authorities perhaps appearing when a one person spectacular occurs.
I'm beginning to wonder if that involved an inside job in the police. How he was allowed into the area if the reports are to be believed makes Inspector Cleaseau look like an old pro.
I think I can see a new opportunity for political betting. Just need someone to offer odds on which bunch of terrorist nutters responsible for attack.....
I once had a fine example how perhaps betting on initial reaction could certainly lead you up the wrong tree in Belfast.
A killing had occurred of a well known figure. The response from said figure's associates was going to be was swift retaliation against the other side with talk of a particular group having done it. Shortly after the incident occurred, someone called me about the incident and gave the the reported description of the attacker.
They told me that they could hear the proverbial light switch in my head click on as it dawned on me who had been the gunman.
That ethnic is no guarantee. If you had said that in the UK. I could probably buy it 99%, in Germany that 99% could be 90% or 80%.
You have a situation whereby eyewitnesses reported multiple attackers yet visual evidence of one, with an incident or incidents in a confined space.
8 dead people, white German, Turkish maybe? Random, again no info.
You only have to look at our truck driving murderer in Nice as a fine example of the confusion and perhaps deliberate bullshit. Loner, mental health issues, possibly bisexual, randomer ..now, accomplices, months of planning. I posted on here a short time after the attack that a person of remarkably similar name was thrown up by 3rd party agencies as having longer term Jihadist links whilst the French authorities were still talking about rapid radicalisation.
I'll post at some point on how there is an interesting pattern of released responses by the authorities perhaps appearing when a one person spectacular occurs.
Yes, let's just wait. I just hope they hope they find the other shooters before anyone else dies.
I think I can see a new opportunity for political betting. Just need someone to offer odds on which bunch of terrorist nutters responsible for attack.....
Or a spread on the numbers that immediately jump to a conclusion on which bunch of terrorist nutters were responsible for an attack?
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.
Actually, maybe they ought to just get on with managing the incident rather than be expected to give a running commentary.
I agree one hundred per cent. We can wait. That is what we used to do ten years ago.
Quite. The police and security services involved in the incident are not interested in Twitter and the modern 24 hour news cycle. They are doing what they are doing, and will release information at a time when they believe that information to be both correct and useful.
Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president
Well on present polling, Hollande is either fourth or fifth in the first round. So an unlikely contender for the second round.
The first round of polling in French Presidential Elections always stays as a complete mystery to me. It's as if tactical voting is just a complete national no-no.
Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world
Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.
Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.
JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.
Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.
As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.
Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.
But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.
Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.
Isn't it the US equivalent of the 2.8m who might swing it for Trump. People who don't normally vote and who aren't picked up by polling companies.
If Non-College Whites (the American 2.8 million group) increase their turnout and increase their republican support by 5% point each (so 67% vote republican in 2016 vs 62% in 2012 and 62% Turnout vs 57%) then Hilary still wins.
In that situation it would take Black turnout dropping 5% to swing it for Trump.
And that's without considering the Hispanic vote. Even a couple of points swing to the Dems in the above scenario is enough to keep Hilary safe again.
Boris Johnson Verified account @BorisJohnson Deeply shocked & saddened by #Munich shootings. My thoughts are w/ the victims, their loved ones & all #Germany at this time
You have demeaned yourself with this accusation.
Pong can't demean himself. He is already in the sewer.
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.
Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world
Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.
Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.
JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.
Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.
As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.
Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.
But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.
Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.
Isn't it the US equivalent of the 2.8m who might swing it for Trump. People who don't normally vote and who aren't picked up by polling companies.
If Non-College Whites (the American 2.8 million group) increase their turnout and increase their republican support by 5% point each (so 67% vote republican in 2016 vs 62% in 2012 and 62% Turnout vs 57%) then Hilary still wins.
In that situation it would take Black turnout dropping 5% to swing it for Trump.
And that's without considering the Hispanic vote. Even a couple of points swing to the Dems in the above scenario is enough to keep Hilary safe again.
To be honest, I'd expect NCW to swing more than 5% to the GOP and Black turnout to drop more than 5% given Obama is no longer a candidate.
But more than this, my gut has said for a long time that a strong candidate would beat Hilary. Trump is riding this electoral wave very well.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
There are also other things, Jeb Bush and Romney will endorse Gary Johnson next week, they are very unpopular among the public and republicans outside of Utah, so it will probably cost Trump Utah but nothing else and will probably damage Johnson outside of Utah.
If will be highly ironic if the candidate for libertarians ends up being endorsed by the Bush family, whom libertarians hate.
At this stage, any endorsement for Gary Johnson the Libertarian Party Candidate for President, could push him over the 15% threshold and in to the debates at which point: Everything could change.
I speak for myself not for all Libertarians, but to me, part of the core of that philosophy is to judge ever individual on their merits, and not because of any group that they may be part of, race, gender, Sexual Orientation OR FAMILY. Jeb Bush was not amazing, but to me and based on his time as the governor of Florida, he is better than most Politicians, a C+ maybe, that may not sound good but its a lot better than I would give to most other politicians.
As for Mitt Romney, again not exhalant but better than many. and there are people that still listen to him, some will be Mormon, but others will be 'Thinking Republicans' and together they could be the numbers to push Gary Johnson over 15%.
"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
Yet more terrible terrorist attack la, this time in Germany. Will likely boost the Afd there and the more these attacks become almost routine the more likely we end up with a President Trump or Le Pen
President Trump is a "given" IMO.
President Le Pen... France might pull back from the brink, though the French political establishment basically telling the French people to "get used" to terrorist outrages must give her a shout.
She probably wins round 1 in my view, round 2 depends on her opponent
The most interesting contest would be Le Pen vs Sarkozy because he's likely to skirt so close to her that she may be able to outflank him on the left.
Sarkozy wins the middle-class, Le Pen the working class and where the left go would be interesting
At the moment, the left would back Sarkozy in sufficient numbers to see him over the line, though it'd be far closer than 2002. It's far from a done deal either way though. Were he to tack too far right, the left might just sit it out.
Yes and the left loathe Sarkozy far more than they disliked Chirac
"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.
Although Obama is no longer a candidate, there is a strong fear among Black Americans about what a Trump presidency means for them. So that could motivate many to turnout.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...
"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
Was always going to happen this week, the question is if anything in the released material is substantial enough. To me as an IT guy, the more fact of her rogue insecure mail server is enough to disqualify her from office, but the DNC are going to want more than that. If it transpires the Wikileaks leaks came from Russia or China, that might do it.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
There are also other things, Jeb Bush and Romney will endorse Gary Johnson next week, they are very unpopular among the public and republicans outside of Utah, so it will probably cost Trump Utah but nothing else and will probably damage Johnson outside of Utah.
If will be highly ironic if the candidate for libertarians ends up being endorsed by the Bush family, whom libertarians hate.
At this stage, any endorsement for Gary Johnson the Libertarian Party Candidate for President, could push him over the 15% threshold and in to the debates at which point: Everything could change.
I speak for myself not for all Libertarians, but to me, part of the core of that philosophy is to judge ever individual on their merits, and not because of any group that they may be part of, race, gender, Sexual Orientation OR FAMILY. Jeb Bush was not amazing, but to me and based on his time as the governor of Florida, he is better than most Politicians, a C+ maybe, that may not sound good but its a lot better than I would give to most other politicians.
As for Mitt Romney, again not exhalant but better than many. and there are people that still listen to him, some will be Mormon, but others will be 'Thinking Republicans' and together they could be the numbers to push Gary Johnson over 15%.
An endorsement by Romney or Bush would halve Johnson's numbers outside of Utah.
It would destroy Johnson's reputation as a nice man, just like the Cruz-Kasich alliance damaged the credibility and reputation of both.
Getting an endorsement from neo-nazis, Romney, or Bush are terrible for once reputation and should be avoided.
"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.
"Reports of the gunman's behaviour were confused and contradictory.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...
Trump actually leads with Rasmussen today, never mind November. The RCP poll average has been right in the last 3 presidential elections so that will be vital to watch. Hillary led by about 2% before Trump's speech
Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world
Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.
Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.
JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.
Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.
As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.
Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.
But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.
Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.
Isn't it the US equivalent of the 2.8m who might swing it for Trump. People who don't normally vote and who aren't picked up by polling companies.
If Non-College Whites (the American 2.8 million group) increase their turnout and increase their republican support by 5% point each (so 67% vote republican in 2016 vs 62% in 2012 and 62% Turnout vs 57%) then Hilary still wins.
In that situation it would take Black turnout dropping 5% to swing it for Trump.
And that's without considering the Hispanic vote. Even a couple of points swing to the Dems in the above scenario is enough to keep Hilary safe again.
The Washington Post is a democratic party newspaper since it's foundation I think, so no news there, Daily Mirror endorsing Labour in an election level kind of news.
But on the VP level.
Hillary is in Florida, today and tomorrow.
Elizabeth Warren is in Florida, today and tomorrow.
Tim Kaine was in Boston all day today.
I don't think Kaine should be that high on the betting sites.
In this big swinging microchip battle I'm cheering on Jeff Bezos over Peter Thiel. At least Bezos is just a techie oddball who thinks his company should be run as Darwinian survival of the fittest. Thiel believes everything else should be run that way too, without democracy and preferably on floating seasteads in the Pacific away from meddling government.
Yet more terrible terrorist attack la, this time in Germany. Will likely boost the Afd there and the more these attacks become almost routine the more likely we end up with a President Trump or Le Pen
President Trump is a "given" IMO.
President Le Pen... France might pull back from the brink, though the French political establishment basically telling the French people to "get used" to terrorist outrages must give her a shout.
She probably wins round 1 in my view, round 2 depends on her opponent
The most interesting contest would be Le Pen vs Sarkozy because he's likely to skirt so close to her that she may be able to outflank him on the left.
Sarkozy wins the middle-class, Le Pen the working class and where the left go would be interesting
At the moment, the left would back Sarkozy in sufficient numbers to see him over the line, though it'd be far closer than 2002. It's far from a done deal either way though. Were he to tack too far right, the left might just sit it out.
Yes and the left loathe Sarkozy far more than they disliked Chirac
Juppe is more likely to be the Gaullist candidate
He has to get through the centre right primary first and the party base will comprise most of the voters and they may prefer Sarkozy's tough rhetoric following recent terror attacks
'Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president '
Exactly, the current collection of left / right politicians isn't working,time to try a new face,it couldn't be worse,anti establishment etc.
Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president
The FN are also a party that is predominantly drawing support based on national issues. Like UKIP, I think they are seen as a bit irrelevant when it comes to local elections. So their natural base of supporters don't turn out, but they will for a presidential. Additionally, MLP is a strong candidate being held back by her party's reputation. She's very serious, not at all like Trump, and she herself doesn't say things THAT extreme. I don't think it will be enough to see her over the line in 2017, but she's setting herself up nicely for 2022.
Indeed she is a stronger candidate than her father
Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president
Well on present polling, Hollande is either fourth or fifth in the first round. So an unlikely contender for the second round.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...
Trump actually leads with Rasmussen today, never mind November. The RCP poll average has been right in the last 3 presidential elections so that will be vital to watch. Hillary led by about 2% before Trump's speech
Rasmussen, lol. Are you a platinum member so can view their crosstabs?
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.
I cannot find a express type route from Bilbao to Lisbon. It is probably doable for a real railway enthusiast, but Herself ain't one. I think I must resign myself to the fact that I need to persuade her that an overnight stop in Irun, but that is a daunting prospect.
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.
The overall service provided by Europe's rail network seems to have peaked 30-40 years ago before we had high-speed trains - http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/trains/
Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president
Well on present polling, Hollande is either fourth or fifth in the first round. So an unlikely contender for the second round.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...
Trump actually leads with Rasmussen today, never mind November. The RCP poll average has been right in the last 3 presidential elections so that will be vital to watch. Hillary led by about 2% before Trump's speech
Rasmussen, lol. Are you a platinum member so can view their crosstabs?
Nonetheless, even looking beyond Rasmussen Hillary's present lead in the RCP poll average is less than Obama won by in 2012 and 2008
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
There are also other things, Jeb Bush and Romney will endorse Gary Johnson next week, they are very unpopular among the public and republicans outside of Utah, so it will probably cost Trump Utah but nothing else and will probably damage Johnson outside of Utah.
If will be highly ironic if the candidate for libertarians ends up being endorsed by the Bush family, whom libertarians hate.
At this stage, any endorsement for Gary Johnson the Libertarian Party Candidate for President, could push him over the 15% threshold and in to the debates at which point: Everything could change.
I speak for myself not for all Libertarians, but to me, part of the core of that philosophy is to judge ever individual on their merits, and not because of any group that they may be part of, race, gender, Sexual Orientation OR FAMILY. Jeb Bush was not amazing, but to me and based on his time as the governor of Florida, he is better than most Politicians, a C+ maybe, that may not sound good but its a lot better than I would give to most other politicians.
As for Mitt Romney, again not exhalant but better than many. and there are people that still listen to him, some will be Mormon, but others will be 'Thinking Republicans' and together they could be the numbers to push Gary Johnson over 15%.
An endorsement by Romney or Bush would halve Johnson's numbers outside of Utah.
It would destroy Johnson's reputation as a nice man, just like the Cruz-Kasich alliance damaged the credibility and reputation of both.
Getting an endorsement from neo-nazis, Romney, or Bush are terrible for once reputation and should be avoided.
Well we will see next week if you prediction comes true.
I don't know what ether of them will do, I think it is more likely that Romney will than Bush, but it's possible that both will just say guarded but positive things about him.
Ether way, Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party will get more publicity, and at the moment that's likely to be a good thing for them!
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.
I cannot find a express type route from Bilbao to Lisbon. It is probably doable for a real railway enthusiast, but Herself ain't one. I think I must resign myself to the fact that I need to persuade her that an overnight stop in Irun, but that is a daunting prospect.
Oh well, unfortunately it's looking like a rather long journey, or one of those new-fangled flying machine thingys.
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?
And the Polish rapist, and and and. Frankly I'm finding myself growing very sceptical about the conduct of the police. They're not helping by suppressing stuff.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?
The Bluewater story is one of those stories gets whipped up and myths develop. If I recall at the time, the reason for the delay from the attack to the police issuing a statement was that the victim was in no fit state to be interviewed.
The Kent constabulary only confirmed the reported incident last month, when the Messenger asked for information after an exclusive tip-off.
For that, they came in for a barrage of abuse on social media, with people questioning why details of such a serious assault were not made public immediately.
Police confirmed that none of those arrested were Muslim, after rumours circulated online.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
Only if you believe the polls. Given all the polling disasters that have occurred over the past year or so, that's a big ask.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...
Trump actually leads with Rasmussen today, never mind November. The RCP poll average has been right in the last 3 presidential elections so that will be vital to watch. Hillary led by about 2% before Trump's speech
Rasmussen, lol. Are you a platinum member so can view their crosstabs?
Nonetheless, even looking beyond Rasmussen Hillary's present lead in the RCP poll average is less than Obama won by in 2012 and 2008
People calm down, as a proven expert of american politics I can tell you to wait until early August, we will have a clear picture of the dynamics of the race that will hold at least until the debates.
Any nominee has to do the following in order to win.
A. Pick a VP that the party likes. B. Get a lead after the conventions. C. Win the debates.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.
Have fun
It was fun today.
Was great fun today, this aftenoon felt like everyone was shouting no ball every time Amir bowled
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.
I cannot find a express type route from Bilbao to Lisbon. It is probably doable for a real railway enthusiast, but Herself ain't one. I think I must resign myself to the fact that I need to persuade her that an overnight stop in Irun, but that is a daunting prospect.
There'll be a direct train from Bilbao to Madrid, then you can get another from there to Lisbon. A bit of a schlep though.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?
The Bluewater story is one of those stories gets whipped up and myths develop. If I recall at the time, the reason for the delay from the attack to the police issuing a statement was that the victim was in no fit state to be interviewed.
The Kent constabulary only confirmed the reported incident last month, when the Messenger asked for information after an exclusive tip-off.
For that, they came in for a barrage of abuse on social media, with people questioning why details of such a serious assault were not made public immediately.
Police confirmed that none of those arrested were Muslim, after rumours circulated online.
Thanks, that link adds a lot more detail, including things both said and not said about the suspects.
Still don't understand why an abduction from a bus station didn't result in CCTV being all over the evening news that night though, while memories were fresh about things like what clothes people were wearing.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.
What happened at Marham was not a robbery attempt.
It was an attempt to attack.
As regards Hilary's VP choice, didn't I hear somewhere she was looking at a military man?
I'm hearing about Charlie Crist, he is present at her Florida rally right now with lots of applause.
He is a former Florida governor, originally a republican until defeated by Rubio in the primary for the Senate in 2010, he then ran as an independent and as a democrat.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.
Have fun
It was fun today.
Was great fun today, this aftenoon felt like everyone was shouting no ball every time Amir bowled
LOL!
Wish I was there, although to be fair I think I was the only PBer to attend the reciprocal series last winter, all three Tests
Dang, I hope that isn't symptomatic of a wider trend. I can't/won't fly anymore but I have almost convinced Herself that taking the overnight train to Lisbon would be a great way to visit the Portuguese Llamas.
Pleased I used the service to Lisbon a few months ago now that it's closing. It wasn't very busy.
So that route is going? Bugger! I suppose I better start prepping her for an overnight stop in France (can't see that going down too well). The ideal would be a sea voyage from the UK to Lisbon (ideal except I would probably spend my entire time spewing up), but I can't find anyone who offers that.
You can still get a ferry from Portsmouth to Bilbao, then drive or get the train to Lisbon from there.
I cannot find a express type route from Bilbao to Lisbon. It is probably doable for a real railway enthusiast, but Herself ain't one. I think I must resign myself to the fact that I need to persuade her that an overnight stop in Irun, but that is a daunting prospect.
According to seat61 it also works via Barcelona and Madrid, always worth a visit:
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.
Have fun
It was fun today.
Was great fun today, this aftenoon felt like everyone was shouting no ball every time Amir bowled
LOL!
Wish I was there, although to be fair I think I was the only PBer to attend the reciprocal series last winter, all three Tests
I'm not sure I could cope with a Test Match in the UAE.
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?
The Bluewater story is one of those stories gets whipped up and myths develop. If I recall at the time, the reason for the delay from the attack to the police issuing a statement was that the victim was in no fit state to be interviewed.
The Kent constabulary only confirmed the reported incident last month, when the Messenger asked for information after an exclusive tip-off.
For that, they came in for a barrage of abuse on social media, with people questioning why details of such a serious assault were not made public immediately.
Police confirmed that none of those arrested were Muslim, after rumours circulated online.
Thanks, that link adds a lot more detail, including things both said and not said about the suspects.
Still don't understand why an abduction from a bus station didn't result in CCTV being all over the evening news that night though, while memories were fresh about things like what clothes people were wearing.
The other reason is that the CPS and the courts are concerned about potential jury contamination.
Social media, especially Facebook and Twitter is making it difficult to find an entirely untainted jury at first go when it goes to Crown Court for the most serious crimes.
You might now know the defendant directly, but turns you have a few mutual friends on Facebook, or you might like a page where the alleged crime had been discussed which was sub judice.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
Ooh, are you going Eagles? Which day? I'm going tomorrow. Couldnt be set up any better, could it - Root and Woakes to start the day, Stokes and Bairstow yet to come.
Went today, have tickets for days 2 to 4 as well.
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
All four days? What luxury. If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
I'll be the one Pakistani heritage chap who will be wearing an England shirt.
Have fun
It was fun today.
Was great fun today, this aftenoon felt like everyone was shouting no ball every time Amir bowled
LOL!
Wish I was there, although to be fair I think I was the only PBer to attend the reciprocal series last winter, all three Tests
I'm not sure I could cope with a Test Match in the UAE.
No problems. There were only about 500 people there, and the supporters quickly segregated themselves sorted themselves out by ticket price/bar availability. The Pakistani fans sitting next to the Barmy Army in the £20 seats drinking beer were mostly British guys on holiday anyway!
Comments
I think I can see a new opportunity for political betting. Just need someone to offer odds on which bunch of terrorist nutters responsible for attack.....
You have a situation whereby eyewitnesses reported multiple attackers yet visual evidence of one, with an incident or incidents in a confined space.
8 dead people, white German, Turkish maybe? Random, again no info.
You only have to look at our truck driving murderer in Nice as a fine example of the confusion and perhaps deliberate bullshit. Loner, mental health issues, possibly bisexual, randomer ..now, accomplices, months of planning. I posted on here a short time after the attack that a person of remarkably similar name was thrown up by 3rd party agencies as having longer term Jihadist links whilst the French authorities were still talking about rapid radicalisation.
I'll post at some point on how there is an interesting pattern of released responses by the authorities perhaps appearing when a one person spectacular occurs.
A killing had occurred of a well known figure. The response from said figure's associates was going to be was swift retaliation against the other side with talk of a particular group having done it. Shortly after the incident occurred, someone called me about the incident and gave the the reported description of the attacker.
They told me that they could hear the proverbial light switch in my head click on as it dawned on me who had been the gunman.
It wasn't the other side at all.
They still don't know if its the attacker..or one of a number
If Non-College Whites (the American 2.8 million group) increase their turnout and increase their republican support by 5% point each (so 67% vote republican in 2016 vs 62% in 2012 and 62% Turnout vs 57%) then Hilary still wins.
In that situation it would take Black turnout dropping 5% to swing it for Trump.
And that's without considering the Hispanic vote. Even a couple of points swing to the Dems in the above scenario is enough to keep Hilary safe again.
But more than this, my gut has said for a long time that a strong candidate would beat Hilary. Trump is riding this electoral wave very well.
I speak for myself not for all Libertarians, but to me, part of the core of that philosophy is to judge ever individual on their merits, and not because of any group that they may be part of, race, gender, Sexual Orientation OR FAMILY. Jeb Bush was not amazing, but to me and based on his time as the governor of Florida, he is better than most Politicians, a C+ maybe, that may not sound good but its a lot better than I would give to most other politicians.
As for Mitt Romney, again not exhalant but better than many. and there are people that still listen to him, some will be Mormon, but others will be 'Thinking Republicans' and together they could be the numbers to push Gary Johnson over 15%.
A Muslim woman told CNN that she heard the gunman yell: "Allahu Akbar," yet video footage showed a gunman ranting against foreigners and Turks, suggesting a Neo Nazi attack."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/22/shots-fired-at-munich-shopping-centre/
See: https://t.co/kpFxYDoNyX
http://news.sky.com/story/i-am-german-munich-gunman-shouts-to-witness-10509927
Westminster North: Smith 49 Corbyn 22
Richmond Park: Smith
Lancaster and Fleetwood: Corbyn 71 Smith 30
Liverpool West Derby: Corbyn 59 Smith 47
Reigate: Corbyn 15 Smith 9
Clwyd West: Corbyn unanimously
Although Obama is no longer a candidate, there is a strong fear among Black Americans about what a Trump presidency means for them. So that could motivate many to turnout.
My guess is that polls and the betting (and ARSE) will show Hillary winning reasonably comfortably right up until around 3am (UK time) on 9th November when suddenly it'll be apparent she's lost...
#Munich eyewitness says her 8-year-old son saw a "man loading his gun" in the bathroom https://t.co/sfUly5nvit https://t.co/t2GZ1OoUPd
It would destroy Johnson's reputation as a nice man, just like the Cruz-Kasich alliance damaged the credibility and reputation of both.
Getting an endorsement from neo-nazis, Romney, or Bush are terrible for once reputation and should be avoided.
But on the VP level.
Hillary is in Florida, today and tomorrow.
Elizabeth Warren is in Florida, today and tomorrow.
Tim Kaine was in Boston all day today.
I don't think Kaine should be that high on the betting sites.
Sune Engel Rasmussen @SuneEngel
Nice: Mosques in Munich open all night for everyone stuck because of road blocks https://twitter.com/izmedien/status/756581540663005184 …
10:19 PM - 22 Jul 2016
Absolute hero and legend
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-catalonia-idUSKCN10220I?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5792918504d30126287a3603&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
Decent work by the guy telling the gunman that he's a wanker.
Joe Root is a god, ditto Alastair Cook, I do worry that they might develop serious back troubles soon, they are carrying the England top order at the moment.
Glad I've got tickets to this match
I don't know what ether of them will do, I think it is more likely that Romney will than Bush, but it's possible that both will just say guarded but positive things about him.
Ether way, Gary Johnson and the Libertarian Party will get more publicity, and at the moment that's likely to be a good thing for them!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3702512/Who-did-try-knife-RAF-man-Alan-Partridge-RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-asks-police-increasingly-trying-hide-identity-perpetrators-crime.html
Have there been detailed descriptions of the suspects circulated, as might be expected? Is there a genuine similarity between police treatment of other cases in Europe? What happened at Bluewater last month, was there really a gang-rape and did the police fail to do their duty?
The sole advantage for a Yorkshireman to be a member of Lancashire CCC
If you see a fella tomorrow trying to ward off cranial sunburn by wearing an ill-advised baseball cap advertising Badger ales, that'll be me.
The Kent constabulary only confirmed the reported incident last month, when the Messenger asked for information after an exclusive tip-off.
For that, they came in for a barrage of abuse on social media, with people questioning why details of such a serious assault were not made public immediately.
Police confirmed that none of those arrested were Muslim, after rumours circulated online.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/news/four-month-bail-for-gang-rape-95282/
Any nominee has to do the following in order to win.
A. Pick a VP that the party likes.
B. Get a lead after the conventions.
C. Win the debates.
Trump has done A, lets wait and see about B.
It was an attempt to attack.
As regards Hilary's VP choice, didn't I hear somewhere she was looking at a military man?
Was great fun today, this aftenoon felt like everyone was shouting no ball every time Amir bowled
Still don't understand why an abduction from a bus station didn't result in CCTV being all over the evening news that night though, while memories were fresh about things like what clothes people were wearing.
Curiously Austrian security types are on their way to Munich. On the face of it, they don't need to be there right now.
Good to see you liked Star Trek Beyond Parody
He is a former Florida governor, originally a republican until defeated by Rubio in the primary for the Senate in 2010, he then ran as an independent and as a democrat.
Wish I was there, although to be fair I think I was the only PBer to attend the reciprocal series last winter, all three Tests
http://www.seat61.com/Portugal.htm#via Madrid
Social media, especially Facebook and Twitter is making it difficult to find an entirely untainted jury at first go when it goes to Crown Court for the most serious crimes.
You might now know the defendant directly, but turns you have a few mutual friends on Facebook, or you might like a page where the alleged crime had been discussed which was sub judice.
The 20/20 matches, on the other hand...