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  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is very pale and beardless.

    I was thinking that from stills of him. Also apparently firing in the air to scatter the crowd (rather than at them).

    Munich is after all where the Beer Hall Putsch happened.
    Yokel gives the impression he knows the ethnicity (well, he says the Germans know) - come on Yokel let us know.

    Incidentally, the lack of beard means nothing. If they were islamists expecting to die they could well shave off beards .... and I think I recall chest hair??????

    Certainly we know that happened prior to 9/11 attacks for certain and I seem to recall that the case in others.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet more terrible terrorist attack la, this time in Germany. Will likely boost the Afd there and the more these attacks become almost routine the more likely we end up with a President Trump or Le Pen

    That's what I fear. It feels like as a world we are going backwards not forwards.
    The next year or two will be a rollercoaster
    A rollercoaster of hell, it seems.
    Kudos to our security services for preventing any mass attacks since 2005.
    I feel like we are so incredibly lucky and blessed to have not had any mass attacks for more than a decade. I've heard that May apparently ensured funding for security services was protected from austerity which I 100% support.
    It's really not luck that there's been nothing major in the UK for eleven years. It's down to a whole load of very hard work by thousands of normally invisible people at MI5, MI6, GCHQ, various foreign agencies, police and informers at home. They know they will be forever invisible, but we collectively owe them a great deal.
    When they retire they should be on the honours list. They are truly brilliant.
    I hope we have not jinxed it now! With recent events, perhaps funding will be increased for counter-terrorism.
    With May as PM, I wouldn't be surprised if this happened.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MaxPB said:

    How the fuck did the German police let these guys escape from the mall?

    At least the French police know how to bring these situations to an end, even if their intelligence is rubbish to begin with.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579
    nunu said:
    The bloke they showed on Sky looked white - perhaps not a coincidence about the date?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    So many conflicting reports. From the Mirror link the German police seem to think it's a terror attack.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2016
    MaxPB said:

    How the fuck did the German police let these guys escape from the mall?

    Do we routinely have armed police on all pedestrian and vehicular shopping centre exits in the UK?
  • Floater said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is very pale and beardless.

    I was thinking that from stills of him. Also apparently firing in the air to scatter the crowd (rather than at them).

    Munich is after all where the Beer Hall Putsch happened.
    Yokel gives the impression he knows the ethnicity (well, he says the Germans know) - come on Yokel let us know.

    Incidentally, the lack of beard means nothing. If they were islamists expecting to die they could well shave off beards .... and I think I recall chest hair??????

    Certainly we know that happened prior to 9/11 attacks for certain and I seem to recall that the case in others.

    If they are far right loons shooting foreigners that would account for why one of them appeared to shoot into the air outside McDonalds to scatter the crowd rather just mow them down.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited July 2016

    So many conflicting reports. From the Mirror link the German police seem to think it's a terror attack.

    That's not necessarily conflicting.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730
    There is absolutely no harm in waiting a bit before drawing judgement about developing news. It is what we all used to do 10 years ago.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Looks like it is Anders Behring Breivik first anniversary. Sky reporting.

    Now we have two kinds of nutters.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2016

    So many conflicting reports. From the Mirror link the German police seem to think it's a terror attack.

    That's not neccessarily conflicting.
    Hmmm, true. I guess these days when I hear 'terror attack' I've often assumed it's IS (and most of the time that's sadly been the care).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,710
    nunu said:
    Can we assume this guy has a 2:2?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MaxPB said:

    How the fuck did the German police let these guys escape from the mall?

    What do you think they should do ? Predict these events and have armed guards everywhere.

    In fact, with IS type of terror, had they not had this jihad type mentality, many of them could have escaped too.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    Looks like it is Anders Behring Breivik first anniversary. Sky reporting.

    Now we have two kinds of nutters.

    Fifth anniversary
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    nunu said:
    Can we assume this guy has a 2:2?
    Malcolm's bed is tiny.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Looks like it is Anders Behring Breivik first anniversary. Sky reporting.

    Now we have two kinds of nutters.

    Fifth anniversary
    Oh yes ! Time flies.
  • Today in history 1456 , victory against Mehmet II (he who overran Constantinople) by the Kingdom of Hungary in the Battle of Belgrade. Still celebrated as a memorial day in Hungary to this day.

    Wikipedia:

    The Siege of Belgrade, or Battle of Belgrade or Siege of Nándorfehérvár. occurred from July 4–22, 1456. After the fall of Constantinople in 1453, the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II rallied his resources in order to subjugate the Kingdom of Hungary. His immediate objective was the border fort of the town of Belgrade (in old Hungarian Nándorfehérvár). John Hunyadi, the Voivode of Transylvania, who had fought many battles against the Turks in the previous two decades, prepared the defenses of the fortress.

    The Pope celebrated the victory as well, as he previously ordered all Catholic kingdoms to pray for the victory of the defenders of Belgrade. This led to the noon bell ritual that is still undertaken in Catholic and old Protestant churches nowadays. The day of the victory, 22 July, has been a national memorial day in Hungary ever since.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,649

    Today in history 1456 , victory against Mehmet II (he who overran Constantinople) by the Kingdom of Hungary in the Battle of Belgrade. Still celebrated as a memorial day in Hungary to this day.

    Wikipedia:

    The Siege of Belgrade, or Battle of Belgrade or Siege of Nándorfehérvár. occurred from July 4–22, 1456. After the fall of Constantinople in 1453, the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II rallied his resources in order to subjugate the Kingdom of Hungary. His immediate objective was the border fort of the town of Belgrade (in old Hungarian Nándorfehérvár). John Hunyadi, the Voivode of Transylvania, who had fought many battles against the Turks in the previous two decades, prepared the defenses of the fortress.

    The Pope celebrated the victory as well, as he previously ordered all Catholic kingdoms to pray for the victory of the defenders of Belgrade. This led to the noon bell ritual that is still undertaken in Catholic and old Protestant churches nowadays. The day of the victory, 22 July, has been a national memorial day in Hungary ever since.

    1209 Beziers. They could be Cathar terrorists.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    surbiton said:

    Looks like it is Anders Behring Breivik first anniversary. Sky reporting.

    Now we have two kinds of nutters.

    Fifth anniversary
    Oh yes ! Time flies.
    It certainly does...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Y0kel said:

    The police in Munich are worked their nuts off to achieve a cordon lock, and they may well have succeeded after the McDonalds shooting.

    If they have, this particular incident will be over in a few hours. If not, its going to be a real response problem.

    What we haven't heard yet is any evidence of house visits elsewhere. even in the midst of an incident a single locale, ideally you'd want to be going through your list of whoever's and seeing if they are at home.

    The police know the ethnic origin already.

    How come you know this already ? Where do you get your information from ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,702
    Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.

    Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.

    In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.

    I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.

    Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    One gunman dead !
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited July 2016
    China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.

    I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pale skin of the gunmen does not mean they could not be IS. Many Syrians, Afghans can be white, blond and with blue eyes !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,945
    surbiton said:

    One gunman dead !

    Good. Let's hope they get the other two.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,702
    nunu said:
    I don't see a straitjacket, so it seems unlikely.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,702
    MaxPB said:

    surbiton said:

    One gunman dead !

    Good. Let's hope they get the other two.
    I misread that as "Let's hope he stays that way"...
  • surbiton said:

    Pale skin of the gunmen does not mean they could not be IS. Many Syrians, Afghans can be white, blond and with blue eyes !

    Jihadis usually shout 'Alluah Akbar' rather than 'Fucking Foreigners' as they go about their rampage though.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    nunu said:
    Can we assume this guy has a 2:2?
    Classy light fitting
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,301
    surbiton said:

    Y0kel said:

    The police in Munich are worked their nuts off to achieve a cordon lock, and they may well have succeeded after the McDonalds shooting.

    If they have, this particular incident will be over in a few hours. If not, its going to be a real response problem.

    What we haven't heard yet is any evidence of house visits elsewhere. even in the midst of an incident a single locale, ideally you'd want to be going through your list of whoever's and seeing if they are at home.

    The police know the ethnic origin already.

    How come you know this already ? Where do you get your information from ?
    I believe from previous international military or security events that Yokel is connected with intelligence or security services. He had proved remarkably accurate in his analysis of such events in the past.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,229
    rcs1000 said:

    Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.

    Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.

    In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.

    I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.

    Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.

    Does it? Or does it just mean that there are more seats with Communist-socialist transfers see the Reds in ahead of anyone on the centre or right, than FN strongholds.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,702

    surbiton said:

    Pale skin of the gunmen does not mean they could not be IS. Many Syrians, Afghans can be white, blond and with blue eyes !

    Jihadis usually shout 'Alluah Akbar' rather than 'Fucking Foreigners' as they go about their rampage though.
    Please don't make me laugh when I'm drinking a glass of wine.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    nunu said:
    Or was it 'Germany first'? :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Apparently the shopping centre is built on the site of the 1972 Olympics.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    surbiton said:

    Y0kel said:

    The police in Munich are worked their nuts off to achieve a cordon lock, and they may well have succeeded after the McDonalds shooting.

    If they have, this particular incident will be over in a few hours. If not, its going to be a real response problem.

    What we haven't heard yet is any evidence of house visits elsewhere. even in the midst of an incident a single locale, ideally you'd want to be going through your list of whoever's and seeing if they are at home.

    The police know the ethnic origin already.

    How come you know this already ? Where do you get your information from ?
    I believe from previous international military or security events that Yokel is connected with intelligence or security services. He had proved remarkably accurate in his analysis of such events in the past.
    One of the few posters whose posts are always worth reading
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,702

    rcs1000 said:

    Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.

    Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.

    In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.

    I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.

    Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.

    Does it? Or does it just mean that there are more seats with Communist-socialist transfers see the Reds in ahead of anyone on the centre or right, than FN strongholds.
    There were nine Communist - FN run offs, albeit all with relatively small LR votes to distribute. In every case, the Communists won.

    Put another way: the Les Republicains, and PS votes went up in the second rounds markedly. The FN share - on a constituency level - barely budged anywhere.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,301

    China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.

    I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.

    I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,684
    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    Pale skin of the gunmen does not mean they could not be IS. Many Syrians, Afghans can be white, blond and with blue eyes !

    Jihadis usually shout 'Alluah Akbar' rather than 'Fucking Foreigners' as they go about their rampage though.
    Please don't make me laugh when I'm drinking a glass of wine.
    Very risky for the keyboard!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the shopping centre is built on the site of the 1972 Olympics.

    That's not near the city centre, from memory. I think it's going out towards the airport. Maybe the equivalent of somewhere like East Finchley or Muswell Hill.

  • Sky news - german police - no indication of Islamist terror
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Six now confirmed dead
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    surbiton said:

    Y0kel said:

    The police in Munich are worked their nuts off to achieve a cordon lock, and they may well have succeeded after the McDonalds shooting.

    If they have, this particular incident will be over in a few hours. If not, its going to be a real response problem.

    What we haven't heard yet is any evidence of house visits elsewhere. even in the midst of an incident a single locale, ideally you'd want to be going through your list of whoever's and seeing if they are at home.

    The police know the ethnic origin already.

    How come you know this already ? Where do you get your information from ?
    Because he speaks German and understands the immediate actions taken at all these events
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    AndyJS said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.

    I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.
    I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,523
    edited July 2016
    Several reports have the gunmen carrying 'long rifles', a slightly odd description of AKs/ARs? All the current pics show the shooters with handguns, not your usual hardware for an ISIS inspired attack.

    Fwiw Breivik's weapons were a hunting rifle & handgun.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Sky news - german police - no indication of Islamist terror

    I read somewhere that IS "telegram" video of the attack was aired. However, I have not heard this since.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:
    Can we assume this guy has a 2:2?
    Why? He's making a good point about the devaluation of degrees.


    He voted Leave and Yes.
  • Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.

    I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.
    I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.
    Munich is far rights historical home. Where do you think Hitler and Co. started out and had his attempted coup in the 20s?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.

    I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.

    I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.
    Isn't really like Brevik at all. Brevik was making a political "point" in his choice of targets, he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.

    I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.
    I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.
    Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.

    I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.

    I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.
    .....he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.
    Was this shooter?
  • <

    China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.

    I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.

    I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.
    Isn't really like Brevik at all. Brevik was making a political "point" in his choice of targets, he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.
    Judging by the death and injury toll (5 dead, double figures injured) and what Ive seen about it they were shooting foreigners rather than indiscriminately which would have killed and injured more with three gunmen.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.

    I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.
    I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.
    Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.

    IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,523
    edited July 2016

    China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.

    I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.

    I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.
    Isn't really like Brevik at all. Brevik was making a political "point" in his choice of targets, he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.
    He set off a bomb in a fairly busy area.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    This is where you need CCTV cameras.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,301

    China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.

    I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.

    I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.
    Isn't really like Brevik at all. Brevik was making a political "point" in his choice of targets, he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.
    We have no idea who the victims are so far in this case so it isn't really possible to claim it was indiscriminate.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently the shopping centre is built on the site of the 1972 Olympics.

    That's not near the city centre, from memory. I think it's going out towards the airport. Maybe the equivalent of somewhere like East Finchley or Muswell Hill.

    Very near the site of the massacre, according to Telegraph maps...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    This gunman apparently was on benefits and appears to have a limp.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579
    surbiton said:

    This gunman apparently was on benefits and appears to have a limp.

    Blimey.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like Trump has deleted his tweet which concluded Islamists were responsible.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,702

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.

    I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.
    I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.
    Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.

    IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.

    With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Jeremy Corbyn MP ✔@jeremycorbyn

    Shocking news from Munich - my thoughts are with the people of the city at this time.

  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Well someone is trouble, GSG9 have turned up in Munich.

    Those boys are rather good.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    GSG 9 is an elite German counter-terrorism, hostage rescue and special operations police unit. - 'Those boys are rather good.' Indeed.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    By the way the Daily Mirror report is potentially not as it perhaps looks. Lack of clarity on that and it should not quite yet be given full credence.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,702
    Y0kel said:

    Well someone is trouble, GSG9 have turned up in Munich.

    Those boys are rather good.

    They whupped me at counterstrike.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Y0kel said:

    Well someone is trouble, GSG9 have turned up in Munich.

    Those boys are rather good.

    Are they the German SAS?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    AndyJS said:

    Y0kel said:

    Well someone is trouble, GSG9 have turned up in Munich.

    Those boys are rather good.

    Are they the German SAS?
    No, they are a police active measures unit. They are not military in that sense.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    surbiton said:

    This is where you need CCTV cameras.

    We should use this in our negotiations. We have CCTV by the shitload.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Sky news

    A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.

    A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.

    There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    O/T:

    "End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
    Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."

    http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
    http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.

    I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.
    I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.
    Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.

    IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.

    With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.

    I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.
    I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.
    Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.

    IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.

    With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.
    Lol. Why are u so against Scot Nat's?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2016
    PONG
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Conflicting news - not unusual as eyewitnesses are often confused.

    Muslim eyewitness heard "Allahu Akbar"
    A Muslim woman, named by CNN as Lauretta, told the channel she heard the gunmen shout "Allahu Akhar" as they shot children.

    I know this because I am a Muslim.

    I saw the shooting of children, who were sitting down to eat. They could not run.

  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited July 2016
    Pong said:


    Boris Johnson Verified account 
    @BorisJohnson
    Deeply shocked & saddened by #Munich shootings. My thoughts are w/ the victims, their loved ones & all #Germany at this time

    You have demeaned yourself with this accusation.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    tlg86 said:

    surbiton said:

    This gunman apparently was on benefits and appears to have a limp.

    Blimey.
    Muslims taking his benefits?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    rcs1000 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Well someone is trouble, GSG9 have turned up in Munich.

    Those boys are rather good.

    They whupped me at counterstrike.
    They were probably 15 or 16 ..... you might be a tad slower on the reflex front ;-)
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited July 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Y0kel said:

    Well someone is trouble, GSG9 have turned up in Munich.

    Those boys are rather good.

    Are they the German SAS?
    Probably more like the UKs SO19 I think, Continental police tend to be slightly more paramilitary than the UK.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited July 2016
    Pong said:




    Boris Johnson Verified account 
    @BorisJohnson
    Deeply shocked & saddened by #Munich shootings. My thoughts are w/ the victims, their loved ones & all #Germany at this time

    This man is a ridiculous parody of a foreign secretary.

    Oh shut up. Don't type nonsense. Please.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,702
    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.

    I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.
    I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.
    Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.

    IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.

    With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    wasd said:

    It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.

    I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.
    I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.
    Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.

    IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.

    With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.
    Lol. Why are u so against Scot Nat's?
    I've nothing against them, I just enjoy teasing then.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited July 2016
    Moses_ said:

    Sky news

    A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.

    A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.

    There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway

    The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?

    Unclear.

    They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.

    There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.

    The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    edited July 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.

    Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.

    In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.

    I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.

    Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.

    Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet more terrible terrorist attack la, this time in Germany. Will likely boost the Afd there and the more these attacks become almost routine the more likely we end up with a President Trump or Le Pen

    President Trump is a "given" IMO.

    President Le Pen... France might pull back from the brink, though the French political establishment basically telling the French people to "get used" to terrorist outrages must give her a shout.
    She probably wins round 1 in my view, round 2 depends on her opponent
    The most interesting contest would be Le Pen vs Sarkozy because he's likely to skirt so close to her that she may be able to outflank him on the left.
    Sarkozy wins the middle-class, Le Pen the working class and where the left go would be interesting
    At the moment, the left would back Sarkozy in sufficient numbers to see him over the line, though it'd be far closer than 2002. It's far from a done deal either way though. Were he to tack too far right, the left might just sit it out.
    Yes and the left loathe Sarkozy far more than they disliked Chirac
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited July 2016

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world

    Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.

    Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.
    JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.
    Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.

    As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
    Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.

    Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.

    But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.
    Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Y0kel said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sky news

    A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.

    A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.

    There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway

    The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?

    Unclear.

    They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.

    There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.

    The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
    How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    edited July 2016
    Pong said:


    Boris Johnson Verified account 
    @BorisJohnson
    Deeply shocked & saddened by #Munich shootings. My thoughts are w/ the victims, their loved ones & all #Germany at this time

    This man is a ridiculous parody of a foreign secretary.

    No, he is foreign secretary.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,945
    Alistair said:

    JackW said:

    HYUFD said:

    Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world

    Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.

    Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.
    JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.
    Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.

    As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
    Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.

    Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.

    But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.
    Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.
    Isn't it the US equivalent of the 2.8m who might swing it for Trump. People who don't normally vote and who aren't picked up by polling companies.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited July 2016
    @Pong


    Try not to be a moron all of the time.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    nunu said:

    Y0kel said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sky news

    A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.

    A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.

    There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway

    The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?

    Unclear.

    They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.

    There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.

    The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
    How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.
    Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?

    The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730
    Y0kel said:

    nunu said:

    Y0kel said:

    Moses_ said:

    Sky news

    A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.

    A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.

    There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway

    The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?

    Unclear.

    They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.

    There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.

    The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
    How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.
    Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?

    The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.
    As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited July 2016
    What's the norm in the US with their polls?

    I'd fancy Trump to win if we applied UK norms,which almost always understate the right, to their polls .
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    8 dead now
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    chestnut said:

    What's the norm in the US with their polls?

    I'd fancy Trump to win if we applied UK norms,which almost always understate the right, to their polls .

    More boring, i.e. more accurate modelling.
    Since they can do state by state polling they can get a very accurate prediction
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    corporeal said:

    chestnut said:

    What's the norm in the US with their polls?

    I'd fancy Trump to win if we applied UK norms,which almost always understate the right, to their polls .

    More boring, i.e. more accurate modelling.
    Since they can do state by state polling they can get a very accurate prediction
    So they are reliable?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.

    Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.

    In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.

    I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.

    Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.

    Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president
    The FN are also a party that is predominantly drawing support based on national issues. Like UKIP, I think they are seen as a bit irrelevant when it comes to local elections. So their natural base of supporters don't turn out, but they will for a presidential. Additionally, MLP is a strong candidate being held back by her party's reputation. She's very serious, not at all like Trump, and she herself doesn't say things THAT extreme. I don't think it will be enough to see her over the line in 2017, but she's setting herself up nicely for 2022.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Munich police spokesman confirms number of dead is now eight.

    German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere has canceled a stay in the US and is on his way back to Germany.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    JUST IN: Munich death toll has risen to 8, per Munich police: https://t.co/LVXJhFJgwv https://t.co/GzflCF7Sxl
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @HYUFD

    'Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president '


    Exactly, the current collection of left / right politicians isn't working,time to try a new face,it couldn't be worse,anti establishment etc.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    About Trump's chances.

    Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.

    There are also other things, Jeb Bush and Romney will endorse Gary Johnson next week, they are very unpopular among the public and republicans outside of Utah, so it will probably cost Trump Utah but nothing else and will probably damage Johnson outside of Utah.

    If will be highly ironic if the candidate for libertarians ends up being endorsed by the Bush family, whom libertarians hate.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.

    Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.

    In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.

    I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.

    Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.

    Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president
    Well on present polling, Hollande is either fourth or fifth in the first round. So an unlikely contender for the second round.
This discussion has been closed.