politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The nastiness in the LAB leadership race is getting worse a
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Yokel gives the impression he knows the ethnicity (well, he says the Germans know) - come on Yokel let us know.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I was thinking that from stills of him. Also apparently firing in the air to scatter the crowd (rather than at them).wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is very pale and beardless.
Munich is after all where the Beer Hall Putsch happened.
Incidentally, the lack of beard means nothing. If they were islamists expecting to die they could well shave off beards .... and I think I recall chest hair??????
Certainly we know that happened prior to 9/11 attacks for certain and I seem to recall that the case in others.
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With May as PM, I wouldn't be surprised if this happened.RobD said:
I hope we have not jinxed it now! With recent events, perhaps funding will be increased for counter-terrorism.The_Apocalypse said:
When they retire they should be on the honours list. They are truly brilliant.Sandpit said:
It's really not luck that there's been nothing major in the UK for eleven years. It's down to a whole load of very hard work by thousands of normally invisible people at MI5, MI6, GCHQ, various foreign agencies, police and informers at home. They know they will be forever invisible, but we collectively owe them a great deal.The_Apocalypse said:
I feel like we are so incredibly lucky and blessed to have not had any mass attacks for more than a decade. I've heard that May apparently ensured funding for security services was protected from austerity which I 100% support.AndyJS said:
Kudos to our security services for preventing any mass attacks since 2005.The_Apocalypse said:
A rollercoaster of hell, it seems.HYUFD said:
The next year or two will be a rollercoasterThe_Apocalypse said:
That's what I fear. It feels like as a world we are going backwards not forwards.HYUFD said:Yet more terrible terrorist attack la, this time in Germany. Will likely boost the Afd there and the more these attacks become almost routine the more likely we end up with a President Trump or Le Pen
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The bloke they showed on Sky looked white - perhaps not a coincidence about the date?nunu said:0 -
So many conflicting reports. From the Mirror link the German police seem to think it's a terror attack.0
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If they are far right loons shooting foreigners that would account for why one of them appeared to shoot into the air outside McDonalds to scatter the crowd rather just mow them down.Floater said:
Yokel gives the impression he knows the ethnicity (well, he says the Germans know) - come on Yokel let us know.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I was thinking that from stills of him. Also apparently firing in the air to scatter the crowd (rather than at them).wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is very pale and beardless.
Munich is after all where the Beer Hall Putsch happened.
Incidentally, the lack of beard means nothing. If they were islamists expecting to die they could well shave off beards .... and I think I recall chest hair??????
Certainly we know that happened prior to 9/11 attacks for certain and I seem to recall that the case in others.0 -
That's not necessarily conflicting.The_Apocalypse said:So many conflicting reports. From the Mirror link the German police seem to think it's a terror attack.
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There is absolutely no harm in waiting a bit before drawing judgement about developing news. It is what we all used to do 10 years ago.0
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Looks like it is Anders Behring Breivik first anniversary. Sky reporting.
Now we have two kinds of nutters.0 -
Hmmm, true. I guess these days when I hear 'terror attack' I've often assumed it's IS (and most of the time that's sadly been the care).brokenwheel said:
That's not neccessarily conflicting.The_Apocalypse said:So many conflicting reports. From the Mirror link the German police seem to think it's a terror attack.
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Can we assume this guy has a 2:2?nunu said:Is this our Malcolm?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IRk6Q8F3EwQ0 -
What do you think they should do ? Predict these events and have armed guards everywhere.MaxPB said:How the fuck did the German police let these guys escape from the mall?
In fact, with IS type of terror, had they not had this jihad type mentality, many of them could have escaped too.0 -
Malcolm's bed is tiny.Casino_Royale said:
Can we assume this guy has a 2:2?nunu said:Is this our Malcolm?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IRk6Q8F3EwQ0 -
Today in history 1456 , victory against Mehmet II (he who overran Constantinople) by the Kingdom of Hungary in the Battle of Belgrade. Still celebrated as a memorial day in Hungary to this day.
Wikipedia:
The Siege of Belgrade, or Battle of Belgrade or Siege of Nándorfehérvár. occurred from July 4–22, 1456. After the fall of Constantinople in 1453, the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II rallied his resources in order to subjugate the Kingdom of Hungary. His immediate objective was the border fort of the town of Belgrade (in old Hungarian Nándorfehérvár). John Hunyadi, the Voivode of Transylvania, who had fought many battles against the Turks in the previous two decades, prepared the defenses of the fortress.
The Pope celebrated the victory as well, as he previously ordered all Catholic kingdoms to pray for the victory of the defenders of Belgrade. This led to the noon bell ritual that is still undertaken in Catholic and old Protestant churches nowadays. The day of the victory, 22 July, has been a national memorial day in Hungary ever since.0 -
1209 Beziers. They could be Cathar terrorists.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Today in history 1456 , victory against Mehmet II (he who overran Constantinople) by the Kingdom of Hungary in the Battle of Belgrade. Still celebrated as a memorial day in Hungary to this day.
Wikipedia:
The Siege of Belgrade, or Battle of Belgrade or Siege of Nándorfehérvár. occurred from July 4–22, 1456. After the fall of Constantinople in 1453, the Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II rallied his resources in order to subjugate the Kingdom of Hungary. His immediate objective was the border fort of the town of Belgrade (in old Hungarian Nándorfehérvár). John Hunyadi, the Voivode of Transylvania, who had fought many battles against the Turks in the previous two decades, prepared the defenses of the fortress.
The Pope celebrated the victory as well, as he previously ordered all Catholic kingdoms to pray for the victory of the defenders of Belgrade. This led to the noon bell ritual that is still undertaken in Catholic and old Protestant churches nowadays. The day of the victory, 22 July, has been a national memorial day in Hungary ever since.0 -
How come you know this already ? Where do you get your information from ?Y0kel said:The police in Munich are worked their nuts off to achieve a cordon lock, and they may well have succeeded after the McDonalds shooting.
If they have, this particular incident will be over in a few hours. If not, its going to be a real response problem.
What we haven't heard yet is any evidence of house visits elsewhere. even in the midst of an incident a single locale, ideally you'd want to be going through your list of whoever's and seeing if they are at home.
The police know the ethnic origin already.0 -
Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.
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One gunman dead !0
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China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.
I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.0 -
Pale skin of the gunmen does not mean they could not be IS. Many Syrians, Afghans can be white, blond and with blue eyes !0
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I don't see a straitjacket, so it seems unlikely.nunu said:Is this our Malcolm?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IRk6Q8F3EwQ0 -
Jihadis usually shout 'Alluah Akbar' rather than 'Fucking Foreigners' as they go about their rampage though.surbiton said:Pale skin of the gunmen does not mean they could not be IS. Many Syrians, Afghans can be white, blond and with blue eyes !
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Classy light fittingCasino_Royale said:
Can we assume this guy has a 2:2?nunu said:Is this our Malcolm?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IRk6Q8F3EwQ0 -
I believe from previous international military or security events that Yokel is connected with intelligence or security services. He had proved remarkably accurate in his analysis of such events in the past.surbiton said:
How come you know this already ? Where do you get your information from ?Y0kel said:The police in Munich are worked their nuts off to achieve a cordon lock, and they may well have succeeded after the McDonalds shooting.
If they have, this particular incident will be over in a few hours. If not, its going to be a real response problem.
What we haven't heard yet is any evidence of house visits elsewhere. even in the midst of an incident a single locale, ideally you'd want to be going through your list of whoever's and seeing if they are at home.
The police know the ethnic origin already.
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Does it? Or does it just mean that there are more seats with Communist-socialist transfers see the Reds in ahead of anyone on the centre or right, than FN strongholds.rcs1000 said:Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.0 -
Please don't make me laugh when I'm drinking a glass of wine.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Jihadis usually shout 'Alluah Akbar' rather than 'Fucking Foreigners' as they go about their rampage though.surbiton said:Pale skin of the gunmen does not mean they could not be IS. Many Syrians, Afghans can be white, blond and with blue eyes !
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Or was it 'Germany first'?nunu said:
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Apparently the shopping centre is built on the site of the 1972 Olympics.0
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One of the few posters whose posts are always worth readingRichard_Tyndall said:
I believe from previous international military or security events that Yokel is connected with intelligence or security services. He had proved remarkably accurate in his analysis of such events in the past.surbiton said:
How come you know this already ? Where do you get your information from ?Y0kel said:The police in Munich are worked their nuts off to achieve a cordon lock, and they may well have succeeded after the McDonalds shooting.
If they have, this particular incident will be over in a few hours. If not, its going to be a real response problem.
What we haven't heard yet is any evidence of house visits elsewhere. even in the midst of an incident a single locale, ideally you'd want to be going through your list of whoever's and seeing if they are at home.
The police know the ethnic origin already.0 -
There were nine Communist - FN run offs, albeit all with relatively small LR votes to distribute. In every case, the Communists won.david_herdson said:
Does it? Or does it just mean that there are more seats with Communist-socialist transfers see the Reds in ahead of anyone on the centre or right, than FN strongholds.rcs1000 said:Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.
Put another way: the Les Republicains, and PS votes went up in the second rounds markedly. The FN share - on a constituency level - barely budged anywhere.0 -
I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.Paul_Bedfordshire said:China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.
I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.0 -
Very risky for the keyboard!rcs1000 said:
Please don't make me laugh when I'm drinking a glass of wine.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Jihadis usually shout 'Alluah Akbar' rather than 'Fucking Foreigners' as they go about their rampage though.surbiton said:Pale skin of the gunmen does not mean they could not be IS. Many Syrians, Afghans can be white, blond and with blue eyes !
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That's not near the city centre, from memory. I think it's going out towards the airport. Maybe the equivalent of somewhere like East Finchley or Muswell Hill.AndyJS said:Apparently the shopping centre is built on the site of the 1972 Olympics.
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Sky news - german police - no indication of Islamist terror0
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Six now confirmed dead0
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Because he speaks German and understands the immediate actions taken at all these eventssurbiton said:
How come you know this already ? Where do you get your information from ?Y0kel said:The police in Munich are worked their nuts off to achieve a cordon lock, and they may well have succeeded after the McDonalds shooting.
If they have, this particular incident will be over in a few hours. If not, its going to be a real response problem.
What we haven't heard yet is any evidence of house visits elsewhere. even in the midst of an incident a single locale, ideally you'd want to be going through your list of whoever's and seeing if they are at home.
The police know the ethnic origin already.
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I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.AndyJS said:
I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.
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Several reports have the gunmen carrying 'long rifles', a slightly odd description of AKs/ARs? All the current pics show the shooters with handguns, not your usual hardware for an ISIS inspired attack.
Fwiw Breivik's weapons were a hunting rifle & handgun.0 -
I read somewhere that IS "telegram" video of the attack was aired. However, I have not heard this since.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Sky news - german police - no indication of Islamist terror
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Why? He's making a good point about the devaluation of degrees.Casino_Royale said:
Can we assume this guy has a 2:2?nunu said:Is this our Malcolm?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IRk6Q8F3EwQ
He voted Leave and Yes.0 -
Munich is far rights historical home. Where do you think Hitler and Co. started out and had his attempted coup in the 20s?Pulpstar said:
I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.AndyJS said:
I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.
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Isn't really like Brevik at all. Brevik was making a political "point" in his choice of targets, he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.Richard_Tyndall said:
I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.Paul_Bedfordshire said:China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.
I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.0 -
Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.Pulpstar said:
I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.AndyJS said:
I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.
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Was this shooter?brokenwheel said:
.....he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.Richard_Tyndall said:
I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.Paul_Bedfordshire said:China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.
I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.0 -
<
Judging by the death and injury toll (5 dead, double figures injured) and what Ive seen about it they were shooting foreigners rather than indiscriminately which would have killed and injured more with three gunmen.brokenwheel said:
Isn't really like Brevik at all. Brevik was making a political "point" in his choice of targets, he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.Richard_Tyndall said:
I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.Paul_Bedfordshire said:China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.
I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.0 -
tlg86 said:
Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.Pulpstar said:
I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.AndyJS said:
I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.
IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.
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He set off a bomb in a fairly busy area.brokenwheel said:
Isn't really like Brevik at all. Brevik was making a political "point" in his choice of targets, he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.Richard_Tyndall said:
I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.Paul_Bedfordshire said:China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.
I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.0 -
This is where you need CCTV cameras.0
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We have no idea who the victims are so far in this case so it isn't really possible to claim it was indiscriminate.brokenwheel said:
Isn't really like Brevik at all. Brevik was making a political "point" in his choice of targets, he wasn't shooting apparently indescriminately in a busy area.Richard_Tyndall said:
I must admit it does seem to have a Brevik feel about it. If some of the gunmen have managed to slip away that might also be explained by the police believing they were looking for middle eastern types rather than Europeans.Paul_Bedfordshire said:China peoples daily has tweeted another photo of another of the gunmen on the car park roof. Looks like a central european gentleman to me.
I'm calling far right on this - not necessarily German nationals though.0 -
Very near the site of the massacre, according to Telegraph maps...SouthamObserver said:
That's not near the city centre, from memory. I think it's going out towards the airport. Maybe the equivalent of somewhere like East Finchley or Muswell Hill.AndyJS said:Apparently the shopping centre is built on the site of the 1972 Olympics.
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This gunman apparently was on benefits and appears to have a limp.0
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Looks like Trump has deleted his tweet which concluded Islamists were responsible.0
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With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.MarkHopkins said:tlg86 said:
Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.Pulpstar said:
I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.AndyJS said:
I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.
IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn MP ✔@jeremycorbyn
Shocking news from Munich - my thoughts are with the people of the city at this time.
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Well someone is trouble, GSG9 have turned up in Munich.
Those boys are rather good.0 -
GSG 9 is an elite German counter-terrorism, hostage rescue and special operations police unit. - 'Those boys are rather good.' Indeed.0
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By the way the Daily Mirror report is potentially not as it perhaps looks. Lack of clarity on that and it should not quite yet be given full credence.0
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Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway0 -
O/T:
"End of the Line for France's Night Trains?
Half the country’s domestic night routes will be scrapped this autumn."
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/end-of-the-line-for-france-night-trains/492563/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/10/goodnight-to-night-trains/382012/0 -
rcs1000 said:
With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.MarkHopkins said:tlg86 said:
Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.Pulpstar said:
I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.AndyJS said:
I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.
IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.
Lol. Why are u so against Scot Nat's?rcs1000 said:
With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.MarkHopkins said:tlg86 said:
Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.Pulpstar said:
I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.AndyJS said:
I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.
IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.0 -
PONG0
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Conflicting news - not unusual as eyewitnesses are often confused.
Muslim eyewitness heard "Allahu Akbar"
A Muslim woman, named by CNN as Lauretta, told the channel she heard the gunmen shout "Allahu Akhar" as they shot children.
I know this because I am a Muslim.
I saw the shooting of children, who were sitting down to eat. They could not run.
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You have demeaned yourself with this accusation.Pong said:
Boris Johnson Verified account
@BorisJohnson
Deeply shocked & saddened by #Munich shootings. My thoughts are w/ the victims, their loved ones & all #Germany at this time0 -
Oh shut up. Don't type nonsense. Please.Pong said:
Boris Johnson Verified account
@BorisJohnson
Deeply shocked & saddened by #Munich shootings. My thoughts are w/ the victims, their loved ones & all #Germany at this time
This man is a ridiculous parody of a foreign secretary.0 -
I've nothing against them, I just enjoy teasing then.nunu said:rcs1000 said:
With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.MarkHopkins said:tlg86 said:
Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.Pulpstar said:
I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.AndyJS said:
I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.
IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.
Lol. Why are u so against Scot Nat's?rcs1000 said:
With logic like that, it's a real shame he didn't become a cybernat.MarkHopkins said:tlg86 said:
Breivik's attack was also on white children - logic doesn't really come into it.Pulpstar said:
I don't think either the far right or the jihadi nut jobs particularly care about who they hurt.AndyJS said:
I'm struggling to think why the far-right would target conservative Munich.wasd said:It's possible that this could be a far right thing. The person in the Sky footage is pale and beardless.
IIRC the 'logic' was that the children would grow up to part of the governing party which was allowing too many foreigners into the country.0 -
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?Moses_ said:Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
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Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent presidentrcs1000 said:Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.0 -
Yes and the left loathe Sarkozy far more than they disliked Chiracdavid_herdson said:
At the moment, the left would back Sarkozy in sufficient numbers to see him over the line, though it'd be far closer than 2002. It's far from a done deal either way though. Were he to tack too far right, the left might just sit it out.HYUFD said:
Sarkozy wins the middle-class, Le Pen the working class and where the left go would be interestingwilliamglenn said:
The most interesting contest would be Le Pen vs Sarkozy because he's likely to skirt so close to her that she may be able to outflank him on the left.HYUFD said:
She probably wins round 1 in my view, round 2 depends on her opponentGIN1138 said:
President Trump is a "given" IMO.HYUFD said:Yet more terrible terrorist attack la, this time in Germany. Will likely boost the Afd there and the more these attacks become almost routine the more likely we end up with a President Trump or Le Pen
President Le Pen... France might pull back from the brink, though the French political establishment basically telling the French people to "get used" to terrorist outrages must give her a shout.0 -
Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.Casino_Royale said:
Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.Casino_Royale said:
JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.HurstLlama said:
Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.JackW said:
Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.HYUFD said:Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world
As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.
But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.0 -
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.Y0kel said:
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?Moses_ said:Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
0 -
No, he is foreign secretary.Pong said:
Boris Johnson Verified account
@BorisJohnson
Deeply shocked & saddened by #Munich shootings. My thoughts are w/ the victims, their loved ones & all #Germany at this time
This man is a ridiculous parody of a foreign secretary.0 -
Isn't it the US equivalent of the 2.8m who might swing it for Trump. People who don't normally vote and who aren't picked up by polling companies.Alistair said:
Why? Trump is currently behind in the polls and the demographics are not favourable to him in key swing states. He's had a negligible convention bounce.Casino_Royale said:
Trump is JackW v. RodCrosby.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. Royale, not many of us have the brass neck to put out our thoughts as cast iron certainties. Even fewer having got such a prediction hopelessly wrong would then carry on as if nothing had happened.Casino_Royale said:
JackW is clever, experienced, well-connected, and skilled at mathematics but has no special insights than any of us don't have.HurstLlama said:
Quite possibly, Mr. W, but, with full respect, it was only a month ago that you were assuring us that Remain would win at a canter.JackW said:
Nothing certain except they'll all be losers.HYUFD said:Trump up first in November, Wilders next March, Le Pen next May, the AfD in September. Nothing certain in a post Brexit, Isis world
As I said, full respect to Mr. W. and I have won money from following his predictions in the past. However, when an advisor gives you bum advice then one is entitled to remind him/her of the fact and to look a little wider for advice/supporting evidence in the future.
Both are very clever skilled modellers, and successful gamblers, and have good records as pb pundits.
But (close your eyes Jack) if I had to put my money somewhere, it'd be with Rod on this.0 -
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?nunu said:
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.Y0kel said:
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?Moses_ said:Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.0 -
As you say, they know they ethnic origin. Now we are all waiting to hear.Y0kel said:
Ask the authorities, its a potential difference in definition that makes it murky. Is it a crazy bozo? Is it a multi person attack? Is it Islamic is it something else?nunu said:
How can gunmen going on a shooting rampage not be extremist, unless it was one mad person.Y0kel said:
The German police know plenty but they aren't telling. You also have a definition problem where Munich police have said its unlikely to be 'extremist' in nature. Problem is what do the German authorities call extremist? Right wing, left wing, Islamist?Moses_ said:Sky news
A Munich police spokesman says there is no indication of Islamist terror.
A gunman apparently involved in the deadly attack on a Munich shopping centre told bystanders: "I am German". In a video posted on Twitter, the man carrying a rifle can be heard shouting up to people filming him from a balcony.
There have been suggestions that the shooting, which killed at least six people, could have been a right-wing attack, coming on the anniversary of the mass murder by Anders Behring Breivik in Norway
Unclear.
They do know ethnicity but that in itself, particularly in Germany actually now that I think about it, is no guarantee on this one.
There is limited info out of the usual cheerleader channels for IS, that much is clear. They don't seem to bed celebrating it as of about an hour or so ago.
The modus operandi seems obvious, the context seems obvious, but the ground reality isn't yet.
The Germans do have a guess but they are remarkably reluctant to state it.0 -
What's the norm in the US with their polls?
I'd fancy Trump to win if we applied UK norms,which almost always understate the right, to their polls .0 -
8 dead now0
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More boring, i.e. more accurate modelling.chestnut said:What's the norm in the US with their polls?
I'd fancy Trump to win if we applied UK norms,which almost always understate the right, to their polls .
Since they can do state by state polling they can get a very accurate prediction0 -
So they are reliable?corporeal said:
More boring, i.e. more accurate modelling.chestnut said:What's the norm in the US with their polls?
I'd fancy Trump to win if we applied UK norms,which almost always understate the right, to their polls .
Since they can do state by state polling they can get a very accurate prediction0 -
The FN are also a party that is predominantly drawing support based on national issues. Like UKIP, I think they are seen as a bit irrelevant when it comes to local elections. So their natural base of supporters don't turn out, but they will for a presidential. Additionally, MLP is a strong candidate being held back by her party's reputation. She's very serious, not at all like Trump, and she herself doesn't say things THAT extreme. I don't think it will be enough to see her over the line in 2017, but she's setting herself up nicely for 2022.HYUFD said:
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent presidentrcs1000 said:Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.0 -
Munich police spokesman confirms number of dead is now eight.
German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere has canceled a stay in the US and is on his way back to Germany.0 -
JUST IN: Munich death toll has risen to 8, per Munich police: https://t.co/LVXJhFJgwv https://t.co/GzflCF7Sxl0
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@HYUFD
'Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent president '
Exactly, the current collection of left / right politicians isn't working,time to try a new face,it couldn't be worse,anti establishment etc.0 -
About Trump's chances.
Usually the situation after the conventions is close to the final picture, so we will see by early August who will win.
There are also other things, Jeb Bush and Romney will endorse Gary Johnson next week, they are very unpopular among the public and republicans outside of Utah, so it will probably cost Trump Utah but nothing else and will probably damage Johnson outside of Utah.
If will be highly ironic if the candidate for libertarians ends up being endorsed by the Bush family, whom libertarians hate.0 -
Well on present polling, Hollande is either fourth or fifth in the first round. So an unlikely contender for the second round.HYUFD said:
Those elections were before the recent wave of terror attacks, on present polling Marine Le Pen beats Hollande if she faces him in the run-off and he is not a Communist but the incumbent presidentrcs1000 said:Just on France and elections, I think people on this site massively over-estimate Marine Le Pen's chances.
Forget the opinion polls for a second, and lets look at votes in the ballot box.
In the last 18 months, there have been two sets of elections in France, the Departmental and the Regional. In both, the FN came first in the first round. In both, they failed miserably in the second.
I want to put their failure in the second round in context here. This was the party that led nationwide in the first round. But they were so transfer unfriendly that they were beaten by not just traditional parties but by the Communist Party and the Radical Party of the Left. The Communists, in fact, who had less one twentieth of the First Round vote of the Front National, ended up with three times the number of seats.
Think about that for a second: that means that Les Republicains voters - on average - massively preferred to transfer to a Communist than to a Front National candidate.0
