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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A staggering 54% of Corbyn supporters in the YouGov members

The graphic above is from the Times Redbox and has further detail from the Times YouGov Labour members’ poll. This one looks at how at how the Corbyn backers view the current party leader.
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It is those who either outright think he is going to lose, or are too polite essentially to openly say so but certainly not confident of victory who would be giving him victory.
But they keep repeating that, they obviously believe it - and don't have the context to know how bad the local election results were.
Also striking in that latest YouGov, how the pre May 2015 membership are 2:1 for getting rid of Corbyn, but May-Dec 2015 members are 2:1 in favour of him. I think that in itself guarantees that Labour splits - once that sea-change starts influencing PPC selection then there will be a ton of mini-Corbyns contesting seats, and they will mostly end up losing.
Time to dust off that guide to centre-left splits again?
However, in this year's May local elections, the polls significantly understated Labour (an Opinium poll a few days before gave the Tories an 8% lead, on the day Labour won by 1%).
In any case, once again, the issue for swing voters in the Labour selectorate, like me, is not whether Corbyn is likely to lose the next general election - the issue is whether Smith, and the PLP generally, have any better ideas about how to win a general election than Corbyn does. That is still very much an open question to me, especially since we're not even a month on from the PLP showing how little feel they had for the public mood with their insistence that Labour should enthusiastically back the "Remain" campaign.
Some interesting findings there but difficult to work out if the situation is really as shocking as Mike suggests in the absence of comparable data. Part of the process of politics is convincing yourself that you're going to win, or your side is going to win. Time and again we see candidates (apparently seriously) talking up a race as too close to call, "we're getting the impression on the ground we're in with a real chance" when all data suggests they're about to get a beating. Activists stay motivated to campaign by believing it's not a lost cause.
That being the case, is it really unusual for the politically active to believe their chosen candidate is going to win? I wonder how this compares to 2001 Tories, for example: certainly the activists I spent that election night with were completely convinced of their imminent triumph despite the weight of evidence to the contrary.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/20/june-2016-14th-consecutive-month-of-record-breaking-heat-says-us-agencies?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
Someone's done their homework...
It's a form of fanaticism really, and the thought process that good stuff is proof of the genius of x and bad stuff is still proof of the genius of x but nobody could counter the sustained treachery of y. It's nonsense of course but it's persistent nonsense.
Oh, the irony.
The simple fact is that a lot of well-off people in the Labour party are so heavily invested in Corbyn that there is nothing that can be said or done to change their minds; there is no evidence that can be presented that will not be dismissed. Momentum - founded by a millionaire and run by a public schoolboy who grew up in a £7 million house and voted LibDem at the last general election - has now changed it's name to Jeremy for Labour at Companies House.
https://afterlabour.org/2016/07/12/corbyn-and-the-new-political-puritans/
He cannot provide any opposition in Parliament.
He is incapable of engaging with those who do not agree with him.
He does not believe in collective responsibility.
He does not believe in winning power through Parliament.
He is, therefore, incapable of delivering election victory. A far likelier scenario is that he will lead labour to its worst electoral defeat since WW2.
Now that we're fully sovereign (or about to be) I have no problem in strong multilateral defence cooperation with our European partners, provided it's sans EU army.
Which might lead to some severe wing-clipping for the Press barons and their friends.
Just saying.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (+1)
LAB: 29% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via ICM / post-Wednesday)
LOL
He is incapable of listening and changing his mind. He will take Labour down with him, being irremovable by any means. I do not think he would step down even if leading only 100 MPs in 2020.
It seems it is a waste of time arguing with the faithful as they have, or have been supplied with, a pat response to every criticism. Usually to blame the media or say we have to take the fight to the Tories.
We will see what pans out in this election.
1) Sound very unenthusiastic about the EU but still arguing for a "remain" vote
2) At every opportunity saying how much he was in favour of unrestricted immigration
The first may have put him in tune with sections of the electorate, but it was disastrous for the Remain campaign (the one he was supposed to be promoting).
The second put him in tune with virtually nobody.
*I find this spelling of his name really annoying.
I know it has been dismissed in many quarters but the rebel PLP should really be grasping the nettle and forming their own group in Parliament and taking on the mantle of the Official opposition.. This is nothing like SDP mark 2 - they wouldn't even need to form a breakaway party. If they are the face of Labour in parliament and in the media, then over time it is their best chance of effectively taking Corbyn out of the game. They just have to put up with the risk of May engineering a General Election.
For those few Peebies who are holding on to their Party card, may I suggest they propose a motion expelling all University graduates from the Party? After all, if JC doesn't need a degree neither does anyone else ....
Where we ultimately may be going with this is some sort of revision to the Good Friday agreement that addresses a scenario where NI is offically out and EIRE officially in the EU.
One small concession, which should be possible, is that nationalists living in NI can both hold Irish passports and remain EU citizens, if they so wish.
Nevertheless, if you are someone who held left-wing views and had lived through the Blair era, with all the fixing, machine politics and centralised control to make sure your views stayed at the margin, then suddenly Corbyn arrives and 'your' party genuinely feels yours again, it seems self-evident to me that you'd fight hard to hang onto him? The leadership rules requiring a batch of MP nominations, when Blair made sure the MPs are all stacked against the left, are why he is not resigning. With different rules, or different MPs, Labour would probably be under McDonnell by now.
Are Corbynistas to Corbyn as the Lib Dems are to the EU?
More seriously, their zealousness [Corbynistas, not Lib Dems] may put off moderate/swing Labour members. Assuming there still are some.
Look at Cameron. I went from being a long term fan to insulted Party member in a few weeks. Before the Brexit campaign got dirty - I was happy for him to stay on. Then I wanted him gone post-haste. He's now barely mentioned just a week later. I'd never expect this sequence of events.
Leave to win, Leave on 50-55%, May as Tory leader and next PM, Cameron to leave office of PM before end 2016, Osborne to leave office of Chancellor by end 2016, and Donald Trump as Republican nominee all came in.
Only one that didn't was Gove as next Chancellor, and Rubio as next President ain't looking too good either.
While they are party of the Labour party, the elected leader is the face in Parliament.
The media would police having two Labour spokesman on evey issue
It's worth noting, though, that according to the Times poll yesterday Corbyn has lost a great deal of support among pre-2015 members and would lose if the franchise was restricted just to them. It is the support of the new members that will see him home.
I would imagine the scenario you propose at the end must fall foul of Labour rules, somehow, and line you up for expulsion. I doubt the MPs can divorce themselves from the official party and still sit in Parliament as "Labour"?
Border controls I think will be fine. Either we'll have Irish officers doing checks on behalf of the U.K. at the Irish frontier, and/or UK officers doing further checks on travel between NI and the mainland.
Jersey/Guernsey are also part of common travel area, yet outside the EU, so there is a precedent and these things can work.
I looked on and cringed, but that's the game the faithful must believe in - sometimes it actually happens, look at Brexit.
"The government's energy efficiency loan scheme had an "abysmal" take-up rate because it had not been tested with consumers, MPs have said.
The "Green Deal" ended last year after providing just £50m in 14,000 loans to households to boost energy efficiency."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36833235
The Department for Energy spent £240m on this scheme. To provide £50m.
And the other £190m went on, what?
I see that Ben Carson hasn't become the GOP VP nominee
At the moment, I'd say that is looking quite likely.
It claimed that in the coming nuclear war, only JWs would be saved - and the post apocalyptic world would be all Kew Gardens without the greenhouses.
I guess people take solace and inspiration where they find it.
Has your banker friend recovered from the 20k lost punt on Remain yet? That has got to hurt...
Theresa Villiers said this wouldn't happen.
And anyone who pointed out the obvious constitutional implications of brexit on NI was being "highly irresponsible"
Thanks for fucking up my country.
Labour has acknowledged to itself that it is shit at politics. They haven't won a majority since 1974.* So they might as well have a go at evangelism.
*Apparently they did win three times under Blair the Heretic. But those wins were nothing to do with the true Labour Party. It was just hijacked by a coalition of concensus-builders and Tory voters. So, like the central computer in Rollerball that just lost the entire 13th Century in a malfunction, that period of Labour's history no longer exists. There are consequently no lessons to be learned.
Yes.. Ouch. I haven't spoken to him since. I don't think he's in a happy place at the moment.
Might be seeing him Saturday.
On second thoughts, maybe not. NHS care is woeful at weekends...
- 2015 GE: Con majority
- Lib Dem seats: won by Con
- EURef: Brexit/UKIP win
The only exception is Corbyn himself - but that was an *internal* party contest, the cause for which is not reflected in the wider country.
I can't think of a far Right equivalent to the MS. The Express' opposite number is The Mirror.
An £8bn new customs system??
I mean it's not as if these issues weren't known.
Quite pleased with my own thread header record: I suggested the economy was not going to trump sovereignty and immigration arguments, that division within the parties sand disconnect between parties and the public would contribute to Leave sentiment, that Leave would win, and that it was hard to look past May for the PMship.
Cabinet and shad cabinet appointments rather overturned by events. As, in fact, was the wider impact of Chilcot. Still quite surprised by the latter. I'm also thinking my tip on a 16 GE is now looking very, very unlikely.
Still trying to get to grips with a piece on 'where the Tory party goes now'...
One big difference from the 1980s is that, back then, the left controlled a lot of Labour councils, particularly in London, and their antics (suitably exaggerated to make better copy) were regularly splashed across the tabloids. This helped turn a lot of the public against Labour and accelerated the pressure for reform.
This time I don't see any evidence of this - the councillors on balance appear to lean towards the moderate side, presumably because of the same grip on selections that was maintained through the Blair er?
Alternatively, if they leave (or are kicked out of) Labour, then SDP2 is precisely what it is.
Then wiggles his eyebrows.
Or would one have to be born within he six counties?
I still can't get over Guido flying out to Berkeley to expose him as a giant fibber. That whole saga was very funny. 2009 - it doesn't feel that long ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1So2RlPjjfY