politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » France’s next president: Hollande is sunk but who will foll
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As long as the government has got binding assurances, I can't see a problem. Softbank has sold its purchases onto Chinese companies in the past, though; and the Chinese would absolutely love to get their hands on ARM - especially given the deals the company has started to do in China. Whether ARM is UK-owned is pretty immaterial. It's whether it is primarily UK-based that matters.Richard_Nabavi said:Ah, ARM. My best ever investment, made shortly after it floated in 1998 at the ludicrously low valuation of (from memory) just over £200m. I couldn't understand what the investment banks advising on the float price were thinking - my back-of-the-envelope calculations made it worth at least 10 times that amount. In the event I sold out for 30 times what I'd invested.
There's no doubt that ARM is a class act, but the price Softbank are paying is very high - £24bn for a company which made just £414m profit before tax in 2015.
As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think. Nor is there much risk of them moving the design team out of Cambridge - you can't reproduce that level of concentrated hi-tech expertise easily, and there's no advantage in trying to do so.
Incidentally, in the short term this is a bit of very welcome news to Phil Hammond. £24bn is a substantial injection of foreign exchange to offset the current account deficit (£32.6bn in Q1 2016).
The interesting thing to see in the short to medium term will be how this affects the kind of licences ARM offers. That premium has to be accounted for somehow. A profitable resale is one way, but assuming that is off the table the licensing policies and royalty rates look to be the obvious place to start making money back, as does the sale of non-core IP assets.
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Son hasn't done any of this with previous SoftBank purchases. I don't see why he would start with ARM.Jonathan said:
Been destroyed over the past 20 years. Here's how it goes.MaxPB said:
Corporate R&D is poor in the UK.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
UK based company is merged or taken over by another entity headquarted elsewhere.
Two R&D centres in Europe
Company decides to start research in China.
Company decides to keep R&D near headquarters.
UK R&D unit closes.0 -
BannedInParis said:
I got to rule 3, which I broke.PlatoSaid said:This still makes me smile
The behaviour rules for South Shields Labour meetings appear to ban almost everything that people do in meetings https://t.co/sJhRtLGlGG
At one of the student unions, they interpreted clapping as both aggressive and personal and possibly dismissive.
http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/614/631/54b.gif
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Mr. Sandpit, even before the VSC (and your Monaco tip was unfortunate not to come off) it was very unlikely in Hungary.
Do wonder if the Red Bulls might be value. Only 8 each on Ladbrokes, though.
Rosberg at 4 may be too long. He really needs to arrest Hamilton's momentum, though.0 -
thanks david. it does seem a little dangerous allowing the general public to choose your candidate. if you support any of the candidates other than juppe must be tempting to vote sarkozy to get him on the ticket simply because he seems much more beatable.david_herdson said:
Yes, it's a national primary, although I must admit, I don't know what (if any) the qualification rules are. From what I have seen, I agree: it does sound like a full, general public vote, but I wouldn't take my view as definitive.paulyork64 said:
thanks for the article david. seems like a lot rests on the juppe/sarkozy call. who and how exactly is that choice made? If i'm reading it correctly the general public vote on it in november?david_herdson said:
Except that's not what the polls suggest. There's a reasonable chance that she'll win the first round and it's near certain that she'll make the final two. Her problem, as you rightly point out, is in gaining transfers, but she may not need all that many if there are mass abstentions in the second round, something which some polls - particularly Hollande-Le Pen head-to-heads - suggest could well happen.Casino_Royale said:Juppe.
The Front National just has too much baggage (at the moment) to win 50%+1 in the second round of a presidential election, and Le Pen lacks something that candidates like Hofer seem to have in Austria.
That said, I really don't see how she gets past Juppe.
Even if Sarkozy wins the primary - which he's some way off being likely to at the moment - he should still go on to win, but both the first and second rounds would become much more open affairs.0 -
That's quite funny. I admit that's funny. And your clever Oxonian word play always arouses me.grabcocque said:
"When you play the game of thrones you win... or you sulk"YellowSubmarine said:
But this isn't a Death it's a War. Even if EU membership is dead in a political struggle there are myriad other outcomes still in play. If I'm stuck in Kubler-Ross why shouldn't I try and get the mob that killed our EU membership to move on to the Brexiters if everything goes to **** ? Does the Game of Thrones end for ever when there is a new occupant ?grabcocque said:
Firstly: childish sulking is not part of DABDAYellowSubmarine said:
Understanding the Kubler-Ross model doesn't mean bereavement is an illegitimate response to a death.Moses_ said:
To place your constant postings about everything bad about the leave vote info context please could you clarify at what point you are within the 5 stages? It looks like the stage 2 anger but perhaps could also be stage 4 depression?YellowSubmarine said:Brexit impact is going to be horrible, says leading City fund manager
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/17/brexit-impact-horrible-uk-economy-richard-buxton?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard. < Slightly more nuanced that the headline.
Thanks in advance
Secondly: an understanding of the model should make it easier not to be such an arse about everything.0 -
Not sure there is much understanding around that ARM isn't a steelworks...MaxPB said:
Son hasn't done any of this with previous SoftBank purchases. I don't see why he would start with ARM.Jonathan said:
Been destroyed over the past 20 years. Here's how it goes.MaxPB said:
Corporate R&D is poor in the UK.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
UK based company is merged or taken over by another entity headquarted elsewhere.
Two R&D centres in Europe
Company decides to start research in China.
Company decides to keep R&D near headquarters.
UK R&D unit closes.
% of ARM employees in Uk that are unionised ? 0% .
Hence why you wont see much comment from Corbyn..
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Involvement of the army in security is exactly what's needed. The police removed the vans (vans!) that were used to block access by terrorist lorries to the Nice promenade. That kind of balls-up rarely happens at army bases, and if it happened in a conflict zone there would be serious repercussions. After Nice, Francois Hollande said that everything possible had been done to prevent such attacks, which is an outrageous thing to tell the people he is supposed to protect (i.e. everyone in France) and utter shit for the morale of those who have a security role. He's not up to the job. He should get out and let someone take over who is less into posturing.Cyclefree said:
But not army soldiers just patrolling the streets. That's what struck me.peter_from_putney said:Cyclefree:
"No wonder morale within the French police is said to be low. Incidentally, on my recent quick visit through Paris I saw groups of soldiers patrolling the streets and metro. I've never seen this before, even when Algerian terrorists were blowing people up on the streets of Paris in the 1980's. What have we come to when a major civilised country is forced to do this?"
Surely it's long been common practice, especially in London, for heavily armed police to protect sensitive areas including The Central Criminal Court, Downing Street, the Houses of Parliament, the U.S. Embassy, Heathrow, etc., etc?
The army understand security better. They need to be given the kind of powers that the fire service have. If fire security at a hotel is inadequate, because of a malfunctioning alarm, say, the fire service can shut the place down right there and then. The fire service also has an important educational and training role. The army should be involved in the security of high streets, shopping malls, entertainment events and railway stations. No music festivals or concerts should be allowed to happen without the army present. Almost all staff on the British railway system have a security role ("if you see anything suspicious, report it to any member of staff"), but many view it as bullcrap of an unnecessary "health and safety" kind, often doing nothing if someone who doesn't speak with authority reports something to them. ("Oh, he put a bag down, did he, madam? Don't worry.") A soldier who neglected his duty in such a fashion would find that his feet didn't touch the ground. If staff had regular contact with soldiers, they'd soon wise up.
But are you sure the armed men you saw in Paris weren't CRS?
You sound surprised, but the overarching function of the armed forces is to protect the home territory. I would like them to be more visible in Britain than they are.0 -
It has been significantly downgraded in many UK academic institutions, with funding either frozen or cut. The decline in the UK's position in the university rankings over recent years reflects this to an extent. Hopefully, one part of Brexit vote - and the increased government spending we are going to see as a result - will be a restoration of funding for our world class universities.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
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O/T are you as enthusiastic about President Erdogan now as you were on a couple of nights ago?surbiton said:
That is what happens when the pound slides by 10% .JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.0 -
Houseprices tend to be slow motion car crashes generally. People rarely cut the selling price on their property sharply. I will be very interested to see transaction numbers over the next few months, as it would be better to see a sharp drop but volumes holding up, than a shallow fall on minimal volume, which would suggest that cheapness of sterling is not bringing new buyers in.MaxPB said:
All I would say is that none of that has actually happened yet. All we can see so far is the fall in Sterling. Very little else has changed. Even the house price indicators are not as negative as they were expected to be.John_M said:
Some points I've picked up from various ruminations and forecasts:grabcocque said:
OH NO BREXIT HAS MADE THE UK A MORE ATTRACTIVE TARGET FOR INVESTMENT! WE'RE DOOOOOOOOMED!MaxPB said:
Indeed, the idea that this is a cut price deal is a fantasy. This is a 70% premium on ARM's pre-referendum price and even after adjusting for a 10% reduction in the value of Sterling it is still a 54% premium.grabcocque said:
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.Jonathan said:Shame about ARM holdings.
The Brexit fire sale begins.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
Perhaps now is time for sulky remainers to STFU until we get some *actual* bad economic news. Perhaps the collapse of the Italian and German banking sectors can be blamed on Brexit I dunno.
- A technical recession of around -0.8%. (IMF). Others have it slightly worse (e.g. Credit Suisse)
- Inflation to rise to ~ 2.2% in 2017 (S&P)
- A GDP opportunity cost of around 2% by 2018 (various)
- A 2.5% rise in unemployment by 2018 (various)
- A delay of 1-2 years before UK budget surplus implying Brexit PR cost of ~ £30 billion (IFS)
These are all decent examples.0 -
My experience having a contract with Softbank is that Son will work out a way to charge you 300 yen any time you say the word "Cambridge".rcs1000 said:
It's not like Cambridge is going to be closed.0 -
I may be misremembering, but when I had my first mortgage in the late 80s - when interest rates changed - it was by a 1pt margin. Ken Clarke IIRC made something of stir when he brought in 0.5pt changes.stodge said:
QE is financial methadone and the markets are addicted. One day interest rates will have to rise and what happens then ? Or is this the "new normal" with almost zero inflation and interest rates - what's the point in anyone saving ?IanB2 said:
tbf markets are up around the world, with the latest wall of money about to be unleashed by the Japanese, expectations that interest rates will stay lower for longer given the Brexit vote (with the UK poised to reduce), and the clear statement from the BoI that it will create money to prop everything up if there is any sign of a wobble. It has been the same after previous suggestions of renewed crisis - once the authorities announce they won't let things go down, of course investors jump in for some risk-free money.
The continued predictions of eventual doom from some commentators rest upon the conclusion that at some point the wall-of-money approach will stop working, and we'll have nowhere else to go.
None of this says anything about whether Brexit will be good, bad or indifferent.
And it was under Gordon or Darling that we saw 0.25pt changes downwards. The rates we paid in the 80s are unimaginable today - the housing market would have a fit.0 -
OK. A brief Memo: #1 Before 23/6/16 everything was the fault of the EU. #2 After 23/6/16 everything is the fault of Brexit. That's how Culture Wars work. Remainia has always been at war with Brexiannia. For those of us who've swapped sides we'll get used to it. Some of us faster than others it seems.0
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I would say Brexit is very much in spin mode right now. You could say Remainers are grumpy bad losers, but they aren't important. Any Brexit badness will be what it is. We voted for it. The Government OTOH has to implement Brexit and I still don't see any coherent or credible plan. Brexit ministers are going heavy on Leave rhetoric as if they were still on campaign. Fair enough, the government can hardly say, it will be a disaster but we'll carry on regardless. They certainly aren't preparing the public for a bumpy ride.0
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I was rather proud of the Monaco SC bet, even though it didn't come off thanks to the weather.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, even before the VSC (and your Monaco tip was unfortunate not to come off) it was very unlikely in Hungary.
Do wonder if the Red Bulls might be value. Only 8 each on Ladbrokes, though.
Rosberg at 4 may be too long. He really needs to arrest Hamilton's momentum, though.
For a guy with the quickest car to be 3/1 sounds too long, especially given that Lewis is going to get penalties at some point soon - he's used all his engines and has two reprimands to his name.
RBs are both 8 on Betfair too, I might go with an Ayrton on Nico and fivers on the RBs.0 -
Well, I'm going to carry on blaming the Welsh.YellowSubmarine said:OK. A brief Memo: #1 Before 23/6/16 everything was the fault of the EU. #2 After 23/6/16 everything is the fault of Brexit. That's how Culture Wars work. Remainia has always been at war with Brexiannia. For those of us who've swapped sides we'll get used to it. Some of us faster than others it seems.
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True, do you know what proportion?rcs1000 said:£24bn doesn't come into the UK. ARM is largely owned by non-UK funds already.
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Fair enough, it was a genuine question. But if we can't actually enter any new trade deals for the next 3 years say, why all the breathless excitement about Australia or wherever rushing to do a deal now? I can only assume it is because, even if with 2 very willing participants, it is going to take 3 years? Again genuine questionsMaxPB said:
He is not correct, the UK cannot unilaterally enter a trade deal outside of the EU. We can talk to whoever we want. This is like a wife to whom we've served divorce papers crying foul after we've re-entered the dating scene despite the divorce not being finalised.OllyT said:
OK but is he technically correct that a member country cannot unilaterally open trade negotiations with a non-EU country? If so what sanctions are available if we break that undertaking?Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
As we are going to be a member for another two and a half years at least will both sides then feel free to ignore any EU regulations that don't suit during that period?
I know PB will be full of jingoistic bravado about telling johnny-foreigner to bugger off but, in the real world, I suspect the situation is more complicated.0 -
It certainly is the excuse du jour for businesses announcing any sort of bad news, even if the connections are very tenuous.YellowSubmarine said:OK. A brief Memo: #1 Before 23/6/16 everything was the fault of the EU. #2 After 23/6/16 everything is the fault of Brexit. That's how Culture Wars work. Remainia has always been at war with Brexiannia. For those of us who've swapped sides we'll get used to it. Some of us faster than others it seems.
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From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.0 -
Hopefully, now that we have a grown-up in charge these traps will become less of a thing. Given where Labour are there is absolutely no need for them. Surely the government has better things to do than to play student politics.Mortimer said:So. How many Labour MPs are going to walk into the giant trap sized and fully signposted trident trap today?
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When did he get his HGV licence?Cyclefree said:One final point: the Nice killer moved to France in 2005. He had no skills.
The National Front get a lot of Jewish votes (which is not to say that some French Jews don't oppose it) and is strongly pro-Zionist, and Le Pen would not initiate any punitive measures against Jews. Against Muslims (the detested Arabs), yes.daodao said:
The more attacks there are, the more likely it is for Marine Le Pen to win in 2017 and initiate punitive measures against residents of France (Muslims/Jews, mainly of North African origin) who hold views that are alien to European Christian values.
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It's been almost ten years since we had a vote committing the house to Trident.PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
If it were every year I might think it were a trick.0 -
It wouldn't be difficult for me to work out (thanks Bloomberg!), but it would be time consuming. I'm going to guess that it's 33% UK owned, 67% foreign.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, do you know what proportion?rcs1000 said:£24bn doesn't come into the UK. ARM is largely owned by non-UK funds already.
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Here's ARM's major shareholders:Richard_Nabavi said:
True, do you know what proportion?rcs1000 said:£24bn doesn't come into the UK. ARM is largely owned by non-UK funds already.
http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=ARMH
Edgewood are by far the largest. They're based in Philadelphia.
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ARM's premium is Son's valuation of the future and ARM's potential place in it. Son is not about to dismantle the substance on which he valued ARM's worth today and potential tomorrow. You'll have to wait years to see whether Son got his sums right. Son is not a trader.SouthamObserver said:
As long as the government has got binding assurances, I can't see a problem. Softbank has sold its purchases onto Chinese companies in the past, though; and the Chinese would absolutely love to get their hands on ARM - especially given the deals the company has started to do in China. Whether ARM is UK-owned is pretty immaterial. It's whether it is primarily UK-based that matters.Richard_Nabavi said:Ah, ARM. My best ever investment, made shortly after it floated in 1998 at the ludicrously low valuation of (from memory) just over £200m. I couldn't understand what the investment banks advising on the float price were thinking - my back-of-the-envelope calculations made it worth at least 10 times that amount. In the event I sold out for 30 times what I'd invested.
There's no doubt that ARM is a class act, but the price Softbank are paying is very high - £24bn for a company which made just £414m profit before tax in 2015.
As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think. Nor is there much risk of them moving the design team out of Cambridge - you can't reproduce that level of concentrated hi-tech expertise easily, and there's no advantage in trying to do so.
Incidentally, in the short term this is a bit of very welcome news to Phil Hammond. £24bn is a substantial injection of foreign exchange to offset the current account deficit (£32.6bn in Q1 2016).
The interesting thing to see in the short to medium term will be how this affects the kind of licences ARM offers. That premium has to be accounted for somehow. A profitable resale is one way, but assuming that is off the table the licensing policies and royalty rates look to be the obvious place to start making money back, as does the sale of non-core IP assets.0 -
Licensing deals. At the time, ARM had little actual revenue, but it had already established itself as the overwhelmingly dominant architecture for the new generation of chips. You only had to read any issue of Electronics Weekly (this was at a time when traditional publications still mattered!) to see that almost every company developing software and hardware for the embededd and hand-held device market was partnering with ARM. That in turn gave ARM a huge first-mover advantage, because everyone wanted to be part of the new de facto industry standard. It was game over before many actual chips had shipped.grabcocque said:On what did you base your assessment of future growth? This was long before ARM's breakout success in smartphones.
In addition, I had very good contacts with one of the traditional chip manufacturers. They were under no illusion that a giant market was slipping away from them, and were scrabbling to catch up. Of course they failed, and ended up licensing ARM's IP.0 -
That is exactly how it will play out politically and it's no use Brexiters shouting it's not fair, the boot is firmly on the other foot now. The electorate is extremely fickle and not very sophisticated on the whole.YellowSubmarine said:OK. A brief Memo: #1 Before 23/6/16 everything was the fault of the EU. #2 After 23/6/16 everything is the fault of Brexit. That's how Culture Wars work. Remainia has always been at war with Brexiannia. For those of us who've swapped sides we'll get used to it. Some of us faster than others it seems.
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Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.grabcocque said:
I'm not denying some (or all) of these may occur. But they've not happened *yet*. And until they do, I think the mingmongs should really stop trying to invent crises where none exist.John_M said:Some points I've picked up from various ruminations and forecasts:
- A technical recession of around -0.8%. (IMF). Others have it slightly worse (e.g. Credit Suisse)
- Inflation to rise to ~ 2.2% in 2017 (S&P)
- A GDP opportunity cost of around 2% by 2018 (various)
- A 2.5% rise in unemployment by 2018 (various)
- A delay of 1-2 years before UK budget surplus implying Brexit PR cost of ~ £30 billion (IFS)
These are all decent examples.
JOOI, what happens if these things don't materialize? Does it then become Official the remainers were just a bunch of lying shitstacks all along?
As for the verbiage, I need to point out this quote:
"I always cheer up immensely if one is particularly wounding because I think well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. That is why my father always taught me: never worry about anyone who attacks you personally; it means their arguments carry no weight and they know it.”
Margaret Thatcher, interview on RAI, broadcast on 18 March 1986.
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Mr. Sandpit, may be worth waiting a bit. The Ladbrokes markets may well be up later today, and some other bets (podium, top score etc) may offer better value.
Last time, hopefully, I'll mention it, but my mid-season review, including a horribly skewed graph and four suggestions for spread-betting, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html0 -
Not that Britain has yet served divorce papers yet, though it's said it will do.MaxPB said:
He is not correct, the UK cannot unilaterally enter a trade deal outside of the EU. We can talk to whoever we want. This is like a wife to whom we've served divorce papers crying foul after we've re-entered the dating scene despite the divorce not being finalised.OllyT said:
OK but is he technically correct that a member country cannot unilaterally open trade negotiations with a non-EU country? If so what sanctions are available if we break that undertaking?Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
As we are going to be a member for another two and a half years at least will both sides then feel free to ignore any EU regulations that don't suit during that period?
I know PB will be full of jingoistic bravado about telling johnny-foreigner to bugger off but, in the real world, I suspect the situation is more complicated.0 -
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.0 -
@tnewtondunn: Theresa May going to see Merkel tomorrow and Hollande on Thurs for a chat "as the UK prepares to leave the EU". Forcing pre-Brexit talks?0
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Thanks, the foreign ownership is higher than I thought.rcs1000 said:
It wouldn't be difficult for me to work out (thanks Bloomberg!), but it would be time consuming. I'm going to guess that it's 33% UK owned, 67% foreign.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, do you know what proportion?rcs1000 said:£24bn doesn't come into the UK. ARM is largely owned by non-UK funds already.
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Remember George Osborne was cutting UK research funds while the Chinese are massively ramping up theirs (SeanT sent many reports iirc). Whether this will be restored, as well as substitution of lost EU funding, who knows?SouthamObserver said:
It has been significantly downgraded in many UK academic institutions, with funding either frozen or cut. The decline in the UK's position in the university rankings over recent years reflects this to an extent. Hopefully, one part of Brexit vote - and the increased government spending we are going to see as a result - will be a restoration of funding for our world class universities.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.0 -
Last month Softbank sold its majority stake in Supercell 2 to Tencent.MaxPB said:
Son hasn't done any of this with previous SoftBank purchases. I don't see why he would start with ARM.Jonathan said:
Been destroyed over the past 20 years. Here's how it goes.MaxPB said:
Corporate R&D is poor in the UK.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
UK based company is merged or taken over by another entity headquarted elsewhere.
Two R&D centres in Europe
Company decides to start research in China.
Company decides to keep R&D near headquarters.
UK R&D unit closes.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/06/21/tencent-buys-clash-clans-maker-supercell-softbank/86169756/
0 -
I don't think so, which is why delaying Article 50 is in our interests.OllyT said:
Fair enough, it was a genuine question. But if we can't actually enter any new trade deals for the next 3 years say, why all the breathless excitement about Australia or wherever rushing to do a deal now? I can only assume it is because, even if with 2 very willing participants, it is going to take 3 years? Again genuine questionsMaxPB said:
He is not correct, the UK cannot unilaterally enter a trade deal outside of the EU. We can talk to whoever we want. This is like a wife to whom we've served divorce papers crying foul after we've re-entered the dating scene despite the divorce not being finalised.OllyT said:
OK but is he technically correct that a member country cannot unilaterally open trade negotiations with a non-EU country? If so what sanctions are available if we break that undertaking?Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
As we are going to be a member for another two and a half years at least will both sides then feel free to ignore any EU regulations that don't suit during that period?
I know PB will be full of jingoistic bravado about telling johnny-foreigner to bugger off but, in the real world, I suspect the situation is more complicated.0 -
It is the Commission that doesn't hold pre-Brexit talks.Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Theresa May going to see Merkel tomorrow and Hollande on Thurs for a chat "as the UK prepares to leave the EU". Forcing pre-Brexit talks?
Member states can do as they wish.0 -
This is your periodic reminder that "ad hominem" isn't Latin for "you're mean".viewcode said:
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.grabcocque said:
I'm not denying some (or all) of these may occur. But they've not happened *yet*. And until they do, I think the mingmongs should really stop trying to invent crises where none exist.John_M said:Some points I've picked up from various ruminations and forecasts:
- A technical recession of around -0.8%. (IMF). Others have it slightly worse (e.g. Credit Suisse)
- Inflation to rise to ~ 2.2% in 2017 (S&P)
- A GDP opportunity cost of around 2% by 2018 (various)
- A 2.5% rise in unemployment by 2018 (various)
- A delay of 1-2 years before UK budget surplus implying Brexit PR cost of ~ £30 billion (IFS)
These are all decent examples.
JOOI, what happens if these things don't materialize? Does it then become Official the remainers were just a bunch of lying shitstacks all along?
As for the verbiage, I need to point out this quote:
"I always cheer up immensely if one is particularly wounding because I think well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. That is why my father always taught me: never worry about anyone who attacks you personally; it means their arguments carry no weight and they know it.”
Margaret Thatcher, interview on RAI, broadcast on 18 March 1986.0 -
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.Sandpit said:
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heathrow-runway-ruling-may-come-in-weeks-says-grayling-nkxvkz3sq0 -
Spin, simply. Finding new trade deals to replace the ones that we will lose is activity we need to do. The breathless excitement is in planting the idea that we don't need the EU. New trade deals, in fact just talking about them, means we could avoid the messy business of working out a good post-Brexit relationship with the EU.OllyT said:
Fair enough, it was a genuine question. But if we can't actually enter any new trade deals for the next 3 years say, why all the breathless excitement about Australia or wherever rushing to do a deal now? I can only assume it is because, even if with 2 very willing participants, it is going to take 3 years? Again genuine questionsMaxPB said:
He is not correct, the UK cannot unilaterally enter a trade deal outside of the EU. We can talk to whoever we want. This is like a wife to whom we've served divorce papers crying foul after we've re-entered the dating scene despite the divorce not being finalised.OllyT said:
OK but is he technically correct that a member country cannot unilaterally open trade negotiations with a non-EU country? If so what sanctions are available if we break that undertaking?Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
As we are going to be a member for another two and a half years at least will both sides then feel free to ignore any EU regulations that don't suit during that period?
I know PB will be full of jingoistic bravado about telling johnny-foreigner to bugger off but, in the real world, I suspect the situation is more complicated.0 -
I'll hold for a day if you say so, but will probably stay on Betfair (don't have many other accounts, as getting money out when I spend so much time abroad is a pain in the proverbial).Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, may be worth waiting a bit. The Ladbrokes markets may well be up later today, and some other bets (podium, top score etc) may offer better value.
Last time, hopefully, I'll mention it, but my mid-season review, including a horribly skewed graph and four suggestions for spread-betting, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html
Your mid season review is good, I'll follow your spread bets, but like you only with virtual cash for now.
A thought on next year, there's a lot of changes on the cars for 2017 but little on the power units, so the PU suppliers will continue to converge in performance. It could be McLaren's year to step up, although they probably won't win the title - a 'buy' spread on their points might be profitable.0 -
The share price already reflects the market's view of ARM's value - and is a forward projection. That Son has put close to a 50% premium on that says to me that business as usual is unlikely to be the strategy. ARM has been doing a lot of deals in China. China wants self-sufficiency in semiconductor technology. I can't hep seeing the deal in that light, but have to assume that the government has put a block on any resale as to not do so would be extraordinary negligence. So, if that is off the table the next obvious place to look is royalty rates and licensing terms. That said, as Qualcomm can vouch, Asian anti-trust regulators are paying ever-closer attention to the terms of patent licensing deals local companies are being asked to pay and they are clamping down on them.ReggieCide said:
ARM's premium is Son's valuation of the future and ARM's potential place in it. Son is not about to dismantle the substance on which he valued ARM's worth today and potential tomorrow. You'll have to wait years to see whether Son got his sums right. Son is not a trader.SouthamObserver said:
As long as the government has got binding assurances, I can't see a problem. Softbank has matters.Richard_Nabavi said:Ah, ARM. My best ever investment, made shortly after it floated in 1998 at the ludicrously low valuation of (from memory) just over £200m. I couldn't understand what the investment banks advising on the float price were thinking - my back-of-the-envelope calculations made it worth at least 10 times that amount. In the event I sold out for 30 times what I'd invested.
There's no doubt that ARM is a class act, but the price Softbank are paying is very high - £24bn for a company which made just £414m profit before tax in 2015.
As so.
Incidentally, in the short term this is a bit of very welcome news to Phil Hammond. £24bn is a substantial injection of foreign exchange to offset the current account deficit (£32.6bn in Q1 2016).
The interesting thing to see in the short to medium term will be how this affects the kind of licences ARM offers. That premium has to be accounted for somehow. A profitable resale is one way, but assuming that is off the table the licensing policies and royalty rates look to be the obvious place to start making money back, as does the sale of non-core IP assets.
0 -
It's 5 that gets me. No action that might be regarded as aggressive physical behavior, regardless of whether that was the intent. If it was not my intent, how would I know not to do it? I know some things we don't think of as offensive or aggressive can reasonably be guessed to be potentially seen as such, but it seems so reflective of general infantilisation, where the right to not be offended is seen as the most crucial right a person can have, regardless of whether offence is a reasonable reaction and no matter if 'protecting' someone from such is disproportionate.PlatoSaid said:This still makes me smile
The behaviour rules for South Shields Labour meetings appear to ban almost everything that people do in meetings https://t.co/sJhRtLGlGG
4 is a good one too. No comments (presumably derogatory, but it doesn't specify) about age, gender, etc. Ok, mostly seems fine, although I guess that means saying 'I've been a Labour member for 35 years' would not be ok, as its drawing a comparison with others' lack of experience. But it includes 'individual personal politics' on the list. Age, gender, and personal politics? These things are of the same category?0 -
Yes, but the corollary of that is that prediction in the real world is so bloody difficult it is almost not worth trying (where are all the punters' Gulfstreams?) So it is entirely legitimate to say, let's wait for data rather than forecasts.viewcode said:
Prediction is part of this website: trying to establish (the probability of) events in the future is a necessary part of deciding whether a bet is value or not.grabcocque said:
I'm not denying some (or all) of these may occur. But they've not happened *yet*. And until they do, I think the mingmongs should really stop trying to invent crises where none exist.John_M said:Some points I've picked up from various ruminations and forecasts:
- A technical recession of around -0.8%. (IMF). Others have it slightly worse (e.g. Credit Suisse)
- Inflation to rise to ~ 2.2% in 2017 (S&P)
- A GDP opportunity cost of around 2% by 2018 (various)
- A 2.5% rise in unemployment by 2018 (various)
- A delay of 1-2 years before UK budget surplus implying Brexit PR cost of ~ £30 billion (IFS)
These are all decent examples.
JOOI, what happens if these things don't materialize? Does it then become Official the remainers were just a bunch of lying shitstacks all along?0 -
Can anyone identify Labour's arse and its elbow?PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.0 -
What do you think they are raising capital for? Plus, Son is a canny operator, mobile gaming is an easy come, easy go kind of market. Tencent offered to more than double SoftBank's money. I don't see anyone offering £48-£55bn for ARM.SouthamObserver said:
Last month Softbank sold its majority stake in Supercell 2 to Tencent.MaxPB said:
Son hasn't done any of this with previous SoftBank purchases. I don't see why he would start with ARM.Jonathan said:
Been destroyed over the past 20 years. Here's how it goes.MaxPB said:
Corporate R&D is poor in the UK.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
UK based company is merged or taken over by another entity headquarted elsewhere.
Two R&D centres in Europe
Company decides to start research in China.
Company decides to keep R&D near headquarters.
UK R&D unit closes.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/06/21/tencent-buys-clash-clans-maker-supercell-softbank/86169756/0 -
Which is what, exactly?Moses_ said:
I know.The_Apocalypse said:
I actually voted Remain!Moses_ said:
Well at least you must be very relieved you both voted out.The_Apocalypse said:
That's what I was thinking as well.Theuniondivvie said:
PB Brexitory thinks Juncker has credibility to lose? Wow.Charles said:
Not really. It will be ignored and he will lose credibility.YellowSubmarine said:
Seems like a good opening negotiating position from his point of view. Get used it.Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
You have just proved the point I was making in one single 4 worded response.0 -
That's the ADR. For the common shares, the buggest holder is Baillie Gifford (in Scotland) with 10%. Blackrock and Vanguard (US) are 10%. Capital is next with 4% (US). Legal & General is 3%. Norges Bank has 2%. Standard Life, Massachusetts Mutual, BNP, State Street, and a bunch of others have 1%.grabcocque said:
Here's ARM's major shareholders:Richard_Nabavi said:
True, do you know what proportion?rcs1000 said:£24bn doesn't come into the UK. ARM is largely owned by non-UK funds already.
http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=ARMH
Edgewood are by far the largest. They're based in Philadelphia.
But,
You then need to look at the underlying owners of the funds! How many of Baillie Giffords customers are British? They manage a lot of money for US endowments. And Blackrock - while American - has a big business doing Council pension schemes in the UK.
Basically, the ultimate beneficial ownership of ARM is incredibly global.0 -
''As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think.''
The report I read said ARM is going to create at least 4,000 UK jobs at its Cambridge site.
Huge win win for UK PLC. Post Brexit.
0 -
It is in the UK's national interest that it happens. We were told that leaving the EU would not have a negative affect on EU-funded academic research funding, so we don't have to worry about that. But the government should put more in on top. Our universities are a major national asset and should be treated as such.DecrepitJohnL said:
Remember George Osborne was cutting UK research funds while the Chinese are massively ramping up theirs (SeanT sent many reports iirc). Whether this will be restored, as well as substitution of lost EU funding, who knows?SouthamObserver said:
It has been significantly downgraded in many UK academic institutions, with funding either frozen or cut. The decline in the UK's position in the university rankings over recent years reflects this to an extent. Hopefully, one part of Brexit vote - and the increased government spending we are going to see as a result - will be a restoration of funding for our world class universities.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
0 -
Someone below said that was on the cards anyway - but it's good it will continue I guess.taffys said:''As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think.''
The report I read said ARM is going to create at least 4,000 UK jobs at its Cambridge site.
Huge win win for UK PLC. Post Brexit.0 -
That was already happening. I was there last year and was given a full site visit and a presentation on the plans. What's good is that Brexit has not changed any of it, though given that much of ARM's client base is non-European that is not really a surprise.taffys said:''As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think.''
The report I read said ARM is going to create at least 4,000 UK jobs at its Cambridge site.
Huge win win for UK PLC. Post Brexit.
0 -
Imagine this place if those rules were in force.kle4 said:
It's 5 that gets me. No action that might be regarded as aggressive physical behavior, regardless of whether that was the intent. If it was not my intent, how would I know not to do it? I know some things we don't think of as offensive or aggressive can reasonably be guessed to be potentially seen as such, but it seems so reflective of general infantilisation, where the right to not be offended is seen as the most crucial right a person can have, regardless of whether offence is a reasonable reaction and no matter if 'protecting' someone from such is disproportionate.PlatoSaid said:This still makes me smile
The behaviour rules for South Shields Labour meetings appear to ban almost everything that people do in meetings https://t.co/sJhRtLGlGG
0 -
Completely agreed. I'd also like to see fees reductions for fields in which we have a shortage of workers.SouthamObserver said:
It is in the UK's national interest that it happens. We were told that leaving the EU would not have a negative affect on EU-funded academic research funding, so we don't have to worry about that. But the government should put more in on top. Our universities are a major national asset and should be treated as such.DecrepitJohnL said:
Remember George Osborne was cutting UK research funds while the Chinese are massively ramping up theirs (SeanT sent many reports iirc). Whether this will be restored, as well as substitution of lost EU funding, who knows?SouthamObserver said:
It has been significantly downgraded in many UK academic institutions, with funding either frozen or cut. The decline in the UK's position in the university rankings over recent years reflects this to an extent. Hopefully, one part of Brexit vote - and the increased government spending we are going to see as a result - will be a restoration of funding for our world class universities.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.0 -
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between themPlatoSaid said:
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.Sandpit said:
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heathrow-runway-ruling-may-come-in-weeks-says-grayling-nkxvkz3sq
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?0 -
The devil is in the detail. And detail takes time....OllyT said:
Fair enough, it was a genuine question. But if we can't actually enter any new trade deals for the next 3 years say, why all the breathless excitement about Australia or wherever rushing to do a deal now? I can only assume it is because, even if with 2 very willing participants, it is going to take 3 years? Again genuine questionsMaxPB said:
He is not correct, the UK cannot unilaterally enter a trade deal outside of the EU. We can talk to whoever we want. This is like a wife to whom we've served divorce papers crying foul after we've re-entered the dating scene despite the divorce not being finalised.OllyT said:
OK but is he technically correct that a member country cannot unilaterally open trade negotiations with a non-EU country? If so what sanctions are available if we break that undertaking?Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
As we are going to be a member for another two and a half years at least will both sides then feel free to ignore any EU regulations that don't suit during that period?
I know PB will be full of jingoistic bravado about telling johnny-foreigner to bugger off but, in the real world, I suspect the situation is more complicated.0 -
Since the available data shows virtually all largest ARM shareholders as investment trusts or similar, this is really is the guess to outguess all other guessesrcs1000 said:
It wouldn't be difficult for me to work out (thanks Bloomberg!), but it would be time consuming. I'm going to guess that it's 33% UK owned, 67% foreign.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, do you know what proportion?rcs1000 said:£24bn doesn't come into the UK. ARM is largely owned by non-UK funds already.
0 -
Yeah, Brexit has absolutely no connection with the deal whatsoever, except that the fall in sterling has made picking up UK assets (especially UK assets which earn nearly all their revenues in foreign exchange) cheaper.SouthamObserver said:
That was already happening. I was there last year and was given a full site visit and a presentation on the plans. What's good is that Brexit has not changed any of it, though given that much of ARM's client base is non-European that is not really a surprise.taffys said:''As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think.''
The report I read said ARM is going to create at least 4,000 UK jobs at its Cambridge site.
Huge win win for UK PLC. Post Brexit.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, I'll have to wait and see how the numbers look, both on the spreads and in my Ladbrokes account.
I'm not doing as well as I should be (accidentally put too small a stake on the Perez bet in Baku). One singular moment aside, this season's been pretty disappointing, from a betting perspective.
Edited extra bit: on what I plan to watch for in the 2017 spreads:
Alonso, Verstappen, Ricciardo
If engines converge, a credible scenario, then the advantage moves to those who are aerodynamically strong. Obviously, that includes Mercedes, but they'll be top of the prediction tree and the price may be long (but selling them would be rather brave too).0 -
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?Sandpit said:
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between themPlatoSaid said:
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.Sandpit said:
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heathrow-runway-ruling-may-come-in-weeks-says-grayling-nkxvkz3sq
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?0 -
Or Boris Island. Either would be fine.Sandpit said:
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between themPlatoSaid said:
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.Sandpit said:
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heathrow-runway-ruling-may-come-in-weeks-says-grayling-nkxvkz3sq
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?
I like the idea of a hyperloop between the two airports. (Quiet Mr Jessop)0 -
But what a moment!Morris_Dancer said:One singular moment aside, this season's been pretty disappointing, from a betting perspective.
0 -
Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.rcs1000 said:
Houseprices tend to be slow motion car crashes generally. People rarely cut the selling price on their property sharply. I will be very interested to see transaction numbers over the next few months, as it would be better to see a sharp drop but volumes holding up, than a shallow fall on minimal volume, which would suggest that cheapness of sterling is not bringing new buyers in.MaxPB said:
All I would say is that none of that has actually happened yet. All we can see so far is the fall in Sterling. Very little else has changed. Even the house price indicators are not as negative as they were expected to be.John_M said:
Some points I've picked up from various ruminations and forecasts:grabcocque said:
OH NO BREXIT HAS MADE THE UK A MORE ATTRACTIVE TARGET FOR INVESTMENT! WE'RE DOOOOOOOOMED!MaxPB said:
Indeed, the idea that this is a cut price deal is a fantasy. This is a 70% premium on ARM's pre-referendum price and even after adjusting for a 10% reduction in the value of Sterling it is still a 54% premium.grabcocque said:
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.Jonathan said:Shame about ARM holdings.
The Brexit fire sale begins.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
Perhaps now is time for sulky remainers to STFU until we get some *actual* bad economic news. Perhaps the collapse of the Italian and German banking sectors can be blamed on Brexit I dunno.
- A technical recession of around -0.8%. (IMF). Others have it slightly worse (e.g. Credit Suisse)
- Inflation to rise to ~ 2.2% in 2017 (S&P)
- A GDP opportunity cost of around 2% by 2018 (various)
- A 2.5% rise in unemployment by 2018 (various)
- A delay of 1-2 years before UK budget surplus implying Brexit PR cost of ~ £30 billion (IFS)
These are all decent examples.0 -
Twelve new runways at heathrow, nine at Gatwick, six at Stansted and Luton to be demolished and replaced with a Virgin Galactic spaceport.Sandpit said:
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between themPlatoSaid said:
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.Sandpit said:
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heathrow-runway-ruling-may-come-in-weeks-says-grayling-nkxvkz3sq
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?0 -
Yep. Spot on.grabcocque said:
It seems the average sulky remainer thinks that two global megacorps can have their M&E teams put together one of the largest acquisitions in corporate history in little over a fortnight.MaxPB said:
This isn't a cut price deal though. SoftBank are paying a huge premium both dollar adjusted and in Sterling. I very much doubt the weakness of Sterling had much to do with this, Son has probably been planning it for a while and weak Sterling has just brought it into play sooner.YellowSubmarine said:
It's more complicated than that. To what extent are these sort of global capital flows precisely what was being voted against ? Does the currency devaluation make them more likely ? Outside the eurosphere will these capital flows have garage social consequences. Brexit is a gargantuan does of creative destruction.grabcocque said:
This thing where hyper-sulking remainers are DESPERATE for everything to go down the pan is frankly demeaning.Jonathan said:Shame about ARM holdings.
The Brexit fire sale begins.
That you choose to use as your example the largest foreign investment into the UK in corporate history as some kind of suggestion that things are going bad just makes you look like a simpleton.
These people are basically idiots.0 -
Build five new cities in the next 4 years as well Theresa, we need houses.0
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Re the Labour contest and the assumption that if Corbyn wins there will be some kind of Labour split, shorthanded as SDP v2. This shorthand implies certain things - such as seeking electoral pacts and ultimately association with Lib Dems and the major protagonists never coming back to Labour - but assumed to be on a much bigger scale than in 1981. Are they safe assumptions or is there a more 'left' way of splitting? Without researching what would need to happen for other possibilities to come into play, I give some brainstorming thoughts on other things that might be considered singly or in combination, and what might come from those. To be discussed / shot down as you will:
More leftish ways of splitting than by forming a brand new party. One or more may apply to different MPs:
- Taking the SDLP whip, how does this sit with any agreement between SDLP /Labour?
- Becoming Indepedent Labour and having only a loose association between members, no formal whipping or party structures.
- Taking over some existing Labour structure, for instance the Cooperative party, and demerging or running as more separate.
What do the above mean in terms of party funding and formal opposition (assuming 120 MPs even wish to split into a single body, which is a bigger step than a vote of no confidence and leadership election trigger)?
Could the splitters, even if they do join into a formal party, do things in such a way as to align themselves back to the Labour party in terms of electoral pact making? Does whatever Watson was trying to put together the week before form any kind of start point for this? This would mean dealing with a Corbyn Labour at a time of rancour overdrive, but is a deal splitting seats between Progressive Labour and original Labour (perhaps held seat protection for the incumbent party whilst held and a 50/50 split of target seats to be alternated at elections) in any way reachable? Could this be done for competition in elections or unilaterally, without any promise of coalition post-election (giving Progressives freedom to deal with Lib Dems as per the situation on the ground).
Could such a route ever be made to work? The risks are obvious - I can see writ big the Salmond/Miliband poster with Corbyn (or successors) as Salmond, both in advertising terms and in political reality. It would be a kind of half-escape, but if the ultimate aim is to put Labour back together again, which I would think is still the desire of many, is there any milage in taking such risks?
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I reckon HS2 will be canned and replaced with Manchester-Leeds HS3 which frankly makes a lot more sense.kle4 said:
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?Sandpit said:
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between themPlatoSaid said:
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.Sandpit said:
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heathrow-runway-ruling-may-come-in-weeks-says-grayling-nkxvkz3sq
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?0 -
I don't think it has in this case. The USD adjusted premium is still 50% on the pre-referendum price. ARM shares are up as much as Sterling is down (pre-bid, of course).Richard_Nabavi said:
Yeah, Brexit has absolutely no connection with the deal whatsoever, except that the fall in sterling has made picking up UK assets (especially UK assets which earn nearly all their revenues in foreign exchange) cheaper.SouthamObserver said:
That was already happening. I was there last year and was given a full site visit and a presentation on the plans. What's good is that Brexit has not changed any of it, though given that much of ARM's client base is non-European that is not really a surprise.taffys said:''As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think.''
The report I read said ARM is going to create at least 4,000 UK jobs at its Cambridge site.
Huge win win for UK PLC. Post Brexit.0 -
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.runnymede said:Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
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Mr. Grabcocque, I'd be surprised, but think that would have a lot of support up here. Most HS2 controversy in Yorkshire is from people annoyed it isn't going near/through their patch.
Mr. kle4, I know
That alone means I'll finish the season ahead even if I get every other tip from now on wrong. Wish I'd put more than a pittance on it, but still.0 -
I wonder what category 'looking at your watch' comes underkle4 said:
It's 5 that gets me. No action that might be regarded as aggressive physical behavior, regardless of whether that was the intent. If it was not my intent, how would I know not to do it? I know some things we don't think of as offensive or aggressive can reasonably be guessed to be potentially seen as such, but it seems so reflective of general infantilisation, where the right to not be offended is seen as the most crucial right a person can have, regardless of whether offence is a reasonable reaction and no matter if 'protecting' someone from such is disproportionate.PlatoSaid said:This still makes me smile
The behaviour rules for South Shields Labour meetings appear to ban almost everything that people do in meetings https://t.co/sJhRtLGlGG
4 is a good one too. No comments (presumably derogatory, but it doesn't specify) about age, gender, etc. Ok, mostly seems fine, although I guess that means saying 'I've been a Labour member for 35 years' would not be ok, as its drawing a comparison with others' lack of experience. But it includes 'individual personal politics' on the list. Age, gender, and personal politics? These things are of the same category? 0 -
The Chinese really want semiconductor technology self-sufficiency. I think they would very happily pay a very decent premium on top of £24 billion to get their hands on ARM. However, I cannot imagine that the government has not factored that into their assessment of the deal and on any enforceable assurances they have asked for. If ARM does end up in Chinese hands, there is no doubt that it will end up in China.MaxPB said:
What do you think they are raising capital for? Plus, Son is a canny operator, mobile gaming is an easy come, easy go kind of market. Tencent offered to more than double SoftBank's money. I don't see anyone offering £48-£55bn for ARM.SouthamObserver said:
Last month Softbank sold its majority stake in Supercell 2 to Tencent.MaxPB said:
Son hasn't done any of this with previous SoftBank purchases. I don't see why he would start with ARM.Jonathan said:
Been destroyed over the past 20 years. Here's how it goes.MaxPB said:
Corporate R&D is poor in the UK.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
UK based company is merged or taken over by another entity headquarted elsewhere.
Two R&D centres in Europe
Company decides to start research in China.
Company decides to keep R&D near headquarters.
UK R&D unit closes.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/06/21/tencent-buys-clash-clans-maker-supercell-softbank/86169756/
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I'd agree with HamiltonAce's point below about UK Uni R&D generally being very poor at commercialisation. There seems to be no shortage of government money to buy research equipment (normally German or Japanese made) but then little is done with it once the shiny photo ops are past.SouthamObserver said:
It is in the UK's national interest that it happens. We were told that leaving the EU would not have a negative affect on EU-funded academic research funding, so we don't have to worry about that. But the government should put more in on top. Our universities are a major national asset and should be treated as such.DecrepitJohnL said:
Remember George Osborne was cutting UK research funds while the Chinese are massively ramping up theirs (SeanT sent many reports iirc). Whether this will be restored, as well as substitution of lost EU funding, who knows?SouthamObserver said:
It has been significantly downgraded in many UK academic institutions, with funding either frozen or cut. The decline in the UK's position in the university rankings over recent years reflects this to an extent. Hopefully, one part of Brexit vote - and the increased government spending we are going to see as a result - will be a restoration of funding for our world class universities.grabcocque said:
Given the UK (well, England) has three of the world's top ten research universities, it seems unlikely that research is being neglected.stodge said:
R&D has been neglected for far too long and is one of the main reasons for our stagnant productivity along with the inexhaustible supply of cheap labour. It's the reverse of the economics of the Cold War years when the normal supply of economic migrants and cheap labour from eastern Europe was cut off.hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
Probably much more money needs to be focussed on knowledge transfer partnerships between unis and small to medium firms and on startups.
Also Jonathan's comment about UK corporate R&D centres getting merged out of existence is very true and seems to live my career.
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The National Front are anti-Semitic and their previous leader regarded the killing of Jews in 1939-45 as a minor footnote in the history of WW2. No self-respecting Jew will vote for the NF.Dromedary said:
When did he get his HGV licence?Cyclefree said:One final point: the Nice killer moved to France in 2005. He had no skills.
The National Front get a lot of Jewish votes (which is not to say that some French Jews don't oppose it) and is strongly pro-Zionist, and Le Pen would not initiate any punitive measures against Jews. Against Muslims (the detested Arabs), yes.daodao said:
The more attacks there are, the more likely it is for Marine Le Pen to win in 2017 and initiate punitive measures against residents of France (Muslims/Jews, mainly of North African origin) who hold views that are alien to European Christian values.
In addition, most of the Jews living in France today are of North African origin and are loathed just as much as Muslim Arabs by indigenous French folk. They used to live in the same neighbourhoods until the Muslims, as they became more islamicised, took a dislike to them too.
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I don't buy this. Why would the Chinese pay billions for something they could steal with a far smaller investment of time and money?SouthamObserver said:
The share price already reflects the market's view of ARM's value - and is a forward projection. That Son has put close to a 50% premium on that says to me that business as usual is unlikely to be the strategy. ARM has been doing a lot of deals in China. China wants self-sufficiency in semiconductor technology. I can't hep seeing the deal in that light, but have to assume that the government has put a block on any resale as to not do so would be extraordinary negligence. So, if that is off the table the next obvious place to look is royalty rates and licensing terms. That said, as Qualcomm can vouch, Asian anti-trust regulators are paying ever-closer attention to the terms of patent licensing deals local companies are being asked to pay and they are clamping down on them.ReggieCide said:
ARM's premium is Son's valuation of the future and ARM's potential place in it. Son is not about to dismantle the substance on which he valued ARM's worth today and potential tomorrow. You'll have to wait years to see whether Son got his sums right. Son is not a trader.SouthamObserver said:
As long as the government has got binding assurances, I can't see a problem. Softbank has matters.Richard_Nabavi said:Ah, ARM. My best ever investment, made shortly after it floated in 1998 at the ludicrously low valuation of (from memory) just over £200m. I couldn't understand what the investment banks advising on the float price were thinking - my back-of-the-envelope calculations made it worth at least 10 times that amount. In the event I sold out for 30 times what I'd invested.
There's no doubt that ARM is a class act, but the price Softbank are paying is very high - £24bn for a company which made just £414m profit before tax in 2015.
As so.
Incidentally, in the short term this is a bit of very welcome news to Phil Hammond. £24bn is a substantial injection of foreign exchange to offset the current account deficit (£32.6bn in Q1 2016).
The interesting thing to see in the short to medium term will be how this affects the kind of licences ARM offers. That premium has to be accounted for somehow. A profitable resale is one way, but assuming that is off the table the licensing policies and royalty rates look to be the obvious place to start making money back, as does the sale of non-core IP assets.0 -
HS2 still seems to be alive right now. How long for? I've no feeling for this at all.kle4 said:
Any chance she could stop throwing money down a hole, I mean HS2, as well?Sandpit said:
Grr. Come on Theresa, just bloody announce it. Two new runways at LHR and one more at LGW please, preferably with a maglev or Hyperloop running between themPlatoSaid said:
There's a Times article today saying LHR decision could be weeks away. I remain sceptical.Sandpit said:
Ha ha, a trick my arse. This vote has been postponed so many times, let's just bloody get on with building the new boats. Let's get some more things on the postponed list going too - yes, Heathrow, that means you!PlatoSaid said:From Red Box email re Trident
"Corbyn tells The Guardian today that he will vote against it, adding: "I've been involved in peace transformation all of my life, and I think we've got an opportunity to show leadership in the world." Clive Lewis, shadow defence secretary, and Emily Thornberry, shadow foreign secretary, described the vote as a "contemptible trick" and will abstain.
Dearie me.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/heathrow-runway-ruling-may-come-in-weeks-says-grayling-nkxvkz3sq
Are we trying to show the World we're open for business, or not?0 -
The ARM deal will have been In the works a long time before Brexit looked likely. The Brexit angle is that it wasn't cancelled because of it. ARM doesn't have a particular exposure to the EU beyond possibly missing out on EU blue sky research projects. There owners can always move operations later if they think Brexit holds them back0
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@MaxPB . Regarding house price prediction, it's too early to tell.
Let's have a quick look at the indicators, in descending order of immediacy
* Rightmove asking price index: asking prices for houses
* RICS Residential Market Survey: estate agent surveyors opinions of prices falling/rising
* Halifax and Nationwide indices: mortgages have been approved
* Bank of England mortgage approvals: mortgages that have been granted
* Land Registry index: sale price for houses
If you don't count auction properties, cash purchases and online agencies, to buy a house requires placing a house on sale at an estate agent, getting an offer accepted, getting a mortgage approved, doing the conveyancing, exchange, register sale. That's not an instantaneous process and takes about three-six months from beginning to end. Consequently many of the indices lag, thus
* Rightmove asking price index: lags by about a month
* RICS Residential Market Survey: lags by about a month
* Halifax and Nationwide indices: lags by about two-three months
* Bank of England mortgage approvals: lags by about three-six months
* Land Registry index: lags by about three-six months
There are numerous caveats to this: some indices don't count auction properties or cash purchases, there is a further lag caused by publication delays, some transactions (esp intra-family) don't get registered. There are also other indices that I don't know much about, like construction indices, housebuilder share prices, auction activity.
The early data from Rightmove and RICS is a fall, with anecdotal pointing to about a 5% fall, which is big...but it is too early to tell: it may be a momentary blip or the beginning of another 2008, we don't know yet. The picture should be clear around January/February 2017
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Since ARM is fabless it has basically no supply chain to manage. So it's entirely export-focused, which makes the recent realignment of GBP works almost entirely in their favour.FF43 said:The ARM deal will have been In the works a long time before Brexit looked likely. The Brexit angle is that it wasn't cancelled because of it. ARM doesn't have a particular exposure to the EU beyond possibly missing out on EU blue sky research projects. There owners can always move operations later if they think Brexit holds them back
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Which is odd as you don't need to be in the EU to be in Horizon. I think some are overreacting.rottenborough said:
Presumably the call was referring to R&D that is at tech transfer/commercialisation stage?hamiltonace said:I had a call on Friday night from a business partner. He told me the UK Government is looking to throw money at UK R&D projects. The main problem is there is so little capacity in the UK to properly use the money.
I have spent considerable time sorting out one failed Uni project after another where a group of smart PHDs have wasted years and millions on a nice idea bit with no real focus on commercialisation.
ARM is the kind of company we need to keep going.
There is going to a bloody massive R&D shortfall in universities for more pure/pre-commercial research stuff thanks to us being out of EU and Horizon. Already, according to Will Hutton, UK unis look for EU partners are getting the cold shoulder for co-operative projects cos they don't think we'll be around in 2 or 3 years time.0 -
Stealing only helps domestically and even domestically the Chinese courts are getting a lot more forceful in enforcing IP rights. The win rate for foreign plaintiffs in patent cases at the Beijing IP court last year was 65-0.ReggieCide said:
I don't buy this. Why would the Chinese pay billions for something they could steal with a far smaller investment of time and money?SouthamObserver said:
The share price already reflects the market's view of ARM's value - and is a forward projection. That Son has put close to a 50% premium on that says to me that business as usual is unlikely to be the strategy. ARM has been doing a lot of deals in China. China wants self-sufficiency in semiconductor technology. I can't hep seeing the deal in that light, but have to assume that the government has put a block on any resale as to not do so would be extraordinary negligence. So, if that is off the table the next obvious place to look is royalty rates and licensing terms. That said, as Qualcomm can vouch, Asian anti-trust regulators are paying ever-closer attention to the terms of patent licensing deals local companies are being asked to pay and they are clamping down on them.ReggieCide said:
ARM's premium is Son's valuation of the future and ARM's potential place in it. Son is not about to dismantle the substance on which he valued ARM's worth today and potential tomorrow. You'll have to wait years to see whether Son got his sums right. Son is not a trader.SouthamObserver said:
As long as the government has got binding assurances, I can't see a problem. Softbank has matters.Richard_Nabavi said:Ah, ARM. My best ever investment, made shortly after it floated in 1998 at the ludicrously low valuation of (from memory) just over £200m. I couldn't understand what the investment banks advising on the float price were thinking - my back-of-the-envelope calculations made it worth at least 10 times that amount. In the event I sold out for 30 times what I'd invested.
There's no doubt that ARM is a class act, but the price Softbank are paying is very high - £24bn for a company which made just £414m profit before tax in 2015.
As so.
Incidentally, in the short term this is a bit of very welcome news to Phil Hammond. £24bn is a substantial injection of foreign exchange to offset the current account deficit (£32.6bn in Q1 2016).
The interesting thing to see in the short to medium term will be how this affects the kind of licences ARM offers. That premium has to be accounted for somehow. A profitable resale is one way, but assuming that is off the table the licensing policies and royalty rates look to be the obvious place to start making money back, as does the sale of non-core IP assets.
0 -
Spot on, and virtually impossible to identify.rcs1000 said:
That's the ADR. For the common shares, the buggest holder is Baillie Gifford (in Scotland) with 10%. Blackrock and Vanguard (US) are 10%. Capital is next with 4% (US). Legal & General is 3%. Norges Bank has 2%. Standard Life, Massachusetts Mutual, BNP, State Street, and a bunch of others have 1%.grabcocque said:
Here's ARM's major shareholders:Richard_Nabavi said:
True, do you know what proportion?rcs1000 said:£24bn doesn't come into the UK. ARM is largely owned by non-UK funds already.
http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=ARMH
Edgewood are by far the largest. They're based in Philadelphia.
But,
You then need to look at the underlying owners of the funds! How many of Baillie Giffords customers are British? They manage a lot of money for US endowments. And Blackrock - while American - has a big business doing Council pension schemes in the UK.
Basically, the ultimate beneficial ownership of ARM is incredibly global.0 -
Just remember that China want a CISC competitor, they'd be better off buying AMD which holds one of two global x86 licences and the patents for x86-64. In terms of what China wants to achieve, ARM doesn't make a lot of sense. AMD does, which is why they have been sniffing around there for a while.SouthamObserver said:The Chinese really want semiconductor technology self-sufficiency. I think they would very happily pay a very decent premium on top of £24 billion to get their hands on ARM. However, I cannot imagine that the government has not factored that into their assessment of the deal and on any enforceable assurances they have asked for. If ARM does end up in Chinese hands, there is no doubt that it will end up in China.
0 -
Anecdotal evidence from the sandpit - a noticeable effect from overseas property buyers (mainly Arabs, Russians, Africans, Indians) noting that London just got 10% cheaper when buying in dollars. The key will be if they start to think London's overvalued - which it is, surely?rcs1000 said:
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.runnymede said:Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
0 -
John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)0 -
Which was sort of my point. People seem to be banging on about the dire pain we're currently taking. It's far too soon to come to any conclusions.viewcode said:@MaxPB . Regarding house price prediction, it's too early to tell.
Let's have a quick look at the indicators, in descending order of immediacy
* Rightmove asking price index: asking prices for houses
* RICS Residential Market Survey: estate agent surveyors opinions of prices falling/rising
* Halifax and Nationwide indices: mortgages have been approved
* Bank of England mortgage approvals: mortgages that have been granted
* Land Registry index: sale price for houses
If you don't count auction properties, cash purchases and online agencies, to buy a house requires placing a house on sale at an estate agent, getting an offer accepted, getting a mortgage approved, doing the conveyancing, exchange, register sale. That's not an instantaneous process and takes about three-six months from beginning to end. Consequently many of the indices lag, thus
* Rightmove asking price index: lags by about a month
* RICS Residential Market Survey: lags by about a month
* Halifax and Nationwide indices: lags by about two-three months
* Bank of England mortgage approvals: lags by about three-six months
* Land Registry index: lags by about three-six months
There are numerous caveats to this: some indices don't count auction properties or cash purchases, there is a further lag caused by publication delays, some transactions (esp intra-family) don't get registered. There are also other indices that I don't know much about, like construction indices, housebuilder share prices, auction activity.
The early data from Rightmove and RICS is a fall, with anecdotal pointing to about a 5% fall, which is big...but it is too early to tell: it may be a momentary blip or the beginning of another 2008, we don't know yet. The picture should be clear around January/February 20170 -
True. Their costs are mainly in UK salaries that have seen a cut of 15% relative to their international revenues.grabcocque said:
Since ARM is fabless it has basically no supply chain to manage. So it's entirely export-focused, which makes the recent realignment of GBP works almost entirely in their favour.FF43 said:The ARM deal will have been In the works a long time before Brexit looked likely. The Brexit angle is that it wasn't cancelled because of it. ARM doesn't have a particular exposure to the EU beyond possibly missing out on EU blue sky research projects. There owners can always move operations later if they think Brexit holds them back
Actually, I think Brexit is a wash as far as this deal is concerned, which itself is arguably +1 to Leave.0 -
Seems a bit optimistic of John Kerry!rcs1000 said:John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)0 -
My local Knight Frank keeps sending me "Price Reduction!" emails. Last year, at the peak of the market, a 1,200 square foot three bedroom flat, in the unfashionable Golders Green side of Hampstead (albeit still NW3) went for £2.8m.Sandpit said:
Anecdotal evidence from the sandpit - a noticeable effect from overseas property buyers (mainly Arabs, Russians, Africans, Indians) noting that London just got 10% cheaper when buying in dollars. The key will be if they start to think London's overvalued - which it is, surely?rcs1000 said:
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.runnymede said:Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
I reckon it'd be lucky to get £2m today.0 -
Hopefully Theresa has the good sense not to join it.rcs1000 said:John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)0 -
No doubt TSE will be along shortly to tell you that pb Tories are the world's finest lovers. Based on a sample size of one.....The_Apocalypse said:
I know some PB Tories tend to get elections spot on. But I am not sure their magical powers extend to other areas of expertise....John_M said:
Don't think there are many miserable people on here. However, this is PB. Ever watchful. Ever judging. Often completely wrong (apart from a sizeable contingent of PB tories noted for their infallibility).The_Apocalypse said:Tattoos are a form of 'defacing' yourselves and beards are terrible, apparently. My god - I hope I'm not as miserable as some of you guys when I get old! I don't have any tattoos and am fairly neutral on the subject of beards. But how others choose to dress isn't really of my concern. And I don't know why it would concern others that much either.
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This was already in the price on FridayRichard_Nabavi said:
Yeah, Brexit has absolutely no connection with the deal whatsoever, except that the fall in sterling has made picking up UK assets (especially UK assets which earn nearly all their revenues in foreign exchange) cheaper.SouthamObserver said:
That was already happening. I was there last year and was given a full site visit and a presentation on the plans. What's good is that Brexit has not changed any of it, though given that much of ARM's client base is non-European that is not really a surprise.taffys said:''As regards the importance of ARM to the UK, I don't see any problem here. SoftBank is a hybrid between a venture capital/investment fund, and a hi-tech conglomerate. They'll leave ARM pretty much alone, I think.''
The report I read said ARM is going to create at least 4,000 UK jobs at its Cambridge site.
Huge win win for UK PLC. Post Brexit.0 -
So: we should leave the EU and not have a free trade deal with the US?Luckyguy1983 said:
Hopefully Theresa has the good sense not to join it.rcs1000 said:John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)0 -
It's just rhetoric tbh, they want free trade to be Obama's legacy. I don't see how it gets through the EU before 1. Obama leaves office and 2. Before we leave the EU. It's basically wishful thinking.rcs1000 said:John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)0 -
Um, yes. I find our trade with the US to be wholly satisfactory.rcs1000 said:
So: we should leave the EU and not have a free trade deal with the US?Luckyguy1983 said:
Hopefully Theresa has the good sense not to join it.rcs1000 said:John Kerry has just come out and said that TTIP will be completed this year!
Here's an intriguing thought. Do the US and Germany want TTIP signed now, with us being on board and therefore helpful, because TTIP wouldn't pass with us not a member of the EU?
This would also suggest that we'd grandfather straight into TTIP upon Brexit.
(However, I suspect this means that the appetite for a custom US-UK deal would be quite limited.)0 -
In all seriousness, it is a worry if politics, be in internal party politics or more openly adversarial politics, becomes poisonous as a result of extreme, aggressive, dismissive and polarising behaviour. But a worry though that is, robust political debate and discussion is a vital element in a vibrant democracy, internally among parties and otherwise.PlatoSaid said:
I wonder what category 'looking at your watch' comes underkle4 said:
It'PlatoSaid said:This still makes me smile
The behaviour rules for South Shields Labour meetings appear to ban almost everything that people do in meetings https://t.co/sJhRtLGlGG
As I like going back to, paraphrased from a legal judgement:
The exclusion of all emotive, non-rational expression would be a mistake as the most opprobrious insult may form part of an otherwise serious criticism of a political figure. Even were it possible to separate such expression from rational discourse, it would be wrong to allow its proscription because if speakers could be punished each time they included a colourful, non-rational epithet, much valuable speech would be inhibited. Some margin should be allowed for invective and exaggeration, even if that means some apparently worthless comments are as fully protected as a carefully balanced argument.
Being overly restrictive with the albeit positive intent of prohibiting a negative atmosphere that would itself inhibit debate, can seem a small thing compared to actual restriction of language as above but it is tangentially related, and can have larger, more harmful impacts upon the political discourse within a party.
And ultimately, better you learn to be able to put up with people shaking their heads and tutting while you speak, than others should feel limited in what they are able to express. If the fear is that if you permit such reactions then a hostile environment would ensue as a result, well, the problem is not really the rules of debate, is it?0 -
Got any data that shows that?rcs1000 said:
Prime London is where there is the greatest likelihood of a car crash. And it matters because money flowing into the London property market (both commercial and residential) is one of the things that enables us to run our huge current account deficit.runnymede said:Outside London, the exchange rate is really not going to be very important.
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