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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » France’s next president: Hollande is sunk but who will follow him?
Complacency has been the bane of the established political class across the Western world these last few years; a bad habit it doesn’t seem capable of kicking. Time and again, outsiders have shaken up the order, from Tsipras in Greece to Labour electing Corbyn to Trump taking the Republican nomination to Bernie Sanders running Hillary close to the UK voting for Brexit.
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I don't follow the Bayrou thing. If Hollande is going down hard then the centre-right get tbrough to the second round. Who cares who leada the first round?0
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My sense from watching various interviews is that Le Pen thinks she has the measure of Sarkozy and would enjoy running against him.0
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Why the rebranding of the centre right in France?0
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Sad to see a world-class company such as this falling into foreign hands.JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
It's incredible to think that Warren East, its driving force for many years in creating such enormous wealth, was awarded a CBE when so many two bit popstars/ actors/ other celebs receive their gongs for achieving next to nothing. It makes a complete mockery of the entire honours system.0 -
That is what happens when the pound slides by 10% .JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.0 -
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.0 -
Juppe.
The Front National just has too much baggage (at the moment) to win 50%+1 in the second round of a presidential election, and Le Pen lacks something that candidates like Hofer seem to have in Austria.0 -
Useless fact: the United Kingdom is the only country in the world to have both a female head of state and a female head of government at the present time.0
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Off Topic (sort of)
Can it really be true, as reported, that balding French President Francois Hollande spends 120,000 Euros per annum looking after his hair, equivalent to around 4 times the average annual earnings of a French worker? ...... Long live Socialism!0 -
To be fair, ARM was over 50%-foreign owned when it was formed - I think 5% VLSI, 47.5% Apple, 47.5% Acorn.peter_from_putney said:
Sad to see a world-class company such as this falling into foreign hands.JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
It's incredible to think that Warren East, its driving force for many years in creating such enormous wealth, was awarded a CBE when so many two bit popstars/ actors/ other celebs receive their gongs for achieving next to nothing. It makes a complete mockery of the entire honours system.
The ARMS shares are even said by some to have saved Apple in the early 1990s when they required a cash injection.
Also note: ARM had big expansion plans, including new offices on Fulbourn Road. They said they were going to double the workforce there last year - so the new owner's commitment to double the workforce is only a commitment to keep to current plans.0 -
Any fool can waste money. Big fools can persuade themselves that they're not wasting it.peter_from_putney said:Off Topic (sort of)
Can it really be true, as reported, that balding French President Francois Hollande spends 120,000 Euros per annum looking after his hair, equivalent to around 4 times the average annual earnings of a French worker? ...... Long live Socialism!
Genius fools waste other peoples' money, and persuade them they're not wasting it.0 -
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than its intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?0 -
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.0 -
ARM would be worth an absolute fortune to China and has done a lot of business there recently. I wonder if Softbank is a staging post. The Chinese have been trying to acquire a major semiconductor company for a number of years, but have always struggled to get past regulatory authority concerns. Tsinghua tried with Micron last year, for example, but were beaten back before even submitting a formal bid.0
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ARM isn't the first Cambridge-based high tech company to be swallowed up by the Japanese, Brother acquired world-leading Domino Printing Sciences last year, and I feel sure it won't be the last.0
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I don't suppose the retail consumer experience is of much relevance here but having just paid the rapacious termination fees and finally escaped my phone contract, I can report that Softbank are a bunch of thieves.JosiasJessop said:I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
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The UK government should, at the very least, want to get very strong reassurances about potential sell-ons to, say, a Chinese entity.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than its intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
There's no particular reason for the company to remain UK-based as it does very little manufacturing.
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Heh. Indeed. A mate was rather depressed by that move. It's become known to some as the Japanese pizza house.peter_from_putney said:ARM isn't the first Cambridge-based high tech company to be swallowed up by the Japanese, Brother acquired world-leading Domino Printing Sciences last year, and I feel sure it won't be the last.
But ARM's at another scale. If you have a mobile phone, you're almost certain to have an ARM chip inside it, even if the chip is made by Apple, Qualcomm, Broadcom, etc. They also have significant markets in other arenas.
Over 10 billion ARM chips are made each year.0 -
A quick way for Softbank to start generating a premium return on this premium purchase is to change ARM's IP licensing model - which up to now has been comparatively generous and very flexible - and to look at selling off non-core patents. There'd be a lot of Chinese interest in those.edmundintokyo said:
I don't suppose the retail consumer experience is of much relevance here but having just paid the rapacious termination fees and finally escaped my phone contract, I can report that Softbank are a bunch of thieves.JosiasJessop said:I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
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There is a difference (as you will know): Micron are an IP and fabrication company: they make chips. ARM are a pure IP firm, who rely on other companies to fabricate their chips.SouthamObserver said:ARM would be worth an absolute fortune to China and has done a lot of business there recently. I wonder if Softbank is a staging post. The Chinese have been trying to acquire a major semiconductor company for a number of years, but have always struggled to get past regulatory authority concerns. Tsinghua tried with Micron last year, for example, but were beaten back before even submitting a formal bid.
A vast amount of the value is in the fabrication, not the basic chip IP. But the fabrication technology also loses value quicker as new processes come online.
If I was Theresea May, I would be asking Softbank what they were going to being to ARM. What does the company gain from the takeover - especially as the doubling of jobs looks as though it was going to happen anyway. What are their long-term plans? I'd ask the ARM management the same thing.0 -
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/754730207752388608
If he's treated other MPs like this, it's no wonder that they are desperate to replace him.0 -
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That was also said about Jospin against an unpopular Chirac in 2002 (albeit not quite as unpopular as Hollande). It can't be taken for granted if the centre/centre-right is both too divided and also leaking against the far-right.edmundintokyo said:I don't follow the Bayrou thing. If Hollande is going down hard then the centre-right get tbrough to the second round. Who cares who leada the first round?
With Juppe standing for the Republicans, the 1st round polls are roughly
Juppe 36
Le Pen 28
Hollande 13
Melenchon 12
The rest: single figures.
and the second round,
Juppe 68
Le Pen 32
That's pretty clear-cut and even nine months out, it'd take a lot to shift that outcome.
If it's Sarkozy, then the polls become
Le Pen 28
Sarkozy 23
Hollande 14
Melenchon 12
Bayrou 11
The rest single figures
In a 2nd-round run-off, it's a good deal closer, at about 58-42 to Sarkozy. That's still relatively comfortable. The shocker is the Hollande-Le Pen score, of which we've had none since April, but they were both:
Le Pen 53
Hollande 47
Now, a nine point lead for Sarkozy over Hollande in the first round is still relatively comfortable but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that that could change by April (though if it does, to Hollande's benefit, the socialist ought also to improve against Le Pen). Incumbents do usually get some swingback.0 -
Yep, I spent a day at ARM last year and was told all about their plans to double the size of the campus in Cambridge. All the permissions were in place and the land was bought. As ARM is all about IP there is absolutely no reason for it to be in the UK and it would be even more valuable to the Chinese than the likes of Micron. If the government does not do as you say and does not get very strong legally enforceable reassurance then it will be plain negligence. If ARM does end up leaving the UK, the damage that could cause our technology knowledge base is immense.JosiasJessop said:
There is a difference (as you will know): Micron are an IP and fabrication company: they make chips. ARM are a pure IP firm, who rely on other companies to fabricate their chips.SouthamObserver said:ARM would be worth an absolute fortune to China and has done a lot of business there recently. I wonder if Softbank is a staging post. The Chinese have been trying to acquire a major semiconductor company for a number of years, but have always struggled to get past regulatory authority concerns. Tsinghua tried with Micron last year, for example, but were beaten back before even submitting a formal bid.
A vast amount of the value is in the fabrication, not the basic chip IP. But the fabrication technology also loses value quicker as new processes come online.
If I was Theresea May, I would be asking Softbank what they were going to being to ARM. What does the company gain from the takeover - especially as the doubling of jobs looks as though it was going to happen anyway. What are their long-term plans? I'd ask the ARM management the same thing.
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Morning. Thanks David for the succinct summary of the French race, for those of us who hadn't much thought of it yet in among the chaos elsewhere!
Betfair market hasn't really got going either, I'll have a nibble on Juppé while he's still odds against.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27360404/market?marketId=1.1171799830 -
The basic problem is that with returns on Japanese bonds so low, companies are willing to acquire foreign currency earnings at implied returns of 3-4%. Western investors just can't compete with that.peter_from_putney said:ARM isn't the first Cambridge-based high tech company to be swallowed up by the Japanese, Brother acquired world-leading Domino Printing Sciences last year, and I feel sure it won't be the last.
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Except that's not what the polls suggest. There's a reasonable chance that she'll win the first round and it's near certain that she'll make the final two. Her problem, as you rightly point out, is in gaining transfers, but she may not need all that many if there are mass abstentions in the second round, something which some polls - particularly Hollande-Le Pen head-to-heads - suggest could well happen.Casino_Royale said:Juppe.
The Front National just has too much baggage (at the moment) to win 50%+1 in the second round of a presidential election, and Le Pen lacks something that candidates like Hofer seem to have in Austria.
That said, I really don't see how she gets past Juppe.0 -
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.0 -
I have been away, anyone know how Antifrank is and how his partner is recovering?0
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Interesting story, good news for the shareholders and a promise of sticking to the expansion plans with a load more skilled jobs.JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
The corporate takeover market is going to be busy for the next couple of years, there's a lot of large companies with an awful lot of cash in the bank not earning them much money. Apple are said to have over £175bn (or was it $175bn), more than the annual GDP of a lot of nations!0 -
I'm quite sure you know that there are all sorts of restrictions placed on certain overseas sales (and domestic ones, for that matter), which might prevent an item reaching its open-market price. There is no principle of compensation in such circumstances; it is one of the rights of the state to regulate markets.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.
That doesn't mean that such regulation is actually in the national interest, or that it's always done well - but they're different questions.0 -
@paulwaugh: Hammond: Softbank £24bn takeover of ARM wd be largest ever Asian investment into UK + prove UK has lost none of its allure post-Brexit vote0
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The key is the irrational, even inhuman (let alone inhumane) devotion with which JC is regarded by his fan club. (There's a reason why I, one of only two Peebies to have served on an elected public body with him, call him by his initials.)ThreeQuidder said:https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/754730207752388608
If he's treated other MPs like this, it's no wonder that they are desperate to replace him.
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There's surely going to be a split in Labour. The language being used is not that of a party that will reconcile any time soon.ThreeQuidder said:ttps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/754730207752388608
If he's treated other MPs like this, it's no wonder that they are desperate to replace him.0 -
I've little to no doubt that JC would sooner emulate the jailed Mandela's silent dignity than sit in Downing Street faced with "events, dear boy, events" he doesn't understand - I assume that Mrs M knows how to listen, at least. He doesn't.Sandpit said:
There's surely going to be a split in Labour. The language being used is not that of a party that will reconcile any time soon.ThreeQuidder said:ttps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/754730207752388608
If he's treated other MPs like this, it's no wonder that they are desperate to replace him.
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The worry for me is how easily transportable ARM is. Without strong and binding commitments to remain in the UK Softbank could easily, over time, move the company's heart elsewhere. Or just sell the company on. As I say downthread the Chinese would pay big time to get their hands on it. That means a potential loss not only of expertise, but also of relationships at a high level with any number of other technology companies of all size. This is all a part of our soft power. It has no tangible value, but is worth a huge amount to us.david_herdson said:
I'm quite sure you know that there are all sorts of restrictions placed on certain overseas sales (and domestic ones, for that matter), which might prevent an item reaching its open-market price. There is no principle of compensation in such circumstances; it is one of the rights of the state to regulate markets.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.
That doesn't mean that such regulation is actually in the national interest, or that it's always done well - but they're different questions.
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One thing that's struck me about Nice is the vanishingly short period/lack of Twitter outpouring/changing avatars et al.
I can't tell if that's just a lack of novelty, genuine 'what's the point' or a hardening of attitudes. The news outlets can't be relied on much either given the desire to squash down troubling views.
Post Baton Rouge and Dallas, we've got Cleveland RNC later today. It's been a crazy year so far - let's hope the latter breaks the pattern and there's no serious trouble.0 -
I would guess it is a mixture of your first two (particularly the fact that, sadly, it is France again), plus the news overload we are all suffering, and the way global media attention moved quickly on to Turkey.PlatoSaid said:One thing that's struck me about Nice is the vanishingly short period/lack of Twitter outpouring/changing avatars et al.
I can't tell if that's just a lack of novelty, genuine 'what's the point' or a hardening of attitudes. The news outlets can't be relied on much either given the desire to squash down troubling views.
Post Baton Rouge and Dallas, we've got Cleveland RNC later today. It's been a crazy year so far - let's hope the latter breaks the pattern and there's no serious trouble.0 -
Interesting factoid: unless there is a coup today :-) Spain's current democracy has now lasted longer than Franco's dictatorship:
https://twitter.com/_ignaciomolina/status/7548117120926679040 -
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.0 -
Yet more evidence of Corbyn's utter uselessness:
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016/07/17/the-rise-and-fall-of-corbyns-economics/0 -
Dear oh dear, back to 1970s Labour.JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.0 -
Doesn't look like the government is minded to stand in the way:JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.
https://twitter.com/PHammondMP/status/7549249128553799680 -
Micheál Martin says Ireland could see 'reunification referendum'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/17/micheal-martin-says-ireland-could-see-reunification-referendum?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
Not at all.runnymede said:
Dear oh dear, back to 1970s Labour.JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.0 -
I can only hope they've got some f'ing big assurances from Softbank.ThreeQuidder said:
Doesn't look like the government is minded to stand in the way:JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.
https://twitter.com/PHammondMP/status/754924912855379968
(note: I'm an ARM shareholder, but neither myself or Mrs J work for them).0 -
Quite, and Mrs M will be in Downing St for quite a while as a result. There must be a large number of Labour politicians who actually want to be in government, which is never going to happen under Corbyn and his fellow travellers. Providing an opposition worthy of the name would be a good start.Innocent_Abroad said:
I've little to no doubt that JC would sooner emulate the jailed Mandela's silent dignity than sit in Downing Street faced with "events, dear boy, events" he doesn't understand - I assume that Mrs M knows how to listen, at least. He doesn't.Sandpit said:
There's surely going to be a split in Labour. The language being used is not that of a party that will reconcile any time soon.ThreeQuidder said:ttps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/754730207752388608
If he's treated other MPs like this, it's no wonder that they are desperate to replace him.0 -
There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.0 -
I take it that's dated from the coup of 1981?SouthamObserver said:Interesting factoid: unless there is a coup today :-) Spain's current democracy has now lasted longer than Franco's dictatorship:
https://twitter.com/_ignaciomolina/status/7548117120926679040 -
Hopefully binding reassurances have been asked for and given. If they have, there's no problem. If they haven't, it's negligence pure and simple.ThreeQuidder said:
Doesn't look like the government is minded to stand in the way:JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.
https://twitter.com/PHammondMP/status/754924912855379968
0 -
Franco - 1936 to 1976ydoethur said:
I take it that's dated from the coup of 1981?SouthamObserver said:Interesting factoid: unless there is a coup today :-) Spain's current democracy has now lasted longer than Franco's dictatorship:
https://twitter.com/_ignaciomolina/status/754811712092667904
Democracy - 1976 to 2016 + one day
There's a bit of poetic licence, but you get the point!
0 -
Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.0 -
All the £24bn value of ARM is sat in the heads of the people working in Cambridge.SouthamObserver said:
Hopefully binding reassurances have been asked for and given. If they have, there's no problem. If they haven't, it's negligence pure and simple.ThreeQuidder said:
Doesn't look like the government is minded to stand in the way:JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.
https://twitter.com/PHammondMP/status/7549249128553799680 -
Yes but is 'wanting to be in government' enough, without any sort of coherent programme (not even a reasoned critique of Corbyn's offering let alone an alternative centre-left analysis to take on the Tories) or charismatic alternative leader?Sandpit said:
Quite, and Mrs M will be in Downing St for quite a while as a result. There must be a large number of Labour politicians who actually want to be in government, which is never going to happen under Corbyn and his fellow travellers. Providing an opposition worthy of the name would be a good start.Innocent_Abroad said:
I've little to no doubt that JC would sooner emulate the jailed Mandela's silent dignity than sit in Downing Street faced with "events, dear boy, events" he doesn't understand - I assume that Mrs M knows how to listen, at least. He doesn't.Sandpit said:
There's surely going to be a split in Labour. The language being used is not that of a party that will reconcile any time soon.ThreeQuidder said:ttps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/754730207752388608
If he's treated other MPs like this, it's no wonder that they are desperate to replace him.
A lot of people are fed up with the pre-Corbyn era politics of (or which they see as) lots of egos all wanting for the top jobs but standing on similar policies. Cooper and Burnham bombed because they had nothing to say. Eagle has nothing to say, Smith is trying but it's early days.
The bottom line is that the Labour rebels need more than simply pointing to Corbyn's unelectability whilst taking for granted: a) that they stand for something, when (apart from not being Tories) they haven't worked out what, b) that they have a suitable alternative leader, when they don't, and c) that their managerial and leadership skills make them suitable people to run the country, when they have been demonstrating their own incompetence at every turn.0 -
And the police chief/his girlfriend who were beheaded on video and uploaded to Facebook.ydoethur said:There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.0 -
If Erdogan had planned this coup in Turkey it could not have worked out better for him. Thousands of unhelpful judges fired and ...
https://twitter.com/conflicts/status/754918478033854464
0 -
Seems like a good opening negotiating position from his point of view. Get used it.Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.0 -
Rubbish. It's pure blusterYellowSubmarine said:
Seems like a good opening negotiating position from his point of view. Get used it.Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.0 -
That's not quite true. Because they licence their IP for others to alter, there are plenty of people around the world with deep-down knowledge of ARM's IP, from Apple to Qualcomm.eek said:
All the £24bn value of ARM is sat in the heads of the people working in Cambridge.SouthamObserver said:
Hopefully binding reassurances have been asked for and given. If they have, there's no problem. If they haven't, it's negligence pure and simple.ThreeQuidder said:
Doesn't look like the government is minded to stand in the way:JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.
https://twitter.com/PHammondMP/status/7549249128553799680 -
I'm sure the Leave heartlands will be rejoicing the Japanese are buying into one of our tech firms incentives by a sudden devaluation. Forza !0
-
He really is the most enormous arse.Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.0 -
I heard a commentator on R4 yesterday suggest that the truth may be that Erdogan was planning some sort of major crackdown already (hence his having a list of thousands of local judges to sack conveniently ready), and the coup arose because the anti-Erdogan forces caught wind of it and tried to head it off by acting first. Without knowing much about Turkey, this seems more credible than his having arranged the coup himself and then arrested the mugs he persuaded to do it?SouthamObserver said:If Erdogan had planned this coup in Turkey it could not have worked out better for him. Thousands of unhelpful judges fired and ...
https://twitter.com/conflicts/status/754918478033854464
0 -
more blusterYellowSubmarine said:Micheál Martin says Ireland could see 'reunification referendum'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/17/micheal-martin-says-ireland-could-see-reunification-referendum?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
Ha ha. Good luck to him with enforcing that. We'll talk to whoever we damn please, thank you very much Mr DrunkerCharles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.0 -
I think that's more likely to be right. It would explain why the coup was so ill-planned and why it got as far as it did - reports from family in Ankara is that there's been lots of damage, and more than is being reported in the news.IanB2 said:
I heard a commentator on R4 yesterday suggest that the truth may be that Erdogan was planning some sort of major crackdown already (hence his having a list of thousands of judges conveniently ready to go), and the coup arose because the anti-Erdogan forces caught wind of it and tried to head it off by acting first. Without knowing much about Turkey, this seems more credible than his having arranged the coup himself and then arrested the mugs he persuaded to do it?SouthamObserver said:If Erdogan had planned this coup in Turkey it could not have worked out better for him. Thousands of unhelpful judges fired and ...
https://twitter.com/conflicts/status/754918478033854464
Also: the people he's rounding up are very unlikely all to have been in on the coup. It's a sweeping clean of the board.0 -
Yes. But it's interesting to see a mainstream figure think it's worth adopting this positioning.runnymede said:
more blusterYellowSubmarine said:Micheál Martin says Ireland could see 'reunification referendum'
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/17/micheal-martin-says-ireland-could-see-reunification-referendum?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
How do you work that out? Did you read the previous comments?runnymede said:
Dear oh dear, back to 1970s Labour.JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.0 -
It reminded me of an overbearing dad instructing his teenage kids not to talk to X - yeah right.Sandpit said:
Ha ha. Good luck to him with enforcing that. We'll talk to whoever we damn please, thank you very much Mr DrunkerCharles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.0 -
Yep. And just because people live in or around Cambridge now does not mean they always will.JosiasJessop said:
That's not quite true. Because they licence their IP for others to alter, there are plenty of people around the world with deep-down knowledge of ARM's IP, from Apple to Qualcomm.eek said:
All the £24bn value of ARM is sat in the heads of the people working in Cambridge.SouthamObserver said:
Hopefully binding reassurances have been asked for and given. If they have, there's no problem. If they haven't, it's negligence pure and simple.ThreeQuidder said:
Doesn't look like the government is minded to stand in the way:JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.
https://twitter.com/PHammondMP/status/754924912855379968
0 -
I hadn't heard about that one! When was it?PlatoSaid said:
And the police chief/his girlfriend who were beheaded on video and uploaded to Facebook.ydoethur said:There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.0 -
Charles said:
Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
Brexit going well I see.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Hammond: Softbank £24bn takeover of ARM wd be largest ever Asian investment into UK + prove UK has lost none of its allure post-Brexit vote
0 -
There was an interesting piece yesterday again on R4 about how our secret services knew that two of what turned out to be the 7/7 bombers had a base in Leeds/Bradford but didn't inform West Yorkshire Police. Following the 7/7 bombing there was an overhaul of intelligence sharing and now the various agencies including the police are apparently more routinely involved in discussions about potential suspects, and able to bring any local knowledge they might have to the table. This was contrasted with the position in France where the same work was said to be spread between six different secret service agencies which do not have the structures or culture in place to co-operate in the same way. I don't know how reasonable a critique this might be (as against just 'Brits know about these things').ydoethur said:There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.0 -
'This is what I'm meant to be doing': the vicar welcoming Muslims to church
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/18/this-is-what-im-meant-to-be-doing-the-vicar-welcoming-muslims-to-church?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard0 -
Agree with every word of that.IanB2 said:
Yes but is 'wanting to be in government' enough, without any sort of coherent programme (not even a reasoned critique of Corbyn's offering let alone an alternative centre-left analysis to take on the Tories) or charismatic alternative leader?Sandpit said:
Quite, and Mrs M will be in Downing St for quite a while as a result. There must be a large number of Labour politicians who actually want to be in government, which is never going to happen under Corbyn and his fellow travellers. Providing an opposition worthy of the name would be a good start.Innocent_Abroad said:
I've little to no doubt that JC would sooner emulate the jailed Mandela's silent dignity than sit in Downing Street faced with "events, dear boy, events" he doesn't understand - I assume that Mrs M knows how to listen, at least. He doesn't.Sandpit said:
There's surely going to be a split in Labour. The language being used is not that of a party that will reconcile any time soon.ThreeQuidder said:ttps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/754730207752388608
If he's treated other MPs like this, it's no wonder that they are desperate to replace him.
A lot of people are fed up with the pre-Corbyn era politics of (or which they see as) lots of egos all wanting for the top jobs but standing on similar policies. Cooper and Burnham bombed because they had nothing to say. Eagle has nothing to say, Smith is trying but it's early days.
The bottom line is that the Labour rebels need more than simply pointing to Corbyn's unelectability whilst taking for granted: a) that they stand for something, when (apart from not being Tories) they haven't worked out what, b) that they have a suitable alternative leader, when they don't, and c) that their managerial and leadership skills make them suitable people to run the country, when they have been demonstrating their own incompetence at every turn.
The modern Labour Party is basically a coalition of three groups:
1. Corbyn and friends
2. Metropolitan middle-class lefties
3. White working classes.
Most of the members are in group 1, most of the MPs in group 2 and most of the voters in group 3.
An electable Labour Party need to focus on policies to help group 3, while also attracting a couple of million who voted for David Cameron. But groups 1 and 2 think they can change the world with hashtags and online petitions. Until group 2 can get their act together and actually be for a set of policies rather than just against group 1, then Corbyn and friends are going to be in charge.0 -
For those who rather like the cut of May's jib - this from Janet Daley is an interesting analysis of it vs Cameroonism.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2016/07/16/blue-collar-conservatism-is-back--and-it-takes-a-very-clever-wom/
"The blue-collar Conservatism that had been such an important component of the Thatcherite constituency had been replaced by a new condescension which found fresh ways of deriding the old enemies: the inarticulate yobs, the vulgar chavs, the provincial elderly with their quaint ideas about national pride, and the ambitious suburbanites trying to get on in life.
At this point, I must declare my own predilections. I am a metropolitan liberal. Those London dinner party prejudices are largely mine, too. In fact, I share pretty much all the social attitudes and values of the modernisers I have so brutally depicted. I am a member of the ethnic minority that Stalin notoriously described as “rootless cosmopolitans”. So I have to struggle with my own inclination to despise those who, with my usual preconceptions, would seem backward or ignorant."
0 -
He is in rather a difficult position. If he allows us to negotiate before leaving the EU, he looks weak and green lights other countries to do unilateral trade deals. If he tries to stop us and succeeds, he fuels massive resentment against the EU here and possibly looks petty and domineering to ongoing members, who may start to worry about their own sovereignty. If as seems likely, Fox and Johnson advise him to indulge in a sex act in another place and go ahead, he can stamp and scream and try to play hard in our exit negotiations but there are fairly strict limits to what he can do, so he will look weak and irrelevant.Sandpit said:
Ha ha. Good luck to him with enforcing that. We'll talk to whoever we damn please, thank you very much Mr DrunkerCharles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
Any market on him leaving office in the next three months so somebody sane, intelligent and sober can try and calm things down? There are rumours the real boss of the EU (Merkel) is fed up with him so any market looks value.0 -
thanks for the article david. seems like a lot rests on the juppe/sarkozy call. who and how exactly is that choice made? If i'm reading it correctly the general public vote on it in november?david_herdson said:
Except that's not what the polls suggest. There's a reasonable chance that she'll win the first round and it's near certain that she'll make the final two. Her problem, as you rightly point out, is in gaining transfers, but she may not need all that many if there are mass abstentions in the second round, something which some polls - particularly Hollande-Le Pen head-to-heads - suggest could well happen.Casino_Royale said:Juppe.
The Front National just has too much baggage (at the moment) to win 50%+1 in the second round of a presidential election, and Le Pen lacks something that candidates like Hofer seem to have in Austria.
That said, I really don't see how she gets past Juppe.0 -
If you read the thread you will see that a lot of people seem quite upset by this.Pulpstar said:Brexit going well I see.
But this is worth noting
@MarkKleinmanSky: Notable that ARM take-out price is 41% premium to all-time high - takeovers of SAB Miller, BG, Cadbury much lower premium or even discount.0 -
Junker is a fool. How does he propose to enforce this decision? The Commission are absolutely shit scared that we will make Brexit a huge success and show just how unnecessary the EU is. Tusk said the same before that we should not be allowed to profit from Brexit or something along those lines.0
-
That is interesting and it seems plausible. Simple mathematics reveals that our security services have recently been performing better than their French counterparts, although they appear to be less successful in Northern Ireland. I only hope they don't get complacent.IanB2 said:
There was an interesting piece yesterday again on R4 about how our secret services knew that two of what turned out to be the 7/7 bombers had a base in Leeds/Bradford but didn't inform West Yorkshire Police. Following the 7/7 bombing there was an overhaul of intelligence sharing and now the various agencies including the police are apparently more routinely involved in discussions about potential suspects, and able to bring any local knowledge they might have to the table. This was contrasted with the position in France where the same work was said to be spread between six different secret service agencies which do not have the structures or culture in place to co-operate in the same way. I don't know how reasonable a critique this might be (as against just 'Brits know about these things').ydoethur said:There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.0 -
On Sunday Politics (London) yesterday a Haringey councillor was interviewed and asked what was wrong with his party, and he said "the leader is divorced from the MPs, the MPs are divorced from the members, and our members are divorced from the public". Nothing we don't know already, but brutally put from one of their own!Sandpit said:
Agree with every word of that.IanB2 said:
Yes but is 'wanting to be in government' enough, without any sort of coherent programme (not even a reasoned critique of Corbyn's offering let alone an alternative centre-left analysis to take on the Tories) or charismatic alternative leader?Sandpit said:
Quite, and Mrs M will be in Downing St for quite a while as a result. There must be a large number of Labour politicians who actually want to be in government, which is never going to happen under Corbyn and his fellow travellers. Providing an opposition worthy of the name would be a good start.Innocent_Abroad said:Sandpit said:
n.ThreeQuidder said:ttps://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/754730207752388608
If he's treated other MPs like this, it's no wonder that they are desperate to replace him.
A lot of people are fed up with the pre-Corbyn era politics of (or which they see as) lots of egos all wanting for the top jobs but standing on similar policies. Cooper and Burnham bombed because they had nothing to say. Eagle has nothing to say, Smith is trying but it's early days.
The bottom line is that the Labour rebels need more than simply pointing to Corbyn's unelectability whilst taking for granted: a) that they stand for something, when (apart from not being Tories) they haven't worked out what, b) that they have a suitable alternative leader, when they don't, and c) that their managerial and leadership skills make them suitable people to run the country, when they have been demonstrating their own incompetence at every turn.
The modern Labour Party is basically a coalition of three groups:
1. Corbyn and friends
2. Metropolitan middle-class lefties
3. White working classes.
Most of the members are in group 1, most of the MPs in group 2 and most of the voters in group 3.
An electable Labour Party need to focus on policies to help group 3, while also attracting a couple of million who voted for David Cameron. But groups 1 and 2 think they can change the world with hashtags and online petitions. Until group 2 can get their act together and actually be for a set of policies rather than just against group 1, then Corbyn and friends are going to be in charge.
/edit as a comment on your post, don't forget also the mainly Muslim ethnic minorities, a big labour constituency, with different priorities from its traditional base.0 -
17th June http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3646308/Husband-wife-police-officers-killed-French-ISIS-fanatic-revenge-earlier-run-New-theory-murders-emerges-killer-said-came-house-came-his.htmlydoethur said:
I hadn't heard about that one! When was it?PlatoSaid said:
And the police chief/his girlfriend who were beheaded on video and uploaded to Facebook.ydoethur said:There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.0 -
If I were an EU leader I'd be arranging to throw Juncker out of a very high open window.Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
If the EU does start to unravel his intransigence and arrogance will have played no small part in its downfall.0 -
Very well, SoftBank are decent owners. Son is no fool. He doesn't make rash decisions, this will have been planned so I doubt whether Brexit had very much to do with it other than forcing them to moce before Sterling strengthens.Pulpstar said:Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
Brexit going well I see.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: Hammond: Softbank £24bn takeover of ARM wd be largest ever Asian investment into UK + prove UK has lost none of its allure post-Brexit vote
0 -
I see it's left to John Humphries to fulfil the role of Her Majesty's Opposition.0
-
If we go around the commission he has no power, simple as that. He is trying to asser his authority.MaxPB said:Junker is a fool. How does he propose to enforce this decision? The Commission are absolutely shit scared that we will make Brexit a huge success and show just how unnecessary the EU is. Tusk said the same before that we should not be allowed to profit from Brexit or something along those lines.
0 -
@politicshome: Jeremy Corbyn says Theresa May's 'One Nation' mission statement "wdn’t have happened" without him as Labour leader https://t.co/nuYCLQdjyQ0
-
Not happy with the ARM news, but we do have a good history of Japanese firms keeping work in the UK.0
-
Well, we need or at the very least want to negotiate with them. So that does give them some leverage.MaxPB said:Junker is a fool. How does he propose to enforce this decision? The Commission are absolutely shit scared that we will make Brexit a huge success and show just how unnecessary the EU is. Tusk said the same before that we should not be allowed to profit from Brexit or something along those lines.
But looking at the TTIP (which gives the Americans the small matter of everything they want and gives us very little In return) the EU's negotiators really are pretty hopeless, and Juncker couldn't negotiate his way past a three year old with a water pistol. So their threat to play awkward isn't terribly convincing.0 -
Good grief.PlatoSaid said:
17th June http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3646308/Husband-wife-police-officers-killed-French-ISIS-fanatic-revenge-earlier-run-New-theory-murders-emerges-killer-said-came-house-came-his.htmlydoethur said:
I hadn't heard about that one! When was it?PlatoSaid said:
And the police chief/his girlfriend who were beheaded on video and uploaded to Facebook.ydoethur said:There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.0 -
It is of course easier to get to France and to get weapons in than to the UK. But I also think we benefit from having less dramatic segregation (geographically and socially) of our Muslim communities; our relatively higher levels of integration must make it easier to get worthwhile intelligence on what potential plots might be brewing. In France the impression seems to be that its heavily segregated Muslim communities are a foreign land to the state?ydoethur said:
That is interesting and it seems plausible. Simple mathematics reveals that our security services have recently been performing better than their French counterparts, although they appear to be less successful in Northern Ireland. I only hope they don't get complacent.IanB2 said:
There was an interesting piece yesterday again on R4 about how our secret services knew that two of what turned out to be the 7/7 bombers had a base in Leeds/Bradford but didn't inform West Yorkshire Police. Following the 7/7 bombing there was an overhaul of intelligence sharing and now the various agencies including the police are apparently more routinely involved in discussions about potential suspects, and able to bring any local knowledge they might have to the table. This was contrasted with the position in France where the same work was said to be spread between six different secret service agencies which do not have the structures or culture in place to co-operate in the same way. I don't know how reasonable a critique this might be (as against just 'Brits know about these things').ydoethur said:There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.0 -
Simple mathematics says nothing of the sort. For all we know the French secret devices have quietly foiled a hundred attacks letting only a handful through whilst he British secret service have secretly foiled none. We do not know the underlying population of 'events' try are working against.ydoethur said:
That is interesting and it seems plausible. Simple mathematics reveals that our security services have recently been performing better than their French counterparts, although they appear to be less successful in Northern Ireland. I only hope they don't get complacent.IanB2 said:
There was an interesting piece yesterday again on R4 about how our secret services knew that two of what turned out to be the 7/7 bombers had a base in Leeds/Bradford but didn't inform West Yorkshire Police. Following the 7/7 bombing there was an overhaul of intelligence sharing and now the various agencies including the police are apparently more routinely involved in discussions about potential suspects, and able to bring any local knowledge they might have to the table. This was contrasted with the position in France where the same work was said to be spread between six different secret service agencies which do not have the structures or culture in place to co-operate in the same way. I don't know how reasonable a critique this might be (as against just 'Brits know about these things').ydoethur said:There have been four attacks in France recently - one was unsuccessful (the gunman on the train who was beaten up by those Americans). I suggest the French have every reason to assume that their government and security services are simply not doing their jobs properly. That is the real danger if Le Pen decides to put Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite up against Securite. It could easily prove a winner.
Other than that slight criticism, great post.
That's he thing about the secret service - their success are mostly secret.0 -
That sort of comment's unlike you JJ.JosiasJessop said:
No, I am not proposing that. The government should look at what is good for the country, not the whole, and avoid blood-sucking financial parasites who make comments such as yours above.Charles said:
Are you proposing the UK taxpayer should compensate ARM shareholders? After all they are being asked to give up a significant capital gain in return for some notion of the public goodJosiasJessop said:
Because some might see ARM as a critical business for the UK. We don't have many tech success stories on their scale. (*) Long-term it could harm the Cambridge phenomena, especially if tech and expertise is leached away from the UK.Charles said:
Allowing our pension funds to sell an asset for more than it's intrinsic worth, crystallize the gain, redeploy the capital into other opportunities and pocket the difference?tlg86 said:
I thought this was the sort of thing our new PM wanted to stop? Or does this not matter as most people will never have heard of ARM?JosiasJessop said:Important news in tech:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36822272
Genuinely surprised by this.
Why would she want to stop that?
I don't know much about Softbank: I can only hope that they're independent enough to be able to persuade licensees they'll treat them all equally.
(*) And it all happened by glorious accident, which Robin Saxby exploited fully.
I'm simply saying that there are clearly externalities involved in the situation. The government may decide that it is important than ARM is kept in the UK because of those externalities. If so, it is restricting the rights of private individuals to dispose of their property as they see fit - the value of the externalities should be shared rather than expropriated.0 -
The latest French poll - quoted last night - had Hollande in fifth place if Sarkozy was the LR candidate, and four if Juppe was.
Personally, I don't see Sarkozy as the LR candidate - indeed, I'd make it a less than 20% chance. If the polls continue to look as they do now, he'll step back become Juppe's Prime Minister.
The other question is will Macron be the PS candidate?. I'd reckon that is a more than 50% chance.
All in Juppe remains the value play. I think he's at least a 60% chance to be the next French President, and maybe more.0 -
Not really. It will be ignored and he will lose credibility.YellowSubmarine said:
Seems like a good opening negotiating position from his point of view. Get used it.Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Also a bit surprised by the ARM sale, although as I'm neither in finance nor tech it's not something I know much about.
On-topic: still hard for me to see le Pen winning (also, is it Le Pen, or le Pen?). But she has a better chance than Corbyn does of becoming PM.0 -
I was at the rugby a few weeks ago, the tries my side scored were all down to me.Scott_P said:@politicshome: Jeremy Corbyn says Theresa May's 'One Nation' mission statement "wdn’t have happened" without him as Labour leader https://t.co/nuYCLQdjyQ
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It's a stupid thing to say. The UK can have trade negotiations with anyone they like. What they cannot do - and remain a part of the EU - is to enter into an active trade agreement.Charles said:Just seen Juncker's announcement that he will not permit the UK to have trade negoatiations with any third country while they are a member of the EU (as it is the exclusive responsibility of the Commisson).
Words fail me sometimes, they really do.
I think Juncker is desperately trying to remain relevant as the Germans, Spanish, and co manoeuvre to have him removed.0 -
That just about sums it up, they're very worried indeed that Brexit might be anything other than a complete disaster for the UK.MaxPB said:Junker is a fool. How does he propose to enforce this decision? The Commission are absolutely shit scared that we will make Brexit a huge success and show just how unnecessary the EU is. Tusk said the same before that we should not be allowed to profit from Brexit or something along those lines.
Meanwhile, our new PM has appointed a SoS for Trade, an SoS for Business, an SoS for Brexit and fitted out a long haul aircraft for their use.0
