politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs gain four seats in their best night of local by-electio
Comments
-
Guido posted a SPAD list earlier. Mrs Leadsom doesn't have any. She needs someone between her and the press!PlatoSaid said:Spotted a couple of new appts
Ben Gummer is now Paymaster General
Jeremy Wright is still AG
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/dods-people/77259/updating-live-theresa-mays
0 -
If UKIP were to decline, it's hard to see the Conservatives failing to hit 40%. The right of centre vote in the UK as a whole is around 50%, and more like 55% in England.david_herdson said:
Yes, 50% isn't really possible without significant positive support which isn't there at the moment. 40% is certainly realistic though and could be combined with a 15% lead over Labour even without a formal split, if Corbyn simply looks incompetent and with questionable associates (something which events like today's will consistently bring back to the fore). I've not checked the figures but I'd be surprised if a 40-25 result didn't produce a 100+ Tory majority. If Labour did split into two factions, both running candidates against each other, then you could easily see a 200+ majority as Lab/SDP2/LD/UKIP/Grn trip over each other to establish themselves as the opposition to the Tories, even with some local pacts.paulyork64 said:
I'm still not getting the idea that the Tories will gain votes at the next election, especially if it's early. They might gain share if some who did vote labour are put off by them now, and seats if labour split, but i'd be v surprised if they get to 40% let alone 50%.ydoethur said:Osborne's allies threatening May, who has a majority of 12 (16) for announcing he was sacked.
How Machiavellian do people think she is? Could she get round her general election pledge by forcing the loss of her majority, leaving government unworkable, and going to the country blaming it on posh failed chancellor Osborne's personal spite?
And if so, would she be the first PM since Baldwin to top 50% of the vote and the first since Macdonald to top 500 seats?0 -
Mr. F, aye, the Eastern Empire had the rug pulled from under it by the strategic idiocy of the Fourth Crusade.
I wonder if the Empire would still be with us but for that.0 -
There was me worrying about whether I should have restrained my sarcasm more..kle4 said:
Not really jumping the shark, it's not that much beyond the more optimistic views.Theuniondivvie said:Mash has jumped the shark here. Ridiculous to suggest this mindset exists, even satirically.
'Britain to get absolutely everything it wants from Brexit negotiations
..“But go in there British and proud, tell them ‘Full access to the single market, no immigration, and we keep all our subsidies or I’m out that door’ and they’ll cave like the continental cowards they are.
“Though obviously we do need to meet in the middle on freedom of movement. They can’t come here but I still go wherever I want. That seems fair.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h76u4ro0 -
Lets face it even though the 2 seats the LDs won in Cornwall were as a result of UKIP not putting up candidates and the one in North Norwich was because they had not put up a candidate in the previous election,it is about building a narrative for them showing they can win again no matter how insignificant the seats are. In the metropolitan areas last night they didn't do as well and continue to struggle.0
-
There was a huge increase in immigration after 1997. Whatever changes Labour brought in to enable that can be changed back to the pre-1997 system.John_M said:
In the worst recession we've ever had, net migration troughed at 177k, of which 82k were EU nationals. Immigration will remain high, pretty much whatever we do. No one is expecting a rerun of 2008.DaveDave said:
Here's my forecast. As May/Cameron never controlled ex-EU immigration, they don't want to. Immigration will stay as high, it will just come from different places. That's UKIP's positioning...Tories won't control immigration, yet now they can! Only UKIP will deliver for you.SouthamObserver said:
UKIP has some very deep thinking to do about its future. With the UK now leaving the EU, the only calling card that the party has is immigration. Presumably, the numbers coming into the country will decline as a result of Brexit and also as a result of the widely-expected Brexit-caused economic slowdown, so to keep front and centre of people's minds the party will surely have to tack rightwards on this topic. That risks straying into BNP territory unless such a move is very carefully calibrated. It is also gong to have to look at its other policies - and move leftwards if it wants to be a serious, sustainable alternative to Labour in its heartlands. That will be very tricky given the Thatcherite roots of most of the party leadership and membership.YellowSubmarine said:Assuming Britain won't be electing MEP's in June 2019 UKIP need a strategy. It's going to blow a huge hole in their finances and infrastructure.
You might argue that the UK will be in recession while the EU continues to recover, but even with a slowdown our economic growth is likely to be equal to the EZ.
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics
0 -
Knuckling under to Islamic extremists. No wonder why PS are not even going to make the second round.ydoethur said:
Very poor choice of words, if that's not an idiomatic translation.taffys said:According to Manuel Valls, French PM, France must learn to 'live with terrorism'
Jeez....
Also reveals a remarkably defeatist mindset. As in Petain 1940 defeatist.0 -
Great dodged bullets of our time.
'Andrea Leadsom Says It Is ‘Sensible’ Not To Let Men Look After Children As They May Be Paedophiles
“As an employer we’re not, let’s face it, most of us don’t employ men as nannies, most of us don’t,” she told the paper.
“Now you can call that sexist, I call that cautious and very sensible when you look at the stats.
“Your odds are stacked against you if you employ a man. We know paedophiles are attracted to working with children. I’m sorry but they’re the facts.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h2feh7b
0 -
I honestly can't recall the last time I saw good news coming out of France. It's all ugly violent strikes, burning Calais camp/bulldozers, street fighting at Euros, terror attacks and raids...taffys said:''It must be bloody awful to live there right now - Hebdo, Bataclan, Nice and beheaded police chief and his spouse filmed and stuck on Facebook. All in just 18 months.''
And an economy going nowhere under the yoke of socialism. What a dreadful mess Hollande has made of his country.0 -
A sentiment that is widely shared in "progressive" circles.Theuniondivvie said:Great dodged bullets of our time.
'Andrea Leadsom Says It Is ‘Sensible’ Not To Let Men Look After Children As They May Be Paedophiles
“As an employer we’re not, let’s face it, most of us don’t employ men as nannies, most of us don’t,” she told the paper.
“Now you can call that sexist, I call that cautious and very sensible when you look at the stats.
“Your odds are stacked against you if you employ a man. We know paedophiles are attracted to working with children. I’m sorry but they’re the facts.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h2feh7b0 -
Wales got thru to the semi-finals!PlatoSaid said:
I honestly can't recall the last time I saw good news coming out of France. It's all ugly violent strikes, burning Calais camp/bulldozers, street fighting at Euros, terror attacks and raids...taffys said:''It must be bloody awful to live there right now - Hebdo, Bataclan, Nice and beheaded police chief and his spouse filmed and stuck on Facebook. All in just 18 months.''
And an economy going nowhere under the yoke of socialism. What a dreadful mess Hollande has made of his country.
0 -
#Knuckling under to Islamic extremists. No wonder why PS are not even going to make the second round. #
''I accept that we invited all these people here, and that some of them are now killing you without mercy. But we're still absolutely right, and you'll get used to it. Statistically, its still unlikely to be you yourself.''0 -
He's really saying France must learn to die by terrorism. Unfit.taffys said:According to Manuel Valls, French PM, France must learn to 'live with terrorism'
Jeez....0 -
Or just pass an act of attainder on them fining them a couple of billion.rural_voter said:
Events, dear boy, events ... Preferably before 2018 or so, otherwise we're really out on the open sea without a paddle.kle4 said:
Yes, but we are being taken away by the tide with no realistic way of preventing that. We're not out yet, but there's no stopping it.ydoethur said:
We still are. Or has A50 been triggered and telescoped since yesterday?rottenborough said:
It's a bloody shame the Coalition didn't continue: we'd still be in the EU now if it had.JosiasJessop said:
Indeed.JackW said:
I not too sure what the apology should be for.Jonathan said:Whilst the Lib Dems can come back in pockets of local government, to make progress nationally they still need to do something to excise the whole tuition fees/coalition poison.
An apology would be a start.
They didn't win the 2010 election and therefore were not in a position to implement the tuition fee policy and by going into Coalition they helped to provide five years of stable government. A further bonus was the end of the dreadful Gordon Brown administration.
Whilst in 2015 the electorate were brutal to the LibDems I for one am grateful for the part they played in the 2010-15 government.
It'll be interesting to see how history views the 2010-15 coalition government. I reckon it'll be better than hey were viewed at the time.
A lot of water has to flow under a lot of bridges before we are out.
As one example of many benefits, the EU Competition Commisioner's ongoing fight against Google has no legal force if we leave. The UK would have to pay for its own investigation.0 -
The impression I'm picking up is that the French politicians and security services are beyond weary - and ground down after all of this unrelenting pressure.ydoethur said:
Very poor choice of words, if that's not an idiomatic translation.taffys said:According to Manuel Valls, French PM, France must learn to 'live with terrorism'
Jeez....
Also reveals a remarkably defeatist mindset. As in Petain 1940 defeatist.
No nation can carry on like this without it leaving those in charge feeling like it's an impossible task. It's a morale issue - and the attackers will pick up and exploit it.0 -
Depends on what he was meaning. Mentioning 1940, Churchill told the Commons that year to "get used to it [bombing]", because it was a reality of the situation the country was in and of the task it was taking on. The crucial distinction is in what Valls left unspoken. Did he mean:ydoethur said:
Very poor choice of words, if that's not an idiomatic translation.taffys said:According to Manuel Valls, French PM, France must learn to 'live with terrorism'
Jeez....
Also reveals a remarkably defeatist mindset. As in Petain 1940 defeatist.
1. France must learn to 'live with terrorism' until we defeat it, but until then we must recognise that the bad guys will fight back,
or
2. France must learn to 'live with terrorism' because it's a feature of modern society and a price that has to be paid.0 -
I have a delivery from NW3...0
-
Several assumptions on here that people will vote in a GE on a Leave/Remain basis in large numbers. I'm honestly not convinced - I suspect the state of the economy and tribal voting will, as ever, be much more important as current polling suggests.David_Evershed said:Lib Dems winning in LEAVE Cornwall despite being most pro REMAIN party.
Must be just local candidate and circumstances not a systemic swing.0 -
but how much of the UKIP vote is actually from right of centre voters?Sean_F said:
If UKIP were to decline, it's hard to see the Conservatives failing to hit 40%. The right of centre vote in the UK as a whole is around 50%, and more like 55% in England.david_herdson said:
Yes, 50% isn't really possible without significant positive support which isn't there at the moment. 40% is certainly realistic though and could be combined with a 15% lead over Labour even without a formal split, if Corbyn simply looks incompetent and with questionable associates (something which events like today's will consistently bring back to the fore). I've not checked the figures but I'd be surprised if a 40-25 result didn't produce a 100+ Tory majority. If Labour did split into two factions, both running candidates against each other, then you could easily see a 200+ majority as Lab/SDP2/LD/UKIP/Grn trip over each other to establish themselves as the opposition to the Tories, even with some local pacts.paulyork64 said:
I'm still not getting the idea that the Tories will gain votes at the next election, especially if it's early. They might gain share if some who did vote labour are put off by them now, and seats if labour split, but i'd be v surprised if they get to 40% let alone 50%.ydoethur said:Osborne's allies threatening May, who has a majority of 12 (16) for announcing he was sacked.
How Machiavellian do people think she is? Could she get round her general election pledge by forcing the loss of her majority, leaving government unworkable, and going to the country blaming it on posh failed chancellor Osborne's personal spite?
And if so, would she be the first PM since Baldwin to top 50% of the vote and the first since Macdonald to top 500 seats?0 -
I spotted something on Twitter last night that said she's appointed as her main press officer Lizzie Something, previously a big wheel on Vote Leave.anotherDave said:
Guido posted a SPAD list earlier. Mrs Leadsom doesn't have any. She needs someone between her and the press!PlatoSaid said:Spotted a couple of new appts
Ben Gummer is now Paymaster General
Jeremy Wright is still AG
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/dods-people/77259/updating-live-theresa-mays0 -
OT - anyone know where/when we can get info on the junior minister appointments today?
EDIT : Oops - just seen it!0 -
well if you won't be needing that oil then.........sarissa said:
at average calorific values and efficiencies, about 12kg for the Nissan Leaf 30kWh battery.JonnyJimmy said:How much coal gets burnt to fully charge an EV in the UK?
The UK generates about 30% of its electricity from coal and 30% from gas, so in our energy mix about 3.6kg contribution is needed. Or you could move to Scotland where we plan to generate 100% from renewables by 2020 ( currently it is 57%)
.0 -
I dont think it is much of an exaggeration to say that France is in a state of civil and will sooner or later react accordingly.PlatoSaid said:
The impression I'm picking up is that the French politicians and security services are beyond weary - and ground down after all of this unrelenting pressure.ydoethur said:
Very poor choice of words, if that's not an idiomatic translation.taffys said:According to Manuel Valls, French PM, France must learn to 'live with terrorism'
Jeez....
Also reveals a remarkably defeatist mindset. As in Petain 1940 defeatist.
No nation can carry on like this without it leaving those in charge feeling like it's an impossible task. It's a morale issue - and the attackers will pick up and exploit it.
I suspect Ataturks methods are already being studied0 -
I partly agree. It was the A8 accession in 2004 that really threw the doors open though. In six EU countries the average wage is a third of the UKs. In another eight its half. That's not taking into account the more generous UK H&W systems. Up until 2004, EU countries were similarly wealthy. That's not true now, and given accession plans, will not be true in the future.anotherDave said:
There was a huge increase in immigration after 1997. Whatever changes Labour brought in to enable that can be changed back to the pre-1997 system.John_M said:
In the worst recession we've ever had, net migration troughed at 177k, of which 82k were EU nationals. Immigration will remain high, pretty much whatever we do. No one is expecting a rerun of 2008.DaveDave said:
Here's my forecast. As May/Cameron never controlled ex-EU immigration, they don't want to. Immigration will stay as high, it will just come from different places. That's UKIP's positioning...Tories won't control immigration, yet now they can! Only UKIP will deliver for you.SouthamObserver said:
UKIP has some very deep thinking to do about its future. With the UK now leaving the EU, the only calling card that the party has is immigration. Presumably, the numbers coming into the country will decline as a result of Brexit and also as a result of the widely-expected Brexit-caused economic slowdown, so to keep front and centre of people's minds the party will surely have to tack rightwards on this topic. That risks straying into BNP territory unless such a move is very carefully calibrated. It is also gong to have to look at its other policies - and move leftwards if it wants to be a serious, sustainable alternative to Labour in its heartlands. That will be very tricky given the Thatcherite roots of most of the party leadership and membership.YellowSubmarine said:Assuming Britain won't be electing MEP's in June 2019 UKIP need a strategy. It's going to blow a huge hole in their finances and infrastructure.
You might argue that the UK will be in recession while the EU continues to recover, but even with a slowdown our economic growth is likely to be equal to the EZ.
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics
We can certainly reinstate the primary purpose rule (the main reason for the increase in the late 90s), but it was pretty harsh in practice, and I'm not sure reinstatement would attract public support now. Mixed race couples are pretty common today (e.g. two of my five nephews have foreign fiances).
We're likely to find it quite hard to clamp down. Many of us dislike mass immigration, but like immigrants in the round. The usual paradox of public policy.0 -
Wow. Should I call social services on myself?Theuniondivvie said:Great dodged bullets of our time.
'Andrea Leadsom Says It Is ‘Sensible’ Not To Let Men Look After Children As They May Be Paedophiles
“As an employer we’re not, let’s face it, most of us don’t employ men as nannies, most of us don’t,” she told the paper.
“Now you can call that sexist, I call that cautious and very sensible when you look at the stats.
“Your odds are stacked against you if you employ a man. We know paedophiles are attracted to working with children. I’m sorry but they’re the facts.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h2feh7b
Very, very angry about this.
0 -
Mr Dave, no need to hang about at sea. In the late seventies I took part in an exercise at Gatwick, a full blown job with troops on the group backing up the old bill, helicopter reaction forces etc.. It was played for as real as you can get. I was playing for the bad guys and our brief was to get a mockup of a Manpad into a position where, within the flight envelope of the weapon, we could take down a nominated flight.anotherDave said:There's another one where two terrorists loiter off the coast of the UK in a fishing boat, and fire a missile at a passenger jet on its way to land. That seems do-able too.
We ran the exercise four times and we, the bad guys (just four blokes), had a 100% success rate. Each time we were in position to hit the target aircraft and we made a clean get away, and that was when the "good guys" knew we were coming and what our targets were. It was too easy and that was using 1970's technology for shoulder launched anti-aircraft missiles. Today it would be even easier.
Intelligence is the key, once the baddies have their hands on the weapon and are ready to go we have to be very, very lucky to stop them.
0 -
Mr. Jessop, well, quite.
I wonder if Leadsom used to work for Nottingham Police.0 -
It's probably about 40% ex-Conservative, 20% ex-Labour, 10% ex-Lib Dem, and the rest from people who haven't voted in a while.paulyork64 said:
but how much of the UKIP vote is actually from right of centre voters?Sean_F said:
If UKIP were to decline, it's hard to see the Conservatives failing to hit 40%. The right of centre vote in the UK as a whole is around 50%, and more like 55% in England.david_herdson said:
Yes, 50% isn't really possible without significant positive support which isn't there at the moment. 40% is certainly realistic though and could be combined with a 15% lead over Labour even without a formal split, if Corbyn simply looks incompetent and with questionable associates (something which events like today's will consistently bring back to the fore). I've not checked the figures but I'd be surprised if a 40-25 result didn't produce a 100+ Tory majority. If Labour did split into two factions, both running candidates against each other, then you could easily see a 200+ majority as Lab/SDP2/LD/UKIP/Grn trip over each other to establish themselves as the opposition to the Tories, even with some local pacts.paulyork64 said:
I'm still not getting the idea that the Tories will gain votes at the next election, especially if it's early. They might gain share if some who did vote labour are put off by them now, and seats if labour split, but i'd be v surprised if they get to 40% let alone 50%.ydoethur said:Osborne's allies threatening May, who has a majority of 12 (16) for announcing he was sacked.
How Machiavellian do people think she is? Could she get round her general election pledge by forcing the loss of her majority, leaving government unworkable, and going to the country blaming it on posh failed chancellor Osborne's personal spite?
And if so, would she be the first PM since Baldwin to top 50% of the vote and the first since Macdonald to top 500 seats?0 -
Recovering to second place in Corbyn's heartland (or next to it) isn't too bad. At least there's the opportunity for some good barcharts in 2018. Only the Lib Dems can stop the Trots, etc.timmo said:Lets face it even though the 2 seats the LDs won in Cornwall were as a result of UKIP not putting up candidates and the one in North Norwich was because they had not put up a candidate in the previous election,it is about building a narrative for them showing they can win again no matter how insignificant the seats are. In the metropolitan areas last night they didn't do as well and continue to struggle.
0 -
I think there's a good chance it would be, as a political entity, even if there were no longer an Emperor (like modern China).Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, aye, the Eastern Empire had the rug pulled from under it by the strategic idiocy of the Fourth Crusade.
I wonder if the Empire would still be with us but for that.0 -
Angry about facts. A common problem in the puerile.JosiasJessop said:
Wow. Should I call social services on myself?Theuniondivvie said:Great dodged bullets of our time.
'Andrea Leadsom Says It Is ‘Sensible’ Not To Let Men Look After Children As They May Be Paedophiles
“As an employer we’re not, let’s face it, most of us don’t employ men as nannies, most of us don’t,” she told the paper.
“Now you can call that sexist, I call that cautious and very sensible when you look at the stats.
“Your odds are stacked against you if you employ a man. We know paedophiles are attracted to working with children. I’m sorry but they’re the facts.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h2feh7b
Very, very angry about this.0 -
There was an anecdote from the British ambassador to the EU during Major's government when David Davis was the Europe Minister. Apparently Davis kept feeding through these endless memos with elaborate policy positions he expected the ambassador to take and complex arguments he wanted him to put to the meetings. The ambassador's riposte: why not simply instruct me to say No to Everything. Clearly there's nothing on the agenda that you like.Theuniondivvie said:
There was me worrying about whether I should have restrained my sarcasm more..kle4 said:
Not really jumping the shark, it's not that much beyond the more optimistic views.Theuniondivvie said:Mash has jumped the shark here. Ridiculous to suggest this mindset exists, even satirically.
'Britain to get absolutely everything it wants from Brexit negotiations
..“But go in there British and proud, tell them ‘Full access to the single market, no immigration, and we keep all our subsidies or I’m out that door’ and they’ll cave like the continental cowards they are.
“Though obviously we do need to meet in the middle on freedom of movement. They can’t come here but I still go wherever I want. That seems fair.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h76u4ro0 -
I watched Blitz St the other day - a two part documentary replicating the impact of a variety of V weapons on a typical st/how effective a bomb shelter was/morale of those involved.david_herdson said:
Depends on what he was meaning. Mentioning 1940, Churchill told the Commons that year to "get used to it [bombing]", because it was a reality of the situation the country was in and of the task it was taking on. The crucial distinction is in what Valls left unspoken. Did he mean:ydoethur said:
Very poor choice of words, if that's not an idiomatic translation.taffys said:According to Manuel Valls, French PM, France must learn to 'live with terrorism'
Jeez....
Also reveals a remarkably defeatist mindset. As in Petain 1940 defeatist.
1. France must learn to 'live with terrorism' until we defeat it, but until then we must recognise that the bad guys will fight back,
or
2. France must learn to 'live with terrorism' because it's a feature of modern society and a price that has to be paid.
The main psychological point seemed to be that after the initial gut wrenching fear, if you survived one near/direct hit - you'd survive another. But it was about determination to survive/win.
Mr Valls is sounding like it's a way of life, not a fight. Morale is said to be on it's knees within the French policing. I hope this isn't so.0 -
The vast majority of men aren't paedophiles, and not all paedophiles are men.MonikerDiCanio said:
Angry about facts. A common problem in the puerile.JosiasJessop said:
Wow. Should I call social services on myself?Theuniondivvie said:Great dodged bullets of our time.
'Andrea Leadsom Says It Is ‘Sensible’ Not To Let Men Look After Children As They May Be Paedophiles
“As an employer we’re not, let’s face it, most of us don’t employ men as nannies, most of us don’t,” she told the paper.
“Now you can call that sexist, I call that cautious and very sensible when you look at the stats.
“Your odds are stacked against you if you employ a man. We know paedophiles are attracted to working with children. I’m sorry but they’re the facts.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h2feh7b
Very, very angry about this.0 -
sounds sensible. i still think they'd be very relevant at an early GE. who knows by 2020 if we're properly out by then and wherever labour are with themselves.Sean_F said:
It's probably about 40% ex-Conservative, 20% ex-Labour, 10% ex-Lib Dem, and the rest from people who haven't voted in a while.paulyork64 said:
but how much of the UKIP vote is actually from right of centre voters?Sean_F said:
If UKIP were to decline, it's hard to see the Conservatives failing to hit 40%. The right of centre vote in the UK as a whole is around 50%, and more like 55% in England.david_herdson said:
Yes, 50% isn't really possible without significant positive support which isn't there at the moment. 40% is certainly realistic though and could be combined with a 15% lead over Labour even without a formal split, if Corbyn simply looks incompetent and with questionable associates (something which events like today's will consistently bring back to the fore). I've not checked the figures but I'd be surprised if a 40-25 result didn't produce a 100+ Tory majority. If Labour did split into two factions, both running candidates against each other, then you could easily see a 200+ majority as Lab/SDP2/LD/UKIP/Grn trip over each other to establish themselves as the opposition to the Tories, even with some local pacts.paulyork64 said:
I'm still not getting the idea that the Tories will gain votes at the next election, especially if it's early. They might gain share if some who did vote labour are put off by them now, and seats if labour split, but i'd be v surprised if they get to 40% let alone 50%.ydoethur said:Osborne's allies threatening May, who has a majority of 12 (16) for announcing he was sacked.
How Machiavellian do people think she is? Could she get round her general election pledge by forcing the loss of her majority, leaving government unworkable, and going to the country blaming it on posh failed chancellor Osborne's personal spite?
And if so, would she be the first PM since Baldwin to top 50% of the vote and the first since Macdonald to top 500 seats?0 -
It'd be nice in theory for pure psephological reasons if everyone's vote was recorded personally and then demographic results/changes can be aggregated.Sean_F said:
It's probably about 40% ex-Conservative, 20% ex-Labour, 10% ex-Lib Dem, and the rest from people who haven't voted in a while.paulyork64 said:
but how much of the UKIP vote is actually from right of centre voters?Sean_F said:
If UKIP were to decline, it's hard to see the Conservatives failing to hit 40%. The right of centre vote in the UK as a whole is around 50%, and more like 55% in England.david_herdson said:
Yes, 50% isn't really possible without significant positive support which isn't there at the moment. 40% is certainly realistic though and could be combined with a 15% lead over Labour even without a formal split, if Corbyn simply looks incompetent and with questionable associates (something which events like today's will consistently bring back to the fore). I've not checked the figures but I'd be surprised if a 40-25 result didn't produce a 100+ Tory majority. If Labour did split into two factions, both running candidates against each other, then you could easily see a 200+ majority as Lab/SDP2/LD/UKIP/Grn trip over each other to establish themselves as the opposition to the Tories, even with some local pacts.paulyork64 said:
I'm still not getting the idea that the Tories will gain votes at the next election, especially if it's early. They might gain share if some who did vote labour are put off by them now, and seats if labour split, but i'd be v surprised if they get to 40% let alone 50%.ydoethur said:Osborne's allies threatening May, who has a majority of 12 (16) for announcing he was sacked.
How Machiavellian do people think she is? Could she get round her general election pledge by forcing the loss of her majority, leaving government unworkable, and going to the country blaming it on posh failed chancellor Osborne's personal spite?
And if so, would she be the first PM since Baldwin to top 50% of the vote and the first since Macdonald to top 500 seats?
Of course in practice completely out of order.0 -
Looks like Ben Gummer has moved up - now attending cabinet.0
-
Quite. Winning Piddleton on Puddle counts as "winning [somew]here"HappyMcFluffy said:
Recovering to second place in Corbyn's heartland (or next to it) isn't too bad. At least there's the opportunity for some good barcharts in 2018. Only the Lib Dems can stop the Trots, etc.timmo said:Lets face it even though the 2 seats the LDs won in Cornwall were as a result of UKIP not putting up candidates and the one in North Norwich was because they had not put up a candidate in the previous election,it is about building a narrative for them showing they can win again no matter how insignificant the seats are. In the metropolitan areas last night they didn't do as well and continue to struggle.
0 -
Off topic. While it might be slanted, I think this puts Leadsom in a better light. I say that as a May supporter:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/77300/andrea-leadsoms-campaign-manager-times-row0 -
But they're not facts, are they?MonikerDiCanio said:
Angry about facts. A common problem in the puerile.JosiasJessop said:
Wow. Should I call social services on myself?Theuniondivvie said:Great dodged bullets of our time.
'Andrea Leadsom Says It Is ‘Sensible’ Not To Let Men Look After Children As They May Be Paedophiles
“As an employer we’re not, let’s face it, most of us don’t employ men as nannies, most of us don’t,” she told the paper.
“Now you can call that sexist, I call that cautious and very sensible when you look at the stats.
“Your odds are stacked against you if you employ a man. We know paedophiles are attracted to working with children. I’m sorry but they’re the facts.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h2feh7b
Very, very angry about this.
She's saying some men are paedophiles, therefore no man should be allowed to look after children. What else does she extend that to?
And it's ignoring the 'fact' that women can also be paedophiles.
I also believe that Mr Leadsom is a house-husband. Did she allow him to look after their kids?0 -
Mr. F, or even with an emperor. There are plenty of monarchies in Europe (and Japan still has an emperor).
Alas.0 -
TP's gag on cows/calves was great.JosiasJessop said:
But they're not facts, are they? It's an assumption: some men are paedophiles.MonikerDiCanio said:
Angry about facts. A common problem in the puerile.JosiasJessop said:
Wow. Should I call social services on myself?Theuniondivvie said:Great dodged bullets of our time.
'Andrea Leadsom Says It Is ‘Sensible’ Not To Let Men Look After Children As They May Be Paedophiles
“As an employer we’re not, let’s face it, most of us don’t employ men as nannies, most of us don’t,” she told the paper.
“Now you can call that sexist, I call that cautious and very sensible when you look at the stats.
“Your odds are stacked against you if you employ a man. We know paedophiles are attracted to working with children. I’m sorry but they’re the facts.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h2feh7b
Very, very angry about this.
And it's ignoring the 'fact' that women can also be paedophiles.
I also believe that Mr Leadsom is a house-husband. Did she allow him to look after their kids?0 -
Only because he promised to bring chocolate biscuits.felix said:Looks like Ben Gummer has moved up - now attending cabinet.
0 -
Anyone know who will deputise for her at PMQs when needed0
-
Just a screenshot from the twitters as the link seems to be down but from the IFOP poll, Britain's European friends generally advocating an "absolutely no concessions" negotiating stance, except for the Poles, bless them.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnZhm8DXgAAAm5o.jpg:large
Obviously this won't be the position politicians will want to take, since they understand that you give concessions and get things you want in return. But the question is whether they'll have the political room to do what they think should be done, or whether they'll end up having to listen to the voters.
Britain is incredibly lucky Gordon Brown didn't ask the voters whether they were OK with the Lisbon Treaty, otherwise they'd need unanimity rather than QMV. Add that to keeping out of the Euro and the Leave people should be sending him flowers.0 -
I agree. A serious collapse in UKIP support - to 5% say - could easily result in the Tories on 45% with a favourable wind elsewhere but with quite a bit of UKIP support having come from Labour then if they don't get their act together, I could see those ex-Lab-ex-UKIP voters simply not voting; few will switch right across to the Tories.Sean_F said:
If UKIP were to decline, it's hard to see the Conservatives failing to hit 40%. The right of centre vote in the UK as a whole is around 50%, and more like 55% in England.david_herdson said:
Yes, 50% isn't really possible without significant positive support which isn't there at the moment. 40% is certainly realistic though and could be combined with a 15% lead over Labour even without a formal split, if Corbyn simply looks incompetent and with questionable associates (something which events like today's will consistently bring back to the fore). I've not checked the figures but I'd be surprised if a 40-25 result didn't produce a 100+ Tory majority. If Labour did split into two factions, both running candidates against each other, then you could easily see a 200+ majority as Lab/SDP2/LD/UKIP/Grn trip over each other to establish themselves as the opposition to the Tories, even with some local pacts.paulyork64 said:
I'm still not getting the idea that the Tories will gain votes at the next election, especially if it's early. They might gain share if some who did vote labour are put off by them now, and seats if labour split, but i'd be v surprised if they get to 40% let alone 50%.ydoethur said:Osborne's allies threatening May, who has a majority of 12 (16) for announcing he was sacked.
How Machiavellian do people think she is? Could she get round her general election pledge by forcing the loss of her majority, leaving government unworkable, and going to the country blaming it on posh failed chancellor Osborne's personal spite?
And if so, would she be the first PM since Baldwin to top 50% of the vote and the first since Macdonald to top 500 seats?
It is ironic that after decades of the left having bemoaned the inability of the so-called 'progressive majority' to make their numbers felt, had the last election been fought under PR, we'd probably have a Con-UKIP coalition now.0 -
David Liddingtonmarke09 said:Anyone know who will deputise for her at PMQs when needed
0 -
Probably, but you have to look longer term than the makeup of the "next" Gov't being something you don't like.david_herdson said:It is ironic that after decades of the left having bemoaned the inability of the so-called 'progressive majority' to make their numbers felt, had the last election been fought under PR, we'd probably have a Con-UKIP coalition now.
The point is about enfranchisement, one of Leave's big strengths - every vote counted in the EURef !0 -
I see some of the media already being sarky about Theresa May not making a statement earlier. They are going to have to learn, she will do things in her own way.
Boris Johnson doing well so far but has to stop these door step interviews. He made the amateur mistake of stopping for one more question. He needs some "professional minders."
The thought of Andrea Leadsom, or Stephen Crabb, dealing with this makes me shudder.0 -
While I don't think we should be angry, we should be trying to educate people.JosiasJessop said:
But they're not facts, are they? It's an assumption: some men are paedophiles.MonikerDiCanio said:
Angry about facts. A common problem in the puerile.JosiasJessop said:
Wow. Should I call social services on myself?Theuniondivvie said:Great dodged bullets of our time.
'Andrea Leadsom Says It Is ‘Sensible’ Not To Let Men Look After Children As They May Be Paedophiles
“As an employer we’re not, let’s face it, most of us don’t employ men as nannies, most of us don’t,” she told the paper.
“Now you can call that sexist, I call that cautious and very sensible when you look at the stats.
“Your odds are stacked against you if you employ a man. We know paedophiles are attracted to working with children. I’m sorry but they’re the facts.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h2feh7b
Very, very angry about this.
And it's ignoring the 'fact' that women can also be paedophiles.
I also believe that Mr Leadsom is a house-husband. Did she allow him to look after their kids?
I would love to teach at primary level, but the assumption seems to be that male adults who seek to interact with children are pedophiles. This is extremely off-putting.
There are something in the region of 40k registered sex offenders in the country. I don't have a split for gender. There doesn't seem to be much data on 'stranger data' - as we know most child abuse is within families and their immediate circles. Would be interested to know if any PBers have an authoritative view.0 -
How much influence do new SoS have over their team appointments? Any? Up to the PM to consult or just pick who they fancy?
May seems to have a very clear view on what she wants given the mass culling of the old regime.0 -
I was a Leadsom supporter, and I'm not convinced. From the outside it looked like she couldn't cope with being hounded by the national media. Understandable, but rather a let down for the MPs that had supported her as their candidate.John_M said:Off topic. While it might be slanted, I think this puts Leadsom in a better light. I say that as a May supporter:
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/77300/andrea-leadsoms-campaign-manager-times-row
0 -
Ah, I see. Should have guessedTheuniondivvie said:
There was me worrying about whether I should have restrained my sarcasm more..kle4 said:
Not really jumping the shark, it's not that much beyond the more optimistic views.Theuniondivvie said:Mash has jumped the shark here. Ridiculous to suggest this mindset exists, even satirically.
'Britain to get absolutely everything it wants from Brexit negotiations
..“But go in there British and proud, tell them ‘Full access to the single market, no immigration, and we keep all our subsidies or I’m out that door’ and they’ll cave like the continental cowards they are.
“Though obviously we do need to meet in the middle on freedom of movement. They can’t come here but I still go wherever I want. That seems fair.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h76u4ro0 -
Just caught Boris' response on the DP, not bad. Serious and calm. He could be good at this.0
-
No10 are flying the Tricolor. - A trivial, little thing but says so much imho.0
-
Phew.PlatoSaid said:
I spotted something on Twitter last night that said she's appointed as her main press officer Lizzie Something, previously a big wheel on Vote Leave.anotherDave said:
Guido posted a SPAD list earlier. Mrs Leadsom doesn't have any. She needs someone between her and the press!PlatoSaid said:Spotted a couple of new appts
Ben Gummer is now Paymaster General
Jeremy Wright is still AG
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/dods-people/77259/updating-live-theresa-mays
0 -
Unlikely. If something like the Fourth Crusade could do such damage then it's probable that had it not been the Venetians, someone else could and would have done later (quite possibly the Ottomans).Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, aye, the Eastern Empire had the rug pulled from under it by the strategic idiocy of the Fourth Crusade.
I wonder if the Empire would still be with us but for that.
But if it had survived the early modern period, the key question would be how it adapted to the industrial revolution. Late development - and the Orthodox countries by and large were even slower than the Catholic ones to adapt - could have proven terminal in some WWI-like conflict.0 -
That figure for coal is well out of date - lucky to get more that 5GW out of the coal plants these days. Today's grid carbon intensity is 219 kg CO2 / MWh, if anyone is interested, with only 3.3% generated from coal...sarissa said:
at average calorific values and efficiencies, about 12kg for the Nissan Leaf 30kWh battery.JonnyJimmy said:How much coal gets burnt to fully charge an EV in the UK?
The UK generates about 30% of its electricity from coal and 30% from gas, so in our energy mix about 3.6kg contribution is needed. Or you could move to Scotland where we plan to generate 100% from renewables by 2020 ( currently it is 57%).
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
http://www.ukenergywatch.org/Electricity/Realtime
0 -
From the John Harris article linked to earlier https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base
"Three decisions taken that night speak volumes about the party’s grim predicament. Whatever the whys and wherefores of that botched “coup”, there is something undeniably odd about a party leader who would apparently struggle to get the support of 51 MPs and MEPs, and the need for a vote to let him on the ballot paper regardless.
Stranger still are the new rules on who exactly can vote (which rule out people who have joined in the last six months, while apparently leaving open the possibility than they can resign their memberships, re-register as “supporters”, and then pay £25 to participate).
Finally, perhaps the most striking decision of all: the imposition of a kind of internal martial law, whereby “all normal party meetings at CLP and branch level shall be suspended until the completion of the leadership election”.0 -
Mr. Tokyo, if the EU want to play the no concessions ploy then it should come as no surprise to anyone who has thought seriously about the issue. HMG are presumably also prepared, or are least preparing, to walk away from the table and we revert to WTO. After all if you are prepared to walk away from the table then you are begging not negotiating.edmundintokyo said:Just a screenshot from the twitters as the link seems to be down but from the IFOP poll, Britain's European friends generally advocating an "absolutely no concessions" negotiating stance, except for the Poles, bless them.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnZhm8DXgAAAm5o.jpg:large
Obviously this won't be the position politicians will want to take, since they understand that you give concessions and get things you want in return. But the question is whether they'll have the political room to do what they think should be done, or whether they'll end up having to listen to the voters.
Britain is incredibly lucky Gordon Brown didn't ask the voters whether they were OK with the Lisbon Treaty, otherwise they'd need unanimity rather than QMV. Add that to keeping out of the Euro and the Leave people should be sending him flowers.0 -
Mr. M, lots of primary schools have very few, or even no, male teachers. Coupled with the decline in the nuclear family, it does raise a serious question about the male role models children have, or lack.0
-
There is always that possibility. By and large it rarely matters what system is used though; the centre-right and centre-left will always compete for power except in emergencies when the extremes might get a look in.Pulpstar said:
Probably, but you have to look longer term than the makeup of the "next" Gov't being something you don't like.david_herdson said:It is ironic that after decades of the left having bemoaned the inability of the so-called 'progressive majority' to make their numbers felt, had the last election been fought under PR, we'd probably have a Con-UKIP coalition now.
The point is about enfranchisement, one of Leave's big strengths - every vote counted in the EURef !0 -
Racing cars have made huge gains in efficiency in recent years, with a 100kg fuel limit for a 310km F1 race. It's said that most now use fewer than 90kg on most circuits, that's something like a 40% improvement on only five years ago.MaxPB said:
Yes, even if you say it's 4m² that's still pretty amazing. We also have to take into account that the ICE is only ~40% efficient. Even the highly specialised F1 ICEs are about 50% efficient, petrol is going to get replaced eventually. I thought it might be hydrogen at first, but the basic storage and transportation issues were never solved. With the Li-S batteries currently in development increasing lifecycles and power storage, plus the incredible charging times, electric vehicles are very well placed IMO. Just not Tesla who have overspent and underdelivered.rcs1000 said:
You also have to account for the fact that:MaxPB said:
A standard EV battery is 60KWh which is 60,000 x 60 x 60 = 216MJ. Natural gas produces 50MJ per kilo so it's 4.2kg of natural gas to recharge the whole battery, but since gas provides about 40% of UK energy that means 1.7kg of gas is required to recharge a battery, or ~2m².JonnyJimmy said:
Surprising current figure given that in 2015 30% of UK electricity came from coal.. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/447632/DUKES_2015_Chapter_5.pdfrcs1000 said:
Almost none. See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/JonnyJimmy said:How much coal gets burnt to fully charge an EV in the UK?
But if the current number is the new normal, how much gas is burnt to charge an EV?
- natural gas power station is only 50-60% efficient
- there are transmission losses
- there are charging losses
But even so, it's amazingly little isn't it?
The latest CCGTs are 61% efficient btw!
My favourite take on a hybrid road car remains Porsche's extraordinary 918 Spyder - 200mph and 200mpg, Laoighis not at the same time, and exempt from the Congestion Charge for its efficiency. For pure electric power, the Tesla P90D is an amazing machine, 0-60mph in only three seconds with four seats and a large boot. Cars like these two are out of range of most consumers for now, but they represent a taste of things to come in the future.0 -
I think I was 9 before I had a male teacher. This was in the sixties.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, lots of primary schools have very few, or even no, male teachers. Coupled with the decline in the nuclear family, it does raise a serious question about the male role models children have, or lack.
0 -
Is there a test match on? Honestly, I hadn't noticed, and I am someone who a decade ago used to visit Edgbaston occasionally to watch Warks and England when it was still affordable. Nowadays I'm not bothered.GeoffM said:Two wickets in an over for Woakes 310-7 and then 8
If cricket were still on terrestrial TV it would still be a national sport and played by a new generation of young people other than those attending public schools. Wind back 11 years to the 2005 Ashes and compare and contrast with the present. Never has a sport scored such an own goal.0 -
I have a vague memory that a friend of mine was part of an organised 'big brother' volunteer charity. When men volunteer to be an adopted big brother to fatherless children.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, lots of primary schools have very few, or even no, male teachers. Coupled with the decline in the nuclear family, it does raise a serious question about the male role models children have, or lack.
0 -
Indeed. The feminisation of teaching is a serious problem for society. I don't know if there's much evidence but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the rise in girls' grades relative to boys is related to the falling number of male teachers, and changing the teaching techniques and syllabuses which are themselves the result of pressure from a feminised education lobby.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, lots of primary schools have very few, or even no, male teachers. Coupled with the decline in the nuclear family, it does raise a serious question about the male role models children have, or lack.
0 -
Really hope that's just a poor translation, or words out of context. He's toast if he actually said that.ydoethur said:
Very poor choice of words, if that's not an idiomatic translation.taffys said:According to Manuel Valls, French PM, France must learn to 'live with terrorism'
Jeez....
Also reveals a remarkably defeatist mindset. As in Petain 1940 defeatist.0 -
Very thought-provoking piece on France from a few days ago:
https://medium.com/@b_judah/islam-and-the-french-republic-from-the-banlieus-to-le-pen-land-92d8a1fbf0e0#.lhlgbk3bw
Le Pen won't win next time, but she might well the time after that.0 -
Reports today that Corbyn is actively participating in deselection activities, in defiance of thisPlatoSaid said:Finally, perhaps the most striking decision of all: the imposition of a kind of internal martial law, whereby “all normal party meetings at CLP and branch level shall be suspended until the completion of the leadership election”.
The death spiral of Labour as a serious political force gathers pace0 -
I think a way forward would be to have electric cables running under/alongside motorways so that cars could recharge by induction as they drove. Obviously there would be some drain but it would significantly extend driving range between full recharges.Sandpit said:
Racing cars have made huge gains in efficiency in recent years, with a 100kg fuel limit for a 310km F1 race. It's said that most now use fewer than 90kg on most circuits, that's something like a 40% improvement on only five years ago.MaxPB said:
Yes, even if you say it's 4m² that's still pretty amazing. We also have to take into account that the ICE is only ~40% efficient. Even the highly specialised F1 ICEs are about 50% efficient, petrol is going to get replaced eventually. I thought it might be hydrogen at first, but the basic storage and transportation issues were never solved. With the Li-S batteries currently in development increasing lifecycles and power storage, plus the incredible charging times, electric vehicles are very well placed IMO. Just not Tesla who have overspent and underdelivered.rcs1000 said:
You also have to account for the fact that:MaxPB said:
A standard EV battery is 60KWh which is 60,000 x 60 x 60 = 216MJ. Natural gas produces 50MJ per kilo so it's 4.2kg of natural gas to recharge the whole battery, but since gas provides about 40% of UK energy that means 1.7kg of gas is required to recharge a battery, or ~2m².JonnyJimmy said:
Surprising current figure given that in 2015 30% of UK electricity came from coal.. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/447632/DUKES_2015_Chapter_5.pdfrcs1000 said:
Almost none. See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/JonnyJimmy said:How much coal gets burnt to fully charge an EV in the UK?
But if the current number is the new normal, how much gas is burnt to charge an EV?
- natural gas power station is only 50-60% efficient
- there are transmission losses
- there are charging losses
But even so, it's amazingly little isn't it?
The latest CCGTs are 61% efficient btw!
My favourite take on a hybrid road car remains Porsche's extraordinary 918 Spyder - 200mph and 200mpg, Laoighis not at the same time, and exempt from the Congestion Charge for its efficiency. For pure electric power, the Tesla P90D is an amazing machine, 0-60mph in only three seconds with four seats and a large boot. Cars like these two are out of range of most consumers for now, but they represent a taste of things to come in the future.0 -
Mr. Dave, that sounds like an excellent idea.
Mr. Mark, I was fortunate to go to a school with a 50/50 split, but that's pretty unusual.
Mr. Herdson, jein. The Fourth Crusade occurred during the disastrous Angeli dynasty. Had the Comneni or a Basil II been in charge it would have failed.0 -
I think it would be a mistake to see the whole of UK politics through the Leave-Remain spectrum. There are loads of other important issues.David_Evershed said:Lib Dems winning in LEAVE Cornwall despite being most pro REMAIN party.
Must be just local candidate and circumstances not a systemic swing.
The four Lib Dem gains all came in or just next to areas where they previously had a Lib Dem MP. A lot of people are bitterly regretting the advent of a 100% Tory Government, and looking back with nostalgia to when there was a good Lib Dem MP.0 -
Blue_rog said:Sandpit said:MaxPB said:
A modern version of the water troughs that used to run next to railway lines so that steam engines could replenish their water tanks on the move.rcs1000 said:
Racing cars have made huge gains in efficiency in recent years, with a 100kg fuel limit for a 310km F1 race. It's said that most now use fewer than 90kg on most circuits, that's something like a 40% improvement on only five years ago.MaxPB said:
Yes, even if you say it's 4m² that's still pretty amazing. We also have to take into account that the ICE is only ~40% efficient. Even the highly specialised F1 ICEs are about 50% efficient, petrol is going to get replaced eventually. I thought it might be hydrogen at first, but the basic storage and transportation issues were never solved. With the Li-S batteries currently in development increasing lifecycles and power storage, plus the incredible charging times, electric vehicles are very well placed IMO. Just not Tesla who have overspent and underdelivered.JonnyJimmy said:
Surcs1000 said:
Almost none. See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/JonnyJimmy said:How much coal gets burnt to fully charge an EV in the UK?
- there are charging losses
But even so, it's amazingly little isn't it?
The latest CCGTs are 61% efficient btw!
My favourite take on a hybrid road car remains Porsche's extraordinary 918 Spyder - 200mph and 200mpg, Laoighis not at the same time, and exempt from the Congestion Charge for its efficiency. For pure electric power, the Tesla P90D is an amazing machine, 0-60mph in only three seconds with four seats and a large boot. Cars like these two are out of range of most consumers for now, but they represent a taste of things to come in the futu
I think a way forward would be to have electric cables running under/alongside motorways so that cars could recharge by induction as they drove. Obviously there would be some drain but it would significantly extend driving range between full recharges.
N.B. They didn't have them on hills!0 -
I'm going to get flamed for this, but frankly I've had a gut full of symbolic trivia that achieves Eff All.SimonStClare said:No10 are flying the Tricolor. - A trivial, little thing but says so much imho.
There's a predictable cycle:
1. Terrorist attack
2. Twitter grief/ghoulish interest
3. #JeSuisWhatever and #PrayForWhatever
4. Changing your avatar to a rainbow flag or Tricolour
5. Light up Eiffel Tower, HoP and candle light vigils
6. Media apologists
7. Claims of increased hate crimes
8. Lessons must be learned
9. Rinse and repeat
/rantover0 -
Oh crap, hadn't noticed there was a match on!Wulfrun_Phil said:
Is there a test match on? Honestly, I hadn't noticed, and I am someone who a decade ago used to visit Edgbaston occasionally to watch Warks and England when it was still affordable. Nowadays I'm not bothered.GeoffM said:Two wickets in an over for Woakes 310-7 and then 8
If cricket were still on terrestrial TV it would still be a national sport and played by a new generation of young people other than those attending public schools. Wind back 11 years to the 2005 Ashes and compare and contrast with the present. Never has a sport scored such an own goal.
*checks weather forecast*
Lay the draw!0 -
Agree with every word of thisWulfrun_Phil said:
Is there a test match on? Honestly, I hadn't noticed, and I am someone who a decade ago used to visit Edgbaston occasionally to watch Warks and England when it was still affordable. Nowadays I'm not bothered.GeoffM said:Two wickets in an over for Woakes 310-7 and then 8
If cricket were still on terrestrial TV it would still be a national sport and played by a new generation of young people other than those attending public schools. Wind back 11 years to the 2005 Ashes and compare and contrast with the present. Never has a sport scored such an own goal.0 -
But they weren't. A state's enemies might only need it to be unlucky (or useless) once. A well-built political structure can be remarkably resilient to incompetence but I'm not sure that by the 13th century, the Eastern Empire's was all that well-built.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dave, that sounds like an excellent idea.
Mr. Mark, I was fortunate to go to a school with a 50/50 split, but that's pretty unusual.
Mr. Herdson, jein. The Fourth Crusade occurred during the disastrous Angeli dynasty. Had the Comneni or a Basil II been in charge it would have failed.0 -
the system does feel self-correcting. we went from 3 figure tory to 3 figure labour majorities in two elections. do big majorities just encourage governments to try and pull things too far away from the centre until joe public says no.david_herdson said:
There is always that possibility. By and large it rarely matters what system is used though; the centre-right and centre-left will always compete for power except in emergencies when the extremes might get a look in.Pulpstar said:
Probably, but you have to look longer term than the makeup of the "next" Gov't being something you don't like.david_herdson said:It is ironic that after decades of the left having bemoaned the inability of the so-called 'progressive majority' to make their numbers felt, had the last election been fought under PR, we'd probably have a Con-UKIP coalition now.
The point is about enfranchisement, one of Leave's big strengths - every vote counted in the EURef !0 -
Ironically i believe the vast majority of sex offenders are from withing the family.John_M said:
While I don't think we should be angry, we should be trying to educate people.JosiasJessop said:
But they're not facts, are they? It's an assumption: some men are paedophiles.MonikerDiCanio said:
Angry about facts. A common problem in the puerile.JosiasJessop said:
Wow. Should I call social services on myself?Theuniondivvie said:Great dodged bullets of our time.
'Andrea Leadsom Says It Is ‘Sensible’ Not To Let Men Look After Children As They May Be Paedophiles
“As an employer we’re not, let’s face it, most of us don’t employ men as nannies, most of us don’t,” she told the paper.
“Now you can call that sexist, I call that cautious and very sensible when you look at the stats.
“Your odds are stacked against you if you employ a man. We know paedophiles are attracted to working with children. I’m sorry but they’re the facts.”'
http://tinyurl.com/h2feh7b
Very, very angry about this.
And it's ignoring the 'fact' that women can also be paedophiles.
I also believe that Mr Leadsom is a house-husband. Did she allow him to look after their kids?
I would love to teach at primary level, but the assumption seems to be that male adults who seek to interact with children are pedophiles. This is extremely off-putting.
There are something in the region of 40k registered sex offenders in the country. I don't have a split for gender. There doesn't seem to be much data on 'stranger data' - as we know most child abuse is within families and their immediate circles. Would be interested to know if any PBers have an authoritative view.0 -
Only ever a binary choice isn't itpaulyork64 said:
the system does feel self-correcting. we went from 3 figure tory to 3 figure labour majorities in two elections. do big majorities just encourage governments to try and pull things too far away from the centre until joe public says no.david_herdson said:
There is always that possibility. By and large it rarely matters what system is used though; the centre-right and centre-left will always compete for power except in emergencies when the extremes might get a look in.Pulpstar said:
Probably, but you have to look longer term than the makeup of the "next" Gov't being something you don't like.david_herdson said:It is ironic that after decades of the left having bemoaned the inability of the so-called 'progressive majority' to make their numbers felt, had the last election been fought under PR, we'd probably have a Con-UKIP coalition now.
The point is about enfranchisement, one of Leave's big strengths - every vote counted in the EURef !
0 -
It is absolutely bizarre that there seem to be no standing orders relating to the conduct of a leadership election or who can vote in them, and even more so that the NEC is effectively putting retrospective rules in place after the election has started. I know "rule of law" is not a concept generally associated with socialists, but you really don't want your country ruled by people who not only behave like this but think it's normal.PlatoSaid said:From the John Harris article linked to earlier https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base
"Three decisions taken that night speak volumes about the party’s grim predicament. Whatever the whys and wherefores of that botched “coup”, there is something undeniably odd about a party leader who would apparently struggle to get the support of 51 MPs and MEPs, and the need for a vote to let him on the ballot paper regardless.
Stranger still are the new rules on who exactly can vote (which rule out people who have joined in the last six months, while apparently leaving open the possibility than they can resign their memberships, re-register as “supporters”, and then pay £25 to participate).
Finally, perhaps the most striking decision of all: the imposition of a kind of internal martial law, whereby “all normal party meetings at CLP and branch level shall be suspended until the completion of the leadership election”.0 -
Could someone please make my day and confirm that Anna Soubry and Matt Hancock were sacked?
I hope "George's friends" will learn their lesson and not resort to plotting on the backbenches.0 -
Mr. Herdson, the Empire was always highly dependent on whoever was in the top job. After Manuel there were two short-lived Comneni emperors then a run of incompetent Angeli (one of whom, at least, co-operated with the Fourth Crusade initially and may even have invited it to try and claim the throne).0
-
For many years married women were not allowed to teach primary classes -my mother was one who had to give up. This is why until fairly recently kids would put up their hand and say 'Please Miss!'MarqueeMark said:
I think I was 9 before I had a male teacher. This was in the sixties.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, lots of primary schools have very few, or even no, male teachers. Coupled with the decline in the nuclear family, it does raise a serious question about the male role models children have, or lack.
0 -
We'd several male teachers at my 70s primary. Mr Simpson was my favourite - he was very tall, thin and funny. He didn't fanny about and spent PE lessons in rainy weather teaching us boxing moves in the Assembly Hall. He didn't care whether we were boys or girls.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, lots of primary schools have very few, or even no, male teachers. Coupled with the decline in the nuclear family, it does raise a serious question about the male role models children have, or lack.
I seriously doubt his sort would be allowed today. I thought he was wonderfully liberating.0 -
This is curious. BBC are reporting:
Local media: 'Attacker was married with three children'
Posted at 12:32
France's BFMTV reports, citing police sources and locals, that the attacker was married and had three children. He was not very religious, it says.
BMTV has also tweeted that he "did not fully observe Ramadan this year, according to his neighbours".0 -
And these are the "moderates" on the Labour side. Really, it can't die quickly enough.JohnLilburne said:
It is absolutely bizarre that there seem to be no standing orders relating to the conduct of a leadership election or who can vote in them, and even more so that the NEC is effectively putting retrospective rules in place after the election has started. I know "rule of law" is not a concept generally associated with socialists, but you really don't want your country ruled by people who not only behave like this but think it's normal.0 -
I am due to be going to Lords on Sunday so if it rains all day today no complaints hereSandpit said:
Oh crap, hadn't noticed there was a match on!Wulfrun_Phil said:
Is there a test match on? Honestly, I hadn't noticed, and I am someone who a decade ago used to visit Edgbaston occasionally to watch Warks and England when it was still affordable. Nowadays I'm not bothered.GeoffM said:Two wickets in an over for Woakes 310-7 and then 8
If cricket were still on terrestrial TV it would still be a national sport and played by a new generation of young people other than those attending public schools. Wind back 11 years to the 2005 Ashes and compare and contrast with the present. Never has a sport scored such an own goal.
*checks weather forecast*
Lay the draw!0 -
So are Labour going to propose re-entry into the EU at the GE? Seems mental to me. Re-entry is going to involve taking up the Euro and Schengen. There is no way the EU would allow us to keep our current opt-outs and vetoes if we rejoined. They hate the fact that we cause so many problems.0
-
Members can now hold meetings:Pulpstar said:
And these are the "moderates" on the Labour side. Really, it can't die quickly enough.JohnLilburne said:
It is absolutely bizarre that there seem to be no standing orders relating to the conduct of a leadership election or who can vote in them, and even more so that the NEC is effectively putting retrospective rules in place after the election has started. I know "rule of law" is not a concept generally associated with socialists, but you really don't want your country ruled by people who not only behave like this but think it's normal.
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/labour-members-can-hold-some-meetings-despite-the-ban/0 -
Blue_rog said:
Yes, we need to see trials of this sort of technology on highways. Will be expensive to implement though, and would require some sort of a billing system on the cars.Sandpit said:
I think a way forward would be to have electric cables running under/alongside motorways so that cars could recharge by induction as they drove. Obviously there would be some drain but it would significantly extend driving range between full recharges.MaxPB said:
Racing cars have made huge gains in efficiency in recent years, with a 100kg fuel limit for a 310km F1 race. It's said that most now use fewer than 90kg on most circuits, that's something like a 40% improvement on only five years ago.rcs1000 said:
Yes, even if you say it's 4m² that's still pretty amazing. We also have to take into account that the ICE is only ~40% efficient. Even the highly specialised F1 ICEs are about 50% efficient, petrol is going to get replaced eventually. I thought it might be hydrogen at first, but the basic storage and transportation issues were never solved. With the Li-S batteries currently in development increasing lifecycles and power storage, plus the incredible charging times, electric vehicles are very well placed IMO. Just not Tesla who have overspent and underdelivered.MaxPB said:
You also have to account for the fact that:JonnyJimmy said:
K energy that means 1.7kg of gas is required to recharge a battery, or ~2m².rcs1000 said:
Almost none. See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/JonnyJimmy said:How much coal gets burnt to fully charge an EV in the UK?
- natural gas power station is only 50-60% efficient
- there are transmission losses
- there are charging losses
But even so, it's amazingly little isn't it?
The latest CCGTs are 61% efficient btw!
My favourite take on a hybrid road car remains Porsche's extraordinary 918 Spyder - 200mph and 200mpg, Laoighis not at the same time, and exempt from the Congestion Charge for its efficiency. For pure electric power, the Tesla P90D is an amazing machine, 0-60mph in only three seconds with four seats and a large boot. Cars like these two are out of range of most consumers for now, but they represent a taste of things to come in the future.
For the UK, as opposed to the US, a car with a 400 mile range (c. London to Edinburgh or Glasgow) should be sufficient, any further and the driver stopping for a decent break should be the limiting factor. A 50 mile section of the M6 or M1 for your induction loop would make this possible.0 -
Some good results for Farron showing the LDs are at last rebuilding their local government base.
O/T Terrible news from Nice and will increase further demands for tighter border controls0 -
Well, my Tesla Model S has a theoretical range of 240 miles, but I find it really does more like 200. (That being said, if I were on the motorway the entire time it would probably be closer to 300.)JonnyJimmy said:
So looking at around 5kg of gas, plus all the other sources used?rcs1000 said:
You also have to account for the fact that:MaxPB said:
A standard EV battery is 60KWh which is 60,000 x 60 x 60 = 216MJ. Natural gas produces 50MJ per kilo so it's 4.2kg of natural gas to recharge the whole battery, but since gas provides about 40% of UK energy that means 1.7kg of gas is required to recharge a battery, or ~2m².JonnyJimmy said:
Surprising current figure given that in 2015 30% of UK electricity came from coal.. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/447632/DUKES_2015_Chapter_5.pdfrcs1000 said:
Almost none. See: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/JonnyJimmy said:How much coal gets burnt to fully charge an EV in the UK?
But if the current number is the new normal, how much gas is burnt to charge an EV?
- natural gas power station is only 50-60% efficient
- there are transmission losses
- there are charging losses
But even so, it's amazingly little isn't it?
How far can it go on one charge?
I can go around a hundred miles on three kilos of diesel
The point about natural gas, though, is that it is:
(a) inexpensive
(b) incredibly abundant
(c) much more efficient (in therms of joules of energy converted to motion) than the internal combustion engine
(d) cleaner burning (very little particulate matter)
and
(e) available from a wide variety of countries, many of whom don't hate us (Canada, Australia, the US, Norway, Ireland)0 -
That was the case beforerottenborough said:
Members can now hold meetings:Pulpstar said:
And these are the "moderates" on the Labour side. Really, it can't die quickly enough.JohnLilburne said:
It is absolutely bizarre that there seem to be no standing orders relating to the conduct of a leadership election or who can vote in them, and even more so that the NEC is effectively putting retrospective rules in place after the election has started. I know "rule of law" is not a concept generally associated with socialists, but you really don't want your country ruled by people who not only behave like this but think it's normal.
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/labour-members-can-hold-some-meetings-despite-the-ban/0 -
Labour have basically admitted that there are so many thugs and bullies operating in CLPs that they have had to suspend meetings for the leadership campaign.
This is no longer a functioning democratic political party.0 -
Please stop repeating the nonsense re: Schengen and the Euro. Just as our leaving will be a custom deal with pragmatic concessions from Germany and France, so would our entry. Joining the Euro could be easily avoided by adopting the same strategy as the Scandinavian countries, i.e. refrain from joining ERMII.MaxPB said:So are Labour going to propose re-entry into the EU at the GE? Seems mental to me. Re-entry is going to involve taking up the Euro and Schengen. There is no way the EU would allow us to keep our current opt-outs and vetoes if we rejoined. They hate the fact that we cause so many problems.
0
