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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs gain four seats in their best night of local by-electio
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs gain four seats in their best night of local by-elections for at least a decade
Wibsey (Lab defence) on Bradford
Result: Labour 1,207 (51% +9%), United Kingdom Independence Party 655 (27% -12%), Conservative 451 (19% +5%), Liberal Democrat 70 (3% -2%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 552 (24%) on a swing of 10.5% from UKIP to Lab
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A poor night for Labour and UKIP.
And thanks Harry,
Edit: and first.
Apparently the boos he received at the french embassy were from Brits. The french applauded.
twitter.com/ladylilo2/status/753689008442597376
Mr. Dave, on a national basis, no. But in certain areas, the purples are a threat to Labour.
UKIP cause Labour problems by locking them out of working class seats in the Home Counties, if nothing else.
Only a little mind you ....
They need a new leader, some time to recharge and a strategy. I hope Woolfe gets the gig - Labour are clearly losing the plot in a serious way and very vulnerable.
Vote LibDem You Know It Makes Sense ....
For JackW's wallet ....
Lib Dems, spinning here.
A new leader may change things, but right now I'm not seeing it.
It's interesting: the smaller the constituency, the better the LibDems do, and the worse UKIP does. When the constituency is big (the Euros, for example) this is reversed.
An apology would be a start.
Where's Labour's apology for introducing tuition fees in the first place, and then increasing them despite a manifesto pledge not to?
They didn't win the 2010 election and therefore were not in a position to implement the tuition fee policy and by going into Coalition they helped to provide five years of stable government. A further bonus was the end of the dreadful Gordon Brown administration.
Whilst in 2015 the electorate were brutal to the LibDems I for one am grateful for the part they played in the 2010-15 government.
Will be interesting to see whether the possible uptick in local elections (which has been apparent to some degree for a while), is reflected in the national polls. Again, there's been a little evidence that there might be a comeback underway - which frankly, given the splits in the Tories and Labour, there ought to be - but that evidence is mixed and while Mori scored them ahead of UKIP recently for the first time since September (by anyone), another pollster found them on only 4%, which was their lowest score in any poll since the early 1990s.
I cant imagine Nigel Farage will be able to resist a comeback, but if he does restrain himself, he and UKIP would have timed it just right.
Leave 'em laughing!
It'll be interesting to see how history views the 2010-15 coalition government. I reckon it'll be better than hey were viewed at the time.
But if the current number is the new normal, how much gas is burnt to charge an EV?
There is no leadership "vacuum" for the Cons, Greens or Lib Dems.
Well, as we all know - that strategy came totally unstuck when they had to deliver on their apple pie manifesto.
What Kippers can learn from this is anyone's guess. Be more coherent? Play the same game and hope to never end up in Coalition? Seek to pick up local seats and still operate as a serious Five Star style pressure group?
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/753881243113123840
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/753881589025734656
The referendum was lost because the case for being in the EU was lost, perhaps many years ago. Remaining in even after the case was lost would have just lead to more problems.
The decision's been made. Let's get on with it.
The coalition killed that pillar of support.
They need that anti Tory vote back. After 10 years in govt, that is the rich seam to mine.
So they need to make it clear that this time, they will not prop them up.
Not that I partake, of course. Mobile gaming reached its zenith when Nero had a tabula board on his chariot.
The Fair Trade Movement memorably broke itself up in 1895 before achieving its goals, because they thought they were making tariffs less likely not more likely.
Perhaps UKIP should remember their example.
70% of the new PM’s cabinet were state-educated - 44% at comprehensive schools and 26% at grammar schools. At 30%, the proportion of independently-schooled ministers is at its lowest since the government of Labour’s Clement Attlee in 1945 with 25%.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jul/15/theresa-may-to-meet-nicola-sturgeon-for-union-talks-politics-live
A lot of water has to flow under a lot of bridges before we are out.
Turning to the Lib Dems. Surely their abiding challenge is that they can't realistically hope to form a majority government? They will have to enter coalition II at some point. Therefore positioning is both important and incredibly difficult.
They had the rationale of the 2008 collapse to justify entering coalition with the Tories. It will be much harder for them next time.
Its another example of something I'm seeing in many places; change is needed, but I can't see how that necessary change will be effected.
Not really a surprise. They held it before but inexplicably did not field a candidate last time leaving a paper Conservative candidate to take the seat. With Norman Lamb, one of the rare LibDem MPs and not this time conflicted by (health) minister duties as part of the coalition, it was always one that they would have sought to regain.
One thing you can say about North Norfolk LibDems is that they are very mobile. The local Tories less so, what with their walking sticks and all.
I wouldn't read that much into it. Local factors rather than national Renaissance
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot reporting from the Cote d'Azur, where the penny seems to be dropping Amongst the locals that perhaps Mrs May's QUALIFIED Freedom of Movement might have some merit after all
How Machiavellian do people think she is? Could she get round her general election pledge by forcing the loss of her majority, leaving government unworkable, and going to the country blaming it on posh failed chancellor Osborne's personal spite?
And if so, would she be the first PM since Baldwin to top 50% of the vote and the first since Macdonald to top 500 seats?
Where he got the grenades and guns is another matter.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/manuel-comnenus-man-who-lost-byzantium.html
You can argue that current migration from Muslim countries isn't helping, and that Schengen doesn't help national CT efforts. Still, the fundamental issue is that sections of the Muslim community are de-integrating from their host country, for a whole range of complex reasons.
I would suggest "Independent Democrats", and much could then be made of "iD" as its symbol, and "Identity" as it's cause. Maybe then they could merge some of the Labour Leave posse, disenchanted with both Corbyn and Blairites, with the Farage side of UKIP
Ellis Peters frequently wrote about cars being used as murder weapons (not in the Cadfaels, obviously!) because she thought they gave an everyday immediacy to her books.
It isn't difficult for intelligent and imaginative people to convert everyday items into fearsome weapons. Various plant sprays spring to mind, as does petrol. The will to do it is all that is needed, and sadly that seems far too common.
*He did say that on 13/11/01 though, so treat with caution.
We'll see how things play out.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech916.pdf
She's calling a General Election anyway
- natural gas power station is only 50-60% efficient
- there are transmission losses
- there are charging losses
But even so, it's amazingly little isn't it?