politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It has to be May
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It wasn't accidentally a pitch for voters rather than members. It was quite deliberately so.PlatoSaid said:
I'm the same. It sounded very Heathite.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm.
May might have made a substantial misstep. Shifting soft-left to sweep up ex-Labour voters makes sense, in an electoral way. It does not make sense when trying to become leader and appeal to Conservative Party members.
Perhaps she expects Leadsom to end her campaign shortly?0 -
Whilst May's speech might be pitched to win the centre ground in a general election, she has surely lost the support of many Conservative members with her socialist ideas.0
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I agree that constant moaning is boring and pointless. We are where we are, but it does no harm to hold the Leave side to account for the promises that were made during the campaign. On a personal level, I am well over it. I am not going to fall out with family and friends who voted Leave. Life is far too short for that.CD13 said:Mr Observer,
The Remainers do themselves no favours by continually moaning. Had we voted Remain, I would have accepted it. In fact, just before midnight on June 23rd, seeing the betting market, I shook the hands of a Remainer friend. When he saw me again, he was accepting, as I expected him to be.
I'm meeting a few old gits in the pub tonight - a mix of Remainers and Leavers and we'll have a pint and a laugh. Even the Welshman who was a committed Remainer. I sent him an e-mail after the verdict congratulating his fellow Taffs. Just like Rourkes Drift, I said, the Welsh peering through the mealie bags and calling out in a loud voice. "Europeans, farsands of 'em".
I was about to say that the sun is still shining, but that would be a little Leadsomite CV-ish.
Still if it's between the two Tory women for PM, I'd slightly prefer Andrea - you won't get bored to death.
I hope Labour can pull out of their death spiral but it's not looking good.0 -
@bbclaurak: Source tells me Leadsom to pull out at 12 - not confirmed0
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Boris must be absolutely going mental0
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She put off answering the question, then waffled/ummed and looked shifty. It wasn't an answer with any substance.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The area of immigration is the one part of policy and actions that Mrs May ought to have a very clear idea of what she is going to do. It is also one of the top issues that the members will assess her on.PlatoSaid said:May didn't convince me at all over FoM. Very wobbly answer.
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To be fair she was unlikely to impress you but she will appeal to a very wide electorate. This speech was very much her own work and views and it's content was very acceptablePlatoSaid said:
Must disagree - it sounded like it was written by Cameron's people in CCHQ.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I dont think she cares. I think she is saying - this is what I stand for, if thats not what you want dont vote for me.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm.
May might have made a substantial misstep. Shifting soft-left to sweep up ex-Labour voters makes sense, in an electoral way. It does not make sense when trying to become leader and appeal to Conservative Party members.
It didn't tickle me much.0 -
Labour are screwed now - finished - ended.
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!!!!!Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Source tells me Leadsom to pull out at 12 - not confirmed
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Ha, ha. So farewell then Andrea Leadsom. Has May offered her a big role in her government or has she finally realised that this whole thing was well beyond her pay grade?0
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I think quite a few experienced people like Rodcrosby have said campaigns don't make a difference.FrancisUrquhart said:Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong
By analysing 121 opinion polls, Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley outline what happened with the EU referendum survey results. They explain why internet surveys performed substantially better than telephone ones – contrary to the post-2015 General Election ‘wisdom’ that telephone surveys should be preferred. Underlying trends showed that once methodological artefacts are controlled, Leave was almost certainly ahead of Remain over the entire last month of the campaign – and possibly throughout 2016.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/eu-referendum-polls/
If their analysis is correct, it sounds again a bit like that the campaigns and all the twists and turns and ups and down and media outcries and politicians bloopers, probably mean the square root of f##k all. It was claimed the same last year and also 2010, that there was no late swing, that the little changed throughout the last month despite all the noise.0 -
leadsom pulling out. May still 1.23 on Betfair.
Edit: That didn't last long! Filled my boots.0 -
Have to say, I wasn't impressed by 'workers in the boardroom' et al. It sounded like Ed Miliband.David_Evershed said:Whilst May's speech might be pitched to win the centre ground in a general election, she has surely lost the support of many Conservative members with her socialist ideas.
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Maybe she's realised that she really isn't cut out for the role of PM. Crying after a silly interview hardly shows you're ready for the top job.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Source tells me Leadsom to pull out at 12 - not confirmed
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I'll have a Roberts iPad please.David_Evershed said:John_M said:
In fairness nunu, it has put a bomb under the economy. We just don't know how big it is yet.nunu said:A bomb under our economy.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-36763212
All our economic figures, all the deals are from pre-Brexit activity. Economies (other than daft things like open ended property funds) don't spin on a sixpence, especially one as complex as the UK.
Just one example. John Lewis complained about the slide in sterling as much of what it sells comes from abroad. However, its hedged against currency movements until 2017. Therefore any ill effects are temporarily postponed.
Gives John Lewis time to find UK suppliers to substitute for imports from abroad.
Sorely needed to reduce the trade deficit.0 -
If Leadsom pulls out, the markets should respond very positively.0
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Dyson products are currently made abroad.Scott_P said:
Yes, they should sell more great British brands like Dyson...David_Evershed said:Gives John Lewis time to find UK suppliers to substitute for imports from abroad.
Sorely needed to reduce the trade deficit.
But following the change in exchange rates Dyson might bring some manufacturing back to the UK.0 -
Cue the Leadsomites "we don't know what May stands for" now complaining that they do know what May stands for.....Scott_P said:
@DPJHodges: Theresa May presenting herself as the Get May candidate, not the Stop Leadsom candidate. Important.Paul_Bedfordshire said:I dont think she cares. I think she is saying - this is what I stand for, if thats not what you want dont vote for me.
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Congratulations to Andrea for capitulating early expediting pay-out.I feel for those whose loins pre-empted their brains and lumped on Andrea.0
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Leadsom quitting now reported on BBC Five Live.
As was said, just too inexperienced for the job at this time. How people thought she was the better bet I just can't get my head around.0 -
I commented a while back here that if Leadsom felt she stood little chance, her best chance either personally or in terms of securing a Brexiteer as PM would be to pull out but with the proviso that if there were undue delay in triggering Article 50 then she would be open to mounting or supporting a new leadership challenge. I wonder if she'll say something to that effect and set a timescale. That would really put the pressure on May to get on with it.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Source tells me Leadsom to pull out at 12 - not confirmed
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Of what I heard of May's speech I heard a lot of stuff about giving people opportunities and "setting people free." Well that's fine, but with opportunity comes responsibility. I don't want to go all back to basics but it would be nice to have a Tory PM that doesn't seek to indulge all our wants.0
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BBC reporting Andrea "can't handle the abuse"0
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Bloody hell I'm supposed to be watching Ghostbusters in a bit.0
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Not that it matters now, but I'm putting together the results of my weekend poll. Should be ready in an hour or so. Might have some insight as to why Leadsom looks like quitting.0
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Everyone should check Ladbrokes...0
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Swear box at Mr Banks's office taking a hammering I assume
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I'd add to this that JL does source many its products in the UK. Place like Primark which in effect exist for disposable clothing made in Asia may find their prices more challenging. I suppose that they can push the currency effect onto their suppliers but given what they pay, there'll only be limited scope there.matt said:
I'll have a Roberts iPad please.David_Evershed said:John_M said:
In fairness nunu, it has put a bomb under the economy. We just don't know how big it is yet.nunu said:A bomb under our economy.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-36763212
All our economic figures, all the deals are from pre-Brexit activity. Economies (other than daft things like open ended property funds) don't spin on a sixpence, especially one as complex as the UK.
Just one example. John Lewis complained about the slide in sterling as much of what it sells comes from abroad. However, its hedged against currency movements until 2017. Therefore any ill effects are temporarily postponed.
Gives John Lewis time to find UK suppliers to substitute for imports from abroad.
Sorely needed to reduce the trade deficit.0 -
May 1.03 , AL 25s
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So Murdoch's Times and Sun can say Gotcha to Leadsom.0
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If she does quit she has my fullest respect and hopefully will serve in cabinetstjohn said:If Leadsom pulls out, the markets should respond very positively.
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Some confusion about whether they need to put someone else back on the ballot. My guess is not0
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Managed to escape from a Leadsom position by the skin of my teeth. Nearly rather expensive.
Lol, she'd better actually pull out now.0 -
She did well in a couple of debates, but really she makes Jim Hacker look like a good choice as PM.Thrak said:Leadsom quitting now reported on BBC Five Live.
As was said, just too inexperienced for the job at this time. How people thought she was the better bet I just can't get my head around.0 -
Let's hope Theresa doesn't prove as big a disaster as I suspect she will...0
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Argh, suspended on Ladbrokes already. Those quick-fingered fellows.
They're much laxer at updating on F1, thankfully.0 -
Got to pour yourself a coffee and by the time you come back everything's changed.0
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Gove's 601....0
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Mr M,
"We were lucky to have inflation (inflation is a young person's friend and an old person's enemy) to ameliorate high interest rates."
High interest rates?
We have no mortgage or rent to pay now and no children to pay for (and grandchildren are in Australia, so baby-sitting duties are very light.
We're cash-poor, but we don't need much - because we don't spend much.
Stuffing our mouths with Gold? Hardly.0 -
Sometimes rumours turn out not to be so, I've been stung for very minor amounts on various Premiership manager markets before.Morris_Dancer said:Argh, suspended on Ladbrokes already. Those quick-fingered fellows.
They're much laxer at updating on F1, thankfully.0 -
Personally I campaigned for yes - did you? I did repeated street stalls and spoke directly to punters about what they thought - did you? I went door knocking seeking out waverers that we could swing to Remain - did you?Jobabob said:
Wrong. It's your lies that the change would work out better for them that won it. My WWC mother-in-law voted Leave because it was "time for a change". Change to what? £350m extra a week for the NHS. Your campaign was built on pure lies. Sandy Rentool admitted on here he pushed that leaflet through Labour voters' letterboxes knowing full well it was a lie.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh dear, its the "we know your lives better than you peons do" argument again. I'm not going to recant the referendum again but people voted to leave because they saw the status quo as not working for them. Thats not comfortable for people who are the status quo hence calling voters Racist and Stupid.Jobabob said:Not really the time for narrow party political advantage – the country is desperate for stability and to get us into the EEA quick sharp so the economy can stablise. Thanks to you and your brethren from the loon eurosceptic left wing of the Labour Party, who helped pull us out of Europe and put they futures of a generation under threat, most moderates will be popping the Champagne corks should May win. At least she is vaguely sensible.
The party who accepts that people know their lives better than establishment politicians do AND actually start to pay attention to them is going to clean up in the election.
Shameful. The lot of you.
But yes. People did vote for change. You are telling you MIL that she is stupid. That she believed lies. Exactly how arrogant are you to know her life better than she does?
I know that democracy is a terrifying concept for the establishment. But the referendum gave millions of people their first ever vote that actually counted. They turned out en masse. And said "fuck you" to arrogant types like your good self.0 -
Theo Bertram
So, Prime Minister Theresa May & Labour leader Corbyn will now both have the same message: if you voted New Labour, then go join the Tories0 -
People out there who voted for Brexit thinking they were going to get a bold, free, open trading economy are going to be extremely disappointed. It's going to be all bipartisan protectionist Local Shops For Local People.TGOHF said:0 -
New PM by tonight ?0
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Having a "corporatist" or "Heathite" agenda when the government directly controls a tiny percentage of the economy is a very different matter than when the government controlled utilities car manufacturers steel and so on....0
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What it does mean is that we will have a new PM this month and a honeymoon polling bounce in late July showing regular double digit Conservative leads over Corbyn-led Labour just as the latter goes into a leadership election.Scott_P said:@STJamesl: If Leadsom quits could May call an election before Labour can dump Corbyn???
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Seems odd, why the confusion? - 5 contenders, one left standing = winner.Scott_P said:Some confusion about whether they need to put someone else back on the ballot. My guess is not
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Just blown Angela Eagle launch out of the water.
Does Dave get his removals today0 -
Labour won't dump Corbyn. But if there is an early GE it means Corbynite CLPs will not be able to deselect their MPs either. That will see Corbyn leading Labour to a pasting and then returning to the Commons where the majority of those Labour MPs that remain do not have any confidence in him. Frankly, I can think of worse scenarios.Scott_P said:@STJamesl: If Leadsom quits could May call an election before Labour can dump Corbyn???
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The Louis Van Gaal out by New Year's Day bet was good for you.Pulpstar said:
Sometimes rumours turn out not to be so, I've been stung for very minor amounts on various Premiership manager markets before.Morris_Dancer said:Argh, suspended on Ladbrokes already. Those quick-fingered fellows.
They're much laxer at updating on F1, thankfully.0 -
I hope so, I want my money from Billy Hills.Big_G_NorthWales said:Just blown Angela Eagle launch out of the water.
Does Dave get his removals today0 -
Leadsom to pull out, good on her.0
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UKIP possibly form a minority government after a Lab/Con meltdown in 2020?edmundintokyo said:
People out there who voted for Brexit thinking they were going to get a bold, free, open trading economy are going to be extremely disappointed. It's going to be all bipartisan protectionist Local Shops For Local People.TGOHF said:0 -
Leaps? On a graph with four decimal places? GTFO Bloomberg.Scott_P said:0 -
Quite pleased I included that tip in the leader now. Hope you got on.Scott_P said:Leadsom making a statement at noon. Guido says quitting
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I honestly believe that if the Tories were in opposition, like when they chose IDS, this might be close. But they aren't and it won't be. This is no time to take more chances. We have already played that card.0
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Will she be joining UKIP? ;-)Thrak said:Leadsom quitting now reported on BBC Five Live.
As was said, just too inexperienced for the job at this time. How people thought she was the better bet I just can't get my head around.0 -
Leadsom has proven herself to be a decent and honourable woman.0
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Rules say 2 candidates go to the members. Those ballots have not gone out, so are they obliged to send them with a different name?SimonStClare said:Seems odd, why the confusion? - 5 contenders, one left standing = winner.
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If May thinks she can win on her record as Home Secretary, she could struggle. The best her friends seem to say about that time is that she has not done so badly that she had to resign, or be sacked. And that really is the sum total of her appeal.
The 'reluctant challenger' has the gig because of a couple of sensible speeches. But that is two more than May has managed in a long political career.
I suspect that even May supporters would not want her to have an overwhelming victory. Right now, she thinks she is more able than she is.0 -
Mensch tweets will be fun. Will be furious and remember "she always gets what she wants"TheScreamingEagles said:New PM by tonight ?
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It was. But that was due to Paddy Power's profligacy more than anything.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Louis Van Gaal out by New Year's Day bet was good for you.Pulpstar said:
Sometimes rumours turn out not to be so, I've been stung for very minor amounts on various Premiership manager markets before.Morris_Dancer said:Argh, suspended on Ladbrokes already. Those quick-fingered fellows.
They're much laxer at updating on F1, thankfully.0 -
If Leadsom is quitting May should become PM asap. Ridiculous for Cameron to hang on for longer than a few days.0
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So Gove could take her place?0
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Bingo. I'm still savouring the whining from the likes of Bob.RochdalePioneers said:I know that democracy is a terrifying concept for the establishment. But the referendum gave millions of people their first ever vote that actually counted. They turned out en masse. And said "fuck you" to arrogant types like your good self.
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Mr Observer,
Well said.
What's the worst that can happen? Jezza as PM? Well, it wouldn't be boring.
I don't see an easy way out for Labour. The PLP won't stomach a Trot, so it's down to Jeremy to pick up the pearl-handled revolver, the whisky, and head for the library. But he won't.0 -
Just more than a little out of her depth....Pulpstar said:Leadsom has proven herself to be a decent and honourable woman.
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I can't see it - Gove wants to fight as the candidate less popular than Leadsom with MPs ?Scott_P said:
Rules say 2 candidates go to the members. Those ballots have not gone out, so are they obliged to send them with a different name?SimonStClare said:Seems odd, why the confusion? - 5 contenders, one left standing = winner.
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I think the party membership would have preferred to have their say. No chance now of coursePulpstar said:Leadsom has proven herself to be a decent and honourable woman.
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Let's hope the Leadsom rumour is true. I bear her no ill will, but she is spectacularly out of her depth here, and of course, never wanted the job she's ended up in the shortlist for - all thanks to the monumental fuck-up by Mr and Mrs Gove, and Boris's bungling incompetence.
Could Cameron and May respectively go to the Palace today? No need to delay any further, let's get on with sorting this mess out.
Add Mrs Leadsom to the unintended leadership contestants seeking to convince the winner of their credentials yet overreaching their own expectations - alongside Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn...0 -
Who would put themselves forward now ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Miss Plato, that seems to be the key question. I'd guess not, but we'll see.
If Leadsom does withdraw today and Gove does not become the second second candidate, when does May become PM?0 -
Would Gove even want to step into the breach? I'd have thought not, he has even less chance than Leadsom, everyone is getting bored with this.0
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might be a stupid question, but are the bets still on?? or do they become void if Leadsome pulls out?0
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I'd really like to see the members get a choice, if only to show May has their support. A coronation would seem rather dangerous in the long term.TheScreamingEagles said:New PM by tonight ?
On the other hand, the country really needs the new PM sooner rather than later.0 -
@MrHarryCole: The Home Secretary has cut short her national tour and has returned to London.
I think it's over0 -
Gove. Mike got on him at 600/1. After I told him to do so.Pulpstar said:
Who would put themselves forward now ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Maybe someone could step out the shadows and scupper the establishment one last time?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I don't blame her at all, she clearly figured out quickly that she was out of her depth and needed to gain experience before maybe trying again. She had the self knowledge but it's the people who looked at her and thought that she was a good bet that are unfathomable.Pulpstar said:Leadsom has proven herself to be a decent and honourable woman.
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No one has been more critical as I have since her Times interview but she has absolutely done the decent and honourable action and must be in the new cabinetPulpstar said:Leadsom has proven herself to be a decent and honourable woman.
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Get to ur family!TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell I'm supposed to be watching Ghostbusters in a bit.
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Bets on next leader/PM won't be void. Bets on vote share presumably will.FrankMuller said:might be a stupid question, but are the bets still on?? or do they become void if Leadsome pulls out?
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The Mensch is backing May - it's over.0
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Leadsom's statement has leaked...
@seanjonesqc: Leadsom: I said I was quitting the race and then a malicious press twisted it by saying I was quitting. Which is the opposite of what ...Etc0 -
I'm not a fan of political coronations, but surely May should become PM in the next few days.Richard_Nabavi said:Would Gove even want to step into the breach? I'd have thought not, he has even less chance than Leadsom, everyone is getting bored with this.
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1200hrs Leadsom drops out
1201hrs Theresa May kicks Article 50 into the longest grass she can find0 -
So it's 1 - 1 now in the Establishment vs the Plebs. Seems about right, I suppose.0
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I believe Charlie falconer is availablePulpstar said:
Who would put themselves forward now ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Gove seems like the sort of man who has enough self regard to believe he could still win.Richard_Nabavi said:Would Gove even want to step into the breach? I'd have thought not, he has even less chance than Leadsom, everyone is getting bored with this.
Also it depends if there is a strategic reason why a delay in getting a new PM is important. Is a delay useful in allowing negotiating lines to be drawn up and informally sounded out in Europe?
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I'm quite happy to be Theresa May's opponent.GIN1138 said:
Maybe someone could step out the shadows and scupper the establishment one last time?TheScreamingEagles said:
Might be the route to finally to get that peerage.0
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